The German Railway Market 2017

Home , Bayerische Oberlandbahn, DB Regio, Regiobahn GmbH, Regionalbahn, Veolia Transport

2017

THE GERMAN RAILWAY MARKET

Facts, Numbers, Players, Trends

Extract from the study

THE GERMAN RAILWAY MARKET

Facts, Figures, Players and Trends

SCI Verkehr GmbH is an independent consultancy firm that is specialised on traffic economy and traffic engineering. As an industry insider, we specialise in market and strategic issues in the mobility sector. We focus our activities on manufacturers and service providers in transport and logistics, the financial and public sectors.

High innovative pressure and a stronger financial planning security enable a dynamic development in the German railway market. This dynamic development, however, does not take the pressure from the railway industry to place cost-effective and innovative solutions on the market. Customers and authorities increasingly expect modern products and raise their demands on environmentally friendly, energy-saving and low-noise products. The continuous digitisation of the entire railway sector is becoming increasingly important.

In this context, SCI Verkehr has comprehensively revised the market study on the German rail market. The reader expects carefully elaborated analyses and forecasts of:

 the transport markets for rail passengers transport, rail freight transport as well as urban rail transport  the markets for products and services in the segments of rolling stock, infrastructure and systems technology  the current market structure (legal and socioeconomic fundamentals as well as the political and economic environment)  the ongoing market development and the significant megatrends

The Annex contains:

 Company portraits (fact sheets)  railway undertakings in the passenger and freight transport sector  the main manufacturer of rolling stock, infrastructure and system technology  address lists of transport and infrastructure companies  Overvieos of infrastructure projects and rolling stock orders

The results are based on a variety of information from press releases and expert discussions, which are continuously evaluated, validated and collected in the central database SCI/DATABASE. The methodology and structure have been supplemented and further developed. The result is a coherent and meaningful overview of the German rail market today and in the coming years.

The market study "The German Railway Market - Facts, Figures, Players and Trends" is available as from September in German and October in English language.

Contact:

Ann Kathrin Arntz Ahmed Yasin Tel.: +49 221 93178 0 Tel.: +49 221 93178 0 E-Mail: [email protected] E-Mail: [email protected]

The main part of the study comprises about 150 pages with ca. 100 figures and 30 tables. The Annex of the study has about 100 pages.

CONTENT

1 Executive Summary ...... 20

2 Objective and Methodology ...... 26

2.1 Objective ...... 26 2.2 Segmentation of the Market ...... 27 2.3 The Transport Markets ...... 28 2.4 The Markets for Products and Services ...... 31

3 Structure and General Conditions of the Railway Market in Germany ...... 42

3.1 Companies and Employment ...... 42 3.2 Position of Rail Transport ...... 44

4 The Transport Markets ...... 45

4.1 Long-Distance Passenger Rail ...... 45 4.2 Regional and Commuter Rail ...... 54 4.3 Urban Rail Transit (Metro, LRT)...... 66 4.4 Rail freight transport ...... 70

5 Products and Services: Digital Products and Services ...... 77

5.1 Drivers of Market Development ...... 77 5.2 Market Volumes and Forecast ...... 78 5.3 Outlook and Mega Trends ...... 79

6 Products and Services: Infrastructure and Systems Technology ...... 80

6.1 Summary ...... 80 6.2 Overview of Existing Infrastructure...... 82 6.3 Track Systems ...... 92 6.4 Electrification ...... 97 6.5 Control Command and Signalling ...... 102 6.6 Passenger-Related Information Technology ...... 107

7 Products and Services: Rolling Stock ...... 111

7.1 Summary ...... 111 7.2 High-Speed and Long-Distance Trains ...... 112 7.3 Electric Locomotives ...... 116

7.4 Diesel Locomotives ...... 121 7.5 Electric Multiple Units ...... 128 7.6 Diesel Multiple Units ...... 135 7.7 Passenger Coaches ...... 140 7.8 Freight Wagons ...... 144 7.9 Underground (metro) vehicles ...... 149 7.10 Light Rail Vehicles ...... 153

ANNEX

1 Unternehmensportraits / Fact Sheets ...... 159

2 Adresslisten / Address Lists ...... 252

3 Wichtige aktuelle Infrastrukturprojekte / Important Current Infrastructure Projects ...... 254

4 Flotten und Beschaffungen von Fahrzeugen / Fleets and Orders of Rolling Stock ...... 261

Excerpt from the main part of the study:

(…) In 2016, the transport market reached a total volume of EUR 22.7 billion. More than half were accounted for by regional and commuter rail and more than one quarter by rail freight transport.

Market Volume 2016 Market Expected Market Development Segment [EUR billions] [%] Development 2016–2021 2011–2016 (tendency) (tendency) Long-distance passenger rail 4.0 17.6   Local rail passenger transport 10.2 44.9   Urban rail transport 3.1 13.7   Rail freight transport 5.4 23.8   Total 22.7 100.0   Source: BNetzA, own calculations © SCI Verkehr GmbH Table 1: Executive Summary – Segmentation of the Transport Markets

(…) However, structural imponderabilities in the financing of regional and commuter passenger rail including its infrastructure have been resolved in recent years not only with the revision of the Regionalisation Fund Act, but also with the enactment of the Railway Regulation Act (Eisenbahnregulierungsgesetzes, ERegG) and the continuation of the Municipal Transport Funding Law/Demerging Law. There are still uncertainties due to regression of debts in the public sector ("balanced budget amendment").

Segmentation of the Market:

Classification of the Railway Markets

Railway Markets

Transport Markets Product Markets Service Markets

Long-distance Transport Process related IT Maintenance and Repair

Regional and Commuter Transport Infrastructure Planning/Design/Consulting

Rail Freight Transport System Technology Construction/Installation

Urbain Rail (Metro, LRT) Rolling Stock

(…)

In addition to the relatively low cost of a long-distance bus journey, free wifi, films and music on- demand, plug sockets as well as simple and customer-friendly cancellation rules increase the popularity of long-distance buses, particularly among young people. The key figures of the last three calendar years in comparison:

2015 ./. 2016 ./. 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015

Number Share Number Share Change Number Share Change [%] [m] [%] [m] [%] [%] [m] [%] Scheduled long-distance bus services: Number of passengers 15.9 100 23.2 100 +47 24.0 100 +4.7 – of which within Germany 12.0 75 16.0 69 +35 – of which in international 3.9 20 7.3 31 +81 No data available by the editorial transport deadline Transport performance [pkm] 5300 100 7300 100 +37.7 Long-distance transport: Number of passengers 129.0 100 131.4 100 0 138 100 +5.3 Share of long-distance buses in 10.9 15.0 +37.6 14.8 -1.3 scheduled long-distance transport Source: DESTATIS, BMVI,own calculations © SCI Verkehr GmbH Table 2: Transport Markets – Long-Distance Passenger Transport with Railways and Buses 2014–2016

(…) The number of passengers travelling with long-distance buses has continued to increase and reached around 24 million in 2016. At 4.7% growth is considerably lower than in previous years. International transport was a significant driver of growth last year. This trend is likely to continue as buses services, depending on the system, can be implemented internationally without restrictions. The deregulation of the market for long-distance buses in France and the expansion of the international network of FlixBus underline this development.

(…) The federal states in Germany receive "regionalisation funding" for public services in terms of public transport performance. These are financed through government oil tax revenues. In 2016 this amounted to EUR 8.2 billion.

(…) In 2016, 69 million train-km were awarded in Germany in competitive1 procedures. 46% of these went to DB Regio AG and 54% went to its competitors. An overview of the years from 2010 to 2016 shows the awarded transport services at a ratio of 45% to 55% for DB Regio AG and other TOCs respectively, thus demonstrating the increased competition in the regional and commuter rail market in Germany.

1 Not considered here: direct awards.

Germany: Regional and Commuter Rail – Financing Structure – Volume of Operating Performance publicly tendered1 between 2010-2016 by Award to DB Regio AG and Competitors [million tkm; at the time of the awarding]

0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 DB Regio AG Competitors 1w/o direct assignments

Figure 2: Transport Markets – Regional and Commuter Rail: Volumes of Operational Performance Assigned by Competitive Awards 2008–2014

(…) Urban rail transit performance reached approx. 17.0 billion pkm in 2016. The decline in transport performance in 2010 and 2015 was compensated for in the following year; the annual average growth rate between 2010 and 2016 is +0.7%.

Deutschland: Stadtverkehr auf Schienen – Verkehrsleistung und Verkehrsaufkommen 2005-2016

20 3.849 3.886 4.000 3.780 3.736 3.764 3.972 3.667 3.680 3.563 3.593 18 3.492 3.431

3.500 Mio. Mio. Personen

16 Pkm

3.000 Mrd. 14 16,9 17,0 16,5 16,3 16,5 16,6 16,7 16,7 15,9 16,1 15,5 15,3 2.500 12 = = 100 2.0000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Verkehrsleistung [Mrd. Pkm] Verkehrsaufkommen [Mio. Personen] Quelle: DESTATIS

(…) Germany is the largest national market for control command and signalling in Europe, especially the OEM market. The current market volume for control command and signalling is around EUR 1,270 million p.a. and is likely to increase considerably to EUR 1,410 million p.a. by 2021 (CAGR: +2.1 %).

Germany: Control Command and Signalling – Market Volume 2012–2022 [EUR million]

1.800 CAGR 2016–2021: +2,1 % Ø: ~ 1 410

1.600 Ø: ~ 1 270

1.400

1.200

1.000

800

600

400

200

0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

New Development and Upgrade Renewal and Maintenance Total

Figure 4: Products and Services – Control Command and Signalling: Market Volume 2012-2022

(…) Germany: Electric Locomotives – Fleet Outside Deutsche Bahn AG 2016 by Owner [No. of Units]

Railpool*

Mitsui Rail Capital Europe*

RBH Logistics

Lokomotion

RWE Rheinbraun

Other

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 *) Share of the fleet operated in Germany © SCI Verkehr GmbH Figure 5: Products and Services – Electric Locomotives: Fleet Outside Deutsche Bahn AG 1994-2016 by Owner

(…) The following table provides an overview of the EMUs currently available in the market and their most important technical details in a standard configuration with a train length of around 70 metres, which is typical for the German market (according to supplier information):

Coradia 430 series FLIRT 4/3 Talent 3**** Mireo**** Continental (…) (…) (…) (…) (…) (…) © SCI Verkehr GmbH Table 3: Products and Services – Electric Multiple Units: Overview of Types

KISS TWINDEXX NIM Express Desiro HC

(…) (…) (…) (…) (…) © SCI Verkehr GmbH Table 4: Products and Services – Electric Multiple Units: Overview of Types Double-Decker

Germany: Electric Multiple Units – OEM Market Shares 2012–2016

Alstom 12%

Total: ~ 650 Units

Stadler 23%

Bombardier 65%

(…)

The most important manufacturers of freight wagons:

Manufacturer Market position

Tatravagonka The company offers a very broad spectrum of wagon types and is especially skilled in producing complicated wagon types such as the pocket wagon for semi-trailers and 80-foot container wagons. With the acquisition of the manufacturer Fabryka Wagonow Gniewczyna (Poland) and Bratstvo (Serbia) in 2010 and the takeover of the bogie manufacturer ELH in Germany in 2012 and the acquisition of the RZD factory in Saransk in 2015, Tatravagonka is still on a course for growth. Greenbrier Astra Rail Greenbrier Companies and Astra Rail Management merged to form Greenbrier-Astra Rail in summer 2017. The European subsidiary of the North American manufacturer of the same name has produced tank wagons, auto transport wagons as well as flat and hopper wagons of nearly all kinds since 1998. Production is carried out by Wagony Świdnica in Świdnica, Poland. The former International Railway Systems Group (IRS) was taken over by an investor after insolvency in 2012 and renamed Astra Rail Systems. Astra Rail Systems mainly produces standard wagons at an affordable price. The main production site is in Arad, Romania. A joint venture was founded with Greenbrier in June 2017. (…) (…) (…) (…) © SCI Verkehr GmbH Table 5: Products and Services – Overview of Freight Wagons

Excerpt from the Annex of the study:

Transdev

Legal Form Limited company Shareholders 100% Transdev Employees (2016) 5.000 (Germany) Turnover (2016) ~EUR 900 million (Germany) Transport Performance (2016) 43 million train-km (regional rail in Germany) 210 million passengers Shareholdings – Bayerische Oberlandbahn GmbH (100%) (regional rail in Germany) – Bayerische Regiobahn GmbH (100%) – NordWestBahn GmbH (64%) – Trandsdev Mitteldeutschland GmbH (100%) – Transdev Regio Ost GmbH (100%) – Transdev Rheinland GmbH / RBE (100%) – Transdev Sachsen-Anhalt GmbH (100%) – trans regio Deutsche Regionalbahn GmbH (100%) – Württembergische Eisenbahn-Gesellschaft mbH (100%) Market Presence & Activities Transdev GmbH (formerly Veolia Verkehr) is the German subsidiary of the French Transdev (formerly Veolia Transdev, previously Veolia Transport), owned by Veolia Environnement and Caisse de Dépôt et Consignations (each 50%). Besides regional rail, Transdev operates scheduled bus services and tramway services. Until the end of 2014, Transdev was also one of the few operators of long-distance rail passenger services in Germany with its brand InterConnex. In 2016 the subsidiary NordOstsee GmbH (NOB) stopped its operation on the Marschbahn between Hamburg and Sylt after 16 years. DB Regio took over operations. The Württembergische Eisenbahn-Gesellschaft mbH offers passenger rail services on four lines in Baden Wuerttemburg: Schönbuchbahn, Wieslauftalbahn, Strohgäubahn and Tälesbahn. Its subsidiary Bayerische Oberlandbahn GmbH (BOB) is active in passenger rail services since 1998. It operates passenger rail services in Bavaria between Munich and Bayrischzell/Tegernsee/Lenggries. In 2013 its brand Meridian won also different lines between Munich, Rosenheim, Salzburg/Kufstein and Holzkirchen. The total volume of train-km is about 3.1 million. The transport contract runs for a period of 11 years (to 2024). Transdev’s subsidiary Transdev Rheinland GmbH offers passenger rail services under its brand Rheinisch-Bergische Eisenbahn (RBE) between Kaarst, Neuss, Düsseldorf and Mettmann since 1999. The subsidiary trans regio Deutsche Regionalbahn GmbH was founded in 1999. Since 2000 it operates two lines: Kusel-Kaiserslautern and Andernach-Kaisersesch in Rhineland-Palatinate. In 2008 it started operations in North Rhine-Westphalia between Mainz, Coblenz and Cologne. In total the volume of train-km is about 2.9 km per year. Since 2014 it is a 100%-subsidiary of Transdev. Since 2000 the subsidiary NordWestBahn GmbH (NWB) is active in Lower Saxony and North Rhine-Westphalia. It offers passenger rail services on six networks (Diesel network Ostwestfalen, Weser-/Lammetalbahn, Niers-Rhein-Emscher-Netz, Regio-S- Bahn Bremen/Niedersachsen, Emscher-Münsterland network and Weser-Ems) with a total volume of 19.1 million train-km. In 2016 NordWestBahn was awarded to continue operations on the Weser-Ems-network (5 million train-km) for the next ten years. Since 2004 the subsidiary Transdev Sachsen-Anhalt GmbH offers passenger rail services under its brands HarzElbeExpress (HEX) and Harz-Berlin-Express (HBX) in Saxony-Anhalt. Since 2005 it operates the Nordharz network for a period of 12 years. In 2015 Transdev Sachsen Anhalt GmbH started with the operation of Halle (Saale)-Goslar-line for a period of 3 years. In total the volume of train-km is about 3.9 million train-km. Since 2008 the subsidiary Bayerische Regiobahn GmbH (BRB) offers mostly S-

Bahn passenger rail services in Bavaria – focussed on Augsburg and surroundings. It operates lines of Ammersee- und Pfaffenwinkelbahn, Paartalbahn and Altmühltalbahn with a volume of around 3.0 million train-km. In 2018 BRB will operate the Diesel network Augsburg for a period of 12 years. Since 2016 the subsidiaries Transdev Regio Ost GmbH and Trandsdev Mitteldeutschland GmbH offers passenger rail services under its brand Mitteldeutsche Regiobahn (MRB) on five lines in Saxony between Dresden, Chemnitz, Zwickau, Hof, Elsterwerda, Leipzig and Döbeln. The transport contract runs for a period of 14.5 years and is about 5.8 million train-km. Franchises Operated – Bayerische Oberlandbahn – Diesel-Netz 2011 Lot 3 (Netz Weser-/Lammetalbahn) – Dieselnetz Augsburg I (from Dec 2018) – Dieselnetz Augsburg II – Dieselnetz Nordwestsachsen – Dieselnetz Ostwestfalen-Lippe, Lot Süd – Elektronetz Mittelsachsen II – Emscher-Münsterland-Netz – E-Netz Rosenheim – Halle – Goslar – Leipzig-Geithain – Marschbahn – Mittelrheinbahn – Niers-Rhein-Emscher-Netz – Nordharz – Regio-S-Bahn Bremen – Strohgäubahn – S-Bahn Rhein-Ruhr S 28 (RegioBahn) – Teilnetz Weser-Ems – Wieslauftalbahn – Augsburger Netze Übergang Lot D (from Dec. 2019 – Bayer.Regiobahn) © SCI Verkehr GmbH

Westfalenbahn

Legal Form Limited company Shareholders 100% Abellio GmbH Employees (2016) 315 Turnover (2016) ~EUR 90 million (estimated) Transport Performance (2016) 9.5 million train-km/year Shareholdings - Market Presence & Activities Westfalenbahn GmbH is a holding company by Abellio GmbH, which was founded in 2005 (founded by Abellio GmbH, Mindener Kreisbahnen GmbH, moBiel GmbH & Verkehrsbetriebe Extertal GmbH). Westfalenbahn offers passenger rail services in North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony. In December 2007 Westfalenbahn started its operations on four lines of Teutoburger-Wald-network with around 4.1 million train-km per year. The transport contract runs for a period of 10 years and will end in Decmeber 2017. In 2014 Westfalenbahn lost the tender and will not continue its services on Teutoburger Wald network. Eurobahn will take over operations for the next 15 years. Since 2015, the Westfalenbahn operates also three lines of the Ems-and Mittelland-network with 5.4 million train-km. The contract runs for a period of 15 years. In July 2017 the Mindener Kreisbahnen GmbH, moBiel GmbH & Verkehrsbetriebe

Extertal GmbH who previously all holded equal shares of 25% transferred their shares for a price that was kept confidential to Abellio GmbH which is now the 100% shareholder of Westfalenbahn. Franchises Operated – Teuteburger Wald Netz (TWN) (RB 61, RB 65, RB 66, RB 72) – Emsland-/Mittelland-Netz (EMIL) (RE 15, RE 60, RE70) © SCI Verkehr GmbH

Wichtige aktuelle und geplante Beschaffungsvorhaben / Important Current and Planned Procurement Transactions

Number of Delivery Number Supplier Type Cars Remarks of Decks Units per From To Unit IC x - The 45 trains are part of a Version delivery of 130 trains of a K3s (ICE major contract over 300 4 Serie trains. The delivery of all 300 412) trains is to be completed by 2013. K1n will primarily replace IC trains, the 10-car K3s will replace primarily ICE 1 and 2. 2 trains will be delivered already until 2014 and undergo trial runs for a year – at first without and later with passengers. Bombardier is a major supplier for Siemens and involved in the billion Euro order to about a third. The 100 12 Single 2017 2021 first 220 trains have an order volume of EUR 6 billion. The order of 10-car trains was changed into 12-car trains. In May 2017 the order has Siemens AG, been changed from 85 12- Mobility car trains to 100 12-car trains Division in addition to the change of 45 7-car trains to 19 7-car trains. The number of 1335 wagons will remain the same, although only 1333 wagons are necessary, thus two wagons will be kept in reserve. However 12 more powercars will now be produced and instead of 260, only 240 end-cars. IC x - Replacement for the ICE 1 Version and ICE 2, part of a tender K3s - 23 12 Single 2023 2028 about 300 high-speed trains second (till 2030). batch IC x - The 45 trains are part of a Version delivery of 130 trains of a K1n major contract over 300 19 7 Single 2020 2022 trains. The delivery of all 300 trains is to be completed by 2030. K1n will primarily replace IC trains, the 10-car

Number of Delivery Number Supplier Type Cars Remarks of Decks Units per From To Unit K3s will replace primarily ICE 1 and 2. 2 trains will be delivered already until 2014 and undergo trial runs for a year – at first without and later with passengers. Bombardier is a major supplier for Siemens and involved in the billion Euro order to about a third. The first 220 trains have an order volume of EUR 6 billion. In May 2017 the order has been changed from 85 12- car trains to 100 12-car trains in addition to the change of 45 7-car trains to 19 7-car trains. The number of 1335 wagons will remain the same, although only 1333 wagons are necessary, thus two wagons will be kept in reserve. However 12 more powercars will now be produced and instead of 260, only 240 end-cars. IC x - Replacement for the ICE 1 Version and ICE 2, part of a tender K1n - about 300 high-speed trains 36 7 Single 2023 2028 second (till 2030). Originally 31 more batch trains were planned to be procured. © SCI Verkehr GmbH

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