! UNIVERSITY!OF!CALIFORNIA,! IRVINE! ! ! ! Violence!and!Party!Preferences:!Increased!Consistency!Under!Threat! DISSERTATION! ! ! submitted!in!partial!satisfaction!of!the!requirements! for!the!degree!of! ! ! DOCTOR!OF!PHILOSOPHY! ! in!Political!Science! ! ! by! ! ! Keith!Edward!Jarrett! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ! ! !!!!!!!!!Dissertation!Committee:! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Professor!Anthony!Mcgann,!Chair! !Professor!Marek!Kaminski!CoNChair! !Professor!Patrick!Morgan! ! ! ! ! ! 2015! ! !

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TABLE&OF&CONTENTS& & !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Page! ! LIST!OF!FIGURES! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!iii! ! LIST!OF!TABLES! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!vii! ! ACKNOWLEDGMENTS! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!ix! ! CURRICULUM!VITAE! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!x! ! ABSTRACT!OF!THE!DISSERTATION! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!xi! ! CHAPTER!1:!!Introduction!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1! ! CHAPTER!2:!!Literature!Review! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!9!! !! ! CHAPTER!3:!!Methods!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!28! ! ! CHAPTER!4:!!Palestinian!case!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!36! ! CHAPTER!5:!!Israeli!case!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!88! ! CHAPTER!6:!!Conclusion!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!121! ! BIBLIOGRAPHY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!134! ! APPENDIX!A:!List!of!Israeli!Polls! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!139! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

ii! ! ! ! LIST&OF&FIGURES&

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Page! ! Figure!4.1! Palestinian!party!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality!count,!! June!2001!through!August!2002! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!42! ! Figure!4.2! PPP,!PFLP,!&!Islamic!Jihad!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality! !count,!June!2001!through!August!2002.! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!43! ! Figure!4.3! Palestinian!party!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality!count,!! March!2003!through!March!2004! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!44! ! Figure!4.4! PPP,!PFLP,!&!Islamic!Jihad!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality!! count,!March!2003!through!March!2004! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!45! ! Figure!4.5! Palestinian)Parties)support)by)daily)Palestinian)fatality)count,) )December)2007)through)August)2008.)Includes)Operation)Hot)Winter!!47! ! Figure!4.6! PPP,!PFLP,!&!Islamic!Jihad!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality! !count,!December!2007!through!August!2008.!Includes!Operation!! Hot!Winter.!! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!48! ! Figure!4.7! Palestinian!party!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality!count,!! November!2008!through!August!2009.!Includes!Operation!Cast!! Lead.! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!50! ! Figure!4.8! PPP,!PFLP,!&!Islamic!Jihad!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality! count,!November!2008!through!August!2009.!Includes!Operation! Cast!Lead.! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!51! ! Figure!4.9! Palestinian!party!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality!count,!! September!2012!through!June!2013.!Includes!Operation!Pillar!of!! Defense.! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!53! ! Figure!4.10! PPP,!PFLP,!&!Islamic!Jihad!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality!! count,!September!2012!through!June!2013.!!Includes!Operation!! Pillar!of!Defense.))! ! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!54! ! Figure!4.11! Palestinian!party!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality!count,!! May!2014!through!April!2015.!Includes!Operation!Protective!! Edge! ! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!56!

iii! ! ! ! Figure!4.12! PPP,!PFLP,!&!Islamic!Jihad!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality!! count,!May!2014!through!April!2015.!Includes!Operation!! Protective!Edge.! ! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!57!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!4.13! Variance!of!Two!Blocks!of!Parties!Compared!to!Discounted!Sum!of!! Fatalities!Over!Previous!40!Days! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!60!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!4.14! Percentage!of!Palestinians!who!Support!or!Trust!Hamas!or!Islamic! !Jihad!Compared!to!the!Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!Over!Previous! !40!Days! ! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!62!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!4.15! Percentage!of!Palestinians!who!Support!or!Trust!Fatah!or!a!! Nationalist!Party!Compared!to!the!Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!! Over!Previous!40!Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!63!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!4.16! Percentage!of!Palestinians!who!Support!or!Trust!Fatah!Compared! !to!the!Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!Over!Previous!40!Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!66!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!4.17! Percentage!of!Palestinians!who!Support!or!Trust!Hamas!Compared! !to!the!Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!Over!Previous!40!Days))))))))))))))))))))))))67!!!!!!!!!!!) !! Figure!4.18! Percentage!of!Palestinians!who!Support!or!Trust!Independent! !! ! Islamists!Compared!to!the!Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!Over!! Previous!40!Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!69!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!4.19! Percentage!of!Palestinians!who!Support!or!Trust!Independent!! Nationalists!Compared!to!the!Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!Over!! Previous!40!Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!70!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!4.20! Percentage!of!Palestinians!who!Support!or!Trust!Islamic!Jihad!! Compared!to!the!Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!Over!Previous!40!! Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!71!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!4.21! Percentage!of!Palestinians!who!Support!or!Trust!None!of!the!! Above!(NOTA)!Compared!to!the!Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!! Over!Previous!40!Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!73!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!4.22! The!number!of!poll!questions!each!political!party!is!correlated! !with!by!the!party’s!correlation!coefficient!with!the!discounted!! sum!of!fatalities!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!77!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!4.23! The!number!of!parties!each!poll!question!is!significantly!! correlated!with!by!correlation!coefficient!with!sum!of!fatalities!! over!previous!40!days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!81!!!!!!!!!!!!

iv! ! ! Figure!5.1! Variance!of!Four!Blocks!of!Parties!Compared!to!Discounted!! Sum!of!Fatalities!Over!Previous!30!Days))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))90!!!!!!!!!!!) ! Figure!5.2! Variance!of!Four!Blocks!of!Parties!Compared!to!Discounted!Sum! of!Rockets!and!Mortars!Over!Previous!40!Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!92!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!5.3! Expected!Number!of!Seats!for!CenterNLeftNArab!Parties!Compared!! to!Discounted!Sum!of!Rockets!and!Mortars!Over!Previous!40!Days!!!!!!93!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!5.4! Expected!Number!of!Seats!for!HardNLine/Religious!Parties!! Compared!to!Discounted!Sum!of!Rockets!and!Mortars!Over!! Previous!40!Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!94!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!5.5! Annual!Sum!of!Israeli!Fatalities!and!Annual!Sum!of!Rockets!and!! Mortars!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!99!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!5.6! Expected!Number!of!Seats!for!HardNLineNReligious!Parties!! Compared!to!a!Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!Over!the!Previous!30!! Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!101!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!5.7! Expected!Number!of!Seats!for!CenterNLeftNArab!Parties!Compared! !to!a!Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!Over!the!Previous!30!Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!102!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!5.8! Expected!Number!of!Seats!for!the!Labor!Party!Compared!to!a!! Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!Over!the!Previous!30!Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!104!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!5.9! Expected!Number!of!Seats!for!the!Labor!Party!Compared!to!a!! Discounted!Sum!of!Rockets!and!Mortars!Over!the!Previous!40!! Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!106!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!5.10! Variance!of!Polls!for!the!Expected!Number!of!Seats!for!Labor!! Compared!to!the!Discounted!Sum!of!Rockets!and!Mortar!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!108!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!5.11! Support!for!Several!Parties!in!Response!to!November!2012!! Escalation!of!Rocket!and!Mortar!Fire!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!109!!!!!!!!!!!! ! Figure!5.12! Support)for)Labor)Relative)to)Rocket)Fire)During)2006)Second)) Lebanon)War!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111!!!!!!!!!!!) ! Figure!5.13! Support!for!Likud,!Yisrael!Beitenu,!Meretz,!and!Kadima!Relative!! to!Rocket!Fire!During!2006!Second!Lebanon!War!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!112!!!!!!!!!!!) ! Figure!5.14! Variance!of!Five!Substantive!Poll!Questions!Compared!to!! Discounted!Sum!of!Rockets!and!Mortars!Over!Previous!40!Days)))))))))))114!!!!!!!!!!!)

v! ! ! Figure!5.15! Most!Important!Value!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!117!!!!!!!!!!!

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vi! ! LIST&OF&TABLES! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!Page! ! Table!3.1! Palestinian!parties,!use!of!violence,!and!opposition!to!the! !peace!process. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!30! ! Table!4.1! Combined!party!support!for!Palestinian!parties!in!Gaza! !and!the!West!Bank!over!range!of!lagged!days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!39! ! Table!4.2! Palestinian!party!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality!count,! !July!2001!through!August!2002! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!43! ! Table!4.3! Palestinian!party!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality!count,!! March!2003!through!March!2004! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!45! ! Table!4.4! Palestinian!party!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality!count,!! December!2007!through!August!2008! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!48! ! Table!4.5! Palestinian!party!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality!count,! December!2007!through!August!2008! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!51! ! Table!4.6! Palestinian!party!support!by!daily!Palestinian!fatality!count,!! September!2012!through!June!2013.! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!54! ! Table!4.7! Variance)and)Average)of)Support)&)Trust)for)Islamic)Parties)and) Fatah)+)Nationalist)Parties)by)Discounted)Sum)of)Fatalities)Over)) Previous)40)Days))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))57! ! Table!4.8! Variance!and!Average!of!Support!&!Trust!for!Islamic!Parties!and!! Fatah!+!Nationalist!Parties!by!Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!Over!! Previous!40!Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!63! ! Table!4.9! Variance)and)Average)of)Support)&)Trust)for)Hamas))and)Fatah)by)) Discounted)Sum)of)Fatalities)Over)Previous)40)Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!68! ! Table!4.10! Variance!and!Average!of!Support!&!Trust!for!Independent!! Islamists,!Independent!Nationalists!!and!Islamic!Jihad!by!! Discounted!Sum!of!Fatalities!Over!Previous!40!Days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!71) ! Table!4.11! Variance)and)Average)of)Support)&)Trust)for)None)of)the)Above)by)) Discounted)Sum)of)Fatalities)Over)Previous)40)Days))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))73) ! Table!4.12! List!of!poll!questions!regarding!the!peace!process,!threat,!and!! governance!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!82!

vii! ! ! Table!4.13! Parties!compared!to!the!poll!questions!they!are!significantly!! associated!with!at!the!.05!level!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!85! ! Table!5.1! Variance!and!Average!of!Expected!#!of!Seats!for!CenterNLeftNArab!! and!HardNLineNReligious!Parties!at!Increased!Values!of!Rocket!and!! Mortar!Attacks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!96! ! Table!5.2! Variance!of!CenterNLeftNArab!and!HardNLineNReligious!Parties!at!! Increased!Values!of!Fatalities!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!102! ! Table!5.3! Variance!and!Average!of!Polls!at!Increased!Levels!of!Fatalities!!!!!!!!!!!!!!104! ! Table!5.4! Variance!of!Polls!for!the!Expected!Number!of!Seats!for!Labor!! Compared!to!the!Discounted!Sum!of!Rockets!and!Mortar!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!106! ! Table!5.5! Most!Important!Value!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!118!

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS! ! I!would!like!to!express!great!appreciation!to!my!committee!chair,!Professor!Anthony! McGann,!whose!critiques!and!suggestions!were!invaluable.!!Conversations!with!him!about! my!project!helped!me!to!maintain!the!enthusiasm!necessary!to!carry!my!research!through! to!completion.!!Professor!McGann!is!an!exceptional!human!being;!I!can’t!thank!him!enough.! ! I!would!like!to!thank!my!committee!members,!Professor!Marek!Kaminski!and!Professor! Patrick!Morgan,!who!provided!excellent!feedback!and!who!went!above!and!beyond!what! was!asked!of!them.!!I!was!very!fortunate!to!have!worked!with!such!a!knowledgeable!and! helpful!committee.! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

ix! ! CURRICULUM&VITAE&

& Keith&Edward&Jarrett& ! 2005! ! B.A.!in!Comparative!Culture,!University!of!Washington,!Seattle! ! ! ! 2006N2012! Teaching!Assistant,!School!of!Social!Sciences,!University!of!California,!Irvine! ! ! 2011! ! M.A.!in!Political!Science,!University!of!California,!Irvine! 2015! ! Ph.D.!in!Political!Science! University!of!California,!Irvine! ! ! ! FIELD!OF!STUDY! ! Public!opinion,!political!party!preferences!under!violent!conditions! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

x! ! ABSTRACT&OF&THE&DISSERTATION!

! Violence!and!Party!Preferences:!Increased!Consistency!Under!Threat! ! By! ! Keith!Edward!Jarrett! ! Doctor!of!Philosophy!in!Political!Science! ! !University!of!California,!Irvine,!2015! ! Professor!Anthony!McGann!Chair! ! ! ! How!do!political!party!preferences!change!when!voters!are!under!threat!of! violence?!!When!fatalities!from!terrorist!attacks,!civil!war,!and!ethnic!conflict!reach! unacceptable!levels,!do!voters!prefer!parties!with!a!hardline!foreign!policy!that!will! respond!with!force!or!dovish!parties!who!will!make!concessions!and!negotiate!an!end!to! the!violence?!!Using!data!from!the!Israeli!electorate!and!the!Palestinian!electorate!I!attempt! to!falsify!the!hypothesis!that!voters!run!toward!hardline!parties!under!conditions!of! violence.!!I!also!find!some!evidence!to!suggest!that!voter!preferences!become!more! consistent!at!higher!levels!of!violence.!!I!use!regression!analysis!and!graphs!to!explore!

Palestinian!public!opinion!data!collected!by!the!Palestinian!Center!for!Policy!and!Survey!

Analysis!and!Israeli!public!opinion!data!collected!by!a!number!of!polling!companies.!I! compare!changes!in!party!preferences!to!changes!in!levels!of!violence,!using!Palestinian! and!Israeli!fatality!data!from!B’tselem,!and!counts!of!rocket!and!mortar!launchings!from!the!

Meir!Amit!Intelligence!and!Terrorism!Center.!

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xi! ! ! INTRODUCTION) ! How!do!political!party!preferences!change!when!voters!are!under!threat!of! violence?!!When!fatalities!from!terrorist!attacks,!civil!war,!and!ethnic!conflict!reach! unacceptable!levels,!do!voters!prefer!hardline,!hawkish!parties!that!will!respond!with!force! or!dovish!parties!who!will!make!concessions!and!negotiate!an!end!to!the!violence?!!These! questions!are!of!particular!importance!for!emerging!democracies!that!hope!to!use!elections! as!a!way!out!of!a!protracted!conflict.!!But,!elections!in!the!Middle!East!since!the!Arab!Spring! have!brought!what!many!view!to!be!undesirable!outcomes.!!In!addition,!if!established! democracies!that!have!been!locked!into!cycles!of!violence!respond!by!increasing!support! for!hardline!parties,!this!may!reduce!diplomatic!options.!!

Having!a!better!understanding!of!the!timing!involved!with!using!both!military! responses!and!diplomatic!negotiations!is!important!for!recognizing!windows!of! opportunity!for!peace!negotiations.!!Contributing!to!ripeness!literature,!Zartman!(2003)! suggests!that!groups!stuck!in!a!protracted!conflict!will!be!more!open!to!negotiating!when! they!come!to!see!the!conflict!as!a!mutually!hurting!stalemate.1!!Some!of!the!factors!that! contribute!to!this!are!a!conviction!that!continuing!to!use!violence!will!not!achieve!their! political!goals.!!A!sense!of!crisis!and!a!view!that!there!is!a!viable!solution!that!can!be! negotiated!may!lead!to!the!perception!that!the!conflict!is!ripe!for!a!solution.2!However,!

Zartman!makes!the!point!that!ripeness!and!a!mutually!hurting!stalemate!are!subjective,!so! it!is!important!to!consider!how!both!actors!perceive!and!interpret!their!environment.!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1 I. William Zartman, “Ripeness: The Hurting Stalemate and Beyond,” in International Conflict Resolution after the 2 Ibid.

! 1! In!the!Israeli!Palestinian!case!a!sense!of!demographic!crisis!exists!on!the!Israeli!side! in!that!if!they!do!not!negotiate!a!twoQstate!solution!soon,!then!they!will!not!have!a!Jewish! majority!in!the!future,!which!will!force!them!to!choose!between!being!a!democratic!state!or! a!state!defined!by!Jewish!identity.3!!In!the!chapter!on!Israel,!I!show!that!after!periods!of! high!Israeli!fatalities!or!high!levels!of!rocket!and!mortar!attacks,!democracy!becomes!a!less! important!value!relative!to!Israeli!defined!as!a!Jewish!state.!!!

In!addition,!for!both!the!Israeli!and!Palestinian!negotiators,!the!ripeness!criterion!of! a!way!out!of!a!conflict!is!dependent!on!having!confidence!in!the!respective!negotiating! partners.!!This!confidence!is!affected!by!the!ability!to!guarantee!that!all!groups!in!your! political!system!will!honor!the!commitments.!!The!relative!strength!between!hawkish!and! dovish!parties!on!both!the!Israeli!and!Palestinian!sides!of!the!conflict!affects!this! confidence.!!This!relative!strength!between!the!two!camps!in!turn!rests!on!constituent! attitudes!that!are!affected!by!the!violence.!!These!issues!of!vote!share!and!voter!attitudes!in! response!to!violence!are!explored!in!the!subsequent!chapters.!

I!use!data!from!the!Israeli!and!Palestinian!cases!to!attempt!to!falsify!the!hypothesis! that!when!a!population!is!subjected!to!violence!from!an!external!actor,!that!this!leads!to!a! large!shift!in!support!for!hawkish!and!militant!parties.!!In!addition,!I!discuss!findings!that! suggest!that!support!for!parties!becomes!more!consistent!as!the!amount!of!violence! increases,!often!focusing!to!a!level!closer!to!the!median!amount!of!support.!!!

The!Palestinian!case!in!particular!has!a!high!profile!for!US!policy!makers!because! the!US!has!an!ongoing!role!in!the!peace!process.!!At!the!time!the!Bush!administration!was! promoting!democracy!in!the!region,!the!2006!Palestinian!elections!ended!in!an!electoral! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 3 Monica Duffy Toft, “Demography and National Security: The Politics of Population Shifts in Contemporary Israel,” International Area Studies Review 15, no. 1 (March 2012): 21–42.

! 2! victory!for!Hamas,!which!has!since!been!regarded!as!a!step!backwards!in!terms!of!the! peace!process.!!These!were!the!first!elections!held!after!Yassir!Arafat’s!death,!and!so!were! considered!to!be!an!important!step!toward!a!more!democratic!Palestinian!government.!

While!Hamas’s!win!in!that!election!has!largely!been!attributed!to!Palestinian!voters’! dissatisfaction!with!the!corruption!of!the!FatahQled!government,!the!effects!of!each!violent! confrontation!between!the!Israeli!Defense!Forces!and!the!HamasQled!government!in!Gaza! are!scrutinized!for!how!they!affect!the!relative!share!of!public!support!between!Fatah,! which!supports!the!peace!process,!and!Hamas,!which!for!the!most!part!opposes!it.!!Each! major!conflict!between!Israelis!and!Palestinians!is!followed!by!editorials!about!Fatah’s! political!defeat!and!delegitimization.!!However,!Fatah!keeps!returning!to!a!prominent! position!over!Hamas.!!What!are!the!dynamics!that!drive!this!process?!

The!effects!of!violent!confrontations!on!the!Palestinian!vote!share!create!a!difficult! tradeQoff!for!the!Israeli!government.!!Israel!must!choose!whether!the!shortQterm!interest!of! creating!deterrence!and!degrading!Hamas’s!military!capability!is!worth!weakening!the!

Palestinian!parties!committed!to!the!peace!process.!!In!the!most!recent!crisis!that!occurred! between!July!17!and!August!26,!2015!wherein!more!than!2100!Palestinians4!and!71!Israelis! were!killed5,!the!percentage!of!Palestinians!who!responded!that!they!support!Hamas! increased!from!20.6%!in!the!last!poll!before!the!conflict,6!to!35.4%!in!a!poll!taken!the!first!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 4 Maria Al-Aqra, “MOH Emergency Operation Room” (Ramallah: State of Palestine Ministry of Health, n.d.), http://www.moh.ps/?lang=1. 5 Jodi Rudoren, “50 Days of War Leave Israelis and Palestinians Only More Entrenched,” New York Times, August 29, 2014. 6 Khalil Shikaki and Walid Ladadweh, “Poll Number (52)” (Ramallah, Palestine: Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, June 5, 2014), pcpsr.org. This is the combined level of support for both Gaza and the West Bank

! 3! day!of!the!cease!fire.7!!Fatah’s!support!dropped!from!31.7%!before!the!conflict!to!24.6%!in! the!same!polls.!!However,!the!increase!in!support!for!Hamas!was!temporary,!and!dropped! back!down!to!23.8%!in!a!poll!taken!13!weeks!later.8!!Is!this!shortQterm!boost!a!common! phenomenon,!or!is!this!an!exception?!!If!the!increase!in!support!for!hardline!parties!is! generally!shortQterm,!then!in!what!ways!is!it!important?!

It!is!similarly!difficult!for!Israel!to!make!concessions!in!the!wake!of!a!major! confrontation.!!Comparing!the!last!poll!taken!by!PCPSR!in!June!2014,9!before!Operation*

Protective*Edge,!to!the!first!PCPSR!poll!taken!after!the!conflict!in!December!2014,10!the! percentage!of!all!Israelis!who!either!agreed!or!definitely!agreed!that!Israel!should! dismantle!most!of!the!settlements!dropped!from!32%!to!28%.!!The!hardline!block!of! parties!received!an!increase!in!support!as!a!result!of!the!conflict.!!In!polls!done!for! television!and!newspapers!asking!which!party!respondents!support,!the!hardline!block!was! expected!to!receive!69!seats!in!a!poll!released!July!9th,11!the!last!poll!taken!before!the! kidnapping!of!three!Israeli!teenagers!(which!contributed!to!the!events!that!led!to!Operation*

Protective*Edge.)!!The!hardline!block’s!support!received!a!boost!in!the!expected!number!of! seats!ranging!in!the!midQtoQlow!70!expected!seats!but!reached!as!high!as!84!seats!on!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 7 Khalil Shikaki and Walid Ladadweh, “Special Gaza War Poll” (Ramallah, Palestine: Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, August 26, 2014), pcpsr.org. This is the combined level of support for both Gaza and the West Bank 8 Khalil Shikaki and Walid Ladadweh, “Poll Number (54)” (Ramallah, Palestine, December 3, 2014), pcpsr.org. 9 Ifat Maoz, “Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll, June 2014” (Jerusalem: The Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace, June 8, 2014), http://truman.huji.ac.il/. 10 Ifat Maoz, “Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll, December 2014” (Jerusalem: Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace, December 7, 2014), http://truman.huji.ac.il/. 11 Jeremy Saltan, “Dialog Haaretz Poll,” Jeremy’s Knesset Insider, (July 9, 2014), http://knessetjeremy.com/category/knesset/polls/.

! 4! August!29th!12!and!on!November!18th.13!!However,!much!like!Hamas’s!boost,!this!only!lasted! until!late!December.14!!

Jaeger!and!Paserman!(2006)!argue!that!the!Israelis!and!Palestinians!are!not!locked! into!an!endless!cycle!of!violent!retaliations.!!The!Israelis!only!respond!consistently!to! attacks!that!are!initiated!by!Fatah’s!militant!wing,!as!opposed!to!attacks!from!other!militant! groups.!!In!addition,!the!Palestinian!attacks!against!the!Israelis!do!not!regularly!follow!

Israeli!attacks.15!!What!then!are!the!political!consequences!on!both!sides!of!being!subjected! to!violence,!how!large!is!the!effect,!and!how!long!does!it!last?!!How!does!this!violence!affect! the!peace!process?!Kydd!and!Walter!(2002)!show!that!extremist!groups!time!their!use!of! violence!to!disrupt!peace!processes.16!!Mia!Bloom!(2004)!makes!the!case!that!these! extremist!groups!are!also!responsive!to!public!opinion:!as!the!Palestinian!public!increased! its!support!for!terrorist!violence,!Hamas!and!other!groups!increased!their!use!of!terrorist! violence.17!!In!the!IsraeliQPalestinian!case,!Khalil!Shikaki!(2006)!makes!the!claim!that! changes!in!Palestinian!public!opinion!either!came!before!or!occurred!along!with!all!of!the! key!turning!points!in!Palestinian!politics.18!

The!IsraeliQPalestinian!case!is!useful!for!testing!these!questions!because!there!is!a! significant!amount!of!variance!on!the!independent!variable,!the!level!of!violence.!!There!are!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 12 Jeremy Saltan, “Geocartography for Jerusalem Post & Maariv,” Jeremy’s Knesset Insider, August 29, 2015, knessetjeremy.com. 13 Jeremy Saltan, “Geocartography for Walla,” Jeremy’s Knesset Insider, November 18, 2014, knessetjeremy.com. 14 Jeremy Saltan, “Polls,” Jeremy’s Knesset Insider, n.d., http://knessetjeremy.com/category/knesset/polls/. 15 David A. Jaeger and M. Daniele Paserman, “Israel, the Palestinian Factions and the Cycle of Violence,” Labour Economics and Public Policy, Discussion Paper Series, no. 5498 (February 2006): 7. 16 Andrew Kydd and Barbara F. Walter, "Sabotaging the Peace: The Politics of Extremist Violence " International Organization 56, no. 2 (2002): 263. 17 Mia M . Bloom, "Palestinian Suicide Bombing: Public Support, Market Share, and Outbidding " Political Science Quarterly 119, no. 1 (2004): 66, 72. 18 Khalil Shikaki, "Willing to Compromise: Palestinian Public Opinion and the Peace Process," United States Institute of Peace, no. Special Report (2006): 1, 12.

! 5! long!periods!of!quiet!from!which!to!draw!a!baseline!of!comparison,!particularly!from!2009! until!the!end!of!2012!and!from!early!2013!until!July!of!2014.!!Most!of!the!period!from!

September!2000!until!the!end!of!2008!was!characterized!by!mediumQintensity,!chronic! violence,!punctuated!by!major!flareQups.!!From!September!of!2000!to!February!2005!the!

Second!Intifada!uprising!resulted!in!the!highest!level!of!Israeli!fatalities!within!the!period!of! this!study.!!Finally!there!have!been!three!wars!since!the!Israeli!withdrawal!from!Gaza!in! which!the!IDF!has!conducted!major!operations!in!Gaza.!!These!have!resulted!in!high!

Palestinian!casualties!and!heavy!rocket!launchings!into!Israeli.!!On!December!27,!2008,!

Israel!invaded!Gaza!in!what!was!called!Operation*Cast*Lead.!!After!three!weeks,!1391!

Palestinians!were!killed!in!Gaza.!Nine!Israelis!were!killed,19!and!“571!rockets!and!205! mortar!shells!landed!in!Israeli!territory.”20!!The!next!war!was!Operation*Pillar*of*Defense!in!

2012!which!lasted!from!November!14th!to!the!21st.!Approximately!169!Palestinians!and!6!

Israelis!were!killed,21!and!“more!than!1400!rockets!were!fired!from!the!Gaza!Strip.”22!The!

IDF,!on!its!official!blog,!similarly!claims!to!have!struck!1500!Palestinian!sites.23!!!B’tselem,!a! wellQrespected!human!rights!organization!that!investigates!each!fatality!and!whose!data!is! frequently!used!by!researchers,!has!not!yet!completed!its!investigation!of!the!fatalities!for! the!most!recent!conflict,!Operation*Protective*Edge,!which!lasted!from!July!8!to!August!26,!

2014,!but!the!Gaza!Ministry!of!Health!estimates!2100!Palestinians!were!killed,!while!71!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 19 “Fatalities during Operation Cast Lead” (Jerusalem: B’Tselem, January 18, 2009), http://www.btselem.org/statistics/fatalities/during-cast-lead/by-date-of-event. 20 “Operation Cast Lead-Update No. 18” (Gelilot, Israel: Israel Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center (IICC), January 20, 2008), http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/article/18332. 21 “Statistics | B’Tselem,” B’Tselem, n.d., http://www.btselem.org/statistics. 22 “Operation Pillar of Defense -Update No. 9,” News of Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (Gelilot, Israel: Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Center, November 27, 2012), http://www.terrorism- info.org.il/Data/articles/Art_20434/E_241_12_1854976760.pdf. 23 “Operation Pillar of Defense: Summary of Events,” IDF Blog, November 22, 2012, https://www.idfblog.com/blog/2012/11/22/operation-pillar-of-defense-summary-of-events/.

! 6! Israelis!were!killed.24!In!addition!to!the!mortars,!3852!rockets!reached!Israel.25,26!Finally,!I! include!the!data!from!the!Israel8Hezbollah*War,!which!lasted!from!July!12!–!August!14,!

2006,!in!which!more!than!4000!rockets!were!fired!into!Israel!from!Lebanon!and!160!

Israelis!were!killed27!while!about!1200!Lebanese!were!killed.28!

In!Chapter!2,!I!review!the!literature!that!is!relevant!to!violence!and!party! preferences.!!There!is!some!work!that!is!more!directly!related!to!this!project,!that!looks!at! whether!hardline!parties!get!a!clear!benefit!from!violent!conflict!and!how!long!that!benefit! lasts.!!A!lot!of!the!Terrorism!literature!looks!at!how!different!emotional!responses!are! associated!with!different!policy!preferences.!!Underlying!some!of!the!emotions!and!threat! literature!are!some!assumptions!about!cognitive!versus!affective!information!processing! that!are!relevant!to!the!Israeli!chapter.!!!A!useful!way!to!tie!the!threat!and!emotion! literature!to!groups!of!voters!is!to!look!at!the!Terror!Management!Theory!literature!and! threat!and!identity!literature,!which!show!how!ideology!can!lead!people!to!different! interpretations!and!responses!to!the!same!events.!!In!Chapter!3,!I!discuss!the!data!sources! and!the!methods!used!for!both!the!Israeli!and!Palestinian!chapters.!

In!Chapter!4,!I!use!public!opinion!and!fatality!data!to!show!that!the!variance!of! support!for!both!blocks!of!parties!in!the!Palestinian!territories!decreases!as!the!amount!of! violence!increases.!!I!compare!the!dovish!and!hardline!blocks!of!parties!and!I!distinguish!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 24 Rudoren, “50 Days of War Leave Israelis and Palestinians Only More Entrenched.” 25 “Operation Protective Edge Update,” News of Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (Gelilot, Israel: The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, September 2, 2014), http://www.terrorism- info.org.il/Data/articles/Art_20709/E_154_14_403606512.pdf. 26 The data on Operation Protective Edge has not yet been included in this analysis. 27 “FAQ: The Second Lebanon War-One Year Later” (Jerusalem, Israel: Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs, July 12, 2007), mfa.gov.il. 28 Avi Kober, “The Israel Defense Forces in the Second Lebanon War: Why the Poor Performance?,” Journal of Strategic Studies 31, no. 1 (February 1, 2008): 13, doi:10.1080/01402390701785211.

! 7! between!parties!like!Fatah!and!Hamas!that!follow!this!trend!from!parties!like!Islamic!Jihad,! which!do!not.!!I!then!use!substantive!questions!to!explore!why!this!is!the!case,!with!the! conclusion!that!larger!parties!are!constrained!by!competing!expectations!from!some!voters! who!want!a!diplomatic!solution!and!other!voters!who!want!a!demonstration!of!national! strength!and!retaliation.!!

! In!Chapter!5,!I!explore!fatality!data!as!well!as!a!count!of!rocket!launches!into!Israel! to!confirm!a!reduction!in!variance!of!the!support!of!parties!at!higher!levels!of!violence.!!

With!the!Israeli!case!I!look!at!how!the!salience!of!conflict!can!reduce!the!variance!by! reducing!the!number!of!competing!issues!and!competing!frames.!Chapter!6!concludes!the! research!with!some!suggestions!for!future!research.!

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! 8! CHAPTER)2:)LITERATURE)REVIEW)

In!this!chapter!I!look!at!similar!research!that!investigates!whether!hardline!parties! gain!a!clear!benefit!from!attacks!against!their!electorate.!!I!will!also!discuss!some!research! that!explores!how!groups!with!different!characteristics!respond!differently!to!the!same! violent!episodes.!!There!is!relevant!work!done!on!emotional!responses!using!the!Israeli!and!

Palestinian!cases!and!in!response!to!terror!attacks!more!generally.!!Finally!I!will!look!at! literature!that!explores!identity!as!an!important!mediating!variable.!

A!prevalent!view!of!the!effects!of!violence!on!the!public!opinion!of!the!targeted!state! is!that!the!violence!radicalizes!voters!and!causes!them!to!support!groups!that!are!willing!to! retaliate!with!violence,!reject!diplomatic!solutions,!and!take!a!hard!line!in!negotiations.!!Mia!

Bloom!(2004:!61),!for!example,!looks!at!why!Palestinian!public!support!for!suicide! bombing!increased!after!2000,!given!that!support!for!suicide!bombing!was!inconsistent!in! the!past.29!!In!one!aspect!of!her!argument,!Bloom!suggests!that!Israeli!violence!against!

Palestinians!radicalizes!the!Palestinian!population:!“This!callQandQresponse!blood! bath! has!radicalized!the! Palestinians,!encouraging!yet!more! ‘martyrs’”!Bloom!(2004:!81).30!!

Similarly,!Gordon!and!Arian!argue!that!threats!lead!people!to!prefer!belligerent!policies:!

“the!stronger!the!threat,!the!more!belligerent!the!policy!choice;!likewise,!the!lower!the! threat,!the!more!pacific!the!policy!choice”31!The!question!remains!whether!an!increase!in! support!for!belligerent!policies!necessarily!means!a!general!shift!in!support!toward! hardline!parties.! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 29!Bloom, Mia M. “Palestinian Suicide Bombing: Public Support, Market Share, and Outbidding.” Political Science Quarterly 119, no. 1 (2004): 61. 30!Bloom,!Mia!M.!“Palestinian!Suicide!Bombing:!Public!Support,!Market!Share,!and!Outbidding.”!Political* Science*Quarterly!119,!no.!1!(2004):!84.! 31!Gordon,!Carol,!and!Asher!Arian.!“Threat!and!Decision!Making.”!Journal*of*Conflict*Resolution!45,!no.!2!(April! 1,!2001):!196.!

! 9! ! Jaeger!and!Klor!(2012:!360,!362)!find!that!the!increase!in!support!for!hawkish! parties!is!shortQlived.!!In!contrast!to!Berrebi!and!Klor!(2008:!295)!who!found!that!Israeli! terror!fatalities!had!an!impact!on!electoral!preferences!for!up!to!a!year,!albeit!with!an! increasingly!attenuated!affect,32!Jaeger!and!Klor!found!that!with!the!Palestinian!electorate,! the!benefits!that!the!hardline!parties!gained!were!not!statistically!significant!after!3! months.!!What’s!more,!the!Palestinian!voters!who!defected!from!Fatah!as!a!result!of!

Palestinian!fatalities!were!more!likely!to!respond!that!they!didn’t!support!any!political! party!rather!than!shifting!their!support!to!hawkish!parties!like!Hamas.33!

! People!respond!differently!to!violence!depending!on!their!geographic!and!social! distance!from!an!attack.!!In!their!analysis!of!Israeli!responses!to!Palestinian!terror!attacks,!

Berrebi!and!Klor!(2008:!295)!find!that!Israeli!responses!to!terrorist!attacks!depend!on! whether!the!attack!occurred!in!their!immediate!locality!or!if!it!occurred!somewhere!in!

Israel!generally.!!At!the!national!level,!terrorist!attacks!lead!to!political!polarization:!Israelis! who!already!support!dovish!parties!increase!their!support!in!response!to!terrorist!attacks,! while!those!who!already!support!hardline!parties!also!increase!their!support!for!hardline! parties.!!However,!at!the!local!level,!both!leftQleaning!and!rightQleaning!Israelis!shift!their! support!to!hardline!parties!in!response!to!terrorist!attacks.34!!Jaeger!and!Klor!(2012:!364)! reported!a!similar!response!within!the!Palestinian!case.!!Palestinians!who!have! demographics!that!would!predict!a!higher!propensity!for!radicalization!become!more!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 32 Claude Berrebi and Esteban F. Klor, “Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism? Direct Evidence from the Israeli Electorate,” American Political Science Review 102, no. 03 (2008): 279–301. 33 David A. Jaeger et al., “The Struggle for Palestinian Hearts and Minds: Violence and Public Opinion in the Second Intifada,” Journal of Public Economics 96, no. 3–4 (April 2012): 360, 362. 34 Berrebi and Klor, “Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism?” 283, 287-88, 292

! 10! radical,!while!those!who!do!not!are!unaffected!by!an!increase!in!fatalities.!!They!find,! however,!that!the!polarization!affects!disappear!within!a!month.35!

! The!research!on!the!effects!of!violence!on!vote!share!overall!confirms!that!there!is!a! shift!in!support!to!the!hardline!parties,!but!the!magnitude!of!that!shift!is!not!as!large!as!is! commonly!thought36!and!it!is!shortQlived.!!What!are!some!of!the!possible!mechanisms!that! contribute!to!how!individuals!respond!to!violence?!!In!the!next!section!I!explore!terrorism! literature,!which!generally!relies!on!psychological!and!emotional!explanations!for! individual!responses.!

!

EMOTIONAL!RESPONSES!TO!THREAT!

One!area!of!research!focuses!on!the!emotional!response!people!have!to!terrorism! and!violence.!!Researchers!distinguish!several!kinds!of!emotional!responses!that!lead! people!to!support!different!kinds!of!policies.!!This!literature!provides!some!possible! explanations!why!some!people!respond!to!violence!against!their!community!with!an! increase!in!support!for!diplomatic!policies!while!others!respond!with!an!increase!in! support!for!retaliation!and!hawkish!policies.!

Leonie!Huddy!et!al.’s!(2002)!research!on!the!emotional!responses!to!the!September!

11th,!2001!attacks!in!the!US!sheds!some!light!on!Berrebi!and!Klor’s!(2008)!finding!that! people!respond!differently!to!violence!in!their!immediate!locality!versus!somewhere!else! within!their!national!territory.!!They!distinguish!between!people!who!respond!to!violence! with!a!feeling!of!personal!threat!versus!people!who!perceive!a!threat!to!their!nation.!!

People!who!feel!personally!threatened!respond!with!more!fear!and!anxiety.!!They!are!more! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 35 Jaeger et al., “The Struggle for Palestinian Hearts and Minds,” 364. 36 Ibid., 360.

! 11! likely!to!change!their!own!behavior!in!ways!they!think!will!lower!their!risk,!but!Huddy!et!al.! find!this!does!not!lead!to!a!change!in!preferences!for!national!policy.37!!Working!with!the!

IsraeliQPalestinian!case,!Maoz!and!McCauley!(2009)!similarly!found!that!feelings!of! personal!threat!in!response!to!violence!only!had!a!small!effect!on!increasing!the! respondent’s!willingness!to!compromise.38!!Halperin!et!al.!(2008)!also!found!that!directly! experiencing!terror!did!not!affect!personal!or!collective!fear,!but!it!did!reduce!the!level!of! hope.39!Huddy!et!al.!(2002)!are!building!on!the!work!of!Kinder!and!Sears!(1985)!who!claim! that!individuals!prefer!policies!that!benefit!the!collective!good!over!their!personal! advantage.40!!So!if!the!literature!supports!the!idea!that!the!national!level!of!threat!has!a! larger!effect!on!the!electorate!than!the!level!of!personal!threat,!then!how!do!different!kinds! of!news!sources!about!violence!affect!people’s!responses?!!

! Halperin!et!al.!(2008)!and!Bar!Tal!et!al.(2007)!suggest!that!the!process!of!citizens! becoming!informed!about!violent!events!isn’t!a!simple!reporting!of!the!news,!but!is!instead! a!dynamic!interaction!whereby!the!society!produces!“signals!and!cues”!that!shape!how!new! information!is!interpreted.41!!Kushner!Gadarian!(2010)!argues!that!the!media,!driven!by! competition,!makes!news!events!more!threatening!through!selective!reporting!and! emotional!delivery,!particularly!via!the!use!of!evocative!images.!This!in!turn!causes!the!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 37 Leonie Huddy et al., “The Consequences of Terrorism: Disentangling the Effects of Personal and National Threat,” Political Psychology 23, no. 3 (September 2002): 485–509. 38 Ifat Maoz and Clark McCauley, “Threat Perceptions and Feelings as Predictors of Jewish-Israeli Support for Compromise with Palestinians,” Journal of Peace Research 46, no. 4 (2009): 533. 39 Eran Halperin et al., “Emotions in Conflict: Correlates of Fear and Hope in the Israeli-Jewish Society,” Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology 14, no. 3 (2008): 233–58. 40 D.R. Kinder and D.O. Sears, “Public Opinion and Political Action,” in Handbook of Social Psychology, ed. Lindzey G. and Aronson E. (New York: Random House, 1985), 659–741. 41 Daniel Bar-Tal, Eran Halperin, and Joseph de Rivera, “Collective Emotions in Conflict Situations: Societal Implications,” Journal of Social Issues 63, no. 2 (2007): 253.

! 12! public!to!increase!their!support!for!hawkish!political!leaders.42!!For!example,!television! news!has!more!emotional!content!and!images,!and!as!a!result,!television!news!consumption! led!to!more!support!for!hawkish!policies!than!printed!news!consumption.43!!Gadarian’s!

(2010)!contribution!is!to!show!how!the!emotional!delivery!of!the!information!about!the! threat!rather!than!the!information!itself!causes!citizens!to!support!hawkish!policies.!

! There!has!been!a!considerable!amount!of!research!investigating!how!different! emotional!responses!elicit!different!policy!preferences,!either!retribution!and!defense!for! supporters!of!hardline!parties!or!diplomacy,!compromise,!and!concessions!for!supporters! of!dovish!parties.!Skitka!et!al.!(2006)!find!that!people!who!become!angry!as!a!response!to! threat!are!more!supportive!of!war,!while!people!who!respond!with!fear!were!less! supportive!of!war.44!!An!important!mechanism!of!this!response!is!risk.!Relying!on!the!work! of!Lerner!and!Keltner!(2001)!and!Appraisal!Tendency!Theory,!the!authors!build!on!the! claim!that!anger!decreases!the!amount!of!perceived!risk!while!increasing!the!amount!of! risk!tolerance.45!!Conversely,!people!who!are!afraid!perceive!more!risk!and!have!a!lower! tolerance!of!risk.!!War!incurs!risk,!which!is!why!angry!people!are!more!supportive!and! fearful!people!less!supportive.!!Individuals!who!responded!with!both!fear!and!anger!were! much!more!likely!to!want!to!retaliate,!particularly!if!they!had!characteristics!the!authors!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 42!Gadarian,!Shana!Kushner.!“The!Politics!of!Threat:!How!Terrorism!News!Shapes!Foreign!Policy!Attitudes.”! The*Journal*of*Politics!72,!no.!02!(2010):!468,!471.! 43!Gadarian,!Shana!Kushner.!“The!Politics!of!Threat:!How!Terrorism!News!Shapes!Foreign!Policy!Attitudes.”! The*Journal*of*Politics!72,!no.!02!(2010):!473.! 44 Linda Skitka et al., “Confrontational and Preventive Policy Responses to Terrorism: Anger Wants a Fight and Fear Wants ‘Them’ to Go Away,” Basic and Applied Social Psychology 28, no. 4 (2006): 379. 45 J.S. Lerner and D. Keltner, “Fear, Anger, and Risk,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 81 (2001): 146–59. J.S. Lerner et al., “Effects of Fear and Anger on Perceived Risks of Terrorism: A National Field Experiment.,” Psychological Science 14 (2003): 144–50.

! 13! refer!to!as!right!wing!authoritarian.46!!Huddy!et!al.!(2002)!also!found!that!when!a! perception!of!personal!threat!evoked!fear!and!anxiety,!people!were!more!likely!to!have!an! exaggerated!perception!of!threat!and!actively!sought!to!minimize!their!risk.47!!In!another! paper,!Huddy!et!al.!(2005)!distinguished!a!response!of!anxiety!from!a!perception!of! national!threat,!with!similar!policy!preferences!of!reduced!and!increased!support!for! government!retaliation,!respectively,!in!response!to!the!September!11th!terrorist!attacks.48!

! Also!working!with!the!Israeli!Palestinian!case,!Maoz!and!McCauley!(2009)!found! that!personal!fear!had!a!small!effect,!leading!respondents!to!be!more!willing!to! compromise,!while!religiosity,!a!perception!of!a!collective!threat,!or!a!perception!that!the! interaction!with!the!external!group!is!a!zero!sum!game!undermined!their!willingness!to! compromise.!!A!feeling!of!hostility!toward!the!threatening!group,!however,!did!not!have!a! significant!impact!on!willingness!to!compromise.49!

! The!terrorism!and!emotion!literature!establishes!useful!relationships!between! emotional!responses!and!policy!preferences,!but!how!do!people!make!decisions!when! threatened?!!And!how!can!this!be!applied!to!larger!populations!if!emotional!dispositions! are!randomly!distributed!across!the!population!as!a!whole?!!The!literature!on!threat!and! cognition!suggests!some!answers!to!how!decisions!are!processed,!and!research!on!Terror!

Management!Theory!as!well!as!research!on!identity!provides!some!insight!into!how! different!groups!within!a!population!may!respond!differently!to!the!same!events.!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 46 Skitka et al., “Confrontational and Preventive Policy Responses to Terrorism: Anger Wants a Fight and Fear Wants ‘Them’ to Go Away,” 382. 47 Huddy et al., “The Consequences of Terrorism: Disentangling the Effects of Personal and National Threat,” 506. 48 Leonie Huddy et al., “Threat, Anxiety, and Support of Antiterrorism Policies,” American Journal of Political Science 49, no. 3 (July 1, 2005): 593–608, doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2005.00144.x. 49 Maoz and McCauley, “Threat Perceptions and Feelings as Predictors of Jewish-Israeli Support for Compromise with Palestinians,” 532,533.

! 14! THREAT!AND!COGNITION!

! Terrorist!attacks!and!interQgroup!violence!can!have!varying!effects!in!terms!of! emotions!and!cognitive!processing!of!the!conflict.!!Gordon!and!Arian!(2001)!found!that! when!respondents!perceive!a!low!level!of!threat,!they!are!likely!to!respond!emotionally,!but! they!will!also!use!logic!to!rationally!work!out!which!policy!response!is!appropriate!to!an! attack.!!However,!when!respondents!perceive!a!high!level!of!threat,!their!reaction!is! primarily!affective.50!Gordon!and!Arian!are!building!on!the!work!of!Seymour!Epstein!

(1992)!who!made!the!case!that!people’s!choices!are!guided!by!emotions!when!they!feel! threatened,51!Janis!and!Feschbach’s!(1953)!study!which!distinguished!between!low!levels! of!threat!which!encouraged!people!to!change!their!attitudes!and!behavior!versus!high! levels!of!threat!which!led!people!to!a!state!of!cognitive!impairment,52!and!Rogers!and!

Mewborn’s!(1976)!study!on!smoking!that!found!that!when!people!are!confronted!with! information!about!a!low!level!of!threat!from!lung!cancer!this!led!to!a!decrease!in!smoking,! but!a!high!threat!of!lung!cancer!coupled!with!minimal!efficacy!in!avoiding!it!led!to! respondents!smoking!more.53,54!!

! Gordon!and!Arian!(2001)!describe!some!of!the!specific!results!of!cognitive! impairment,!particularly!for!people!in!a!social!conflict!who!have!felt!threatened!for!an! extended!period!of!time,!as!more!likely!to!use!stereotypes,!report!factually!incorrect! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 50 Carol Gordon and Asher Arian, “Threat and Decision Making,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 45, no. 2 (April 1, 2001): 197. 51 Seymour Epstein et al., “Irrational Reactions to Negative Outcomes: Evidence for Two Conceptual Systems,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 62, no. 2 (1992): 591–604; Seymour Epstein, “Integration of the Cognitive and Psychodynamic Unconscious,” American Psychologist 49, no. 8 (1994): 709–24. 52 Irving L. Janis and Seymour Feshbach, “Effects of Fear-Arousing Communications,” Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 48, no. 1 (1953): 78–92. 53 Ronald W. Rogers and C. Ronald Mewborn, “Fear Appeals and Attitude Change: Effects of a Threat’s Noxiousness, Probability of Occurrence, and the Efficacy of Coping Responses,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 34, no. 1 (1976): 54–61. 54 Gordon and Arian, “Threat and Decision Making,” 208.

! 15! information!about!the!conflict,!and!focus!on!selfQserving!subsets!of!information.55!This! research!on!the!varying!impacts!of!high!and!low!threat!are!consistent!with!the!results!I! found!in!both!the!Israeli!and!Palestinian!cases!where!hardline!parties!benefit!from!a!sharp! increase!in!support!and!leftQwing!parties!suffered!a!sharp!drop!in!support!at!the!highest! levels!of!violence.!!

! The!negative!relationship!between!threat!and!cognitive!performance!or!rational! appraisal!is!a!common!theme!in!the!literature!on!terrorism!and!public!opinion.!!Huddy!et! al.!(2002)!build!on!the!work!of!Gilligan!and!Bower!(1985)56!as!well!as!Matthews!and!

MacLeod!(1986)57!to!show!that!the!exaggerated!perception!of!risk!is!due!to!a!cognitive! failure.58!!In!their!study!on!how!fear!affects!Israelis’!willingness!to!compromise,!Maoz!and!

McCauley!(2009)!distinguish!threat,!which!they!consider!to!be!a!cognitive!response,!from! fear,!which!they!characterize!as!an!emotional!response.59!!!

Cognitive!shortcuts!and!emotional!processing!of!information!is!relevant!to!this! research!project!because!it!provides!a!potential!explanation!for!the!decrease!in!variance!in! party!support.!!Whether!individuals!are!using!fewer!policy!criteria!to!make!their! preferences!and!are!evaluating!parties!solely!on!the!security!dimension,!or!if!they!are! falling!back!to!parties!that!are!closely!associated!with!their!identity!when!they!feel! threatened,!both!explanations!would!predict!a!decrease!in!variance.!!And!the!two!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 55 Ibid., 206. 56 Stephen G. Gilligan and Gordon H. Bower, “Cognitive Consequences of Emotional Arousal,” in Emotions, Cognition, and Behavior, ed. Carrol E. Izard, Jerome Kagan, and Robert B. Zajonc (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 1985), 547–88. 57 Andrew Matthews and Colin MacLeod, “Discrimination of Threat Cues without Awareness in Anxiety States,” Journal of Abnormal Psychology 95, no. 2 (1986): 131–38. 58 Huddy et al., “The Consequences of Terrorism: Disentangling the Effects of Personal and National Threat,” 504. 59 Maoz and McCauley, “Threat Perceptions and Feelings as Predictors of Jewish-Israeli Support for Compromise with Palestinians,” 528.

! 16! possibilities!are!not!mutually!exclusive;!it’s!possible!for!an!individual!to!identify!as!a!Fatah! supporter!because!of!a!long!history!of!family!support!for!this!party,!while!also!thinking!first! and!foremost!about!Fatah’s!diplomatic!credentials.!!

!

TERROR!MANAGEMENT!THEORY!

! Another!area!of!research!in!the!threat!literature!focuses!on!our!subconscious! responses!to!being!reminded!of!our!mortality.!!Gordon!and!Arian!(2001)!summarize!terror! management!theory!as!a!response!to!the!fear!of!our!own!mortality,!particularly!when!we! have!been!reminded!of!our!mortality.!!To!compensate!or!reassure!ourselves,!we!focus!on! social!values!and!standards!so!that!we!can!convince!ourselves!that!we!have!meaningfully! met!these!expectations!in!a!way!that!may!transcend!our!deaths.!!A!consequence!is!that! when!we!are!confronted!with!our!mortality,!we!like!the!people!who!share!our!values!even! better,!and!we!dislike!the!people!who!are!opposed!to!our!values!even!more.60!!However,! liberals!and!conservatives!may!respond!to!mortality!salience!in!different!ways.!!Referring! to!Greenberg!et!al.!(1992),61!Gordon!and!Arian!point!out!that!if!liberals!value!pluralism,! then!they!are!more!likely!to!have!a!more!positive!view!of!people!who!are!different!from! them,!while!conservatives!are!more!likely!to!have!a!more!negative!view.!!!Terror! management!theory!is!consistent!with!the!polarization!effect!found!by!Berrebi!and!Klor!

(2008)!as!well!as!Jaeger!et!al.!(2012),!mentioned!above,!in!that!it!provides!an!explanation! for!why!different!people!respond!to!the!same!stimulus!in!different!ways,!and!why!we!don’t! see!a!more!substantial!shift!to!hardline!parties!in!response!to!terror!attacks.! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 60 Gordon and Arian, “Threat and Decision Making,” 208–209. 61 Jeff Greenberg et al., “Terror Management and Tolerance: Does Mortality Salience Always Intensify Negative Reactions of Others Who Threaten One’s World View?,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 63 (1992): 212–20.

! 17! ! Huddy!et!al.!(2007)!incorporate!terror!management!into!some!of!their!research!on!

American!responses!to!September!11th.!!They!add!an!additional!intervening!variable!of! personal!attachment!style!to!help!explain!why!some!people!have!higher!levels!of!perceived! threat!and!anxiety.!!The!authors!describe!secure*attachment!as!a!more!stable!characteristic! established!through!parenting!styles,!while!anxiety!is!a!reaction!to!a!more!immediate! experience!and!has!a!shorter!duration.62!!People!who!have!a!more!secure!attachment!style! are!less!likely!to!have!problems!with!depression!and!anxiety!or!to!engage!in!symbolic! patriotism,!an!indicator!of!inQgroup!attachment,!a!reaction!to!mortality!salience.63!!

!

THREAT!AND!IDENTITY!

! An!important!aspect!of!Terror!Management!Theory!is!the!individual’s!identity!and! which!group!they!see!themselves!belonging!to,!whether!that!is!a!shared!religious,!ethnic,! linguistic,!or!national!identity.!Gibler!et!al.!(2012)!find!that!people!who!are!in!countries! involved!in!territorial!conflict!identify!more!strongly!with!their!group,!but!this!varies! depending!on!whether!their!country!is!initiating!the!conflict!or!if!they!are!attacked.!!People! who!live!in!a!state!that!initiated*an*attack!are!more!likely!to!think!of!their!ethnic!group!as! their!primary!identity.!!People!who!live!in!a!country!that!was!attacked!are!more!likely!to! think!of!their!nation!state!as!the!primary!source!of!their!identity.!They!also!find!that! territorial!issues!are!salient!for!the!people!who!live!in!countries!engaged!in!conflict.64!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 62 Leonie Huddy, Stanley Feldman, and Christopher Weber, “The Political Consequences of Perceived Threat and Felt Insecurity,” Annals of American Academy of Political and Social Science 614 (November 2007): 136. 63 Ibid., 143–144. 64 Douglas M. Gibler, Marc L. Hutchison, and Miller Steven V., “Individual Identity Attachments and International Conflict: The Importance of Territorial Threat,” Comparative Political Studies 45, no. 12 (2012): 1655–83.

! 18! ! !Another!useful!way!to!consider!identity!issues!and!conflict!is!to!distinguish!identity! in!response!to!external!outQgroups,!for!example!between!Israelis!and!Palestinians,!vs.! identity!in!response!to!internal!outQgroups,!for!example!between!religious!and!secular!

Jews.65!!In!their!analysis!of!the!Israeli!electorate,!Shamir!and!Arian!(1999)!show!there!is!an! interaction!between!these!two!identities,!particularly!as!religious!groups!have!become! committed!to!nationalistic!and!territorial!issues.66!Prior!to!1996,!whether!someone!was!of!

Ashkenazi!or!Sephardic!origin!was!a!more!important!demographic!characteristic,!but!by!

1996!religious!differences!had!become!the!most!important!demographic!variable.!

Collective!identity!was!an!important!issue!in!the!1999!Israeli!election,!with!key!issues! revolving!around!the!territorial!boundaries!and!whether!Israel!should!be!defined!as!a!

Jewish!state.!!In!this!election!there!was!a!high!correlation!of!the!identity!indicators!with! vote!choices,!more!so!for!external!identity.!!For!those!respondents!categorized!as!hawks:!!

! The! Likud! vote! in! this! category! varied! between! 93%! and! 96%,! and! the! Netanyahu! vote! between! 88%! and! 98%.! ! The! mirror! image! is! obtained! among! the! oneQthird! of! voters! identified!as!Doves.!Between!88%!and!98%!of!them!voted!for!labor!rather!than!Likud!and! between!92%!and!97%!for!Peres.67! ! ! With!the!hawks!and!doves!strongly!committed!to!their!partisan!positions,!parties! competed!for!voters!in!the!middle!position!on!foreign!policy!issues.!!For!these!voters,! internal!identification!was!an!important!determinant!of!their!vote.!

! Another!aspect!of!identity!and!threat!that!has!been!explored!is!intolerance.!!This!is! again!related!to!Terror!Management!Theory!in!that!some!people!who!are!reminded!of!their!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 65 Michael Shamir and Asher Arian, “Collective Identity and Electoral Competition in Israel,” The American Political Science Review 93, no. 2 (1999): 266. 66 Ibid., 271. 67 Ibid., 274.

! 19! mortality!become!less!tolerant!of!outQgroups.!!Gibson!(2006)!posits!that!threat!is,!“the! single!most!important!predictor!of!intolerance.”68!!And,!consistent!with!the!work!cited! above,!group!level!threat!has!a!larger!effect!on!intolerance!than!individual!threat.!!Gibson! builds!on!the!work!of!Sullivan,!Piereson,!and!Marcus!(1982)69!who!propose!three!key! variables!contributing!to!tolerance:!people!who!perceive!a!threat!to!their!group!are!less! tolerant!to!the!source!of!that!threat,!those!with!more!democratic!values!are!more!tolerant,! and!the!more!emotionally!insecure!are!less!tolerant.!!However,!Gibson!makes!the!point!that! the!relationship!between!insecurity!and!intolerance!is!not!due!to!an!increase!in!threat! perception.70!

! The!work!done!by!Hutchison!(2014)!on!threat!and!intolerance!has!particular! relevance!for!internal!threats!in!the!Israeli!and!Palestinian!cases.!!He!uses!data!from!the!

World!Values!Survey!on!32!countries!with!the!goal!of!making!more!generalizable!claims! about!the!relationship!between!threat!and!tolerance.!!Hutchison!finds!that,!“civil!war,! internal!armed!conflicts,!or!fatal!terrorist!attacks,”!decrease!the!amount!of!tolerance!in! society!in!general,!not!just!to!the!aggressive!group.71!!He!builds!on!work!by!Coser!(1956)72! and!Simmel!(1955)73!and!their!findings!that!people!can!have!a!more!negative!response!to! internal!division!than!to!external!threats.!!The!internal!division!is!seen!as!creating! weakness!in!the!face!of!threat!and!as!a!form!of!betrayal.!!Following!the!most!recent!war!in!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 68 James L. Gibson, “Enigmas of Intolerance: Fifty Years after Stouffer’s Communism, Conformity, and Civil Liberties.,” Perspectives on Politics 4, no. 1 (2006): 22. 69 John L. Sullivan, James E. Piereson, and George E. Marcus, Political Tolerance and American Democracy (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1982). 70 Gibson, “Enigmas of Intolerance: Fifty Years after Stouffer’s Communism, Conformity, and Civil Liberties.,” 24. 71 Marc L. Hutchison, “Tolerating Threat? The Independent Effects of Civil Conflict on Domestic Political Tolerance,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 58, no. 5 (2014): 798. 72 Lewis A. Coser, The Functions of Social Conflict (Glencoe, IL: The Free Press, 1956). 73 Georg Simmel, Conflict, trans. K.H. Wolff (Glencoe, IL: The Free Press, 1955).

! 20! Gaza,!antiQwar!Israeli!protestors!were!beaten!by!rightQwing!extremists!and!expressions!of! sympathy!for!Palestinians!by!public!figures!were!followed!by!threats.74!Palestinians! similarly!have!a!fierce!political!culture!of!punishing!people!who!are!deemed!to!be! collaborators,!and!the!accusation!of!collaboration!is!sometimes!used!against!people!who! support!concessions!for!the!peace!process.!

! Schafer!(1999)!ran!two!experiments!to!test!how!internal!group!similarity!affects! threat!perception.!!Building!on!social!identity!theory,!the!author!finds!that!when!test! subjects!were!in!groups!that!were!more!dissimilar,!they!felt!less!secure!in!relation!to! threatening!outQgroups,!particularly!if!the!outQgroup!was!hostile.75!He!delineates!three! kinds!of!group!identity.!!How!similar!are!the!people!in!the!group!to!each!other?!!How! personally!invested!or!involved!is!the!individual!in!the!group?!!And,!how!different!or! threatening!is!the!outQgroup?76!!When!respondents!felt!more!secure,!they!also!showed! cooperative!preferences,!however!the!portrayal!of!the!outQgroup!was!not!as!significant.!!In! the!second!experiment,!respondents!were!more!hostile!as!they!identified!more!with!their! inQgroup.!77!

! The!literature!investigating!identity!overall!suggests!that!conflict!and!threat!have!an! important!effect!on!identity,!making!it!more!salient!and!influencing!people’s!voting! preferences.!!The!aspect!of!identity!that!becomes!important!is!relative!to!the!kind!of!threat,! whether!it!is!an!ethnic,!or!national!identity,!as!found!in!Gibler!et!al.’s!work!(2012),!religious! versus!secular!in!Shamir!and!Arian’s!(1999),!or!simply!those!who!support!the!national!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 74 Zonszein Mairav, “How Israel Silences Dissent,” New York Times, September 26, 2014, sec. Opinion. 75 Mark Schafer, “Cooperative and Conflictual Policy Preferences: The Effect of Identity, Security, and Image of the Other,” Political Psychology 20, no. 4 (December 1999): 834. 76 Ibid., 832. 77 Ibid., 836.

! 21! cause!against!those!who!are!critical!of!it!as!in!the!case!of!Hutchison!(2014)!and!Schafer’s!

(1999)!work.!!Identity!becomes!increasingly!important!as!those!with!shared!characteristics! become!more!homogenous!in!their!political!values.!!This!is!apparent!in!Shamir!and!Arian’s!

(1999)!work!as!Ashkenazi!Jews!shared!preferences!for!secular!institutions,!dovish!foreign! policy!and!a!national!identity!defined!as!Israeli,!while!Sephardic!Jews!were!more!likely!to! identify!as!Jewish,!hawkish,!and!more!religious.78!!Overall,!while!some!aspects!of!a! heightened!salience!of!identity!are!negative,!particularly!as!threatening!groups!are! stereotyped!and!people!become!less!tolerant!of!dissent!and!less!willing!to!compromise,! there!are!also!people!with!strong!democratic!values!with!preferences!for!cooperation!and! diplomacy!who!hold!these!values!more!strongly!in!response!to!threat.!

!

CONCLUSION!

! While!a!common!view!is!that!violence!leads!to!an!increase!in!support!for!hardline! parties,!other!research!done!by!Jaeger!et!al.!(2012)!and!Berrebi!and!Klor!(2008)!finds!that! the!effects!on!voter!preferences!is!shortQlived,!typically!dissipating!within!3!months.!!In! addition,!how!a!community!responds!depends!on!its!prior!political!disposition!toward! dovish!or!hardline!parties,!with!attacks!pushing!communities!further!left!and!further!right,! respectively,!causing!political!polarization.!At!the!local!level!however,!people!who!have!a! more!personal!experience!of!violence!are!more!likely!to!shift!their!support!to!hardline! parties,!even!if!they!supported!dovish!parties!prior!to!the!attack.!Berrebi!and!Klor!(2008)!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 78 Shamir and Arian, “Collective Identity and Electoral Competition in Israel,” 272.

! 22! found!this!to!be!true!with!the!Israeli!electorate,!79!and!Jaeger!et!al.!(2012)!found!this!to!be! true!of!the!Palestinian!electorate.!80!!!

! One!particular!problem!that!Berrebi!and!Klor!(2008)!dealt!with!in!their!analysis!that! has!important!bearing!on!my!project!is!how!to!estimate!effects!of!national!level!violence!on! a!leftQleaning!community!that!also!directly!experiences!violent!attacks.!!According!to!their! conclusions,!national!level!violence!will!push!the!community!further!to!the!left!while!the! local!violence!would!push!their!preferences!toward!hardline!parties.!!The!authors!found! that!a!ratio!between!national!level!and!local!level!violence!was!effective!in!estimating!the! combined!effect!on!voter!preferences,!so!that!if!the!number!of!local!fatalities!is!much!higher! then!the!community!will!increase!their!support!for!hardline!parties!and!vice!versa!for! national!level!fatalities.81!!The!implication!of!this!for!my!project!is!that!these!opposite!and! converging!pressures!contribute!to!an!average!level!of!support!for!parties!that!fall!close!to! the!median!level!of!support!under!nonQviolent!conditions.!!According!to!Berrebi!and!Klor!

(2008),!these!opposite!and!converging!pressures!only!apply!to!leftQleaning!voters,!so!voters! who!previously!supported!hardline!parties!will!increase!their!support!in!response!to!both! local!and!national!level!attacks.!This!would!explain!why!overall,!violence!gives!hardline! parties!a!shortQterm!gain!over!dovish!parties.!

! A!lot!of!the!terrorism!literature!incorporates!psychological!research!on!emotions! and!threat.!!An!important!finding!that!sheds!light!on!the!differences!between!violence!that! occurs!in!a!respondent’s!immediate!community!versus!the!nation!at!large!is!the!difference! between!personal!threat!and!national!threat,!with!the!latter!being!a!more!important!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 79 Berrebi and Klor, “Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism?” 283, 287-88, 292 80 Jaeger et al., “The Struggle for Palestinian Hearts and Minds,” 364. 81 Berrebi and Klor, “Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism?,” 292.

! 23! predictor!of!preferences.82!Those!who!respond!to!a!perceived!threat!with!fear!are!more! likely!to!have!an!inflated!perception!of!risk!and!have!a!lower!risk!tolerance,!while!those! who!respond!to!threat!with!anger!are!more!likely!to!estimate!a!lower!level!of!risk!and!they! have!a!higher!risk!tolerance.!83!

! Some!of!the!research!on!threat!and!emotions!discusses!the!effects!on!cognition.!!

Gordon!and!Arian!(2001)!find!that!at!low!levels!of!threat,!people!assess!their!environment! with!a!mix!of!affective!and!rational!processes,!but!under!conditions!of!high!threat,!people! are!more!likely!to!rely!heavily!on!emotions.84!!Huddy!et!al.!(2002)!suggest!that!an! exaggerated!perception!of!risk!in!itself!is!a!cognitive!failure.!

! The!research!on!emotions!provides!a!possible!explanation!for!the!decrease!in! variation!I!found!in!the!Israeli!and!Palestinian!cases!in!that!more!complex!criteria!for!party! preferences!might!lead!to!more!variation!in!the!amount!of!support!a!party!receives.!!Given! that!higher!levels!of!violence!make!threat!a!more!important!factor!in!electoral!choice,!the! support!for!leftQwing!parties!may!be!more!consistent!because!those!supporters!become! more!fearful!and!more!risk!averse,!while!the!support!for!hardline!parties!may!become! more!consistent!because!those!supporters!respond!with!more!anger!and!become!less!risk! averse.!!If!threat!reduces!cognitive!processing,!then!in!itself!this!implies!a!more!simplistic! analysis!with!less!nuance.!!A!problem!with!this!explanation!is!that!it!is!difficult!to!imagine! that!Likud!supporters!are!predominantly!angry!and!Labor!supporters!are!predominantly! afraid,!particularly!given!the!combination!of!other!demographic!characteristics!that!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 82 Huddy et al., “Threat, Anxiety, and Support of Antiterrorism Policies.” 83 Lerner and Keltner, “Fear, Anger, and Risk.” Lerner et al., “Effects of Fear and Anger on Perceived Risks of Terrorism: A National Field Experiment.” 84 Gordon and Arian, “Threat and Decision Making,” 197.

! 24! correlate!with!party!preferences,!like!education,!gender,!and!in!the!Israeli!case,!Ashkenazi! or!Sephardic!ethnic!origins.!!Something!is!missing!from!the!model.!

! Terror!Management!Theory!and!research!on!threat!and!identity!provide!potential! missing!pieces!to!this!model.!!Terror*Management*Theory*proposes!that!people!are!deeply! unsettled!when!they!are!reminded!of!their!mortality.!!In!the!process!of!trying!to!reduce!this! anxiety,!this!theory!suggests!that!people!tend!to!like!people!who!are!similar!to!them!even! more!and!to!more!strongly!dislike!people!who!are!different.85!!This!would!affect!which! party!people!support!if!some!parties!cater!to!hostility!toward!and!confrontation!with!outQ groups,!both!internal!and!external.!!However,!different!preQexisting!values!will!lead!to! different!responses!to!mortality!salience,!so!that!those!with!democratic!values!that!value! plurality!and!inclusiveness!will!be!more!accepting!of!those!who!are!different!and!may! therefore!increase!support!for!parties!that!represent!those!values.86!If!preQexisting!values! increase!in!importance!for!people!who!are!reminded!of!their!mortality!in!response!to! threat!and!violence,!then!this!contributes!to!an!understanding!of!the!polarization!that!

Jaeger!et!al.!(2012)!and!Berrebi!and!Klor!(2008)!found!in!the!Israeli!and!Palestinian!cases.!

! Research!on!identity!and!threat!has!a!lot!of!overlap!with!Terror!Management!

Theory,!without!some!of!the!internal!psychological!causal!mechanisms.!!Terror!

Management!Theory!puts!more!emphasis!on!values!while!identity!theories!focus!more!on! the!group!that!one!belongs!to.!!There!are!a!number!of!different!aspects!of!identity!that!can! become!an!important!lens!for!interpreting!and!organizing!information!about!events,!so!that! an!individual’s!inQgroup!may!be!other!people!with!a!shared!religious!belief,!ethnicity,!or!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 85 Ibid., 208–209. 86 Ibid., 209.

! 25! national!identity.!87,88!Identity!becomes!more!salient!in!response!to!threat,!which!is!very! strongly!correlated!with!intolerance.89!And!threat!also!greatly!reduces!tolerance!of!internal! dissent.!90,91!!!

! Terror!Management!and!identity!theories!provide!possible!key!intervening! variables!between!threat!and!emotional!responses!to!threat.!!The!ideology!and!values!that! voters!have!affect!how!they!respond!to!mortality!salience!and!whether!they!respond!to! threat!with!intolerance.!!The!identity!literature!adds!further!explanation!for!the! polarization!effects!that!result!from!threat!found!by!Jaeger!et!al.!(2012)!and!Berrebi!and!

Klor!(2008),!as!people!become!less!tolerant!of!those!within!their!national!inQgroup!who! cause!division.!92!The!perception!that!your!inQgroup!is!divided!or!that!it!does!not!share! important!characteristics!contributes!to!a!sense!of!insecurity!in!relation!to!outQgroups.!93!!

Skitka!(2006),!building!on!the!work!of!Smith’s!(1993)!intergroup!emotion!theory94!finds! there!is!a!higher!probability!that!people!will!respond!with!anger!to!conflict!with!outQgroups!! if!they!believe!their!own!group!is!strong,!and!they!are!more!likely!to!respond!with!fear!and!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 87 Gibler, Hutchison, and Miller Steven V., “Individual Identity Attachments and International Conflict: The Importance of Territorial Threat.” 88 Shamir and Arian, “Collective Identity and Electoral Competition in Israel,” 266. 89 Gibson, “Enigmas of Intolerance: Fifty Years after Stouffer’s Communism, Conformity, and Civil Liberties.,” 22. 90 Hutchison, “Tolerating Threat? The Independent Effects of Civil Conflict on Domestic Political Tolerance,” 798. 91 Schafer, “Cooperative and Conflictual Policy Preferences: The Effect of Identity, Security, and Image of the Other,” 836. 92 Hutchison, “Tolerating Threat? The Independent Effects of Civil Conflict on Domestic Political Tolerance,” 798. 93 Schafer, “Cooperative and Conflictual Policy Preferences: The Effect of Identity, Security, and Image of the Other,” 836. 94 Eliot R. Smith, “Social Identity and Social Emotions: Toward New Conceptualizations of Prejudice,” in Affect, Cognition, and Stereotyping: Interactive Processes in Group Perception, ed. Diane M. Mackie and David L. Hamilton (San Diego, CA: Academic Press, 1993), 297–315. Eliot R. Smith, “Affective and Cognitive Implications of a Group Becoming Part of the Self: New Models of Prejudice and of the Self-Concept,” in Social Identity and Social Cognition, ed. Dominic Abrams and Michael A. Hogg (Oxford, England: Basil Blackwell, 1999), 183–96.

! 26! risk!aversion!if!they!believe!their!own!group!is!weak.95!!Skitka!also!integrates!Lerner!et!al.’s!

(2003)!Appraisal!Tendency!Theory96!to!describe!a!cognitive!interaction!wherein!emotions! affect!how!things!are!appraised!and!how!things!are!appraised!affects!emotional!reactions.97!!

So!it!isn’t!the!case!that!Likud!supporters!are!born!angry!and!risk!tolerant!while!Labor! supporters!are!born!afraid!and!riskQaverse,!but!that!their!ideology!and!values!shape!their! emotional!reaction!and!perception!of!threat!and!risk.!And!it’s!also!quite!possible!that! people!identify!with!their!political!party.!!Their!parents!may!support!this!party,!and!when! times!become!difficult,!they!return!to!what!is!familiar,!leading!to!more!consistent!voting!at! high!levels!of!violence.!

!

! !

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 95 Skitka et al., “Confrontational and Preventive Policy Responses to Terrorism: Anger Wants a Fight and Fear Wants ‘Them’ to Go Away,” 376. 96 Lerner et al., “Effects of Fear and Anger on Perceived Risks of Terrorism: A National Field Experiment.” 97 Skitka et al., “Confrontational and Preventive Policy Responses to Terrorism: Anger Wants a Fight and Fear Wants ‘Them’ to Go Away,” 376.

! 27! CHAPTER)3:)METHODS)CHAPTER) !

! In!this!chapter!I!will!provide!some!background!on!the!methods!and!sources!of!data! used.!!I!will!first!discuss!chapter!2!and!the!Palestinian!case,!the!polling!companies!PCPSR! and!JMCC,!and!B’tselem’s!fatality!data.98!!I!will!also!go!into!more!detail!about!the!discounted! sum!of!fatalities,!and!the!regression!analysis.!!For!the!Israeli!case!I!will!discuss!the!polling! data!sources,!the!rocket,!mortar,!and!fatality!data!and!the!combined!rocket!and!mortar! index.!

! For!Chapter!2!and!the!Palestinian!case!the!two!sources!of!polling!data!that!I!use!are! the!Palestinian!Center!for!Policy!and!Survey!Research!(PCPSR)!and!the!Jerusalem!Media! and!Communication!Center!(JMCC).!!PCPSR!conducts!surveys!approximately!every!three! months.!!I!limit!the!polls!I!use!to!the!period!of!available!daily!fatality!data!provided!by!

B’tselem,!which!at!this!point!is!available!from!the!beginning!of!the!Second!Intifada,!starting!

September!29,!2000!until!March!19,!2015.99!!There!are!55!polls!within!this!span!of!time.!

With!the!exception!of!special!polls!taken!after!an!important!event,!each!of!these!polls!asks! respondents!which!political!party!they!support.!!This!is!the!question!I!use!to!calculate!the! variance!in!support!for!Palestinian!political!parties.!

! The!PCPSR!polls!also!ask!substantive!questions.!!I!created!four!categories!of!topics! that!are!relevant!to!the!peace!process!and!searched!through!the!55!polls!to!see!which!poll! questions!were!repeated.!!I!collected!poll!questions!related!to!whether!the!respondent!felt! threatened!and!if!the!question!asked!about!their!attitude!about!the!use!of!violence.!I!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 98 Khalil Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit,” Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, n.d., http://www.pcpsr.org/. JMCC, “Public Opinion Poll” (Jerusalem Media & Communication Center, n.d.), http://www.jmcc.org/polls.aspx. “Statistics | B’Tselem.” 99 B’tselem offers data on fatalities prior to this time, but it is provided as an annual summary.

! 28! collected!questions!regarding!respondent’s!attitude!to!the!peace!process.!!I!also!collected! questions!that!asked!about!governance,!the!perception!of!the!general!state!of!Gaza!or!the!

West!Bank,!how!corrupt!they!perceived!their!government!to!be,!and!whether!they!believed! their!current!leadership!was!legitimate.100!!In!order!to!have!sufficient!coverage!I!only!used! poll!questions!that!were!asked!a!minimum!of!12!times.!!There!are!18!poll!questions!that!fit! this!criterion.!

! I!combined!the!PCPSR!poll!question,!“Which!political!party!do!you!support”!with!the!

JMCC!poll!question!that!asks,!“Which!political!party!do!you!trust.”!101!!The!two!data!sources! were!combined!in!order!to!increase!the!number!of!data!points.!!There!are!40!polls!from!

JMCC.!The!JMCC!polls!range!form!December!21,!2000!to!February!25,!2015.!!

! For!the!Palestinian!case!I!initially!separate!the!parties!into!two!blocks.!!The!militant! block!includes!parties!that!are!opposed!to!the!peace!process!and!use!violence!as!their! primary!means!of!meeting!their!political!objectives.!!These!include!Hamas,!Islamic!Jihad,! and!PFLP.!!The!line!separating!the!categories!is!somewhat!fuzzy!as!most!of!the!parties! participate!in!violence!to!some!extent.!!I!surveyed!the!Meir!Amit!Intelligence!and!

Terrorism’s!weekly!reports!and!counted!the!number!of!times!a!group!took!responsibility! for!a!violent!act.!!Fatah’s!militant!wing,!alQAqsa!Martyr’s!brigade,!claimed!responsibility!for! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 100 Questions of legitimacy were asked within a context of a split in the Palestinian government between the Palestinian Liberation Organization led by Fatah in the West Bank and Hamas, which controls Gaza. In the January 2006 Palestinian Legislative Council election, Hamas won 74 out of 132 seats. In June of 2007, after a period of conflict between Hamas and Fatah, Hamas took over the Gaza strip, creating two parallel governments. 101 Though the wording of these polls is slightly different, it can lead to slightly different responses. However, in both surveys the respondents are only given one option. When comparing the average of all of the PCPSR polls to the average of all of the JMCC polls where respondents said they “support” Hamas versus “trust” Hamas, the averages are 21.9% and 20.4% respectively. The difference between the averages for Fatah are a little larger: the average for all of the PCPSR poll responses indicating they “support Fatah” is 31.5% compared to the average for all of the JMCC polls where respondents said they “trust Fatah” which si 34%. Some of this difference may be due to a disparity between people who trust a party but don’t support them and vice versa, but PCPSR polls and JMCC polls are not taken at the same time and it may be that the sample size of the number of polls not high enough. I combine these polls knowing it reduces precision, but I believe the benefit of gaining a few more polls at the highest levels of violence outweighs the loss of precision.

! 29! 29!violent!attacks!against!Israelis!and!the!Democratic!Front!for!the!Liberation!of!Palestine!

(DFLP)!took!responsibility!for!24!attacks,!but!Fatah!has!been!the!primary!actor!in!all!of!the! peace!negotiations!with!Israel!and!the!DFLP!nominally!accepts!the!peace!process.!102!!In!the!

Palestinian!case!then,!the!moderate!parties!have!militant!wings!that!use!relatively!less! violence!and!accept!the!peace!process,!with!the!exceptions!of!the!Palestinian!National!

Initiative!(PNI),!Third!Way,!and!the!Palestinian!People’s!Party!(PPP),!which!did!not!claim! responsibility!for!violence!during!the!period,!surveyed.!!See!Table!1!for!a!comparison! across!parties.!

!

Table)3.1)Palestinian)parties,)use)of)violence,)and)opposition)to)the)peace)process.) Party! Number!of!times!it!has! Opposed!to!the!peace! claimed!responsibility!for! process! rocket!attacks*! Fatah! 29! no! PNI! 0! no! 3rd!Way! 0! no! PPP! 0! no! DFLP! 24! no! PFLP! 43! yes! Hamas**! 33! yes! Islamic!Jihad! 48! yes! 1. *Obtained!by!surveying!weekly!reports!of!rocket!attacks!from!the!Meir!Amit!Intelligence!and! Terrorism!Information!Center!from!May!2008!through!September!2014.103!I!counted!all!claims!of! responsibility!for!violent!actions!including!stabbings!and!small!arms!fire.! 2. **Hamas!has!a!lower!number!of!times!they!claimed!responsibility!for!rocket!attacks,!but!overall!they! fire!a!larger!number!of!rockets.!!This!is!because!they!have!refrained!from!firing!rockets!during!ceaseQ fires!with!Israel,!but!during!periods!of!major!conflict!like!Operation!Protective!Edge!or!Operation!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 102 The leader of the DFLP, Nayef Hawatmeh, in a November 2013 interview rejected the peace process that was ongoing at that time, but he did not reject the peace process in general. He expressed a willingness to negotiate if Israel accepted Palestinian preconditions.

Nayef Hawatmeh, Israel Does Not Want Peace, December 3, 2013, http://www.dflp- palestine.net/english/interviews/israel-does-not-want-peace-granma-dec-3-2013.html. 103 “The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center,” accessed October 14, 2013, http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/.

! 30! Cast!Lead,!Hamas!has!the!largest!arsenal!of!rockets!and!launches!far!more!rockets!than!the!other! militant!groups.*104! !

The!fatality!data!comes!from!a!human!rights!organization!called!B’tselem.!!This! organization!collects!information!about!each!fatality:!the!name!of!the!victim,!where!it! happened,!and!a!limited!amount!of!demographic!information.!!The!information!is!provided! with!the!date!specified!as!opposed!to!weekly!or!monthly!summaries,!which!is!particularly! valuable!for!this!project.!!And!in!a!context!where!other!Palestinian!and!Israeli!sources!have! an!incentive!to!exaggerate!or!underreport!fatalities,!B’tselem!is!seen!as!a!relatively! unbiased!data!source.!!It!is!an!independent!organization!that!is!funded!by!donors!from!the!

US!and!Europe,!as!opposed!to!being!organizationally!dependent!on!the!Israeli!or!

Palestinian!governments.!It!is!relied!upon!by!a!number!of!social!science!researchers!like!

(Jaeger!and!Paserman!2009),!(Benmelech,!Berrebi,!and!Klor!2010),!(Bloom!2004)!among! others.!

! In!order!to!measure!the!level!of!violence!for!the!Palestinian!case,!I!use!a!discounted! sum!of!fatalities.!!Prior!to!each!opinion!poll,!I!count!the!number!of!fatalities!for!the!40!days! prior!to!the!poll.!!Berrebi!and!Klor!found!that!in!the!Israeli!case!the!effects!of!violence!on! voters!were!stronger!the!closer!the!violent!event!occurred!before!an!election.105!!Applying! the!same!logic!to!the!Palestinian!case,!I!weight!the!fatalities!that!occur!closer!to!the!time!of! each!opinion!poll!more!strongly!than!those!that!occur!further!back!in!time.!!I!count!the! fatalities!during!the!ten!days!before!the!poll!at!full!value.!!For!the!30!days!prior!to!that,!I! count!the!fatalities!at!increasingly!reduced!values!so!that!day!11!is!counted!as!the!fraction!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 104 Bill Van Esveld, “Rockets from Gaza” (Human Rights Watch, August 6, 2009), 12, http://www.hrw.org/node/84867/section/1. 105 Berrebi and Klor, “Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism?,” 294–295.

! 31! 29/30!of!it’s!full!value,!and!day!12!as!28/30!through!the!40th!day.!!As!seen!in!Chapter!4!

Table!1,!other!ranges!of!time!have!similar!results,!however,!consistent!with!Jaeger!et!al.’s!

(2012)!research!on!the!effects!of!violence,!the!effects!of!the!violence!dissipate!within!90! days.106!

! In!the!Palestinian!chapter,!I!do!a!number!of!regression!analyses!in!the!last!section,!

“substantive!polling!questions,!parties,!and!violence.”!!I!run!a!regression!analysis!for!the! polling!questions!against!the!discounted!sum!of!fatalities,!a!regression!analysis!for!the! parties!against!the!discounted!sum!of!fatalities!and!a!regression!analysis!of!each!party! against!each!poll!question.!!

!

ISRAELI!CHAPTER!

In!the!Israeli!chapter!I!use!two!measures!of!violence,!the!first!is!a!discounted!sum!of!

Israeli!fatalities!over!the!preceding!30!days.!!I!use!a!slightly!shorter!lag!period!for!the!Israeli! fatalities!compared!to!the!Palestinian!fatalities,!as!the!effect!on!Israeli!voters!seems!to! dissipate!faster!than!the!Palestinian!voters.!!This!makes!a!certain!amount!of!sense!as!

Israelis!see!Palestinian!violence!as!terrorism,!and!the!strategic!response!to!terrorism!is!to! not!be!terrorized.!!I!use!the!human!rights!organization!B’tselem!as!a!source!for!Israeli! fatalities!as!well!as!Palestinian!fatalities.!!For!the!discounted!value,!I!count!the!fatalities!that! occur!on!the!day!preceding!each!opinion!poll!at!full!value.!!For!each!day!prior!I!decrease!the! value!by!an!additional!1/30th!so!that!the!value!of!the!second!day!is!counted!as!29/30th,!and! the!third!day!at!28/30th!until!the!30th!day,!which!is!counted!at!1/30th!of!its!value.!Then!I! sum!up!the!partial!values!for!the!30!days!preceding!the!poll.!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 106 Jaeger et al., “The Struggle for Palestinian Hearts and Minds,” 355, 358, 362.

! 32! For!the!second!measure!of!violence,!I!use!a!discounted!sum!of!the!rockets!and!mortars! over!the!40!days!preceding!each!public!opinion!poll.!!For!a!count!of!the!rockets!and!mortars!

I!use!data!from!the!Israel!Security!Agency!from!July!1st!2004!through!October!31st!2008.107!!

I!then!use!data!from!the!Meir!Amit!Intelligence!Center!(ITIC)!from!November!1st,!2008!until! the!end!of!the!period!under!study.108!!I!use!the!ITIC!data!after!November!2008!because!this! source!provides!the!specific!date!of!most!of!the!rocket!launchings,!while!the!ISA!provides! weekly!totals.!!The!ITIC!is!a!proQIsrael!organization!that!is!part!of!the!Israeli!Intelligence!

Heritage!and!Commemoration!Center.!!ITIC’s!stated!purpose!is!to!collect!information!about! terrorism.!!I!use!this!source!because!it!provides!the!date!of!each!rocket!attack,!as!opposed! to!the!Israeli!Defense!Force!Website,!which!provides!weekly!totals.!!The!ISA!provides!two! numerical!values!for!rocket!attacks,!a!count!of!the!number!of!incidents!of!rocket!launching! and!a!count!of!the!total!number!of!rockets!fired.!!I!use!the!count!of!the!total!number!of! rockets!fired.!

For!the!public!opinion!polls,!I!collected!polls!from!a!number!of!private!polling! companies,!most!of!which!produce!opinion!polls!for!Israeli!newspapers.!!These!polls! generally!only!ask!who!the!respondent!is!going!to!vote!for,!in!contrast!to!the!Palestinian!

Center!for!Policy!and!Survey!Research!polls!which!ask!about!party!preference!along!with! views!on!a!range!of!substantive!issues.!!Some!of!the!polling!companies!include:!Dahaf,!

Dialog,!Geocartography,!Maagar!Mochet,!New!Wave,!Panels,!Teleseker,!Smith,!Shvakim,!and! a!few!from!smaller!polling!companies.109!!Almost!all!of!the!polling!companies!use!a!formula!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 107 “Terror Data and Trends,” Israel Security Agency, n.d., http://www.shabak.gov.il/english/enterrordata/pages/default.aspx. 108 “The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center.” 109 Several online sources have been particularly useful for collecting this polling data. Jeremy’s Knesset Insider, the Angus Reid Institute, and Independent Media Research and Analysis.

! 33! to!allocate!the!undecided!votes!among!the!parties,!while!a!very!small!number!of!poll!results! are!given!with!the!undecided!votes!reported!separately.!!I!don’t!include!those!polls!in!the! analysis!because!the!results!the!totals!are!inconsistent!with!those!that!include!the! undecided!votes.!

! In!the!Israeli!chapter,!the!section!“Underlying!Preferences:!Substantive!Poll!

Questions”!uses!data!from!the!Joint!Israeli!Palestinian!Polls!(JIPP).110!!These!polls!are! conducted!by!the!Konrad!Adenauer!institute!in!conjunction!with!the!Harry!S.!Truman!

Research!Institute!for!the!Advancement!of!Peace!and!the!Palestinian!Center!for!Policy!and!

Survey!Research.111!In!contrast!to!the!opinion!polls!mentioned!above!that!are!produced!for! news!sources,!the!JIPP!polls!ask!respondents!which!party!they!intend!to!vote!for!in!addition! to!their!position!on!a!variety!of!substantive!issues.!!FortyQfive!polls!were!taken!between!

July!27,!2000!and!December!16,!2013,!although!the!specific!substantive!questions!were!not! asked!in!every!poll.!!I!also!use!polls!from!the!National!Election!Studies!(NES)!and!combined! the!two!if!the!same!question!is!asked.112!!The!NES!polls!were!conducted!five!times!during! the!period!under!study,!but!each!poll!is!done!in!a!number!of!waves!so!that!the!total!number! of!individual!polls!is!12.!

! A!problem!with!comparing!the!substantive!poll!questions!to!the!violence!is!that!the! higher!levels!of!extreme!violence!are!somewhat!rare!events!in!the!study!and!they!are!short!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! “Polls | Jeremy’s Knesset Insider,” October 5, 2012, http://knessetjeremy.com/category/knesset/polls/. “Israel Archives,” Angus Reid Institute, accessed December 13, 2014, http://angusreid.org/tag/israel/. “Independent Media Review Analysis IMRA,” Media Resource, (n.d.), http://www.imra.org.il/. 110 “Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll,” Opinion Poll (Hebrew University of Jerusalem: Abba Eban Centre, Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace, n.d.), http://truman.huji.ac.il/?cmd=joint_polls. 111 “Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung - Mission: Democracy!,” Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, accessed December 13, 2014, http://www.kas.de/. Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 112 Asher Arian, “The Israel National Election Studies,” Opinion Poll, (n.d.), http://www.ines.tau.ac.il/asher_arian.html.

! 34! lived.!!JIPP!generally!asks!a!specific!question!intermittently!if!it!is!repeated!across!polls,!so! there!are!fewer!chances!to!compare!change!in!opinion!across!different!levels!of!violence.!!In! order!to!increase!the!number!of!extreme!violent!episodes!in!the!analysis,!I!combine!the! rocket!and!mortar!data!with!the!fatality!data,!given!that!most!of!the!highest!levels!of! fatalities!occurred!from!2000!to!2005!and!the!highest!levels!of!rocket!fire!occurred!after!

2006.!

! The!largest!discounted!sum!of!rockets!and!mortars!over!a!fortyQday!period!before!a!

JIPP!poll!was!2678,!for!the!poll!taken!in!August!of!2006.!!Comparatively,!the!largest! discounted!sum!of!fatalities!over!a!40Qday!period!before!a!JIPP!poll!was!58.!!If!the!fatality! data!and!the!rocket!and!mortar!data!were!added!together,!then!the!result!would!not!differ! significantly!from!a!rocket!and!mortar!index.!!In!order!to!retain!the!impact!of!both!forms!of! violence,!I!standardized!the!values!of!the!fatalities!as!well!as!the!rockets!and!mortars.!!It!is! expected!that!a!spike!in!violence!after!a!long!period!of!calm!will!have!a!larger!impact!than!a! heavy!day!of!violence!after!many!months!of!chronic!violence.!When!standardizing!the! values,!I!use!the!average!and!standard!deviation!for!the!three!years!preceding!each!poll.!!In! this!way,!in!this!section!I!am!looking!at!the!relative!increase!in!violence!compared!to!the! previous!three!years!and!it’s!effect!on!voters!opinions!on!specific!issues.!!!!While!the!effects! of!violence!on!party!preference!tend!to!dissipate!within!90!days,!longQterm!violence!can! shape!respondent’s!views!on!specific!issues.!

! See!Appendix!A!below!for!a!list!of!polls!from!private!companies.!!!

!

!

!

! 35! CHAPTER)4:)PALESTINE) !

! In!this!chapter!I!explore!how!Palestinian!party!preferences!change!under!conditions! of!violence.!!The!conventional!view!holds!that!when!a!population!is!threatened!or!is! subjected!to!higher!levels!of!violence,!the!electorate!shifts!to!the!hardline!parties113.!!Here!I! attempt!to!falsify!this!hypothesis!by!showing!that!the!benefits!to!hardline!parties!are!not!as! large!as!is!normally!thought,!nor!are!the!effects!longQlasting.!!In!addition,!I!discuss!some! evidence!to!suggest!that!an!increase!in!violence!leads!to!a!decrease!in!variance!in!support! for!some!hardline!and!dovish!parties!that!are!large!enough!to!be!held!accountable!for!both! outcomes!of!the!peace!process!as!well!as!retribution!against!Israeli!attacks.!!Put!another! way,!Palestinian!voters!seem!to!be!more!consistent!in!their!preferences!at!higher!levels!of! violence.!

! In!the!first!part!of!the!chapter!I!use!public!opinion!polls!and!data!on!Palestinian! fatalities!to!explore!how!much!the!support!for!Palestinian!parties!is!affected!by!violence! and!how!long!this!affect!lasts.!!Then!I!look!at!patterns!of!decreased!variance!across!the!

Palestinian!parties.!!At!the!end!of!the!chapter!I!suggest!a!possible!reason!for!this!focusing!of! support,!namely!that!public!opinion!on!two!categories!of!issues,!the!peace*process!and! perceptions*of*threat/desire*for*retaliation!are!shifted!in!opposite,!converging!directions!in! response!to!increases!in!violence,!and!that!the!differences!between!how!the!parties!are! associate!with!these!issues!may!explain!why!the!support!for!some!parties!focuses!while!the! support!for!others!does!not.!

!

! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 113 Jaeger et al., “The Struggle for Palestinian Hearts and Minds,” 354.

! 36! AMOUNT!AND!DURATION!OF!BENEFIT!TO!HARDQLINE!PARTIES!

! The!amount!of!benefit!that!hardline!parties!gain!is!not!as!large!as!is!generally! thought!and!it!is!shortQlived.!!In!Table!1,!a!regression!analysis!comparing!the!combined! amount!of!support!in!the!West!Bank!and!Gaza!for!each!Palestinian!party!to!a!range!of! discounted!sums!of!fatalities!from!30!days!up!to!90!days!shows!that!only!three!parties!are! significantly!correlated!with!the!violence!at!the!.05!level,!Hamas,!Fatah,!and!DFLP,!the!latter! having!a!negligible!size!of!increase!in!support.!!Controlling!for!the!period!before!and!after!

Hamas!started!participating!in!elections!in!December!2004,114!for!every!fatality!added!to! the!discounted!sum!over!30!days!prior!to!a!poll,!Hamas!gains!an!estimated!.04%!increase!in! public!support.!!This!can!lead!to!a!large!boost!when!the!fatalities!are!very!high.!For! example,!as!a!result!of!Operation!Protective!Edge!in!2014,!when!Israel!invaded!Gaza,!the! discounted!sum!of!fatalities!over!30!days!increased!from!zero!before!the!June!5th!to!7th!poll! to!337!before!the!August!26th!to!30th!poll.115!!Over!this!period,!the!percentage!of!people! who!support!Hamas!increased!from!20.6%!to!35.4%.!!However,!this!poll!was!taken!during! the!last!day!of!hostilities.!!Polls!taken!during!hostilities!will!inevitably!show!a!much!higher! level!of!support!for!the!party!of!the!chief!executive!as!a!rallying!around!the!flag!–this!same! response!is!found!in!the!Israeli!chapter.!!And!just!one!month!later,!Hamas’s!support! dropped!back!down!to!27.7%!in!the!September!25th!to!27th!poll!and!dropped!further!to!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 114 Hamas’s popularity increased significantly after it began participating in elections. Hamas started participating in local municipal elections in December 2004 and parliamentary elections in January of 2006. It’s average level of support in PCPSR polls taken between November 2000 to December 2004 was 19.3%, while it’s average level of support in polls taken between March 2005 to March 2015 is 22.8%. However, I only control for Hamas’s electoral participation for Hamas’s regression analysis; controlling for this variable did not have a large enough impact on any single other party to warrant including it in those regressions. 115 All of the fatality data comes from B’tselem, except for fatalities that occurred during Operation Protective Edge. Data on the fatalities that occurred during Operation Protective edge was acquired from the Gaza Ministry of Health Emergency Operation Room reports. Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” Al-Aqra, “MOH Emergency Operation Room.”

! 37! 23.8%!in!the!December!3rd!to!6th!poll.!!As!more!time!passes!after!the!fatalities,!the!impact!of! fatalities!on!party!support!continues!to!decrease.!!In!the!regression!estimates!in!Table!1,! after!a!discounted!sum!of!60!days,!each!fatality!increases!Hamas’s!support!by!only!.007%,! and!this!amount!decreases!monotonically!as!the!discounted!sum!of!fatalities!over!longer! periods!of!time!are!used.!

! Fatah!is!the!only!dovish!party!that!loses!a!significant!amount!of!support,!and!this!is! much!less!than!Hamas’s!gain!–it’s!likely!that!Hamas!gains!support!from!people!who! previously!responded!that!they!supported!“none!of!the!above”!(NOTA).!!For!every! additional!fatality!in!the!discounted!sum!of!fatalities!over!30!days,!Fatah!loses!.02%!of!its! support,!and!the!percentage!of!people!who!respond!“none!of!the!above”!decreases!by!

.015%,!however!this!is!not!statistically!significant!at!the!.05!level!for!NOTA!at!any!lagged! period!of!time!before!a!poll,!and!the!coefficient!for!Fatah!does!not!become!significant!at!the!

.05!level!until!the!lag!is!increased!to!70!days.!!The!relationship!between!support!for!DFLP! and!Palestinian!fatalities!also!similarly!does!not!become!significant!until!the!lag!is! increased!to!50!days.!!It!may!be!that!there!is!a!combined!effect!of!a!shortQterm!impact!of! violence!on!voter!preferences!that!dissipates!after!about!6!weeks,!in!conjunction!with!a! longerQterm!accumulation,!so!that!there!is!a!small!lingering!affect!from!violence!over!the! preceding!3!or!6!months:!considering!Hamas!as!an!example,!when!the!discounted!sum!of! fatalities!over!an!entire!year!is!compared!to!the!support!for!Hamas,!the!relationship!is!still! significant!at!the!.021!level,!even!if!each!fatality!only!increases!the!support!for!Hamas!by!

.002%.!

!

!

! 38! Table)4.1.!Combined)party)support)for)Palestinian)parties)in)Gaza)and)the)West)Bank) over)range)of)lagged)days) ) Party! 30!days! 40!days! 50!days! 60!days! 70!days! 80!days! 90!days! support! WB!&! Gaza!&! Gaza! WB! Hamas*! .0413) .0167) .0098) .0075) .0066) .0052) .0042) (.001)) (.001)) (.001)) (.001)) (.001) (.002)) (.003)) Islamic! .0035! .0010! .0001! .0004! .0003! .0002! .0002! Jihad! (.367)! (.533)! (.573)! (.581)! (.595)! (.652)! (.684)! PFLP! Q.0025! Q.0001! Q.0001! Q.0004! Q.0004! Q.0003! Q.0003! (.305)! (.341)! (.340)! (.338)! (.327)! (.355)! (.363)! Fatah! Q.0235! Q.0095! Q.0055! Q.0044! Z.0040) Z.0033) Q.0030! (.064)! (.065)! (.064)! (.052)! (.042)) (.046)) (.056)) PPP! .0003! .0002! .0001! .0001! .0000! .0000! .0000! (.759)! (.820)! (.789)! (.800)! (.951)! (.780)! (.694)! DFLP! .0016! .0007! .0004) .0003) .0003) .0003) .0002) (.074)! (.062)! (.049)) (.034)) (.024)) (.027)) (.033)) Fida! Q.0003! Q.0001! Q.0001! Q.0001! Q.0001! Q.0001! Q.0001! (.446)! (.395)! (.366)! (.327)! (.283)! (.265)! (.263)! Mudabara! Q.0012! Q.0006! Q.0004! Q.0003! Q.0003! Q.0002! Q.0002! (.322)! (.209)! (.163)! (.154)! (.167)! (.216)! (.262)! Third! Q.0001! Q.0004! Q.0002! Q.0002! Q.0002! Q.0002! Q.0002! Way! (.554)! (.522)! (.489)! (.396)! (.276)! (.189)! (.154)! NOTA! Q.0152! Q.0056! Q.0032! Q.0023! Q.0020! Q.0013! Q.0010! (.388)! (.434)! (.445)! (.460)! (.494)! (.566)! (.621)! 1. Polling!data!acquired!from!the!Palestinian!Center!for!Policy!and!Survey!Research.116! 2. The!polls!range!from!July!5,!2001!to!March!19,!2015.!There!are!57!polls!over!this!period!of!time.! There!are!only!42!polls!for!al!Mudabara!(National!Initiative)!because!this!is!a!newer!party,!and!PCPSR! did!not!start!including!them!on!polls!until!March!2005.!Similarly,!there!are!only!21!polls!that!include! the!party!“Third!Way”!as!PCPSR!did!not!include!this!party!in!its!polls!until!June!2010.! 3. Fatality!data!acquired!from!B’tselem!and!the!Palestinian!Ministry!of!Health.117! 4. Fatalities!are!calculated!as!a!discounted!sum.118!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 116 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 117 “Statistics | B’Tselem.” Al-Aqra, “MOH Emergency Operation Room.” 118 The discounted sum of fatalities consists of a sum of the fatalities over x number of days + 30 days of discounted value of each fatality. For the discounted sum of 30 days, the day before the poll is counted at full value. The fatalities that occurred two days before each poll are counted at 29/30 of their total value, with each preceding day reduced in value by 1/30th until the end of the 30 day period. For discounted sums that are longer than this, the first days are counted at full value and the last 30 days are counted at a discounted value. For example, for the discounted sum of 40 days, the fatalities that occur in the first ten days before the poll are counted at full value, and the next 30 days are counted at a decreasing fraction of their value. I use a discounted sum because the cognitive or emotional impact of a fatality that occurred 40 days prior to a poll should have less impact than the period immediately preceding a poll. In their analysis of the impact of violence on the Israeli electorate, Berrebi and Klor found that the affect of violence on voters was larger if the violence occurred closer to an election.

! 39! 5. The!regression!model!for!Hamas!controls!for!a!dummy!variable!distinguishing!between!Hamas’s! level!of!support!before!it!participated!in!elections!and!after!it!participated!in!elections.!The!rest!of!the! regressions!are!a!simple!comparison!of!each!party’s!support!by!the!discounted!sum!of!fatalities.30! !

LONGITUDINAL!VIEW!OF!THE!PERIODS!OF!HIGHEST!PALESTINIAN!FATALITIES!

! In!this!section!I!provide!a!longitudinal!view!of!the!relationship!between!Palestinian! fatalities!and!the!changes!in!support!for!Palestinian!parties.!!I!use!the!Palestinian!Center!for!

Policy!and!Survey!Research!(PCPSR)!polls!for!all!of!the!polls!in!this!section.!119!I!use!the!poll! preceding!and!the!three!polls!after!the!top!seven!most!violent!episodes!that!occurred! between!July!of!2001!and!March!2015!to!see!how!the!support!for!a!selection!of!Palestinian! parties!changes!in!response!to!specific!episodes!of!violence.120!!When!looking!at!these! changes!in!support!after!the!highest!levels!of!violence,!with!the!exception!of!Hamas!it! becomes!apparent!that!most!of!the!parties!do!not!consistently!win!or!lose.!!Hamas!gains! support!from!five!out!of!the!seven!polls!taken!after!a!crisis,!but!in!4!out!of!5!of!the!polls! where!it!receives!an!initial!gain,!the!support!drops!back!down!by!the!next!poll.!!Fatah,!on! the!other!hand,!has!a!less!clearQcut!pattern!of!support!after!a!crisis,!receiving!an!increase!in! support!in!3!out!of!the!7!polls!that!follow!the!highest!levels!of!violence.!

! With!regard!to!the!first!three!violent!periods!covered!here,!it’s!important!to!note! that!the!character!of!the!violence!was!different!during!the!Second!Intifada,!which!began!in!

September!of!2000!and!lasted!until!February!2005.!!When!comparing!figures!1!through!4!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Each PCPSR poll was conducted over an average of 3.7 days. I compare the sum of fatalities up to the day before the first day of polling. My reasoning is that respondents who were contacted on the first day of polling would not have information about fatalities that occurred after their interview. This means the effects of fatalities that occurred after the first day of polling but before the end of the polling period are lost, but the average number of fatalities that occurred during these periods of time was 2.2 fatalities, which is not large enough to have significant bearing on the results. The choice of using a linear decrease over 30 days was an arbitrary choice, and a more refined and tested discounting formula may improve the model.

119 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 120 Ibid.

! 40! to!figures!5!through!12,!the!violent!spikes!were!not!as!high!during!the!Intifada,!but!there! were!more!days!with!a!lowQtoQmedium!level!of!violence.!!This!is!due!in!part!to!Israel’s! withdrawal!of!settlers!from!Gaza!in!September!of!2005,!which!reduced!the!amount!of! contact!between!Palestinians,!settlers,!and!IDF!forces.!!The!construction!of!the!wall! between!Israel!and!the!West!Bank,!which!has!been!an!ongoing!project!since!2003,!has!also! reduced!the!number!of!suicide!bombings!in!Israel,!which!subsequently!leads!to!fewer! reprisals!against!Palestinians.!!Hamas’s!character!as!an!organization!also!changed! significantly!between!the!two!periods.!!Hamas’s!average!level!of!support!since!it!began! participating!in!local!and!parliamentary!elections!in!2005!is!3%!higher!than!it!was!prior!to! participating.30!

In!figure!1,!two!polls!in!a!row!were!taken!during!one!of!the!highest!discounted!sums! of!fatalities!over!the!preceding!40!days,!the!December!19th!to!24th,!2001!poll!taken!when! the!discounted!sum!was!63!fatalities,!and!the!subsequent!May!15th!to!19th,!2002!poll!taken! when!the!discounted!sum!was!70!fatalities.!!Hamas’s!support!before!this!was!16.7%!in!the!

July!2001!poll,!it!slipped!slightly!down!to!16%!and!then!15.5%!in!the!December!and!May! polls.!!In!Figure!3,!the!flashpoint!of!violence!occurred!before!the!June!19Q22,!2003!poll,! when!the!discounted!sum!of!fatalities!was!60.!!Hamas!support!increased!from!17.4%!in!the!

April!3Q7!poll!to!22.2%!in!the!June!19Q22!poll!following!the!flareQup.!!However,!this!dropped! down!to!21%!in!the!October!7Q14!poll!and!further!to!20%!in!the!December!4th!poll!of!the! same!year.!!By!the!December!4Q9,!2004!poll,!Hamas’s!support!had!dropped!back!down!to!

17.6%.!!!

! Fatah!did!better!during!the!Intifada,!in!terms!of!public!support!after!the!highest! periods!of!fatalities.!!In!Figures!1!and!3!and!Tables!2!and!3,!Fatah!either!did!as!well!in!the!

! 41! polls!after!high!points!of!violence!or!it!received!an!increase!in!support.!!In!Figure!2,!we!see! that!PFLP!gained!support!after!violent!episodes!during!this!period,!but!lost!this!support! again!between!the!June!and!October!2003!polls.!!Islamic!Jihad!lost!a!significant!amount!of! support!after!the!violent!periods!in!2001,!2002,!and!2003.!

!

Figure)4.1.!Palestinian)party)support)by)daily)Palestinian)fatality)count,)June)2001) through)August)2002.121!

32 65

30 60 28 55 26 50 24 22 45 20 40 18 35 16 30 14 12 25 10 20 8

15 Palestinian Fatalities 6 10 % Support for each party 4 2 5 0 0

06/25/01 07/09/01 07/23/01 08/06/01 08/20/01 09/03/01 09/17/01 10/01/01 10/15/01 10/29/01 11/12/01 11/26/01 12/10/01 12/24/01 Edate01/08/02 01/22/02 02/05/02 02/19/02 03/05/02 03/19/02 04/02/02 04/16/02 04/30/02 05/14/02 05/28/02 06/11/02 06/25/02 07/09/02 07/23/02 08/06/02 08/20/02

Hamas Fatah Islamic Jihad PFLP PPP Palestinian Fatalities !

1. Polling!data!from!PCPSR.122! 2. Fatality!data!from!B’tselem123! !!

! !

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 121 The y-axis on the left side of the graph refers to the percentage support for each party. The y-axis on the right refers to the number of Palestinians who were killed in a single day. The x-axis refers to the date of both the fatality and the date the poll was conducted (indicated by the dots on each line). The connected lines refer to the percentage of support for each political party over four opinion polls, listed in tables 2 through 7. 122 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 123 “Statistics | B’Tselem.”

! 42! Figure)4.2.!PPP,)PFLP,)&)Islamic)Jihad)support)by)daily)Palestinian)fatality)count,)June) 2001)through)August)2002.!

7 65

6.5 60

6 55

5.5 50

5 45

4.5 40

4 35

3.5 30

3 25

2.5 20

2 15 Palestinian Fatalities

% Support for each1.5 party 10

1 5

.5 0

06/25/01 07/09/01 07/23/01 08/06/01 08/20/01 09/03/01 09/17/01 10/01/01 10/15/01 10/29/01 11/12/01 11/26/01 12/10/01 12/24/01 Edate01/08/02 01/22/02 02/05/02 02/19/02 03/05/02 03/19/02 04/02/02 04/16/02 04/30/02 05/14/02 05/28/02 06/11/02 06/25/02 07/09/02 07/23/02 08/06/02 08/20/02

Islamic Jihad PFLP PPP Palestinian Fatalities !

1. Polling!data!from!PCPSR.124! 2. Fatality!data!from!B’tselem125! !

Table)4.2.!Palestinian)party)support)by)daily)Palestinian)fatality)count,)July)2001) through)August)2002.! Party) Poll)#2,)Jul)5Z Poll)#3)Dec) Poll)#4)May) Poll)#)5)Aug) 9,)2001) 19Z24,)2001) 15Z19,)2002) 18Z21,)2002) Hamas! 16.7! 16! 15.5! 19.8!

Islamic!Jihad! 6.9! 5.4! 4! 3.6!

PFLP! 2.5! 3.3! 3.1! 3.3!

Fatah! 28.5! 28.4! 31.7! 25.6!

PPP! .9! .6! .7! .6!

Discounted! 17! 62.6! 69.6! 43.5! sum!of! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 124 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 125 “Statistics | B’Tselem.”

! 43! fatalities! previous!40! days! !

Figure)4.3.!Palestinian)party)support)by)daily)Palestinian)fatality)count,)March)2003) through)March)2004.!

15 28 14 26 13 24 12 22 11 20 10 18 9 16 8 14 7 12 6 10 5 8 4 Palestinian Fatalities 6 3

% Support for each party 4 2 2 1 0 0

Edat e 03/19/03 04/02/03 04/16/03 04/30/03 05/14/03 05/28/03 06/11/03 06/25/03 07/09/03 07/23/03 08/06/03 08/20/03 09/03/03 09/17/03 10/01/03 10/15/03 10/29/03 11/12/03 11/26/03 12/10/03 12/24/03 01/08/04 01/22/04 02/05/04 02/19/04 03/04/04 03/18/04 04/01/04 Hamas Fatah Islamic Jihad PFLP PPP Palestinian Fatalities !

1. Polling!data!from!PCPSR.126! 2. Fatality!data!from!B’tselem127! !

!

!

!

!

!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 126 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 127 “Statistics | B’Tselem.”

! 44! Figure)4.4.!PPP,)PFLP,)&)Islamic)Jihad)support)by)daily)Palestinian)fatality)count,) March)2003)through)March)2004.!

5.5 15

14 5 13

4.5 12

11 4 10

3.5 9

8 3 7

2.5 6

5 2

4 Palestinian Fatalities

1.5 3 % Support for each party 2 1 1 .5 0

Edat e 03/19/03 04/02/03 04/16/03 04/30/03 05/14/03 05/28/03 06/11/03 06/25/03 07/09/03 07/23/03 08/06/03 08/20/03 09/03/03 09/17/03 10/01/03 10/15/03 10/29/03 11/12/03 11/26/03 12/10/03 12/24/03 01/08/04 01/22/04 02/05/04 02/19/04 03/04/04 03/18/04 04/01/04 Islamic Jihad PFLP PPP Palestinian Fatalities !

1. Polling!data!from!PCPSR.128! 2. Fatality!data!from!B’tselem129! !

Table)4.3.!Palestinian)party)support)by)daily)Palestinian)fatality)count,)March)2003) through)March)2004.! Party) Poll)#7,)Apr) Poll)#8)Jun) Poll)#9)Oct)7Z Poll)#10)Dec) 3Z7,)2003) 19Z22,)2003) 14,)2003) 4Z9,)2003) Hamas! 17.4! 22.2! 20.9! 20.1!

Islamic!Jihad! 5.3! 4.7! 3.7! 4.5!

PFLP! 2.4! 3.2! 2.6! 2.8!

Fatah! 25.8! 25.6! 28.4! 25.3!

PPP! .9! 1! .8! .6!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 128 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 129 “Statistics | B’Tselem.”

! 45! Discounted! 53! 60! 27.4! 25.5! sum!of! fatalities! previous!40! days! !

!

The!next!spike!in!Palestinian!fatalities!was!the!result!of!Operation!Hot!Winter,!which! involved!Israeli!airstrikes!and!a!ground!offensive!into!Gaza!that!lasted!from!February!29!to!

March!3,!2008!Qsee!Figure!5!and!Table!4.!!In!the!Dec!11Q16,!2007!poll!that!preceded!that! conflict,!20.5%!of!Palestinians!reported!that!they!supported!Hamas.!!In!the!March!13Q15,!

2008!poll,!this!jumped!up!to!24.7%,!but!this!dropped!back!down!to!21.7%!and!then!20.4%! in!the!June!5Q7!poll!and!August!28Q30!polls.!!Fatah’s!support!dropped!by!5.3%!between!

December!and!March,!but!recovered!more!slowly!with!its!support!increasing!by!only!1.4%! by!the!June!poll.!Islamic!Jihad’s!support!doubled!from!1.2%!to!2.5%!after!the!conflict,!but! this!dropped!back!down!to!1.6%!by!the!June!poll.!!PFLP!gained!support,!while!PPP!lost! support.!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

! 46! Figure)4.5.!Palestinian)Parties)support)by)daily)Palestinian)fatality)count,)December) 2007)through)August)2008.)Includes)Operation)Hot)Winter.!

36 70 34 65 32 60 30 28 55 26 50 24 45 22 40 20 18 35 16 30 14 25 12 10 20 Palestinian Fatalities 8 15

% Support for each party 6 10 4 2 5 0 0

Edat e 10/29/07 11/12/07 11/26/07 12/10/07 12/24/07 01/08/08 01/22/08 02/05/08 02/19/08 03/04/08 03/18/08 04/01/08 04/15/08 04/29/08 05/13/08 05/27/08 06/10/08 06/24/08 07/08/08 07/22/08 08/05/08 08/19/08 09/02/08 09/16/08 Hamas Fatah Islamic Jihad PFLP PPP Palestinian Fatalities !

1. Polling!data!from!PCPSR.130! 2. Fatality!data!from!B’tselem131! !

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 130 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 131 “Statistics | B’Tselem.”

! 47! Figure)4.6.!PPP,)PFLP,)&)Islamic)Jihad)support)by)daily)Palestinian)fatality)count,) December)2007)through)August)2008.)Includes)Operation)Hot)Winter.)

70 4.5 65

4 60

55 3.5 50

3 45

40 2.5 35

2 30

25 1.5 20 Palestinian Fatalities 1 15

% Support for each party 10 .5 5

0 0

12/24/07 01/01/08 01/08/08 01/15/08 01/22/08 01/29/08 02/05/08 02/12/08 02/19/08 02/26/08 03/04/08 03/11/08 03/18/08 03/25/08 04/01/08 Edate04/08/08 04/15/08 04/22/08 04/29/08 05/06/08 05/13/08 05/20/08 05/27/08 06/03/08 06/10/08 06/17/08 06/24/08 07/01/08 07/08/08 07/15/08 07/22/08 07/29/08 08/05/08

Islamic Jihad PFLP PPP Palestinian Fatalities !

1. Polling!data!from!PCPSR.132! 2. Fatality!data!from!B’tselem133! !

Table)4.4.)Palestinian)party)support)by)daily)Palestinian)fatality)count,)December) 2007)through)August)2008.! Party) Poll)#26,)Dec) Poll)#27)Mar) Poll)#28)Jun) Poll)#29)Aug) 11Z16,)2007) 13Z15,)2008) 5Z7,)2008) 28Z30)2008) Hamas! 20.5! 24.7! 21.7! 20.4!

Islamic!Jihad! 1.2! 2.5! 1.6! 1.6!

PFLP! 3! 3.3! 4! 4.6!

Fatah! 36.2! 30.9! 32.3! 30.8!

PPP! 1.8! .6! .2! .5!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 132 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 133 “Statistics | B’Tselem.”

! 48! Discounted! 36.9! 147! 28! 1.2! sum!of! fatalities! previous!40! days! 1. Polling!data!from!PCPSR.134! 2. Fatality!data!from!B’tselem135! !

In!the!same!year!from!December!27th,!2008!to!January!18,!2009,!Israel!conducted!

Operation!Cast!Lead,!which!involved!another!ground!invasion!of!Gaza!leading!to!1398!

Palestinian!fatalities.136!!I!include!the!polls!before!and!after!this!conflict!even!though!this! conflict!ended!more!than!40!days!before!the!March!5Q7!poll,!which!means!the!discounted! sum!of!fatalities!is!only!7.1.!!It!is!likely!that!Hamas’s!support!was!at!least!2Q3%!higher!in!

January!and!February,!and!if!a!poll!had!been!conducted!within!40!days!of!the!conflict,!we! would!see!a!similar!drop!in!support!in!the!2nd!and!3rd!polls!taken!after!the!conflict.!

Fatah’s!support!in!the!March!5Q7!poll!dropped!.9!points!from!the!poll!taken!before! the!conflict!and!was!probably!also!lower!in!January!and!February.!Fatah!then!recovered!to! a!level!2.6%!higher!in!the!May!21Q23!poll!than!it!had!before!the!conflict.!!Islamic!Jihad’s! support!mirrored!the!quick!rise!and!fall!that!it!experienced!after!Operation!Hot!Summer,! although!with!a!smaller!effect!due!to!the!longer!period!of!time!after!the!conflict!that!the!poll! was!taken.!!PFLP!gained!a!.6%!boost!in!support!after!the!conflict,!then!returned!to!its!preQ conflict!level!by!the!subsequent!poll!in!May.!!PPP!lost!support!after!the!conflict.!

!

!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 134 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 135 “Statistics | B’Tselem.” 136 Ibid.

! 49! Figure)4.7.!Palestinian)party)support)by)daily)Palestinian)fatality)count,)November) 2008)through)August)2009.)Includes)Operation)Cast)Lead.!

34 360 32 340 30 320 300 28 280 26 260 24 240 22 220 20 200 18 180 16 160 14 140 12 120 10 100 8 80 Palestinian Fatalities 6

% Support for each party 60 4 40 2 20 0 0

Edat e 10/28/08 11/11/08 11/25/08 12/09/08 12/23/08 01/08/09 01/22/09 02/05/09 02/19/09 03/05/09 03/19/09 04/02/09 04/16/09 04/30/09 05/14/09 05/28/09 06/11/09 06/25/09 07/09/09 07/23/09 08/06/09 08/20/09 09/03/09 Hamas Fatah Islamic Jihad PFLP PPP Palestinian Fatalities !

1. Polling!data!from!PCPSR.137! 2. Fatality!data!from!B’tselem138! !

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 137 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 138 “Statistics | B’Tselem.”

! 50! Figure)4.8.)PPP,)PFLP,)&)Islamic)Jihad)support)by)daily)Palestinian)fatality)count,) November)2008)through)August)2009.)Includes)Operation)Cast)Lead.!

5 360 340 4.5 320 300 4 280 260 3.5 240 220 3 200 180 2.5 160 140 2 120 100 Palestinian Fatalities 1.5 80

% Support for each party 60 1 40 20 .5 0

Edat e 10/28/08 11/11/08 11/25/08 12/09/08 12/23/08 01/08/09 01/22/09 02/05/09 02/19/09 03/05/09 03/19/09 04/02/09 04/16/09 04/30/09 05/14/09 05/28/09 06/11/09 06/25/09 07/09/09 07/23/09 08/06/09 08/20/09 09/03/09 Islamic Jihad PFLP PPP Palestinian Fatalities !

1. Polling!data!from!PCPSR.139! 2. Fatality!data!from!B’tselem140! !

Table)4.5.!Palestinian)party)support)by)daily)Palestinian)fatality)count,)December) 2007)through)August)2008.! Party) Poll)#30,)Dec) Poll)#31)Mar) Poll)#32)May) Poll)#33)Aug) 3Z5,)2008) 5Z7,)2009) 21Z23,)2009) 13Z15)2009) Hamas! 20.4! 23! 23.9! 18.9!

Islamic!Jihad! 1.5! 2.1! 1.3! 1.8!

PFLP! 3.9! 4.5! 3.6! 4.7!

Fatah! 31.7! 30.8! 34.3! 33.7!

PPP! 1! .6! .7! .9!

Discounted! 12.1! 7.1*! 3! 1! sum!of! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 139 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 140 “Statistics | B’Tselem.”

! 51! fatalities! previous!40! days! 1. *!This!poll!was!taken!after!Operation!Cast!Lead,!which!resulted!in!1398!Palestinian!casualties.! However,!I!use!a!discounted!sum!of!40!days!prior!to!each!poll.!40!days!before!the!March!5th!poll! was!January!24th,!which!was!a!week!after!the!war!had!ended.!! ! ! The!next!violent!episode,!Operation!Pillar!of!Defense,!lasted!from!November!14th!to! the!22nd!of!2012.!!The!IDF!struck!1500!targets141!resulting!in!169!Palestinian!casualties.142!!

In!Figure!9!and!Table!6,!we!see!that!support!for!Hamas!increased!9.5%!between!the!

September!13Q15,!2012!poll!and!the!December!13Q15!poll!taken!after!the!conflict.!!

Consistent!with!the!pattern!of!a!quick!rise!and!fall,!this!support!dropped!5.9%!by!the!March!

28Q30!poll.!!Fatah!surprisingly!gained!support!after!the!conflict!and!remained!relatively! high.!!Khalil!Shikaki!suggests!that!Fatah’s!positive!showing!in!this!poll!may!be!due!in!part!to!

President!Mahmoud!Abbas’s!successful!bid!to!apply!for!nonQmember!status!at!the!United!

Nations!and!to!the!end!of!protests!over!economic!conditions.143!!In!keeping!with!the! somewhat!inconsistent!results!for!Islamic!Jihad,!its!support!dropped!.6%!to!1.8%!in!the!

December!poll!and!remained!low!until!the!end!of!2013.!!PFLP’s!support!dropped!from!4.1%! before!the!conflict!to!3%!after!the!conflict,!only!to!rebound!back!to!5%!in!the!second!poll! after!the!conflict.!!PPP!gained!an!uncharacteristic!boost!from!.6%!before!the!poll!to!1%! after!the!poll.!

!

! !

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 141 “Operation Pillar of Defense: Summary of Events.” 142 “Statistics | B’Tselem.” 143 Khalil Shikaki, “Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (46),” Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, December 13, 2012, http://pcpsr.org/en/node/328.

! 52! Figure)4.9.!Palestinian)party)support)by)daily)Palestinian)fatality)count,)September) 2012)through)June)2013.)Includes)Operation)Pillar)of)Defense.!

32 34 30 32 28 30 26 28 24 26 24 22 22 20 20 18 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 10 10 8

8 Palestinian Fatalities 6 6

% Support for each party 4 4 2 2 0 0

08/19/12 09/02/12 09/16/12 09/30/12 10/14/12 10/28/12 11/11/12 11/25/12 12/09/12 12/23/12 Edate01/08/13 01/22/13 02/05/13 02/19/13 03/05/13 03/19/13 04/02/13 04/16/13 04/30/13 05/14/13 05/28/13 06/11/13 06/25/13

Hamas Fatah Islamic Jihad PFLP PPP Palestinian Fatalities !

1. Polling!data!from!PCPSR.144! 2. Fatality!data!from!B’tselem145! !

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 144 Khalil Shikaki, “Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (46),” Text, Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, (December 13, 2012), http://pcpsr.org/en/node/328. 145 “Statistics | B’Tselem.”

! 53! Figure)4.10.!PPP,)PFLP,)&)Islamic)Jihad)support)by)daily)Palestinian)fatality)count,) September)2012)through)June)2013.))Includes)Operation)Pillar)of)Defense.!!!

5 34 32 4.5 30 28 4 26

3.5 24 22 3 20 18 2.5 16

2 14 12 1.5 10 8 Palestinian Fatalities 1 % Support for each party 6 4 .5 2 0 0

Edat e 08/19/12 09/02/12 09/16/12 09/30/12 10/14/12 10/28/12 11/11/12 11/25/12 12/09/12 12/23/12 01/08/13 01/22/13 02/05/13 02/19/13 03/05/13 03/19/13 04/02/13 04/16/13 04/30/13 05/14/13 05/28/13 06/11/13 06/25/13 Islamic Jihad PFLP PPP Palestinian Fatalities !

1. Polling!data!from!PCPSR.146! 2. Fatality!data!from!B’tselem147! !

Table)4.6.!Palestinian)party)support)by)daily)Palestinian)fatality)count,)September) 2012)through)June)2013.! Party) Poll)#45,)Sep) Poll)#46)Dec) Poll)#47)Mar) Poll)#48)Jun) 13Z15,)2012) 13Z15,)2012) 28Z30,)2013) 13Z15,)2013) Hamas! 16! 25.5! 18.6! 21!

Islamic!Jihad! 2.4! 1.8! 1.9! 1.8!

PFLP! 4.1! 3! 5! 3.9!

Fatah! 28.1! 28.9! 30.8! 29.8!

PPP! .6! 1! .4! .3!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 146 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 147 “Statistics | B’Tselem.”

! 54! Discounted! 6! 97.9! 1.5! 0! sum!of! fatalities! previous!40! days! !

! Finally,!the!most!recent!violent!episode,!Operation!Protective!Edge,!lasted!from!July!

8th!to!August!26th,!2014.!Israel!conducted!airstrikes!and!a!ground!invasion!into!Gaza,!which! resulted!in!2100!Palestinian!fatalities.148!This!was!the!period!with!the!most!Palestinian! fatalities!during!this!study,!and!the!polling!data!is!somewhat!exceptional!in!that!the!poll! was!conducted!on!the!first!day!of!the!ceaseQfire,!so!the!violence!continued!through!the! second!day!of!polling.!!As!a!result,!the!percentage!support!for!Hamas!was!the!second! highest!level!in!the!15!years!of!polls!reviewed!here,!second!only!to!the!March!2006!poll! taken!when!Hamas!first!participated!in!parliamentary!elections.!!The!percentage!of!people! who!support!Hamas!increased!from!20.6%!in!the!June!5Q7,!2014!poll!when!the!discounted! sum!of!fatalities!over!the!preceding!40!days!was!only!2.3,!up!to!35.4%!in!the!August!26Q30! poll.!!In!spite!of!this!dramatic!increase!in!support,!the!support!for!Hamas!dropped!7.7%!one! month!later!in!the!September!25Q27!poll!and!dropped!further!to!23.8%!in!the!December!3Q

6!poll.!!While!Hamas!gained!almost!15%!as!a!result!of!the!conflict!in!the!first!poll,!Fatah! only!lost!7.1%!of!its!support,!recovering!2%!a!month!later!in!the!September!poll!and! returning!to!it’s!preQconflict!level!at!29.7%!by!the!March!19Q21,!2015!poll.!!Islamic!Jihad! gained!a!modest!.6%!from!the!conflict.!PFLP!lost!support!for!the!first!and!second!polls!after! the!conflict.!!PPP!gained!a!small!increase!of!.2%!in!the!first!poll!after!the!conflict.!

! !!

! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 148 Rudoren, “50 Days of War Leave Israelis and Palestinians Only More Entrenched.”

! 55! Figure)4.11.!Palestinian)party)support)by)daily)Palestinian)fatality)count,)May)2014) through)April)2015.)Includes)Operation)Protective)Edge.!

36 170 34 160 32 150 30 140 28 130 26 120 24 110 22 100 20 90 18 80 16 70 14 12 60 10 50

8 40 Palestinian Fatalities 6 30 % Support for each party 4 20 2 10 0 0

05/21/14 06/04/14 06/18/14 07/02/14 07/16/14 07/30/14 08/13/14 08/27/14 09/10/14 09/24/14 10/08/14 Edate10/22/14 11/05/14 11/19/14 12/03/14 12/17/14 01/01/15 01/15/15 01/29/15 02/12/15 02/26/15 03/12/15 03/26/15 04/09/15

Hamas Fatah Islamic Jihad PFLP PPP Palestinian Fatalities !

1.!Polling!data!from!PCPSR.149! 2.!Fatality!data!from!B’tselem150! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 149 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 150 “Statistics | B’Tselem.”

! 56! Figure)4.12.!PPP,)PFLP,)&)Islamic)Jihad)support)by)daily)Palestinian)fatality)count,) May)2014)through)April)2015.)Includes)Operation)Protective)Edge.)

3.8 170 3.6 160 3.4 150 3.2 140 3 130 2.8 120 2.6 110 2.4 100 2.2 90 2 80 1.8 70 1.6 60 1.4 50

1.2 40 Palestinian Fatalities 1

% Support for each party 30 .8 20 .6 10 .4 0

05/21/14 06/04/14 06/18/14 07/02/14 07/16/14 07/30/14 08/13/14 08/27/14 09/10/14 09/24/14 10/08/14 Edate10/22/14 11/05/14 11/19/14 12/03/14 12/17/14 01/01/15 01/15/15 01/29/15 02/12/15 02/26/15 03/12/15 03/26/15 04/09/15

Islamic Jihad PFLP PPP Palestinian Fatalities !

1.!Polling!data!from!PCPSR151!and!from!the!Gaza!Ministry!of!Health152! 2.!Fatality!data!from!B’tselem153! !

Table)4.7.!Palestinian)party)support)by)daily)Palestinian)fatality)count,)June)2014) through)August)2014.! Party) Poll)#52,)Jun) Special)Poll) Poll)#53)Sep) Poll)#)54)Dec) 5Z7,)2014) Aug)26Z30,) 25Z27,)2014) 3Z6,)2014) 2014) Hamas! 20.6! 35.4! 27.7! 23.8!

Islamic!Jihad! 2.2! 2.8! 2.5! 3.8!

PFLP! 3.8! 2.9! 2.4! 3.7!

Fatah! 31.7! 24.6! 26.5! 25.1!

PPP! .5! .7! .4! .7!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 151 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 152 Al-Aqra, “MOH Emergency Operation Room.” 153 “Statistics | B’Tselem.”

! 57! Discounted! 2.3! 858.5! 44.2! 1.9! sum!of! fatalities! previous!40! days! !

Overall,!Hamas!is!the!biggest!winner!after!periods!of!high!fatalities!with!Israel.!!It! received!an!increase!in!support!in!5!of!the!7!polls!taken!directly!after!the!highest!fatality! periods.!!PFLP!and!surprisingly!also!PPP!received!an!increase!in!support!in!4!out!of!7,!while!

Fatah,!and!also!surprisingly!Islamic!Jihad,!did!the!worst,!benefiting!from!3!out!of!7!of!the! first!polls!taken!after!the!highest!fatality!periods.!!For!all!of!the!parties!except!Islamic!Jihad,!

5!out!of!7!of!the!violent!episodes!saw!a!reversal!in!the!second!poll!after!the!conflict,!so!that! an!increase!in!support!was!followed!by!a!decrease!and!vice!versa.!!This!was!the!case!for!

Islamic!Jihad!in!4!out!of!7!of!the!violent!episodes,!because!during!the!Second!Intifada!

Islamic!Jihad!lost!support!more!consistently.!

!

CHANGES!IN!VARIANCE!

! In!this!section!I!provide!some!evidence!that!while!militant!Palestinian!parties! benefit!from!an!average!increase!in!public!support!as!the!number!of!Palestinian!fatalities! increases!and!more!moderate!parties!suffer!an!average!loss!of!public!support,!the!amount! of!support!becomes!more!consistent!at!higher!levels!of!violence!for!most!parties.!!I!begin!by! comparing!larger!blocks!of!parties!and!then!look!at!patterns!of!support!for!individual! parties.!

! When!the!Palestinian!parties!are!divided!into!two!blocks,!the!variance!of!support!for! both!the!militant!block!and!the!more!moderate!block!decreases!as!violence!increases.!!In!

! 58! Figure!1.!the!changes!in!variance!in!the!level!of!public!support!between!the!two!blocks!are! compared.!!The!percentages!of!public!support!for!Fatah,!PPP,!PFLP,!and!DFLP!were!added! together!to!form!the!moderate!block!and!the!percentages!of!support!for!Hamas!and!Islamic!

Jihad!were!added!together!to!form!the!militant!block.!!The!sums!of!these!two!groups!were! then!standardized!and!the!variance!was!calculated!for!all!of!the!standardized!aggregated! polls!taken!when!the!discounted!sum!of!fatalities!over!the!previous!40!days!was!between! zero!and!45.154!!The!variance!was!also!calculated!for!the!polls!taken!when!the!discounted! sum!of!fatalities!was!between!45!and!90!and!again!for!the!polls!when!the!sum!of!fatalities! was!over!90.!!In!Figure!1,!the!yQaxis!represents!the!standardized!variance!of!each!block!for! opinion!poll!responses!to!the!question,!“Which!political!party!do!you!support?”155!156!!The! xQaxis!refers!to!the!discounted!sum!of!fatalities!over!the!preceding!40!days.!!For!the!militant! block!the!variance!decreased!from!1.1!to!.5!and!for!the!moderate!block!the!variance! decreased!from!1!to!.4!when!the!sum!of!fatalities!increased!to!between!45!and!90!and!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 154 The discounted sum of fatalities consists of a sum of the fatalities over the previous 40 days prior to each poll. The first ten days before the poll are counted at full value. For each additional day prior to this, the number of fatalities on that day are discounted [((n-10)/30)*x] where n= the number of days prior the poll and x=the number of fatalities on that day, so the 11th day prior to the poll is counted at 29/30 of its full value and the twelfth day is counted at 28/30 of its full value. I use a discounted sum because the cognitive or emotional impact of a fatality that occurred 40 days prior to a poll should have less impact than the period immediately preceding a poll. In their analysis of the impact of violence on the Israeli electorate, Berrebi and Klor found that the affect of violence on voters was larger if the violence occurred closer to an election. Each PCPSR poll was conducted over an average of 3.7 days. I compare the sum of fatalities up to and including the day of the first day of polling. My reasoning is that respondents who were contacted on the first day of polling would not have information about fatalities that occurred after their interview. This means the effects of fatalities that occurred after the first day of polling but before the end of the polling period are lost, but the average number of fatalities that occurred during these periods of time was 2.2 fatalities, which is not large enough to have significant bearing on the results. Berrebi and Klor, “Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism?,” 294–295. 155 The standardized values of the polls are used because the average level of support is higher for the moderate parties than for the militant parties and the variable of interest in this graph is the change in variance rather than the relative size of the blocks of parties. 156 The polls were obtained from two public opinion polling centers: the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, PCPSR, and the Jerusalem Media and Communication Center. Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” JMCC, “Public Opinion Poll.”

! 59! decreased!further!to!.4!and!.1!respectively!when!the!fatalities!were!above!90.!!See!Table!1! for!the!values.!!

!

Figure)4.13.!Variance)of)Two)Blocks)of)Parties)Compared)to)Discounted)Sum)of)

VarianceDiscountedSource PCPSR of sumstandardized JMCC fatalities supportprevious orfor 40 trust HamasFatah days and + Islamic Nationalist Jihad parties .1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.911.1050100150200250300350400450500550600650700750800 Fatalities)Over)Previous)40)Days.1 !!

1.1

1

.9

.8

.7

.6

.5

.4

.3

.2

.1 Variance of standardized support or trust 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 Discounted sum fatalities previous 40 days

Variance of standardized support for Hamas + Islamic Jihad Variance of standardized support for Fatah and Nationalist parties Source PCPSR JMCC !

1. Fatality!data!obtained!from!B’tselem.157!!! 2. Dates!of!polls!range!from!21!December!2000!to!20!March!2014.158!!! 3. Polls!obtained!from!PCPSR159!and!JMCC160.!! 4. Number!of!observations:!Hamas)+)Islamic)Jihad![0!

Figures!2!and!3!provide!a!more!visual!representation!of!the!same!data!using! scatterplots.!!In!these!graphs,!the!yQaxis!represents!the!raw!sum!of!support!for!all!of!the!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 157 “Statistics | B’Tselem.” 158 The remainder of the analysis in this chapter was done before the newest polls were added, so the range is slightly shorter. 159 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 160 JMCC, “Public Opinion Poll.”

! 60! parties!in!the!block,!in!contrast!to!the!standardized!values!in!Figure!1.161!!The!xQaxis! represents!the!same!discounted!sum!of!fatalities!over!the!preceding!40!days.!!Each!point!on! the!graph!represents!a!public!opinion!poll;!a!date!stamp!provides!the!month!and!year!of!the! poll.!!What’s!striking!about!this!view!of!the!data!is!that!even!though!the!dates!of!the!polls! that!were!taken!at!the!highest!levels!of!violence!are!as!far!as!10!years!apart,!for!both!blocks! the!level!of!support!is!relatively!centered!on!the!average!of!all!the!polls!for!that!block.!!The! average!for!all!of!the!polls!for!the!militant!parties!is!23.8.!The!combined!percentage!of!

Palestinians!who!supported!either!Hamas!or!Islamic!Jihad!was!about!27%!for!the!single! poll!taken!when!the!discounted!sum!of!fatalities!was!about!98,!about!27%!when!the!sum! was!147,!23.5%!when!the!sum!was!196!and!30.5%!when!the!discounted!sum!of!fatalities! was!about!803.!Those!polls!were!taken!December!2012,!March!2008,!March!2002,!and!

January!of!2009.!!These!polls!are!almost!all!above!average,!which!is!consistent!with!the! view!that!hardline!blocks!benefit!from!increased!violence,!but!these!polls!are!much!closer! to!average!than!the!maximum!level!of!support!of!41%!in!2006.!!The!2002!poll!is!lower,!but! this!is!due!more!to!Hamas’s!status!at!that!time!in!which!they!had!not!yet!participated!in! elections.!!With!that!in!mind,!Hamas’s!level!of!public!support!is!notably!consistent!when!the! violence!is!extremely!high.!

The!level!of!public!support!for!the!moderate!Palestinian!parties!follows!the!same!trend! toward!the!overall!average!level!of!support!at!the!higher!levels!of!violence,!albeit!below!the! average.!!The!average!level!of!combined!support!for!Fatah,!PFLP,!PPP,!and!DFLP!for!all!of! the!polls!taken!is!37%.!!The!four!polls!taken!when!the!discounted!sum!of!fatalities!was! highest,!at!approximately!63,!70,!98,!and!147!fatalities!over!the!preceding!40!days!show!a! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 161 The raw values are used here instead of the standardized values because the two blocks are not being compared in the same graph.

! 61! level!of!support!for!the!moderate!block!at!35%,!36%,!33%,!and!35%,!all!below!average!but! much!closer!to!the!average!than!the!minimum!of!28%!or!the!maximum!of!48%.!!And!the! consistency!of!these!values!spans!12!years!of!polls,!from!December!of!2000,!to!May!2002,!

December!of!2012,!and!March!of!2008,!respectively.!!

!

Figure)4.14.)Percentage)of)Palestinians)who)Support)or)Trust)Hamas)or)Islamic)Jihad)

DiscountedSource: PCPSR sum JMCC of fatalities prev 40 days

% of Palestinians who support or trust Hamas or Islamic Jihad 1416182022242628303234363840420105060708090100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240-800 03/0812/1205/0212/0106/0309/0403/0404/0309/0608/0212/0406/0706/0611/0212/0712/0609/0706/0406/0810/0303/1212/0303/0607/0307/0109/1112/0806/1009/1012/0506/1203/1409/0506/0503/0503/0912/1109/1203/0703/1112/1012/1309/1305/0903/1003/1308/0806/1108/0912/0906/1301/0903/0212/0012/0209/0211/0709/0104/0808/0706/0104/0102/0604/1111/0811/1110/0910/1004/1006/0905/0505/1105/12 Compared)to)the)Discounted)Sum)of)Fatalities)Over)Previous)40)Days03/08 )

42 02/06 40

03/06 38

36

06/06 34

06/05 32 09/05 12/0606/0609/06 12/05 09/06 01/09 30 06/04 03/07 28 10/03 04/03 03/05 12/12 03/08 05/02 06/03 03/07 07/03 09/0112/01 26 12/0209/04 05/0903/09 12/0310/0309/07 03/04 09/02 24 07/0106/0108/07 12/0406/07 05/05 06/08 08/02 03/02 06/1303/1012/0504/0112/04 12/0404/03 12/1312/11 03/12 12/00 22 12/0908/0812/08 11/07 06/09 12/07 12/01 09/1312/10 08/0903/1306/1206/10 04/08 11/02 20 05/1210/0911/11 12/04 09/10 05/02 06/1103/1411/0809/11 03/1109/12 18 05/11 04/10 04/11 16 09/1010/10 14 - - - % of Palestinians who support or trust Hamas or Islamic Jihad 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 800 Discounted sum of fatalities prev 40 days Source: PCPSR JMCC !

1. Fatality!data!obtained!from!B’tselem.162!!! 2. Dates!of!polls!range!from!21!December!2000!to!20!March!2014.!!! 3. Polls!obtained!from!PCPSR163!and!JMCC164.!! 4. Number!of!observations:!Hamas)+)Islamic)Jihad![0!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 162 “Statistics | B’Tselem.” 163 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 164 JMCC, “Public Opinion Poll.”

! 62!

Figure)4.15.)Percentage)of)Palestinians)who)Support)or)Trust)Fatah)or)a)Nationalist)

DiscountedSource: JMCC Sum & PCPSRof Fatalities Previous 40 Days

% of Palestinians who support or trust Fatah or other Nationalist Parties 282930313233343536373839404142434445464748051015202550556065707580859095100105110115120125130135140145 03/0812/1205/0212/0106/0309/0403/0404/0309/0608/0212/0406/0706/0611/0212/0712/0609/0706/0406/0810/0303/1212/0303/0607/0307/0109/1112/0806/1009/1012/0506/1203/1409/0506/0503/0503/0912/1109/1203/0703/1112/1012/1309/1305/0903/1003/1308/0806/1108/0912/0906/1312/0002/0610/1005/05 Party)Compared)to)the)Discounted)Sum)of)Fatalities)Over)Previous)40)Days03/08 )

48 12/05 12/04 47

46 12/04 06/05 45 09/10 12/04 44 12/04 43 09/05 42 12/05 12/07 41 05/05 09/07 12/11 40 10/10 08/09 09/11 39 03/12 06/06 05/0903/05 03/06 06/06

38 12/09 06/10 12/06 37 03/11 06/08 09/06 08/0803/1312/10 12/08 06/1112/1303/0906/12 05/02 36 02/06 09/06 35 12/00 03/08 03/0703/14 06/07 06/13 09/10 34 03/1009/13 09/12 12/01 33 12/12 07/01 10/03 09/04 32 06/04 11/02 31 06/03 03/04 30 08/02 12/03 04/03 29 28 07/03 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 Discounted Sum of Fatalities Previous 40 Days

% of Palestinians who support or trust Fatah or other Nationalist Parties Source: JMCC & PCPSR !

1. Fatality!data!obtained!from!B’tselem.165!!! 2. Dates!of!polls!range!from!21!December!2000!to!20!March!2014.!!! 3. Polls!obtained!from!PCPSR166!and!JMCC167.! 4. Fatah)+)Nationalist)Parties)(PPP,)PFLP,)DFLP)![0!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 165 “Statistics | B’Tselem.” 166 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 167 JMCC, “Public Opinion Poll.”

! 63! Table)4.8.)Variance)and)Average)of)Support)&)Trust)for)Islamic)Parties)and)Fatah)+) Nationalist)Parties)by)Discounted)Sum)of)Fatalities)Over)Previous)40)Days)

Discounted)sum)of) x)<)45! 45)≤)x)<) 90)≤)x! fatalities! 90!

Variance)for)Militant) 24.7!(1.1)! 11.5!(.5)! 8.2!(.4)! Parties1)(standardized) variance)!

Variance)for)Fatah)&) 19.9!(1.0)! 7.6!(.4)! 1.8!(.1)! Nationalist)Parties2) (standardized)variance)!

Average)for)Militant) 23.7! 24.8! 27.1! parties!

Average)for)Fatah)&) 37.7! 33.1! 34.2! nationalist)parties!

Number)of)observations) 71! 10! 4! for)Militant)Parties! Number)of)observations) for)Fatah)&)Nationalist) 52! 8! 2! 1. Militant!parties:!Hamas!&!Islamic!Jihad! 2. Fatah!&!nationalist!parties:!PFLP,!PPP,!DFLP! 3. Polls!obtained!from!PCPSR168!and!JMCC169! 4. Dates!of!polls!range!from!21!December!2000!to!20!March!2014! 5. Fatality!data!obtained!from!B’tselem170! !

INDIVIDUAL!PARTIES!

! In!this!section!I!compare!the!changes!in!variance!between!the!two!largest!parties,!

Fatah!and!Hamas.!!As!can!be!seen!in!Figures!4!&!5!and!Table!2,!the!variance!decreases!for! both!parties!as!the!number!of!fatalities!increases.!!The!variance!is!20.3!for!the!support!for!

Fatah!from!all!of!the!polls!taken!when!the!discounted!sum!of!fatalities!over!the!previous!40! days!was!below!45!fatalities.!!The!variance!decreases!to!11!for!the!polls!taken!when!the! sum!of!fatalities!was!between!45!and!90,!and!the!variance!remains!relatively!flat!at!10.6!for!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 168 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 169 JMCC, “Public Opinion Poll.” 170 “Statistics | B’Tselem.”

! 64! the!polls!taken!when!the!sum!of!fatalities!was!above!90.!!The!variance!for!Hamas!follows! the!same!trend!decreasing!from!23.1!to!15!to!9!as!the!discounted!sum!of!fatalities!increases! to!above!45!and!90.!Other!parties!that!follow!a!similar!pattern!of!reduced!variance!are!

PFLP,!Third!Way,!and!Fida.!!The!nationalist!parties,!PPP!and!DFLP!do!not!follow!the!trend! of!reduced!variance,!unless!they!are!aggregated!as!a!nationalist!block!of!PFLP,!PPP,!and!

DFLP,!in!which!case!they!do!show!reduced!variance!as!violence!increases.!

! When!comparing!the!level!of!support!for!Fatah!and!Hamas!when!the!number!of! fatalities!is!at!the!highest!levels,!Hamas’s!support!is!above!the!average!of!all!the!polls!taken! and!Fatah’s!support!is!below!average,!but!similar!to!the!pattern!found!when!the!two!blocks! are!compared!in!aggregate,!Hamas’s!support!and!Fatah’s!support!is!closer!to!their!average! than!to!their!maximums!or!minimums.!!So,!not!only!does!the!variance!decrease!as!the! violence!increases,!but!support!for!both!parties!converges!to!a!somewhat!predictable!level.!!!

However,!the!pattern!of!support!for!Islamic!Jihad!is!different,!as!is!the!pattern!of!support! for!Islamic!and!nationalist!independents.!!In!the!last!section,!I!will!suggest!some!possible! reasons!for!the!decrease!in!variance,!the!tendency!for!support!to!move!to!the!average!level! and!the!reason!why!some!parties!follow!this!trend!while!others!do!not.!!In!the!next!section!I! will!discuss!parties!that!do!not!follow!this!trend.!

!

) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) )

! 65!

Figure)4.16.)Percentage)of)Palestinians)who)Support)or)Trust)Fatah)Compared)to)the)

%DiscountedSource of Palestinians PCPSR Sum JMCC of who Fatalities support Prev or trust 40 Days Fatah

22242628303234363840424446010205060708090100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240-800 03/0812/1205/0212/0106/0309/0403/0404/0309/0608/0212/0406/0706/0611/0212/0712/0609/0706/0406/0810/0303/1212/0303/0607/0307/0109/1112/0806/1009/1012/0506/1203/1409/0506/0503/0503/0912/1109/1203/0703/1112/1012/1309/1305/0903/1003/1308/0806/1108/0912/0906/1301/0903/0212/0012/0209/0211/0709/0104/0808/0706/0104/0102/0604/1111/0811/1110/1210/0911/1310/1004/1004/1406/0905/0505/1105/12 Discounte03/08 d)Sum)of)Fatalities)Over)Previous)40)Days)

46 12/05 44

42 04/14 12/04 06/05 09/10 12/04 40 12/0411/0712/04 11/11 05/1203/1305/1112/05 09/05 38

10/12 36 05/0504/1012/11 12/07 09/07 10/1003/05 06/09 04/0106/01 12/12 10/0906/1003/0608/07 05/09 09/1104/11 34 08/09 06/0606/06 03/12 09/06 06/1112/09 09/02 04/08 06/0812/06 12/00 32 11/1312/08 05/02 03/0712/1011/08 03/1308/0803/0906/12 03/08 03/1109/1002/06 09/06 03/1012/13 06/07 30 06/13 03/02 03/07 10/0309/01 03/14 12/12 09/13 07/0110/03 09/0412/01 28 09/12 12/02 06/04 05/02 11/02 03/04 12/01 26 04/03 01/09 12/03 08/02 06/03 07/03 24

% of Palestinians who support or trust Fatah 04/03 22 - - - 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 800 Discounted Sum of Fatalities Prev 40 Days Source PCPSR JMCC !

1. Polls!obtained!from!PCPSR171!and!JMCC172! 2. Dates!of!polls!range!from!21!December!2000!to!20!March!2014! 3. Fatality!data!obtained!from!B’tselem173! ! ! ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) )

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 171 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 172 JMCC, “Public Opinion Poll.” 173 “Statistics | B’Tselem.”

! 66!

Figure)4.17.)Percentage)of)Palestinians)who)Support)or)Trust)Hamas)Compared)to)

%DiscountedSource of Palestinians PCPSR Sum JMCC of who Fatalities support Prev or trust 40 Days Hamas

1214161820222426283032343638400105060708090100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240-800 03/0812/1205/0212/0106/0309/0403/0404/0309/0608/0212/0406/0706/0611/0212/0712/0609/0706/0406/0810/0303/1212/0303/0607/0307/0109/1112/0806/1009/1012/0506/1203/1409/0506/0503/0503/0912/1109/1203/0703/1112/1012/1309/1305/0903/1003/1308/0806/1108/0912/0906/1301/0903/0212/0012/0209/0211/0709/0104/0808/0706/0104/0102/0604/1111/0811/1110/1210/0911/1310/1004/1004/1406/0905/0505/1105/12 the)Discounted)Sum)of)Fatalities)Over)Previous)40)Days03/08 !

40

02/06 38

03/06 36

34 06/06 32

06/05 30 09/06 12/06 06/0609/06

28 12/05 01/09 09/05 03/07 26 12/12 12/12 03/0703/05 03/08 24 05/09 06/04 03/09 10/03 05/02 04/0309/0406/03 22 03/10 08/0706/08 06/07 07/03 12/01 06/1312/09 10/0309/0709/0109/02 08/0812/08 03/12 12/07 03/04 20 12/03 12/0412/0412/02 12/1305/0512/11 11/07 08/02 03/02 03/1309/13 12/00 08/0903/1312/1006/0906/1011/1106/0112/04 05/1206/1112/05 18 10/0906/1209/1009/1104/08 03/14 04/01 12/04 04/03 05/1103/1104/1410/1211/0807/01 11/02 16 09/1211/13 12/01 05/02 04/11 04/10 14 09/1010/10 % of Palestinians who support or trust Hamas 12 - - - 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 800 Discounted Sum of Fatalities Prev 40 Days Source PCPSR JMCC !

1. Polls!obtained!from!PCPSR174!and!JMCC175! 2. Dates!of!polls!range!from!21!December!2000!to!20!March!2014! 3. Fatality!data!obtained!from!B’tselem176! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ) ) ) ) ) )

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 174 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 175 JMCC, “Public Opinion Poll.” 176 “Statistics | B’Tselem.”

! 67! Table)4.9.)Variance)and)Average)of)Support)&)Trust)for)Hamas))and)Fatah)by) Discounted)Sum)of)Fatalities)Over)Previous)40)Days)

Discounted)sum)of) x)<)45! 45)≤)x)<) 90)≤)x! fatalities! 90!

Variance)for)Hamas! 23.1! 15! 9.0!

Variance)for)Fatah)! 20.3! 11.0! 10.6!

Average)for)Hamas! 20.8! 20.4! 24.7!

Average)for)Fatah)! 33.4! 28.3! 30.4!

Number)of)observations) 75! 10! 5! for)Hamas)&)Fatah! !

PARTIES!THAT!DO!NOT!FOLLOW!THE!TREND!OF!DECREASING!VARIANCE!

! The!pattern!of!support!for!Islamic!Jihad,!independent!candidates!who!run!on!an!

Islamic!platform,!and!independent!candidates!who!run!on!a!nationalist!platform!is!different! than!it!is!for!Fatah!and!Hamas.!!Variance!for!Islamic!Jihad!and!the!independent!nationalists! increases!in!the!midQlevel!of!violence,!while!variance!for!the!independent!Islamists! increases!at!every!increased!level!of!violence.!!In!addition,!the!average!level!of!support!for! these!groups!is!different!from!those!discussed!above.!!The!average!level!of!support! increases!significantly!when!the!sum!of!fatalities!is!between!30!and!60!and!remains! relatively!high!when!the!sum!of!fatalities!is!above!60.!!For!example,!for!Islamic!Jihad,!the! average!level!of!support!increases!from!2.6!to!3.6!to!3.5!when!the!sum!of!fatalities!was! under!thirty,!between!thirty!and!sixty!and!above!sixty.!!The!average!for!all!of!the!polls!for!

Islamic!Jihad!is!2.6!so!the!level!of!support!when!the!violence!is!at!its!highest!is!far!above!the! average.!!!See!figures!6,!7,!and!8!for!a!graphic!representation!of!the!changes!in!support!at! different!levels!of!violence!and!Table!3!for!the!statistics.!!

!

! 68!

Figure)4.18.)Percentage)of)Palestinians)who)Support)or)Trust)Independent)Islamists)

%DiscountedSource of Palestinians PCPSR Sum JMCC of who Fatalities support Prev or trust 40 Days Independent Islamists

1.522.533.544.555.566.50101520253035404550556065707580859095100105110115120125130135140145 03/0812/1205/0212/0106/0309/0403/0404/0309/0608/0212/0406/0706/0611/0212/0712/0609/0706/0406/0810/0303/1212/0303/0607/0109/1112/0806/1009/1012/0506/1203/1409/0506/0503/0503/0912/1109/1203/0703/1112/1012/1309/1305/0903/1003/1308/0806/1108/0912/0906/13 Compared)to)the)Discounted)Sum)of)Fatalities)Over)Previous)40)Days03/08 )

6.5 04/03

6

12/03 5.5 09/04 06/04

5 03/04 03/08 03/06 11/02 05/02 4.5 03/0512/05 12/07 06/03 4 10/03 09/06 12/01 05/0903/07 12/04 03/14 12/04 3.5 06/07 07/01 12/06 09/05 09/11 08/02 06/08 3 08/0908/0809/13 06/12 03/12 03/1106/05 12/0903/10 12/12 06/1112/1303/0912/08 09/07 2.5 06/13 12/10 09/12 09/1006/10 06/06 2 03/13 12/11 1.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 Discounted Sum of Fatalities Prev 40 Days Source PCPSR JMCC % of Palestinians who support or trust Independent Islamists !

1. Polls!obtained!from!PCPSR177!and!JMCC178! 2. Dates!of!polls!range!from!21!December!2000!to!20!March!2014! 3. Fatality!data!obtained!from!B’tselem179! !

) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 177 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 178 JMCC, “Public Opinion Poll.” 179 “Statistics | B’Tselem.”

! 69!

Figure)4.19.)Percentage)of)Palestinians)who)Support)or)Trust)Independent)

DiscountedSource PCPSR Sum JMCC of Fatalities Prev 40 Days

% of Palestinians who support or trust Independent Nationalists 22.533.544.555.566.570101520253035404550556065707580859095100105110115120125130135140145 03/0812/1205/0212/0106/0309/0403/0404/0309/0608/0212/0406/0706/0611/0212/0712/0609/0706/0406/0810/0303/1212/0303/0607/0109/1112/0806/1009/1012/0506/1203/1409/0506/0503/0503/0912/1109/1203/0703/1112/1012/1309/1305/0903/1003/1308/0806/1108/0912/0906/13 Nationalists)Compared)to)the)Discounted)Sum)of)Fatalities)Over)Previous)40)Days03/08 !

11/02 7 09/04 08/02

6.5 05/02 03/05 06/04 12/04 6 03/10 12/04 12/09 04/03 5.5 12/01 03/04 12/03 06/03 5 09/05 10/03 07/01 4.5 05/0903/11 03/08 09/13 12/06 06/07 06/11 03/09 4 03/13 06/1012/08 12/12 03/0712/05 06/08 06/13 03/14 09/07 3.5 09/12 09/10 09/06 12/13 06/05 08/09 3 06/12 08/08 09/11 12/07 12/11 03/12 06/06 2.5 03/06 12/10 2 0 5 % of Palestinians who support or trust Independent Nationalists 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 Discounted Sum of Fatalities Prev 40 Days Source PCPSR JMCC !

1. Polls!obtained!from!PCPSR180!and!JMCC181! 2. Dates!of!polls!range!from!21!December!2000!to!20!March!2014! 3. Fatality!data!obtained!from!B’tselem182! !

) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 180 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 181 JMCC, “Public Opinion Poll.” 182 “Statistics | B’Tselem.”

! 70!

Figure)4.20.)Percentage)of)Palestinians)who)Support)or)Trust)Islamic)Jihad)

%DiscountedSource of Palestinians PCPSR Sum JMCC of who Fatalities support Prev or trust 40 Days Islamic Jihad

11.522.533.544.555.566.570102030405060708090100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240-800 03/0812/1205/0212/0106/0309/0403/0404/0309/0608/0212/0406/0706/0611/0212/0712/0609/0706/0406/0810/0303/1212/0303/0607/0307/0109/1112/0806/1009/1012/0506/1203/1409/0506/0503/0503/0912/1109/1203/0703/1112/1012/1309/1305/0903/1003/1308/0806/1108/0912/0906/1301/0903/0212/0012/0209/0211/0709/0104/0808/0706/0104/0102/0604/1111/0811/1110/0910/1004/1006/0905/0505/1105/12 Compared)to)the)Discounted)Sum)of)Fatalities)Over)Previous)40)Days03/08 )

7 07/01

6.5 04/03 6

06/0409/01 12/02 5.5 10/03 12/01 12/01 04/03 07/0306/01 5 04/01 06/03 4.5 12/03 12/05 12/04 05/0203/04 4 11/02 05/02 12/04 09/04 05/0509/05 10/0309/07 03/02 08/02 3.5

09/02 3 12/00 12/13 06/09 04/08 01/09 04/10 12/04 12/1106/0512/05 2.5 03/07 03/08 09/1211/0802/06 03/0510/0906/12 11/0712/04 12/10 03/12 06/06 03/09 08/07 2 03/06 03/13 06/07 06/1308/09 12/12 09/1009/13 04/11 08/0803/1103/1406/10 06/0812/0606/06 09/06 1.5 05/1203/0710/1012/08 11/11 05/0909/10 12/0709/06 03/10 09/11 1 06/1112/0905/11 % of Palestinians who support or trust Islamic Jihad - - - 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 800 Discounted Sum of Fatalities Prev 40 Days Source PCPSR JMCC !

1. Polls!obtained!from!PCPSR183!and!JMCC184! 2. Dates!of!polls!range!from!21!December!2000!to!20!March!2014! 3. Fatality!data!obtained!from!B’tselem185! !

Table)4.10.)Variance)and)Average)of)Support)&)Trust)for)Independent)Islamists,) Independent)Nationalists))and)Islamic)Jihad)by)Discounted)Sum)of)Fatalities)Over) Previous)40)Days186)

Discounted)sum)of) x)<)30! 30≤)x)<) 60)≤)x! fatalities! 60! Variance)for)Islamic) Jihad) 1.9! 2.3! 1.4!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 183 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 184 JMCC, “Public Opinion Poll.” 185 “Statistics | B’Tselem.” 186 I use a different set of ranges of violence for these parties because there are fewer data points at the higher levels of violence. Instead of calculating the variance for violence under a discounted sum of 45 fatalities, 45 to 90, and 90 +, I calculate the variance for a discounted sum under 30, from 30 to 60, and above 60.

! 71! Variance)for) .71! 1.4! 1.9! Independent) Islamists187!

Variance)for)Ind.) 1.1! 2.1! 1.1! Nationalists)! Average)for)Islamic) Jihad) 2.6! 3.6! 3.5!

Average)for)Ind.) 3.1! 4! 4.5! Islamists!

Average)for)Ind.) 3.9! 5.1! 4.8! Nationalists)!

Number)of)observations) !!71(33)! !!29!(16)! 8!(6)! for)Islamic)Jihad)(Ind.) Islamists)&) Nationalists)! !

!

! The!last!point!to!discuss!with!regard!to!variance!and!the!change!in!the!average!level! of!support!is!the!percentage!of!Palestinians!who!choose!None!of!the!Above!(NOTA).!!The! pattern!of!support!for!NOTA!is!the!same!as!that!for!moderate!parties.!!The!variance! decreases!as!violence!increases.!!In!addition!the!percentage!of!people!who!choose!this! option!when!the!number!of!fatalities!is!above!90!is!below!the!average!for!all!of!the!polls,! but!much!closer!to!the!average!than!the!maximum!or!minimum.!!The!average!percentage!of! people!who!choose!NOTA!for!all!of!the!polls!is!29%!while!the!average!is!27.5%!when!the! sum!of!fatalities!is!above!90,!far!above!the!minimum!of!12.7%!and!far!below!the!maximum! of!39.1%.!!This!suggests!that!some!Palestinians!who!are!dissatisfied!with!all!of!the!parties! shift!their!support!to!the!militant!parties!when!the!violence!is!high.!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 187 The public opinion polls used for Independent Islamists and Independent Nationalists is only used from the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. JMCC does not offer poll results for these two categories.

! 72!

Figure)4.21.)Percentage)of)Palestinians)who)Support)or)Trust)None)of)the)Above)

%DiscountedSource of Palestinians PCPSR Sum JMCC of who Fatalities support Prev or trust 40 Days NOTA

1214161820222426283032343638400105060708090100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240-800 03/0812/1205/0212/0106/0309/0403/0404/0309/0608/0212/0406/0706/0611/0212/0712/0609/0706/0406/0810/0303/1212/0303/0607/0307/0109/1112/0806/1009/1012/0506/1203/1409/0506/0503/0503/0912/1109/1203/0703/1112/1012/1309/1305/0903/1003/1308/0806/1108/0912/0906/1301/0903/0212/0012/0209/0211/0709/0104/0808/0706/0104/0102/0604/1111/0811/1110/1210/0911/1310/1004/1004/1406/0905/0505/1105/12 (NOTA))Compared)to)the)Discounted)Sum)of)Fatalities)Over)Previous)40)Days03/08 !

40 09/1211/13

38 09/10 10/1003/1404/11 09/13 36 11/08 06/1303/13 03/1106/12 11/02 04/03 34 06/1108/0812/10 12/03 03/04 12/13 04/08 04/03 12/0809/1110/03 08/02 03/1006/10 32 08/0910/12 06/07 06/0312/01 04/10 03/1206/08 12/02 09/10 07/03 12/12 06/0912/11 12/01 30 10/09 05/12 05/02 03/02 01/09 12/09 08/07 05/1104/1403/0907/01 09/04 05/05 10/0312/07 12/00 28 11/11 09/07 05/02 05/0903/07 11/07 26 03/1303/07 06/0409/0209/06 03/08 12/05 12/04 06/01 24 04/01 09/06 12/0409/0112/06 22 06/06 12/12 03/05 06/06 12/04 20 12/04

18

09/05 16 06/0502/06 03/06 14

% of Palestinians who support or trust NOTA 12/05 12 - - - 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 800 Discounted Sum of Fatalities Prev 40 Days Source PCPSR JMCC !

1. Polls!obtained!from!PCPSR188!and!JMCC189! 2. Dates!of!polls!range!from!21!December!2000!to!20!March!2014! 3. Fatality!data!obtained!from!B’tselem190! ! Table)4.11.)Variance)and)Average)of)Support)&)Trust)for)None)of)the)Above)by) Discounted)Sum)of)Fatalities)Over)Previous)40)Days)

Discounted)sum)of) x)<)45! 45)≤)x)<) 90)≤)x! fatalities! 90!

Variance)for)NOTA! 35.8! 11.5! 13.8!

Average)for)NOTA)! 28.9! 30.5! 27.5! Number)of) Observations) 75! 10! 5! !

! In!the!first!section!I!have!attempted!to!establish!that!there!is!a!pattern!of!decreasing! variance!as!the!number!of!fatalities!increases.!!In!a!sense,!the!Palestinians!become!more! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 188 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 189 JMCC, “Public Opinion Poll.” 190 “Statistics | B’Tselem.”

! 73! focused!in!their!selection!of!parties!during!crisis!conditions.!!Overall,!militant!parties!have! higher!support!and!moderate!parties!have!lower!support!when!the!voting!population!feels! threatened,!but!with!the!exception!of!Islamic!Jihad!and!the!independents,!the!support!for! most!of!the!parties!tends!to!be!pulled!toward!the!overall!average!level!of!support!for!each! party.191!!In!the!next!section!I!will!use!a!selection!of!public!opinion!poll!questions!to! attempt!to!explain!why!the!support!for!each!party!follows!these!patterns.!

!

SUBSTANTIVE!POLLING!QUESTIONS,!PARTIES,!AND!VIOLENCE!

! The!variance!for!many!parties!decreases!as!the!number!of!fatalities!increases! because!when!the!Palestinians!are!under!threat,!two!primary!responses!become!salient:!a! desire!for!diplomacy!and!a!desire!for!security!or!retaliation.!The!moderate!parties!find!it! increasingly!difficult!to!get!above!their!average!level!of!support!because!they!do!not!satisfy! the!constituents!who!want!retaliation!against!Israelis!for!Palestinian!fatalities.!!At!the!same! time,!moderate!parties!receive!a!boost!in!support!because!they!have!more!credibility!in! offering!diplomatic!solutions.!As!a!result,!the!moderate!parties!are!less!and!less!likely!to! receive!the!lowest!levels!of!support!as!the!violence!increases.!!This!pressure!from!above! and!below!compresses!the!range!of!opinion!poll!responses!as!the!violence!increases,! creating!a!funnel!effect!on!the!scatterplots!(see!figures!2Q5!above).!!

Hamas!also!has!pressure!from!above!and!below,!but!the!reasons!are!the!inverse!of! those!for!Fatah.!!Hamas!does!not!offer!a!credible!diplomatic!solution,!so!it!is!increasingly! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 191 This is partially consistent with Berrebi and Klor’s findings in the Israeli case. Berrebi and Klor compare the effects of terror attacks on Israelis in the immediate locality where the fatality took place and for all Israelis. They found that terror attacks increased support for hard-line parties in localities where residents are predominantly right- wing. In areas that are predominantly left-wing, fatalities increase support for the left-block unless the fatality occurred in the voter’s immediate locality, in which case fatalities increased support for the right block.

Berrebi and Klor, “Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism?,” 292–3.

! 74! difficult!for!them!to!reach!their!highest!levels!of!support!as!the!violence!increases,!but!at! the!same!time,!Hamas!inspires!confidence!in!their!will!and!capacity!to!punish!Israel!for!

Palestinian!fatalities.!!Islamic!Jihad!and!the!independents!don't!follow!this!pattern!because! they!are!not!associated!with!the!peace!process,!as!a!result!they!primarily!benefit!from! increases!in!violence.!!Hamas!is!a!much!larger!party,!with!an!average!of!21%!over!all!of!the! polls!in!this!study,!compared!to!2.8%!for!Islamic!Jihad,!3.4%!for!independent!Islamists!and!

4.3%!for!independent!nationalists.!!Hamas!also!has!the!burden!of!governance;!it!has!been! in!control!of!Gaza!since!2006!and!so!therefore!must!provide!a!broader!policy!platform!than! simply!firing!rockets.!!Hamas,!therefore,!has!a!similar!decrease!in!variance!as!Fatah,!while!

Islamic!Jihad!and!the!Independents!do!not.!

! In!the!remaining!sections!I!will!explore!the!intervening!relationships!between!the!

Palestinian!parties,!substantive!issues,!as!expressed!in!poll!questions,!and!violence!against!

Palestinians.!!I!will!first!discuss!the!intersection!between!a!party’s!correlation!with!violence! and!the!number!of!poll!questions!that!each!party!correlates!with.!!I!will!then!do!the!same! for!the!poll!questions,!exploring!which!poll!questions!correlate!with!the!violence!and!how! many!political!parties!those!poll!questions!correlate!with.!!Finally,!I!will!combine!those!two! views!to!show!a!connection!between!which!parties!correlate!with!both!the!peace!process! as!well!as!issues!related!to!threats!to!Palestinians!to!support!my!argument!that!the! variance!decreases!for!some!parties!because!they!are!constrained!from!above!and!below.!

! In!order!to!look!at!the!relationship!between!substantive!issues,!parties,!and! violence,!I!used!poll!questions!from!the!Palestinian!Center!for!Policy!and!Survey!

Research.192!!There!are!52!polls!in!this!!study,!starting!with!the!first!poll!in!July!of!2000!and!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 192 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.”

! 75! the!last!poll!in!June!of!2014.!!The!poll!questions!are!not!available!in!longitudinal!format,!so!I! followed!52!questions!that!were!relevant!to!violence!and!compiled!them.!!I!kept!the!polls! that!were!asked!a!minimum!of!12!times,!leaving!me!with!18!questions.!!I!ran!simple! regressions!between!the!substantive!poll!questions!and!the!discounted!sum!of!fatalities.!I! then!ran!simple!regressions!between!the!poll!questions!and!the!parties.!!Finally,!I!ran! regressions!between!each!party!and!the!sum!of!fatalities.!

! An!unexpected!finding!was!that!the!larger!the!correlation!coefficient!between!a! party!and!the!discounted!sum!of!fatalities!(regardless!of!whether!that!correlation!is! statistically!significant),!the!more!questions!each!party!is!significantly!correlated!with.!!It! seems!that!violence!shapes!Palestinian!views!of!a!number!of!governance!issues.!!In!Figure!

10!the!yQaxis!represents!the!number!of!questions!each!party!is!significantly!correlated!with! at!the!.05!level.!!The!xQaxis!represents!the!correlation!coefficient!between!the!percentage! support!for!each!party!and!the!discounted!sum!of!fatalities.!!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! In this section I only use PCPSR polls rather than a combination of PCPSR and JMCC because the substantive poll questions come from PCPSR. Respondents are asked which political party they support on the same survey, making it possible to make comparisons of response to violence on the same day.

! 76!

Figure)4.22.))The)number)of)poll)questions)each)political)party)is)correlated)with)by)

12345678910-.035-.03-.025-.02-.015-.01-.0050.005.01.015.02Regression coefficient for party by discounted sum of fatalities FatahPPPPNIDFLPThirdPFLPLeftHamasNOTAFidaIndepndentIndependentIslamicNumber Parties Way Jihad of poll NationalistsPPP, Islamists questions PFLP, DFLP correlated with each party at the .05 level PartiesNew party withthat with correlatehaveUDincreasing insufficentor decreasing DU withvariance variance fatalitiesdata variance points at .05 level the)party’s)correlation)coefficient)with)the)discoParties with UD or DU variance unted)sum)of)fatalities)

NOTA 10

9 Third Way PFLP Hamas 8 Left Parties PPP, PFLP, DFLP Independent Islamists 7 Fatah Islamic Jihad 6 5 Indepndent Nationalists 4 3 2 Fida PPP,!DFLP! 1 DFLPPNIPPP -.035 -.03 -.025 -.02 -.015 -.01 -.005 0 .005 .01 .015 .02

Regression coefficient for party by discounted sum of fatalities

Parties with UD or DU variance New party with insufficent data points Parties that have decreasing variance Parties that correlate with fatalities at .05 level Number of poll questions correlated with each party at the level .05 Parties with increasing variance

!

1. Polls!obtained!from!PCPSR193! 2. Dates!of!polls!range!from!21!December!2000!to!20!March!2014! 3. Fatality!data!obtained!from!B’tselem194! !

As!expected,!the!support!for!militant!parties!is!positively!correlated!with!the! violence,!while!the!moderate!parties!have!a!negative!correlation.!!In!other!words,!the! percentage!of!Palestinians!who!support!the!militant!parties!increases!as!the!violence! increases!and!the!percentage!of!Palestinians!who!support!moderate!parties!decreases!as! the!violence!increases.!!But!in!addition,!the!parties!fall!along!a!parabolic!line!so!that!as!the! party!moves!further!to!the!right!or!left!of!zero!on!the!xQaxis,!they!move!further!up!the!yQaxis!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 193 Ibid. 194 “Statistics | B’Tselem.”

! 77! because!they!are!correlating!with!more!poll!questions!–a!parabolic!line!was!added!to!the! graph!to!highlight!the!trend.!!!

Two!parties!do!not!fall!neatly!on!this!line,!Third!Way!and!Fatah.!!Third!Way!is!a! relatively!new!party,!founded!in!December!of!2005.!!As!a!result,!Third!Way!is!only!included! in!18!polls,!compared!to!Fatah’s!51!polls,!and!only!three!of!those!polls!occurred!when!the! discounted!sum!of!fatalities!was!higher!than!12!over!the!previous!40!days.!!Fatah’s! placement!to!the!left!of!the!line!is!less!clear,!but!Fatah!is!an!outlier!for!being!much!more! strongly!associated!with!the!violence!than!any!of!the!other!parties.!!This!makes!sense!in! that!chief!executives!are!held!accountable!for!violence!associated!with!foreign!policy.!!In! addition,!Fatah’s!militant!wing,!Al!Aqsa!Martyr’s!Brigade,!takes!responsibility!for!more! attacks!against!Israelis!than!DFLP!and!PPP.!

Three!observations!emerge!from!Figure!10.!!The!first!is!that!the!only!party!that!is! significantly!correlated!with!the!sum!of!fatalities!is!Islamic!Jihad!–while!not!organized!as! parties,!the!independent!Islamists!and!the!independent!nationalists!are!also!significantly! correlated!at!the!.05!level!(these!three!groups!are!marked!in!red!on!the!graph!to!indicate! their!statistically!significant!correlation!with!the!sum!of!fatalities).!!!The!second! observation!is!that!all!of!the!parties!that!have!a!high!correlation!coefficient!when!compared! to!the!sum!of!fatalities!have!decreasing!variance!(noted!on!the!graph!with!triangles!for!data! points).!!The!exceptions!to!this!are!all!of!the!groups!that!are!significantly!correlated!with! violence,!Islamic!Jihad!and!the!independents.!!The!third!observation!is!that!the!variance!of! parties!PPP!and!DFLP,!which!have!a!correlation!coefficient!of!almost!zero,!and!are!only! correlated!with!one!poll!question!each,!does!not!decrease!as!violence!increases.!!However,!

! 78! when!the!PPP,!PFLP,!and!DFLP!are!combined!into!one!block,!they!do!correlate!more! strongly!with!the!violence!and!with!more!poll!questions.!

! The!poll!questions!follow!the!same!pattern!as!the!political!parties!when!plotted! against!the!discounted!sum!of!fatalities!in!that!the!larger!the!correlation!coefficient!with! the!sum!of!fatalities,!the!more!political!parties!the!poll!question!is!significantly!correlated! with.!!In!contrast!to!Figure10,!in!Figure!11!the!yQaxis!represents!the!number!of!parties!that! each!poll!question!is!significantly!correlated!with!at!the!.05!level.!!Each!data!point! represents!a!polling!question.!!The!questions!are!provided!in!Table!5!with!their! corresponding!question!number.!!I!separated!the!poll!questions!into!four!categories:!the! peace!process!(labeled!with!blue!text!in!Figure!11),!the!perception!of!the!legitimacy!of!the! government!(in!purple!text),!corruption!(in!green!text),!support!for!violence!against!

Israelis!(in!red!text)!and!a!perception!of!being!threatened!(in!orange!text).!!I!ran! regressions!of!the!hawkish!response!to!all!of!the!poll!questions!with!the!sum!of!fatalities,! that!way!it!would!become!clear!which!issues!benefit!the!militant!parties!and!which!issues! do!not.!

! Three!categories!of!poll!questions!have!both!strong!correlation!coefficients!when! regressions!are!run!against!the!sum!of!fatalities!and!are!significantly!correlated!with!a! larger!number!of!political!parties:!questions!about!the!peace!process,!corruption,!and!the! legitimate!use!of!or!threat!of!violence.!!Unsurprisingly,!support!for!violence!against!Israeli! citizens!and!a!perception!that!the!respondent!or!his!or!her!family!is!in!danger!increases!

! 79! when!the!number!of!Palestinian!fatalities!increases,!and!these!questions!are!more!likely!to! be!statistically!significant.195!!!

The!strong!and!significant!correlation!of!corruption!with!an!increase!in!violence!is! somewhat!surprising.!!Hamas!has!long!been!associated!with!clean!government!and!Hamas! tends!to!do!better!when!the!violence!increases.!!My!original!hypothesis!was!that!violence! would!create!a!more!generalized!dissatisfaction!with!governance!issues!in!general!for! moderate!parties,!undermine!the!legitimacy!of!moderate!parties,!and!increase!legitimacy! and!satisfaction!with!governance!issues!for!militant!parties.!!While!questions!40!and!41!in!

Figure!11,!regarding!whether!Hamas’s!government!in!Gaza!or!Fatah’s!government!in!the!

West!Bank!was!legitimate!(during!the!split!between!these!parties)!and!whether!Hamas’s! political!leader!Haniyeh!was!performing!well!in!general,!are!significantly!correlated!with! the!sum!of!fatalities,!violence!has!a!much!smaller!effect!on!these!questions!than!it!does!on! corruption.!!!

! Hawkish!positions!on!the!peace!process!are!negatively!associated!with!an!increase! in!violence.!!When!the!violence!increases,!Palestinians!are!less!likely!to!be!opposed!to!the! peace!process!in!general,!they!were!less!likely!to!oppose!the!Saudi!Plan,!less!likely!to! oppose!reconciliation!with!Israelis,!less!likely!to!oppose!recognizing!Israel!as!a!Jewish!state,! and!were!more!optimistic!about!the!possibility!of!an!independent!Palestinian!state.!!

Negative!responses!to!question!7,!“Do!you!support!the!roadmap?”!are,!however,!positively! associated!with!an!increase!in!violence.!!This!is!consistent!with!the!argument!made!by!Alan!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 195 Question 22, “To!what!extent!are!you!worried!or!not!worried!that!you!or!a!member!of!your!family!could!be! hurt!by!Israel!in!your!daily!life!or!that!your!land!would!be!confiscated!or!home!demolished?”!is!an!exception,! however!while!this!question!was!asked!20!times,!it!was!only!asked!3!times!when!the!sum!of!fatalities!over!the! previous!40!days!was!above!17!–this!question!was!introduced!more!recently,!and!there!have!been!long! periods!of!quiet!since!its!introduction.!!It!is!likely!that!if!they!continue!using!this!poll!question!during!violent! periods!it!will!also!have!a!large!correlation!coefficient!and!will!correlate!with!a!larger!number!of!parties.

! 80! Dowty!that!while!shortQterm!support!for!specific!peace!initiatives!are!undermined!by!

violence,!support!for!the!peace!process!in!general!is!more!durable.196!

!

Figure)4.23.)The)number)of)parties)each)poll)question)is)significantly)correlated)with)

12345678-.08-.06-.04-.020.02.04.06.08.1.12.14.16.18.2.22Regression coefficient for poll question by discounted sum of fatalities Number of parties correlated with each poll question at the .05 level Q.Questions 522642138444325571225123214140 withcorrelated decreasing with violencevariance with a p-value < .05 Qby)correlation)coefficient)w 52 ith)sum)of)fatalities)over)previous)40)days)

8 legiAmacy!of! Q 44 govt.!

7 percepAon!of!! threat! peace!! CorrupAon! support!violence! Q 1 process! Q 23 against!Israelis! Q 21 6 peace!!Q 8 Q 52 process!

5 peace!! process! Q 5 peace!! peace!! process! process! 4 Q3!&!Q13!QQ 133 peace!! support!violence! process! against!Israelis! legiAmacy! Q 7 Q 51 of!govt.! 3 Q 4 Q 42 peace!! legiAmacy! process! general!condiAons!! in!Gaza!&!WB! !of!govt.! Q 40

2 general!condiAons!! Q 25 Q 26 in!Gaza!&!WB! legiAmacy!! percepAon!Q 22 of!govt.!Q 41

1 of!threat!

-.08-.06 -.04-.02 0 .02 .04 .06 .08 .1 .12 .14 .16 .18 .2 .22

Regression coefficient for poll question by discounted sum of fatalities

. Questions with decreasing variance

Number of parties correlated with each poll question at the level .05 Questions correlated with violence with a p-value < .05

!

1. Polls!obtained!from!PCPSR197! 2. Dates!of!polls!range!from!21!December!2000!to!20!March!2014! 3. Fatality!data!obtained!from!B’tselem198! !

!

!

! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 196 Alan Dowty, “Despair Is Not Enough: Violence, Attitudinal Change, and ‘Ripeness’ in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict,” Cooperation and Conflict 41, no. 1 (2006): 5–29. 197 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.” 198 “Statistics | B’Tselem.”

! 81! Table)4.12))List)of)poll)questions)regarding)the)peace)process,)threat,)and)governance) Question! Question! Answer! #! 1! Generally!do!you!see!yourself!as! Opposed!to!the!peace! process! 3! According!to!the!Saudi!plan,!Israel!will! Oppose!&!Certainly! retreat!from!all!territories!occupied!in!1967! Oppose! including!Gaza!and!the!West!Bank,! Jerusalem!and!the!Golan!Heights,!and!a! Palestinian!state!will!be!established.!The! refugee!problem!will!be!resolved!through! negotiation!in!a!just!and!agreed!upon! manner!and!in!accordance!with!UN! resolution!194!which!allows!return!of! refugees!to!Israel!and!compensation.!!In! return,!all!Arab!states!will!recognize!Israel! and!its!right!to!secure!borders,!will!sign! peace!treaties!with!her!and!establish! normal!diplomatic!relations.!Do!you!agree! or!disagree!to!this!plan?! 4! After!reaching!a!peace!agreement!between! Oppose!or!Strongly! the!Palestinian!people!and!Israel!and!the! Oppose! establishment!of!a!Palestinian!state!that!is! recognized!by!Israel,!would!you!support!or! oppose!the!process!of!reconciliation! between!the!state!of!Palestine!and!the!state! of!Israel?! 5! After!reaching!a!peace!agreement!between! only!in!many!generations! the!Palestinian!people!and!Israel!and!the! to!come!or!is!not!possible! establishment!of!a!Palestinian!state!that!is! ever! recognized!by!Israel,!how!soon!do!you!think! will!reconciliation!between!the!two!peoples! be!achieved?! 7! The!US,!Russia,!the!European!Community! Oppose!or!Strongly! and!the!UN,!the!so!called!"Quartet",!have! Oppose! put!forward!a!"roadmap"!for!the! implementation!of!a!final!settlement!within! 3!years.!The!plan!includes!a!demand!for! political!reforms!in!the!Palestinian! authority!including!a!constitution!and! election!of!a!strong!Prime!Minister,! stopping!the!incitement!and!violence!on! both!sides!under!the!Quartet's!supervision,! a!demand!for!freeze!on!settlements!and!the! establishment!of!a!Palestinian!State!within!

! 82! provisional!borders!by!the!end!of!next!year.! The!next!phase!will!see!negotiations!on!the! final!borders!under!the!hospices!of!an! international!conference.!Do!you!support!or! oppose!this!initiative?! 8! There!is!a!proposal!that!after!the! Disagree!or!Definitely! establishment!of!an!independent! Disagree! Palestinian!state!and!the!settlement!of!all! issues!in!dispute,!including!the!refugees! and!Jerusalem!issues,!there!will!be!a!mutual! recognition!of!Israel!as!the!state!of!the! Jewish!people!and!Palestine!as!the!state!of! the!Palestinian!people.!Do!you!agree!or! disagree!to!this!proposal.! 13! Now!40!years!after!the!Israeli!occupation!of! Low!or!NonQexistent! the!West!Bank!and!the!Gaza!Strip,!what!in! your!view!are!the!chances!for!the! establishment!of!an!independent! Palestinian!state!next!to!the!state!of!Israel! in!the!next!five!years?! 21! Would!you!say!that!these!days!your! Not!Assured!or!Not! security!and!safety,!and!that!of!your!family,! Assured!at!All! is!assured!or!not!assured?! 22! To!what!extent!are!you!worried!or!not! Worried!or!Very!Worried! worried!that!you!or!a!member!of!your! family!could!be!hurt!by!Israel!in!your!daily! life!or!that!your!land!would!be!confiscated! or!home!demolished?! 23! Do!you!think!that!there!is!corruption!in!PA! Yes! institutions?!(of!President!Abu!Mazin?)! 25! In!general,!how!would!you!describe! Good!or!Very!Good! conditions!of!the!Palestinians!in!the! Palestinian!areas!in!Gaza!Strip!these!days?! 26! In!general,!how!would!you!describe! Bad!or!Very!Bad! conditions!of!the!Palestinians!in!the! Palestinian!areas!in!the!West!Bank!these! days?! 40! After!the!separation!between!Gaza!and!the! Haniyeh's!government!is! West!Bank,!Hamas!and!the!government!of! the!legitimate!one! Ismail!Haniyeh!remained!in!power!in!Gaza! and!considered!itself!the!legitimate! government!while!president!Abu!Mazin! formed!a!new!government!headed!by!Salam! Fayyad!and!it!too!considered!itself! legitimate.!What!about!you,!which!of!the!

! 83! two!governments!you!consider!legitimate,! ! the!government!of!Haniyeh!or!the! ! ! government!of!Abu!Mazin!and!Fayyad?! ! 41! Tell!us!how!do!you!evaluate!the! Good!or!Very!Good! ! performance!of!the!dismissed!government! ! of!Ismail!Haniyeh!in!the!Gaza!Strip?!Is!it! ! good!or!bad?! ! ! 42! Tell!us!how!do!you!evaluate!the! Bad!or!Very!Bad! ! performance!of!the!government!that!was! ! headed!by!Salam!Fayyad!until!recently! ! when!he!formed!a!new!government?!Is!it! ! good!or!bad?! ! ! 44! Are!you!satisfied!or!not!satisfied!with!the! Not!Satisfied!or!Not! ! performance!of!Mahmud!Abbas!since!his! Satisfied!at!All! ! election!as!president!of!the!PA?! ! 51! Concerning!armed!attacks!against!Israeli! Support!or!Certainly! ! ! civilians!inside!Israel!I…! Support! ! 52! Do!you!believe!that!armed!confrontations,! Yes!or!Definitely!Yes! ! so!far!have!achieved!Palestinian!rights!in!a! ! way!that!negotiations!could!not?! ! ! 1. Polls!obtained!from!PCPSR199! 2. Dates!of!polls!range!from!21!December!2000!to!20!March!2014! !

In!Table!6!the!results!of!Figures!10!and!11!are!combined.!!Here!the!differences!between! parties!that!have!decreasing!variance!and!those!that!do!not!become!apparent.!!The!parties! that!have!decreasing!variance!are!associated!with!three!or!more!poll!questions!associated! with!the!peace!process!and!are!associated!with!two!or!three!questions!associated!with! corruption!or!threat,!(with!the!exception!of!Fatah!which!is!only!significantly!correlated! with!the!question!of!whether!respondents!support!violent!attacks!against!Israeli!civilians).!!

The!Independent!Nationalists!stand!out!for!being!associated!with!two!questions!associated! with!the!peace!process,!but!one!of!those!responses,!#!7,!“I!am!opposed!to!the!Road!Map,”!is! positively!associated!with!an!increase!in!fatalities!as!discussed!above.!

! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 199 Shikaki, “Survey Research Unit.”

! 84! Table)4.13.)Parties)compared)to)the)poll)questions)they)are)significantly)associated) with)at)the).05)level) Party!Name! The!poll!questions! The!poll!questions! associated!with!the!peace! associated!with! process!that!the!party!is! corruption,!perception!of! significantly!correlated! threat,!or!desire!for! with:!1,!3,!4,!5,!7,!8,!13! retaliation!that!the!party! is!significantly!correlated! with:!21,!22,!23,!51,!52! Fatah*!) 1,!8,!13! 51! Hamas*!) 1,!3,!4,!5,!8!! 21,!23! PFLP*) 1,!4,!5,!7!! 21,!23,!52! Third)Way*! 1,!3,!8,!13! 21,!23,!! NOTA*! 1,!3,!4,!8! 21,!23,!52! Islamic!Jihad!+! ! 21,!23,!51,!52! Independent!Islamists!+! 8! 21,!22,!23,!51,!52! Independent!Nationalists!! 5,!7! 52! +! PPP!! 5! ! PNI! 3! ! Fida!! 4! ! DFLP! 3! ! 1. Parties!in!bold!and!with!a!*!indicate!decreasing!variance!as!the!sum!of!fatalities!increases! 2. Parties!with!a!+!are!significantly!correlated!with!the!sum!of!fatalities! 3. Polls!obtained!from!PCPSR200! 4. Dates!of!polls!range!from!21!December!2000!to!20!March!2014! 5. Fatality!data!obtained!from!B’tselem201!

!

CONCLUSION!

! The!variance!of!the!public!support!for!Palestinian!parties!that!are!associated!with! both!the!peace!process!and!corruption,!threat,!and!retaliation,!decreases!as!the!number!of!

Palestinian!fatalities!increases.!!I!suggest!this!is!due!to!pressure!from!above!and!below,! both!for!militant!parties!like!Hamas,!and!moderate!parties!like!Fatah.!!Palestinians!as!a! collective!society!have!two!simultaneous!responses!to!violence:!a!desire!for!a!diplomatic! solution!and!a!desire!for!security!and!retaliation.!!Within!the!Palestinian!case,!these!are!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 200 Ibid. 201 “Statistics | B’Tselem.”

! 85! somewhat!exclusive!demands!as!Hamas’!refusal!thus!far!to!abandon!violence!as!a!strategic! option!is!one!of!the!reasons!that!has!prevented!them!from!participating!in!the!peace! process.!!But,!Hamas!is!different!from!Islamic!Jihad,!which!primarily!benefits!when!the! violence!increases.!!The!variance!for!the!support!for!Islamic!Jihad!increases!until!you!get!to! the!most!extreme!level!of!violence:!Islamic!Jihad!is!not!constrained!by!any!association!with! the!peace!process.!!Hamas,!on!the!other!hand,!even!while!it!is!excluded!from!peace! negotiations,!does!regularly!engage!in!and!enforces!ceaseQfires.!!They!negotiated!for!the! release!of!the!abducted!Israeli!soldier,!Gilad!Shalit,!in!2011,!the!first!time!the!Israeli! government!had!negotiated!with!Hamas.!!And!as!a!large!party!that!has!been!in!control!of! the!Gaza!strip!since!2006,!they!are!held!accountable!for!a!larger!range!of!issues!than!

Islamic!Jihad!and!the!independent!candidates.!!

! The!Palestinian!case!is!somewhat!unique!in!that!the!Palestinian!Authority!does!not! completely!control!the!territory!it!governs.!!A!number!of!the!smaller!parties!within!the!PA,! like!PPP,!DFLP,!and!Fida,!do!not!have!support!that!is!strongly!or!significantly!correlated! with!either!the!violence!or!more!than!one!substantive!issue!from!the!poll!questions.!!The! variance!for!these!parties!does!not!decrease,!but!that!is!largely!because!they!are!not! constrained!by!issues!associated!with!violence!and!therefore!do!not!have!pressure!from! above!and!below!as!the!violence!increases.!

! These!findings!are!important!because!they!help!to!provide!some!level!of!prediction! for!how!much!support!different!Palestinian!parties!will!receive!after!violent!conflict.!!Most! of!the!parties!that!have!decreasing!variance!and!are!correlated!with!both!the!peace!process! as!well!as!the!perception!of!threat!and!desire!for!retaliation,!tend!to!receive!support!that!is! close!to!their!average!over!all!the!polls.!!It!is!also!important!for!understanding!the!

! 86! constraints!and!incentives!that!all!of!the!actors!in!the!political!system!are!confront!with.!!As!

Mia!Bloom!has!pointed!out,!parties!that!previously!did!not!participate!in!suicide!bombing,! adopted!this!strategy!only!after!it!became!a!successful!strategy!for!increasing!their!support! among!the!Palestinian!public.202!

!

!

!

!

!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 202 Mia M. Bloom, “Palestinian Suicide Bombing: Public Support, Market Share, and Outbidding,” Political Science Quarterly 119, no. 1 (2004): 73.

! 87! CHAPTER)5:)ISRAELI)CASE) !

The!Israeli!case!is!consistent!with!the!Palestinian!case!in!that!the!amount!of!variance! decreases!as!the!level!of!violence!increases.!!In!this!chapter!I!compare!levels!of!variance!in! the!amount!of!support!for!individual!Israeli!parties!as!well!as!for!aggregated!parties! according!to!their!position!on!the!political!spectrum.!!As!with!the!Palestinian!case,!I!explore! the!relationship!between!the!variables!both!graphically!and!with!tables.!!In!addition!to! comparing!the!levels!of!support!for!parties!to!a!discounted!sum!of!fatalities!prior!to!each! public!opinion!poll!as!I!did!with!the!Palestinian!case,!I!also!use!a!discounted!sum!of!the! number!of!rockets!and!mortars!fired!into!Israel.!!This!effectively!creates!two!cases!out!of! the!Israel!case,!as!the!time!period!in!which!the!level!of!fatalities!was!very!high,!during!the!

Second!Intifada,!is!largely!distinct!from!the!time!period!when!Israel!was!subjected!to!high! levels!of!rocket!and!mortar!attacks.!!The!variance!decreases!in!both!time!periods!when!the! levels!of!violence!are!low!to!medium,!however!with!the!rocket!and!mortar!attacks!the! variance!increases!again!for!the!very!highest!levels!of!violence.!

! Why!do!voters!have!more!consistent!preferences!when!the!amount!of!violence! increases?!!In!the!second!section!I!look!at!some!opinion!poll!questions!on!specific!issues! related!to!the!conflict.!!I!find!that!voters’!responses!are!also!more!consistent!as!the!amount! of!violence!increases.!!While!this!parallel!helps!to!shed!some!light!on!why!voters!are!more! consistent!about!their!party!preferences,!it!produces!another!question:!why!do!voters!have! more!consistent!responses!to!questions!related!to!the!conflict?!!In!the!Palestinian!chapter!I! suggested!that!a!salient!issue!may!be!simplifying!the!decisionQmaking!process!of!a! population!subjected!to!violence.!!In!the!last!section!of!this!chapter!I!explore!some!core! underlying!values!of!voters.!!My!hypothesis!is!that!some!of!these!values!should!increase!in!

! 88! importance!relative!to!the!other!values.!!Although!more!data!is!needed,!the!initial!findings! are!that!two!values,!peace!and!a!Jewish!majority!in!Israel,!become!the!primary!values! relative!to!democracy!and!greater!Israel.!

! In!order!to!get!an!overview!of!how!broad!sections!of!the!Israeli!public!change!their! political!party!preferences!in!response!to!violence,!I!first!aggregate!the!political!parties!into! four!categories:!hardline!secular,!religious,!centrist,!and!a!combination!of!liberal!and!Arab! parties.203!!I!have!standardized!the!values!of!the!level!of!support!for!each!category!of! political!party:!the!variance!is!the!variable!of!interest,!not!the!relative!difference!in!size! between!religious,!liberal,!and!conservative!parties.!!Figure!1!is!a!line!graph!comparing!the! variance!of!the!standardized!values!of!support!for!the!political!parties!in!each!category!to!a! discounted!sum!of!the!number!of!fatalities!over!the!preceding!30!days.204!!The!variance!for! all!four!categories!drops!from!a!range!of!.9!to!1.15!when!the!discounted!sum!of!fatalities! was!under!8!for!the!previous!30!days!down!to!a!range!of!.15!to!.18!for!all!parties!when!the! discounted!sum!of!fatalities!was!between!8!and!16.!!The!variance!remains!almost! unchanged!for!hardline,!centrist,!and!left!wing!parties!when!the!discounted!sum!of! fatalities!rises!to!16!to!33!over!the!30!days!prior!to!each!poll.!!Religious!parties,!however,! have!an!increase!in!variance!at!the!highest!level!of!fatalities!with!a!standardized!variance!of!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 203 The parties included within each category are as follows: • Right-wing secular: Likud, Likud & Yisrael Beitenu, Yisrael Beitenu, National Union, National Union & Yisrael Beitenu • Religious parties: Jewish Home, Mafdal, Shas, Yahadut Hatorah • Centrist parties: Yisrael B’aliya, Shinui, Yesh Atid, Kadima, The Movement, Gil • Left-wing & Arab parties: Meretz, Labor, Yachad, Green, Green Leaf, and the Arab parties Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al, and Balad 204 It is assumed that recent violence will have more impact on voters than violence that occurred further in the past, therefore the violence that occurred the day before the public opinion poll is counted at full value. Each preceding day the value of the violence is reduced by 1/30 until you reach the 31st day, which has no value. The fatality rate used here is the sum of the 30 days prior to the poll using this discounted rate.

! 89! .46,!although!this!is!still!less!than!half!the!amount!of!variance!compared!to!the!lowest!level! of!violence.!

! !

Figure)5.1.!Variance)of)Four)Blocks)of)Parties)Compared)to)Discounted)Sum)of)

VarianceSum of Fatalities of Standardized discounted Values 30 Daysof Polls Variance CentristLeftof RightReligious Wing WingParties Parties Parties Parties .1.15.2.25.3.35.4.45.5.55.6.65.7.75.8.85.9.9511.051.11.1578910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334 Fatalities)Over)Previous)30)Days.1 !!

1.15 1.1 1.05 1 .95 .9 .85 .8 .75 .7 .65 .6 .55 .5 .45 .4 .35 .3 .25 .2 .15 Variance of Standardized Values of Polls .1 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Sum of Fatalities discounted 30 Days

Variance of Right Wing Parties Variance of Religious Parties Variance Centrist Parties Variance Left Wing Parties ! 6. Fatality!data!obtained!from!B’tselem.205!!! 7. Dates!of!polls!range!from!01!December!2000!to!31!December!2013.!!! 8. See!appendix!A!for!list!of!sources!for!public!opinion!polls.! 9. Number!of!observations:!hard)line![0!

When!the!discounted!sum!of!rockets!and!mortars!is!used!as!the!independent! variable!instead!of!a!discounted!sum!of!fatalities,!the!results!for!the!change!in!variance!of! support!for!parties!is!similar.!!While!fatalities,!rockets,!and!mortars!are!somewhat!different! in!nature,!it!is!expected!that!they!have!a!similar!effect!on!voters!in!terms!of!creating!a!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 205 “Statistics | B’Tselem.”

! 90! perception!of!threat!and!undermining!a!sense!of!security.!!In!Figure!2!the!religious!parties! and!the!hardline!parties!drop!from!a!!standardized!variance!of!1.06!and!1.07!respectively! for!the!polls!taken!when!the!discounted!sum!of!rockets!and!mortars!over!the!previous!40! days!was!under!300!down!to!a!variance!of!.16!and!.17!when!the!count!of!rockets!and! mortars!was!between!300!and!600!and!a!variance!of!.07!and!.08!when!the!count!of!rockets! was!between!600!and!900.206!!The!variance!for!the!left!wing!parties!follows!a!similar!trend! and!the!variance!remains!below!.2!at!a!discounted!rate!of!approximately!1500!and!1700! rockets!and!mortars.207!!The!variance!of!the!standardized!values!of!the!expected!number!of! seats!for!the!centrist!parties!increases!at!the!highest!levels!of!violence.!!This!is!primarily! due!to!the!rapid!rise!and!fall!of!the!largest!centrist!party,!Kadima,!formed!in!2005.!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 206 I have excluded the polls for the right wing and religious parties during the time periods when the right wing party National Union formed a joint list with the religious party Jewish Home. To include these polls would give the false appearance that support for one block had increased while support for the other had decreased. The time periods when Jewish Home and National Union formed a joint list coincided with periods of the highest counts of rockets and mortars. As a result, in Figure 2 the line graph for the change in variance for both blocks stops at the discounted sum of 746 rockets and mortars over the previous 40 days (this appears as one line because the change in variance is so similar for both blocks). 207 For the discounted rate for rockets and mortars I took a flat sum of the previous 10 days and added the discounted sum of the previous 30 days prior to that for a total of 40 days.

! 91!

Figure)5.2.)Variance)of)Four)Blocks)of)Parties)Compared)to)Discounted)Sum)of)

VarianceSum of Rockets of Standardized and Mortars Values Count of 40Polls days (10 flat + 30 discounted) 0.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.911.11.2Variance of RightReligiousCentristLeft Wing Wing Parties Parties Parties Parties 300400500600700800900100011001200130014001500160017001800190020002100220023002400250026002700 Rockets)and)Mortars)Over)Previous)40)Days300 )

1.2 1.1 1 .9 .8 .7 .6 .5 .4 .3 .2 .1 0 Variance of Standardized Values of Polls 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 Sum of Rockets and Mortars Count 40 days (10 flat + 30 discounted)

Variance of Right Wing Parties Variance of Religious Parties Variance of Centrist Parties Variance of Left Wing Parties ) 1. Rocket!and!mortar!data!collected!from!Intelligence!and!Terrorism!Information!Center!at!the!Israel! Intelligence!Heritage!and!Commemoration!Center!(IICC)208!and!from!the!ISA.209!Dates!of!polls!range! from!20!July!2001!to!23!January!2014.!!See!Appendix!A!for!list!of!sources!of!public!opinion!polls.! 2. Number!of!observations:!hardline![0!

! Another!way!to!observe!the!relationships!between!violence!and!the!patterns!of! support!for!political!parties!is!to!look!at!scatterplots.!!In!Figure!3!the!scatterplots!compare! the!combined!expected!number!of!seats!that!would!be!won!in!a!Knesset!election!for!all!of! the!center,!left,!and!Arab!parties!at!the!time!of!each!public!opinion!poll!to!the!discounted!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 208 “The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center.” 209 “Terror Data and Trends.”

! 92! sum!of!rockets!and!mortars!over!the!previous!40!days.210!In!Figure!4!I!have!plotted!the! combined!expected!number!of!seats!for!the!hardline!secular!and!the!religious!parties.211!!!

! Figure)5.3.)Expected)Number)of)Seats)for)CenterZLeftZArab)Parties)Compared)to)

212

LeftSum Wing-Center-ArabRocket and Mortar Parties Count 40 days (10 flat + 30 discounted) 4446485052545658606264666870727476788082840100200300400500600700800900100011001200130014001500160017001800190020002100220023002400250026002700 Discounted)Sum)of)Rockets)and)Mortars)Over)Previous)40)Days44 )

84 82 80 78 76 74 72 70 68 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 52 Left Wing-Center-Arab Parties Wing-Center-Arab Left 50 48 46 44 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700

Sum Rocket and Mortar Count 40 days (10 flat + 30 discounted)

) ) ! 1.!Rocket!and!mortar!data!collected!from!Intelligence!and!Terrorism!Information!Center!at!the!Israel! Intelligence!Heritage!and!Commemoration!Center!(IICC)213!and!from!the!ISA.214!Public!opinion!polls!span! from!01!December!2000!to!23!January!2014.!See!Appendix!A!for!list!of!sources!of!public!opinion!polls.! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 210 The discount rate for the sum of rockets and mortars is a sum of the rockets and mortars over the previous 40 days. The 10 days prior to each opinion poll are counted at full value. The value for each day before that is reduced by a step of 1/30th, for example the fifteenth day is counted at half value, until the 31st day, which has no value. 211!These!two!plots!in!Figures!3!and!4!are!mirror!images!of!each!other,!because!the!two!blocks!of!parties! together!comprise!all!of!the!expected!seats!in!the!Knesset.! 212 In Figures 3 and 4 each data point on the scatterplot represents a public opinion poll and its expected number of combined seats that would be won by all of the combined parties if elections were held at that time –Figure 3 combines the expected seats for the Left, Center, and Arab parties; Figure 4 combines the expected seats for the Right Wing and Religious parties. Larger values on the y-axis indicate a larger number of seats that would be won. The x-axis represents the discounted sum of rockets and mortars fired into Israel over the 40 days preceding each opinion poll. This discounted sum is calculated by adding the ten days prior to the poll date as a straight sum and the thirty days prior to this are discounted at a rate of 1/30 until the 31st day, which is zero. 213 “The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center.” 214 “Terror Data and Trends.”

! 93!

Figure)5.4.)Expected)Number)of)Seats)for)HardZLine/Religious)Parties)Compared)to)

RightSum Rocket Wing & and Religious Mortar Parties Count 40 days (10 flat + 30 discounted) 3638404244464850525456586062646668707274760100200300400500600700800900100011001200130014001500160017001800190020002100220023002400250026002700 Discounted)Sum)of)Rockets)and)Mortars)Over)Pre36 vious)40)Days)

76 74 72 70 68 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 Right Wing & Religious Parties 42 40 38 36 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700

Sum Rocket and Mortar Count 40 days (10 flat + 30 discounted)

) ! 1.!Rocket!and!mortar!data!collected!from!Intelligence!and!Terrorism!Information!Center!at!the!Israel! Intelligence!Heritage!and!Commemoration!Center!(IICC)215!and!from!the!ISA.216!Public!opinion!polls!span! from!01!December!2000!to!31!January!2014.!!See!Appendix!A!for!list!of!sources!of!public!opinion!polls.! !

! In!Figure!3,!the!minimum!number!of!seats!the!centerQleft!block!was!expected!to!win! was!44!out!of!120!Knesset!seats217!while!the!maximum!was!84218,!both!values!occurring! when!the!discounted!sum!of!rockets!and!mortars!over!the!preceding!40!days!was!below!

100.!The!minimum!and!maximum!number!of!seats!the!hardlineQreligious!block!was! expected!to!win!was!36!and!76!respectively,!both!also!occurring!at!the!lowest!level!of! violence.!!Table!1!shows!that!the!variance!of!support!for!both!blocks!of!parties!drops!when!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 215 “The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center.” 216 “Terror Data and Trends.” 217 “Polls | Jeremy’s Knesset Insider.” 218 Teleseker Poll, “Sharon’s Kadima Could Form Next Israeli Government | Angus Reid Global,” Angus Reid Global, December 3, 2005, http://www.angusreidglobal.com/polls/13797/sharons_kadima_could_form_next_israeli_government/.

! 94! comparing!the!polls!taken!when!the!rocket!and!mortar!count!was!below!300!to!when!the! rocket!and!mortar!count!was!between!300!and!600!and!continues!to!decrease!at!higher! counts!of!rockets!and!mortars!until!the!most!extreme!levels!of!rocket!and!mortar!attacks,!at! which!point!the!variance!sharply!increases.!!In!addition,!consistent!with!Berrebi!and!Klor’s! findings!that!terrorist!attacks!increase!the!support!for!the!hardline!block,219!the!average! number!of!expected!seats!increases!for!hardlineQreligious!parties!and!decreases!for!the! centerQleftQArab!block!as!the!number!of!rockets!and!mortars!increases.!!However,!when!the! discounted!sum!of!rockets!and!mortars!is!above!1800,!this!trend!reverses!as!the!average! expected!number!of!seats!for!hardline!parties!drops!while!the!average!expected!number!of! seats!for!the!left!wing!increases.!!All!of!these!changes!above!1800!rockets!and!mortars!in! the!trends!for!variance!and!average!expected!number!of!seats!are!due!to!a!single!outlier! poll!taken!on!August!15,!2006.!!Table!1!includes!the!values!for!variance!and!averages!if!this! poll!is!not!included.!

) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) )

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 219 Berrebi and Klor, “Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism?”

! 95! Table)5.1.)Variance)and)Average)of)Expected)#)of)Seats)for)CenterZLeftZArab)and) HardZLineZReligious)Parties)at)Increased)Values)of)Rocket)and)Mortar)Attacks220)

Discounted)sum)of) x)<)300) 300)≤)x) 600)≤)x) 900)≤)x) 1800)≤)x) rockets)and)mortars! rockets)&) <)600! <)900! <)1800! <)2700! mortars!

Variance)for)HardZLineZ 66.2! 9.5! 5.4! 4.7! *.5! Religious)Parties! 37!

Variance)for)CenterZLeft) 65.9! 9.3! 5.4! 4.7! *2! Parties! 41.3!

Average)for)HardZLineZ 61.3! 65.8! 65! 66! *66.5! Religious)Parties! 63!

Average)for)CenterZLeftZ 58.7! 54.3! 55! 54.1! *53! Arab)Parties! 56.7!

Number)of)observations! 376! 36! 21! 21! *2! 3! *!refers!to!the!value!if!the!public!opinion!poll!taken!on!the!15th!of!August!2006!when!the!discounted!sum!of! 2678!rockets!and!mortars!is!not!included.!!The!unQstarred!number!includes!this!poll.! !

! The!outlying!poll!taken!August!15th,!2006!was!taken!when!the!public!was! responding!to!a!different!phenomenon!than!the!normal!cycle!of!rocket,!mortar,!and! terrorist!attacks!against!Israel!and!Israeli!targeted!killing!of!Palestinian!militants.!!The! three!polls!taken!when!the!rocket!and!mortar!value!was!above!2000!were!all!in!August!

2006!during!the!Second!Lebanon!War!when!Hezbollah!was!shooting!thousands!of!rockets! into!Israel!and!Israel!had!sent!troops!into!Lebanon.!!The!prime!minister!at!the!time,!Ehud!

Olmert,!had!taken!over!the!Kadima!party!and!benefited!from!the!enormous!popularity!that!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 220!Table!1.!indicates!the!amount!of!variance!of!the!number!of!expected!seats!for!different!levels!of!violence! for!both!scatterplots!in!Figures!3!and!4!(the!changes!in!variance!are!the!same!for!both!graphs!since!they!are! mirror!images!of!each!other).!!The!averages!provided!in!the!table!reflect!the!average!of!all!of!the!polls!taken! when!the!discounted!sum!of!rockets!and!mortars!were!within!a!certain!range,!specified!at!the!top!of!each! column.!

! 96! Ariel!Sharon!had!generated!when!he!split!from!the!Likud!party!to!create!Kadima!nine! months!earlier.!Kadima’s!support!had!dropped!in!the!six!months!after!January!4th,!2006! when!Ariel!Sharon!went!into!a!coma,!falling!from!a!remarkably!high!42!expected!seats!in!a! poll!taken!two!days!before!Sharon’s!stroke221!to!24!seats!on!July!5th,222!a!week!before!the! war.!!But,!Olmert!may!have!received!an!initial!boost!in!public!approval!as!Israelis!rallied! around!their!executive!in!what!was!initially!a!popular!war!–in!a!poll!published!six!days! after!the!start!of!the!war,!81%!of!respondents!said!they!supported!the!continuation!of! fighting.!!SeventyQeight!percent!of!the!respondents!said!Olmert’s!response!to!the!fighting! was!either!fairly!good!or!very!good223.!!Kadima’s!support!increased!to!an!expected!29!

Knesset!seats!on!August!15th!in!a!poll!taken!a!day!after!the!UN!declared!ceaseQfire.!!This! initial!public!support!for!Olmert!and!his!Kadima!party!quickly!dissipated!as!news!of! mismanagement!of!the!war!was!widely!reported.!!By!August!23rd,!63%!of!Israelis!said!

Olmert!should!resign,!and!the!expected!number!of!seats!for!Kadima!dropped!ten!seats!to!

19.224!!Again,!returning!to!Table!1,!the!poll!furthest!to!the!right!of!the!scatterplot!at!2678! rockets!and!mortars!diverges!from!the!pattern!in!that!the!support!for!the!leftQcentristQArab! block!was!exceptionally!high!and!the!support!for!the!hardlineQreligious!block!was! exceptionally!low;!this!is!primarily!an!artifact!of!both!the!lingering!effects!of!the!creation!of! the!new!party!Kadima!and!the!rallying!effect!around!the!executive!during!the!initial!stages!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 221 “Haaretz-Dialog Poll: Kadima Picks up Three More Seats,” Haaretz.com, accessed November 22, 2013, http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/haaretz-dialog-poll-kadima-picks-up-three-more-seats-1.61771. 222 “What If It Were Your Son?,” Ynet, accessed November 22, 2013, http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L- 3271315,00.html. 223 “Poll: 81 Percent Back Fighting in North,” Ynet, accessed November 26, 2013, http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3277594,00.html. 224 Sava Kfar, “Poll: 63% Ehud Olmert Should Resign,” Independent Media Review Analysis, August 25, 2006, http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=30737.

! 97! of!a!war.!If!this!poll!is!not!included!then!the!pattern!of!variance!and!the!average!number!of! expected!seats!is!consistent!with!the!other!levels!of!violence!as!seen!in!Table!1.!

!

FATALITIES!AND!PUBLIC!SUPPORT!

! The!period!of!time!when!the!number!of!rockets!was!high!is!by!and!large!distinct! from!the!period!of!time!when!the!number!of!Israeli!fatalities!was!high,!thus!creating!two! cases!within!the!same!Israeli!case.!!The!number!of!fatalities!for!Israelis!reached!its!highest! point!during!the!Second!Intifada!from!September!of!2000!to!February!2005!while!relatively! few!rockets!were!fired!into!Israel!until!after!Hamas!gained!control!of!the!Gaza!Strip!in!

2006.!!See!Figure!5!for!a!comparison!of!fatalities!and!rocket!and!mortar!launchings.! !

!

!

) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) )

! 98! Figure)5.5.))Annual)Sum)of)Israeli)Fatalities)and)Annual)Sum)of)Rockets)and)

225

AnnualIsraeliYear Civilian Sum of and Rockets Security and Fatalities Mortars 20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 0500100015002000250030003500400045005000550020406080100120140160180200220240260280300320340360380400420 Mortars0 )

420 5500 400 380 5000 360 340 4500 320 300 4000 280 3500 260 240 3000 220 200 2500 180 160 2000 140 120 1500 100 80 1000 60 40 500 Annual Sum of Rockets and Mortars Israeli Civilian and Security Fatalities 20 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year

Israeli Civilian and Security Fatalities Annual Sum of Rockets and Mortars )

1.!Fatality!data!from!B’tselem.226!!Rocket!and!Mortar!data!from!ISA227!and!the!Meir!Amit!Intelligence!and! Terorrism!Information!Center228.! !

! The!scatterplots!comparing!the!discounted!sum!of!Israeli!fatalities!and!the! combined!expected!number!of!seats!for!the!hardline!and!the!centerQleft!blocks!in!Figures!6! and!7!show!a!similar!pattern!as!the!rocket!and!mortar!scatterplots.!!However,!the!pattern! of!support!for!the!two!blocks!is!dramatically!altered!by!the!emergence!of!the!party!Kadima.!!

When!Ariel!Sharon!left!the!Likud!party!to!create!Kadima!in!November!of!2005,!he!was!by! far!the!most!popular!political!leader!in!the!Knesset.!!In!a!poll!taken!just!after!the!creation!of!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 225 In Figure 5, the Y-axis on the left indicates the total annual sum of fatalities for Israeli civilians and security personnel. The Y-axis on the right side of the graph indicates the total annual sum of rockets and mortars for each year. The x-axis indicates the year. 226 “Statistics | B’Tselem.” 227 “Terror Data and Trends.” 228 “The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center.”

! 99! Kadima,!47%!of!Israelis!said!Ariel!Sharon!was!most!suited!to!the!office!of!prime!minister;!

Amir!Peretz!of!Labor!was!a!distant!second!with!18.5%.229!!In!addition!Sharon!took!a! number!of!centrist!Likud!Knesset!members!with!him!like!Tzipi!Livni!and!Ehud!Olmert! along!with!Labor!party!chairman!and!former!prime!minister!Shimon!Perez.!!As!a!result,!the! drop!in!support!for!the!hardlineQreligious!block!and!the!increase!in!support!for!the!centerQ left!block!was!so!large!that!there!is!almost!no!overlap!when!comparing!Kadima’s!rise!and! fall!in!its!first!nine!months!to!the!rest!of!the!polls!taken!between!2000!and!2013.230!!In!

Figures!6!and!7!the!polls!taken!from!the!creation!of!Kadima!in!November!of!2005!to!the! end!of!the!IsraeliQLebanese!War!in!August!of!2006!are!represented!as!red!circles!while!the! remainder!of!the!polls!taken!before!and!after!this!period!are!black!dots.!!When!Kadima’s! peak!is!distinguished!from!the!remainder!of!the!polls,!the!familiar!funnel!pattern!of! reduced!variance!at!increasing!levels!of!violence!becomes!clear.!

One!striking!difference!when!comparing!the!fatality!scatterplots!in!Figures!5!and!6! with!the!rocket!and!mortar!scatterplots!in!Figures!6!and!7!is!that!the!average!level!of! support!for!both!the!dovish!and!hardline!blocks!remains!almost!constant,!from!the!lowest! number!of!fatalities!to!the!highest,!as!seen!in!Table!2.!!Part!of!this!consistency!may!lie!in!the! shorter!time!span!in!which!Israelis!suffered!high!fatalities!compared!to!the!longer!time! span!that!Israel!has!been!subjected!to!rocket!and!mortar!fire.!!All!of!the!polls!taken!when! the!discounted!sum!of!fatalities!was!above!10!were!taken!within!a!span!of!10!months,! although!the!averages!are!still!consistent!with!the!averages!for!the!broader!range!taken!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 229 Haaretz Service, “Poll: Peres’ Resignation Nudges 30% to Vote for Kadima,” Haaretz.com, December 1, 2005. 230 For the center-left block, the minimum and maximum number of expected seats during the first ten months of Kadima was 64 and 84 respectively while the minimum and maximum number of seats for the remainder of the polls taken before and after this period from 2000 to 2013 was 44 and 66 respectively. For the right-religious block the minimum and maximum expected number of seats during the first ten months of Kadima was 36 and 57 while the respective values before and after Kadima’s height was 54 and 76.

! 100! over!the!entire!study.!!One!possible!explanation!is!that!all!of!the!highest!levels!of!fatalities! occurred!before!Kadima!broke!from!Likud!in!2005!and!long!before!the!creation!of!the!party!

Yesh!Atid!in!2012,!another!new!party!that!was!disruptive!to!the!status!quo!in!it’s!rapid! ascent!and!decline.!!The!core!supporters!of!Likud!and!Labor!may!have!been!more!loyal! before!the!political!landscape!was!so!radically!changed!by!Kadima!and!Yesh!Atid,!resulting! in!a!more!consistent!average!level!of!support.!!In!addition,!the!emergence!of!large!centrist! parties!gave!Labor!and!Likud!supporters!a!viable!alternative!that!was!not!as!far!from!their! policy!preferences!as!a!switch!from!Labor!to!Likud!or!vice!versa.!

!

Figure)5.6.)Expected)Number)of)Seats)for)HardZLineZReligious)Parties)Compared)to)a)

RightSum Fatality Wing & discountedReligious Parties 30 Days 3638404244464850525456586062646668707274760123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233 Discounted)Sum)of)F36 atalities)Over)the)Previous)30)Days)

76 74 72 70 68 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 Right Wing & Religious Parties 42 40 38 36 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

Sum Fatality discounted 30 Days

)

1. Fatality!data!obtained!from!B’tselem.231!!! 2. Public!opinion!polls!span!from!01!December!2000!to!31!January!2014.!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 231 “Statistics | B’Tselem.”

! 101! 3. A!hollow!red!circle!indicates!the!polls!taken!from!November!25,!2005!to!August!22nd,!2006,!the! period!from!the!creation!of!Kadima!until!the!end!of!the!IsraelQLebanese!War,;!the!remaining!polls!are! black!dots.! 4. See!Appendix!A!for!sources!of!public!opinion!polls.! !

Figure)5.7.)Expected)Number)of)Seats)for)CenterZLeftZArab)Parties)Compared)to)a)

Left-Center-ArabSum Fatality discounted Parties 30 Days 4446485052545658606264666870727476788082840123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233 Discounted)Sum)of)Fatal44 ities)Over)the)Previous)30)Days)

84 82 80 78 76 74 72 70 68 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 Left-Center-Arab Parties Left-Center-Arab 52 50 48 46 44 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

Sum Fatality discounted 30 Days

)

1. Fatality!data!obtained!from!B’tselem.232!!! 2. Public!opinion!polls!span!from!01!December!2000!to!31!January!2014.! 3. A!hollow!red!circle!indicates!the!polls!taken!from!November!25,!2005!to!August!22nd,!2006,!the! period!from!the!creation!of!Kadima!until!the!end!of!the!IsraelQLebanese!War,;!the!remaining!polls!are! black!dots.! 4. See!Appendix!A!for!sources!of!public!opinion!polls.! !

Table)5.2.!Variance)of)CenterZLeftZArab)and)HardZLineZReligious)Parties)at)Increased) Values)of)Fatalities) Discounted)sum)of)fatalities) x)<)8) 8)≤)x)<) 16)≤)x)<) fatalities) 16) max) Variance)for)CenterZLeftZArab)Parties) 63.5) 8.8) 6.8) *12.5) *8.8) *6.8) Variance)for)HardZLineZReligious) 63.9) 9) 6) *12.5) *9) *6) Average)for)CenterZLeftZArab) 57.9) 57.9) 58.8) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 232 Ibid.

! 102! *54.6) *57.9) *58.8) Average)for)HardZLine)Religious) 62.1) 62) 61) *65.3) *62) *61) Number)of)observations) 412) 32) 13) *339) *32) *13) *!Values!for!variance!if!the!polls!taken!from!November!25,!2005!to!August!22nd,!2006,!the!period!from!the! creation!of!Kadima!until!the!end!of!the!IsraelQLebanese!War,!are!not!included.! !

LABOR!PARTY!

! The!expected!number!of!seats!for!the!centerQleftQArab!and!the!hardlineQreligious! blocks!show!a!pattern!of!reduced!variance!as!the!amount!of!violence!increases,!whether!the! measure!for!violence!is!the!number!of!Israeli!fatalities!or!the!number!of!rockets!and! mortars.!!With!the!Israeli!case!the!pattern!of!reduced!variance!for!individual!parties!is!not! as!clear!as!the!Palestinian!case,!because!the!Israeli!parties!have!a!high!number!of!mergers! and!splits!during!the!2000!to!2013!time!period.!!Likud,!for!example,!had!key!members! defect!to!form!Kadima!in!2005,!and!in!October!2012!Likud!joined!with!Yisrael!Beitenu.!!

Before!Yisrael!Beitenu!joined!with!Likud,!it!was!in!a!partnership!with!the!National!Union! party!from!2000!until!they!split!in!2006.!!The!Meretz!party!had!a!number!of!mergers!and! splits!as!did!Jewish!Home.!!Labor!is!one!of!the!few!parties!that!has!maintained!continuity! through!the!entire!period!considered!here.!!In!Figure!8!the!number!of!expected!seats!for!

Labor!is!compared!to!the!discounted!sum!of!Israeli!fatalities!over!the!preceding!30!days.!!

The!reduced!variance!focuses!to!a!point!of!relatively!predictable!support!at!the!highest! levels!of!violence!very!close!to!the!average!for!all!of!the!polls!for!Labor:!Labor!was!expected! to!win!18!seats!in!the!polls!taken!at!the!highest!level!of!fatalities,!while!the!average!for!all!of! the!polls!for!Labor!is!17.6.!!What!is!surprising!with!the!pattern!of!support!for!Labor!is!that! there!is!an!increase!in!the!level!of!support!in!the!60!polls!taken!between!a!discounted!sum! of!6!and!24!fatalities!before!the!level!support!returns!to!the!average!when!the!count!of!

! 103! fatalities!was!at!its!highest!level.!!Normally!support!for!left!of!center!parties!declines!as! violence!increases.!!This!question!will!be!explored!in!the!next!section!with!a!longitudinal! view!of!the!data.!

!

Figure)5.8,!Expected)Number)of)Seats)for)the)Labor)Party)Compared)to)a)Discounted)

LaborSum Fatality Party discounted 30 Days 5678910111213141516171819202122232425262728012342930313233 Sum)of)Fatalities)Over)the)Previous)30)Days5 )

28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15

Labor Party 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

Sum Fatality discounted 30 Days

)

1.!Fatality!data!obtained!from!B’tselem.233!!Public!opinion!polls!span!from!01!December!2000!to!31!January! 2014.!See!Appendix!A!for!sources!of!public!opinion!polls.!! !

Table)5.3.)Variance)and)Average)of)Polls)at)Increased)Levels)of)Fatalities!

6)≤))x)<)12) Discounted)sum) x)≤)6) 12)≤)x)<)18) 18)≤)x)<)24) 24)≤)x) of)fatalities! fatalities! fatalities! fatalities! fatalities! fatalities!

Variance! 20.66! 5.81! 2.78! 2.7! 0! Average) 17.3! 19.8! 19.8! 21.1! 18!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 233

! 104! Number)of) 446! 29! 24! 7! 2! observations! !

!

! The!pattern!of!support!for!the!Labor!party!is!less!consistent!when!the!number!of! expected!seats!is!compared!to!the!discounted!sum!of!rockets!and!mortars,!although!as!seen! before!the!variance!continues!to!decrease!as!the!measure!of!violence!increases.!!Figure!9! compares!the!expected!number!of!seats!for!Labor!to!a!discounted!sum!of!rockets!and! mortars;!Table!4!shows!the!change!in!variance!and!the!change!in!the!average!of!polls!for! five!levels!of!rocket!and!mortar!fire.!!The!spread!between!the!minimum!and!maximum! expected!number!of!seats!consistently!narrows!from!4!to!30!seats!at!the!lowest!count!of! rockets!and!mortars!to!two!polls!taken!on!the!same!day!when!the!value!of!rockets!and! mortars!was!1074,!predicting!17!and!19!seats!for!Labor,!once!again!focused!at!the!average! of!17.6!!seats!for!all!of!the!polls!taken!when!the!value!for!mortars!and!rockets!was!below!

1100.!!Between!the!values!of!1100!and!1800!Labor!benefited!from!an!increase!in!public! support!up!to!an!average!of!20!expected!seats,!which!is!surprising!for!a!left!of!center!party,! but!this!support!erodes!for!the!remaining!5!polls!above!the!discounted!sum!of!1800!rockets! and!mortars!down!to!an!average!of!13.4!expected!seats.!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

! 105!

Figure)5.9)Expected)Number)of)Seats)for)the)Labor)Party)Compared)to)a)Discounted)

LaborSum Rocket Party and Mortar Count 40 days (10 flat + 30 discounted) 56789101112131415161718192021222324252627280100200300400500600700800900100011001200130014001500160017001800190020002100220023002400250026002700 Sum)of)Rockets)and)Mortars)Over)the)Pre5 vious)40)Days)

28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15

Labor Party 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700

Sum Rocket and Mortar Count 40 days (10 flat + 30 discounted)

)

1.!Rocket!and!mortar!data!collected!from!the!ISA234!and!the!Meir!Amit!Intelligence!and!Terorrism! Information!Center.235!Public!opinion!polls!span!from!01!December!2000!to!31!January!2014.!See!Appendix!A! for!sources!of!public!opinion!polls.! !

Table)5.4.)Variance)of)Polls)for)the)Expected)Number)of)Seats)for)Labor)Compared)to) the)Discounted)Sum)of)Rockets)and)Mortar) 500)≤))x)<) Discounted) x)≤)500) 1000) 1000)≤)x)<) 1500)≤)x)<) 2000)≤)x) sum)of) rockets)&) 1500) 2000) rockets)&) rockets)and) mortars! rockets)&) rockets)&) rockets)&) mortars! mortars! mortars! mortars! mortars!

Variance! 20.97! 4.39! 2.75! 2.7! 2.3! Average) 17.6! 17! 19.3! 19.9! 13.4! ! ! ! ! ! Number)of) observations! 447! 32! 9! 15! 5! !

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 234 “Terror Data and Trends.” 235 “The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center.”

! 106! !

LONGITUDINAL!VIEW!OF!THE!PERIODS!OF!HIGHEST!ESCALATION!

All!of!the!polls!taken!when!the!discounted!sum!of!rockets!and!mortars!were!in!the! range!of!800!to!1800!were!from!a!short!period!of!time,!November!22nd,!2012!to!December!

14th,!2012,!just!prior!to!the!January!2013!Israeli!election.!!November!22nd!was!the!first!day! of!a!ceaseQfire!that!has!lasted!from!that!date!until!after!the!end!of!the!period!considered!in! this!study.!!For!the!Labor!party,!the!polls!during!this!period!show!a!higher!number!of! expected!seats!relative!to!its!own!average!than!is!typical!for!a!leftQofQcenter!party.!!

However,!a!longitudinal!view!of!this!data!shows!that!just!prior!to!the!dramatic!spike!in! rocket!and!mortar!fire,!Labor,!at!27!seats,!had!its!highest!weekly!average!of!polls!since!

November!of!2005,!just!before!the!creation!of!Kadima.!!In!Figure!10!it!appears!that!Labor’s! unusually!high!level!of!support!in!spite!of!the!extreme!level!of!violence!was!a!residual!of! previous!support,!and!that!this!support!evaporated!over!the!following!two!months.!!What’s! more,!the!spike!in!support!was!probably!largely!due!to!a!brief!drop!in!support!for!Likud! and!Yisrael!Beitenu!as!these!two!parties!combined!just!prior!to!the!January!2013!election.!!

In!Figure!11!the!green,!hashed!line!reflects!the!sum!of!the!expected!number!of!seats!for!

Likud!and!Yisrael!Beitenu!as!separate!parties.!!The!solid!red!line!with!square!data!points! represents!Likud!and!Yisrael!Beitenu!as!a!joint!list.!!When!they!ran!together,!Likud!and!

Yisrael!Beitenu!collectively!lost!eight!seats!in!the!weekly!average!of!polls!from!October!20th,!

2012!to!October!27th,!while!Labor!increased!an!average!of!8!seats!in!the!same!period.!!By! the!November!3rd!weekly!average!the!joint!list!of!Likud!and!Yisrael!Beitenu!had!already! recovered!five!of!those!seats,!but!also!surprisingly!for!a!centerQright!and!hardline!joint!list,!

! 107! they!did!not!receive!a!boost!in!support!after!the!spike!in!violence.!!This!was!largely!due!to!a! loss!of!seats!to!Yesh!Atid,!a!new!party!formed!by!Yair!Lapid.!

Figure)5.10.)Support)for)Labor)in)Response)to)November)2012)Escalation)of)Rocket)

Labor Party Average of Polls for Week

Weekly Sum of Rockets and Mortars ISA

1617181920212223242526270501001502002503003504004505005506006507007508008509009501000105009/02/1209/09/1209/16/1209/23/1209/30/1210/07/1210/14/1210/21/1210/28/1211/04/1211/11/1211/18/1211/25/1212/02/1212/09/1212/16/1212/23/1201/01/1301/08/1301/15/1301/22/1301/29/13WeeklyLabor Party Sum Averageof Rockets of Pollsand Mortars for Week ISA

var4 and)Mortar)Firevar4 )

1050 27 1000 950 26 900 850 25 800 750 24 700 23 650 600 22 550 500 21 450 400 20 350 300 19 250 200 18 150 Weekly Sum Weekly of Rockets and Mortars ISA 100 17 50 Labor Party Average of Polls for Week 0 16

var4 09/02/12 09/09/12 09/16/12 09/23/12 09/30/12 10/07/12 10/14/12 10/21/12 10/28/12 11/04/12 11/11/12 11/18/12 11/25/12 12/02/12 12/09/12 12/16/12 12/23/12 01/01/13 01/08/13 01/15/13 01/22/13 01/29/13

Weekly Sum of Rockets and Mortars ISA Labor Party Average of Polls for Week !

1.!Data!on!the!monthly!total!sum!of!rocket!and!mortars!fired!from!Gaza!obtained!from!the!Israeli!Security! Agency236!and!the!Meir!Amit!Intelligence!and!Terorrism!Information!Center.237!!See!Appendix!A!for! information!about!polling!data.! !

!

!

!

!

!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 236 “Terror Data and Trends.” 237 “The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center.”

! 108!

Figure)5.11.)Support)for)Several)Parties)in)Response)to)November)2012)Escalation)of)

Weekly Sum of Rockets and Mortars ISA

Expected # of Seats Average of Polls for Week

02468101214161820222426283032343638404244501001502002503003504004505005506006507007508008509009501000105009/02/1209/09/1209/16/1209/23/1209/30/1210/07/1210/14/1210/21/1210/28/1211/04/1211/11/1211/18/1211/25/1212/02/1212/09/1212/16/1212/23/1201/01/1301/08/1301/15/1301/22/1301/29/13WeeklyLaborLikudYeshKadima Atid +IsraelParty SumAverageYisrael Average Beitenu Averageof BeitenuRockets of of PollsAverage of Polls AveragePolls andfor for WeekMortarsoffor Week Polls ofWeek Polls ISAfor forWeek Week

var4 Rocket)and)Mortar)Firevar4 )

1050 44 1000 42 950 40 900 38 850 36 800 34 750 32 700 30 28 650 26 600 24 550 22 500 20 450 18 400 16 350 14 300 12 250 10 200 8 150 6 100 4 50 2

0 0 Expected # of Seats Average of Polls for Week Weekly Sum Weekly of Rockets and Mortars ISA

var4 09/02/12 09/09/12 09/16/12 09/23/12 09/30/12 10/07/12 10/14/12 10/21/12 10/28/12 11/04/12 11/11/12 11/18/12 11/25/12 12/02/12 12/09/12 12/16/12 12/23/12 01/01/13 01/08/13 01/15/13 01/22/13 01/29/13

Weekly Sum of Rockets and Mortars ISA Labor Party Average of Polls for Week

Likud + Yisrael Beitenu Average of Polls for Week Yesh Atid Average of Polls for Week

Kadima Average of Polls for Week Likud Israel Beitenu Average of Polls for Week !

1.!Data!on!the!monthly!total!sum!of!rocket!and!mortars!fired!from!Gaza!obtained!from!the!Israeli!Security! Agency238!and!the!Meir!Amit!Intelligence!and!Terorrism!Information!Center.239!See!Appendix!A!for! information!about!polling!data.! !

! The!highest!spike!in!rocket!and!mortar!attacks!occurred!during!the!IsraelQLebanon! war!in!July!and!August,!2006.!!In!Figure!9,!all!of!the!polls!for!the!expected!number!of!seats! for!Labor!when!the!discounted!sum!of!rockets!and!mortars!is!above!1800,!the!period!after! the!Second!Lebanon!War,!are!well!below!the!average!of!17.6.!!This!is!not!entirely! unexpected!for!a!leftQofQcenter!party,!but!it’s!possible!that!Labor!took!a!larger!loss!due!to! the!mismanagement!of!the!IsraelQLebanon!War.!!As!mentioned!above!and!as!can!be!seen!in!

Figure!13,!the!support!for!Kadima!plunged!after!voters!held!the!Kadima!prime!minister,!

Ehud!Olmert,!accountable!for!the!war’s!outcome.!!In!addition,!former!Labor!Chairman!Amir! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 238 “Terror Data and Trends.” 239 “The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center.”

! 109! Peretz!was!Defense!Minister!under!Ehud!Olmert.!!Peretz’s!approval!ratings!dropped!from!

37%!before!the!war!to!14%!in!the!September!21st!poll!after!the!war,!which!likely!dragged! support!for!Labor!down!as!well.240!!Figure!12!shows!a!longitudinal!view!of!the!expected! number!of!seats!for!Labor!compared!to!the!sum!of!rockets!and!mortars.!!Support!for!Labor! had!already!begun!to!slide!before!the!Second!Lebanon!War!because!the!rocket!fire!from!

Gaza,!which!appears!small!in!Figure!12!relative!to!the!rockets!from!Lebanon,!was!actually! relatively!high,!with!134!rockets!and!mortars!fired!in!June!and!197!fired!in!July.241!!Labor! didn’t!recover!until!June!of!the!following!year.!!Figure!13!illustrates!how!Likud!and!Yisrael!

Beitenu!benefited!from!the!Second!Lebanon!War!and!the!dramatic!reversal!of!fortunes!for!

Kadima.!!Likud!and!Yisrael!Beitenu!were!both!expected!to!win!11!seats!in!the!poll!taken! just!before!the!Second!Lebanon!War.!!By!October!15th!Yisrael!Beitenu!had!climbed!to!22! seats!while!Likud!reached!29!seats!by!November!11th.!!The!benefit!for!hardline!parties!is! generally!short!lived.!!In!this!case,!the!increase!in!support!that!Yisrael!Beitenu!gained!had! returned!to!preQcrisis!levels!within!three!months.!!Likud,!however,!has!remained!at!a! higher!level!of!support!over!the!seven!and!a!half!years!since!this!conflict.!!The!reason!lies!in! the!rise!and!fall!of!Kadima.!!Kadima’s!growth!came!at!the!expense!of!support!for!Likud.!!

Kadima!never!fully!recovered!from!their!loss!of!support!after!the!Second!Lebanon!War,!and! so!rather!than!gaining!a!permanent!benefit!from!this!conflict,!Likud!simply!returned!to! their!preQKadima!levels!of!support.!

!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 240 “Olmert, Peretz Ratings Hit New Low,” Haaretz.com, accessed January 20, 2014, http://www.haaretz.com/print- edition/news/olmert-peretz-ratings-hit-new-low-1.197779. 241 “Terror Data and Trends.”

! 110! Figure)5.12.)!Support)for)Labor)Relative)to)Rocket)Fire)During)2006)Second)Lebanon)

242

Weekly01000200030004000Total Rockets Average and of Mortars Polls for Labor

1314151617181920RocketsMonthlyWeekly Average TotalFrom LebanonRockets of Polls andWar for Mortars Labor ISA 02/05/0602/19/0603/05/0603/19/0604/02/0604/16/0604/30/0605/14/0605/28/0606/11/0606/25/0607/09/0607/23/0608/06/0608/20/0609/03/0609/17/0610/01/0610/15/0610/29/0611/12/0611/26/0612/10/06

edate Waredate !

20 4000

19

18 3000

17

2000 16

15 1000

Total Rockets and Mortars 14 Weekly Average Weekly of Polls for Labor

0 13

edate 02/05/06 02/19/06 03/05/06 03/19/06 04/02/06 04/16/06 04/30/06 05/14/06 05/28/06 06/11/06 06/25/06 07/09/06 07/23/06 08/06/06 08/20/06 09/03/06 09/17/06 10/01/06 10/15/06 10/29/06 11/12/06 11/26/06 12/10/06

Rockets From Lebanon War Monthly Total Rockets and Mortars ISA Weekly Average of Polls for Labor !

1.!Data!on!rockets!fired!during!the!2006!Second!Lebanon!War!obtained!from!the!Israel!Ministry!of!Foreign! Affairs.243!!Data!on!the!monthly!total!sum!of!rocket!and!mortars!fired!from!Gaza!were!obtained!from!the! Israeli!Security!Agency244!and!the!Meir!Amit!Intelligence!and!Terorrism!Information!Center.245!See!Appendix! A!for!information!on!Labor!Poll!data.! ! ) ) ) ) )

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 242!For!Figure!12,!the!yQaxis!on!the!left!indicates!the!sum!of!rockets!and!mortars.!However,!in!this!graph!the! height!of!the!monthly!sum!of!rockets!and!mortars!does!not!reflect!the!daily!count,!but!the!total!for!each! month!and!the!base!of!each!cell!reflects!the!span!of!the!month.!!The!height!of!the!sum!of!rockets!fired!during! the!Second!Lebanon!War!reflects!the!total!number!of!rockets!fired!during!the!whole!conflict!rather!than!a! daily!count,!and!the!base!of!this!cell!reflects!the!length!of!the!conflict.!!The!right!yQaxis!indicates!the!averages! of!the!polls!over!seven!day!periods!predicting!the!expected!number!of!seats!for!Labor.!The!xQaxis!indicates!the! date.!!! 243 “The Second Lebanon War (2006),” GxMSDev, accessed January 17, 2014, http://mfa.gov.il/MFA/AboutIsrael/History/Pages/Hizbullah attack in northern Israel and Israels response 12-Jul- 2006.aspx. 244 “Terror Data and Trends.” 245 “The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center.”

! 111! Figure)5.13)Support)for)Likud,)Yisrael)Beitenu,)Meretz,)and)Kadima)Relative)to)

246

01000200030004000Monthly Sum of Rockets & Mortars

Average of Weekly Polls for Expected # of Seats 46810121416182022242628303234363802/05/0602/19/0603/05/0603/19/0604/02/0604/16/0604/30/0605/14/0605/28/0606/11/0606/25/0607/09/0607/23/0608/06/0608/20/0609/03/0609/17/0610/01/0610/15/0610/29/0611/12/0611/26/0612/10/06RocketsMonthlyLikudMeretzYisraelKadima Average Beitenu Average AverageTotalFrom LebanonRockets ofAverage ofof Polls PollsPolls forandWar offorfor WeekPollsMortars WeekWeek for ISAWeek

edate Rocket)Fire)During)2006)Second)Lebanon)Waredate )

38

4000 36 34 32 30 28 3000 26 24 22 20 2000 18 16 14 12

1000 10 8 6 Monthly Sum of Rockets & Mortars

0 4 Average of PollsWeekly for Expected # of Seats

edate 02/05/06 02/19/06 03/05/06 03/19/06 04/02/06 04/16/06 04/30/06 05/14/06 05/28/06 06/11/06 06/25/06 07/09/06 07/23/06 08/06/06 08/20/06 09/03/06 09/17/06 10/01/06 10/15/06 10/29/06 11/12/06 11/26/06 12/10/06

Rockets From Lebanon War Monthly Total Rockets and Mortars ISA

Likud Average of Polls for Week Meretz Average of Polls for Week

Yisrael Beitenu Average of Polls for Week Kadima Average of Polls for Week !

1.!Data!on!rockets!fired!during!the!2006!Second!Lebanon!War!obtained!from!the!Israel!Ministry!of!Foreign! Affairs.247!Data!on!the!monthly!total!sum!of!rocket!and!mortars!fired!from!Gaza!obtained!from!the!Israeli! Security!Agency248!and!the!Meir!Amit!Intelligence!and!Terorrism!Information!Center.249!See!Appendix!A!for! information!on!polling!data.! !

! The!scatterplots!above!support!previous!findings!that!suggest!support!for!hardline! parties!increases!when!a!voting!population!is!subjected!to!violence.!!Berrebi!and!Klor!find! that!a!terrorist!attack!increases!the!support!for!the!hardline!block!by!1.35!percentage! points.250!!However,!this!shift!in!support!is!not!the!full!story!in!terms!of!how!voters!respond! to!violence.!!Collectively,!voters!appear!to!focus!their!decisionQmaking!and!vote!more! consistently!as!the!level!of!violence!increases.!!In!the!next!two!sections!I!will!explore!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 246 See footnote for Figure 12 for explanation of graph. 247 “The Second Lebanon War (2006).” 248 “Terror Data and Trends.” 249 “The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center.” 250 Berrebi and Klor, “Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism?”

! 112! reasons!why!voters!are!more!consistent!in!their!party!preferences!as!the!amount!of! violence!increases.!

!

UNDERLYING!PREFERENCES:!SUBSTANTIVE!POLL!QUESTIONS!

! The!patterns!of!Israeli!responses!to!opinion!poll!questions!about!specific!issues! helps!to!shed!light!on!patterns!of!support!for!Israeli!political!parties.!!For!questions!asking! about!affective!issues,!for!example!“are!you!worried!you!or!a!member!of!your!family!may! be!harmed,”!and!for!questions!asking!about!issues!related!to!the!peace!process,!like!the! willingness!to!remove!settlements,!the!same!pattern!appears!of!reduced!variance!in! response!to!an!increase!in!violence.!!!

! To!explore!the!effects!of!rocket!and!mortar!fire!on!Israelis,!I!use!the!following! questions!and!answers!from!the!Joint!Israeli!Palestinian!Poll!listed!below.251!!Questions!1! through!3!are!relevant!to!Israeli!Jews’!attitudes!to!the!peace!process,!particularly!with! regard!to!the!willingness!to!make!concessions,!the!perceived!likelihood!of!the!success!of! negotiations!and!the!amount!of!time!to!reach!that!settlement.!!Questions!4!and!5!deal!with! affective!issues!relating!to!fear!and!a!sense!of!national!well!being.!!In!Figure!14!the!variance! of!one!standardized!response!to!each!question!is!plotted!on!the!yQaxis!in!comparison!to!the! discounted!sum!of!rockets!and!mortars!over!the!previous!40!days.!!The!variance!was! calculated!for!all!of!the!polls!taken!within!three!levels!of!violence:!a!discounted!rate!of! under!200!rockets!and!mortars,!from!200!to!400,!and!more!than!400!over!the!previous!40! days.!

!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 251 “Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll.”

! 113! • Question!1.!“To!what!extent!do!you!support!or!oppose!dismantling!most!of!the! settlements!in!the!territories!as!part!of!a!peace!agreement!with!the!Palestinians?”! o Answer:!Definitely!support! • Question!2.!“In!your!opinion!is!it!possible!or!impossible!to!reach!these!days!a!final! status!settlement!with!the!Palestinians?”! o Answer:!Definitely!possible! • Question!3.!“In!general,!how!soon!do!you!think!will!a!political!settlement!between! Israel!and!the!Palestinians!be!achieved?”! o Answer:!In!the!next!few!years! • Question!4!“To!what!extent!are!you!worried!or!not!worried!that!you!or!a!member!of! your!family!could!be!hurt!by!Arabs!in!your!daily!life?”! o Answer:!Very!worried! • Question!5.!“How!would!you!describe!Israel’s!condition!in!general!these!days?”! o Answer:!Very!bad! ! !

Figure)5.14.)Variance)of)Five)Substantive)Poll)Questions)Compared)to)Discounted)

VarianceSumQuestion Rocket of12345 Standardizedand Mortar Count Values 40 of days Poll (10Questions flat + 30 discounted) 0.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.911.11.2200250300350400450500550600650700750800850900 Sum)of)Rockets)and)Mortars)Over)Previous)40)Days0 !!

1.2

1.1

1

.9

.8

.7

.6

.5

.4

.3

.2

.1

0 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900

Sum Rocket and Mortar Count 40 days (10 flat + 30 discounted) Variance of Standardized Values of Poll Questions

Question 1 Question 2 Question 3 Question 4 Question 5 !

1.!JIPP!polls!obtained!from!the!Abba!Eban!Centre,!Harry!S.!Truman!Research!Institute!for!the!Advancement!of! Peace.252! !

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 252 Ibid.

! 114! The!variance!of!the!standardized!responses!for!all!five!questions!drops!significantly!when! comparing!the!variance!of!the!polls!taken!at!the!lowest!level!of!rocket!and!mortar!attacks!to! the!midQlevel.!!The!variance!rises!slightly!at!the!highest!level!of!rocket!and!mortar!attacks! for!questions!1!and!5.253!!It!increases!more!substantially!for!Question!2,!with!regard!to!the! possibility!of!reaching!a!final!status!agreement!with!the!Palestinians,!but!the!increase!in! variance!is!due!primarily!to!their!only!being!two!polls!taken!when!the!discounted!rate!of! rockets!and!mortars!was!above!400.!!Overall!there!is!a!pattern!of!decreased!variance!in!the! range!of!responses!to!these!questions!as!the!rate!of!rocket!and!mortar!attacks!increases.!

! There!is!a!parallel!between!the!response!of!Israelis!to!rocket!attacks!and!their! formation!of!party!preferences.!!Comparing!Figures!14!and!Figures!1!and!2,!in!both! instances!respondents!focus!their!preferences!as!a!response!to!the!violence.!!The!question! still!remains!about!how!the!rocket!attacks!are!!leading!to!a!focusing!of!preferences!on! substantive!issues.!

!

SALIENT!ISSUE!

! One!possible!explanation!for!the!focusing!effect!in!the!preferences!of!Israeli!voters! may!lie!in!the!competition!of!values!underlying!specific!preferences!for!political!parties!or! opinions!about!specific!issues.!!If!a!set!of!relevant!values!are!all!equally!held,!then!voters! may!be!more!likely!to!shift!their!preferences!if!parties!satisfy!some!values!but!not!others.!!

Likewise,!voters’!opinions!on!specific!issues!may!shift!as!the!dominant!frame!changes.!!

However,!if!some!values!become!more!salient,!it!would!be!easier!to!determine!which!party!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 253 For question 3, there is no variance at the highest level of rocket and mortar attacks because this poll question was only asked one time during this level of violence.

! 115! satisfies!those!values,!and!the!frame!for!understanding!specific!issues!would!remain!more! constant.!

! One!set!of!poll!questions!asked!in!the!Joint!Israeli!Palestinian!Polls,!JIPP,!as!well!as! the!National!Election!Studies,!NES,!asks!Israeli!respondents!to!rank!order!one!of!four! values:!peace,!a!Jewish!majority!in!Israel,!democracy,!or!greater!Israel.!!There!are!tradeQoffs! between!these!values.!!For!example,!if!it!is!important!for!a!respondent!that!Israel!expand!its! territory!east!all!the!way!to!the!Jordan!River!(Greater!Israel)!then!the!number!of!

Palestinians!within!the!new!borders!would!reach!a!majority,!undermining!the!value!of! having!a!majority!of!Israelis!be!Jewish.!!When!comparing!the!rank!ordering!of!these! preferences!as!the!level!of!violence!increases,!two!of!the!responses!diverge!and!become! salient!issues.!

! The!“most!important!value”!question!was!only!asked!ten!times!in!the!JIPP!polls,! ranging!from!2002!to!2012.!!The!same!question!was!asked!in!the!four!NES!election!studies! done!during!this!period,!however!because!NES!does!their!polls!in!a!number!of!waves,!each! consisting!of!an!independent!random!sample,!the!total!number!of!NES!polls!comes!to!12.!!

Because!the!number!of!polls!is!still!relatively!small,!I!created!an!index!of!violence!that! includes!the!discounted!sum!of!rocket,!mortar,!and!fatalities!over!the!preceding!30!days,! thereby!creating!a!measure!of!violence!that!spans!both!the!years!of!the!Second!Intifada! from!2000!to!2005,!and!the!years!of!high!rocket!and!mortar!fire!from!2006!to!2012.!!!The! number!of!rockets!and!mortars!is!much!higher!than!the!number!of!fatalities,!so!I!combined! the!standardized!values!of!these!variables.!!However,!when!standardizing!the!values,!I!used! the!average!and!standard!deviation!of!the!number!of!rockets!mortars!and!fatalities!for!the! three!years!preceding!each!poll.!!As!a!result,!the!measure!of!how!much!the!current!level!of!

! 116! violence!deviates!from!the!norm!is!relative!to!the!respondent’s!experience,!rather!than! calculating!the!relative!increase!in!violence!in!comparison!to!fatalities!and!rockets!that! would!occur!years!after!a!given!poll!was!taken.!!In!Figure!15!the!yQaxis!indicates!an!average! of!the!polls!giving!one!of!the!four!values!as!their!first!or!second!most!important!value.!!The! average!is!taken!over!three!ranges!of!violence!on!the!index:!under!1,!from!1!to!3,!and!above!

3!(there!are!red,!vertical!reference!lines!indicating!the!separation!of!the!polls!into!the!three! levels!of!violence.)!!The!xQaxis!indicates!the!index!composite!of!rocket,!mortar,!and! fatalities.!

!

Figure)5.15.)Most)Important)Value)

Of the following four values which is the most important? %StandardizedPeaceJewishDemocracyGreater of Israeli 1st Majority Israel or Jews1st 2ndDiscounted1st or1st or2nd or 2nd 2nd Sum Rockets Mortars & Fatalities 012345678 262830323436384042444648505254565860

Of the following four values which is the most important?

60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 % of Israeli Jews 34 32 30 28 26

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Standardized Discounted Sum Rockets Mortars & Fatalities

Peace 1st or 2nd Jewish Majority 1st or 2nd Democracy 1st or 2nd Greater Israel 1st or 2nd !

1. JIPP!polls!obtained!from!the!Abba!Eban!Centre,!Harry!S.!Truman!Research!Institute!for!the! Advancement!of!Peace.254! 2. Polls!also!used!from!INES,!Israel!National!Election!Studies.255! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 254 “Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll.”

! 117! !

! The!percentage!of!Israelis!who!indicated!peace!was!their!first!or!second!most! important!value!increased!and!then!plateaued!at!the!highest!level!of!violence,!from!58.4%! up!to!60%!and!then!returned!back!down!to!59.4%.!!!The!percentage!who!chose!Jewish!

Majority!as!their!most!important!value!increased!three!percentage!points!from!the!lowest! level!of!violence!up!to!the!highest,!bringing!it!to!the!same!level!as!those!who!chose!peace.!!

Democracy!dropped!almost!six!percentage!points,!while!Greater!Israel!increased!three! percentage!points.!!See!Table!5!for!the!averages!of!these!polls.!

With!the!decline!in!democracy!as!an!important!goal!relative!to!the!other!values,!Israeli! voters!would!have!an!easier!time!selecting!parties!that!fit!their!primary!values!of!ending! the!conflict,!whether!through!diplomacy!for!liberal!voters!or!through!military!strength!for! conservative!voters.!!Similarly,!voters!could!form!opinions!on!specific!policies!issues!like! the!settlements!and!the!importance!of!peace!negotiations!and!subsequently!the!parties!that! fit!those!preferences!more!easily!when!the!field!of!primary!values!to!satisfy!is!narrowed.!!

!

Table)5.5.)Most)Important)Value)

Range)of)values) x)<)1) 1)≤)x)<)3) 3)≤)x) on)violence)index) Peace)is)the)1st)or) 58.4) 60.1) 59.5) 2nd)most)) important)value) Jewish)Majority)is) 56) 58.1) 59.2) the)1st)or)2nd)most)) important)value) Democracy)is)the) 54.6) 53) 49) 1st)or)2nd)most)) important)value) Greater)Israel)is) 26.3) 26.2) 30) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 255 Arian, “The Israel National Election Studies.”

! 118! the)1st)or)2nd)most)) important)value) Number)of) observations) 12! 8! 2! 1. JIPP!polls!obtained!from!the!Abba!Eban!Centre,!Harry!S.!Truman!Research!Institute!for!the! Advancement!of!Peace.256! 2. Polls!also!used!from!INES,!Israel!National!Election!Studies.257! ! ! CONCLUSION!

! The!pattern!of!reduced!variance!in!response!to!increased!levels!of!violence!is! consistent!between!the!Israeli!and!Palestinian!cases.!!In!this!chapter!I!compared!the! changes!in!variance!for!Israeli!political!parties!relative!to!two!measures!of!violence,!a! discounted!sum!of!rockets!and!mortars!as!well!as!a!discounted!sum!of!fatalities!over!a! period!of!time!prior!to!each!opinion!poll.!!Because!these!two!forms!of!violence!occur!during! largely!separate!time!periods,!this!creates!two!cases!out!of!the!Israeli!case.!!The!amount!of! variance!decreases!for!parties!across!the!political!spectrum!and!during!both!of!the!time! periods!within!this!study,!the!Second!Intifada!from!2000!to!2005,!and!after!Hamas!gained! control!of!the!Gaza!strip!and!subsequently!engaged!in!heavy!rocket!and!mortar!fire.!!!

! Specific!political!views!that!are!relevant!to!the!conflict!follow!the!same!pattern!of! response!to!violence!as!the!pattern!of!support!for!political!parties.!!As!the!level!of!violence! increases,!Israeli!Jews!respond!more!consistently!to!questions!involving!the!peace!process,! their!perception!of!threat!and!their!sense!of!national!well!being.!!I!suggest!that!a!possible! explanation!that!may!contribute!to!this!increase!in!consistency!in!party!preferences!and! positions!on!specific!political!issues!may!lie!in!how!the!underlying!values!are!shaped!by!the! ongoing!violence.!!As!the!number!of!rockets,!mortars,!and!fatalities!increases,!the!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 256 “Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll.” 257 Arian, “The Israel National Election Studies.”

! 119! importance!of!peace!remains!the!top!priority,!while!the!importance!of!having!a!Jewish! majority!increases!at!the!expense!of!the!concerns!about!the!quality!of!democracy!in!Israel.!!

This!narrows!the!field!of!competing!values!and!may!simplify!the!selection!process!for! political!parties!and!lead!to!more!consistent!frames!to!understand!specific!political! questions.!

The!current!view!of!the!response!of!voters!to!violence!is!that!it!drives!voters!to! hardline!parties.!!The!findings!in!this!chapter!are!mostly!consistent!with!this!position,! however!the!response!of!voters!is!more!complex!than!this.!!This!has!important!implications! in!terms!of!how!much!confidence!we!can!have!in!democratic!institutions!in!states!that!are! subjected!to!high!levels!of!violence.!!While!there!is!some!shift!to!the!hardline!parties,!voters! also!focus!on!the!solution!that!they!believe!will!take!them!out!of!their!current!crisis,!and! this!solution!differs!depending!on!the!voters’!political!beliefs!extant!before!the!crisis.!!!

!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

! 120! CHAPTER)6:)CONCLUSION)

! ! This!research!project!has!explored!the!effects!of!violence!on!the!party!preferences!of! voters.!!I!have!attempted!to!provide!a!more!nuanced!look!at!how!hardline!and!militant! parties!benefit!from!violent!conflict!and!moderate!and!dovish!parties!lose!support.!!

Building!on!work!from!Jaeger!et!al.!(2012)!who!show!that!the!benefit!to!hardline!parties! quickly!dissipates,258!my!primary!purpose!is!to!reject!the!hypothesis!that!hardline!parties! gain!a!consistent!and!large!increase!in!support!that!has!lasting!effect.!!An!additional!finding! is!that!voter!preferences!become!more!consistent!at!higher!levels!of!violence.!!Using!first! the!Palestinian!case!and!then!the!Israeli!case,!I!first!verify!that!the!variance!of!the!level!of! support!for!each!party!decreases!as!the!violence!increases.!!I!then!explore!some!possible! explanations!for!this!phenomenon.!!Finally,!I!explore!related!literature!to!provide!context! for!interpreting!the!results.!

! In!the!Palestinian!chapter,!using!polling!data!from!PCPSR,!I!run!simple!regressions! estimating!the!effect!of!violence!on!party!support.!I!compare!the!effects!of!increasingly! larger!spans!of!time!with!a!discounted!sum!of!fatalities!on!the!percentage!of!people!who! support!each!of!the!parties.!I!find!that!the!effects!of!the!violence!become!much!smaller! when!the!lag!period!prior!to!each!opinion!poll!is!larger!than!40!days.!!!I!then!look!at!the! data!longitudinally,!comparing!the!seven!highest!episodes!of!Palestinian!fatalities!to! compare!how!the!percentage!of!people!who!support!the!Palestinian!parties!after!a!violent! episode!compares!to!the!support!just!prior!to!the!violence,!and!to!see!how!long!this!effect! lasts!by!looking!at!the!3!polls!taken!after!each!violent!episode.259!!When!looking!at!the!most!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 258 Jaeger et al., “The Struggle for Palestinian Hearts and Minds,” 360, 362. 259 The PCPSR polls are taken about every 3 months, with some exceptions for special polls.

! 121! violent!episodes,!only!Hamas!receives!a!consistent!benefit.!!The!norm!for!all!of!the!parties! is!to!either!quickly!lose!the!benefit!they!gained!or!to!quickly!recover!the!support!lost!as!a! result!of!intense!conflict.!!!

I!also!combine!the!percentage!of!people!who!support!the!militant!parties!as!one! block!and!the!more!moderate!members!of!the!Palestinian!Authority!into!another!block.!!I! calculated!the!variance!for!low,!medium,!and!high!levels!of!violence!and!found!that!the! amount!of!variance!decreases!as!the!level!of!violence!increases.!!I!then!did!the!same! analysis!for!individual!parties.!!While!the!largest!parties,!like!Fatah!and!Hamas!as!well!as! some!of!the!smaller!parties,!like!PFLP!and!Third!Way,!have!a!decrease!in!variance!as! violence!increases,!other!parties!like!PPP,!DFLP,!and!Islamic!Jihad!do!not.!!In!the!second! half!of!the!chapter!I!suggest!a!possible!reason!why!this!is!the!case.!

! One!possible!reason!for!the!decrease!in!variance!is!that!when!voters!feel!threatened! by!violence,!they!make!conflicting!demands!on!their!representatives.!!Some!voters!want!a! diplomatic!solution!to!the!conflict,!while!others!are!looking!for!parties!that!demonstrate! strength!or!are!willing!to!retaliate.!!For!example,!Fatah!gets!a!boost!during!violent!periods! because!they!offer!the!most!credible!diplomatic!option!and!as!a!result!Fatah!never!reaches! its!lowest!levels!of!support.!!But,!some!voters!who!support!Fatah!under!normal! circumstances!defect!under!conditions!of!violence!because!Fatah!is!not!sufficiently!militant.!!

Parties!like!Hamas!have!a!decrease!in!variance!for!the!inverse!reason:!with!the!exception!of! the!most!recent!poll!taken!after!Operation!Protective!Edge!they!don’t!reach!their!highest! levels!of!support!under!conditions!of!very!high!Palestinian!fatalities!because!they!do!not! offer!a!credible!diplomatic!solution,!but!they!receive!a!boost!in!public!support!for!their!role!

! 122! in!fighting!Israelis.260!!The!upward!and!downward!pressure!on!the!support!for!parties! associated!with!both!the!peace!process!and!with!threat!and!corruption!leads!to!a!decrease! in!variance!in!the!amount!of!support!and!results!in!a!fairly!predictable!amount!of!support! at!high!levels!of!violence.!!!

! To!test!this!hypothesis,!I!ran!regressions!of!the!parties!against!a!discounted!sum!of! fatalities!over!the!40!days!prior!to!each!poll.!!I!also!ran!regressions!of!the!expected!number! of!seats!for!each!party!against!a!number!of!substantive!poll!questions.!!An!unexpected! result!was!that!the!more!strongly!a!party!was!correlated!with!violence,!regardless!whether! the!correlation!was!significant!or!not,!the!more!poll!questions!the!party!was!also!correlated! with.!!This!suggests!that!violence!is!an!important!frame!of!reference!even!for!seemingly! unrelated!issues!like!corruption.!!This!provides!some!explanation!for!why!the!variance!of! support!for!some!parties!like!DFLP,!PPP,!and!Fida!does!not!decrease!as!the!violence! increases:!these!parties!have!almost!zero!correlation!with!the!violence!and!subsequently! are!only!correlated!with!one!poll!question!each.!!While!the!support!for!Islamic!Jihad,!the! independent!nationalists!and!independent!Islamists!does!have!a!high!positive!correlation! with!violence,!these!parties!are!not!correlated!with!poll!questions!associated!with!the! peace!process!and!so!only!receive!a!positive!boost!for!their!militancy.!!As!a!result!the! variance!of!their!support!does!not!decrease!as!violence!increases.!

! These!are!important!findings!because!it!is!important!to!understand!the!constraints! actors!face!when!they!are!asked!to!make!compromises!during!peace!negotiations.!!A!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 260 It’s possible that the higher level of support for Hamas in the August 26-30, 2014 PCPSR poll is due to a rallying around the chief executive effect. I hypothesize that polls taken while a conflict is ongoing lead to a much higher level of party support when compared to polls taken after the conflict is over. This poll was taken on the first day of the cease-fire when Palestinians were still being killed by Israelies. I found similar exmaples of a rallying effect in the Israeli chapter.

! 123! positive!take!on!the!results!I!have!found!is!that!moderate!parties!are!not!as!vulnerable!as! some!believe!them!to!be.!!This!is!important!because!a!loss!in!confidence!in!moderate! parties!can!undermine!the!credibility!of!their!commitment!to!agreements.!!Kydd!and!

Walter!(2002)!argue!this!creates!an!important!incentive!for!parties!excluded!from! negotiations!to!act!as!spoilers,!using!violence!to!undermine!confidence!in!parties!engaged! in!negotiations.261!!!

Mia!Bloom!(2004)!investigates!the!internal!competition!between!factions!in!the!

Palestinian!territories.!!She!builds!on!Putnam’s!(1988)!concept!of!twoQlevel!games262! wherein!suicide!bombings!were!done!in!part!to!influence!the!behavior!of!Israelis,!but!also! to!increase!their!own!support!from!Palestinians.!!However,!she!finds!that!suicide!bombings! are!not!always!effective!–during!the!early!years!of!the!Oslo!peace!process,!Hamas’s!use!of! suicide!bombings!did!not!lead!to!an!increase!in!public!support.!!It!wasn’t!until!Palestinian! public!opinion!had!soured!on!the!peace!process!and!there!was!widespread!pessimism!and! frustration,!that!the!Palestinian!public!increased!their!approval!of!suicide!bombings.!Under! these!conditions!Hamas’s!use!of!suicide!bombings!became!so!effective!that!other!groups! like!PFLP,!which!had!previously!not!used!this!strategy,!also!began!engaging!in!this!kind!of! violence.263!!This!is!another!example!of!how!Palestinian!opinions!on!more!substantive! issues!is!an!important!intermediary!variable!that!needs!to!be!taken!into!account.!!

An!interesting!question!for!future!research!is,!if!the!increase!in!support!for!militant! and!hardline!parties!in!response!to!violence!is!shortQlived,!then!how!much!does!this!affect!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 261 Andrew Kydd and Barbara F. Walter, “Sabotaging the Peace: The Politics of Extremist Violence,” International Organization 56, no. 2 (2002): 263–96. 262 Robert D. Putnam, “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games,” International Organization 42, no. 3 (1988): 427–60. 263 Bloom, “Palestinian Suicide Bombing.”

! 124! more!general!attitudes,!and!how!long!do!these!effects!last?!!Working!within!the!ripeness! literature,!Alan!Dowty!(2006)!builds!on!work!done!by!Asher!Arian!to!argue!that!people’s! attitudes!towards!issues!like!the!peace!process!are!dependent!on!whether!it!is!a!shortQterm! issue,!like!a!response!to!an!attack!or!a!specific!peace!negotiation,!versus!a!longQterm!issue! like!the!peace!process!in!general.264!But!how!long!does!an!increase!in!support!for!terrorist! violence!against!Israelis!last?!!Is!there!a!cumulative!effect!of!conflict!that!leads!to!a!gradual! sea!change!in!attitudes!over!the!span!of!five!or!ten!years?!

In!the!short!term,!the!weakening!of!moderate!parties!is!still!important!because!as!

Bloom!points!out,!this!creates!an!incentive!for!militant!parties!to!use!violence!to!increase! their!support:!“suicide!attacks! are!much!more! closely!related!!to!periods! when!Arafat!is! weaker!and! rival!organizations!compete!to!fill!the! power! vacuum.”265!!Even!Hamas!has! to!be!concerned!about!competition!from!groups!that!are!more!militant!and!less!cooperative! on!its!right.266,267,268!!Hamas!had!to!expend!resources!to!prevent!Islamic!Jihad!and!al!QaedaQ inspired!groups!from!breaking!its!“hudna”!(ceasefire),!and!after!the!most!recent!conflict,!

Operation*Protective*Edge,!Islamic!Jihad’s!role!in!the!conflict!led!to!an!increase!of!their! support!from!2.2%!in!the!June!2014!poll,269!taken!before!Operation!Protective!Edge,!to!

3.8%!in!the!December!2014!poll.270!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 264 Dowty, “Despair Is Not Enough: Violence, Attitudinal Change, and ‘Ripeness’ in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict,” 9, 23. 265 Bloom, “Palestinian Suicide Bombing,” 79. 266 Fares Akram and Isabel Kershner, “Gaza Killing of Italian Activist Deals a Blow to Hamas,” New York Times, April 15, 2011. 267 Fares Akram and Isabel Kershner, “Hamas Finds Itself Aligned with Israel Over Extremist Groups,” New York Times, October 19, 2012. 268 Nathan Thrall, “Hurting Moderates, Helping Militants,” New York Times, May 4, 2014, sec. Opinion. 269 Shikaki and Ladadweh, “Poll Number (52).” 270 Shikaki and Ladadweh, “Poll Number (54).”

! 125! What’s!more,!spoiling!is!not!limited!to!subordinated!extremist!groups!who!expect!to! be!excluded!from!the!payoffs!of!peace!negotiations.!Wendy!Pearlman!(2008)!argues!that! nonQstate!actors!not!only!compete!with!each!other,!but!there!is!also!competition!for! leadership!within!the!same!organization.271!!As!an!example,!she!attributes!the!recanting!of! support!for!a!phased!program!of!Palestinian!autonomy!at!the!1974!Palestinian!National!

Council!meeting!on!the!part!of!the!members!of!the!Rejectionist!Front!factions!as!a!result!of! internal!contestation!for!power!from!more!extremist!elements.!!Both!Fatah!and!PFLPQGC! engaged!in!suicide!bombings!after!this!PNC!meeting!as!a!result!of!internal!outbidding.272!!In! short,!when!state!actors!use!violence!against!insurgents,!this!can!lead!to!multiple! secondary!affects!within!the!target’s!political!system!that!can!undermine!longQterm! security!goals.!!

! In!the!Israeli!chapter!I!confirm!the!decrease!in!variance!using!polling!data!done!by! polling!companies!for!local!television!and!newspapers.!!This!source!provides!a!much!larger! number!of!polls.!!In!addition!to!comparing!the!variance!of!the!expected!number!of!seats!to! the!number!of!fatalities,!I!also!use!a!discounted!sum!of!rockets!and!mortars.!!Israelis!had!a! high!number!of!fatalities!during!the!Second!Intifada,!but!the!number!of!fatalities!dropped! and!remained!low!after!the!withdrawal!of!Israeli!settlers!from!Gaza!and!after!building!the! separation!wall!around!the!West!Bank.!!The!number!of!rocket!and!mortar!attacks!greatly! increased!after!Hamas!gained!control!of!the!Gaza!Strip!in!2007.!As!a!result,!the!periods!of! high!Israeli!fatalities!and!high!rocket!and!mortar!launchings!are!largely!distinct,!effectively!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 271 Wendy Pearlman, “Spoiling Inside and Out: Internal Political Contestation And the Middle East Peace Process,” International Security 33, no. 3 (2008): 86,94. 272 Ibid., 94.

! 126! creating!two!cases!out!of!the!Israeli!case!for!testing!the!effects!of!violence!on!the!voting! patterns!of!Israelis.!

! To!add!to!the!hypothesis!in!the!Palestinian!chapter!that!the!variance!decreases!as!a! result!of!opposing!demands,!with!the!Israeli!chapter!I!add!that!issue!salience!helps!to! simplify!the!decisionQmaking!process!when!choosing!which!party!to!support.!!Interestingly,! the!variance!for!a!number!of!questions!dealing!with!the!peace!process,!perception!of!threat,! and!assessment!of!Israel’s!general!condition!also!decreased!as!the!levels!of!violence! increased.!!It!may!be!that!people!use!a!more!consistent!frame!when!responding!to!poll! questions!as!violence!makes!some!values!more!salient.!!Two!other!possibilities!that!emerge! from!the!literature!both!involve!a!simplification!of!cognitive!processing.!!The!first!is!that,!as! described!by!Asher!Arian,!under!normal!conditions!people!use!a!mix!of!cognitive!rational! evaluation!along!with!emotional!reaction.!However,!when!people!feel!threatened,!they! increasingly!rely!on!their!emotions!to!respond!to!their!environment.!273!!Alternatively,! people!may!simplify!their!decisionQmaking!and!interpretations!by!relying!more!heavily!on! identity!as!a!lens!for!understanding!events.!!Emotional!responses!like!threat,!fear,!and! anger!and!responding!by!a!heightened!sensitivity!to!identity!are!not!exclusive,!and!both! responses!may!be!operating!simultaneously.!In!either!case,!the!respondent’s!analysis! would!be!expected!to!be!more!simplified,!which!may!explain!the!more!consistent!responses! to!both!party!preferences!and!policy!issues.!!!

! In!the!related!literature,!I!reviewed!research!more!closely!associated!with!this! project!that!looks!at!the!affects!of!violence!on!voting!patterns.!!I!then!looked!at!the! terrorism!literature,!which!incorporates!theories!about!emotions.!!I!then!discussed!the!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 273 Gordon and Arian, “Threat and Decision Making,” 197.

! 127! importance!of!cognition.!!After!that!Terror!Management!Theory!and!literature!on!conflict! and!identity!help!to!connect!the!terrorism!literature!with!my!findings.!

! With!regard!to!the!question!of!whether!violence!leads!to!a!run!toward!hardline! parties,!!Jaeger!et!al.!(2012)!find!the!benefit!to!hardline!parties!is!shortQlived,!lasting!no! more!than!three!months.274!!This!is!consistent!with!the!range!of!time!that!I!found!the! results!of!fatalities!to!last.!What’s!more,!the!shift!in!support!to!hardline!parties!is!not!as! large!as!is!commonly!expected.!275!

Berrebi!and!Klor’s!(2008)!findings!about!the!location!of!a!terror!attack!create! connections!across!all!four!of!the!bodies!of!literature.!!The!proximity!to!a!bombing,!whether! it!occurred!in!the!respondent’s!community!or!involved!someone!he!or!she!knows! personally,!affects!how!their!party!preferences!change.!If!a!terror!attack!occurs!at!the! national!level,!this!often!leads!to!polarization:!people!who!were!leftQleaning!before!the! attack!move!further!to!the!left!and!people!who!supported!hardline!parties!before!the!attack! increased!their!support.!!But!if!the!terror!attack!occurs!at!the!local!level,!then!communities! that!either!supported!dovish!or!hardline!parties!both!increase!their!support!for!hardline! parties.276!

Working!within!the!terrorism!literature,!Huddy!et!al.’s!(2002)!theories!provide! possible!explanations!for!why!people!respond!differently!to!local!versus!nationalQlevel! violence.!!The!authors!suggest!that!people!respond!with!either!a!perception!of!national! threat!or!with!personal!fear.!!Personal!fear!leads!people!to!change!their!personal!habits!to! reduce!their!personal!risk,!but!they!are!not!likely!to!change!their!preferences!for!national!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 274 Jaeger et al., “The Struggle for Palestinian Hearts and Minds.” 275 Ibid., 360. 276 Berrebi and Klor, “Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism?” 283, 287-88, 292

! 128! policies.!!A!perception!of!a!threat!to!the!nation,!however,!does!have!an!impact!on!people’s! policy!and!party!preferences.277,278,279!!Skitka!et!al.!(2006)!distinguish!between!a!response! of!anger,!which!increases!support!for!war,!versus!a!response!of!fear,!which!decreased! support!for!war.!280!The!key!difference!between!these!two!responses!is!the!perception!of! risk:!people!who!respond!with!anger!have!more!risk!tolerance!and!perceive!a!lower!level!of! risk!than!people!who!respond!to!threats!with!fear.!281!

Overlapping!with!the!terrorism!literature!are!theories!about!threat!and!cognition.!!

As!mentioned!above,!Gordon!and!Arian!(2001)!make!the!case!that!people!use!a! combination!of!logic!and!emotion!to!settle!on!their!preference!for!responses!to!threats,!but! at!high!levels!of!threat!people!primarily!respond!emotionally.282!Some!of!the!ways!that! cognitive!evaluation!is!undermined!include!using!stereotypes!to!assess!people!who!are! seen!as!threatening!and!preferring!selfQserving!facts!about!the!conflict.283!Huddy!asserts! that!an!exaggerated!perception!of!risk!is!an!example!of!cognitive!failure.284!

! Another!relevant!body!of!literature!discussed!here!is!Terror!Management!Theory.!!

This!theory!predicts!that!when!we!are!reminded!of!our!mortality,!our!social!values!become! more!important.!Some!people!tend!to!more!strongly!like!people!who!are!similar!to!them!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 277 Huddy et al., “The Consequences of Terrorism: Disentangling the Effects of Personal and National Threat.” 278 Maoz and McCauley, “Threat Perceptions and Feelings as Predictors of Jewish-Israeli Support for Compromise with Palestinians,” 533. 279 Halperin et al., “Emotions in Conflict: Correlates of Fear and Hope in the Israeli-Jewish Society.” 280 Skitka et al., “Confrontational and Preventive Policy Responses to Terrorism: Anger Wants a Fight and Fear Wants ‘Them’ to Go Away,” 379. 281 Lerner and Keltner, “Fear, Anger, and Risk.” Lerner et al., “Effects of Fear and Anger on Perceived Risks of Terrorism: A National Field Experiment.” 282 Gordon and Arian, “Threat and Decision Making,” 197. 283 Ibid., 206. 284 Huddy et al., “The Consequences of Terrorism: Disentangling the Effects of Personal and National Threat,” 504.

! 129! and!to!dislike!people!who!are!different.!285!However,!for!those!people!who!hold!pluralistic! and!inclusive!democratic!values,!they!may!conversely!view!people!who!are!different!more! positively.!!This!is!consistent!with!the!polarization!effects!found!by!Berrebi!and!Klor286,!

Jaeger!and!Klor287,!and!with!my!results!in!the!Israeli!and!Palestinian!chapters.!

One!inconsistency!of!this!theory!with!the!terrorism!and!emotion!literature!lies!in! the!difference!between!feeling!personally!threatened!versus!perceiving!a!threat!to!the! nation!as!a!whole.!!It!seems!more!likely!that!feeling!personally!threatened!would!activate! an!individual’s!mortality!salience,!and!therefore!strengthen!both!preferences!with!regard! to!outQgroups.!But!the!research!done!by!Huddy!et!al.!(2002)!and!others!suggests!that! personal!threat!does!not!significantly!impact!respondent’s!preferences!for!national! policies.!!One!possibility!may!be!that!people!who!respond!with!personal!threat!or!fear!may! still!not!be!willing!to!incur!the!risk!involved!with!more!aggressive!policies!and!the!parties! that!promote!them.!!Alternatively,!terror!management!theory!is!closely!bound!with! identity,!so!it!may!be!that!the!simultaneous!reminder!of!our!mortality!in!conjunction!with!a! perceived!threat!to!our!identity!through!the!death!of!people!we!see!as!similar!to!ourselves! may!elicit!a!stronger!desire!for!a!political!response.!

Closely!related!to!Terror!Management!Theory!is!literature!that!investigates!the! relationship!between!threat!and!identity.!Both!deal!with!different!levels!of!identity,! whether!that!is!defined!by!their!nation,!ethnic!group,!or!religious!sect.!!However,!the!threat! and!identity!literature!shows!relationships!between!conflict!and!people’s!responses! without!relying!on!psychological!explanations.!!In!keeping!with!ideas!about!threat!and!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 285 Gordon and Arian, “Threat and Decision Making,” 208–209. 286 Berrebi and Klor, “Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism?” 287 Jaeger et al., “The Struggle for Palestinian Hearts and Minds.”

! 130! salience,!Gibler!et!al.!(2012)!find!that!territorial!issues!become!more!salient!for!people!who! belong!to!a!group!that!is!embroiled!in!a!conflict.288!!!

Internal!identity!has!been!important!in!the!Israeli!case,!particularly!as!there!is! increasing!overlap!of!multiple!demographic!characteristics!and!policy!preferences.289!!Not! only!does!this!lead!to!increased!homogeneity!within!the!hardline!and!dovish!blocks!of! voters,!but!also!the!divisions!fall!along!highly!contested!domestic!fissures.!!Secular!Jews!feel! threatened!by!the!Orthodox!Jews!domestic!policy!preferences!and!also!reject!their!foreign! policy!with!regard!to!the!settlements!in!the!West!Bank.290!!This!adds!another!layer!to!the! polarizing!effects!of!threat!and!conflict.!!Hutchison!(2014)!finds!that!people!react! particularly!negatively!to!people!in!their!inQgroup!who!criticize!a!military!response!to! threat!as!this!is!seen!as!weakening!national!deterrence!and!defense.291!

The!identity!literature!also!finds!characteristics!that!lead!different!people!to! respond!differently!to!threat.!!Similar!to!the!Terror!Management!Theory!literature,!the! identity!literature!finds!that!intolerance!is!a!common!response!to!threat,!but!those!with! democratic!values!remain!more!tolerant.!!A!problem!with!applying!the!terrorism!and! emotion!literature!to!my!project!is!that!emotional!predispositions!toward!fear!or!anger!are! very!likely!randomly!distributed!across!society.!!Combining!the!insights!from!this!literature! with!terror!management!theory,!theories!about!cognition,!and!identity!literature!are!that! each!finds!characteristics!that!mediate!the!experience!of!violence!so!that!different!groups!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 288 Gibler, Hutchison, and Miller Steven V., “Individual Identity Attachments and International Conflict: The Importance of Territorial Threat.” 289 Shamir and Arian, “Collective Identity and Electoral Competition in Israel,” 274. 290 Ibid., 266. 291 Hutchison, “Tolerating Threat? The Independent Effects of Civil Conflict on Domestic Political Tolerance,” 798.

! 131! may!be!more!or!less!tolerant!of!outQgroups,!and!more!or!less!tolerant!of!risk!depending!on! previously!held!values.!

Finally,!a!problem!that!Berrebi!and!Klor!(2008)!encountered!encapsulates!part!of! my!hypothesis.!!Left!leaning!communities!that!experience!violence!at!the!local!level!shift! their!support!to!hardline!parties,!but!if!there!is!violence!at!the!national!level,!leftQleaning! communities!shift!their!support!further!to!the!left.!!So!how!do!leftQleaning!communities! respond!if!there!is!both!violence!at!the!local!level!as!well!as!at!the!national!level?!!Berrebi! and!Klor!propose!a!ratio!of!the!two!kinds!of!violence!to!predict!which!direction!the!shift!in! support!will!move!toward.292!!This!is!an!example!of!the!countervailing!pressures!that!I! suggest!are!occurring,!which!explains!the!decrease!in!variance!of!violence!at!higher!levels! of!violence!and!the!tendency!for!support!levels!to!be!a!bit!below!a!moderate!party’s!overall! average!and!a!bit!above!the!overall!average!for!hardline!and!militant!parties.!

The!generalizability!of!this!research!is!limited!as!both!of!these!cases!are!so!closely! integrated,!but!the!results!suggest!that!adding!more!cases!may!be!fruitful.!!Some!of!the! limitations!of!this!research!lie!in!the!time!frame!evaluated.!!Like!Jaeger!et!al.!(2012),!I!found! that!the!effects!of!violence!on!voter!preferences!were!not!significant!past!3!months.!!

However,!Jaeger!et!al.!(2012)!point!to!some!longQterm,!generational!effects!of!violence.!!An! important!demographic!variable!that!predicts!how!people!will!react!to!violence!is!the!level! of!violence!that!occurred!during!the!formative!ages!of!14Q17.!!Boys!are!likely!to!remain! radicalized!over!their!lifetime!if!their!environment!was!violent!during!this!age!period.!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 292 Berrebi and Klor, “Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism?,” 292.

! 132! Conversely,!girls!were!more!likely!to!hold!more!moderate!views!throughout!their!lives!if! their!environment!was!safe!during!these!ages.293!

Another!consideration!for!longQterm!effects!of!violence!lies!in!its!impact!on!whether! children!develop!secure!or!insecure!attachment!styles.!!Secure!attachment!is!a! psychological!disposition!that!is!established!by!experiences!and!parenting!styles!that!occur! early!in!people’s!lives.!!It!is!a!disposition!that!is!fairly!enduring,!lasting!throughout!people’s! lives.!!Huddy!et!al.!build!on!work!to!show!that!people!with!insecure!attachment!styles!are! likely!to!perceive!a!higher!level!of!threat,!engage!in!more!patriotic!behavior,!experience! more!anxiety,!and!more!supportive!of!a!hostile!foreign!policy!when!they!are!under! threat.294!!More!research!is!needed!on!the!generational!effects!of!violence.!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 293 Jaeger et al., “The Struggle for Palestinian Hearts and Minds,” 365. 294 Huddy, Feldman, and Weber, “The Political Consequences of Perceived Threat and Felt Insecurity.”

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! 138! Appendix)A:)Israeli)Polls) ! ! M/D/Y! Polling!company! Poll!Sponser! Obtained!from! 12/1/00! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! imra.org.il! 12/8/00! Gallup! Maariv! imra.org.il! 7/20/01! Gallup! Maariv! imra.org.il! 12/7/01! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! imra.org.il! 3/26/02! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! imra.org.il! 8/9/02! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! imra.org.il! 8/11/02! Bar!Ilan!University! Bar!Ilan!University! imra.org.il! 11/1/02! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! imra.org.il! 11/6/02! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! imra.org.il! 11/14/02! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! imra.org.il! 11/15/02! New!Wave! Maariv! imra.org.il! 11/27/02! Dialog! Haaretz! Haaretz.com! 12/6/02! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! imra.org.il! 12/6/02! New!Wave! Maariv! imra.org.il! 12/9/02! Dialog! Haaretz! imra.org.il! 12/10/02! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! imra.org.il! 12/12/02! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! imra.org.il! 12/13/02! New!Wave! Maariv! imra.org.il! 12/17/02! Dialog! Haaretz! imra.org.il! 12/18/02! New!Wave! Maariv! imra.org.il! 12/20/02! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! imra.org.il! 12/25/02! New!Wave! Maariv! imra.org.il! 12/26/02! Dialog! Haaretz! imra.org.il! 12/27/02! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! imra.org.il! 12/27/02! Dialog! Haaretz! imra.org.il! 12/31/02! Dialog! Haaretz! Haaretz.com! 1/1/03! New!Wave! Maariv! imra.org.il! 1/3/03! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! imra.org.il! 1/7/03! Dialog! Haaretz! imra.org.il! 1/8/03! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! imra.org.il! 1/8/03! New!Wave! Maariv! imra.org.il! 1/11/03! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! globes.co.il! 1/11/03! Teleseker! Maariv! globes.co.il! 1/11/03! Smith! Globes! globes.co.il! 1/12/03! New!Wave! Maariv! imra.org.il! 1/14/03! Dialog! Haaretz! imra.org.il! 1/14/03! Smith! Likud! Jpost.com! 1/15/03! New!Wave! Maariv! imra.org.il! 1/15/03! Smith! Labor! Jpost.com!

! 139! 1/16/03! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! globes.co.il! 1/16/03! Teleseker! Maariv! globes.co.il! 1/16/03! Smith! Globes! globes.co.il! 1/19/03! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! globes.co.il! 1/19/03! New!Wave! Maariv! imra.org.il! 1/20/03! Teleseker! Maariv! globes.co.il! 1/20/03! Smith! Globes! globes.co.il! 1/22/03! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! globes.co.il! 1/22/03! New!Wave! Maariv! imra.org.il! 1/23/03! Dialog! Haaretz! globes.co.il! 1/23/03! Teleseker! Maariv! globes.co.il! 1/23/03! Smith! Globes! globes.co.il! 1/25/03! Geocartography! Walla! imra.org.il! 1/26/03! Dialog! Haaretz! imra.org.il! 1/26/03! New!Wave! Maariv! imra.org.il! 1/28/03! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! Jerusalem!Post! 1/28/03! Teleseker! Maariv! Jpost.com! 1/21/04! Shvakim!Panorama! Israel!radio!103! imra.org.il! 3/5/04! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! imra.org.il! 5/25/04! Teleseker! Maariv! imra.org.il! 6/11/04! Teleseker! Maariv! imra.org.il! 7/14/04! Teleseker! Maariv! imra.org.il! 9/13/04! Teleseker! Maariv! imra.org.il! 10/1/04! Teleseker! Maariv! imra.org.il! 10/15/04! Teleseker! Maariv! imra.org.il! 12/3/04! Teleseker! Maariv! imra.org.il! 1/14/05! Maagar!Mochot! Mishal!Cham! imra.org.il! 3/4/05! Teleseker! Maariv! imra.org.il! 3/16/05! Shvakim!Panorama! Israel!radio!103! imra.org.il! 3/28/05! Teleseker! Maariv! imra.org.il! 5/12/05! Shvakim!Panorama! Israel!radio!103! Haaretz.com! 6/28/05! Teleseker! Maariv! imra.org.il! 8/10/05! Maagar!Mochot! Another!Matter! imra.org.il! 8/23/05! Teleseker! Maariv! imra.org.il! 8/25/05! Maagar!Mochot! Reshet!Bet!Radio! imra.org.il! 8/31/05! Shvakim!Panorama! Israel!radio!103! imra.org.il! 10/14/05! Teleseker! Maariv! imra.org.il! 10/23/05! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 11/10/05! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 11/18/05! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! angusQreid.com! 11/18/05! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 11/21/05! Dialog! Haaretz! Haaretz.com! 11/23/05! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! angusQreid.com!

! 140! 11/23/05! Smith! Jerusalem!Post! Jpost.com! 11/24/05! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 11/24/05! Smith! Channel!10! Jpost.com! 11/29/05! Dialog! Haaretz! angusQreid.com! 11/30/05! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! ynetnews.com! 11/30/05! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 11/30/05! Shvakim!Panorama! Israel!radio!103! angusQreid.com! 12/5/05! Dialog! Haaretz! angusQreid.com! 12/7/05! Maagar!Mochot! Makor!Rishon! angusQreid.com! 12/9/05! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! angusQreid.com! 12/14/05! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! angusQreid.com! 12/14/05! Dialog! Haaretz! angusQreid.com! 12/14/05! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 12/20/05! Dialog! Haaretz! Haaretz.com! 12/22/05! Geocartography! Walla! imra.org.il! 12/22/05! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 12/23/05! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! angusQreid.com! 12/28/05! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! angusQreid.com! 12/28/05! Geocartography! Army!Radio! angusQreid.com! 12/28/05! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 12/28/05! Shvakim!Panorama! Israel!radio!103! angusQreid.com! 1/2/06! Dialog! Haaretz! Haaretz.com! 1/5/06! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! angusQreid.com! 1/5/06! Dialog! Haaretz! angusQreid.com! 1/9/06! Dialog! Haaretz! angusQreid.com! 1/10/06! Geocartography! Channel!1! Jpost.com! 1/11/06! Maagar!Mochot! Israel!radio!103! angusQreid.com! 1/12/06! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! angusQreid.com! 1/12/06! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 1/18/06! Dialog! Haaretz! angusQreid.com! 1/18/06! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 1/19/06! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! angusQreid.com! 1/20/06! Smith! Globes! globes.co.il! 1/25/06! Dialog! Haaretz! Haaretz.com! 1/27/06! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! ynetnews.com! 1/31/06! Dialog! Haaretz! angusQreid.com! 2/1/06! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! angusQreid.com! 2/1/06! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 2/7/06! Smith! Jerusalem!Post! Jpost.com! 2/8/06! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! angusQreid.com! 2/8/06! Dialog! Haaretz! angusQreid.com! 2/10/06! Maagar!Mochot! Makor!Rishon! angusQreid.com! 2/10/06! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com!

! 141! 2/14/06! Dialog! Haaretz! Haaretz.com! 2/15/06! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! angusQreid.com! 2/15/06! Maagar!Mochot! Makor!Rishon! angusQreid.com! 2/15/06! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 2/15/06! Smith! Jerusalem!Post! angusQreid.com! 2/22/06! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! ynetnews.com! 2/22/06! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 2/23/06! Smith! Jerusalem!Post! angusQreid.com! 3/1/06! Dialog! Haaretz! angusQreid.com! 3/1/06! Maagar!Mochot! Israel!radio!103! angusQreid.com! 3/2/06! Maagar!Mochot! Makor!Rishon! imra.org.il! 3/2/06! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 3/3/06! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! ynetnews.com! 3/7/06! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! angusQreid.com! 3/8/06! Dialog! Haaretz! angusQreid.com! 3/8/06! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 3/9/06! Smith! Jerusalem!Post! angusQreid.com! 3/14/06! Dialog! Haaretz! angusQreid.com! 3/14/06! Geocartography! Channel!1! Jpost.com! 3/14/06! Maagar!Mochot! Channel!2! Jpost.com! 3/15/06! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! angusQreid.com! 3/15/06! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 3/15/06! Smith! Jerusalem!Post! angusQreid.com! 3/16/06! Maagar!Mochot! Makor!Rishon! angusQreid.com! 3/21/06! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 3/22/06! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! angusQreid.com! 3/22/06! Geocartography! Israel!radio!103! angusQreid.com! 3/22/06! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 3/22/06! Smith! Jerusalem!Post! angusQreid.com! 3/26/06! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! angusQreid.com! 3/26/06! Dialog! Haaretz! angusQreid.com! 3/26/06! Maagar!Mochot! Mishal!Cham! imra.org.il! 3/26/06! Teleseker! Maariv! imra.org.il! 3/26/06! Smith! Jerusalem!Post! Jpost.com! 6/30/06! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! imra.org.il! 7/5/06! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! ynetnews.com! 8/14/06! Smith! Globes! globes.co.il! 8/15/06! Teleseker! Maariv! Jpost.com! 8/21/06! Dialog! Haaretz! Haaretz.com! 8/22/06! Maagar!Mochot! NA! angusQreid.com! 8/23/06! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! angusQreid.com! 9/19/06! Dialog! Haaretz! imra.org.il! 9/21/06! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! imra.org.il!

! 142! 10/13/06! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! imra.org.il! 11/1/06! Dialog! Haaretz! angusQreid.com! 11/9/06! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 11/22/06! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! ynetnews.com! 11/23/06! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 1/9/07! Dialog! Haaretz! angusQreid.com! 2/19/07! Maagar!Mochot! Channel!10! angusQreid.com! 3/22/07! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 3/26/07! Maagar!Mochot! Channel!10! angusQreid.com! 3/28/07! Shvakim!Panorama! Israel!radio!103! angusQreid.com! 5/1/07! Dialog! Haaretz! Haaretz.com! 7/7/07! Dialog! Haaretz! angusQreid.com! 7/24/07! Shvakim!Panorama! Israel!radio!103! angusQreid.com! 9/21/07! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! imra.org.il! 10/9/07! Dialog! Haaretz! angusQreid.com! 11/21/07! Shvakim!Panorama! Israel!radio!103! angusQreid.com! 11/28/07! Dialog! Haaretz! angusQreid.com! 1/8/08! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! imra.org.il! 1/8/08! Dialog! Haaretz! imra.org.il! 1/31/08! Teleseker! Maariv! imra.org.il! 2/6/08! Maagar!Mochot! Israel!radio!103! imra.org.il! 2/26/08! Dialog! Haaretz! imra.org.il! 2/28/08! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! angusQreid.com! 3/17/08! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 3/26/08! Shvakim!Panorama! Israel!radio!103! angusQreid.com! 3/27/08! Dialog! Haaretz! angusQreid.com! 5/11/08! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! imra.org.il! 7/31/08! Dialog! Haaretz! Haaretz.com! 7/31/08! Teleseker! Maariv! imra.org.il! 8/19/08! Dialog! Haaretz! Haaretz.com! 8/29/08! Teleseker! Maariv! imra.org.il! 9/11/08! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 10/26/08! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! angusQreid.com! 10/26/08! Maagar!Mochot! Israel!radio!103! Jpost.com! 10/26/08! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 10/29/08! Dialog! Haaretz! Haaretz.com! 10/29/08! New!Wave! Yisrael!Hayom! imra.org.il! 10/29/08! Smith! Jerusalem!Post! Jpost.com! 10/31/08! Yisrael!Hayom! Jerusalem!Post! Jpost.com! 11/12/08! New!Wave! Yisrael!Hayom! angusQreid.com! 11/18/08! Dialog! Haaretz! angusQreid.com! 11/19/08! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! angusQreid.com! 11/19/08! Maagar!Mochot! Israel!radio!103! angusQreid.com!

! 143! 11/24/08! Geocartography! Israel!Television! angusQreid.com! 11/25/08! Panels! Channel!99! angusQreid.com! 12/9/08! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! angusQreid.com! 12/9/08! Dialog! Haaretz! Haaretz.com! 12/10/08! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 12/15/08! Maagar!Mochot! Israel!radio!103! angusQreid.com! 12/23/08! Dialog! Haaretz! Haaretz.com! 12/23/08! Maagar!Mochot! Channel!2! imra.org.il! 12/24/08! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! imra.org.il! 12/24/08! Geocartography! Radius!Radio! imra.org.il! 12/24/08! Midgam! Channel!1! imra.org.il! 12/24/08! Shvakim!Panorama! Israel!radio!103! imra.org.il! 12/26/08! Teleseker! Maariv! imra.org.il! 12/28/08! Maagar!Mochot! Israel!radio!103! angusQreid.com! 12/29/08! Smith! Jerusalem!Post! Jpost.com! 12/30/08! Maagar!Mochot! Channel!4! imra.org.il! 12/31/08! Dialog! Haaretz! angusQreid.com! 12/31/08! Geocartography! Globes! imra.org.il! 1/1/09! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 1/6/09! Maagar!Mochot! Channel!3! angusQreid.com! 1/8/09! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 1/13/09! Dialog! Haaretz! angusQreid.com! 1/13/09! Maagar!Mochot! Channel!2! angusQreid.com! 1/14/09! Shvakim!Panorama! Israel!radio!103! angusQreid.com! 1/15/09! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 1/18/09! Maagar!Mochot! Channel!2! angusQreid.com! 1/20/09! Maagar!Mochot! Channel!2! imra.org.il! 1/21/09! New!Wave! Yisrael!Hayom! imra.org.il! 1/22/09! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! imra.org.il! 1/22/09! Geocartography! Globes! globes.co.il! 1/22/09! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 1/26/09! Dialog! Haaretz! Haaretz.com! 1/27/09! Maagar!Mochot! Channel!2! angusQreid.com! 1/28/09! Geocartography! Globes! globes.co.il! 1/28/09! Shvakim!Panorama! Israel!radio!103! imra.org.il! 1/29/09! Dialog! Haaretz! imra.org.il! 1/29/09! Teleseker! Maariv! angusQreid.com! 1/30/09! Maagar!Mochot! NA! imra.org.il! 2/2/09! Geocartography! Globes! globes.co.il! 2/3/09! New!Wave! Yisrael!Hayom! imra.org.il! 2/4/09! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! ynetnews.com! 2/4/09! Dialog! Haaretz! Haaretz.com! 2/4/09! Maagar!Mochot! Makor!Rishon! imra.org.il!

! 144! 2/4/09! Teleseker! Maariv! imra.org.il! 2/4/09! Shvakim!Panorama! Israel!radio!103! imra.org.il! 2/5/09! Geocartography! Globes! globes.co.il! 2/5/09! Panels! Channel!2! imra.org.il! 2/6/09! Smith! Jerusalem!Post! Jpost.com! 2/8/09! Maariv! Haaretz! Haaretz.com! 7/9/09! Shvakim!Panorama! Israel!radio!103! angusQreid.com! 7/11/09! Dialog! Haaretz! angusQreid.com! 8/4/09! Smith! Ynet! ynet.com! 12/30/09! Shvakim!Panorama! Israel!radio!103! angusQreid.com! 2/1/10! Dialog! Haaretz! angusQreid.com! 2/7/10! Maagar!Mochot! Global!Monitor! angusQreid.com! 3/19/10! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! angusQreid.com! 3/29/10! Teleseker! Yedioth!Ahronot! imra.org.il! 6/8/10! Dialog! Haaretz! knessetjeremy.com! 6/9/10! Maagar!Mochot! NA! knessetjeremy.com! 10/5/10! Dialog! Haaretz! knessetjeremy.com! 10/5/10! Maagar!Mochot! Israel!radio!103! knessetjeremy.com! 11/30/10! Smith! Jerusalem!Post! knessetjeremy.com! 12/5/10! Maagar!Mochot! Walla! knessetjeremy.com! 12/22/10! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 1/18/11! Dialog! Haaretz! imra.org.il! 1/20/11! Teleseker! Maariv! imra.org.il! 2/9/11! Sarid! Channel!2! knessetjeremy.com! 2/15/11! Geocartography! Channel!1! knessetjeremy.com! 2/20/11! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! knessetjeremy.com! 3/25/11! Dialog! Haaretz! Haaretz.com! 3/30/11! Shvakim!Panorama! Israel!radio!103! knessetjeremy.com! 3/31/11! Smith! Globes! globes.co.il! 4/13/11! Panels! NA! knessetjeremy.com! 4/14/11! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 5/2/11! Smith! Globes! globes.co.il! 5/12/11! Panels! NA! knessetjeremy.com! 5/24/11! Sarid! Channel!2! knessetjeremy.com! 5/25/11! Geocartography! Channel!2! knessetjeremy.com! 5/26/11! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 5/27/11! New!Wave! Yisrael!Hayom! knessetjeremy.com! 6/24/11! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! knessetjeremy.com! 6/28/11! New!Wave! Yisrael!Hayom! knessetjeremy.com! 6/30/11! Smith! Globes! globes.co.il! 7/1/11! Smith! Globes! knessetjeremy.com! 7/17/11! Smith! NA! knessetjeremy.com! 7/25/11! Dialog! Haaretz! knessetjeremy.com!

! 145! 7/28/11! Smith! Globes! globes.co.il! 8/1/11! Maagar!Mochot! Makor!Rishon! knessetjeremy.com! 8/1/11! Smith! Jerusalem!Post! knessetjeremy.com! 8/31/11! Shvakim!Panorama! Israel!radio!103! imra.org.il! 9/21/11! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 9/25/11! Dialog! Haaretz! knessetjeremy.com! 9/25/11! Keevon!Research! Jerusalem!Post! Jpost.com! 10/26/11! Sarid! Channel!2! knessetjeremy.com! 10/27/11! Smith! Globes! angusQreid.com! 11/29/11! Dialog! Haaretz! knessetjeremy.com! 12/12/11! Panels! NA! knessetjeremy.com! 12/29/11! Smith! Globes! globes.co.il! 1/5/12! Geocartography! Channel!1! knessetjeremy.com! 1/9/12! Dialog! Channel!10! Haaretz.com! 1/9/12! Teleseker! Maariv! imra.org.il! 1/10/12! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! knessetjeremy.com! 1/10/12! New!Wave! Makor!Rishon! knessetjeremy.com! 1/10/12! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 1/14/12! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 1/17/12! Geocartography! Globes! globes.co.il! 1/26/12! Smith! Globes! knessetjeremy.com! 2/2/12! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 2/10/12! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! knessetjeremy.com! 2/11/12! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! knessetjeremy.com! 2/17/12! Geocartography! NA! knessetjeremy.com! 2/22/12! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 3/1/12! Smith! Globes! globes.co.il! 3/4/12! Dialog! Haaretz! knessetjeremy.com! 3/5/12! Dialog! Haaretz! knessetjeremy.com! 3/7/12! Smith! Globes! knessetjeremy.com! 3/21/12! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! knessetjeremy.com! 3/22/12! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! knessetjeremy.com! 3/28/12! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! knessetjeremy.com! 3/28/12! Dialog! Channel!10! knessetjeremy.com! 3/29/12! Teleseker! Maariv! imra.org.il! 4/8/12! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 4/23/12! Smith! Globes! knessetjeremy.com! 4/25/12! NA! Yisrael!Hayom! knessetjeremy.com! 4/29/12! Dialog! Haaretz! Haaretz.com! 4/30/12! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! knessetjeremy.com! 4/30/12! Smith! Globes! knessetjeremy.com! 5/2/12! Dahaf! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 5/3/12! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com!

! 146! 5/3/12! Teleseker! Maariv! knessetjeremy.com! 5/8/12! Dialog! Haaretz! Haaretz.com! 5/8/12! Smith! Globes! Jpost.com! 5/17/12! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 6/1/12! Smith! Globes! knessetjeremy.com! 6/3/12! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 7/9/12! Dialog! Haaretz! Haaretz.com! 7/10/12! Maagar!Mochot! Channel!10! knessetjeremy.com! 7/17/12! Maagar!Mochot! Maariv! knessetjeremy.com! 7/20/12! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! knessetjeremy.com! 7/22/12! Geocartography! Srugim! knessetjeremy.com! 7/26/12! Smith! Globes! knessetjeremy.com! 8/1/12! Smith! Globes! knessetjeremy.com! 8/3/12! Dialog! Channel!10! angusQreid.com! 8/29/12! Smith! Globes! globes.co.il! 9/14/12! Smith! Israel!radio!103! knessetjeremy.com! 9/23/12! Dialog! Haaretz! knessetjeremy.com! 9/27/12! Smith! Globes! knessetjeremy.com! 10/10/12! New!Wave! Makor!Rishon! knessetjeremy.com! 10/11/12! Dialog! Haaretz! knessetjeremy.com! 10/11/12! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 10/11/12! Teleseker! Maariv! knessetjeremy.com! 10/12/12! NA! Yisrael!Hayom! knessetjeremy.com! 10/17/12! Smith! Globes! globes.co.il! 10/18/12! Dialog! Haaretz! knessetjeremy.com! 10/18/12! Teleseker! Walla! knessetjeremy.com! 10/18/12! Smith! Arutz!Sheva! knessetjeremy.com! 10/19/12! Smith! Globes! knessetjeremy.com! 10/23/12! Dialog! Haaretz! Haaretz.com! 10/25/12! Panels! Channel!2! knessetjeremy.com! 10/28/12! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! knessetjeremy.com! 10/28/12! Dialog! Channel!10! knessetjeremy.com! 10/28/12! Maagar!Mochot! Channel!2! knessetjeremy.com! 10/29/12! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 10/29/12! Teleseker! Maariv! knessetjeremy.com! 10/29/12! Smith! Jerusalem!Post! knessetjeremy.com! 11/1/12! Geocartography! NA! knessetjeremy.com! 11/2/12! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! knessetjeremy.com! 11/2/12! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 11/5/12! Maagar!Mochot! NA! knessetjeremy.com! 11/8/12! Maagar!Mochot! Channel!4! knessetjeremy.com! 11/8/12! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 11/12/12! Panels! Mako! angusQreid.com!

! 147! 11/12/12! Smith! Jerusalem!Post! knessetjeremy.com! 11/14/12! Maagar!Mochot! Channel!3! knessetjeremy.com! 11/19/12! Dialog! Haaretz! knessetjeremy.com! 11/19/12! Panels! ICPT! knessetjeremy.com! 11/22/12! Dahaf! Channel!2! knessetjeremy.com! 11/22/12! Maagar!Mochot! Channel!2! knessetjeremy.com! 11/22/12! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 11/23/12! Maagar!Mochot! Maariv! knessetjeremy.com! 11/27/12! Dialog! Haaretz! knessetjeremy.com! 11/27/12! Maagar!Mochot! Channel!10! knessetjeremy.com! 11/28/12! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! knessetjeremy.com! 11/29/12! Maagar!Mochot! Channel!2! knessetjeremy.com! 11/29/12! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 11/29/12! Smith! Globes! knessetjeremy.com! 11/30/12! Midgam! Channel!1! knessetjeremy.com! 11/30/12! New!Wave! Yisrael!Hayom! knessetjeremy.com! 12/2/12! Internal!Poll! Labor! knessetjeremy.com! 12/2/12! Maagar!Mochot! Shas! knessetjeremy.com! 12/2/12! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 12/5/12! Dialog! Channel!10! knessetjeremy.com! 12/5/12! Meno!Geva! Reshet!Bet!Radio! knessetjeremy.com! 12/6/12! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 12/7/12! Dialog! Channel!10! knessetjeremy.com! 12/10/12! Dialog! Haaretz! knessetjeremy.com! 12/11/12! Teleseker! Walla! knessetjeremy.com! 12/11/12! Smith! Reshet!Bet!Radio! knessetjeremy.com! 12/13/12! New!Wave! Yisrael!Hayom! knessetjeremy.com! 12/13/12! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 12/14/12! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! knessetjeremy.com! 12/14/12! Geocartography! Jerusalem!Post! knessetjeremy.com! 12/14/12! Maagar!Mochot! Maariv! knessetjeremy.com! 12/18/12! Dahaf! Channel!2! knessetjeremy.com! 12/18/12! Teleseker! Walla! knessetjeremy.com! 12/20/12! Dahaf! Channel!2! knessetjeremy.com! 12/20/12! Smith! Jerusalem!Post! knessetjeremy.com! 12/21/12! Maagar!Mochot! Maariv! knessetjeremy.com! 12/23/12! Dialog! Haaretz! knessetjeremy.com! 12/23/12! Panels! Channel!2! knessetjeremy.com! 12/25/12! Geocartography! NA! knessetjeremy.com! 12/25/12! Panels! Sof!Hashavua! Jpost.com! 12/25/12! Teleseker! Walla! knessetjeremy.com! 12/25/12! Smith! Jerusalem!Post! knessetjeremy.com! 12/26/12! Teleseker! Walla! knessetjeremy.com!

! 148! 12/27/12! Midgam! Israel!radio!103! knessetjeremy.com! 12/28/12! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! knessetjeremy.com! 12/28/12! Knesset!Channel! Knesset!Channel! knessetjeremy.com! 12/28/12! Maagar!Mochot! Maariv! knessetjeremy.com! 1/1/13! Dahaf! Channel!2! knessetjeremy.com! 1/1/13! Teleseker! Walla! knessetjeremy.com! 1/2/13! Dialog! Haaretz! knessetjeremy.com! 1/2/13! Geocartography! Reshet!Bet!Radio! knessetjeremy.com! 1/3/13! New!Wave! Yisrael!Hayom! knessetjeremy.com! 1/3/13! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 1/3/13! Smith! Jerusalem!Post! knessetjeremy.com! 1/4/13! Maagar!Mochot! Maariv! knessetjeremy.com! 1/4/13! Panels! Yisrael!Post! knessetjeremy.com! 1/7/13! Dialog! Channel!10! knessetjeremy.com! 1/7/13! NA! Times!of!Israel! knessetjeremy.com! 1/7/13! Panels! Channel!2! knessetjeremy.com! 1/8/13! Teleseker! Walla! knessetjeremy.com! 1/8/13! Smith! Channel!1! knessetjeremy.com! 1/10/13! Geocartography! NA! knessetjeremy.com! 1/10/13! Panels! Channel!2! knessetjeremy.com! 1/11/13! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! knessetjeremy.com! 1/11/13! Sof!Hashavua! Yisral!Post! knessetjeremy.com! 1/11/13! Maagar!Mochot! Maariv! knessetjeremy.com! 1/11/13! New!Wave! Yisrael!Hayom! knessetjeremy.com! 1/11/13! Smith! Jerusalem!Post! knessetjeremy.com! 1/12/13! Midgam! Channel!1! knessetjeremy.com! 1/15/13! Dahaf! Channel!2! knessetjeremy.com! 1/15/13! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 1/16/13! Teleseker! Walla! knessetjeremy.com! 1/17/13! Dialog! Haaretz! knessetjeremy.com! 1/17/13! Geocartography! Israel!radio!103! knessetjeremy.com! 1/17/13! Maagar!Mochot! Reshet!Bet!Radio! knessetjeremy.com! 1/17/13! New!Wave! Yisrael!Hayom! knessetjeremy.com! 1/17/13! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 1/17/13! Smith! Jerusalem!Post! knessetjeremy.com! 1/18/13! Dahaf! Yediot!Ahronot! knessetjeremy.com! 1/18/13! Maagar!Mochot! Maariv! knessetjeremy.com! 1/18/13! Panels! Yisrael!Post! knessetjeremy.com! 2/17/13! Panels! Channel!99! imra.org.il! 2/21/13! Maagar!Mochot! Maariv! imra.org.il! 3/14/13! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 3/17/13! Maagar!Mochot! Channel!10! knessetjeremy.com! 4/4/13! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com!

! 149! 5/3/13! Smith! Globes! knessetjeremy.com! 5/12/13! Dialog! Haaretz! imra.org.il! 5/13/13! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 6/10/13! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 6/20/13! Dialog! Channel!10! knessetjeremy.com! 6/20/13! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 6/27/13! Smith! Globes! imra.org.il! 7/17/13! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 7/23/13! Dialog! Haaretz! imra.org.il! 7/23/13! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 7/25/13! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 8/1/13! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 8/1/13! Smith! Globes! imra.org.il! 8/5/13! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 8/29/13! Smith! Globes! knessetjeremy.com! 10/10/13! Smith! Globes! imra.org.il! 10/15/13! Dialog! Haaretz! imra.org.il! 10/18/13! Dialog! Haaretz! knessetjeremy.com! 10/29/13! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 11/1/13! Smith! Globes! knessetjeremy.com! 11/4/13! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 11/28/13! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 11/28/13! Smith! Globes! knessetjeremy.com! 12/25/13! Midgam! Walla! knessetjeremy.com! 12/26/13! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 12/26/13! Smith! Globes! imra.org.il! 12/26/13! Shvakim!Panorama! Times!of!Israel! knessetjeremy.com! 1/5/14! Midgam! Channel!2! knessetjeremy.com! 1/9/14! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 1/16/14! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 1/21/14! NA! Channel!1! knessetjeremy.com! 1/22/14! Geocartography! Israel!radio!103! knessetjeremy.com! 1/23/14! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 1/30/14! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 1/31/14! Smith! Globes! knessetjeremy.com! 2/3/14! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 2/6/14! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 2/11/14! Teleseker! Walla! knessetjeremy.com! 2/24/14! Dialog! Haaretz! knessetjeremy.com! 2/27/14! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! 3/6/14! Panels! Channel!99! knessetjeremy.com! ! !

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