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2020 Fantasy Law Guide

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2020 Fantasy Law Guide 2020 FANTASY LAW GUIDE By: Nick Guarisco @FantasyLawGuy Tune into the “Fantasy Law Guy Podcast,” available on Apple & Spotify! “Morning podcast listen!! Took a drive to @FantasyLawGuy & listened to his NFC Players to Avoid pod! WOW! I don’t usually listen to redraft pods but this one was incredibly well researched & the narratives were hyper-logical. Good work, man! SUBBED!” - @TripleDFFP “If you have a fantasy draft approaching, I highly recommend listening to some @FantasyLawGuy podcasts. I can’t say enough good things about his in-depth knowledge and strategy w/ fantasy football.” - @BigChompaStyle “In the middle of @FantasyLawGuy first show and I’m a fan already. Loved the “no fantasy politics...rant.” Lol. Couldn’t find audio on Matthew Berry’s 100 facts and found his pod in a google search. Highly recommend.” - @CaseyClutch262 “The best podcast that nobody knows about.” - Andrew H. from Baton Rouge, Louisiana ^ My personal favorite review. Thanks? Fantasy Law Guide 2020 1 By: Nick Guarisco (@FantasyLawGuy) TABLE OF CONTENTS: 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Board & Strategy Guide - Draft Board – Rounds 1-9 …………………………………………..………. 3-37 - Taking Advantage of Default Rankings (ESPN/Yahoo!) ………..……… 38-40 - Draft Board – Rounds 10-17 ………………………………..………………. 41-54 o Homerun Handcuffs ………………………………..………………. 41 o Late Round QBs ………………………………………...…………… 42-44 o Sleeper RBs ……………………………………...…………………… 44-46 o Sleeper WRs ………………………………..………………………… 47-48 o Sleeper TEs …………………………………..………………………. 48-50 o DST Targets ………………………………….………………………. 51-52 o Kickers ………………………………………….…………………….. 52 o Deep League Dart Throws …………………………….…………... 53-54 - Commissioner’s Corner ……………………………………………….……… 55-70 o Super Flex Sex ………………………………………………………. 55-58 o Other Ways to Improve Your Fantasy Leagues ………….…….. 58-62 o Recommended Roster Settings & Scoring …………………….…. 62-65 - My Fantasy Football League History ……………………………………… 66-70 Contextualized Gamelogs - Introduction & Tips for Using “Contextualized Gamelogs” ………....... 71-74 - Arizona Cardinals ………………………….…………………..……..…....... 75-81 - Atlanta Falcons ………………………….…………………..……………….. 82-87 - Baltimore Ravens ……………………………………………..………….…. 88-95 - Buffalo Bills ……………………………………………..……………………. 96-102 - Carolina Panthers ………………………………………………..……….… 103-109 - Chicago Bears ……………………………………………..…………….…… 110-116 - Cincinnati Bengals ……………………………….………………..………... 117-121 - Cleveland Browns ……………………………….…….…………..…………. 122-131 - Dallas Cowboys ……………………………….………………..……………. 132-140 - Denver Broncos …………………………….…..………………..……………. 141-146 - Detroit Lions ………………………………...………………..…………….…. 147-154 - Green Bay Packers ……………………….……….…………………..……… 155-162 - Houston Texans ………………………….…….………………..……………. 163-169 - Indianapolis Colts ………………………..……….………………..……...…. 170-174 - Jacksonville Jaguars …………………..……………….……………..……… 175-181 - Kansas City Chiefs …………………………………………………..……….. 182-190 - Las Vegas Raiders …………………………………………………..………... 191-199 - Los Angeles Chargers ……………………………………...…………..…..… 200-210 - Los Angeles Rams ………………………………………..………..…………. 211-221 - Miami Dolphins ……………………………………..…………..………….… 222-228 - Minnesota Vikings ………………………………..………………..……...…. 229-236 - New England Patriots ………………………..…………………………..….. 237-246 - New Orleans Saints ………………………..………………………..……….. 247-254 - New York Giants ………………………..………………………..…………... 255-264 - New York Jets ……………..…………………………………..……………… 265-272 - Philadelphia Eagles …………………………………………………..………. 274-282 - Pittsburgh Steelers …………………………………………………..……….. 283-290 - San Francisco 49ers ………………………...………………………..………. 291-300 - Seattle Seahawks …………………………………………………..…………. 301-309 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers …………………………………………………..….. 310-316 - Tennessee Titans …………………...……………………………..………….. 317-324 - Washington Football Team ………………………….………………………. 325-330 Fantasy Law Guide 2020 2 By: Nick Guarisco (@FantasyLawGuy) 2020 FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT BOARD & STRATEGY GUIDE KEY: - Assumes 12-Team PPR or Half-PPR (QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, FLEX, K, DST) - ADPs Based Primarily on ESPN & Yahoo! Leagues & Experiences - Red = Quarterback - Blue = Running Back - Green = Wide Receiver - Orange = TigHt End - (^) – I Rank THis Player ABOVE Consensus ADP & Expert Opinion NOTE: It’s important to understand going in that the order of the players listed on my Draft Board are NOT actually my player rankings. This is a Draft Board and Strategy Guide. Ranking players for accuracy contests (i.e. where players will finish at each position) and ranking for purposes of drafting are two entirely different concepts! Unlike player rankings, the order of which players are listed below carefully consider a variety of factors outside of merely projecting point totals. Those factors include ADP, positional value, outlook variance, situational potential, cost- benefit analysis of drafting players as it pertains to winning season-long fantasy leagues, and much more. I cannot stress enough the distinction between player rankings and this Draft Board. Thank you for reading. Round 1 (Picks 1-4) - Unlike the vast majority of experts, I do not have a tier break after the Top-3. - In fact, I have all six of these RBs ranked closely together to the point where I see a sizable drop-off AFTER pick 6. In other words, I unequivocally view Kamara, Henry, and Edwards-Helaire as Top-6 selections, even if many websites rank them just outside of that. 1. Christian McCaffrey (RB1 – ADP: 1) – Outscored last year’s RB2 in by 8 PPG (!) in a prime LaDainian Tomlinson-esq season. Played 1,039 snaps (93% for team), leading all RBs by a wide margin. THe Panthers pusHed CMC to the limit last season to get Him 1K rusHing + 1K receiving bencHmarks (one of only three backs in NFL History to acHieve). We won’t see 403 toucHes again. We will see TD regression. SligHt worries about new coacHing staff (HC / OC) are somewHat mitigated by Joe Brady’s usage of Clyde-Edwards Helaire in receiving game for LSU. CMC is 0.3 PPR points away from finisHing as RB1 for 3 consecutive seasons! Even if He comes back down to earth, CMC’s “Healthy floor” feels like a Top-5 RB. 2. Saquon Barkley (RB2 – ADP: 2) – I’ve thougHt about ranking Barkley #1 overall on occasion. A Week 3 HigH ankle sprain limited production in 2019. Barkley returned too soon, admitted to not feeling Himself in Week 14. Exploded for 31.63 PPG (!) in final 3 games. Despite playing Hurt, Barkley’s 19.7 PPG in 12 games (minus Week 3 early exit) Fantasy Law Guide 2020 3 By: Nick Guarisco (@FantasyLawGuy) was RB6 Pace. New OC Jason Garrett is conservative. Young QB. May not Have ceiling of CMC because of His situation (Giants), but He’ll be fed relentlessly. 3. Ezekiel Elliott (RB3 – ADP: 3) – FinisHed RB5 despite slow-ish start (Hold out). Efficiency increased as He got back into football sHape. Bell cow back on one of the league’s best offenses. Second in rusHing attempts, Has cleared 300 carries and 1,357 RUYD in 3 straigHt seasons. Cowboys sHould be better than 8-8, meaning more positive game scripts for Zeke to close. Dip in catcHes expected due to Cowboys’ receiving weapons, but as safe a bet as any for double digit TDs. Pinnacle of Health (knock on wood or insure Zeke with Tony Pollard later). 4. Alvin Kamara (^) (RB4 – ADP: 4.5) – Back, knee, and ankle injuries, plus Brees’ absence Hampered Kamara througHout last season. Still finisHed as RB10 in PPG. AK Had scored a wHopping 31 TDs in 31 games prior to last season’s 6 TDs in 14 games. Positive TD regression coming. Saints Have a top-5 offense, great QB, creative RB-friendly schemer in Sean Payton, terrific O-Line, and winning team. Has caugHt 81 passes exactly in 3 straigHt seasons. I project more with Drew back this season (AK also Hit 81 despite missing 2 games last year). Contract year ($$$). Very sligHt edge over Zeke in PPR formats only and can make the case for AK41 over Barkley too (note that in non-PPR formats, I Have AK as RB5 beHind Henry). 5. Derrick Henry (^) (RB5 – ADP: 6) – League-winner with Ryan TanneHill under center. His numbers in 12 games with TanneHill, including postseason: 273-1,570-14 (5.7 YPC). His 22.5 PPG in that span was RB2 Pace, beHind only CMC. Recall incredible finisH to 2018 season as well; per JoHn Paulsen, in Henry’s last 22 games, He’s averaging 22.7 toucHes for 128 total yards (5.44 YPC) and 1.23 TDs per game! THis season, Henry faces the league’s softest scHedule against the run (per Warren SHarp). No team views their RB as a bigger focal point that they build the offense around than TEN. Losing run-blocking mauler RT Jack Conklin stings and TD regression looming, but Henry could snag more catcHes (only 18 receptions in 2019) sans Dion Lewis. Round 1 (Picks 5-12) - I’m not a huge fan of the middle picks (Picks 7-9) this year because I think you are more likely to land both RBs in this tier by picking at the end of Round 1. - Landing Josh Jacobs and someone like Joe Mixon in Rounds 1 and 2 is an ideal start if I’m picking late in Round 1 or near the turn. - YAHOO!: Jacobs is ranked 18th overall on Yahoo!, so it’s possible you can grab someone else toward the end of Round 1 if you’re confident you can secure Jacobs early in Round 2. 6. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (^) (RB6 – ADP: 8) – THe “FresH Prince of Helaire” was the CHiefs guy in Round 1 of the NFL Draft, coveted by GM Brett VeacH (wHo made Brian Westbrook comparisons), HC Andy Reid (wHose offense Has supported a Top-16 RB in 12/15 seasons), and even QB Pat Mahomes. We knew being the Hand-selected RB in this Reid and Mahomes-led prolific CHiefs offense was ideal. THen Damien Williams’ 2020 opt out Has propelled CEH
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