2017: Europe’s Bumper Year of Elections Published by European University Institute (EUI) Via dei Roccettini 9, I-50014 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI) Italy First Published 2018 ISBN:978-92-9084-715-1 doi:10.2870/66375 © European University Institute, 2018 Editorial matter and selection © Brigid Laffan, Lorenzo Cicchi, 2018 Chapters © authors individually 2018 This text may be downloaded only for personal research purposes. Any additional reproduction for other purposes, whether in hard copies or electronically, requires the consent of the European Governance and Pol- itics Programme. If cited or quoted, reference should be made to the full name of the author(s), editor(s), the title, the year and the publisher. Views expressed in this publication reflect the opinion of individual authors and not those of the European University Institute. 2017: Europe’s Bumper Year of Elections EDITED BY Brigid Laffan Lorenzo Cicchi AUTHORS Rachid Azrout Anita Bodlos Endre Borbáth Enrico Calossi Lorenzo Cicchi Marc Debus James Dennison Martin Haselmayer Laurenz Ennser-Jedenastik Haylee Kelsall Romain Lachat Thomas M. Meyer Elie Michel Wolfgang C. Müller Ferdinand Müller-Rommel Thomas Poguntke Richard Rose Tobias Rüttenauer Johannes Schmitt Julia Schulte-Cloos Joost van Spanje Bryan Synnott Catherine E. de Vries European University Institute, Florence, Italy Table of Contents Acknowledgements viii Preface ix The Contributors xiii Part 1 – Thematic and Comparative Chapters The Crisis, Party System Change, and the Growth of Populism 1 Thomas Poguntke & Johannes Schmitt Waning Public Support for International Cooperation? Some Lessons from Europe 25 Catherine E. de Vries Explaining the Rise of Anti-Immigration Parties in Western Europe 47 James Dennison Isolated and Imitated? Voter Perceptions of Reactions to Anti-Immigration Parties in Three Countries 65 Joost van Spanje, Haylee Kelsall & Rachid Azrout BREXIT: A Referendum Vote with a Contested Outcome 91 Richard Rose ‘United in Diverse Campaigns’: The 2019 Spitzenkandidaten Process, Procedural Solidarity and Party Diversity 109 Brian Synnott Part 2 – Country-Specific Chapters When the Post-Communist Left Succeeds: The 2016 Romanian Parliamentary Election 133 Endre Borbáth The Austrian Election of 2017: An Election Won in the Long Campaign 151 Anita Bodlos, Laurenz Ennser-Jedenastik, Martin Haselmayer, Thomas M. Meyer & Wolfgang C. Müller Portfolio Allocation and the Selection of Ministers After the 2017 National German Election 173 Ferdinand Müller-Rommel Pariah Parties, Policy Profiles and Party Politics in a Multilevel System: Coalition Formation in Germany, 2017–2018 189 Marc Debus A Transformation from Within? Dynamics of Party Activists and the Rise of the German AfD 207 Julia Schulte-Cloos & Tobias Rüttenauer Associative Issue Ownership and Candidate Preferences in the 2017 French Presidential Election 223 Romain Lachat The Front National in the 2017 French Election: An Electoral Impasse? 241 Elie Michel Reconfiguration of the Italian Party System, 2013–2018: A Two-Stage Political Earthquake? 257 Lorenzo Cicchi & Enrico Calossi Conference Programme 285 VIII Acknowledgements We would like to thank all the people and institutions that have helped to make the conference and the book possible. Our special thanks go to Stefano Bartolini, Monique Cavallari, Renaud Dehousse, Giorgio Giam- berini, Simon Watmough, the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies and the European University Institute. IX Preface The European Union (EU) as it surpasses the 60th Anniversary of the signing of the Rome Treaty is experiencing considerable turbulence arising from a pronounced increase in uncertainty, risk and contingency both within the region, the neighbourhood and globally. Dynamics of disorder and disintegration compete with pressures for further func- tional integration in many spheres. Domestic politics in the member states are volatile as challenger parties transform electoral politics and party systems. Government formation and governing has become more difficult in hard times. The rise of parties that combine an anti-migration and anti-EU platform have exposed the growth of Euroscepticism among Europe’s electorates. There is a mismatch between functional pressures for further integration and the capacity to supply collective policies. The future of the EU is being questioned in ways that would have been incon- ceivable as recently as 2008. This has been brought sharply into focus fol- lowing the UK vote to leave. The Trump Presidency in the US in the first two years has proven to be an administration that is openly hostile to the European Union. Faced with these challenges, public opinion in EU27 is nonetheless becoming more favourable to the EU and the Austrian Pres- idential election in December 2016 have demonstrated that support for the EU can be successfully mobilized. When the European Union welcomed its new members in May 2004 in what was the most extensive enlargement in its history, those gathered at Dublin Castle, had reason to be optimistic about Europe’s Union. The EU had played a central role in easing the transition from a divided con- tinent and a divided Germany to a Union that was continental in scale. The addition of 12 new states by 2007 transformed the geographic reach of the Union and underpinned its centrality as the core European institu- tion above the level of the state. European regionalism, characterised by a wide policy remit and deep institutionalisation, seemed robust and resil- ient. What a difference a decade makes? Since Autumn 2009, just over seven years, the Union has been beset by multiple crises and the opti- X Preface mism of spring 2004 has morphed into deep pessimism and a weakening of confidence that the Union can address its challenges and remain a vital part of the European state system. Internal EU divergence and tension is exacerbated by wider global transformations. Europe’s intertwined crises have unsettled many assumptions about the European Union. Gone are the assumptions that exit will never happen because it is too expensive or that EU governments have an institutional self-interest in the preservation of integration at any cost. Gone too is the hypothesis that crises have a rejuvenating effect on the EU. Moreover, entrenched integration paradigms such as ‘integration through law’ or stealth have been exposed to politicisation. Domestic, regional and global transformations require a new research focus on the Union and its future. For these reasons, the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies at the European University Institute has launched, at the beginning of 2018, the European Governance and Politics Programme (EGPP), an international hub of high-quality research and reflection on the Euro- pean Union. The programme builds on the successful experience of the European Union Democracy Observatory (EUDO) which positioned the Robert Schuman Centre and the EUI at the forefront of research on the EU between 2006 and 2016. EUDO was organised on the basis of four Observatories which conducted a series of externally funded research projects, offered a platform for the dissemination of research via e-books and the EUDO Working Paper series, archived data at the EURO Data Centre, fostered engagement on EUDO Café and held an annual dissem- ination conference. The EGPP retains and develops many of EUDO’s features in the framework of a multi-disciplinary approach. The core of its activities is funded by external research projects, that in turn foster the publication of research-led working papers, policy papers and pub- lications in scientific journals. The EGPP also promotes engagement on contemporary issues through various events, including blog debates and thematic conferences and workshops. Each year it hosts an annual con- ference that focuses on a crucial theme for the European Union. The inaugural annual conference was held on 8-9 March 2018 at the European University Institute campus in Florence, Italy and focused on 2017 as Europe’s “bumper year” of elections. This year saw a wave of key elections all across Europe, starting with the Dutch general election in March. France followed soon after, with the first round of its presidential XI election in April, and the second round in May. In September, Germany held federal elections, with the position of Chancellor a focal point of the campaign; Austrian, Romanian and UK citizens also went to the polls at the end of 2016 and during this turbulent year. This edited volume contains a selection of the papers presented during the EGPP launch conference and is divided in two parts. The first part is composed by a series of four thematic chapters that focus on key political and electoral developments of 2017 in various countries, in addition to two chapters devoted to Brexit and to the European elections to be held in May 2019. Thomas Poguntke and Johannes Smith reflect on the rela- tionship between party system change and the growth of populism. Cath- erine de Vries’ contribution focuses on Europe’s waning public support for international cooperation. James Dennison gives an explanation to the rise of anti-immigration parties in Western Europe. Joost van Spanje, together with Haylee Kelsall and Rachid Azrout also focus on anti-immi- gration parties, by looking at voter perceptions of reactions to these par- ties in three countries (France, Germany and the Netherlands). Richard Rose’s chapter is devoted to the “contested outcome” of the Brexit ref- erendum, and finally Brian Synnott’s contribution discusses