Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, Texas

COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Policy Development and Research As of December 1, 2009

Summary

Economy Rental Market Housing Market Area Job growth in the Killeen-Temple-Fort The rental housing market in the HMA Hood HMA has slowed significantly is currently soft, with an estimated during the past 12 months to a overall vacancy rate of nearly 17 percent, 0.4-percent rate, compared with a which is unchanged from a year earlier. 3.6-percent rate for the 12 months Overall rental vacancies have remained ending November 2008. During the high, and average apartment rents have next 3 years, employment growth decreased because of the high turnover is expected to increase by 1 percent of military-connected households. Dur- annually, partially due to gains in the ing the forecast period, no demand is Bosque education and health services sector, expected for additional new market-rate Hamilton McLennan which grew by more than 4 percent rental units in the HMA (see Table 1). Mills Coryell during the past 12 months. Additional

Lampasas Falls employment data for the HMA appear Table 1. Housing Demand in the Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood Bell in Table DP-1 at the end of this report. HMA, 3-Year Forecast,

Burnet Milam December 1, 2009 to Williamson Sales Market December 1, 2012 The sales housing market in the HMA Killeen-Temple- is somewhat soft, with an estimated Fort Hood HMA The Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, Texas current overall vacancy rate of 3.1 Sales Rental Units Units Housing Market Area (HMA) is centrally percent. During the forecast period, located in the state, approximately 60 miles employment and population gains are Total Demand 4,225 0 north of Austin, and consists of Bell, expected to support demand for 3,925 Under Construction 510 60 Coryell, and Lampasas Counties. The new market-rate sales housing units Notes: Total demand represents estimated pro- principal cities of Killeen and Temple are and an additional 300 mobile homes. duction necessary to achieve a balanced market located in Bell County. The Fort Hood at the end of the forecast period. Total sales The 510 homes currently under demand includes an estimated demand for 300 Army post is located adjacent to Killeen mobile homes. Units under construction as of construction will satisfy a portion of December 1, 2009. A portion of the estimated and occupies 340 square miles of both that demand (see Table 1). In addi- 13,400 other vacant units in the HMA will likely Bell and Coryell Counties. satisfy some of the forecast demand. tion, a portion of the 13,400 other Source: Estimates by analyst vacant units in the HMA may come back on the market and satisfy some Market Details of the demand. Economic Conditions...... 2 Population and Households...... 4 Housing Market Trends...... 6 Data Profile...... 9 K i l l e e n - Te m p l e - F o r t Hood, TX • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 2 Source: U.S.Bureau ofLaborStatistics Numbers maynot addtototalsbecauseofrounding. Notes: Basedon 12-month averagesthroughNovember 2008andNovember2009. Table 2.12-MonthAverage EmploymentintheKilleen-Temple- Economic Conditions Total NonfarmEmployment Service Providing Goods Producing Government Other Services Leisure &Hospitality Education &HealthServices Professional &BusinessServices Financial Activities Information Transportation &Utilities Wholesale &RetailTrade Manufacturing Mining, Logging,&Construction Fort HoodHMA,bySector has anannualeconomicimpactof and 5,580civilianemployees employs morethan57,300soldiers Chamber ofCommerce,thebase According totheGreaterKilleen leading single-siteemployerinTexas. training anddeployingsoldiers,isthe Army installationsinthenationfor Fort Hood,whichisoneofthelargest due tohiringbylocalgovernments. by 1,600jobs,or4.7percent,mainly Government employmentincreased 12 monthsendingNovember2009. most jobsofanysectorduringthe nonfarm jobsintheHMA,added accounts fornearly30percentofall The governmentsector,which 2.6 percent. through 2008averaged3,250jobs,or comparison, annualgainsfrom2005 or 0.4percent,to127,000jobs.In employment increasedby500jobs, ending November2009,totalnonfarm since 2003.Duringthe12months posting thearea’slowestgrowthrate slowed duringthepast12months, E 12 Months November 112,000 126,500 Ending 34,000 12,100 17,600 10,900 19,300 14,500 2008 4,900 6,000 2,600 4,500 8,600 6,000 Temple-Fort HoodHMA mployment intheKilleen- 12 Months November 113,400 127,000 Ending 35,600 12,100 18,600 10,400 19,000 13,600 2009 5,000 6,000 2,500 4,300 7,900 5,700 Change Percent – 4.6 – 1.6 – 3.8 – 4.4 – 8.1 – 5.0 – 6.2 4.7 0.0 5.7 1.3 0.4 2.0 0.0 Inc., andMcLaneSouthwest, with Clinics andtheMcLaneCompany, & WhiteMemorialHospital and employers intheHMAareScott effort. Thetwoleadingprivatesector new jobsareexpectedfromthejoint of 2010.Itisuncertainhowmany which isscheduledtoopeninthefall $6.5-million medicalofficebuilding, Health Systemarepartneringona & WhiteHealthcareandMetroplex Adventist Hospitals.Currently,Scott White MemorialandMetroplex Center andexpansionsatScott& of thenewSueMaybornWomen’s the sectorisattributedtocompletion (see Table2).Muchofthegrowthin 1,000 jobs,anincreaseof5.7percent health servicessector,whichadded growth occurredintheeducationand vember 2009,thehighestrateofjob During the12monthsendingNo facility iscompleted. civilian jobswillbecreatedwhenthe in 2013.Itisuncertainhowmany in September2010andbecompleted Medical Centerisexpectedtostart $1 billionCarlR.DarnallArmy positions. Constructionofthenew which weredown5percent,or300 the lossofconstructionsectorjobs, military contractshelpedminimize 12 monthsendingNovember2009, be permanentresidents.Duringthe of trainingbutarenotexpectedto be atFortHoodforafewmonths reservists eachyear.Traineeswill 25,000 ArmyNationalGuardand however, isaddingamissiontotrain The FirstArmyDivisionWest, and Realignment(BRAC)actions. Department ofDefenseBaseClosure Colorado, partlyaresultofthe2005 Fort CarsoninColoradoSprings, nearly 6,500militarypersonnelto During thepastyear,FortHoodlost more than$7billionontheHMA. -

K i l l e e n - Te m p l e - F o r t Hood, TX • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 3 Temple Economic Development Corp. 2009 Source: Greater Killeen Chamber of Commerce and Fort Hood Fact Book, September 2008. Table 3. Sprint Pactiv Corporation Wilsonart International Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. Central Texas College Central Texas Veterans HealthCare System McLane Company, Inc.andMcLaneSouthwest Civilian PersonnelatFortHood Scott &WhiteMemorialHospitalClinics III Corps&FortHood

Major EmployersintheKilleen-T Economic Conditions Employer Name of Source: U.S.Bureau ofLabor Statistics Note: Basedon12-monthaverages through November 2009. Figure 1. 3.9% Other Services Government 28.0% Government Continued – 2010 9.5% Hospitality Leisure & ent EmploymentintheKilleen- Temple-Fort HoodHMA,bySector Curr emple-Fort HoodHMA Information Manufacturing Manufacturing Wholesale &RetailTrade Education &HealthServices Education &HealthServices Wholesale &RetailTrade Government Education &HealthServices Government 14.6% Education &HealthServices Temple, one-halfofwhichtooka laid offmorethan100workersin which fabricatessurfacingmaterials, ber 2009.WilsonartInternational, during the12monthsendingNovem by 700jobs,ormorethan8percent, The manufacturingsectordecreased sector. current employmentintheHMAby tively (seeTable3).Figure1shows 6,850 and2,400employees,respec Employment Sector Construction 4.5% Mining, Logging,& Manufacturing 6.2% Business Services8.2% Professional & 4.7% Financial Activities Information 2.0% 14.9% Retail Trade Wholesale & Utilities 3.4% Transportation & Employees Number of 57,300 1,000 1,075 1,200 1,400 1,500 2,275 2,400 5,575 6,850 - - the HMA from 1990 to the current date. Figure 3illustratessectorgrowthin forecasted jobgrowthintheHMA. account forthebulkofremaining marily atthelocallevel,willlikely sector andgovernmentsector,pri- 2 percentayear.Theotherservices employment isexpectedtogrowby By the end of the 3-year forecast period, sector expected to lead the job growth. with the education and health services 0.5 percent during the next 12 months, Employment isexpectedtogrowby in theHMAfrom1990to2008. employment, andunemploymentrate trends inthelaborforce,resident averaged 5.4 percent. Figure 2 illustrates 5 years,theunemploymentratehas November 2009.Duringthepast 6.5 percentforthe12monthsending unemployment rate,whichaveraged contributed toanincreaseinthe coupled withcorporatedownsizing, occurred duringthepast12months, The sloweremploymentgrowththat workers andtemporaryemployees. administrative andbusinessservices The lossofjobswasprimarilyamong 12 monthsendingNovember2009. positions, or4.6percent,duringthe as well,withjoblossestotaling500 ness servicessectorweresignificant Declines intheprofessionalandbusi 160 and90positions,respectively. facturing company,withdeclinesof lics andIzzydesign,achairmanu loss alsooccurredatTexasHydrau voluntary retirementpackage.Job -

K i l l e e n - Te m p l e - F o r t Hood, TX • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 4 Source: U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics Note: Currentisbasedon12-monthaveragesthroughNovember 2009. Figure 3.SectorGrowthintheKilleen-Temple-FortHoodHMA,PercentageChange,1990toCurrent – 20 Population andHouseholds Economic Conditions Figure 2.TrendsinLaborForce,ResidentEmployment,andUnemploymentRatetheKilleen-Temple- 0 Source: U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics

Labor Force & Resident Employment 100,000 110,000 120,000 130,000 140,000 150,000 160,000 170,000 180,000 20 80,000 90,000 Fort HoodHMA,1990to2008

40 1990

1991 Continued 60 1992

Labor Force 1993 city currently has a population of city currently hasapopulationof city inthenation, at3.8percent.The any fastest populationgrowth rateof Killeenhadtheninth able), thecityof July 2008(themostrecentdataavail - A 80

1994

1995 100 Bureau, fromJuly 2007to ccording to the U.S. Census

1996

120 1997 Resident Employment

1998 140

1999

2000 160

2001

2002 180 growth since 2000averaged 1.6percent a year earlier. Incomparison, population 1.8 percent compared with the population at 383,800, anincreaseof reflecting Temple-Fort Hood HMA is estimated the Killeen- 2009, thepopulationof December1, more than100,000.Asof

2003

Unemployment Rate 2004 Total NonfarmEmployment

Service Providing Goods Producing 2005 Education &HealthServices Professional &BusinessServices Financial Activities Transportation &Utilities Wholesale &RetailTrade Manufacturing Government Other Services Leisure &Hospitality Mining, Logging,&Construction Information

2006

2007

2008 10.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0

Unemployment Rate

K i l l e e n - Te m p l e - F o r t Hood, TX • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 5 Figure 4. by analyst Sources: 1990and2000—1990Census2000Census;currentforecast—estimates Figure 6.PopulationandHouseholdGrowth intheKilleen-Temple-Fort Figure 5.NumberofHouseholdsbyTenureintheKilleen-Temple- by analyst Sources: 1990and 2000—1990Censusand2000Census; currentandforecast—estimates Sources: 1990and2000—1990Census2000Census;current—estimates byanalyst Average Annual Change Average Annual Change 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Population andHouseholds 0 0 0

Fort HoodHMA,1990toForecast Components ofPopulationChangeintheKilleen-Temple- Fort HoodHMA,1990toForecast Hood HMA,1990toCurrent 1990 to2000 1990 to2000 1990 Net NaturalChange Population Continued Renter 2000 toCurrent 2000 toCurrent Fort Carsonduringthepastyear. personnelfromFort Hoodto military is attributedtothereassignmentof populationgrowth The lower rateof due toexpansions atFort Hood. annually from2005through2007 a year butacceleratedto2.3percent 2000 Net Migration Households Owner Current toForecast Current toForecast Current date the HMA population andhouseholdgrowth in December 1,2012.Figure6shows and totalapproximately 134,100by by 1,825,or1.4percent,annually householdsisexpected toincrease of During the forecast period, the number date for 1990,2000,andthecurrent households bytenure intheHMA Figure 5illustratesthenumber of the HMAhas128,600households. a year duringthe1990s. Currently, 2,300,or2.3percent, an increaseof or 1.4percent,ayear comparedwith householdshasincreasedby1,725, of ous decade. Since 2000,thenumber slower since 2000 than during the previ growth intheHMAhasalsobeen household tion growth, the rateof Largely duetothedeclineinpopula to theforecastdate. lation change intheHMA from1990 popu- Figure 4forthecomponentsof 403,000 byDecember1,2012.See next 3years andtotalapproximately grow by1.6percentayear duringthe theHMAisforecastto population of out the3-year forecastperiod.The average 1,300peopleayear through- isexpectedNet in-migration to 6,500 personnelfromFort Hood. nearlya year, duetothetransferof 750people tion growth, anaverage of thepopula only about15percentof hasaccountedfor net in-migration minus residentdeaths).Since2000, net naturalchange (residentbirths thegrowth camefrom remainder of thepopulationgain; 30 percentof accounted forslightly morethan duringthatdecade in-migration 6,200ayear, or2.1percent.Net of the HMAincreasedbyanaverage During the1990s, thepopulationof . from 1990totheforecast

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K i l l e e n - Te m p l e - F o r t Hood, TX • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 6 Housing Market Trends Sales Market as 90ormoredays delinquent,in loans inof Bell County were classified Data, asDecember of 2009, 4.3 percent Services, Inc., Performance Mortgage According toLenderProcessing for the period ending November 2008. an increasefromthe6-monthsupply averaged morethana7-monthsupply, available inventory inTemple-Belton ending November 2008.Likewise, the 7-month supply for the12months supply, whichisanincreasefromthe averaged morethan8monthsof in theKilleen-Fort Hoodmarket new andexisting homes inventory of ending November 2009,theavailable at $140,000.Duringthe12months Belton alsoremainedessentially flat, The average salespriceinTemple- 12 monthsendingNovember 2009. at$126,400,forthe remained flat, new andexisting homesalesprice Killeen andFort Hood,theaverage Despite thehomesalesdeclinein between 2006and2008. averaged 1,875unitssoldannually ous 12-monthperiod.Temple-Belton with salesrecordedduringtheprevi- which isunchanged whencompared Belton, salestotaled1,750units, averaged 3,450annually. InTemple- existing homesales the number of 12 months. Between 2006and2008, the number soldduringtheprevious 5percentcompared with decrease of and Fort Hoodtotaled2,575units, a existing homesinKilleen sales of 12 monthsendingNovember 2009, at Texas A&MUniversity, duringthe According totheReal EstateCenter new homesforsale. ing supply of economy, combinedwithanincreas householdsandaslowermilitary demand resultingfromthelossof is somewhat softduetodecreased Killeen-Temple-Fort HoodHMA The saleshousingmarketinthe

be in Bell County. A portion of this be inBellCounty. of Aportion whichareexpected to 80 percentof market-rate homesintheHMA, demand isestimatedfor3,925new During the3-year forecastperiod, date.from 1990tothecurrent issuedintheHMA building permits single-family shows thenumber of and LampasasCounties. Figure7 in the unincorporated Coryell areas of homes areofferedaslow as$90,000 outlying counties. New single-family price generally available only inthe $125,000 to$175,000,withthelower in theHMAtypically range from homes for newly starter constructed and Temple, was $119,100. Prices Bell County, whichincludesKilleen contrast, themedianhomevalue in CountywasCoryell $101,400.In (ACS), themedianhomevalue in 2008 AmericanCommunity Survey Cove. Accordingtodatafromthe Coryell County in the city Copperas of Killeenin of Heights andalsonorth between Killeen and Temple in Harker isconcentrated home construction nually from2004through2007.New issuedan 3,125permits average of remained well below thedecade-high activityfamily has homeconstruction data.Since2008,single- preliminary ending November 2008,basedon issued duringthe12-monthperiod compared withthe1,575permits issued was up 6 percent to 1,675 homes single-family permits the number of 12 monthsendingNovember 2009, in employment growth. Duringthe the reduceddemandandslowdown issued,hasincreaseddespite permits by the number single-family of building asmeasured New homeconstruction, from December2008. Owned), up0.8percentage points foreclosure, orinREO(Real Estate

K i l l e e n - Te m p l e - F o r t Hood, TX • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 7 Sales MarketContinued Housing Market Trends Source: Estimates by analyst of the forecast sales demand. Note: A portion of the 13,400 other vacant units in the HMA will likely satisfy some Source: U.S.CensusBureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey Notes: Includesonlysingle-familyunits.datathroughNovember2009. Figure 7. Table 4. 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 500 0

1990

Estimated DemandforNewMarket-RateSalesHousingin December 1,2012 the Killeen-Temple-FortHoodHMA,December1,2009to 100,000 125,000 150,000 175,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 Single-Family BuildingPermitsIssuedintheKilleen- Temple-Fort HoodHMA,1990to2009 90,000 From 1991

1992 Price Range($) 1993

1994

1995 and higher 124,999 149,999 174,999 199,999 249,999 299,999 1996 99,999

To 1997

family homesand projectswithfewer market conditions aresoftestforsingle- recorded in2000(seeFigure 8). Rental more thandoublethe8.2-percent rate unchanged fromayear earlier but vacancy rate is estimated at 17 percent–– overallthe HMA.Thecurrent rental vacant unitsin the large number of troopsof to Colorado, hascontributedto coupled withthe2005BRAC relocation forces. Significant deploy thebe occupiedbymembersof armed market intheHMAisestimatedto Approximately therental 40 percent of new mult supply of connected householdsandasteady military- due tothehighturnover of is softandhasbeenforseveral years The rentalhousingmarketintheHMA Rental Market 1998

1999

2000

2001 Demand Units of 2002 470 669 790 627 510 388 196 275

2003

ifamil 2004

2005 m y rental units. ent overseas, 2006 Percent of Total 2007 12.0 17.0 20.1 16.0 13.0 9.9 5.0 7.0 2008

2009 housing inventory inthe HMA. thetotal an estimated7percentof Mobile homescurrently makeup homes duringthenext 3years. demand isestimatedfor300mobile theforecastperiod.Inaddition, of to 1,400homesduringthelastyear ing 2010andisexpected toincrease expected toaverage 1,200homesdur the HMAbypricerange. Demandis for new market-ratesaleshousingin Table 4illustratesestimated demand theforecastdemand. satisfy someof may comebackonthemarketand 13,400 othervacant unitsintheHMA the Table of 1).Inaddition,aportion (see currently underconstruction demand willbemetbythe510homes 2009 Department of Housing and of 2009 Department market. According toaSeptember are betterthanintheoverall rental market Conditions intheapartment thetotalrenter-occupiedunits. of units, accountedforonly 23percent those instuctureswithfive ormore Units typically considered accounting for another 30 percent. units intwo- to four-unit structures single-family ormobilehomes, with renter-occupied unitswere either the of to theACS, nearly one-half the 2008ACS data. Alsoaccording the 22,450vacant units, accordingto andapproximatelytory 80percentof therentalinven- nearly 80percentof than five units, whichaccountfor apar tments,

K i l l e e n - Te m p l e - F o r t Hood, TX • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 8 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey data through November 2009. Notes: Includes all multifamily units in structures with two or more units. Includes Figure 8. Figure 9. Source: U.S.Census Bureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey data throughNovember 2009. Notes: Includesall multifamilyunitsinstructures withtwoormoreunits.Includes 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Rental Market Housing Market Trends 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 200 400 600 800 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 0

1990 acancy RatesintheKilleen-Temple-Fort Hood

HMA, 1990toCurrent Rental V Fort HoodHMA,1990toCurrent Multifamily BuildingPermitsIssuedintheKilleen-Temple- 1991

1992 Continued 1990 1993 13.7

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999 2008. of quarter the fourth more than3percentfromtherentsfor 2009averaged $600,declining ter of quar- rents intheHMAforfourth METRICS INC., effective market-rate respectively. AccordingtoAXIO for one-, two-, and three-bedroom units, rents were $680,$800,and$1,000 vacancy rate 6.5 of percent, and average apartment market was balanced, with a for atwo-bedroom unit.TheTemple $630 for a one-bedroom unit and $770 rentsinKilleenaveragedApartment soft, withan8-percentvacancy rate. ment market in Killeen was somewhat Urban Development survey, the apart 2000

2000 8.2

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006 Current 16.7

2007

2008 2009

the number of multifamily unitsper the number of under construction. Figure 9 illustrates Currently, 60multifamily unitsare ment was increasingmorerapidly. between 2004 and 2007, when employ annual 910unitspermitted average of hasdeclinedwell belowstruction the multifamily con 2 years, thepaceof data.Duringthepast preliminary ending November 2008,basedon duringthe12months units permitted November 2009comparedwith620 90 unitsduringthe12monthsending decreased85percentto permitted, multifamily units by thenumber of Multifamily construction, as measured current softmarket conditions.current housing stockwillonly prolongthe new rentalunitstothe addition of units fortheforecastperiod.The to exceed demandfor rentalhousing excess vacant unitsareexpected of andthesupply under construction rate rental units in the HMA. The units is forecastforadditionalnew market- During thenext 3years, nodemand requirements.infrastructure delays expected inordertomeet of for bothprojectsisunclearbecause $10 million. The construction timeline have development coststotaling Ranch Apartments, isexpected to community, apartment luxury Wells median family income. A200-unit thearea no morethan80percentof that isaffordabletotenantsearning individuals andcaprentsatalevel will setasideunitsforlower income Apartments Constitution Court to cost$13millionuponcompletion. ments, with106units, isestimated - Apart ConstitutionCourt struction. County, have beenapproved forcon- Copperas Cove, locatedinCoryell Two rentalcomplexes inthecityof date.current mitted intheHMAfrom1990to

K i l l e e n - Te m p l e - F o r t Hood, TX • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 9 Data Profile Sources: Estimatesbyanalyst;U.S.CensusBureau;DepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopment family incomesarefor1989,1999,and2008. Notes: Employmentdatarepresentannualaveragesfor1990,2000,andthe12monthsthroughNovember2009.Median Table DP-1.Killeen-Temple-Fort HoodHMADataProfile, 1990toCurrent Owner Households Total Households Total Population Median FamilyIncome Rental Vacancy Rate(%) Owner Vacancy Rate(%) Total HousingUnits Percent Renter(%) Renter Households Percent Owner(%) Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate(%) Total ResidentEmployment

268,820 $26,429 101,120 41,620 47,365 88,985 77,900 93,215 1990 13.7 46.8 53.2 3.1 7.4 112,011 330,714 109,800 $40,882 122,159 127,800 48,590 63,421 2000 43.4 56.6 8.2 2.2 4.4 128,600 383,800 127,000 $54,000 154,250 150,600 Current 48,200 80,400 16.7 37.5 62.5 3.1 6.5

1990 to2000 Average AnnualChange(%) 2.3 2.1 3.5 4.5 1.9 1.6 3.0 3.2

2000 toCurrent – 0.1 1.4 1.6 1.6 3.1 2.4 2.5 1.9

K i l l e e n - Te m p l e - F o r t Hood, TX • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 10 FortHoodTX_10.pdf publications/pdf/CMARtables_Killeen-Temple- market forthisHMA,goto For tothehousing additionaldatapertaining specified as “other” vacant by the Census Bureau. workers;use; usedbymigrant andthecategory held forseasonal,recreational,oroccasional includes unitsrentedorsoldbutnotoccupied; available therefore forsaleorrent.Theterm vacant unitsincludeallvacant unitsthatarenot Other Vacant Units:InHUD’s analysis, other the development pipeline. orunitsin for unitscurrently underconstruction excess vacancies. Theestimatesdonotaccount theanalysis, growth, losses, and dateof the as-of the3-year forecastperiodgiven conditionson of needed toachieve abalancedmarketattheend thetotalhousing production the estimatesof buildingactivity.are notaforecastof Theyare Demand: Thedemandestimatesinthisanalysis Forecast period:12/1/2009–12/1/2012— date:12/1/2009—Analyst’sCurrent estimates 2000: 4/1/2000—U.S. DecennialCensus 1990: 4/1/1990—U.S. DecennialCensus Data DefinitionsandSources Analyst’s estimates www.huduser.org/publications/econdev/mkt_analysis.html For on othermarketareas, additionalreports pleasego to . www.huduser.org/ conditions. onlocaleconomicandhousing market and information state andlocalgovernment officials whoprovided data sources and expresses itsappreciation tothoseindustry may bemodifiedbysubsequentdevelopments. HUD national sources. Assuch,findingsorconclusions datefromlocaland availableinformation ontheas-of aspossiblebased on are asthoroughandcurrent and MarketAnalysis Division. Theanalysis andfindings guidelines andmethodsdeveloped byHUD’s Economic The factualframework forthisanalysis follows the may beunderconsiderationbytheDepartment. insuranceproposalsthat anymortgage of acceptability regardingthe tomakedeterminations does notpurport local housingmarketconditionsandtrends. Theanalysis ful tobuilders, mortgagees, with andothers concerned findings,information, andconclusionsmay alsobeuse Development (HUD)initsoperations. Thefactual theU.S. HousingandUrban guidance of of Department This analysis fortheassistanceand hasbeenprepared [email protected] 817–978–9414 Fort Worth HUDRegional Office L. David Vertz, Economist Contact Information . -