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Hurricane Lester Information from CPHC Advisory 38, 5:00 PM HST Fri September 2, 2016 Lester Is Moving Toward the West-Northwest Near 14 Mph

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Hurricane Lester Information from CPHC Advisory 38, 5:00 PM HST Fri September 2, 2016 Lester Is Moving Toward the West-Northwest Near 14 Mph eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory Hurricane Lester Information from CPHC Advisory 38, 5:00 PM HST Fri September 2, 2016 Lester is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph. This general motion is expected to continue through Saturday night with a gradual turn toward the northwest expected on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 105 mph Position Relative to 270 miles ENE of Speed: (cat. 2 hurricane) Land: Hilo, HI Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 973 mb Coordinates: 20.5 N, 151.0 W Trop. Storm Force 140 miles Est. Max Sustained Bearing/Speed: WNW or 290 degrees at 14 mph n/a Winds Extent: from center Wind Speed: Forecast Summary ■ The current NHC forecast map (below left) and wind field map based on the NHC’s forecast track (below right) both show Lester moving northwest of the Hawaiian Islands at hurricane strength (74+ mph). To illustrate the uncertainty in Lester’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind field map (below right) in pale gray. ■ Hurricane conditions are possible over Maui County and Oahu late Saturday or Saturday night, and tropical storm conditions are possible as early as Saturday afternoon. ■ Large swells generated by Lester will build across Hawaiian waters tonight and Saturday. Surf generated by these swells will peak during the weekend across the main Hawaiian Islands, becoming very large and possibly damaging along exposed shorelines. ■ Heavy rains associated with Lester may impact Maui county and Oahu Saturday and Sunday. Forecast Track for Hurricane Lester Forecast Wind field for Hurricane Lester (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 18:00 UTC from Kinetic Analysis Corp.) © Copyright 2016 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this report may be compiled from third party sources; however, we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of Hazard and damage potential maps such. This report is for general information only, is not intended to be relied upon, and any action based on or in connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice. The views expressed in this produced by Willis are based on numerical report are not necessarily those of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc., or any of its/their parent or sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC or any member companies thereof (hereinafter “Willis Towers Watson”). modeling results from Kinetic Analysis Willis Towers Watson accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. Corporation. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. gust Coastal Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Watch – meaning that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours - is in effect for Oahu and Maui County including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai, and Kahoolawe. Tropical Storm Wind Speed Probabilities at 2 PM HST Friday September 2 for the Next 5 Days The maps below show probabilities of maximum sustained wind speeds over the next five days. The map at lower left shows the Hawaiian Islands with chances of seeing tropical storm force wind speeds (39 - 73 mph) ranging from 5% to 40%. The map at lower right shows Hawaii has less than 5% chance of seeing hurricane force wind speeds (74+ mph). New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates An elongated area of low pressure continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend several hundred miles off the southern coast of Mexico. Upper- level winds are expected to become more conducive for development, and the disturbance should gradually consolidate during the next couple of days, with a tropical depression likely to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves west-northwestward near the coast of Mexico. Chances of formation are 70% through 2 days and 80% through five days. A weak area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a few showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds. Chances of formation are 10% through 2 days and 20% through five days. Contact us Roy Cloutier [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 2 .
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