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Regional Observations During the Landfall of Tropical Cyclone Juliette (2001) in Baja California, Mexico

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Regional Observations During the Landfall of Tropical Cyclone Juliette (2001) in Baja California, Mexico JULY 2004 FARFA N 1575 Regional Observations during the Landfall of Tropical Cyclone Juliette (2001) in Baja California, Mexico LUIS M. FARFA N Unidad La Paz, Centro de InvestigacioÂn Cientõ®ca y de EducacioÂn Superior de Ensenada B.C., Baja California Sur, Mexico (Manuscript received 8 August 2003, in ®nal form 9 January 2004) ABSTRACT This paper presents an observational analysis of tropical cyclone landfall over the eastern Paci®c Ocean. The tropical cyclone that developed during the 2001 season off the Mexican coast was named Juliette and made landfall in the Baja California peninsula. Juliette approached land over the southwestern peninsula, and the evolution of a localized region of cyclonic circulation occurred over the Gulf of California. The storm passage was associated with extensive property damage to the population in the southern peninsula, with most of the damage caused by heavy rainfall and strong winds. The intensity of the circulation associated with Juliette indicates that this was a strong system in the record of landfall during the period 1992±2002. All available sources of observations are collected to investigate characteristics of the circulation motion and structure. In situ observations, including surface and upper-air data, are applied to document the evolution of storm ¯ow while the center was located near and over the southern peninsula. Imagery from a geostationary satellite is used to determine characteristics of convective patterns. The analysis indicates development of distinct bands of deep convection and a period of slow system motion, which are related to large precipitation. Low- level winds are used to identify characteristics of the incident circulation along the Paci®c coast. However, the nocturnal nature of the event and the lack of observations at critical times limit the attempts to explain how the incident circulation is associated with that observed over the gulf the next morning. 1. Introduction in terms of an anticyclone being located over central Mexico. This implies midlevel steering ¯ow with a me- Our current understanding on the life cycle of tropical ridional component forcing northward storm motion cyclones in the eastern Paci®c Ocean has progressed along the west coast of Mexico. Smith (1986) docu- signi®cantly in the last decades. It is known that these mented the penetration of cyclones into the southwest- cyclones tend to form in a limited area south of Mexico ern United States and found that while these storms and west of Central America. While intensi®cation oc- move in the area, synoptic-scale circulations, embedded curs, the systems follow a direction roughly parallel to the large-scale ¯ow and along the southwest coast of in the westerly ¯ow, approached the western coast of Mexico. However, some of them experience substantial North America. deviations and they may acquire a northerly component In order to illustrate general characteristics of tropical to move toward the continent. This situation becomes cyclone landfall in Baja California, storm evolution is a potential threat to the population over western Mexico, analyzed with data compiled from the National Hurri- including the Baja California peninsula. The peninsula cane Center (NHC) for the eastern Paci®c basin. This has a coastal length of approximately 3600 km, which is known as the best-track database and is constructed represents 31% of the total coast in Mexico, and this during a postseason analysis using several observational fact indicates that the peninsula requires special atten- sources. The best track provides center position, max- tion. imum sustained wind speed at 10 m, and minimum sea According to a study performed by Allard and Pe- level pressure for the duration of each system (e.g., terson (1987), 14% of tropical cyclones developing in Avila et al. 2003). According to Jarvinen et al. (1984), the eastern Paci®c made landfall along the west coast this should be considered as the best estimate of the of Mexico, and 58% of them occurred in Baja Califor- large-scale storm motion rather than a precise track of nia. Allard and Peterson explained the northward tracks the storm. Because of a lack of in situ observations over water and coastal areas in the eastern Paci®c, there is strong dependence on satellite products for the esti- Corresponding author address: Dr. Luis M. FarfaÂn, Centro de In- vestigacioÂn Cientõ®ca y de EducacioÂn Superior de Ensenada B.C., mation of storm position and intensity. Unidad La Paz, Mira¯ores 334, La Paz 23050, BCS, Mexico. Figure 1 shows tracks of tropical cyclones that E-mail: [email protected] crossed Baja California during the period 1992±2002. q 2004 American Meteorological Society Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/06/21 02:11 PM UTC 1576 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 132 FIG. 1. Best-track positions for tropical cyclones making landfall in Baja California during the period 1992±2002. The positions are at 6-h time intervals, and labels next to the name indicate date (year/ month/day) in which each system is ®rst located over land. The heavy black line indicates positions for Juliette (2001). An outstanding feature to note is the existence of a preferred area of landfall over the west coast. This was documented by Latorre and Penilla (1988) in a study of systems that approached the area in the period 1960± 79. The study indicates that the majority of arrivals were from lower latitudes in the Paci®c and the ®rst contact with land occurred in the southern or central peninsula. An exception to the meridional approach in Fig. 1 is Hurricane Calvin (1993), which approached the area from an easterly direction. According to the descriptive FIG. 2. Mean geopotential heights (dam) at the 500-mb level from summary for Calvin (Avila and May®eld 1995), the the NCEP±NCAR reanalysis for selected cases from Fig. 1. Times hurricane hit the southern coast of Mexico and arrived are at (a) 2 days prior to and (b) during the day of landfall. Contour at the peninsula as a weakening tropical storm. interval is 1.5 dam, and the dots indicate mean position of tropical Latorre and Penilla (1988) presented the ®rst publi- cyclones from the best-track data. cation that examines characteristics of storm passage near Baja California. Data from this study were used to determine that 60% of 30 storms occurred in the month search (NCEP±NCAR) reanalysis (Kalnay et al. 1996). of September, 20% in August, and 17% in October. This Note that the reanalysis has a horizontal resolution of is in agreement with results from Allard and Peterson approximately 210 km, which implies that the data are (1987), who concluded that September is the primary able to resolve large-scale circulations and, thus, provide month for recurvature in the eastern Paci®c during the limited representation of tropical cyclones. In order to period 1966±80. In fact, note that the events shown in avoid contamination from nontypical cases and focus Fig. 1 tend to occur in September or late August. In on past events, data relative to Calvin (1993) and Juliette this ®gure, the author indicates the date in which the (2001) have been excluded. The results from our com- system center is ®rst detected over land in the best-track putations are shown in Fig. 2 as geopotential heights 2 records. days prior to landfall (Fig. 2a) and during the day of General features of tracks followed by landfalling the event (Fig. 2b). The 500-mb level is selected because systems may be explained by the structure of the large- of the known relation between storm motion and geo- scale, environmental ¯ow and the application of the strophic ¯ow in the middle troposphere (e.g., Dong and steering concept (e.g., Elsberry 1995). Based on this Neumann 1986). framework, we estimate mean storm motion by using According to Fig. 2a, the location of storms is near data derived from the National Centers for Environ- Socorro Island (18.78N, 110.98W) a couple of days be- mental Prediction±National Center for Atmospheric Re- fore landfall and occurs while a wave trough propagates Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/06/21 02:11 PM UTC JULY 2004 FARFA N 1577 to the west coast of the United States. In addition, there sequence of events associated with the landfall of Ju- is an anticyclonic circulation located east of the island liette are presented in section 3. Section 4 provides a and centered over the Atlantic Ocean. A weak gradient discussion of data analysis and compares results with of height contours south of Baja California suggests the respect to previous landfall events in the peninsula. Fi- presence of light steering winds, which is consistent nally, a summary is given in section 5. with slow storm motion within the zonal band 18.08± 22.08N in Fig. 1. Mean heights at landfall (Fig. 2b) consist of an anticyclone over the mainland of Mexico 2. Data and the trough west of the peninsula. This de®nes a southwest±northeast orientation of height contours and The geographical area of interest in this study is the stronger gradients, which is associated with faster north- Baja California peninsula, which is surrounded by the eastward motion at landfall (Fig. 1). Furthermore, Paci®c Ocean and Gulf of California. Since the main heights after landfall (not shown) indicate that the effects of Juliette occurred in the southern peninsula, trough has moved to the east during the next few days, we concentrate our attention on the state of Baja Cal- and this results in the advection of storm remnants into ifornia Sur (BCS). This area is shown in Fig. 3 along the southwestern United States. with a representation of the terrain at 4-km resolution. In a study of satellite-derived precipitation in the east- The western portion of BCS is covered with ¯at, low- ern Paci®c, Rodgers et al.
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