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Violence!And!Party! ! UNIVERSITY!OF!CALIFORNIA,! IRVINE! ! ! ! Violence!and!Party!Preferences:!Increased!Consistency!Under!Threat! DISSERTATION! ! ! submitted!in!partial!satisfaction!of!the!requirements! for!the!degree!of! ! ! DOCTOR!OF!PHILOSOPHY! ! in!Political!Science! ! ! by! ! ! Keith!Edward!Jarrett! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ! ! !!!!!!!!!Dissertation!Committee:! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Professor!Anthony!McGann,!Chair! !Professor!Marek!Kaminski!CoNChair! !Professor!Patrick!Morgan! ! ! ! ! ! 2015! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ©!2015!Keith!Edward!Jarrett! ! TABLE&OF&CONTENTS& & !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Page! ! LIST!OF!FIGURES! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!iii! ! LIST!OF!TABLES! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!vii! ! ACKNOWLEDGMENTS! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!ix! ! CURRICULUM!VITAE! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!x! ! ABSTRACT!OF!THE!DISSERTATION! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!xi! ! CHAPTER!1:!!Introduction!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1! ! CHAPTER!2:!!Literature!Review! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!9!! !! ! CHAPTER!3:!!Methods!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!28! ! ! CHAPTER!4:!!Palestinian!case!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!36! ! CHAPTER!5:!!Israeli!case!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!88! ! CHAPTER!6:!!Conclusion!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!121! ! BIBLIOGRAPHY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!134! ! APPENDIX!A:!List!of!Israeli!Polls! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!139! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ii! ! ! ! LIST&OF&FIGURES& ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Page! ! Figure!4.1! Palestinian!party!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality!count,!! June!2001!through!August!2002! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!42! ! Figure!4.2! PPP,!PFLP,!&!Islamic!Jihad!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality! !count,!June!2001!through!August!2002.! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!43! ! Figure!4.3! Palestinian!party!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality!count,!! March!2003!through!March!2004! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!44! ! Figure!4.4! PPP,!PFLP,!&!Islamic!Jihad!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality!! count,!March!2003!through!March!2004! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!45! ! Figure!4.5! Palestinian)Parties)support)by)daily)Palestinian)fatality)count,) )December)2007)through)August)2008.)Includes)Operation)Hot)Winter!!47! ! Figure!4.6! PPP,!PFLP,!&!Islamic!Jihad!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality! !count,!December!2007!through!August!2008.!Includes!Operation!! Hot!Winter.!! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!48! ! Figure!4.7! Palestinian!party!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality!count,!! November!2008!through!August!2009.!Includes!Operation!Cast!! Lead.! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!50! ! Figure!4.8! PPP,!PFLP,!&!Islamic!Jihad!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality! count,!November!2008!through!August!2009.!Includes!Operation! Cast!Lead.! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!51! ! Figure!4.9! Palestinian!party!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality!count,!! September!2012!through!June!2013.!Includes!Operation!Pillar!of!! Defense.! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!53! ! Figure!4.10! PPP,!PFLP,!&!Islamic!Jihad!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality!! count,!September!2012!through!June!2013.!!Includes!Operation!! Pillar!of!Defense.))! ! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!54! ! Figure!4.11! Palestinian!party!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality!count,!! May!2014!through!April!2015.!Includes!Operation!Protective!! Edge! ! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!56! iii! ! ! ! Figure!4.12! PPP,!PFLP,!&!Islamic!Jihad!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality!! count,!May!2014!through!April!2015.!Includes!Operation!! Protective!Edge.! ! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!57!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!4.13! Variance!of!Two!Blocks!of!Parties!Compared!to!Discounted!Sum!of!! Fatalities!Over!Previous!40!Days! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!60!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!4.14! Percentage!of!Palestinians!who!Support!or!Trust!Hamas!or!Islamic! !Jihad!Compared!to!the!Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!Over!Previous! !40!Days! ! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!62!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!4.15! Percentage!of!Palestinians!who!Support!or!Trust!Fatah!or!a!! Nationalist!Party!Compared!to!the!Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!! Over!Previous!40!Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!63!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!4.16! Percentage!of!Palestinians!who!Support!or!Trust!Fatah!Compared! !to!the!Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!Over!Previous!40!Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!66!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!4.17! Percentage!of!Palestinians!who!Support!or!Trust!Hamas!Compared! !to!the!Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!Over!Previous!40!Days))))))))))))))))))))))))67!!!!!!!!!!!) !! Figure!4.18! Percentage!of!Palestinians!who!Support!or!Trust!Independent! !! ! Islamists!Compared!to!the!Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!Over!! Previous!40!Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!69!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!4.19! Percentage!of!Palestinians!who!Support!or!Trust!Independent!! Nationalists!Compared!to!the!Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!Over!! Previous!40!Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!70!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!4.20! Percentage!of!Palestinians!who!Support!or!Trust!Islamic!Jihad!! Compared!to!the!Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!Over!Previous!40!! Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!71!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!4.21! Percentage!of!Palestinians!who!Support!or!Trust!None!of!the!! Above!(NOTA)!Compared!to!the!Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!! Over!Previous!40!Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!73!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!4.22! The!number!of!poll!questions!each!political!party!is!correlated! !with!by!the!party’s!correlation!coefficient!with!the!discounted!! sum!of!fatalities!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!77!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!4.23! The!number!of!parties!each!poll!question!is!significantly!! correlated!with!by!correlation!coefficient!with!sum!of!fatalities!! over!previous!40!days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!81!!!!!!!!!!!! iv! ! ! Figure!5.1! Variance!of!Four!Blocks!of!Parties!Compared!to!Discounted!! Sum!of!Fatalities!Over!Previous!30!Days))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))90!!!!!!!!!!!) ! Figure!5.2! Variance!of!Four!Blocks!of!Parties!Compared!to!Discounted!Sum! of!Rockets!and!Mortars!Over!Previous!40!Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!92!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!5.3! Expected!Number!of!Seats!for!CenterNLeftNArab!Parties!Compared!! to!Discounted!Sum!of!Rockets!and!Mortars!Over!Previous!40!Days!!!!!!93!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!5.4! Expected!Number!of!Seats!for!HardNLine/Religious!Parties!! Compared!to!Discounted!Sum!of!Rockets!and!Mortars!Over!! Previous!40!Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!94!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!5.5! Annual!Sum!of!Israeli!Fatalities!and!Annual!Sum!of!Rockets!and!! Mortars!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!99!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!5.6! Expected!Number!of!Seats!for!HardNLineNReligious!Parties!! Compared!to!a!Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!Over!the!Previous!30!! Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!101!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!5.7! Expected!Number!of!Seats!for!CenterNLeftNArab!Parties!Compared! !to!a!Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!Over!the!Previous!30!Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!102!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!5.8! Expected!Number!of!Seats!for!the!Labor!Party!Compared!to!a!! Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!Over!the!Previous!30!Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!104!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!5.9! Expected!Number!of!Seats!for!the!Labor!Party!Compared!to!a!! Discounted!Sum!of!Rockets!and!Mortars!Over!the!Previous!40!! Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!106!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!5.10! Variance!of!Polls!for!the!Expected!Number!of!Seats!for!Labor!! Compared!to!the!Discounted!Sum!of!Rockets!and!Mortar!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!108!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!5.11! Support!for!Several!Parties!in!Response!to!November!2012!! Escalation!of!Rocket!and!Mortar!Fire!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!109!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!5.12! Support)for)Labor)Relative)to)Rocket)Fire)During)2006)Second)) Lebanon)War!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111!!!!!!!!!!!) ! Figure!5.13! Support!for!Likud,!Yisrael!Beitenu,!Meretz,!and!Kadima!Relative!! to!Rocket!Fire!During!2006!Second!Lebanon!War!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!112!!!!!!!!!!!) ! Figure!5.14! Variance!of!Five!Substantive!Poll!Questions!Compared!to!! Discounted!Sum!of!Rockets!and!Mortars!Over!Previous!40!Days)))))))))))114!!!!!!!!!!!)
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