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Vol. 5, THE PLATINUM SHEET Issue 3 Sept. 15 – 21, 2011 Pro Football Power Ratings 2 Pro Football Outplay Factor Ratings 2 Pro Football Best Bets / StatFox Sta Selections 3 StatFox Pro Football Game-by-Game Breakdowns 4 Staff nails Betting Insight: Mismatches 10 66% of Best Bets! College Football Power Ratings 12 P. 3 & 13 College Football Best Bets / StatFox Sta Selections 13 StatFox College Football Outplay Factor Ratings 14 Staff nails 63% CFB College Football Top Statistical Edges 15 picks! College Football Game-by-Game Breakdowns 16 P. 13 Sportsbook.com Betting Trends 24 StatFox Scott now

MANAGING EDITOR 86% success Scott Gramling EXECUTIVE EDITOR Welcome to Week 3 of The Platinum Sheet. I hope this on Best Bets Je Makinen past weekend of football was as successful and profi table as it was for the CONTRIBUTING EDITORS this season! Dave Bartman StatFox sta , which combined to go 25-13-2 for a 66 percent success rate on Gary Bennett best bets across both college and pro football. For most of us, it was once again Brian Graham just a matter of following the StatFox Super Situations. P. 3 & 13 SYSTEMS ANALYST John Mitchell StatFox Super Situations are part of the o ering to those who subscribe CREATIVE DIRECTOR On Sale Ian Knowles at FoxSheets.com. Every week we scour the database and o er to you matchups Wednesday EDITORIAL DIRECTION that are rated highest by our proprietary algorithms. The two-star NFL Super 10Ten Media U.S. $7.99 Situation that appeared in last week’s Platinum Sheet applied to the Pittsburgh/ CANADA DAILY RACING FORM LLC Baltimore game: Play against road teams in the fi rst week of the season where Jim Kostas, President $8.99 Duke Dosik, VP Custom a) the line is between +3 and -3, b) the team had closed out the previous season Publishing with four or fi ve wins in its last fi ve games, and c) the team had a winning record Todd Unger, President of last season. SIG Digital Jacob Luft, Program Mgr. The Platinum Sheet is Teams fi tting that criteria had been 5-23 ATS since 1983. Make it 5-24 as the Steel- published by Daily Racing ers were manhandled by the Ravens in a 35-7 loss that was as lopsided as the Form LLC, 708 Third score indicates. Selected Super Situations and Power Trends are in these pages Avenue, 12th Floor, New York, NY 10017. All rights every week, but only subscribers at FoxSheets.com can access all of them. reserved. Printed in USA. Daily Racing Form LLC reserves the right to deny Now go get ’em! any paid advertisements and is not responsible for any contracts entered in with such advertisers.

SUBSCRIPTIONS: www.StatFox.com/store 1-877-514-4220 Scott Gramling Managing Editor

www.StatFox.com 1 The Platinum Sheet NFL power ratings

The StatFox Power Ratings are generated by a formula that weighs several key factors, Key: OL Opening Line including point margins, strength of schedule and team stats. Additionally, our exclusive PR StatFox Power Rating (adjusted for home field advantage) home-field advantage points are built into each home team’s rating and corresponding PRL Calculated Power Rating Line Edge The difference between the Power Rating Line line. The ratings are not as reactive as those found elsewhere, and thus have proven to be a and the actual opening line great long-term handicapping tool. W/L Keep track of the winners and losers

1. INDIANAPOLIS (+3) over Cleveland 14.0 Sun - 9/18, 4:05 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L TOP STATFOX POWER 2. Green Bay (-10.5) over CAROLINA 13.5 217 DALLAS COWBOYS -3 22 -1 RATING EDGES: 3. Cincinnati (+6) over DENVER 9.0 218 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 21 2

Sun - 9/18, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/18, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/18, 4:15 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 197 CHICAGO BEARS 26 5.5 207 BALTIMORE RAVENS -6 32 -11 5 219 HOUSTON TEXANS 23 -5 198 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -6.5 27 -1 208 TENNESSEE TITANS 21 220 MIAMI DOLPHINS 18

Sun - 9/18, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/18, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/18, 4:15 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 199 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 10 209 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 9 221 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 27 200 DETROIT LIONS -8.5 21 -11 2.5 210 PITTSBURGH STEELERS -13.5 30 -21 7.5 222 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -6 39 -12 6

Sun - 9/18, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/18, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/18, 4:15 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 201 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 16 211 GREEN BAY PACKERS -10.5 36 -24 13.5 223 CINCINNATI BENGALS 17 -3 9 202 NEW YORK JETS -10 30 -14 4 212 CAROLINA PANTHERS 12 224 DENVER BRONCOS -6 14

Sun - 9/18, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/18, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/18, 8:25 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 203 OAKLAND RAIDERS 22 -3 7 213 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 22 2 225 -2.5 28 -3 0.5 204 BUFFALO BILLS -4 19 214 MINNESOTA VIKINGS -3 23 -1 226 ATLANTA FALCONS 25

Sun - 9/18, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/18, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Mon - 9/19, 8:35 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 205 ARIZONA CARDINALS 7 215 CLEVELAND BROWNS -3 13 227 ST. LOUIS RAMS 8 206 WASHINGTON REDSKINS -4.5 19 -12 7.5 216 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 24 -11 14 228 NEW YORK GIANTS 24 -16

NFL Outplay Factor Ratings

StatFox’s renowned Outplay Factor Ratings have proven over the years to be an excel- Key: OL Opening Line lent indicator of team strength: They provide a quantitative measure of how teams are OF StatFox Outplay Factor Rating (adjusted for home-field advantage) outplaying—or being outplayed by—their opponents. They are determined by a sophisti- OFL Calculated Outplay Factor Line EdgeThe difference between the Power Rating Line cated formula that takes into account a team’s points for and points against as compared and the actual opening line to how their previous opponents have fared. W/L Keep track of the winners and losers

1. Green Bay (-10.5) over CAROLINA 15.4 Sun - 9/18, 4:05 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY 2. PITTSBURGH (-13.5) over Seattle 12.1 217 DALLAS COWBOYS -3 20 FACTOR EDGES: 3. INDIANAPOLIS (+3) over Cleveland 11.3 218 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 22 -2 4.9

Sun - 9/18, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/18, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/18, 4:15 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 197 CHICAGO BEARS 26 5.9 207 BALTIMORE RAVENS -6 30 -11 5.5 219 HOUSTON TEXANS 21 -1 198 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -6.5 27 -1 208 TENNESSEE TITANS 19 220 MIAMI DOLPHINS 19

Sun - 9/18, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/18, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/18, 4:15 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 199 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 14 209 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 8.5 221 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 28 200 DETROIT LIONS -8.5 23 -9 0.7 210 PITTSBURGH STEELERS -13.5 34 -26 12.1 222 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -6 39 -11 5.4

Sun - 9/18, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/18, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/18, 4:15 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 201 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 20 1.7 211 GREEN BAY PACKERS -10.5 38 -26 15.4 223 CINCINNATI BENGALS 16 -2 8.3 202 NEW YORK JETS -10 28 -8 212 CAROLINA PANTHERS 12 224 DENVER BRONCOS -6 14

Sun - 9/18, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/18, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/18, 8:25 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 203 OAKLAND RAIDERS 24 -2 6.4 213 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 25 -1 4.3 225 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -2.5 27 204 BUFFALO BILLS -4 22 214 MINNESOTA VIKINGS -3 24 226 ATLANTA FALCONS 28 -1 3.9

Sun - 9/18, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/18, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Mon - 9/19, 8:35 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 205 ARIZONA CARDINALS 6.2 215 CLEVELAND BROWNS -3 17 227 ST. LOUIS RAMS 12 206 WASHINGTON REDSKINS -4.5 19 -13 8.5 216 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 25 -8 11.3 228 NEW YORK GIANTS 25 -13

2 www.StatFox.com the pLatiNum sheet

preseNts the weeK’s Best Bets

WEEK 2 NFL MATCHUPS: SEPTEMBER 18-19 StatFox StatFox DAVE StatFox GARY StatFox FORECASTER StatFox CONSENSUS [ * = ESTIMATED LINE; (BB) = BEST BET ] StatFox SCOTT StatFox BRIAN • (197) CHICAGO at (198) NEW ORLEANS -7 NEW ORLEANS CHICAGO NEW ORLEANS CHICAGO CHICAGO CHICAGO • (199) KANSAS CITY at (200) DETROIT -7½ DETROIT (BB) DETROIT DETROIT KANSAS CITY KANSAS CITY DETROIT • (201) JACKSONVILLE at (202) NEW YORK JETS -10 N.Y. JETS (BB) N.Y. JETS JACKSONVILLE JACKSONVILLE JACKSONVILLE JACKSONVILLE • (203) OAKLAND at (204) BUFFALO -4 BUFFALO BUFFALO BUFFALO OAKLAND (BB) OAKLAND BUFFALO • (205) ARIZONA at (206) WASHINGTON -4½ WASHINGTON WASHINGTON WASHINGTON (BB) WASHINGTON WASHINGTON WASHINGTON • (207) BALTIMORE at (208) TENNESSEE +5½ BALTIMORE BALTIMORE (BB) BALTIMORE BALTIMORE (BB) TENNESSEE BALTIMORE • (209) SEATTLE at (210) PITTSBURGH -14 PITTSBURGH (BB) PITTSBURGH PITTSBURGH PITTSBURGH SEATTLE PITTSBURGH • (211) GREEN BAY at (212) CAROLINA +10½ GREEN BAY GREEN BAY (BB) GREEN BAY CAROLINA (BB) GREEN BAY GREEN BAY • (213) TAMPA BAY at (214) MINNESOTA -3 MINNESOTA TAMPA BAY (BB) TAMPA BAY (BB) MINNESOTA TAMPA BAY TAMPA BAY • (215) CLEVELAND at (216) INDIANAPOLIS +3 INDIANAPOLIS CLEVELAND (BB) CLEVELAND INDIANAPOLIS (BB) INDIANAPOLIS INDIANAPOLIS • (217) DALLAS at (218) SAN FRANCISCO +3 SAN FRANCISCO (BB) DALLAS (BB) DALLAS (BB) DALLAS (BB) SAN FRANCISCO DALLAS • (219) HOUSTON at (220) MIAMI +3* HOUSTON HOUSTON MIAMI HOUSTON MIAMI HOUSTON • (221) SAN DIEGO at (222) NEW ENGLAND -6 NEW ENGLAND SAN DIEGO SAN DIEGO (BB) NEW ENGLAND SAN DIEGO SAN DIEGO • (223) CINCINNATI at (224) DENVER -6 DENVER (BB) DENVER CINCINNATI (BB) CINCINNATI CINCINNATI CINCINNATI • (225) PHILADELPHIA at (226) ATLANTA +3 ATLANTA ATLANTA ATLANTA ATLANTA ATLANTA ATLANTA • (227) ST. LOUIS at (228) NEW YORK GIANTS -7½* N.Y. GIANTS ST. LOUIS N.Y. GIANTS N.Y. GIANTS N.Y. GIANTS N.Y. GIANTS

9/18/2011 9/18/2011 9/18/2011 9/18/2011 9/18/2011 BaLtimore at greeN Bay at tampa Bay at cLeVeLaND at DaLLas at teNNessee caroLiNa miNNesota iNDiaNapoLis saN FraNcisco The Ravens looked like the The Panthers certainly had The Bucs were 7-0-1 ATS The Colts are clearly not the Dallas more than held their NFL’s best team in their some positive develop- on the road in 2010, and same off ense without Pey- own on the road against the Week 1 dismantling of ments in their opener in Ari- they start their ’11 road slate ton Manning, and it seems Jets in Week 1, as a couple the Steelers. Even though zona, but this game is going with a very winnable game to have aff ected the team of sloppy fourth quarter they’re heading out on the to be a whole lot tougher. in Minnesota. The Vikings psyche on both sides of the mistakes cost them the road, they should have little torched the couldn’t do anything in the . They were dominated game. They rolled up 400 trouble against a fl awed Cards’ secondary in his passing game in their Week in every facet of the game yards of off ense against Tennessee team. The Titans debut, but now he’ll be 1 loss in San Diego (28 net in their opener in Houston, en elite Jets defense, and will likely struggle to run the facing a well-rested Pack- passing yards), making and the Browns have the should do more dam- ball for a second straight ers defense that has elite their off ense completely kind of power running game age against the Niners. week, and relying on QB defensive backs and one of one-dimensional. Tampa and big back in Peyton Hillis San Francisco’s new Alex to win the NFL’s best pass rushes. has enough off ensive fi re- that usually steamrolls the Smith-led West Coast games isn’t going to work. And on the other side of power to simply outscore Colts’ undersized D. There’s off ense couldn’t move the Considering how sharp Joe the ball, the Panthers will Minnesota. And there’s a also a three-star super situ- ball against Seattle, and Flacco was in Week 1, and have to contend with Aaron three-star super situation ation working against the this week should be no how well the Ravens ran Rodgers and Co. without working against the Vikings: Colts: Home teams where diff erent. The Cowboys the ball against an elite run team leader Jon Beason Home teams that had a the line is +3 to -3, off a are explosive enough on defense, they should have (ankle). Carolina was 0-7 losing record the previous road loss, are 36-77 ATS off ense to run away with little trouble moving the ATS coming off a road loss season and are coming off in September games since this one. ball against a Titans defense last season. a road loss are 17-48 ATS 1983. that’s simply undermanned. since 1983 in games where pLay oN: DaLLas -3 pLay oN: greeN Bay -10.5 the line is +3 to -3. pLay oN: cLeVeLaND -3 pLay oN: BaLtimore -5.5 pLay oN: tampa Bay +3

NFL STAFF PICKS STANDINGS *

All Games W L T Pct Last Week NFL Best Bets W L T Pct Last Week

StatFox Scott 10 4 0 71.4% 10-4 StatFox Scott 4 1 0 80.0% 4-1

StatFox Dave 8 6 0 57.1% 8-6 StatFox Gary 3 2 0 60.0% 3-2

StatFox Consensus 8 6 0 57.1% 8-6 StatFox Brian 2 3 0 40.0% 2-3

StatFox Gary 6 8 0 42.9% 6-8 StatFox Dave 2 3 0 40.0% 2-3

StatFox Forecaster 6 8 0 42.9% 6-8

StatFox Brian 5 9 0 35.7% 5-9 * [Standings refl ect games played through Sunday, September 11.]

www.StatFox.com 3 The Platinum Sheet

NFL GAME BREAKDOWNS: WEEK 2

Kansas City ChiefS vs Detroit Lions (-7.5)

• (199) KANSAS CITY (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) at (200) DETROIT (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0)

Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod KANSAS CITY -34.0 17 7 13 18-108 (6.0) 36-22-105 (2.9) 54-213 (3.9) 2-1 41 23 39-163 (4.2) 26-17-201 (7.7) 65-364 (5.6) 0-1 -2 DETROIT +7.0 21 27 25 35-126 (3.6) 33-24-305 (9.2) 68-431 (6.3) 0-1 20 17 16-56 (3.5) 46-29-257 (5.6) 62-313 (5.0) 1-1 +1

Game Breakdown: The Lions can keep their momentum going Betting System: by beating on a Chiefs team that looked like the NFL’s worst in Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - team that had a winning record last season, Week 1. The Lions built on their perfect preseason with an impres- in non-conference games. (31-7 Under) Play = Under the total sive win in Tampa. A healthy QB threw for 305 yards, and Detroit’s suspect secondary held their own against a Series history – Last 5 seasons: solid Bucs passing game. Dating back to last year, they’re on a DETROIT is 0-1 ATS (1-0 SU) vs. KANSAS CITY (0-1 ATS, 1-0 SU at home.) five-game winning streak (SU and ATS), and they were 7-1 ATS at home a year ago. K.C. was exposed again last week, getting StatFox Six Pack: trounced 41-7 by Buffalo at home. They’ve now been outscored DETROIT is 13-3 ATS in all lined games over the L2 seasons. 102-24 in their last three games, all at home. DETROIT is 17-32 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992. DETROIT is 6-0 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the L2 seasons. KANSAS CITY is 21-6 ATS away after a loss by 10 or more points since 1992. Stat F ox KANSAS CITY 18 KANSAS CITY is 21-9 ATS after allowing 35 points or more last game since 1992. F ore c aster : DETROIT 23 KANSAS CITY is 27-10 UNDER in the first two weeks of the season since 1992.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-5.5) vs TENNESSEE TITANS

• (207) BALTIMORE (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (208) TENNESSEE (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1)

Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod BALTIMORE +28.0 26 35 17 31-170 (5.5) 29-17-215 (7.4) 60-385 (6.4) 0-0 7 20 16-66 (4.1) 41-22-246 (6.0) 57-312 (5.5) 4-3 +7 TENNESSEE -2.0 16 14 13 13-43 (3.3) 34-21-249 (7.3) 47-292 (6.2) 0-1 16 20 47-163 (3.5) 24-17-160 (6.7) 71-323 (4.5) 1-0 0

Game Breakdown: The Titans looked out of synch for much of Betting System: their opener in Jacksonville; they’ll need a near perfect effort to Home teams - off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or beat the Ravens, who looked as good as anyone in Week 1. Balti- more straight losses. (48-97 ATS) Play = BALTIMORE against the spread more still has the defense, but it was their offense that impressed in their opening win over the Steelers. QB played one Series history – Last 5 seasons: of the best games of his career, posting a 117.6 passer rating, and TENNESSEE is 2-1 ATS (1-2 SU) vs. BALTIMORE (1-1 ATS, 0-2 SU at home.) the Ravens ran for 170 yards and 5.5 yards per carry against what was the NFL’s top run defense last year. Tennessee mustered just StatFox Six Pack: 43 rushing yards against Jacksonville, but WR Kenny Britt will be TENNESSEE is 7-0 under the 1H total after playing their last game on the road over the L2 seasons. a tough matchup for a short-handed Ravens secondary. TENNESSEE is 6-17 against the 1H line when playing with 6 or less days rest over the L3 seasons. TENNESSEE is 3-14 against the 1H line off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite since 1992. BALTIMORE is 11-2 UNDER away after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better since 1992. Stat F ox BALTIMORE 22 BALTIMORE is 16-6 UNDER against AFC South division opponents since 1992. F ore c aster : TENNESSEE 17 BALTIMORE is 11-3 UNDER off 1 or more straight overs over the L3 seasons.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3) vs INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

• (215) CLEVELAND (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) at (216) INDIANAPOLIS (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1)

Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod CLEVELAND -10.0 19 17 17 26-83 (3.2) 40-19-202 (5.0) 66-285 (4.3) 0-1 27 17 33-139 (4.2) 27-15-155 (5.7) 60-294 (4.9) 0-0 -1 INDIANAPOLIS -27.0 24 7 15 16-64 (4.0) 31-16-172 (5.5) 47-236 (5.0) 2-0 34 26 41-167 (4.1) 24-17-217 (9.0) 65-384 (5.9) 1-2 +1

Game Breakdown: The adjustment to life without Peyton Betting System: Manning has been tough for Indy. They were outmatched on both Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points - off a home loss by 10 or more points against sides of the ball in Houston, but had little chance of a comeback opponent off a road loss. (36-10 Over) Play = Over the total after falling behind early with QB under center. Indy had just 236 yards of offense in Houston. The Browns blew a Series history – Last 5 seasons: game at home against lowly Cincinnati, but it wasn’t as lopsided INDIANAPOLIS is 0-0 ATS (1-0 SU) vs. CLEVELAND (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.) as the 10-point deficit would suggest. They were in control of the game until the fourth quarter. They also allowed a meaningless, StatFox Six Pack: long TD run at the end of the game. Their power running game INDIANAPOLIS is 19-37 ATS at home after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. will have an edge against an Indy defense that can’t stop the run. INDIANAPOLIS is 27-46 ATS after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game since 1992. INDIANAPOLIS is 11-2 OVER off 1 or more consecutive unders over the L3 seasons. CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite since 1992. Stat F ox CLEVELAND 19 CLEVELAND is 53-33 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992. F ore c aster : INDIANAPOLIS 24 CLEVELAND is 17-6 UNDER in dome games since 1992.

4 www.StatFox.com ThE PLATiNuM ShEET

WWW .STAT F OX . COM

oakLand raiderS vs BuFFaLo BiLLS (-4)

• (203) OAKLAND (SU: 0-0, ATS: 0-0) at (204) BUFFALO (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0)

team oFFenSe team deFenSe PdiF SS PPg Fd ruShing PaSSing totaL F-i PPg Fd ruShing PaSSing totaL F-i tod OAKLAND (2010) +2.4 18 26 19 31-156 (5.0) 31-18-199 (6.5) 62-355 (5.7) 1-1 23 18 30-134 (4.5) 29-16-189 (6.4) 59-323 (5.5) 1-1 -2 BUFFALO +34.0 11 41 23 39-163 (4.2) 26-17-201 (7.7) 65-364 (5.6) 0-1 7 13 18-108 (6.0) 36-22-105 (2.9) 54-213 (3.9) 2-1 +2 game Breakdown: The Raiders have been a doormat for AFC key Betting trend: East opponents the past three seasons. They’re 0-6 SU and 3-3 BUFFALO is 8-1 UNDER after allowing 14 points or less last game over the L3 seasons. ATS against the East since 2008, getting outscored 171-100 in those games. The Bills may have to jump their throats, as they did to Kansas City in Week 1, to get the edge in this one. Buf- SerieS hiStory – LaSt 5 SeaSonS: falo made strides to improve their run defense over the off season, BUFFALO is 0-1 ATS (1-0 SU) vs. OAKLAND (0-1 ATS, 1-0 SU at home.) but still allowed 6.0 yards per carry to the Chiefs in their opener. They’ll have to contend with RB Darren McFadden, a similar run- StatFox Six Pack: ner to K.C.’s Jamaal Charles. The Bills were just 2-6 SU and 2-4-2 BUFFALO is 8-1 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins over the L3 seasons. ATS at home a year ago. BUFFALO is 8-0 under the 1H total after allowing 150 or less pass yds in their last game over L3 seasons. BUFFALO is 48-28 over the 1H total as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992. BUFFALO is 31-16 over the 1H total as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. STAT F Ox OAKLAND 24 OAKLAND is 10-2 over the 1H total against conference opponents over the L2 seasons. F O R E c A ST E R : BUFFALO 22 OAKLAND is 21-9 under the 1H total in the first two weeks of the season since 1992.

tamPa Bay BuccaneerS vs minneSota VikingS (-3)

• (213) TAMPA BAY (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) at (214) MINNESOTA (SU: 0-1, ATS: 1-0)

team oFFenSe team deFenSe PdiF SS PPg Fd ruShing PaSSing totaL F-i PPg Fd ruShing PaSSing totaL F-i tod TAMPA BAY -7.0 20 20 17 16-56 (3.5) 46-29-257 (5.6) 62-313 (5.0) 1-1 27 25 35-126 (3.6) 33-24-305 (9.2) 68-431 (6.3) 0-1 -1 MINNESOTA -7.0 26 17 10 26-159 (6.1) 15-7-28 (1.9) 41-187 (4.6) 0-1 24 31 27-77 (2.9) 48-33-330 (6.9) 75-407 (5.4) 0-2 +1 game Breakdown: The Bucs were road warriors a year ago, and Betting SyStem: they have a chance to notch a victory against a rebuilding Vikings Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 - off a road loss, team that had a losing record last season. (17-48 team. Tampa went 6-2 SU and 7-0-1 ATS away from home last ATS) Play = TAMPA BAY against the spread year. Minnesota is coming off an ugly opener in San Diego. They were outgained 407-187, QB Donovan McNabb threw for 39 yards, SerieS hiStory – LaSt 5 SeaSonS: and the Vikes dropped back 17 times and had 28 net passing MINNESOTA is 0-1 ATS (0-1 SU) vs. TAMPA BAY (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.) yards. While Tampa won’t give up another 300-yard passing day like they did in Week 1, the Bucs struggled against the run a year StatFox Six Pack: ago and could have a long day against Adrian Peterson. They al- MINNESOTA is 16-3 OVER at home after allowing 300 or more pass yards in their last game since 1992. lowed 126 yards to a Detroit team that lacks a power runner. MINNESOTA is 28-12 OVER after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992. MINNESOTA is 15-4 OVER after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game since 1992. TAMPA BAY is 7-0 ATS as a road underdog over the L2 seasons. STAT F Ox TAMPA BAY 22 TAMPA BAY is 7-0 ATS in road lined games over the L2 seasons. F O R E c A ST E R : MINNESOTA 19 TAMPA BAY is 29-9 UNDER in the first two weeks of the season since 1992.

SuPER SiTuATiONS

Situational analysis uncovers • Play Against - Home teams • Play Against - Home teams • Play Against - Home teams conditions and patterns where where the line is +3 to -3 (MIN- where the line is +3 to -3 (CAROLINA, NEW ORLEANS, teams have consistently outper- NESOTA) - off a road loss, team (ATLANTA, INDIANAPOLIS, TENNESSEE) - off a road loss, formed or underperformed their that had a losing record last MINNESOTA) - off a road loss, in in the fi rst month of the season, normal levels. These systems are season September games after closing out last season with not team specifi c—the principle 2 or more straight losses is that teams fall into patterns re- • The situation’s record is 48-17 • The situation’s record is 77-36 gardless of personnel (i.e. good since 1983 (73.8%, +29.3 units). since 1983 (68.1%, +37.4 units). • The situation’s record is 97-48 passing teams, teams seeking since 1983 (66.9%, +44.2 units). revenge, cold teams on a losing rating = *** rating = *** streak, etc.). rating = *****

www.StatFox.com 5 The Platinum Sheet

NFL GAME BREAKDOWNS: WEEK 2

CHICAGO BEARS vs NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-7)

• (197) CHICAGO (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (198) NEW ORLEANS (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1)

Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod CHICAGO +18.0 22 30 17 27-88 (3.3) 32-22-289 (9.0) 59-377 (6.4) 0-1 12 20 14-110 (7.9) 47-31-276 (5.9) 61-386 (6.3) 2-1 +2 NEW ORLEANS -8.0 34 34 27 21-81 (3.9) 49-32-396 (8.1) 70-477 (6.8) 1-0 42 24 27-103 (3.8) 35-27-296 (8.5) 62-399 (6.4) 0-0 -1

Game Breakdown: The Saints are trying to rebound from a Betting System: Week 1 heartbreaker, but they’ll have to do it short-handed. WR Home favorites - good team from last season - outscored opponents by 4 or more points/game, after Marques Colston (shoulder) is out, and slot receiver Lance Moore scoring 30 points or more last game. (33-9 ATS) Play = NEW ORLEANS against the spread (groin) is questionable at best. It’s problematic, considering the Bears’ stout run defense and bend-don’t-break pass D. Chicago Series history – Last 5 seasons: was 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS on the road last year, and their front NEW ORLEANS is 0-3 ATS (0-3 SU) vs. CHICAGO (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.) four could create further problems for against the Saints’ leaky offensive line. The Bears have won four in a row SU StatFox Six Pack: against the Saints (2-0-2 ATS) dating back to 2005 (though three NEW ORLEANS is 13-31 ATS at home after allowing 6+ yards/play in their previous game since 1992. of those games were at Chicago in December/Janaury). NEW ORLEANS is 41-62 ATS as a home favorite since 1992. NEW ORLEANS is 47-69 ATS at home against conference opponents since 1992. CHICAGO is 14-27 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game since 1992. Stat F ox CHICAGO 23 CHICAGO is 9-1 UNDER as a road underdog over the L3 seasons. F ore c aster : NEW ORLEANS 25 CHICAGO is 15-5 UNDER as an underdog over the L3 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS vs NEW YORK JETS (-10)

• (201) JACKSONVILLE (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (202) NY JETS (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1)

Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod JACKSONVILLE +2.0 18 16 20 47-163 (3.5) 24-17-160 (6.7) 71-323 (4.5) 1-0 14 13 13-43 (3.3) 34-21-249 (7.3) 47-292 (6.2) 0-1 0 NY JETS +3.0 21 27 19 16-45 (2.8) 44-26-315 (7.2) 60-360 (6.0) 1-1 24 21 26-64 (2.5) 36-23-326 (9.1) 62-390 (6.3) 2-1 +1

Game Breakdown: The Jets might be able to overwhelm new Key BEtting Trend: Jaguars QB Luke McCown. McCown, who was anointed the starter NY JETS are 4-15 ATS at home in the first two weeks of the season since 1992. just a week before the season opener, was solid in Week 1, but that was against a very suspect Tennessee defense. He’ll have his hands full against the Jets and Rex Ryan’s exotic blitz schemes. Series history – Last 5 seasons: The Jets also have an edge with playmakers in the passing game NY JETS is 0-2 ATS (0-2 SU) vs. JACKSONVILLE (0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU at home.) against a Jaguars pass defense that continues to struggle. They were torched by Kenny Britt in Week 1. But the Jaguars came to StatFox Six Pack: New York in 2009 and stole a 24-22 win against the Jets in Ryan’s NY JETS are 10-22 ATS at home in September games since 1992. first season as their head coach. NY JETS are 15-5 OVER in all lined games over the L2 seasons. NY JETS are 40-20 UNDER after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Jack Del Rio is 18-28 ATS off a division game as coach of JACKSONVILLE. Stat F ox JACKSONVILLE 21 JACKSONVILLE is 7-0 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the L2 seasons. F ore c aster : NY JETS 24 JACKSONVILLE is 7-0 OVER after playing a game at home over the L2 seasons.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-14)

• (209) SEATTLE (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) at (210) PITTSBURGH (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1)

Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod SEATTLE -16.0 18 17 18 22-64 (2.9) 37-21-155 (4.2) 59-219 (3.7) 2-1 33 12 32-85 (2.7) 20-15-124 (6.2) 52-209 (4.0) 0-0 -3 PITTSBURGH -28.0 32 7 20 16-66 (4.1) 41-22-246 (6.0) 57-312 (5.5) 4-3 35 17 31-170 (5.5) 29-17-215 (7.4) 60-385 (6.4) 0-0 -7

Game Breakdown: The Steelers were uncharacteristically Betting System: sloppy in their opener in Baltimore, but they should have a much Home favorites - after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after trailing in their previous game easier time in their home opener against Seattle. Pittsburgh is by 14 or more points at the half. (35-75 ATS) Play = SEATTLE against the spread 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS at home against NFC teams since 2006. The Seahawks had just 219 yards of offense in San Francisco in Week 1, Series history – Last 5 seasons: and they don’t have the defense to force the kind of mistakes the PITTSBURGH is 1-0 ATS (1-0 SU) vs. SEATTLE (1-0 ATS, 1-0 SU at home.) Steelers made against the Ravens (seven turnovers). Since 2009, Seattle has been one of the NFL’s worst road teams (3-14 SU and StatFox Six Pack: ATS away from home). PITTSBURGH is 11-2 OVER off a division game over the L3 seasons. PITTSBURGH is 57-31 OVER at home in games played on a grass field since 1992. PITTSBURGH is 35-18 OVER in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1992. SEATTLE is 2-14 ATS as a road underdog over the L3 seasons. Stat F ox SEATTLE 18 SEATTLE is 13-2 OVER as an underdog over the L2 seasons. F ore c aster : PITTSBURGH 31 SEATTLE is 44-17 OVER after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992.

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ariZona cardinaLS vs waShington redSkinS (-4.5)

• (205) ARIZONA (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (206) WASHINGTON (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0)

team oFFenSe team deFenSe PdiF SS PPg Fd ruShing PaSSing totaL F-i PPg Fd ruShing PaSSing totaL F-i tod ARIZONA +7.0 9 28 15 25-99 (4.0) 27-18-295 (10.9) 52-394 (7.6) 1-0 21 26 27-74 (2.7) 37-24-403 (10.9) 64-477 (7.5) 0-1 0 WASHINGTON +14.0 21 28 21 26-74 (2.8) 34-21-258 (7.6) 60-332 (5.5) 1-0 14 15 20-75 (3.8) 32-18-240 (7.5) 52-315 (6.1) 0-1 0 game Breakdown: It will be a second straight matchup with Betting SyStem: a weak pass defense for Washington, who could continue to get Any team against the total - poor passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 53% or by with under center. After throwing for 305 yards worse, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game. (60-29 Under) Play = Under the total and two against an injury-depleted Giants secondary, Grossman will be going against a rebuilt Cardinals pass defense SerieS hiStory – LaSt 5 SeaSonS: that allowed 422 passing yards to raw rookie passer Cam Newton WASHINGTON is 1-1 ATS (2-0 SU) vs. ARIZONA (1-1 ATS, 2-0 SU at home.) in their opener. The Cards went just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS on the road a year ago, though they’re clearly better with StatFox Six Pack: taking over under center. He threw for 309 yards and two touch- WASHINGTON is 27-44 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992. downs against the Panthers in his Arizona debut. WASHINGTON is 32-54 ATS as a home favorite since 1992. WASHINGTON is 11-24 ATS at home in the first month of the season since 1992. ARIZONA is 1-8 ATS off a home win over the L3 seasons. STAT F Ox ARIZONA 18 ARIZONA is 3-11 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the L3 seasons. F O R E c A ST E R : WASHINGTON 26 Ken Whisenhunt is 36-18 OVER when playing with 6 or less days rest as coach of ARIZONA.

green Bay PackerS (-10.5) vs caroLina PantherS

• (211) GREEN BAY (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (212) CAROLINA (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1)

team oFFenSe team deFenSe PdiF SS PPg Fd ruShing PaSSing totaL F-i PPg Fd ruShing PaSSing totaL F-i tod GREEN BAY +8.0 24 42 24 27-103 (3.8) 35-27-296 (8.5) 62-399 (6.4) 0-0 34 27 21-81 (3.9) 49-32-396 (8.1) 70-477 (6.8) 1-0 +1 CAROLINA -7.0 8 21 26 27-74 (2.7) 37-24-403 (10.9) 64-477 (7.5) 0-1 28 15 25-99 (4.0) 27-18-295 (10.9) 52-394 (7.6) 1-0 0 game Breakdown: Coming off their season-opening Thursday Betting SyStem: night win, the Packers will be well-rested and ready to pounce on Home teams - off a road loss, in the fi rst month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or the young Panthers. Green Bay was 8-4 ATS on the road last sea- more straight losses. (48-97 ATS) Play = GREEN BAY against the spread son, while the Panthers were just 2-6 ATS at home. Carolina was also 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS against teams that fi nished 2010 with a SerieS hiStory – LaSt 5 SeaSonS: winning record a year ago. While QB Cam Newton threw for 422 CAROLINA is 1-1 ATS (1-1 SU) vs. GREEN BAY (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.) yards in his fi rst career start, the Green Bay pass defense includes an elite pass rush and three outstanding cornerbacks. And the StatFox Six Pack: Carolina D will be shorthanded with LB Jon Beason, the leader of CAROLINA is 0-8 ATS in September games over the L3 seasons. the unit, out with an ankle injury. CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS off a road loss over the L2 seasons. CAROLINA is 11-2 UNDER at home when playing with 6 or less days rest over the L3 seasons. GREEN BAY is 25-12 ATS in all lined games over the L3 seasons. STAT F Ox GREEN BAY 30 GREEN BAY is 10-0 UNDER away off a home win over the L3 seasons. F O R E c A ST E R : CAROLINA 14 GREEN BAY is 8-1 UNDER away against conference opponents over the L2 seasons.

SiTuATiONAL TEAM POWER TRENDS

The StatFox Situational Team Power Trends uncover certain situations where a team outperforms or underperforms their normal level of play. Unlike the StatFox Super Situations, all trend records listed apply to the team in question. These trends are great indicators of how teams react to certain situations (i.e. coming o a close win, against division opponents, after a loss giving up a high number passing yards, etc.)

• SEATTLE is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in road • CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) off a road • ATLANTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after lined games over the last 3 seasons loss over the last 2 seasons 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons The average score was SEATTLE 16.2, The average score was CAROLINA 9, OPPONENT 31.2 OPPONENT 29.6 The average score was ATLANTA 29.8, OPPONENT 19.5 PLAY ON PITTSBURGH PLAY ON GREEN BAY rating = *** rating = ** PLAY ON ATLANTA rating = **

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NFL GAME BREAKDOWNS: WEEK 2

DALLAS COWBOYS (-3) vs SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

• (217) DALLAS (SU: 0-1, ATS: 1-0) at (218) SAN FRANCISCO (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0)

Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod DALLAS -3.0 27 24 21 26-64 (2.5) 36-23-326 (9.1) 62-390 (6.3) 2-1 27 19 16-45 (2.8) 44-26-315 (7.2) 60-360 (6.0) 1-1 -1 SAN FRANCISCO +16.0 12 33 12 32-85 (2.7) 20-15-124 (6.2) 52-209 (4.0) 0-0 17 18 22-64 (2.9) 37-21-155 (4.2) 59-219 (3.7) 2-1 +3

Game Breakdown: The Niners used defense and special teams Betting System: to win in Week 1, but they’ll be dealing with a much more explo- Any team - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent after a road game where both teams sive offense when they face the Cowboys. Facing the Jets’ elite scored 24 or more points. (5-24 ATS) Play = DALLAS against the spread defense on the road in Week 1, and with top receiver Dez Bryant struggling with cramps, the Cowboys still rolled up a respectable Series history – Last 5 seasons: 400 yards of offense. The Niners needed two late kick return SAN FRANCISCO is 0-1 ATS (0-1 SU) vs. DALLAS (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.) touchdowns from Ted Ginn to pull away from Seattle, and their of- fense was as weak as advertised. They managed just 209 yards of StatFox Six Pack: offense against a soft Seahawks defense. San Fran has lost their SAN FRANCISCO is 25-41 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992. last three matchups, SU and ATS, against non-division opponents. SAN FRANCISCO is 0-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the L2 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 48-27 OVER in a home game where the total is between 35.5-42 points since 1992. DALLAS is 1-8 ATS as a favorite over the L2 seasons. Stat F ox DALLAS 22 DALLAS is 14-3 OVER in all lined games over the L2 seasons. F ore c aster : SAN FRANCISCO 26 DALLAS is 10-2 OVER against conference opponents over the L2 seasons.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS vs NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6)

• (221) SAN DIEGO (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) at (222) NEW ENGLAND (SU: 0-0, ATS: 0-0)

Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod SAN DIEGO +7.0 19 24 31 27-77 (2.9) 48-33-330 (6.9) 75-407 (5.4) 0-2 17 10 26-159 (6.1) 15-7-28 (1.9) 41-187 (4.6) 0-1 -1 NEW ENGLAND (2010) +11.6 23 32 21 28-123 (4.3) 32-21-242 (7.4) 60-365 (6.1) 0-0 20 21 26-109 (4.2) 37-24-255 (6.8) 63-364 (5.8) 1-1 +27

Game Breakdown: The Chargers are once again facing some Betting System: special teams issues as they head to New England, a team they Any team against the total - marginal winning team from last season (51% to 60%) playing a team that lost to in large part due to some terrible special teams play a year had a winning record, in conference games. (97-51 Under) Play = Under the total ago (San Diego outgained them 363-179, but still lost 23-20 at home). K Nate Kaeding (knee) is likely to miss the game. In Week Series history – Last 5 seasons: 1, the Chargers outgained Minnesota 407-187, but after allowing NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 ATS (4-1 SU) vs. SAN DIEGO (1-1 ATS, 2-0 SU at home.) a TD on the opening kickoff and missing Kaeding, they needed a fourth-quarter comeback to pull out the win. The Chargers were StatFox Six Pack: just 2-6 ATS on the road a year ago. The Patriots were 8-1 SU at NEW ENGLAND is 14-3 OVER in all lined games over the L2 seasons. home, but only 4-4-1 ATS. NEW ENGLAND is 12-2 OVER as a favorite over the L2 seasons. NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the L2 seasons. SAN DIEGO is 49-31 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992. Stat F ox SAN DIEGO 28 SAN DIEGO is 21-8 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 since 1992. F ore c aster : NEW ENGLAND 24 Norv Turner is 19-6 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points.

CINCINNATI BENGALS vs DENVER BRONCOS (-6)

• (223) CINCINNATI (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (224) DENVER (SU: 0-0, ATS: 0-0)

Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod CINCINNATI +10.0 14 27 17 33-139 (4.2) 27-15-155 (5.7) 60-294 (4.9) 0-0 17 17 26-83 (3.2) 40-19-202 (5.0) 66-285 (4.3) 0-1 +1 DENVER (2010) -7.9 20 22 19 25-96 (3.9) 36-21-252 (7.0) 61-348 (5.7) 1-1 29 21 33-155 (4.7) 31-19-236 (7.5) 64-391 (6.1) 0-1 -9

Game Breakdown: The Bengals offense seemed to be better Betting System: off with veteran under center, but there’s a bet- Any team against the total - in conference games, first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season ter than 50/50 chance that rookie is healthy enough with 3 or more straight spread covers. (78-43 Under) Play = Under the total to start in Denver. The Bengals had just 120 yards of offense with Dalton under center in the first half against a rebuilding Cleveland Series history – Last 5 seasons: defense. Gradkowski led two fourth quarter drives DENVER is 1-1 ATS (2-0 SU) vs. CINCINNATI (0-1 ATS, 1-0 SU at home.) in their Week 1 win over the Browns. The Broncos’ defense is rebuilding, similar to Cleveland’s, but their offense is much more StatFox Six Pack: explosive, especially with their vertical passing game. DENVER is 70-44 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992. DENVER is 178-134 OVER in all lined games since 1992. DENVER is 82-52 OVER as a home favorite since 1992. CINCINNATI is 49-84 ATS in the first half of the season since 1992. Stat F ox CINCINNATI 27 CINCINNATI is 100-132 ATS against conference opponents since 1992. F ore c aster : DENVER 25 CINCINNATI is 58-82 ATS off 1 or more straight overs since 1992.

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w w w .St a t F o x . c o m

HOUSTON TEXANS vs MIAMI DOLPHINS

• (219) HOUSTON (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (220) MIAMI (SU: 0-0, ATS: 0-0)

Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod HOUSTON +27.0 20 34 26 41-167 (4.1) 24-17-217 (9.0) 65-384 (5.9) 1-2 7 15 16-64 (4.0) 31-16-172 (5.5) 47-236 (5.0) 2-0 -1 MIAMI (2010) -3.8 24 17 19 28-103 (3.7) 35-21-220 (6.3) 63-323 (5.1) 1-1 21 16 28-100 (3.6) 31-18-209 (6.7) 59-309 (5.2) 0-1 -11

Game Breakdown: The Texans have established themselves as Key Betting Trend: the AFC South’s favorite, but now they have to prove they can HOUSTON is 4-18 ATS away off a home win since 1992. play on the road. The Texans were 2-6 SU and 2-5-1 ATS away from home a year ago. Their revamped defense was up to the task against the -less Colts in Week 1, and they face Series history – Last 5 seasons: another underwhelming offense in the -led Dolphins. MIAMI is 2-2 ATS (0-4 SU) vs. HOUSTON (0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU at home.) Miami has the defense to potentially hold Houston in check though, especially if RB Arian Foster (hamstring) is out again or StatFox Six Pack: limited. The Dolphins don’t have the passing offense to really test MIAMI is 7-0 OVER at home in the first half of the season over the L3 seasons. the Texans’ new secondary. MIAMI is 65-89 ATS at home in games played on a grass field since 1992. Tony Sparano is 5-14 against the 1H line at home against conference opponents as coach of MIAMI. HOUSTON is 7-21 ATS off a home win since 1992. Stat F ox HOUSTON 21 HOUSTON is 14-31 ATS away after playing a game at home since 1992. F ore c aster : MIAMI 21 HOUSTON is 12-3 OVER away in September games since 1992.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3) vs ATLANTA FALCONS

• (225) PHILADELPHIA (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (226) ATLANTA (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1)

Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod PHILADELPHIA +18.0 10 31 27 31-237 (7.6) 32-14-167 (5.2) 63-404 (6.4) 1-0 13 21 26-154 (5.9) 36-19-181 (5.0) 62-335 (5.4) 1-0 0 ATLANTA -18.0 26 12 20 14-110 (7.9) 47-31-276 (5.9) 61-386 (6.3) 2-1 30 17 27-88 (3.3) 32-22-289 (9.0) 59-377 (6.4) 0-1 -2

Game Breakdown: returns to Atlanta as a starter Betting System: for the first time, and he and the Eagles have a chance to run it Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 - off a road loss, in September games. (36-77 ATS) Play = PHILA- up against a shell-shocked Falcons team. Even with Vick and the DELPHIA against the spread passing game a bit out of sync with drops, they still ran up 404 yards of offense in St. Louis in Week 1, and the Eagles cruised Series history – Last 5 seasons: to a 31-13 road win. Atlanta’s offense moved the ball in Chicago, ATLANTA is 0-4 ATS (0-4 SU) vs. PHILADELPHIA (0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU at home.) despite just six points from their offense they still had 386 yards of offense on the slow track in Chicago, and their power running StatFox Six Pack: game could take advantage of Philly’s weakness: their linebackers. ATLANTA is 10-2 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest over the L2 seasons. RB Michael Turner had 100 yards on 10 carries in Chicago. ATLANTA is 9-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the L3 seasons. ATLANTA is 23-6 OVER at home after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992. Andy Reid is 99-60 ATS against conference opponents as coach of PHILADELPHIA. Stat F ox PHILADELPHIA 24 Andy Reid is 11-2 ATS away after gaining 175 or more rush yards last game as coach of PHILADELPHIA. F ore c aster : ATLANTA 26 Andy Reid is 120-88 ATS in all lined games as coach of PHILADELPHIA.

ST. LOUIS RAMS vs NEW YORK GIANTS

• (227) ST LOUIS (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) at (228) NY GIANTS (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1)

Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod ST LOUIS -18.0 25 13 21 26-154 (5.9) 36-19-181 (5.0) 62-335 (5.4) 1-0 31 27 31-237 (7.6) 32-14-167 (5.2) 63-404 (6.4) 1-0 0 NY GIANTS -14.0 17 14 15 20-75 (3.8) 32-18-240 (7.5) 52-315 (6.1) 0-1 28 21 26-74 (2.8) 34-21-258 (7.6) 60-332 (5.5) 1-0 0

Game Breakdown: Both the Rams and Giants are hurting head- Betting System: ing into this one. The Rams will definitely be without slot receiver Favorites - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS losses. (55- Danny Amendola (shoulder), and the status of QB 26 ATS) Play = NY GIANTS against the spread (finger) will be up in the air. They’ll be facing a Giants defense that’s been ravaged by injuries in the secondary, to the point that Series history – Last 5 seasons: they allowed Rex Grossman to torch them for 305 passing yards NY GIANTS is 1-0 ATS (1-0 SU) vs. ST LOUIS (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.) in Week 1. If Bradford is out, the Rams become unlikely to take advantage of that Giants secondary. The Rams defense will be StatFox Six Pack: prepared for QB and company. Head coach Steve Tom Coughlin is 33-18 ATS in the first half of the season as coach of NY GIANTS. Spagnuolo was the Giants’ defensive coordinator in 2007 and ’08. NY GIANTS are 18-7 OVER against conference opponents over the L3 seasons. NY GIANTS are 81-57 UNDER off 1 or more straight overs since 1992. ST LOUIS is 5-15 ATS after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game since 1992. Stat F ox ST. LOUIS 16 ST LOUIS is 29-48 ATS after a loss by 10 or more points since 1992. F ore c aster : NY GIANTS 25 ST LOUIS is 27-47 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game since 1992.

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Handicapping Insight College Football Mismatches The first month of the college football season is littered with mismatches, including a large number of games with point spreads of 30+, 40+ and even higher. Since the start of the 2008 season, there have been 166 games in which an FBS school has been favored by 30 points or more. In 44 of these games, the line was 40 or more. Favorites have just a slight 85-78-3 (52%) edge ATS. We thoroughly examined these games to find trends involving home teams, road teams, favorites, underdogs, totals and movements in lines and totals. If not specified, the study includes all games with spreads of 30 or more. Here are eight powerful trends that we were able to uncover:

Alabama RB Trent Richardson had 87 yards on 11 carries in his team’s 53-7 win over North Texas as a 37-point favorite in 2009. | 1 | The Crimson Tide opened as a 45-point favorite for this Saturday’s game at home against the not-so Mean Green. In 17 games in which the road team is favored by 30 points | 3 | | 5 | | 7 | or more, road teams are 10-6- 1 ATS (63%). The road teams In 4 games in which the road In 26 games in which the In 5 games in which the final are 17-0 SU in these games, team is favored by 40 points home team is favored by 30 total is more than 10 points winning every game by 17 or more, road teams are a points or more and the total lower than the opening total, points or more. perfect 4-0 ATS (100%). is 60 points or higher, road favorites are 4-1 ATS (80%). underdogs are 18-9 ATS (67%). | 2 | | 4 | | 6 | | 8 | In 11 games in which the In 17 games in which the road In 13 games in which the home team is favored by 30 team is favored by 30 points In 5 games in which the final final total is 4 to 10 points points or more and the total or more, the UNDER is 11-6 total is more than 10 points (inclusive) higher than the is 65 points or higher, road (65%). higher than the opening total, opening total, favorites are underdogs are 7-3 ATS (70%). underdogs are 4-1 ATS (80%). 12-3 ATS (80%).

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college football power ratings

The StatFox Power Ratings are generated by a formula that weighs such Key: OL Opening Line key factors as point margins, strength of schedule and team stats. Plus, our PR StatFox Power Rating (adjusted for home field advantage) exclusive home-field advantage points are built into each home team’s rating PRL Calculated Power Rating Line and corresponding line. The ratings are not as reactive as those found elsewhere, Edge The difference between the Power Rating Line and thus have proven over the years to be an excellent long-term football and the actual opening line handicapping tool. W/L Keep track of the winners and losers

1. TCU (-27) over Louisiana-Monroe 18.0 4. TEMPLE (+11) over Penn State 10.0 TOP STATFOX POWER 2. Nevada (-6) over SAN JOSE STATE 17.0 5. CONNECTICUT (-5) over Iowa State 10.0 RATING EDGES: 3. Auburn (+4) over CLEMSON 16.0 6. Utep (-2) over NEW MEXICO STATE 9.0

Thurs - 9/15, 8:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 3:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 7:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 101 LSU -4.5 55 -1 131 WISCONSIN -17 58 -14 157 LOUISVILLE 37 4 102 MISSISSIPPI STATE 54 3.5 132 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 44 3 158 KENTUCKY -8 41 -4

Fri - 9/16, 8:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 3:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 7:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 103 BOISE STATE -19.5 62 -25 5.5 133 MIAMI OHIO 34 -3 6 159 HOUSTON -7.5 36 -3 104 TOLEDO 37 134 MINNESOTA -3 31 160 LOUISIANA TECH 33 4.5

Fri - 9/16, 8:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 3:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 7:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 105 IOWA STATE 33 135 TENNESSEE 48 161 MARSHALL 29 106 CONNECTICUT -5 48 -15 10 136 FLORIDA -8.5 57 -9 0.5 162 OHIO -2 32 -3 1

Sat - 9/17, 12:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 3:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 7:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 107 WEST VIRGINIA 46 137 MICHIGAN STATE 39 163 IDAHO 24 6 108 MARYLAND -1 48 -2 1 138 NOTRE DAME -5 46 -7 2 164 TEXAS A&M -36 54 -30

Sat - 9/17, 12:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 3:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 7:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 109 AUBURN 55 -12 16 139 VIRGINIA 32 167 ARIZONA STATE -2.5 45 110 CLEMSON -4 43 140 NORTH CAROLINA -8.5 47 -15 6.5 168 ILLINOIS 50 -5 7.5

Sat - 9/17, 12:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 3:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 7:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 111 PITTSBURGH 40 141 TEXAS -3.5 42 -7 3.5 169 KENT STATE 22 112 IOWA -2 49 -9 7 142 UCLA 35 170 KANSAS STATE -14 39 -17 3

Sat - 9/17, 12:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 3:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 8:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 113 AKRON 10 143 WASHINGTON 38 5.5 171 SYRACUSE 35 1.5 114 CINCINNATI -31 41 -31 0 144 NEBRASKA -18.5 51 -13 172 USC -14.5 48 -13

Sat - 9/17, 12:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 3:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 8:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 117 EASTERN MICHIGAN 8 145 TEXAS TECH -18 39 -24 6 173 OKLAHOMA -3.5 61 -5 1.5 118 MICHIGAN -28.5 39 -31 2.5 146 NEW MEXICO 15 174 FLORIDA STATE 56

Sat - 9/17, 12:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 3:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 8:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 119 PENN STATE -11 42 -1 147 NORTHWESTERN 33 -2 177 OHIO STATE 55 -7 8 120 TEMPLE 41 10 148 ARMY 31 178 MIAMI FLORIDA -1 48

Sat - 9/17, 12:20 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 4:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 9:15 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 123 MISSISSIPPI 35 -6 6 149 NEVADA -6 43 -23 17 179 UTAH 44 124 VANDERBILT Pk 29 150 SAN JOSE STATE 20 180 BYU -6.5 52 -8 1.5

Sat - 9/17, 12:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 4:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 10:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 125 DUKE 28 151 TULANE 13 181 OKLAHOMA STATE -11.5 55 -10 126 BOSTON COLLEGE -7.5 39 -11 3.5 152 UAB -11.5 29 -16 4.5 182 TULSA 45 1.5

Sat - 9/17, 12:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 6:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 10:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 127 KANSAS 29 153 NAVY 37 0.5 183 HAWAII -19.5 36 -19 128 GEORGIA TECH -14 48 -19 5 154 SOUTH CAROLINA -17.5 54 -17 184 UNLV 17 0.5

Sat - 9/17, 1:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 6:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 10:45 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 129 COLORADO STATE 15 155 WASHINGTON STATE 32 185 STANFORD -10 65 -18 8 130 COLORADO -7.5 31 -16 8.5 156 SAN DIEGO STATE -8 43 -11 3 186 ARIZONA 47

12 www.StatFox.com See page 23 for the remainder of the College Football Power Ratings The PlaTinum SheeT

PreSenTS The weeK’S beST beTS

WEEK 3 COLLEGE FOOTBALL FEATURED MATCHUPS StatFox StatFox DAVE StatFox GARY StatFox FORECASTER StatFox CONSENSUS [ (BB) = BEST BET ] StatFox SCOTT StatFox BRIAN • (101) LSU at (102) MISSISSIPPI STATE +3 LSU MISSISSIPPI STATE LSU MISSISSIPPI STATE MISSISSIPPI STATE MISSISSIPPI STATE • (103) BOISE STATE at (104) TOLEDO +17 BOISE STATE TOLEDO TOLEDO BOISE STATE TOLEDO TOLEDO • (105) IOWA STATE at (106) CONNECTICUT -4½ CONNECTICUT CONNECTICUT IOWA STATE CONNECTICUT IOWA STATE IOWA STATE • (107) WEST VIRGINIA at (108) MARYLAND -1 MARYLAND (BB) MARYLAND (BB) WEST VIRGINIA WEST VIRGINIA (BB) WEST VIRGINIA WEST VIRGINIA • (109) AUBURN at (110) CLEMSON -3½ CLEMSON AUBURN CLEMSON (BB) AUBURN AUBURN AUBURN • (111) PITTSBURGH at (112) IOWA -3½ IOWA (BB) IOWA (BB) IOWA PITTSBURGH PITTSBURGH IOWA • (135) TENNESSEE at (136) FLORIDA -9 TENNESSEE TENNESSEE TENNESSEE (BB) TENNESSEE TENNESSEE TENNESSEE • (137) MICHIGAN STATE at (138) NOTRE DAME -6 MICHIGAN STATE NOTRE DAME MICHIGAN STATE MICHIGAN STATE (BB) NOTRE DAME MICHIGAN STATE • (141) TEXAS at (142) UCLA +3 TEXAS UCLA (BB) UCLA TEXAS UCLA UCLA • (143) WASHINGTON at (144) NEBRASKA -17½ NEBRASKA WASHINGTON NEBRASKA NEBRASKA WASHINGTON NEBRASKA • (167) ARIZONA STATE at (168) ILLINOIS +2 ILLINOIS ILLINOIS (BB) ILLINOIS ILLINOIS ILLINOIS ILLINOIS • (171) SYRACUSE at (172) USC -14½ USC (BB) USC (BB) USC SYRACUSE SYRACUSE USC • (173) OKLAHOMA at (174) FLORIDA STATE +3 FLORIDA STATE OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA (BB) OKLAHOMA (BB) FLORIDA ST OKLAHOMA • (177) OHIO STATE at (178) MIAMI FLORIDA +1 MIAMI FLORIDA MIAMI FLORIDA OHIO ST (BB) OHIO ST (BB) OHIO ST OHIO ST • (179) UTAH at (180) BYU -6 BYU (BB) BYU BYU (BB) UTAH BYU BYU • (185) STANFORD at (186) ARIZONA +10 STANFORD (BB) ARIZONA STANFORD STANFORD (BB) STANFORD STANFORD

9/17/2011 9/17/2011 9/17/2011 9/17/2011 9/17/2011 weST Virginia michigan STaTe oKlahoma ohio STaTe STanforD at marylanD at noTre Dame at floriDa STaTe at miami floriDa at ariZona West Virginia is starting Not many expected the Irish This spread seems very low. Despite the expected Stanford has won six of the to show signs of being to start out 0-3, but they One game does not make returns of QB Jacory Harris, past eight meetings (SU more comfortable in Dana will be very fortunate to a season, but the Sooners WR Travis Benjamin and and ATS) against Arizona— Holgorsen’s complicated avoid this fate. Notre Dame were tremendous in their LB Sean Spence, the Hur- including last year’s 42-17 system with a second-half allowed 28 fourth-quarter opener, allowing just 14 ricanes still have signifi cant beating—and is 5-2 ATS in explosion of 45-0 over points to a mediocre Michi- points to a Tulsa team that players suspended/injured. its past seven trips to the Norfolk State last week. gan squad, and this Spar- returned its starting QB Harris does not usually hurt Tucson desert. Stanford QB WVU is 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in tans team has allowed only from the fi fth-best off ense strong defenses, evidenced is 44-of-67 for the past fi ve meetings with six points and 302 yards in in FBS last year (506 YPG). by his 4 in a 722 yards, 5 TD and 1 INT in Maryland, outscoring the two games, albeit to weak Oklahoma’s off ense racked 36-24 loss at Ohio State last two career games against Terrapins by an average of opponents in Youngstown up 663 yards as junior year. And with the Buck- the Wildcats. The FoxSheets 31 to 18. Mountaineers QB St. and Florida Atlantic. Un- Dominique Whaley rumbled eyes’ excellent run defense provide a rare four-star lit up Maryland like the Irish turnover twins for 131 yards and 4 TD. The (81 yards allowed on 57 trend urging bettors to fade for 268 yards, 4 TD and of Tommy Rees and Dayne Sooners pummeled FSU last carries), the ‘Canes fate in the Wildcats: Play AGAINST 0 INT last year, while the Crist, State QB year 47-17 as this game rests on the er- - A home team (ARIZONA) defense limited the Terps has 41 TD and 20 INT in his threw for 380 yards and 4 ratic arm of Harris. Miami’s - after allowing 37 points or to minus-10 rushing yards, career. MSU has dominated TD, but only one to his star defense allowed a hefty 499 more last game against op- thanks in large part to eight this series recently, going receiver Ryan Broyles. FSU yards to Maryland on Labor ponent after 2 straight wins WVU sacks. The Mountain- 11-6 SU (12-4-1 ATS) versus isn’t a good enough running Day. OSU is 22-6 ATS (79%) by 28 or more points. (28-4 eers are rarely an underdog, Notre Dame since 1992, team (4.0 YPC vs. UL- in their past 28 games when over the last 10 seasons.) but have gone 6-1 ATS when including 6-2 SU (7-1 ATS) Monroe and Charleston So.) favored, and 16-6 ATS (73%) (87.5%, +23.6 units. getting points since 2007. in South Bend. to keep this game close. on the road since 2007. Rating = 4*).

Play on: weST Virginia +1 Play on: michigan ST +6 Play on: oKlahoma -3 Play on: ohio ST -1 Play on: STanforD -10

COLLEGE FOOTBALL STAFF PICKS STANDINGS *

All Games W L T Pct Last Week Best Bets W L T Pct Last Week

StatFox Brian 19 11 2 63.3% 9-5-2 StatFox Scott 8 1 1 88.9% 4-0-1

StatFox Scott 18 12 2 60.0% 10-4-2 StatFox Brian 7 3 0 70.0% 4-1-0

StatFox Consensus 18 12 2 60.0% 10-4-2 StatFox Gary 6 3 1 66.7% 3-1-1

StatFox Gary 17 13 2 56.7% 9-5-2 StatFox Dave 6 4 0 60.0% 3-2-0

StatFox Dave 16 14 2 53.3% 7-7-2 TOTAL 27 11 2 71.1% 14-4-2

StatFox Forecaster 15 15 2 50.0% 8-6-2 * [Standings refl ect games played through Saturday, September 10.]

www.StatFox.com 13 The Platinum Sheet

College Football Outplay Factor Ratings

StatFox’s renowned Outplay Factor Ratings are an excellent indicator of Key: OL Opening Line team strength: They provide a quantitative measure of how teams are OF StatFox Outplay Factor Rating (adjusted for home field advantage) outplaying—or being outplayed by—their opponents. They are determined OFL Calculated Outplay Factor Line Edge The difference between the Outplay Factor Rating Line by a sophisticated formula that takes into account a team’s points for and and the actual opening line points against as compared to how their previous opponents have fared. W/L Keep track of the winners and losers

1. TEMPLE (+11) over Penn State 23.9 4. Nevada (-6) over SAN JOSE STATE 16.4 TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR 2. NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+17) over Wisconsin 18.0 5. Syracuse (+14.5) over USC 16.3 RATING EDGES: 3. Auburn (+4) over CLEMSON 17.4 6. Miami Ohio (+3) over MINNESOTA 16.1

Thurs - 9/15, 8:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 3:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 7:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 101 LSU -4.5 48 -10 5.8 131 WISCONSIN -17 45 157 LOUISVILLE 33 -2 9.8 102 MISSISSIPPI STATE 38 132 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 46 -1 18.0 158 KENTUCKY -8 31

Fri - 9/16, 8:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 3:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 7:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 103 BOISE STATE -19.5 51 -11 133 MIAMI OHIO 31 -13 16.1 159 HOUSTON -7.5 31 -3 104 TOLEDO 40 8.3 134 MINNESOTA -3 18 160 LOUISIANA TECH 29 4.9

Fri - 9/16, 8:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 3:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 7:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 105 IOWA STATE 22 135 TENNESSEE 35 161 MARSHALL 17 106 CONNECTICUT -5 37 -16 10.6 136 FLORIDA -8.5 44 -9 0.3 162 OHIO -2 34 -17 15.2

Sat - 9/17, 12:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 3:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 7:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 107 WEST VIRGINIA 39 137 MICHIGAN STATE 27 163 IDAHO 12 3.2 108 MARYLAND -1 41 -2 1.0 138 NOTRE DAME -5 33 -6 1.1 164 TEXAS A&M -36 45 -33

Sat - 9/17, 12:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 3:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 7:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 109 AUBURN 46 -13 17.4 139 VIRGINIA 26 1.3 167 ARIZONA STATE -2.5 35 110 CLEMSON -4 33 140 NORTH CAROLINA -8.5 33 -7 168 ILLINOIS 40 -4 6.9

Sat - 9/17, 12:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 3:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 7:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 111 PITTSBURGH 34 141 TEXAS -3.5 21 -4 0.1 169 KENT STATE 21 6.8 112 IOWA -2 39 -5 3.0 142 UCLA 17 170 KANSAS STATE -14 29 -7

Sat - 9/17, 12:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 3:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 8:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 113 AKRON 12 13.9 143 WASHINGTON 26 5.0 171 SYRACUSE 28 -2 16.3 114 CINCINNATI -31 29 -17 144 NEBRASKA -18.5 39 -14 172 USC -14.5 26

Sat - 9/17, 12:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 3:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 8:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 117 EASTERN MICHIGAN 16 13.0 145 TEXAS TECH -18 34 -24 5.8 173 OKLAHOMA -3.5 47 -1 118 MICHIGAN -28.5 31 -16 146 NEW MEXICO 10 174 FLORIDA STATE 46 2.8

Sat - 9/17, 12:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 3:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 8:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 119 PENN STATE -11 31 147 NORTHWESTERN 24 177 OHIO STATE 47 -11 12.1 120 TEMPLE 44 -13 23.9 148 ARMY 27 -3 178 MIAMI FLORIDA -1 36

Sat - 9/17, 12:20 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 4:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 9:15 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 123 MISSISSIPPI 27 -11 10.5 149 NEVADA -6 33 -22 16.4 179 UTAH 33 124 VANDERBILT Pk 17 150 SAN JOSE STATE 11 180 BYU -6.5 40 -7 0.8

Sat - 9/17, 12:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 4:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 10:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 125 DUKE 23 0.8 151 TULANE 13 8.1 181 OKLAHOMA STATE -11.5 39 126 BOSTON COLLEGE -7.5 30 -7 152 UAB -11.5 16 -3 182 TULSA 42 -3 14.8

Sat - 9/17, 12:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 6:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 10:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 127 KANSAS 20 0.6 153 NAVY 36 12.5 183 HAWAII -19.5 30 -18 128 GEORGIA TECH -14 34 -13 154 SOUTH CAROLINA -17.5 41 -5 184 UNLV 11 1.1

Sat - 9/17, 1:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 6:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/17, 10:45 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 129 COLORADO STATE 7.1 155 WASHINGTON STATE 29 1.1 185 STANFORD -10 51 -17 7.4 130 COLORADO -7.5 17 -10 2.5 156 SAN DIEGO STATE -8 36 -7 186 ARIZONA 34

14 www.StatFox.com See page 23 for the remainder of the College Football Outplay Factor Ratings The Platinum Sheet

TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATISTICAL EDGES

Below is a listing of the top team statistical edges when compared head-to-head with their upcoming opponents. Keep track of the ATS wins and losses of the top teams in each of the various statistics to determine which particular categories prove most successful from week to week.

offensive statistics defensive statistics off / def Differential

Points Scored (PPG) W/L Points Allowed (PPG) W/L Scoring Differential (PPG) W/L 1. CINCINNATI (vs AKR): +46.0 1. ARKANSAS (vs TRO): +38.0 1. ARKANSAS (vs TRO): +70.5 2. TEXAS TECH (vs NM): +43.5 2. ALABAMA (vs NTX): +35.5 2. TEXAS TECH (vs NM): +66.5 3. ARKANSAS (vs TRO): +32.5 3. KANSAS ST (vs KS): +27.0 3. CINCINNATI (vs AKR): +60.0 4. OKLAHOMA ST (vs TLS): +26.5 4. WISCONSIN (vs NIL): +27.0 4. ALABAMA (vs NTX): +53.5 5. WASHINGTON ST (vs SDS): +25.5 5. SAN JOSE ST (vs NEV): +27.0 5. HAWAII (vs NLV): +47.5 6. TULANE (vs UAB): +25.0 6. HAWAII (vs NLV): +26.5 6. STANFORD (vs ARI): +38.0 7. TCU (vs LAM): +24.0 7. MICHIGAN ST (vs ND): +26.0 7. MICHIGAN ST (vs ND): +36.5

Rushing Yards Gained (RYPG) W/L Rushing Yards Allowed (RYPG) W/L Rushing Yds Differential (RYPG) W/L 1. CINCINNATI (vs AKR): +238.0 1. WASHINGTON ST (vs SDS): +209.5 1. CINCINNATI (vs AKR): +376.0 2. E MICHIGAN (vs MIC): +179.0 2. WISCONSIN (vs NIL): +193.5 2. E MICHIGAN (vs MIC): +284.5 3. NEVADA (vs SJS): +168.5 3. TULANE (vs UAB): +155.0 3. KANSAS ST (vs KS): +281.5 4. NAVY (vs SC): +164.0 4. LSU (vs MSS): +154.0 4. STANFORD (vs ARI): +225.0 5. OHIO U (vs MAR): +149.5 5. LA MONROE (vs TCU): +140.5 5. ILLINOIS (vs AZS): +215.0 6. UCF (vs FIU): +149.0 6. CINCINNATI (vs AKR): +138.0 6. FLORIDA (vs TEN): +209.5 7. MISSISSIPPI ST (vs LSU): +146.0 7. KANSAS ST (vs KS): +138.0 7. WASHINGTON ST (vs SDS): +206.0

Yards Per Rush Gained (YPR) W/L Yards Per Rush Allowed (YPR) W/L Yards Per Rush Differential (YPR) W/L 1. CINCINNATI (vs AKR): +6.0 1. E MICHIGAN (vs MIC): +3.7 1. CINCINNATI (vs AKR): +7.6 2. COLORADO ST (vs COL): +2.8 2. STANFORD (vs ARI): +3.5 2. STANFORD (vs ARI): +5.6 3. MISSISSIPPI ST (vs LSU): +2.6 3. LSU (vs MSS): +3.2 3. FLORIDA (vs TEN): +5.6 4. TEXAS A&M (vs IDA): +2.6 4. KANSAS ST (vs KS): +3.1 4. E MICHIGAN (vs MIC): +5.2 5. FLORIDA (vs TEN): +2.5 5. FLORIDA (vs TEN): +3.0 5. KANSAS ST (vs KS): +5.1 6. OHIO U (vs MAR): +2.4 6. OHIO ST (vs MIA): +3.0 6. ALABAMA (vs NTX): +4.9 7. W MICHIGAN (vs CM): +2.2 7. LA MONROE (vs TCU): +3.0 7. ILLINOIS (vs AZS): +3.9

Passing Yards Gained (PYPG) W/L Passing Yards Allowed (PYPG) W/L Passing Yds Differential (PYPG) W/L 1. WASHINGTON ST (vs SDS): +211.5 1. ALABAMA (vs NTX): +256.5 1. TEXAS TECH (vs NM): +358.0 2. LOUISVILLE (vs KEN): +189.0 2. UCF (vs FIU): +206.5 2. ALABAMA (vs NTX): +299.5 3. HOUSTON (vs LAT): +188.0 3. TEXAS TECH (vs NM): +200.5 3. HAWAII (vs NLV): +248.0 4. OKLAHOMA ST (vs TLS): +169.0 4. FLORIDA ST (vs OKL): +193.5 4. BUFFALO (vs BLS): +241.5 5. TEXAS TECH (vs NM): +157.5 5. NEBRASKA (vs WAS): +191.0 5. ARKANSAS (vs TRO): +241.0 6. ARKANSAS ST (vs VAT): +156.0 6. BUFFALO (vs BLS): +175.5 6. HOUSTON (vs LAT): +240.0 7. HAWAII (vs NLV): +152.5 7. OHIO ST (vs MIA): +174.5 7. OHIO ST (vs MIA): +220.5

Yards Per Pass Attempted (PYA) W/L Yards Per Pass Allowed (PYA) W/L Yards Per Pass Differential (PYA) W/L 1. GEORGIA TECH (vs KAN): +11.6 1. ALABAMA (vs NTX): +6.4 1. GEORGIA TECH (vs KAN): +14.8 2. MICHIGAN (vs EMU): +7.4 2. SAN JOSE ST (vs NEV): +5.7 2. TEXAS TECH (vs NM): +8.8 3. NAVY (vs SC): +5.1 3. MICHIGAN ST (vs ND): +5.5 3. ALABAMA (vs NTX): +7.7 4. TEMPLE (vs PSU): +4.5 4. TEXAS TECH (vs NM): +4.9 4. BOWLING GREEN (vs WYO): +7.7 5. N CAROLINA (vs VIR): +4.3 5. BOWLING GREEN (vs WYO): +4.7 5. ARKANSAS (vs TRO): +7.5 6. TEXAS TECH (vs NM): +3.9 6. LA MONROE (vs TCU): +4.5 6. FLORIDA ST (vs OKL): +6.3 7. ARKANSAS (vs TRO): +3.8 7. FLORIDA ST (vs OKL): +4.2 7. HAWAII (vs NLV): +6.3

Total Yards Gained (TYPG) W/L Total Yards Allowed (TYPG) W/L Total Yds Differential (TYPG) W/L 1. CINCINNATI (vs AKR): +299.0 1. ALABAMA (vs NTX): +375.0 1. ALABAMA (vs NTX): +500.0 2. MISSISSIPPI ST (vs LSU): +251.5 2. OHIO ST (vs MIA): +285.0 2. UCF (vs FIU): +387.5 3. NEVADA (vs SJS): +239.0 3. FLORIDA ST (vs OKL): +262.5 3. ARKANSAS (vs TRO): +364.0 4. OKLAHOMA ST (vs TLS): +224.0 4. UCF (vs FIU): +243.5 4. CINCINNATI (vs AKR): +361.5 5. WASHINGTON ST (vs SDS): +208.0 5. ARKANSAS (vs TRO): +238.0 5. KANSAS ST (vs KS): +356.5 6. TEXAS TECH (vs NM): +192.0 6. LA MONROE (vs TCU): +232.0 6. HAWAII (vs NLV): +342.0 7. HOUSTON (vs LAT): +186.5 7. SAN JOSE ST (vs NEV): +208.0 7. OHIO ST (vs MIA): +327.0

Yards Per Play Attempted (YPP) W/L Yards Per Play Allowed (YPP) W/L Yards Per Play Differential (YPP) W/L 1. CINCINNATI (vs AKR): +4.0 1. E MICHIGAN (vs MIC): +5.6 1. ALABAMA (vs NTX): +7.0 2. TEXAS TECH (vs NM): +2.9 2. ALABAMA (vs NTX): +5.4 2. CINCINNATI (vs AKR): +6.5 3. GEORGIA TECH (vs KAN): +2.7 3. UCF (vs FIU): +4.9 3. HAWAII (vs NLV): +5.7 4. TEMPLE (vs PSU): +2.2 4. OHIO ST (vs MIA): +4.3 4. UCF (vs FIU): +5.7 5. MISSISSIPPI ST (vs LSU): +2.1 5. HAWAII (vs NLV): +4.0 5. KANSAS ST (vs KS): +4.9 6. TEXAS A&M (vs IDA): +2.1 6. TULANE (vs UAB): +3.9 6. ARKANSAS (vs TRO): +4.9 7. N CAROLINA (vs VIR): +2.1 7. LA MONROE (vs TCU): +3.1 7. OHIO ST (vs MIA): +4.7

Turnovers Committed Per Game (TOPG) W/L Turnovers Forced Per Game (TOPG) W/L Turnover Differential (TODiff) W/L 1. MICHIGAN ST (vs ND): +4.5 1. MARYLAND (vs WV): +4.0 1. KENT ST (vs KSU): +4.5 2. OHIO ST (vs MIA): +3.0 2. GEORGIA TECH (vs KAN): +3.0 2. CINCINNATI (vs AKR): +4.0 3. NORTHWESTERN (vs ARM): +2.5 3. CINCINNATI (vs AKR): +2.5 3. MICHIGAN ST (vs ND): +4.0 4. KENT ST (vs KSU): +2.5 4. OKLAHOMA (vs FSU): +2.5 4. VIRGINIA (vs UNC): +3.5 5. ARKANSAS (vs TRO): +1.5 5. MICHIGAN (vs EMU): +2.5 5. WASHINGTON (vs NEB): +3.5 6. CINCINNATI (vs AKR): +1.5 6. VIRGINIA (vs UNC): +2.5 6. NORTHWESTERN (vs ARM): +3.0 7. COLORADO (vs CSU): +1.5 7. TEXAS TECH (vs NM): +2.5 7. ILLINOIS (vs AZS): +3.0

www.StatFox.com 15 The Platinum Sheet

College Football Week 3: SEPTEMBER 15-17

lsu (-3) vs mississippi state

• (101) LSU (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) at (102) MISSISSIPPI ST (SU: 1-1, ATS: 1-1) - Thursday, 9/15/2011 8:00 PM

Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD LSU +29.5 30.0 44 20 46-175 (3.8) 22-14-162 (7.5) 68-337 (5.0) 1-0 15 12 28-46 (1.7) 42-24-170 (4.1) 70-216 (3.1) 2-1 +3 MISSISSIPPI ST +19.0 31.5 46 28 50-321 (6.4) 32-20-267 (8.2) 82-588 (7.2) 0-0 28 20 42-200 (4.8) 32-21-160 (5.1) 74-360 (4.9) 1-1 +2

Game Breakdown: LSU is 18-1 SU and 15-4 ATS versus Mississippi State since 1992. Last year in Baton Rouge, MSU had more yards than the Tigers, but threw 5 INT in a 29-7 loss. The Bulldogs lost by the nose of the football in Auburn last week, as Chris Relf was tackled at the 1-yard line on the final play. MSU is fifth in the nation in offense (588 YPG) thanks to Vick Ballard’s 301 rushing yards (9.7 YPC) and 4 TD. The Tigers destroyed Northwestern State 49-3 Saturday and have allowed just 91 yards on 55 carries this year (1.7 YPC).

• Les Miles is 15-30 ATS against conference opponents as coach of LSU. Stat F ox LSU 29 • Les Miles is 12-1 OVER away off 1 or more consecutive unders as coach of LSU. F o r e c a st e r : MISSISSIPPI STATE 28 • Les Miles is 2-10 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games as coach of LSU.

BOISE STATE (-17) vs TOLEDO

• (103) BOISE ST (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (104) TOLEDO (SU: 1-1, ATS: 2-0) - Friday, 9/16/2011 8:00 PM

Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD BOISE ST +14.0 49.0 35 24 37-129 (3.5) 34-28-261 (7.7) 71-390 (5.5) 0-1 21 13 31-137 (4.4) 29-16-236 (8.1) 60-373 (6.2) 0-1 0 TOLEDO +15.5 26.0 40 22 38-166 (4.3) 39-24-298 (7.6) 77-464 (6.0) 0-0 24 18 34-132 (3.9) 32-20-184 (5.9) 66-316 (4.8) 2-1 +5

Game Breakdown: Well-rested Boise State looks to show off its high-flying offense Friday night against a Toledo squad that nearly beat Ohio State in Columbus. The Rockets outgained OSU, but committed 14 penalties and were 3-of-16 on third downs in the 27-22 loss. WR Eric Page caught 12 passes for 145 yards and 2 TD. Kellen Moore lit up Georgia for 261 yards and 3 TD in BSU’s opening win on Sept. 3. Moore was 16-of-22 for 267 yards and 3 TD in last year’s 57-14 rout of Toledo, which committed five turnovers on the blue turf.

• Chris Petersen is 37-18 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins as coach of BOISE ST. Stat F ox BOISE STATE 38 • BOISE ST is 18-3 ATS in in non-home games since 2008. F o r e c a st e r : TOLEDO 21 • Chris Petersen is 23-11 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers as coach of BOISE ST.

IOWA STATE vs CONNECTICUT (-4½)

• (105) IOWA ST (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) at (106) CONNECTICUT (SU: 1-1, ATS: 0-2) - Friday, 9/16/2011 8:00 PM

Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD IOWA ST +2.0 20.5 32 23 46-168 (3.7) 39-22-233 (6.0) 85-401 (4.7) 2-2 30 20 42-181 (4.3) 30-16-194 (6.4) 72-375 (5.2) 1-0 -5 CONNECTICUT +14.5 12.5 28 18 39-148 (3.8) 25-12-166 (6.6) 64-314 (4.9) 0-2 14 9 31-69 (2.2) 26-12-145 (5.5) 57-214 (3.8) 0-2 -1

Game Breakdown: Iowa State tries to continue momentum from its 3-OT win over Iowa when it travels to East Hartford, CT to face the Huskies on Friday night. Steele Jantz threw for 279 yards and 4 TD in the 44-41 victory as six different Cyclones caught at least three passes. UConn’s QB situation is dire, as Johnny McEntee turned the ball over four times in a 24-21 loss at Vanderbilt. McEntee led his offense to zero touchdowns and finished 10-of-27 for 99 yards and 3 TD. The Huskies are 10-4 ATS in their past 14 non-conference games.

• Paul Pasqualoni is 13-4 ATS at home after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. Stat F ox IOWA STATE 19 • IOWA ST is 17-7 UNDER in all lined games over the L3 seasons. F o r e c a st e r : CONNECTICUT 23 • CONNECTICUT is 9-1 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders over the L3 seasons.

WEST VIRGINIA vs MARYLAND (-1)

• (107) W VIRGINIA (SU: 2-0, ATS: 0-2) at (108) MARYLAND (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 12:00 PM

Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD W VIRGINIA +32.0 12.5 44 22 30-72 (2.4) 38-26-340 (9.1) 68-412 (6.1) 0-0 12 11 28-80 (2.9) 26-16-156 (6.0) 54-236 (4.4) 0-0 0 MARYLAND +8.0 45.0 32 28 34-151 (4.4) 44-31-348 (7.9) 78-499 (6.4) 0-1 24 18 40-172 (4.3) 28-19-195 (7.0) 68-367 (5.4) 2-2 +3

Game Breakdown: The Mountaineers know they’ll need a huge improvement over last week when they travel to Maryland. WVU trailed 12-10 to Norfolk State at halftime before a 45-0 snowballing in the second half behind Geno Smith’s 371 passing yards and 4 TD. Smith also threw 4 TD in last year’s 31-17 win over Maryland. The Terrapins rushed for minus-10 yards in Morgantown, as WVU tallied eight sacks. Maryland hasn’t played since winning 32-24 over Miami on Labor Day. Danny O’Brien threw for 348 yards against the ‘Canes.

• Randy Edsall is 14-3 ATS at home after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. Stat F ox WEST VIRGINIA 23 • WEST VIRGINIA is 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) vs. Maryland in past five seasons. F o r e c a st e r : MARYLAND 24 • Randy Edsall is 35-19 ATS in home games.

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auBurn vs Clemson (-3½)

• (109) AUBURN (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) at (110) CLEMSON (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 12:00 PM

Team offense Team defense Pdif ss PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i Tod AUBURN +5.5 38.5 42 19 33-156 (4.7) 24-17-216 (9.2) 57-372 (6.5) 0-0 36 29 58-280 (4.8) 32-22-210 (6.4) 90-490 (5.4) 0-0 0 CLEMSON +16.0 14.0 39 18 40-206 (5.2) 30-20-266 (8.9) 70-472 (6.7) 0-0 23 18 46-218 (4.7) 25-13-192 (7.7) 71-410 (5.8) 1-1 +2

Game Breakdown: It’s the battle of the orange Tigers with Auburn looking for its 17th straight win spanning three seasons. Clemson knows it needs a much better eff ort after barely beating 26.5-point underdog Woff ord at home last week, 35-27. Auburn also knows close losses, having now won 10 straight games decided by eight points or less with Saturday’s goal-line stop to beat Mississippi State. Another narrow win was an OT victory over Clemson last year when Chandler Catanzaro missed a do-over kick.

• Gene Chizik is 13-3 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game as coach of AUBURN. Stat F ox AUBURN 32 • CLEMSON is 9-1 UNDER when playing with 6 or less days rest over the L2 seasons. F o R e C a St e R : CLEMSON 24 • AUBURN is 8-1 ATS off a home win over the L2 seasons.

PiTTsBurGh vs iowa (-3½)

• (111) PITTSBURGH (SU: 2-0, ATS: 0-2) at (112) IOWA (SU: 1-1, ATS: 0-2) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 12:00 PM

Team offense Team defense Pdif ss PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i Tod PITTSBURGH +12.5 7.5 35 24 43-178 (4.1) 35-21-218 (6.2) 78-396 (5.1) 0-1 22 24 34-82 (2.4) 48-30-305 (6.4) 82-387 (4.7) 0-0 -2 IOWA +12.0 15.0 38 20 38-153 (4.0) 28-16-226 (8.2) 66-379 (5.7) 1-0 26 22 48-167 (3.4) 33-21-218 (6.6) 81-385 (4.8) 2-1 +3

Game Breakdown: After lackluster home wins over Buff alo and Maine, the competition gets much stiff er when Pittsburgh visits Iowa. The Panthers only outgained the Black Bears by 10 yards and held the ball for just 16 more seconds in their 35-29 win Saturday. RB Ray Graham had 121 rushing yards and 3 TD and leads the nation with 322 rushing yards and 6 TD. Iowa lost to ISU in 3 OT despite 140 rushing yards and 2 TD from Marcus Coker. Pittsburgh has been a great road play, going 16-7 ATS (70%) in non-home games since 2007.

• Kirk Ferentz is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points as coach of IOWA. Stat F ox PITTSBURGH 23 • Kirk Ferentz is 11-1 UNDER at home after 2 straight games with turnover margin of +1 or better as IOWA coach. F o R e C a St e R : IOWA 23 • Kirk Ferentz is 26-12 UNDER after playing a non-conference game as coach of IOWA.

Tennessee vs florida (-9)

• (135) TENNESSEE (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-0) at (136) FLORIDA (SU: 2-0, ATS: 2-0) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 3:30 PM

Team offense Team defense Pdif ss PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i Tod TENNESSEE +24.0 17.5 44 26 40-127 (3.1) 33-26-358 (10.8) 73-485 (6.6) 1-0 20 18 28-138 (4.9) 36-20-232 (6.5) 64-370 (5.8) 1-0 +1 FLORIDA +38.5 19.0 40 29 44-248 (5.6) 28-19-242 (8.6) 72-490 (6.8) 0-2 2 11 26-50 (1.9) 28-14-124 (4.4) 54-174 (3.2) 0-0 -2

Game Breakdown: Florida tries to beat rival Tennessee for the seventh straight time Saturday. The Gators have dominated the past four meetings, winning by an average score of 36 to 14. Vols QB Tyler Bray has been nearly perfect this season (51-of-65, 698 yds, 7 TD, 0 INT). Florida has also been fl awless, outscoring FAU and UAB by a combined 80-3 score and outgaining them 980 to 349. The Gators could be missing two key off ensive players who were hurt last game -- RB Jeff Demps (shoulder) and TE Jordan Reed (hamstring).

• FLORIDA is 8-1 UNDER after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game over the L3 seasons. Stat F ox TENNESSEE 23 • Derek Dooley is 7-0 OVER after a game where they forced no turnovers. F o R e C a St e R : FLORIDA 27 • Derek Dooley is 13-3 ATS after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers.

SuPeR SituationS

Situational analysis uncovers • Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to • Play Against - Road underdogs • Play On - Home underdogs conditions and patterns where 10 points (TENNESSEE) - poor (WVU, UTAH) - good rushing de- (ILLINOIS, FSU) - after 2 straight teams have consistently outper- rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR) fense from last season - allowed wins by 17 or more points against formed or underperformed their against a team with an excellent 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, opponent after scoring 37 points normal levels. These systems are rushing defense (<=3 YPR). in non-conference games. or more last game. not team specifi c—the principle is that teams fall into patterns re- • The situation’s record is 42-12 • The situation’s record is 28-5 • The situation’s record is 30-8 gardless of personnel (i.e. good over the last 10 seasons (77.8%, over the last 5 seasons (84.8%, since 1992 (78.9%, +21.2 units). passing teams, teams seeking +28.8 units). +22.5 units). revenge, cold teams on a losing raTinG = *** streak, etc.). raTinG = **** raTinG = **** www.StatFox.com 17 The Platinum Sheet

College Football Week 3: SEPTEMBER 17

MICHIGAN STATE vs NOTRE DAME (-6)

• (137) MICHIGAN ST (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) at (138) NOTRE DAME (SU: 0-2, ATS: 0-2) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 3:30 PM

Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD MICHIGAN ST +33.0 4.5 36 24 43-174 (4.0) 28-20-242 (8.8) 71-416 (5.9) 0-0 3 10 27-75 (2.8) 24-12-76 (3.2) 51-151 (3.0) 0-0 +1 NOTRE DAME -3.5 40.0 26 28 31-158 (5.1) 44-29-353 (8.0) 75-511 (6.8) 2-2 29 18 34-120 (3.5) 27-14-233 (8.6) 61-353 (5.8) 0-2 -7

Game Breakdown: Michigan State tries to beat an Irish squad that has turned the ball over 10 times in two games and are 0-2 despite outgaining their two opponents 1,021 to 706. Notre Dame led Michigan 24-7 after three quarters before allowing 28 points in the fourth. The Spartans have only allowed 302 total yards (152 passing) and six points in wins over Youngstown State and Florida Atlantic. MSU is 11-3-1 ATS (10-5 SU) versus Notre Dame since 1995, including last year’s amazing 34-31 win on a fake TD pass.

• NOTRE DAME is 3-13 ATS as a favorite over the L3 seasons. Stat F ox MICHIGAN STATE 20 • Mark Dantonio is 9-0 OVER away after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. F o r e c a st e r : NOTRE DAME 28 • Brian Kelly is 23-9 UNDER in home games.

TEXAS (-3) vs UCLA

• (141) TEXAS (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) at (142) UCLA (SU: 1-1, ATS: 0-2) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 3:30 PM

Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD TEXAS +13.0 34.0 26 18 46-198 (4.3) 24-14-200 (8.5) 70-398 (5.7) 0-1 12 15 26-86 (3.3) 34-18-143 (4.2) 60-229 (3.8) 1-1 +1 UCLA +3.0 27.5 30 24 42-252 (6.0) 26-16-234 (9.0) 68-486 (7.1) 2-0 28 22 30-180 (6.0) 37-23-212 (5.7) 67-392 (5.9) 0-1 0

Game Breakdown: The Longhorns look for payback when they face a UCLA team that won big in Austin last season, 34-12. Texas had five turnovers and the Bruins capitalized with a ground game that rumbled for 264 yards on 56 carries. The ‘Horns erased a 13-0 deficit to BYU at home on Saturday night, aided by a QB rotation of Case McCoy and David Ash after (2-of-8, 8 yds, 2 INT) was benched. UCLA struggled with San Jose St., but Derrick Coleman’s 135 second-half rushing yards propelled the Bruins to a 27-17 win.

• is 22-10 UNDER when playing on a Saturday as coach of UCLA. Stat F ox TEXAS 23 • Rick Neuheisel is 15-5 UNDER in home games as coach of UCLA. F o r e c a st e r : UCLA 24 • Rick Neuheisel is 17-6 UNDER when playing with 6 or less days rest as coach of UCLA.

WASHINGTON vs NEBRASKA (-17½)

• (143) WASHINGTON (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) at (144) NEBRASKA (SU: 2-0, ATS: 0-2) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 3:30 PM

Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD WASHINGTON +5.5 18.0 35 18 36-150 (4.2) 26-18-208 (8.2) 62-358 (5.8) 0-0 30 25 20-43 (2.2) 57-35-403 (7.1) 77-446 (5.8) 2-2 +5 NEBRASKA +23.0 14.5 41 17 39-224 (5.7) 23-11-177 (7.7) 62-401 (6.5) 1-1 18 18 36-125 (3.5) 38-21-212 (5.5) 74-337 (4.6) 0-0 -2

Game Breakdown: Washington and Nebraska play for the third time in less than 12 months. The Cornhuskers rushed for 383 yards and 6 TD in a 56-21 win in Seattle. But the Hus- kies got even in the Holiday Bowl, limiting Nebraska to 91 yards on 41 carries and winning 19-7. UW sophomore QB Keith Price has been money this season, going 35-for-50 for 417 yards, 7 TD and 1 INT. Huskers QB Taylor Martinez, who had 287 total yards and 4 TD in Seattle last year, torched Fresno State for 385 total yards and 3 TD in Saturday’s 42-29 win.

• NEBRASKA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Stat F ox WASHINGTON 17 • WASHINGTON is 13-30 ATS (-20.0 Units) after allowing 125 or less rush yds in 2 straight games since 1992. F o r e c a st e r : NEBRASKA 32 • NEBRASKA is 13-4 ATS in home games after 2 straight games where they forced 1 or less turnovers since 1992.

LOUISVILLE vs KENTUCKY (-7)

• (157) LOUISVILLE (SU: 1-1, ATS: 0-2) at (158) KENTUCKY (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 7:00 PM

Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD LOUISVILLE +2.5 15.0 19 20 39-121 (3.1) 39-24-294 (7.6) 78-415 (5.3) 2-1 16 14 38-94 (2.5) 28-16-198 (7.2) 66-292 (4.4) 0-2 -3 KENTUCKY +12.5 22.5 20 12 35-162 (4.6) 18-8-106 (5.9) 53-268 (5.1) 0-2 8 17 37-114 (3.1) 36-16-194 (5.4) 73-308 (4.2) 0-3 +1

Game Breakdown: In-state rivals look to gets sputtering offenses on track when Kentucky hosts Louisville. The Cardinals have only scored 38 points, losing 24-17 at home to Florida International last week. They allowed FIU’s T.Y. Hilton to gain 201 receiving yards. The Wildcats are ranked 110th in offense (267 YPG) and 115th in passing (105.5 YPG) among the 120 FBS schools, but they have only allowed 16 points in wins over Western Kentucky and Central Michigan. Kentucky has won four straight meetings in this series.

• KENTUCKY is 10-1 OVER at home when playing with 6 or less days rest over the L3 seasons. Stat F ox LOUISVILLE 20 • KENTUCKY is 8-0 OVER at home after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the L3 seasons. F o r e c a st e r : KENTUCKY 21 • KENTUCKY is 11-2 OVER in home games over the L3 seasons.

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ariZona sTaTe (-2) vs illinois

• (167) ARIZONA ST (SU: 2-0, ATS: 0-2) at (168) ILLINOIS (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 7:00 PM

Team offense Team defense Pdif ss PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i Tod ARIZONA ST +20.5 22.5 42 24 36-160 (4.5) 32-24-344 (10.6) 68-504 (7.4) 1-0 22 18 32-135 (4.3) 36-22-237 (6.6) 68-372 (5.5) 0-0 -2 ILLINOIS +35.5 13.5 44 26 50-283 (5.7) 22-16-213 (9.9) 72-496 (6.9) 0-0 9 10 28-42 (1.5) 27-16-180 (6.7) 55-222 (4.0) 1-2 +4

Game Breakdown: The Illini will fi nally be tested when they host Arizona State on Saturday night. The Sun Devils are riding high after an overtime win over No. 21 Missouri on Friday, as QB threw for 353 yards and 3 TD and also rushed for a score. Illinois has beaten Arkansas State and South Dakota State by a combined 89 to 18, outrushing the two weak opponents 566 to 85. QB Nathan Scheelhaase is 22-of-31 passing for 369 yards and 2 TD, and is one of four Illini players with 100 rushing yards already this season.

• Dennis Erickson is 12-1 UNDER after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. Stat F ox ARIZONA STATE 32 • Dennis Erickson is 9-1 UNDER after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games as coach of ARIZONA ST. F o R e C a St e R : ILLINOIS 34 • Dennis Erickson is 11-2 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins as coach of ARIZONA ST.

sYraCuse vs usC (-14½)

• (171) SYRACUSE (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) at (172) USC (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 8:00 PM

Team offense Team defense Pdif ss PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i Tod SYRACUSE +7.0 14.0 28 18 28-78 (2.9) 32-24-248 (7.6) 60-326 (5.4) 0-0 22 22 38-96 (2.5) 36-19-240 (6.8) 74-336 (4.5) 0-2 +1 USC +5.5 36.5 21 24 34-110 (3.3) 38-27-284 (7.4) 72-394 (5.5) 2-0 16 20 30-96 (3.2) 36-18-215 (6.0) 66-311 (4.7) 0-0 -2

Game Breakdown: Two 2-0 teams that haven’t won by much will hook up in Southern California. Syracuse needed OT to beat Wake Forest, and then outlasted FCS Rhode Island by seven with Ryan Nassib’s 3 TD. The Trojans barely beat 24-point dog Minnesota at home (19-17) and then needed a blocked fi eld goal on the game’s fi nal play to outlast Utah, covering the spread and improving to 3-11 ATS in their past 14 home games. USC RB Marc Tyler made a triumphant return from suspension with 113 rushing yards and a touchdown.

• Doug Marrone is 10-3 UNDER after playing a game at home as coach of SYRACUSE. Stat F ox SYRACUSE 21 • SYRACUSE is 6-17 ATS in road games after 2 straight games committing 1 or less turnovers since 1992. F o R e C a St e R : USC 21 • Doug Marrone is 16-6 UNDER when playing on a Saturday as coach of SYRACUSE.

oklahoma (-3) vs florida sTaTe

• (173) OKLAHOMA (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (174) FLORIDA ST (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 8:00 PM

Team offense Team defense Pdif ss PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i Tod OKLAHOMA +33.0 40.0 47 34 46-246 (5.3) 54-39-417 (7.7) 100-663 (6.6) 1-0 14 15 31-129 (4.2) 33-18-271 (8.2) 64-400 (6.2) 2-1 +2 FLORIDA ST +43.0 8.5 48 25 32-131 (4.0) 38-26-378 (9.8) 70-509 (7.3) 0-1 5 8 34-60 (1.8) 20-10-78 (4.0) 54-138 (2.6) 0-0 -1

Game Breakdown: The best game in college football this weekend is Oklahoma at FSU. The Sooners pummeled the ‘Noles last year 47-17 as Landry Jones threw for 380 yards and 4 TD. Oklahoma had a bye after crushing Tulsa 47-14 on Sept. 3 behind 375 passing yards from Jones and four rushing TD from Dominique Whaley. Seminoles QB E.J. Manuel has been tremendous as the replacement for the departed . Manuel is 46-of-69 for 581 yards, 6 TD and 2 INT as his team beat ULM 34-0 and Charleston Southern 62-10.

• Bob Stoops is 11-3 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as coach of OKLAHOMA. Stat F ox OKLAHOMA 30 • Bob Stoops is 10-3 UNDER as a road favorite of 7 points or less as coach of OKLAHOMA. F o R e C a St e R : FLORIDA STATE 29 • Bob Stoops is 80-61 ATS when playing on a Saturday as coach of OKLAHOMA.

Situational teaM PoWeR tRenDS

The StatFox Situational Team Power Trends uncover situations where a team outperforms or underperforms their normal level of play. These trends are great indicators of how teams react to situations (i.e. coming o a close win, against division opponents, etc.)

• OKLAHOMA ST is 16-3 ATS (84.2%, +12.7 • NOTRE DAME is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in • STANFORD is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after Units) after scoring 37 points or more in 2 home games when playing with 6 or less days outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in straight games since 1992. rest over the last 3 seasons. their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 40.4, The average score was NOTRE DAME 27.3, The average score was STANFORD 44.0, OPPONENT 24.8. OPPONENT 26.2 OPPONENT 11.9.

PLAY ON OKLAHOMA ST PLAY ON MICHIGAN ST PLAY ON STANFORD raTinG = *** raTinG = *** raTinG = **** www.StatFox.com 19 The Platinum Sheet

College Football Week 3: SEPTEMBER 17

OHIO STATE (-1) vs MIAMI FLORIDA

• (177) OHIO ST (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) at (178) MIAMI (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 7:30 PM

Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD OHIO ST +23.5 21.0 34 22 42-168 (4.0) 29-18-241 (8.3) 71-409 (5.8) 1-0 11 10 28-40 (1.4) 30-14-174 (5.7) 58-214 (3.7) 0-1 0 MIAMI -8.0 44.0 24 18 40-172 (4.3) 28-19-195 (7.0) 68-367 (5.4) 2-2 32 28 34-151 (4.4) 44-31-348 (7.9) 78-499 (6.4) 0-1 -3

Game Breakdown: This is a matchup of two schools who have made headlines for all the wrong reasons in the past few months. OSU escaped The Horseshoe with an unimpres- sive 27-22 win over Toledo Saturday. The Buckeyes only gained 301 total yards on offense. However, OSU’s run defense has allowed 81 yards on 57 carries this year (1.4 YPC). The Hurricanes haven’t played since their Labor Day loss to Maryland, but QB Jacory Harris is expected back for this contest. Harris threw 4 INT in last year’s 36-24 loss at Ohio State.

• OHIO ST is 18-6 ATS as a favorite over the L3 seasons. Stat F ox OHIO STATE 27 • Al Golden is 10-2 ATS as a home underdog. F o r e c a st e r : MIAMI 20 • OHIO ST is 16-5 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the L3 seasons.

UTAH vs BYU (-6)

• (179) UTAH (SU: 1-1, ATS: 0-2) at (180) BYU (SU: 1-1, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 9:15 PM

Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD UTAH +4.0 20.0 20 18 32-136 (4.3) 34-19-170 (4.9) 66-306 (4.6) 0-0 16 18 34-114 (3.3) 30-18-224 (7.3) 64-338 (5.3) 1-2 +4 BYU 0.0 40.0 15 17 27-67 (2.5) 38-23-208 (5.5) 65-276 (4.2) 0-2 15 14 36-115 (3.2) 24-14-134 (5.6) 60-249 (4.2) 1-1 +1

Game Breakdown: Utah lost Saturday at USC on a last-second blocked field goal, and now it faces a BYU team that the Utes beat 17-16 with a blocked field goal on the last play of their 2010 meeting. The Cougars also suffered a close loss Saturday night when they fell to Texas in Austin by one point. Utah ranks 97th in offense (305.5 YPG) while BYU is even worse than the Utes at 275.5 YPG (108th in FBS). Twelve of the past 14 meetings between these former Mountain West rivals have been decided by a touchdown or less.

• BYU is 9-0 UNDER in the first half of the season over the L2 seasons. Stat F ox UTAH 14 • BYU is 6-0 UNDER in September games over the L2 seasons. F o r e c a st e r : BYU 29 • BYU is 6-0 UNDER in the first month of the season over the L2 seasons.

OKLAHOMA STATE (-14) vs TULSA

• (181) OKLAHOMA ST (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) at (182) TULSA (SU: 1-1, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 10:00 PM

Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD OKLAHOMA ST +25.0 31.5 49 28 38-202 (5.4) 48-35-428 (8.9) 86-630 (7.3) 0-2 24 20 29-74 (2.6) 44-28-305 (6.9) 73-379 (5.2) 1-0 -1 TULSA -2.5 37.5 22 17 34-148 (4.3) 32-20-258 (8.0) 66-406 (6.2) 2-1 25 24 40-152 (3.8) 48-29-296 (6.2) 88-448 (5.1) 2-0 -1

Game Breakdown: Two high-octane passing offenses look to air it out in Tulsa. The Cowboys haven’t skipped a beat under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who replaced Dana Holgorsen. In two games, OSU’s has 785 passing yards, with 272 of those going to Justin Blackmon. Tulsa got rolled by the last Big 12 school it faced, Okla- homa, but also has a great QB in G.J. Kinne. However Kinne threw 3 INT in Tulsa’s 65-28 win in Stillwater last year, as OSU threw for 574 yards and 8 TD (three to Blackmon).

• Mike Gundy is 29-12 ATS as a favorite as coach of OKLAHOMA ST. Stat F ox OKLAHOMA STATE 41 • TULSA is 8-0 UNDER after a win by 17 or more points over the L3 seasons. F o r e c a st e r : TULSA 30 • Mike Gundy is 9-1 ATS after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games as coach of OKLAHOMA ST.

STANFORD (-10) vs ARIZONA

• (185) STANFORD (SU: 2-0, ATS: 2-0) at (186) ARIZONA (SU: 1-1, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 10:45 PM

Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD STANFORD 42.0 22.5 50 22 35-173 (4.9) 30-22-266 (8.7) 65-439 (6.8) 0-0 8 14 32-28 (0.9) 36-22-258 (7.2) 68-286 (4.2) 2-0 +3 ARIZONA +4.0 26.0 28 22 20-58 (2.8) 46-36-405 (8.7) 66-463 (7.0) 0-0 24 20 32-138 (4.3) 40-31-288 (7.3) 72-426 (5.9) 0-1 +1

Game Breakdown: Andrew Luck bring his explosive air attack into the desert to face an Arizona team eager to erase last Thursday’s 37-14 drubbing at Oklahoma State. Luck threw for 290 yards and 4 TD in Saturday’s 44-14 win at Duke and has 722 yards and 5 TD versus UA. Wildcats QB gained 398 yards through the air against OSU, but Arizona amassed just 41 yards on 21 carries. Stanford has won six of the past eight meetings (SU and ATS) against the Wildcats, and is 5-2 ATS in its past seven trips to the Tucson desert.

• STANFORD is 7-0 ATS after a win by 28 or more points over the L2 seasons. Stat F ox STANFORD 36 • Mike Stoops is 12-3 ATS after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game as coach of ARIZONA. F o r e c a st e r : ARIZONA 22 • STANFORD is 8-0 ATS after outgaining opp. by 125+ total yards in their previous game over the L2 seasons.

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(113) AKRON (SU: 0-2, ATS: 0-2) at (114) CINCINNATI (-30.5) (SU: 1-1, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 3:30 PM

KEY GAME TREND: Butch Jones is 8-0 ATS after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game. StatFox Forecaster: CINCINNATI 44, AKRON 14

(115) WYOMING (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) at (116) BOWLING GREEN (-8) (SU: 2-0, ATS: 2-0) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 12:00 PM

KEY GAME TREND: Dave Christensen is 10-2 ATS after playing a game at home as coach of WYOMING. StatFox Forecaster: WYOMING 28, BOWLING GREEN 24

(117) E MICHIGAN (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) at (118) MICHIGAN (-28.5) (SU: 2-0, ATS: 2-0) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 12:00 PM

KEY GAME TREND: MICHIGAN is 2-11 ATS after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over L3 seasons. StatFox Forecaster: MICHIGAN 43, E MICHIGAN 23

(119) PENN ST (-9.5) (SU: 1-1, ATS: 0-2) at (120) TEMPLE (SU: 2-0, ATS: 2-0) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 12:00 PM

KEY GAME TREND: PENN ST is 9-0 UNDER after playing a non-conference game over the L3 seasons. StatFox Forecaster: TEMPLE 28, PENN ST 17

(121) C MICHIGAN (SU: 1-1, ATS: 0-2) at (122) W MICHIGAN (-6.5) (SU: 1-1, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 12:00 PM

KEY GAME TREND: Bill Cubit is 23-34 ATS in all lined games as coach of W MICHIGAN. StatFox Forecaster: W MICHIGAN 33, C MICHIGAN 17

(123) OLE MISS (-1) (SU: 1-1, ATS: 1-1) at (124) VANDERBILT (SU: 2-0, ATS: 2-0) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 12:20 PM

KEY GAME TREND: VANDERBILT is 0-8 ATS at home against conference opponents over the L3 seasons. StatFox Forecaster: OLE MISS 31, VANDERBILT 22

(125) DUKE (SU: 0-2, ATS: 0-2) at (126) BOSTON COLLEGE (-7.5) (SU: 0-2, ATS: 0-2) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 12:30 PM

KEY GAME TREND: David Cutcliffe is 14-2 ATS after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or 0 turnovers. StatFox Forecaster: BOSTON COLLEGE 24, DUKE 17

(127) KANSAS (SU: 2-0, ATS: 2-0) at (128) GEORGIA TECH (-14.5) (SU: 2-0, ATS: 2-0) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 12:30 PM

KEY GAME TREND: Paul Johnson is 21-11 ATS in games played on a grass field as coach of GEORGIA TECH. StatFox Forecaster: GEORGIA TECH 37, KANSAS 20

(129) COLORADO ST (SU: 2-0, ATS: 0-2) vs. (130) COLORADO (-8.5) (SU: 0-2, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 1:30 PM

KEY GAME TREND: Steve Fairchild is 0-6 ATS away after 1 or more consecutive ATS losses as coach of COLORADO ST. StatFox Forecaster: COLORADO 34, COLORADO ST 20

(131) WISCONSIN (-16.5) (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) vs. (132) N ILLINOIS (SU: 1-1, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 3:30 PM

KEY GAME TREND: N ILLINOIS is 8-1 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the L2 seasons. StatFox Forecaster: WISCONSIN 39, N ILLINOIS 33

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College Football Week 3: SEPTember 17

(133) MIAMI OHIO (SU: 0-1, ATS: 1-0) at (134) MINNESOTA (-3) (SU: 0-2, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 3:30 PM

KEY GAME TREND: MIAMI OHIO is 9-2 UNDER off 1 or more consecutive unders over the L2 seasons. StatFox Forecaster: MIAMI OHIO 26, MINNESOTA 17

(139) VIRGINIA (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) at (140) N CAROLINA (-10.5) (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 3:30 PM

KEY GAME TREND: N CAROLINA is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games when playing VIRGINIA. StatFox Forecaster: N CAROLINA 32, VIRGINIA 23

(145) TEXAS TECH (-19) (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (146) NEW MEXICO (SU: 0-2, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 3:30 PM

KEY GAME TREND: Mike Locksley is 1-9 ATS in September games as coach of NEW MEXICO. StatFox Forecaster: TEXAS TECH 41, NEW MEXICO 18

(147) NORTHWESTERN (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) at (148) ARMY (nl) (SU: 0-2, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 3:30 PM

KEY GAME TREND: Pat Fitzgerald is 5-15 ATS after playing a non-conference game as coach of NORTHWESTERN. StatFox Forecaster: NORTHWESTERN 28, ARMY 28

(149) NEVADA (-6) (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) at (150) SAN JOSE ST (SU: 0-2, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 4:00 PM

KEY GAME TREND: SAN JOSE ST is 4-16 ATS in games played on a grass field over the L3 seasons. StatFox Forecaster: NEVADA 44, SAN JOSE ST 24

(151) TULANE (SU: 1-1, ATS: 0-2) at (152) UAB (-11.5) (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 4:00 PM

KEY GAME TREND: Bob Toledo is 9-24 ATS against conference opponents as coach of TULANE. StatFox Forecaster: UAB 32, TULANE 27

(153) NAVY (SU: 2-0, ATS: 2-0) at (154) S CAROLINA (-18.5) (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 6:00 PM

KEY GAME TREND: Steve Spurrier is 38-20 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games. StatFox Forecaster: S CAROLINA 34, NAVY 30

(155) WASHINGTON ST (SU: 2-0, ATS: 2-0) at (156) SAN DIEGO ST (-7) (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 6:30 PM

KEY GAME TREND: WASHINGTON ST is 6-0 ATS after playing a game at home over the L2 seasons. StatFox Forecaster: SAN DIEGO ST 35, WASHINGTON ST 27

(159) HOUSTON (-8) (SU: 2-0, ATS: 2-0) at (160) LOUISIANA TECH (SU: 1-1, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 7:00 PM

KEY GAME TREND: LOUISIANA TECH is 8-0 ATS after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the L3 seasons. StatFox Forecaster: HOUSTON 38, LOUISIANA TECH 31

(161) MARSHALL (SU: 1-1, ATS: 2-0) at (162) OHIO U (-3) (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 7:00 PM

KEY GAME TREND: Frank Solich is 10-2 ATS after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game as coach of OHIO U. StatFox Forecaster: OHIO U 28, MARSHALL 18

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(163) IDAHO (SU: 1-1, ATS: 0-1) at (164) TEXAS A&M (-36.5) (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 7:00 PM

KEY GAME TREND: IDAHO is 11-3 ATS in the first half of the season over the L3 seasons. StatFox Forecaster: TEXAS A&M 44, IDAHO 13

(165) BUFFALO (SU: 1-1, ATS: 2-0) at (166) BALL ST (-4) (SU: 1-1, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 7:00 PM Power Rating: BALL STATE 22-19 (Edge: BUFFALO by 1) Outplay factor: BALL STATE 15-13 (Edge: BUFFALO by 1.7) StatFox Forecaster: BALL ST 27, BUFFALO 12

(169) KENT ST (SU: 0-2, ATS: 0-2) at (170) KANSAS ST (-15) (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 7:00 PM

KEY GAME TREND: Bill Snyder is 16-3 ATS at home after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. StatFox Forecaster: KANSAS ST 33, KENT ST 20

(175) UTEP (-2) (SU: 1-1, ATS: 1-1) at (176) NEW MEXICO ST (SU: 1-1, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 8:00 PM Power Rating: UTEP 24-13 (Edge: UTEP by 9) Outplay factor: UTEP 19-6 (Edge: UTEP by 11) StatFox Forecaster: UTEP 32, NEW MEXICO ST 22

(183) HAWAII (-19.5) (SU: 1-1, ATS: 1-1) at (184) UNLV (SU: 0-2, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 10:00 PM Power Rating: HAWAII 36-17 (Edge: UNLV by 0.5) Outplay factor: HAWAII 30-11 (Edge: UNLV by 0.5) StatFox Forecaster: HAWAII 53, UNLV 16

(187) LA MONROE (SU: 1-1, ATS: 0-1) at (188) TCU (-27) (SU: 1-1, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 2:00 PM Power Rating: TCU 65-20 (Edge: TCU by 18) Outplay factor: TCU 53-12 (Edge: TCU by 14) StatFox Forecaster: TCU 49, LA MONROE 12

(189) ARKANSAS ST (SU: 1-1, ATS: 2-0) at (190) VIRGINIA TECH (-24) (SU: 2-0, ATS: 1-1) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 4:00 PM Power Rating: VIRGINIA TECH 57-33 (No Edge) Outplay factor: VIRGINIA TECH 50-32 (Edge: ARKANSAS STATE by 6) StatFox Forecaster: VIRGINIA TECH 33, ARKANSAS ST 19

(191) UCF (-5) (SU: 2-0, ATS: 2-0) at (192) FLA INTERNATIONAL (SU: 2-0, ATS: 2-0) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 6:00 PM Power Rating: UCF 46-36 (Edge: UCF by 5) Outplay factor: UCF 39-32 (Edge: UCF by 2) StatFox Forecaster: UCF 29, FLA INTERNATIONAL 23

(193) NORTH TEXAS (SU: 0-2, ATS: 0-2) at (194) ALABAMA (-45) (SU: 2-0, ATS: 2-0) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 7:30 PM Power Rating: ALABAMA 69-20 (Edge: ALABAMA by 4) Outplay factor: ALABAMA 63-20 (Edge: NORTH TEXAS by 2) StatFox Forecaster: ALABAMA 49, NORTH TEXAS 14

(195) TROY (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) at (196) ARKANSAS (-24.5) (SU: 2-0, ATS: 2-0) - Saturday, 9/17/2011 7:30 PM Power Rating: ARKANSAS 60-31 (Edge: ARKANSAS by 6) Outplay factor: ARKANSAS 53-22 (Edge: ARKANSAS by 6.5) StatFox Forecaster: ARKANSAS 49, TROY 24

www.StatFox.com 23 THE PLATINUM SHEET

SPORTSBOOK.COM BETTING TRENDS: SEPTEMBER 10-11

One of the hot resources utilized by handicappers is the public betting information o ered by a variety of sources. KEY: Leading the way is Sportsbook.com, which o ers up this data on both its .net and .com Web sites. Boasting massive sports betting customer databases, Sportsbook.com is able to present statistics that are accurately refl ective of public OL Opening Line FL Finishing Line sentiment, and hence useful to the handicapper studying them. These “Betting Trends” tell what percentage of bets is Score Final Game Score being placed on each side of a point spread, money line and total. Side % of bets on each side of spread This data can be used to profi t from. Most “sharps,” when given the option, choose to be on the side of the Total Top line = % of bets on Over bookmaker, or opposite that of the betting public. However, that side doesn’t always win, and some bettors believe W/L Winners and losers in the theory that there is “strength in numbers”—that group would rather follow the big money. By following these betting trends consistently, you’ll be able to form your own opinion. Here’s a look back at some of last week’s college and pro football results so that you can see how the public fared. Be sure to check with Sportsbook.com, particularly in the hour before the start of games, to see the most updated percentages of this week’s upcoming games.

09/10/2011 12:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/11/2011 1:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 307 OREGON STATE 56½ 56½ 0 10% 88% L 453 PITTSBURGH STEELERS 37 37 7 66% L 83% L 308 WISCONSIN -18 -21 35 90% W 12% 454 BALTIMORE RAVENS -2½ -1 35 34% 17%

09/10/2011 12:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/11/2011 1:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 309 IOWA -7 -7 41 82% L 53% W 455 DETROIT LIONS 40 44 27 63% W 84% W 310 IOWA STATE 43½ 44 44 18% 47% 456 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -3 -1½ 20 37% 16%

09/10/2011 12:20 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/11/2011 1:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 317 MISSISSIPPI STATE -6 -5 34 68% L 81% W 457 ATLANTA FALCONS -1 -2 12 80% L 74% W 318 AUBURN 55½ 57½ 41 32% 19% 458 CHICAGO BEARS 41 41 30 20% 26%

09/10/2011 12:30 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/11/2011 1:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 319 RUTGERS 47½ 50 22 29% 80% L 459 BUFFALO BILLS 42 39½ 41 40% 66% W 320 NORTH CAROLINA -10 -9½ 24 71% L 20% 460 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -6½ -4 7 60% L 34%

09/10/2011 3:30 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/11/2011 1:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 329 VIRGINIA TECH -19½ -17 17 75% L 85% L 461 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 46½ 44 7 45% 67% L 330 EAST CAROLINA 63½ 65½ 10 25% 15% 462 HOUSTON TEXANS -1½ -9 34 55% W 33%

09/10/2011 3:30 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/11/2011 1:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 337 CALIFORNIA -4 -6 36 82% L 74% W 463 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3½ -4 31 78% W 90% L 338 COLORADO 49 48½ 33 18% 26% 464 ST. LOUIS RAMS 44½ 44½ 13 22% 10%

09/10/2011 3:30 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/11/2011 1:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 339 STANFORD -19½ -21 44 93% W 81% L 465 CINCINNATI BENGALS 37 36½ 27 17% 63% W 340 DUKE 58½ 62 14 7% 19% 466 CLEVELAND BROWNS -3 -7 17 83% L 37%

09/10/2011 3:30 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/11/2011 1:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 341 ALABAMA -10½ -10½ 27 78% W 49% 467 TENNESSEE TITANS 40 37 14 84% L 69% L 342 PENN STATE 42 41½ 11 22% 51% W 468 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -2½ +1 16 16% 31%

09/10/2011 3:30 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/11/2011 4:15 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 343 TCU -2 -2 35 83% W 90% W 469 NEW YORK GIANTS -3 -1½ 14 70% L 86% W 344 AIR FORCE 48½ 50½ 19 17% 10% 470 WASHINGTON REDSKINS 38½ 41 28 30% 14%

09/10/2011 4:30 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/11/2011 4:15 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 351 SOUTH CAROLINA -3 -3 45 81% P 80% W 471 CAROLINA PANTHERS 37 37 21 15% 84% W 352 GEORGIA 51½ 51 42 19% 20% 472 ARIZONA CARDINALS -3 -7 28 85% P 16%

09/10/2011 7:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/11/2011 4:15 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 359 BYU 48 49½ 16 38% 65% L 473 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 40 38 17 25% 46% 360 TEXAS -6½ -7½ 17 62% L 35% 474 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -5½ -6 33 75% W 54% L

09/10/2011 7:30 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/11/2011 4:15 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 371 UTAH 52 51 14 56% W 65% L 475 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 41 44½ 17 39% 90% L 372 USC -10½ -7½ 17 44% 35% 476 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -9½ -9½ 24 61% L 10%

09/10/2011 8:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/11/2011 8:25 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 375 NOTRE DAME -4½ -3½ 31 47% 82% W 477 DALLAS COWBOYS 41 41 24 47% 82% W 376 MICHIGAN 55 57½ 35 53% W 18% 478 NEW YORK JETS -4 -6½ 27 53% L 18%

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