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Studies in Using Aerospace Systems and Methods F._ .v High Technology on Earth: Studies in Using Aerospace Systems and Methods Paul A. Hanle, Editor ' *• V SMITHSONIAN STUDIES IN AIR AND SPACE - NUMBER 3 SERIES PUBLICATIONS OF THE SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION Emphasis upon publication as a means of "diffusing knowledge" was expressed by the first Secretary of the Smithsonian. In his formal plan for the Institution, Joseph Henry outlined a program that included the following statement: "It is proposed to publish a series of reports, giving an account of the new discoveries in science, and of the changes made from year to year in all branches of knowledge." This theme of basic research has been adhered to through the years by thousands of titles issued in series publications under the Smithsonian imprint, commencing with Smithsonian Contributions to Knowledge in 1848 and continuing with the following active series: Smithsonian Contributions to Anthropology Smithsonian Contributions to Astrophysics Smithsonian Contributions to Botany Smithsonian Contributions to the Earth Sciences Smithsonian Contributions to the Marine Sciences Smithsonian Contributions to Paleobiology Smithsonian Contributions to Zoology Smithsonian Studies in Air and Space Smithsonian Studies in History and Technology In these series, the Institution publishes small papers and full-scale monographs that report the research and collections of its various museums and bureaux or of professional colleagues in the world of science and scholarship. The publications are distributed by mailing lists to libraries, universities, and similar institutions throughout the world. Papers or monographs submitted for series publication are received by the Smithsonian Institution Press, subject to its own review for format and style, only through departments of the various Smithsonian museums or bureaux, where the manuscripts are given sub­ stantive review. Press requirements for manuscript and art preparation are outlined on the inside back cover. S. Dillon Ripley Secretary Smithsonian institution SMITHSONIAN STUDIES IN AIR AND SPACE • NUMBER 3 High Technology on Earth Studies in Using Aerospace Systems and Methods Paul A. Hanle EDITOR SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION PRESS City of Washington 1979 ABSTRACT Hanle, Paul A., editor. High Technology on Earth: Studies in Using Aerospace Sys­ tems and Methods. Smithsonian Studies in Air and Space, number 3, 58 pages, 1 fig­ ure, 1979. —This collection of case studies describes how engineers or managers applied their arts to five complex problems on earth. A variety of aerospace methods and hardware were employed. Two of the cases concern "hard" technological develop­ ments: the construction of liquefied natural gas tankers and the creation of an auto­ mated system to transport people in Morgantown, West Virginia, both investigated by Susan Frutkin. Three cases address aerospace software and methods of analysis: the use of a technique of prediction developed by defense consultants, called "Delphi," by which opinions are collected and a sort of consensus is induced, investigated by J. Gordon Milliken; the use of mathematical modeling in a computer to simulate the flow of financial securities; and an attempt to reform some of California's public services through aerospace systems analysis, both investigated by Carole R. Cristiano. The focal point of each study lies in analyzing the political, technical, and bureau­ cratic forces at work in developing a complex system. Each study is summarized in a separate, short comment, which also discusses how conflicts of goals and judgment conditioned the outcome of the development. The editor's critical introduction to the entire work places the five studies in a context of contemporary writing on technology and society. OFFICIAL PUBLICATION DATE is handstamped in a limited number of initial copies and is recorded in the Institution's annual report, Smithsonian Year. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data High technology on earth. (Smithsonian studies in air and space ; no. 3) Bibliography: p. 1. Technology —Addresses, essays, lectures. 2. Technology —Social aspects —Addresses, essays, lectures. I. Hanle, Paul A. II. Series. T185.H53 600 78-14329 Contents INTRODUCTION, by Paul A. Hanle 1 POLITICS AND THE PEOPLE MOVER, by Susan Fmtkin 9 LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS TANKERS, by Susan Frutkin 19 THE DELPHI METHOD OF TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING, by J. Gordon Milliken 30 COMPUTER SIMULATION AND THE SECURITIES INDUSTRY, by Carole R. Cristiano 44 SYSTEMS ANALYSIS IN THE CALIFORNIA STUDIES OF PUBLIC SERVICES, by Carole R. Cristiano 53 High Technology on Earth Introduction Paul A. Hanle A few words are in order to explain what is at­ The following studies describe managerial methods tempted in this book. We should begin with a dis­ as well as technological "hardware," the approach of claimer: it is not a litany of benefits from the aero­ systems analysis, and the discipline and principles of space industry, nor is it a study of the impact of aerospace engineering. Encompassing the processes of "technology transfer" as the National Aeronautics and using these, a suitably general but definite term was Space Administration (NASA) and other federal sought to motivate the title of this book, for each of the agencies have fostered it. Rather, this small collection usual terms was in some way unsuitable. To scholars of of case studies describes how engineers applied aero­ international economic and technological develop­ space arts to five complex problems on earth, each of ment, the familiar but ambiguous "technology trans­ which entailed dealing with an array of hazards and in fer" means international aid: sending bulldozers to which were employed a variety of aerospace ap­ Iran and teaching villagers in Upper Volta to drill proaches. The cases range from the development of deep water wells. "Fringe benefits of space" and liquefied natural gas tankers to the reform of some of "spin-off are associated with NASA, but much of the California's public services. In addition, they include technology described below comes as well from work the construction of a "people mover" in Morgantown, done on federal defense contracts, a circumstance that West Virginia; the use of mathematical modeling to occurs again in a larger sample of cases than presented simulate the flow of securities; and the use of a tech­ here.1 (The reason is that the source of much inven­ nique called "Delphi" for collecting expert opinions tion resides in the aerospace contractor, who has both and inducing a sort of consensus. To be truthful, none NASA and defense work, not in the contracting agen­ of these studies document the history of problems that cy, which may wish to take the credit.) "Technology have been completely "solved," although there were utilization," though homely, comes closest to describ­ several impressive technical successes. ing the situation. Unfortunately, in normal aerospace The focal point of each study lay in analyzing the usage it also embraces the profitable use in flying forces at play in developing a complex system, not machines of aerospace technology— the technical ben­ merely in pronouncing each attempt a success or a efits of the "Landsat" Earth Resources Satellite, for failure. To accomplish this analysis would mean to example— and these are excluded from this book. learn a little of how to use other high technological in­ So we have settled on a less elegant phrase—using ventions, and this was the purpose of our research. We on earth the technology of the air and space industry, have concluded that it is always difficult but still pro­ or simply aerospace technology on earth. There is no ductive to attempt judiciously to use aerospace inven­ difficulty in denoting the diverse elements of aerospace tions for other purposes. Not only what is judicious, expertise with the term "technology," because tech­ but how that is determined is the crux of each of the nology has in recent years come to mean the applica­ cases presented below. tion in general of knowledge for practical ends, and that application may be through discipline, principle, Paul A. Hanle, Department of Science and Technology, National methods, hardware, or people. Air and Space Museum, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, D.C. 20560. Such concern for a proper title may seem gratui- 2 SMITHSONIAN STUDIES IN AIR AND SPACE tous. Still, if one does not begin on the right foot, one search of a depth and style theretofore not under­ soon stumbles in this obstacle-strewn field. Like the taken. distinction between industrial invention (creating an If this was not obvious at first, it became so after the original thought or device) and industrial innovation hired investigations got underway. Many instances of (changing that which is produced for sale or use,2 the applying aerospace technology had not been re­ distinction between building air and space vehicles searched fully,5 and each of the cases investigated by and applying the expertise gained thereby is crucial, the researchers seemed to be governed by its own set of yet it is often muddled in lay and professional minds rules. Soon they concluded that the scope of the term alike. Furthermore, it is both transfer and diffusion of "technology transfer" was too limited—it was not a technique that we consider here, a broader sweep than process, but many processes, each of which seemed to is properly covered by the terms we have discounted. be defined only by the case that it described. These processes were entwined on each other so that they Research for the National Air and Space Museum became harder to follow the further one progressed In early 1972, the administration of the National from the starting point. Indeed, there seemed to be a Air and Space Museum began to plan a permanent principle of frustration at work, in which if one began exhibition on the "Benefits from Flight." As one of the with a "benefit" (a device, system, or even an idea of major exhibitions of the Smithsonian Institution, immediate use), its connections to aerospace industry "Benefits" received congressional funding of one-half were lost in a mist of subsequent commercial develop­ million dollars and required four years to complete.
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