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A Precipitation-Runoff Model for Simulating Natural Streamflow Conditions in the Smith River Watershed, Montana, Water Years 1996–2008

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A Precipitation-Runoff Model for Simulating Natural Streamflow Conditions in the Smith River Watershed, Montana, Water Years 1996–2008 Prepared in cooperation with the Meagher County Conservation District A Precipitation-Runoff Model for Simulating Natural Streamflow Conditions in the Smith River Watershed, Montana, Water Years 1996–2008 Eden M in g C o u le e k e e r C d n ou H Smith River Tenderfoot Creek Rock Creek Eagle Creek Camp Baker Sheep Creek ver C Bea reek W h i reek r tetail C e i v R ulch ith n G Sm to n Fort k e ee Lake B Logan Cr lan Sutherlin ew N Newlan Creek 06076560 Reservoir Fourmile Camas Creek Willow k Creek ree Creek h C rc North Fork i S B g White o i u B Sulphur t h Springs F o r k Smith River Scientific Investigations Report 2014–5125 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Cover photographs. Top, Smith River looking northwest near Camp Baker, Montana, August 2006. Middle, Beaver Creek looking west near Camp Baker, Montana, August 2006. Bottom, Smith River above Rock Springs Creek (station 06076580) near White Sulphur Springs, Montana, July 2006. Photographs by Rodney R. Caldwell, U.S. Geological Survey. A Precipitation-Runoff Model for Simulating Natural Streamflow Conditions in the Smith River Watershed, Montana, Water Years 1996–2008 By Katherine J. Chase, Rodney R. Caldwell, and Andrea K. Stanley Prepared in cooperation with the Meagher County Conservation District Scientific Investigations Report 2014–5125 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior SALLY JEWELL, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Suzette M. Kimball, Acting Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2014 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment, visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1–888–ASK–USGS. For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod To order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner. Suggested citation: Chase, K.J., Caldwell, R.R., and Stanley, A.K., 2014, A precipitation-runoff model for simulating natural streamflow conditions in the Smith River watershed, Montana, water years 1996–2008: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investi- gations Report 2014–5125, 26 p. plus appendix, http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/sir20145125. ISSN 2328-0328 (online) iii Contents Abstract ...........................................................................................................................................................1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................1 Purpose and Scope ..............................................................................................................................1 Description of Study Area ...................................................................................................................3 Construction of the Precipitation-Runoff Model ......................................................................................3 Description of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System ............................................................4 Delineation of the Watershed Boundary and Hydrologic Response Units .................................4 Initial Parameter Values ......................................................................................................................5 Time-Series Data.................................................................................................................................10 Precipitation and Air Temperature ..........................................................................................10 Streamflow ..................................................................................................................................10 Calculation of the Observed Streamflow Dataset .......................................................10 Calculation of the Reconstructed-Natural Streamflow Dataset ...............................11 Solar Radiation and Potential Evapotranspiration ...............................................................12 Model Calibration Approach .............................................................................................................12 Model Calibration Results .................................................................................................................13 Model Results for Simulated Natural Streamflow Conditions .............................................................16 Potential Uses and Limitations of the Model ..........................................................................................21 Summary........................................................................................................................................................22 Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................................23 References Cited..........................................................................................................................................23 Appendix........................................................................................................................................................27 Figures 1. Map showing the location of study area and Upper Smith River watershed, Montana ........................................................................................................................................2 2. Schematic diagram of a watershed and its climate inputs simulated by the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System .....................................................................................5 3. Map showing watershed boundary, hydrologic response units, and vegetation types for the precipitation-runoff model, Smith River watershed, Montana .....................7 4. Graph showing reconstructed-natural and observed daily mean streamflow for U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station Smith River near Eden, Montana .......................................................................................................................................11 5. Graphs showing simulated-natural and reconstructed-natural daily mean streamflow for U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station Smith River near Eden, Montana ...................................................................................................................17 6. Graphs showing simulated and observed climate variables for the Smith River watershed, Montana ..................................................................................................................18 7. Drawing showing simulated-natural average annual water budget for the Smith River watershed, water years 1996–2008 ..............................................................................19 8. Bar graph showing simulated-natural annual water budget for the Smith River watershed, water years 1996–2008 .........................................................................................20 iv 9. Graph showing simulated-natural monthly water budget for the Smith River watershed, water years 2002–2008 .........................................................................................20 10. Graph showing partition of total simulated-natural streamflow into subsurface flow and surface runoff for the Smith River watershed, Montana, water years 2002–2008 .....................................................................................................................................21 11. Graph showing simulated-natural streamflow for the Smith River watershed at Smith River at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station Smith River near Eden, Montana, and at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station Smith River below Eagle Creek near Fort Logan, Montana ............................................................22 Tables 1. Modules used in the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System ...............................................6 2. Sources, values, and ranges for selected Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System parameters for the Smith River Basin, Montana .....................................................................8 3. Information for selected streamflow gaging stations in and near the Smith River Basin, Montana ...........................................................................................................................10 4. Calibration targets and parameters used in the Let Us Calibrate calibration procedure for the precipitation-runoff model ........................................................................14 5. Simulated-natural and reconstructed-natural mean monthly, mean annual, and mean April–July streamflow for the calibration and evaluation periods for U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station Smith River near Eden, Montana .......................................................................................................................................15 6. Simulated-natural and reconstructed-natural annual mean streamflow for the calibration and evaluation periods
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