EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS Pocketbook 2016/17 European Vehicle Market Statistics 2016/17 Statistics Market Vehicle European International Council on Clean Transportation Europe Neue Promenade 6 10178 Berlin +49 (30) 847129-102 [email protected] www.theicct.org ICCT Table of Contents 1 Introduction 2 2 Number of Vehicles 14 3 Fuel Consumption & CO2 26 4 Technologies 42 5 Key Technical Parameters 52 6 Other Emissions & On-road 68 Annex Remarks on Data Sources 72 List of Figures and Tables 74 References 78 Abbreviations 80 Tables 81 An electronic version of this Pocketbook including more detailed statistical data is available online: http://eupocketbook.theicct.org EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS 2016/17 1 INTRODUCTION Market share EU-28 Registrations (million) in 2015 (in %) Fig. 1-1 16 100 Passenger cars: 90 14 Registrations by Others The 2016/17 edition of European Vehicle Market SUV/ 80 vehicle segment Of-Road 12 Statistics ofers a statistical portrait of passenger car, Van Sport 70 light commercial and heavy-duty vehicle fleets in Luxury 10 Upper 60 the European Union (EU) from 2001 to 2015. Medium Medium As in previous editions, the emphasis is on vehicle 8 50 techno logies, fuel consumption, and emissions of Lower 40 greenhouse gases and other air pollutants. 6 Medium The following pages give a concise overview 30 4 of data in subsequent chapters and also summarize 20 Small the latest regulatory developments in the EU. 2 10 More comprehensive tables are included in the annex, Mini 0 0 along with information on sources. 01 10 07 02 03 04 05 06 09 008 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 2 20 Number of vehicles Data source: ACEA; data until 2007 is for EU-25 only After declining for several years, new passenger car registrations in the EU increased to about 13.7 million in 2015. That number is 12"% below where The European market remains centered on it was before the economic crisis, when some a handful of countries. Some 75"% of all new passenger 15.6 million cars were sold annually in the EU, but at car registrations occur in the five largest markets the same time it represents 1 million more vehicles (Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, sold than just one year before, in 2014. The decline in and Spain). But in terms of makes and manufacturers, vehicle sales after the economic crisis was most the market is much more diverse: the top seven pronounced for the southern EU Member States. brands capture less than 50"% of the market. In Spain, the number of new car registrations has fallen This is very diferent from the heavy-duty vehicle by about 50"% since 2007. But vehicle sales in market. Only five manufacturer groups dominate the region are rising again; 2015 regis trations in Spain EU truck sales. Together they account for nearly 100"% were about 20"% above the previous year and of all new vehicle registrations (0.4 million vehicles at the highest level since 2008. in 2015). In contrast to some other heavy-duty vehicle By far the strongest growth in vehicle sales markets, the same manufacturer usually makes took place in the sport utility vehicle (SUV) segment. both the vehicle and its engine in Europe. Therefore, More than 3 million new cars in 2015 were SUVs, the heavy-duty engine market in Europe is or about three times as many as 10 years before. also dominated by the same five manufacturers. In 2016 the European Commission provided evidence for cartel behavior among heavy-duty truck manu- facturers in Europe, finding them guilty of price fixing as well as delaying the introduction of emission- reduction technologies and issuing a record penalty of €$2.93 billion. 2 3 EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS 2016/17 1 Introduction Internationally, total vehicle sales (passenger ment, including a 2025 target range of 68–78 g/km cars and commercial vehicles) increased at a of CO2. In November 2013, a final compromise somewhat slower pace than in 2014. While Turkey, was reached, and the regulation was formally adopted Mexico, South Korea, the EU, India, the United in March 2014. States, and China saw robust growth, sales were flat Under the new EU regulation, only 95"% of or declined in Australia, Canada, Malaysia, Japan, the new vehicle fleet must comply with the 95 g/km Thailand, Indonesia, Brazil, and Russia. Total vehicle target by 2020 (Mock, 2014a). After one year sales in Turkey increased by 25"%, while vehicle of phase-in, from 2021 all new vehicles will be taken sales in Russia dropped by 35"% in 2015. Over the past into account for calculating manufacturers’ fleet five years much of the growth was concentrated averages. CO2 emission targets for every manufacturer in just two countries, China and the United States, are adjusted for the average weight of their which together accounted for 50"% of global specific vehicles, so that manufacturers of heavier vehicle sales. Growth outside the top 15 markets vehicles get a less stringent target to meet. accelerated: car and truck sales in those smaller In percentage terms, the required reduction is the markets increased by 3"%, while the average vehicle same for every manufacturer: 27"% from 2015 sales growth rate in the top 15 markets was to 2020/21. So-called super-credits for vehicles closer to 2"%. Emerging market economies with very with CO2 emissions lower than 50 g/km are high growth in the past few years – Brazil, Russia, also taken into account: these vehicles count double and Thailand – continued to experience declines in in 2020, with the multiplier factor reduced to sales in 2015. 1.0 by 2023 (Diaz et al., 2016). Fuel consumption and CO2 emissions Fuel consumption (liters/100 km) The ofcial level of average carbon dioxide (CO2) Fig. 1-2 50 emissions from new passenger cars in the EU, Comparison of as measured in the laboratory test procedure, fell to tractor-trailer fuel 120 grams per kilometer (g/km) in 2015 (EEA, 2016). 45 consumption This is significantly lower than the 130 g/km target set trends for U.S. and EU by the EU CO2 regulation for 2015. CO2 emissions and fuel consumption are directly linked, so that the 40 http://goo.gl/Jt1t19 current level of emissions amounts to about 5.0 liters/100 km. 35 In 2012, the European Commission formally proposed an average CO2 emissions target of 95 g/km for 2020, which in terms of fuel consumption 30 equates to about 3.8 liters/100 km. Details of the proposal had been under discussion in the European 25 Parliament and the European Council in the first 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 half of 2013, with the European Parliament proposing Model year EU real-world testing US Phase 1 reductions some changes to the European Commission docu- US regulatory baseline US Phase 2 reductions 4 5 EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS 2016/17 1 Introduction Light commercial vehicles (i."e., commercial Market share (new sales) of electric passenger cars Fig. 1-3 vehicles below 3.5 metric tons gross vehicle weight) 2015 2012–2015 sales of Norway 2014 have their own CO2 emission standard. The 2017 2013 2012 electric vehicles target requires an average fleet emission level of http://goo.gl/8xsNQu 175 g/km – a level that was reached in 2013. Netherlands A new regulation setting a 2020 target of 147 g/km was adopted in February 2014. As for passenger California cars, vehicle weight is taken into account Sweden when calculating manufacturer-specific CO2 targets. For heavy-duty vehicles, the on-road fuel Denmark consumption (and thereby also CO2 emission) level of new tractor-trailer trucks in the EU has re mained US fairly constant since the early 2000s (Muncrief (incl. California) and Sharpe, 2015). Over the last few years, the Euro- pean Commission has developed VECTO, France a com puter simulation tool to determine CO2 emission levels of new heavy-duty vehicles. The Commission United Kingdom expects that this new tool will provide greater China transparency and better comparability for CO2 emis- sion performance and fuel consumption of trucks and buses. The EU is the only major truck market in Austria the world without a CO2 emission regulation (Muncrief, 2014). However, as part of its communi ca- Germany tion on de-carbonizing the road vehicle sector, Full battery electric vehicles Japan the European Commission announced in July 2016 Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles to work towards the introduction of mandatory 05 10 15 20 25 efciency standards for new heavy-duty vehicles, in % with the objective of “curbing emissions well before 2030” (EC, 2016). The market share of hybrid-electric vehicles in the EU was 1.5"% of all new car sales in 2015. Technologies In the Netherlands (3.3"%) and France (2.2"%) The vast majority of Europe’s new cars remain hybrid vehicles make up a much larger share of the powered by gasoline or diesel motors. Diesel market than in the rest of EU Member States, cars account for 52"% of all new registrations in 2015. with fewer hybrid vehicles sold in the Netherlands This is despite the recent “Dieselgate” scandal than in previous years, due to a change in and difers notably from other major car markets. the national vehicle taxation scheme. More than The U.S., Chinese, and Japanese markets are one-fourth of all new Toyotas sold in the EU all dominated by gasoline-powered cars, with diesels were hybrid-electric. For comparison, in Japan playing almost no role. One market of note that more than 19"% of all new car sales in 2015 has embraced diesel technology, however, is India, were hybrids, and in the U.S.