UNIVERSITY OF CALGARY Assessment of Crime at C-Train Stations by Abul Kalam Azad A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING CALGARY, ALBERTA JUNE, 2011 © Abul Kalam Azad 2011 Library and Archives Bibliotheque et 1*1 Canada Archives Canada Published Heritage Direction du Branch Patrimoine de I'edition 395 Wellington Street 395, rue Wellington OttawaONK1A0N4 Ottawa ON K1A 0N4 Canada Canada Your file Votre r6f6rence ISBN: 978-0-494-81417-8 Our file Notre r6f6rence ISBN: 978-0-494-81417-8 NOTICE: AVIS: The author has granted a non­ L'auteur a accorde une licence non exclusive exclusive license allowing Library and permettant a la Bibliotheque et Archives Archives Canada to reproduce, Canada de reproduire, publier, archiver, publish, archive, preserve, conserve, sauvegarder, conserver, transmettre au public communicate to the public by par telecommunication ou par I'lnternet, preter, telecommunication or on the Internet, distribuer et vendre des theses partout dans le loan, distribute and sell theses monde, a des fins commerciales ou autres, sur worldwide, for commercial or non­ support microforme, papier, electronique et/ou commercial purposes, in microform, autres formats. paper, electronic and/or any other formats. The author retains copyright L'auteur conserve la propriete du droit d'auteur ownership and moral rights in this et des droits moraux qui protege cette these. Ni thesis. Neither the thesis nor la these ni des extraits substantiels de celle-ci substantial extracts from it may be ne doivent etre imprimes ou autrement printed or otherwise reproduced reproduits sans son autorisation. without the author's permission. In compliance with the Canadian Conformement a la loi canadienne sur la Privacy Act some supporting forms protection de la vie privee, quelques may have been removed from this formulaires secondaires ont ete enleves de thesis. cette these. While these forms may be included Bien que ces formulaires aient inclus dans in the document page count, their la pagination, il n'y aura aucun contenu removal does not represent any loss manquant. of content from the thesis. ••I Canada Ill Abstract In recent decades, there is immense interest in studying the social and physical contributors to crime in LRT (C-Train in Calgary) station settings and linking public mass transit to increase in community crime. This study explores the relationships between the social/physical characteristics of a transit environment and CTrian station crime in the Calgary context. Through descriptive statistical analysis and regression modelling, this study investigates the impacts of socioeconomic and physical variables of environment on C-Train station crimes. The main research premise attempts to identify the independent variables associated with person, property and vehicle related crime at C-Train stations. The study area comprises the twenty six C-Train stations along the Northwest, Northeast and South lines of the Calgary LRT system. Analysis of the regression results showed that four variables were able to collectively explain 79% of the variability of person crime. These variables include bus stops at stations, commercial and industrial land use, household income group 40,000-59,999 and housing density. Two independent variables, bus stops at stations and commercial and industrial land use, were able to collectively explain 72% of the variability of property related crime. In addition, two variables (the number of parking stalls at C-Train stations and commercial and industrial land use) were found to be statistically significant, explaining 69% percent of the variability of vehicle crime. The implementation of new transit station often raises concerns that such new stations may increase crime rates in station communities. This study also examines the effects of new C-Train stations in Calgary on adjacent communities' crime. A piecewise regression model is developed to evaluate the impact of the opening of a station on crimes in the station communities. To study about new station's impact to community crime, we have seen vehicle type of crime increase during the opening of station at McKnight and Somerset stations. However, they did not continue to increase after that point. Use of statistical analysis and models can aid to the policy making process of planning and designing safe C-Train stations. Further research in this field is required to verify more potential crime attributes and their relationship to public transit environments. IV Acknowledgement I would like to express my sincere thanks to my supervisors Professor Chan Wirasinghe and Professor Richard Tay. I am fortunate to have the opportunity to learn from them, both academic and otherwise. I would like to express my deepest gratitude to the faculty members for their dedication and inspiration. Special thanks to Dr. Lina Kattan and Dr. Alex de Barros for their keen interest in my academic and research progress. My sincere thanks to Calgary Transit for their kind support. Special thanks to Stephen Hansen and Brian Whitelaw from Calgary Transit for their continuous support in my research. I am indebted to all my fellow researchers in the transportation group who have enriched my experience at University of Calgary in numerous ways. My teachers at this university and my friends have been a constant source of my inspiration. Finally, I would like to thank my parents and family for endless loving support, encourage and sacrifice. V Table of Contents Content Page No. Abstract iii Acknowledgement iv 1. INTRODUCTION 1-5 1.1 Background and rationale of the study 1 1.2 Objectives 2 1.3 Significance of study 3 1.4 Approach and methodology 3 1.5 Outline of study 4 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 6-20 2.1 Introduction 6 2.2 Basis of transit safety and crime 6 2.3 Theories of transit crime 7 2.3.1 Fear and perception of crime • 8 2.3.2 LRT station environment and crime 9 2.4 Development of an integrated theoretical framework 11 2.4.1 Does public transit crime reflect area crime rates? 12 2.4.2 Theoretical framework development 13 2.4.3 Possible factors increase crime opportunities 15 2.4.3.1 Ecological components related to public transit crime 15 2.4.3.2 Compositional aspects related to crime 16 2.4.4 Impact of new transit station to community crime 18 2.5 Summary and preface to next chapter 20 3. TRANSIT AND CRIME - A CALGARY CONTEXT 21-34 3.1 Introduction 21 3.2 Calgary Transit 21 3.3 Study Area 24 3.4 Data 28 3.4.1 C-Train Station Crime Data 28 3.4.2 Community Crime Data 31 3.5 Summary and preface to next chapter 34 4. METHODOLOGY 35 4.1 Model building of C-Train as crime generator 35 4.1.1 Dependent variable 35 4.1.2 Independent variable datasets 35 4.1.2.1 Physical Characters 35 4.1.2.2 Socioeconomic and demographic 42 4.1.3 Model building process 52 4.2 Model building for C-Train station as crime attractor 53 4.2.1 Model building process 59 4.3 Summary 63 5. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 64 5.1 Introduction 64 5.2 Correlation between different types of crime and independent variables 64 5.3 Person Crime 67 5.3.1 Regression Results 67 5.3.2 Multivariate Regression Results 70 5.4 Property Crime 71 5.4.1 Regression Results 71 5.4.2 Multivariate Regression Results 73 5.5 Vehicle Crime 74 5.5.1 Regression Results 74 5.5.2 Stepwise Regression Results 77 5.6 New Stations Impact to Adjacent Community Crime 77 5.6.1 Crowfoot Station and Adjacent Communities Crime 78 5.6.2 Dalhousie Station and Adjacent Communities Crime 80 5.6.3 Mcknight-Westwinds Station and Adjacent Communities Crime 81 Vll 5.6.4 Somerset-Bridlewood Station and Adjacent Communities Crime 83 5.6.5 Shawnessy Station and Adjacent Communities Crime 85 5.7 Insight of Calgary C-Train Stations as Crime Generator and Crime Attractor 86 5.8 Summary and Preface to Next Chapter 87 6. DISCUSSION AND FUTURE RESEARCH 89-93 6.1 Main findings 89 6.2 Policy, planning issues and future studies 92 Reference IV Vlll List of Tables Title Page No. Table 2.1: Socio-economic and physical variables 13 Table 3.1 Calgary Transit Statistics in brief 23 Table 3.2 Type of Crime 29 Table 3.3 Descriptive Statistics of C-Train Station Crime, 29 Year 2003 to 2009 Table 3.4 Type of Community Crime 32 Table 4.1 Parking Stalls 36 Table 4.2 Numbers of bus stop 38 Table 4.3 Graffiti, Panhandling, liquor and pub stores 39 Table 4.4 Land Use 41 Table 4.5 Population Density 42 Table 4.6 Ridership 43 Table 4.7 Male Female Ratio 45 Table 4.8: Age composition 46 Table 4.9: Dwelling composition 48 Table 4.10: Employment Status 49 Table 4.11 Income Group 51 Table 4.12: Opening of C-Train stations and selected communities 54 Table 4.13: Number of observation 62 Table 4.14: Example of Dalhousie Station Piecewise Regression 63 Table 5.1: Correlation matrix physical components (n = 26) 66 Table 5.2: Correlation matrix socio-economic components (n = 26) 67 Table 5.3: Dependent variable person crime independent variable parking stalls 68 Table 5.4: Dependent variable person crime independent variable bus stops at stations 68 Table 5.5: Dependent variable person crime independent variable land use 69 Table 5.6: Dependent variable person crime independent variable household income 70 IX Table 5.7: Stepwise regression result person crime 71 Table 5.8: Dependent variable property crime independent variable number of parking stalls 72 Table 5.9: Dependent variable property crime independent variable number of bus stops at stations 72 Table 5.10: Stepwise regression result