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Examining the Relevance of the Theories University of Wollongong Research Online University of Wollongong Thesis Collection University of Wollongong Thesis Collections 2012 Examining the relevance of the theories of guerrilla warfare in explaining the Lord's Resistance Army insurgency in Northern Uganda Herman Rujumba Butime University of Wollongong Recommended Citation Butime, Herman Rujumba, Examining the relevance of the theories of guerrilla warfare in explaining the Lord's Resistance Army insurgency in Northern Uganda, Doctor of Philosophy thesis, Faculty of Law, University of Wollongong, 2012. http://ro.uow.edu.au/ theses/3631 Research Online is the open access institutional repository for the University of Wollongong. For further information contact the UOW Library: [email protected] EXAMINING THE RELEVANCE OF THE THEORIES OF GUERRILLA WARFARE IN EXPLAINING THE LORD’S RESISTANCE ARMY INSURGENCY IN NORTHERN UGANDA A thesis in fulfilment of the requirements for the award of the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY From UNIVERSITY OF WOLLONGONG By Herman Rujumba Butime Bachelor of Arts in Social Sciences (Makerere University Kampala) Master of Arts in International Relations (University of Nottingham) CENTRE FOR TRANSNATIONAL CRIME PREVENTION FACULTY OF LAW 2012 1 THESIS CERTIFICATION CERTIFICATION I, Herman Rujumba Butime, declare that this thesis, submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the award of Doctor of Philosophy, in the Faculty of Law, University of Wollongong, is wholly my own work unless otherwise referenced or acknowledged. The document has not been submitted for qualifications at any other academic institution. …………………………………….. Herman Rujumba Butime 02nd March, 2012 2 EXAMINING THE RELEVANCE OF THE THEORIES OF GUERRILLA WARFARE IN EXPLAINING THE LORD’S RESISTANCE ARMY INSURGENCY IN NORTHERN UGANDA TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgements……………………………………………………………………..7 Acronyms……………………………………………………………………………….8 Abstract………………………………………………………………………………..10 Chapter 1 : BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY…………………………………………………….12 1.1 Roots of Conflict in Northern Uganda…………………………………12 1.1.1: Introduction…………………………………………………………….12 1.1.2: Colonial Roots of Conflict in Northern Uganda……………………….14 1.1.3: Post-Colonial Roots of Conflict in Northern Uganda………………….15 1.2 Evolution of Insurgency in Northern Uganda………………………….18 1.2.1: The Uganda People’s Democratic Army Rebellion (1986-1988)……...19 1.2.2: The Holy Spirit Movement I Rebellion (1986-1988)…………………..20 1.2.3: The Holy Spirit Movement II Rebellion (1988-1989).………………....21 1.3 : Evolution of the Lord’s Resistance Army Insurgency (1987-todate)......21 1.3.1: Emergence (1987-1990)………………………………………………...22 1.3.2: Countering the Emergence of LRA: Operation North (1991-1992)……23 1.3.3: The Bigombe Peace Initiative (1993)…………………………………...24 1.3.4: Securing External Support (1994)………………………………………25 1.3.5: Loss of External Support (1999-2002)………………………………….26 1.3.6: The Juba Peace Process (2005-2008)…………………………………...27 1. 4 : Research Problem and Research Methodology…………………………28 1.4.1: Problem Statement………………………………………………………28 1.4.2: Primary/Broad Research Question………………………………………29 1.4.3: Secondary/Specific Research Questions…………………………….......29 1.4.4: Research Hypotheses……………………………………………………29 1.4.5: Scope of the Study………………………………………………………31 1.4.6: Significance of the Study………………………………………………..31 1.4.7: Research Methodology………………………………………………….32 End Notes………………………………………………………………..36 Chapter 2 : THEORETICAL REVIEW I…………………………………………43 2.1 : Defining and Operationalizing Guerrilla Warfare……………………43 2.2 : Constructing an Insurgent Identity……………………………….......47 2.2.1 : Ideology………………………………………………………………48 2.2.2 : Popular Support and Propaganda…………………………………….50 2.2.2.1: Popular Support………………………………………………………50 2.2.2.2: Propaganda…………………………………………………………...54 2.2.3 : Motivation and Esprit de Corps……………………………………....59 2.2.4 : Recruitment……………………………………………………….......63 3 End Notes…………………………………………………………..68 Chapter 3: THEORETICAL REVIEW II……………………………………………75 Operationalizing Insurgent Activity…………………………………......75 3.1: Training………………………………………………………………...75 3.2: Organizational Structure………………………………………………..79 3.3: Guerrilla Bases…………..……………………………………………...84 3.4: Funding and External Support………………………………………….87 3.5: Guerrilla Strategy……………………………………………………….91 3.5.1: Combatant-to-Combatant Engagements……………………………...92 3.5.2: Combatant-to-Non Combatant Engagements (Terrorism)……………96 3.6: Guerrilla Tactics………………………………………………………...98 3.7: Weapons and Weapons Acquisition…………………………………...104 End Notes………………………………………………………………..109 Chapter 4 : TESTING THE INSURGENT ATTRIBUTES OF LRA: IDENTITY…………………………………………………………...119 4.1 : Ideology……………………………………………………………...119 4.1.1: Grievances/Aims……………………………………………………..120 4.1.2: Ideology……………………………………………………………...124 4.2 : Popular Support and Propaganda…………………………………….127 4.2.1: Popular Support……………………………………………………... 127 4.2.2: Propaganda…………………………………………………………...131 4.3 : Motivation and Esprit de Corps……………………………………...135 4.4 : Recruitment…………………………………………………………..141 End Notes…………………………………………………………….150 Chapter 5 : TESTING THE INSURGENT ATTRIBUTES OF LRA: OPERATIONAL………………………………………………….156 5.1 : Training…………………………………………………………...156 5.1.1 : Induction and Training……………………………………………156 5.1.2 : Career Progression………………………………………………..160 5.2 : Organizational Structure………………………………………….163 5.2.1 : Composition………………………………………………………164 5.2.1.1: Ethnicity…………………………………………………………..164 5.2.1.2: Gender…………………………………………………………….165 5.2.1.3: Age………………………………………………………………..165 5.2.2 : Troop Strength……………………………………………………166 5.2.3 : Structure…………………………………………………………..169 5.2.4 : Leadership and Intra-organizational Schisms…………………….179 5.3 : Guerrilla Bases …………………………………………………...184 5.4 : Funding and External Support……………………………………188 5.5 : Guerrilla Strategy and Tactics…………………………………….193 5.5.1 : Rationalization of Strategy and Tactics…………………………...194 5.5.2 : Operationalization of Strategy and Tactics……………………….197 5.6 : Weapons and Weapons Acquisition………………………………204 4 End Notes…………………………………………………………209 Chapter 6 : CONCLUSION…………………………………………………...219 6.1 : LRA INSURGENT ATTRIBUTES: IDENTITY………………...223 6.1.1 : Ideology…………………………………………………………...223 6.1.2 : Popular Support…………………………………………………...224 6.1.3 : Propaganda………………………………………………………..225 6.1.4 : Motivation………………………………………………………...226 6.1.5 : Recruitment……………………………………………………….227 6.2 : LRA INSURGENT ATTRIBUTES: OPERATIONAL………….229 6.2.1 : Training…………………………………………………………...229 6.2.2 : Career Progression………………………………………………..230 6.2.3 : Organizational Structure………………………………………….231 6.2.4 : Guerrilla Bases……………………………………………………233 6.2.5 : Funding and External Support……………………………………234 6.2.6 : Strategy and Tactics………………………………………………235 6.2.7 : Weapons and Weapons Acquisition……………………………...238 6.3 : Research Questions Revisited…………………………………….239 6.3.1 : Attacking the Support Base……………………………………….239 6.3.2 : Evolution of Military Strategy……………………………………240 : End Notes…………………………………………………………242 Chapter 7 : IMPLICATIONS FOR COUNTERINSURGENCY STRATEGY. …………………………………………………………………….246 7.1 : TARGETING LRA ATTRIBUTES: IDENTITY………………..246 7.1.1 : Targeting Ideology……………………………………………….246 7.1.2 : Targeting Propaganda……………………………………………247 7.1.3 : Targeting Popular Support……………………………………….248 7.1.4 : Targeting Motivation…………………………………………….249 7.1.5 : Targeting Recruitment…………………………………………...250 7.2 : TARGETING LRA ATTRIBUTES: OPERATIONAL…………252 7.2.1 : Targeting Training……………………………………………….252 7.2.2 : Targeting Organizational Structure……………………………...253 7.2.3 : Targeting Guerrilla Bases………………………………………..254 7.2.4 : Targeting Funding and External Support………………………...254 7.2.5 : Targeting Strategy and Tactics…………………………………..256 7.2.6 : Targeting Weapons and Weapons Acquisition…………………..258 7.3 : Recent Developments and Prospects for a Resurgence of the LRA Threat…………………………………………………………….259 7.4 : How the LRA Insurgency might End……………………………263 7.5 : The Transition from Insurgency to Post-Insurgency…………….266 7.6 : Significance of the Research Findings…………………………...267 7.7 : Areas for Further Research………………………………………270 End Notes………………………………………………………...272 5 : FIGURES AND TABLES Figure 1: Evolution of the Ideology of LRA……………………120 Figure 2: Troop Strength of LRA……………………………….167 Figure 3: Centralized Command Structure of LRA……………..177 Appendix 1: Testing the Insurgent Attributes of LRA: Identity.. 277 Appendix 2: Testing the Insurgent Attributes of LRA: Operational .. …………………………………………………………………283 Appendix 3: Field Research Contacts…………………………....289 Appendix 4: Interview Schedule (Experts)………………………291 Appendix 5: Interview Schedule (Ex-LRA Combatants)………..293 Bibliography……………………………………………………..295 6 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This research would never have been accomplished without a support network. I wish to thank the Almighty God for giving me the wisdom to undertake and complete my doctoral studies. I am grateful to Professor Adam Dolnik and Dr Sam Mullins for supervising my thesis. I wish to express my gratitude to Yee Sin Ang, a PhD Physics Candidate at the University of Wollongong for assisting me in digitizing some of the diagrams in my thesis. Without the dedicated support of staff at Campus East (where I have lived for three years), the University of Wollongong Library, University of Wollongong Medical Centre and National Australia Bank (University of Wollongong Branch), it would have been extremely difficult for me to fulfil my academic obligations. In conducting my field research in Uganda, I had to rely on the critical support
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