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Managing Regional and Global Security June 2–3, 2011 Istanbul, Turkey CONSTRUCTIVE POWERS INITIATIVE: MANAGING REGIONAL AND GLOBAL SECURITY JUNE 2–3, 2011 ISTANBUL, TURKEY CONFERENCE REPORT 57 Erb Street West Waterloo Ontario N2L 6C2 Canada 519 885 2444 | cigonline.org CONSTRUCTIVE POWERS INITIATIVE: MANAGING REGIONAL AND GLOBAL SECURITY June 2–3, 2011, ISTANBUL, TURKEY CONFERENCE REPORT Copyright © 2011 by The Centre for International Governance Innovation The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Centre for International Governance Innovation or its Operating Board of Directors or International Board of Governors. Copyright © 2011. This work was carried out with the support of The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI), Waterloo, Ontario, Canada (www.cigionline.org). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution — Non-commercial — No Derivatives License. To view this license, visit (www.creativecommons.org/licenses/ by-nc-nd/3.0/). For re-use or distribution, please include this copyright notice. First published in 2011. Cover and page design by Steve Cross. TABLE OF CONTENTS WORKSHOP REPORT, Fen Hampson, Meliha Altunisik and Paul Heinbecker 6 NATIONAL POLICY PERSPECTIVE PaPERS 9 Australia: Coping with State Fragility and Non-Traditional Security Risks, John Ravenhill 9 Australia: Mind the Gap — Hard Power and Asia’s Uncertain Security Future, Andrew Shearer 10 Major Security Challenges Faced by Brazil: A Perspective from South America in the Beginning of the Twenty-first Century, Paulo Cordeiro de Andrade Pinto 12 Major Security Challenges in Indonesia Today, Aleksius Jemadu 13 Korea: Three Concerns, Dong Hwi Lee 14 Mexico: Taking Stock of Regional and Global Security Threats, Carlos A. Heredia 15 South Africa as a Constructive Power, Jakkie Cilliers 16 Major Security Challenges Facing Switzerland, Fred Tanner 17 Turkey’s Security Challenges, Ali Tuygan 19 Speech Delivered by Ambassador Rafet Akgunay on the Occasion of “The Constructive Powers Partnership Initiative” Dinner, June 2, 2011 20 ANNEX 23 Participant Biographies 23 CIGI G20 RESOURCES 29 ABOUT CIGI 30 CIGI MASTHEAD 31 THE CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL GOVERNANCE INNOVATION WORKSHOP REPORT Fen Hampson, Meliha Altunisik and Paul Heinbecker TAKING STOCK OF NATIONAL SECURITY PERSPECTIVES INTRODUCTION The national presentations revealed significant diversity The Constructive Powers Initiative (CPI) regional among threat perceptions, but also key elements of conflict management workshop was held on June 2–3, commonality. The participants identified a spectrum of 2011, in Istanbul, Turkey. The workshop was organized pressing threats that ranged from traditional security by The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs challenges to more contemporary issues affecting the (NPSIA) at Carleton University, Ottawa; The Centre for security interests of both peoples and states. These include International Governance Innovation (CIGI) in Waterloo, shifting balances of power towards the Asia-Pacific Canada; and the Middle East Technical University region, the ongoing threat posed by North Korea, failed (METU) in Ankara, Turkey. Participants included states, transnational crime (including narcotics trafficking) government officials and diplomats from Canada, Brazil, terrorism and cybersecurity, piracy and freedom of the Switzerland and Turkey, and academics from Australia, seas, and non-traditional threats such as environmental Canada, Mexico, Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, degradation, natural disasters, nuclear safety, infectious South Africa, Switzerland and Turkey. Participants and pandemic diseases, and unpredictable migrant were recruited and invited after consultation with their flows. The individual national policy perspective papers respective embassies and high commissions in Ottawa. following this report contain a more detailed assessment Participant bios are included in the Annex. of each country’s security challenges. The CPI was launched on the premise that the existing post– Despite the heterogeneity of perspectives, narcotics World War II global governance architecture (exemplified trafficking and its security implications garnered by the United Nations Security Council [UNSC] and significant attention in the initial discussions. While its permanent membership) has not kept pace with the the global drug trade does not affect all of the countries changing global order. The world has moved from a bipolar at the table equally, it cuts across regional boundaries to a multipolar order more quickly than anticipated, and the and has clear global dimensions as growing numbers extant global governance architecture is struggling to grapple of countries are used as transit routes, and producers with new security challenges. The workshop’s conveners increasingly target transit route states as potential argued that there is a clear need for increased policy markets. Participants generally agreed that the current coordination and cooperation among “constructive powers” supply-side approach to controlling the drug trade on security issues of mutual interest. Universal frameworks (using armed forces or police to dismantle trafficking need to be accompanied by “minilateral” efforts for optimal networks) is ineffective. Current strategies exacerbate effectiveness. Constructive powers are defined as influential, drug-related violence and encourage traffickers to find economically significant, non-nuclear-armed states with a new transit routes, thereby globalizing a previously proven track record of proactive and innovative diplomacy regional phenomenon. West Africa’s emergence as at the regional and global levels. The goal of the workshop a transit route for the Western European market has was to solicit views from the invitees as to what are the most raised the spectre of Africa — with its relatively weak pressing security challenges facing their states, and ascertain government institutions and inadequate policing the desirability and viability of increased policy coordination capacity — becoming a “narco-continent.” on those security challenges. Cooperation would thus be issue based. The need for coordinated demand and supply management in North America is also evident: the United In order to identify common security threats and areas States is the key market for small arms and financing for for coordination, the workshop took stock of each state’s Mexican cartels, while Mexico is the principal conduit most pressing security challenges and explored the for narcotics entering that market. Furthermore, Canada relationship between the Group of Twenty (G20) and is also becoming a market for South American narcotics, constructive powers. Participants then took advantage and is a supplier of illegal substances to the US market. of the locale to discuss Turkey’s foreign policy in the Afghanistan — the world’s largest opiate producer Middle East and North Africa. The workshop concluded — is another case in point, and trafficking networks by identifying common security challenges and interests have spread throughout Turkey, Iran and Central Asia, among the constructive powers, and identified several delivering heroin to markets in Western Europe, Russia options for moving the initiative forward in a way that and points beyond. The Afghanistan case not only engages policy makers in participating states. underlines the global nature of the illicit drug industry, 6 www.cigionline.org CONSTRUCTIVE POWERS INITIATIVE: MANAGING REGIONAL AND GLOBAL SECURITY but also the complexity of the challenge and the need for G20’s focus is inexorably expanding beyond narrow coordinated multilateral and minilateral policy efforts. economic and financial matters as demonstrated in the broader agendas of the Seoul and Cannes summits. Several other security issues were of general concern. Second, many thought that the G20 must address These included nuclear proliferation and strengthening ongoing concerns about its legitimacy (or lack thereof). civilian nuclear safety standards (particularly in the wake Third, most participants concluded that the constructive of Fukushima); cybersecurity; managing migrant flows powers were more likely to find common ground on triggered by warfare or ecological or economic disasters; broadening the G20 agenda than on UNSC reform, given and the need to consolidate democracy in countries that the competing views of some on the Security Council are transitioning away from authoritarian rule and are at permanent membership, although the group could serve risk of reverting to their undemocratic past via pseudo- as a forum for fostering consensus on the latter. legal means such as the manipulation of constitutions and elections. This last issue — consolidating democracy — The workshop identified some of the G20’s administrative had several dimensions. These include how to reconcile deficiencies. The lack of a permanent secretariat prevents principles such as non-intervention in states’ internal continuity and accountability from one meeting to the affairs with concerns about states’ human rights records, next, and promotes freelancing by the summit host. and the differential implications of failed and successful Other limitations include the brevity of the meetings democratic transitions for international peace and security. (approximately one day), which leaves inadequate time for proper discussion; the imperatives of translation; and In sum, the states at the table were concerned with a diverse the presence of too many voices (beyond
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