Surviving(Elections:(( Violence(and(Leader(Tenure1( ! Emilie!M.!Hafner.Burton! Associate!Professor!! School!of!International!Relations!and!Pacific!Studies! !University!of!California,!San!Diego!
[email protected]! ! Susan!D.!Hyde! Associate!Professor! Department!of!Political!Science! Yale!University!
[email protected]!! ! Ryan!S.!Jablonski! PhD!Candidate! Department!of!Political!Science! University!of!California,!San!Diego!
[email protected]! ! Draft:!2/18/13! ! ( ( Abstract( This!article!examines!how!government.sponsored!election!violence!influences!the!ability!of! incumbent!leaders!to!win!elections!and!remain!in!power.!We!argue!that!election!violence!is! a!costly!tradeoff!for!governments.!When!used!in!the!pre.election!period,!up!to!and! including!election!day,!government.sponsored!election!violence!against!opposition! supporters,!candidates,!and!the!citizenry!increases!the!probability!that!opposition!political! parties!boycott!the!election!and!the!incumbent!wins.!Yet!pre.election!violence!also! increases!the!probability!of!mass!post.election!protests!by!the!opposition,!which!in!turn! raise!the!odds!that!the!incumbent!will!be!forced!to!make!political!concessions!in!the!post. election!period!by!stepping!down!or!holding!new!elections.!Violence!against!protesters! does!not!change!these!odds.!! ! 1!Replication!data!are!available!at!____.! ! ! Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1975026 “RWANDA;!‘CLIMATE!OF!REPRESSION’!AS!VOTING!CONCLUDES”! !“VENEZUELAN!ANALYSTS!PREDICT!INCREASED!REPRESSION!AS!CHAVEZ!SUPPORT!WANES”! !“TWO!KILLED,!SCORES!INJURED!AS!VIOLENCE!MARS!BANGLADESH!CAMPAIGN”!