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Fall 2006 OKLAHOMA CLIMATE
OKLAHOMA CLIMATE Fall 2006 Anything But Pacific Loss Mitigation Conference 2006 EarthStorm Teachers on the Road Cloud Seeding MESSAGE FROM THE EDITOR Table of Contents Hurricanes are the most destructive weather phenomenon on the Earth, with Anything But Pacific..........................................3 apologies to our own little terrors of Mother Nature, tornadoes. The awful Oklahoma Climate & Loss Mitigation Conf. .......6 destruction wrought upon the Gulf Coast by Katrina silenced any arguments on that subject. But in one of the great ironies for a state that has suffered greatly Answers to the Classroom Activity.................7 due to hazardous weather, Oklahoma has actually benefited in the past from the arrival of those monster cyclones. They are no longer Hurricanes by the time they Photos From the Field.....................................8 pass over Oklahoma soil, of course, merely remnants of their former powerful selves. When they do arrive, however, they bring with them a sizable amount of EarthStorm Teachers On the Road...............10 tropical moisture. Imagine a gigantic sponge floating over the state, waiting to be squeezed. And if there is ever a time that the state could use a good wallop Summer 2006 Climate Summary.................14 of moisture, it’s during the type of drought we’ve experienced the last couple of Agriculture Weather Watch............................19 years. Urban Farmer..................................................20 We decided to concentrate this issue of “Oklahoma Climate” on hurricanes and their effects on the state. Our historical perspective delves right into the issue Classroom Activity...........................................21 with a look back at Oklahoma’s previous brushes with tropical cyclones and how they’ve helped to end droughts. -
Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific Ab Sins Nicholas S
Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Master's Theses Graduate School March 2019 Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific aB sins Nicholas S. Grondin Louisiana State University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses Part of the Climate Commons, Meteorology Commons, and the Physical and Environmental Geography Commons Recommended Citation Grondin, Nicholas S., "Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific asinB s" (2019). LSU Master's Theses. 4864. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/4864 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Master's Theses by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. CLIMATOLOGY, VARIABILITY, AND RETURN PERIODS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE STRIKES IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC BASINS A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in The Department of Geography and Anthropology by Nicholas S. Grondin B.S. Meteorology, University of South Alabama, 2016 May 2019 Dedication This thesis is dedicated to my family, especially mom, Mim and Pop, for their love and encouragement every step of the way. This thesis is dedicated to my friends and fraternity brothers, especially Dillon, Sarah, Clay, and Courtney, for their friendship and support. This thesis is dedicated to all of my teachers and college professors, especially Mrs. -
Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
FLORIDA HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS 1871-1995: An Historical Survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams '+wcCopy~~ I~BN 0-912747-08-0 Florida SeaGrant College is supported by award of the Office of Sea Grant, NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce,grant number NA 36RG-0070, under provisions of the NationalSea Grant College and Programs Act of 1966. This information is published by the Sea Grant Extension Program which functionsas a coinponentof the Florida Cooperative Extension Service, John T. Woeste, Dean, in conducting Cooperative Extensionwork in Agriculture, Home Economics, and Marine Sciences,State of Florida, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture, U.S. Departmentof Commerce, and Boards of County Commissioners, cooperating.Printed and distributed in furtherance af the Actsof Congressof May 8 andJune 14, 1914.The Florida Sea Grant Collegeis an Equal Opportunity-AffirmativeAction employer authorizedto provide research, educational information and other servicesonly to individuals and institutions that function without regardto race,color, sex, age,handicap or nationalorigin. Coverphoto: Hank Brandli & Rob Downey LOANCOPY ONLY Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms 1871-1995: An Historical survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams Division of Marine and Environmental Systems, Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne, FL 32901 Technical Paper - 71 June 1994 $5.00 Copies may be obtained from: Florida Sea Grant College Program University of Florida Building 803 P.O. Box 110409 Gainesville, FL 32611-0409 904-392-2801 II Our friend andcolleague, Fred Doehringpictured below, died on January 5, 1993, before this manuscript was completed. Until his death, Fred had spent the last 18 months painstakingly researchingdata for this book. -
REVIEW the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones. Part I
VOLUME 145 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW NOVEMBER 2017 REVIEW The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Cyclone Evolution and Direct Impacts a b c d CLARK EVANS, KIMBERLY M. WOOD, SIM D. ABERSON, HEATHER M. ARCHAMBAULT, e f f g SHAWN M. MILRAD, LANCE F. BOSART, KRISTEN L. CORBOSIERO, CHRISTOPHER A. DAVIS, h i j k JOÃO R. DIAS PINTO, JAMES DOYLE, CHRIS FOGARTY, THOMAS J. GALARNEAU JR., l m n o p CHRISTIAN M. GRAMS, KYLE S. GRIFFIN, JOHN GYAKUM, ROBERT E. HART, NAOKO KITABATAKE, q r s t HILKE S. LENTINK, RON MCTAGGART-COWAN, WILLIAM PERRIE, JULIAN F. D. QUINTING, i u v s w CAROLYN A. REYNOLDS, MICHAEL RIEMER, ELIZABETH A. RITCHIE, YUJUAN SUN, AND FUQING ZHANG a University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee, Milwaukee, Wisconsin b Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, Mississippi c NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida d NOAA/Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, Maryland e Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, Florida f University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York g National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado h University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil i Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California j Canadian Hurricane Center, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada k The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona l Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland m RiskPulse, Madison, Wisconsin n McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada o Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida p -
An Observational and Modeling Analysis of the Landfall of Hurricane Marty (2003) in Baja California, Mexico
JULY 2005 F ARFÁN AND CORTEZ 2069 An Observational and Modeling Analysis of the Landfall of Hurricane Marty (2003) in Baja California, Mexico LUIS M. FARFÁN Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada B.C., Unidad La Paz, La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico MIGUEL CORTEZ Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Comisión Nacional del Agua, México, Distrito Federal, Mexico (Manuscript received 20 July 2004, in final form 26 January 2005) ABSTRACT This paper documents the life cycle of Tropical Cyclone Marty, which developed in late September 2003 over the eastern Pacific Ocean and made landfall on the Baja California peninsula. Observations and best-track data indicate that the center of circulation moved across the southern peninsula and proceeded northward in the Gulf of California. A network of surface meteorological stations in the vicinity of the storm track detected strong winds. Satellite and radar imagery are used to analyze the structure of convective patterns, and rain gauges recorded total precipitation. A comparison of Marty’s features at landfall, with respect to Juliette (2001), indicates similar wind intensity but differences in forward motion and accumu- lated precipitation. Official, real-time forecasts issued by the U.S. National Hurricane Center prior to landfall are compared with the best track. This resulted in a westward bias of positions with decreasing errors during subsequent forecast cycles. Numerical simulations from the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model were used to examine the evolution of the cyclonic circulation over the southern peninsula. The model was applied to a nested grid configuration with hori- zontal resolution as detailed as 3.3 km, with two (72- and 48-h) simulations. -
The Contribution of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones to The
AUGUST 2009 C O R B O S I E R O E T A L . 2415 The Contribution of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones to the Rainfall Climatology of the Southwest United States KRISTEN L. CORBOSIERO Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California MICHAEL J. DICKINSON Weather Predict Consulting, Inc., Narragansett, Rhode Island LANCE F. BOSART Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York (Manuscript received 26 August 2008, in final form 6 March 2009) ABSTRACT Forty-six years of summer rainfall and tropical cyclone data are used to explore the role that eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) play in the rainfall climatology of the summer monsoon over the southwestern United States. Thirty-five TCs and their remnants were found to bring significant rainfall to the region, representing less than 10% of the total number of TCs that formed within the basin. The month of September was the most common time for TC rainfall to occur in the monsoon region as midlatitude troughs become more likely to penetrate far enough south to interact with the TCs and steer them toward the north and east. On average, the contribution of TCs to the warm-season precipitation increased from east to west, accounting for less than 5% of the rainfall in New Mexico and increasing to more than 20% in southern California and northern Baja California, with individual storms accounting for as much as 95% of the summer rainfall. The distribution of rainfall for TC events over the southwest United States reveals three main categories: 1) a direct northward track from the eastern Pacific into southern California and Nevada, 2) a distinct swath northeastward from southwestern Arizona through northwestern New Mexico and into southwestern Col- orado, and 3) a broad area of precipitation over the southwest United States with embedded maxima tied to terrain features. -
Dry Season, Spring 2017
Hawai'i Ho'ohekili Skywarn Weather Spotter Newsletter National Weather Service, Honolulu, HI Dry Season Edition, 2017 Issued — June 2017 Spotter Newsletter Volume 15 Inside this edition: ENSO prediction, Hawaii drought, King Tides, the Central Pa- cific Hurricane outlook, and more!!! ENSO-neutral and El Niño are nearly equally favored during the Northern Hemisphere summer and fall 2017. ENSO-neutral persisted during April, with near- average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across the central equatorial Pacific and above-average SSTs in the eastern Pacific (Fig. 1). The ocean and atmosphere system remains consistent with ENSO-neutral. We’re finally starting to get through the spring barrier, when climate models have a harder time making successful forecasts. Forecasters estimate the chance of El Niño forming is about equal to the chance that neutral conditions will continue: both are just shy of 50% through the fall. Unlike two years ago, when the signal that a strong El Niño was developing was clear, most of our prediction tools are suggesting very borderline conditions, making it a tough forecast. Quotes from Two Scientists Michelle: Here’s the latest NOAA/NCEP CFSv2 model forecast (Fig 2). It’s bailing on its previously predicted El Niño. And it’s not the only one. The Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) said the other day they’re 50-50 on El Niño developing. The UK Meteorological Office released a new run of their model, and it shows about half the members sub 0.5°C (rough threshold for El Niño). The Bureau of Meteorology in Australia updated their discussion and they noted the models tend to be retreating as well. -
Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms, 1871-1993: an Historical Survey, the Only Books Or Reports Exclu- Sively on Florida Hurricanes Were R.W
3. 2b -.I 3 Contents List of Tables, Figures, and Plates, ix Foreword, xi Preface, xiii Chapter 1. Introduction, 1 Chapter 2. Historical Discussion of Florida Hurricanes, 5 1871-1900, 6 1901-1930, 9 1931-1960, 16 1961-1990, 24 Chapter 3. Four Years and Billions of Dollars Later, 36 1991, 36 1992, 37 1993, 42 1994, 43 Chapter 4. Allison to Roxanne, 47 1995, 47 Chapter 5. Hurricane Season of 1996, 54 Appendix 1. Hurricane Preparedness, 56 Appendix 2. Glossary, 61 References, 63 Tables and Figures, 67 Plates, 129 Index of Named Hurricanes, 143 Subject Index, 144 About the Authors, 147 Tables, Figures, and Plates Tables, 67 1. Saffir/Simpson Scale, 67 2. Hurricane Classification Prior to 1972, 68 3. Number of Hurricanes, Tropical Storms, and Combined Total Storms by 10-Year Increments, 69 4. Florida Hurricanes, 1871-1996, 70 Figures, 84 l A-I. Great Miami Hurricane 2A-B. Great Lake Okeechobee Hurricane 3A-C.Great Labor Day Hurricane 4A-C. Hurricane Donna 5. Hurricane Cleo 6A-B. Hurricane Betsy 7A-C. Hurricane David 8. Hurricane Elena 9A-C. Hurricane Juan IOA-B. Hurricane Kate 1 l A-J. Hurricane Andrew 12A-C. Hurricane Albert0 13. Hurricane Beryl 14A-D. Hurricane Gordon 15A-C. Hurricane Allison 16A-F. Hurricane Erin 17A-B. Hurricane Jerry 18A-G. Hurricane Opal I9A. 1995 Hurricane Season 19B. Five 1995 Storms 20. Hurricane Josephine , Plates, X29 1. 1871-1880 2. 1881-1890 Foreword 3. 1891-1900 4. 1901-1910 5. 1911-1920 6. 1921-1930 7. 1931-1940 These days, nothing can escape the watchful, high-tech eyes of the National 8. -
L.* /J Analysis of Northeast Pacific Hurricane Tico and Its Associated Heavy Rain Event Over the South Plains of Texas and Oklah
L.* /J ANALYSIS OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC HURRICANE TICO AND ITS ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN EVENT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA by JOEL LEE TUMBIOLO, B.S. A THESIS IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of Texas Tech University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE Approved Accepted May, 1989 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I wish to extend my sincere thanks to Dr. Richard E. Peterson for his encouragements, assistance, and understanding during the preparation of this thesis. I would also like to thank Dr. Colleen A. Leary and Dr. Chia Bo Chang for their assistance and advice during the course of this work. A special thanks goes to Dr. Gerald M. Jurica for his advice during my years at Texas Tech. Special thanks also go out to Debbie Kerr for her assistance in preparing this thesis, Mark Oberfield for his assistance in generating the computer programs, and to Teresa Bals for her moral support. Finally, a special thanks goes to my wife, Becke for her understanding and support during the long hours I spent closed-in, writing text and drawing figures. Sincere thanks also go out to my parents, John and JoAnn Tumbiolo for their financial and moral support throughout my college years. Without this support, I could never have reached this educational goal. TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ii LIST OF FIGURES v I. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Data Sources 8 II. THE SYNOPTIC SETTING 12 2.1 17 October 1983 12 2.2 18 October 1983 23 2.3 19 October 1983 33 2.4 20 October 1983 43 2.5 21 October 1983 53 111. -
Hurricane Lester Information from CPHC Advisory 38, 5:00 PM HST Fri September 2, 2016 Lester Is Moving Toward the West-Northwest Near 14 Mph
eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory Hurricane Lester Information from CPHC Advisory 38, 5:00 PM HST Fri September 2, 2016 Lester is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph. This general motion is expected to continue through Saturday night with a gradual turn toward the northwest expected on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 105 mph Position Relative to 270 miles ENE of Speed: (cat. 2 hurricane) Land: Hilo, HI Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 973 mb Coordinates: 20.5 N, 151.0 W Trop. Storm Force 140 miles Est. Max Sustained Bearing/Speed: WNW or 290 degrees at 14 mph n/a Winds Extent: from center Wind Speed: Forecast Summary ■ The current NHC forecast map (below left) and wind field map based on the NHC’s forecast track (below right) both show Lester moving northwest of the Hawaiian Islands at hurricane strength (74+ mph). To illustrate the uncertainty in Lester’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind field map (below right) in pale gray. ■ Hurricane conditions are possible over Maui County and Oahu late Saturday or Saturday night, and tropical storm conditions are possible as early as Saturday afternoon. ■ Large swells generated by Lester will build across Hawaiian waters tonight and Saturday. Surf generated by these swells will peak during the weekend across the main Hawaiian Islands, becoming very large and possibly damaging along exposed shorelines. -
•Daily Operations Briefing Monday, August 29, 2016 8:30 A.M
•Daily Operations Briefing Monday, August 29, 2016 8:30 a.m. EDT Significant Activity - August 28-29 Significant Events: None Tropical Activity: • Atlantic – Hurricane Gaston; Tropical Depression Eight, Tropical Depression Nine • Eastern Pacific – Hurricane Lester; Disturbance 1 – Low (10%) • Central Pacific – Tropical Storm Madeline • Western Pacific – No significant activity threatening U.S. interests Significant Weather: • Isolated, severe thunderstorms – Upper Mississippi Valley to upper Great Lakes • Flash flooding – NM, CO, TX, OK, LA, FL, WI, MI • Rain and thunderstorms – Southwest, Rockies, Central and Southern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Southeast • Red Flag Warnings – OR & CA • Critical Fire Weather – None • Space weather – No space weather storms in the last 24 hours; Minor (G-1 level) storms predicted in the next 24 hours Earthquake Activity: No significant activity Declaration Activity: • Major Disaster Declaration (FEMA-4278-DR) approved for Kentucky • FMAG (FEMA-5152-FM) approved for Suncrest Fire, Washington Central Pacific – Hurricane Madeline Situation: • Located 755 miles E of Hilo, Hawaii • Moving WNW near 10 mph • Movement expected to become more westerly today and tomorrow • Maximum sustained winds 85 mph; with higher gusts • Expected to strengthen slightly today before beginning to weaken Tuesday • Hurricane-Force Winds extend outward up to 17 miles • Tropical-Storm-Force Winds extend outward up to 90 miles Potential Impacts: • No coastal Watches and Warnings in effect • Heavy rain, flooding/coastal flooding, storm surge & strong winds possible Response: • Region IX IMAT-1 deploying to Hawaii supported by Bothell MERS personnel • ISB personnel deploying to Distribution Center (DC), Hawaii • NWC & FEMA Region IX continue to monitor Tropical Outlook - Eastern Pacific Hurricane Lester CAT-3 (Advisory #19 as of 5:00 a.m. -
NCAR Annual Scientific Report Fiscal Year 1986 - Link Page Next PART0002
National Center for Atmospheric Research Annual Scientific Report Fiscal Year 1986 Submitted to National Science Foundation by University Corporation for Atmospheric Research March 1987 /in Contents INTRODUCTION V ATMOSPHERIC ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION DIVISION ·. 1 Significant Accomplishments ............. I a a 0 1 Division Office . · · r0 3 Mesoscale Research Section ............. 0 0 0 0 0 5 Climate Section ................ ... p 0 0 0 13 Large-Scale Dynamics Section ............. 22 Oceanography Section ................ 30 ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY DIVISION ........ 39 Significant Accomplishments .. .... .a.. 40 Precipitation Chemistry, Reactive Gases, and Aerosols Section ........... ......... 41 Atmospheric Gas Measurements Section . .. 48 Global Observations, Modeling, and Optical Techniques Section ...... .. 54 Director's Office .. ........ ... 60 Support and Visitor Section ....... I. a. .. 62 HIGH ALTITUDE OBSERVATORY . 67 Significant Accomplishments .. ................ 67 Coronal/Interplanetary Physics Section a . a... .. 68 Solar Activity and Magnetic Fields Section . .. 77 Solar Interior Section ... ...... ...1 83 Terrestrial Interactions Section . .... a a............ a90 ADVANCED STUDY PROGRAM ..... 101 Significant Accomplishment .................. 101 Visitor Program .... .................... 102 Environmental and Societal Impacts Group ............. 119 Natural Systems Group ............... ... 125 CLOUDS SYSTEMS DIVISION .................. 133 Significant Accomplishments ......... ......... 133 Mesoscale Convective Systems