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Looking at the 2006 Mexican Elections CONFERENCE REPORT Looking at the 2006 Mexican Elections ELECTORAL DEMOCRACY AND POLITICAL Introduction PARTIES IN MEXICO On July 2, 2006, Mexicans will go to the polls to elect Mexico’s next president and to The widely accepted idea that more renew the federal Congress (senators and competitive electoral contests eventually deputies). The composition of Mexico’s new force a more institutionalized and open government will, no doubt, be of great nomination process of candidates was relevance for Canada, in light of the deep questioned by Prud’homme in light of the relationship that exists between these two developments observed in Mexico. Instead, countries as partners in North America. he argued, what we have seen in 2005 is that parties have met the requirement of Despite the importance of these elections, institutionalization and openness to different information about the electoral process and degrees. the developments in the political race to the presidency have not been covered Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) extensively in Canada. In the case of the PRD, the ideology of internal democracy seems to compete with For this reason, the Canadian Foundation for the preference to build unity around a leader the Americas (FOCAL) in partnership with capable of holding together the multiple the Centre for North American Politics and factions within the party. The selection of Society (CNAPS) at Carleton University Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) as convened the conference Looking at the 2006 the party’s candidate indicates the Mexican Elections to provide some insights continuation of their traditional model that about the nomination process of Mexico’s bases party unity on the existence of a main political parties, on the preferences of charismatic leader. They did so in 1989, the electorate as of November 2005, and to when a number of social and political forces discuss some similarities and differences coalesced around Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas (the between Mexico and Canada in these themes. PRD’s moral leader), and in 2005 around This conference featured: AMLO. The problem of the PRD is that it lacks solid internal rules to withstand a Jean-François Prud’homme, El competitive nomination process. Colegio de México Jorge Buendía Laredo, Ipsos-Bimsa AMLO’s candidacy was built from the inside and the outside. During his first ten With comments from Jon Pammet, Carleton months as Major of Mexico City, AMLO University changed in order to please the electorate: he The following is a report on the presentations avoided confrontation with President and the discussions that took place at Vicente Fox and centred his attention on Carleton University on November 25, 2005. public works. While we will not reproduce literally the questions posed to the members of the panel, The first attempt to contest his leadership we will note the main themes addressed. from within the party occurred when Cárdenas stated his interest in competing in Looking at the 2006 Mexican Elections – Conference Report the PRD’s primaries, but that came to an end by Another option was to undertake three regional July 2005 when he officially withdrew from the primaries, which would favour the less-known competition. Without Cárdenas’ bid, AMLO candidate to the electorate (in this case Felipe became the natural—and only—candidate for the Calderón). In the end the latter option was selected party. With the decision of Congress to strip and Felipe Calderón was able to achieve a solid AMLO of his political immunity to face charges of victory. This process gave the party great legitimacy contempt of court his popularity increased in the eyes of the electorate, which explains the significantly. increasing electoral support for the PAN/Calderón in the last months. His challenge now, however, is that he is more popular than his party. That is why he has created a Party of the Institutional Revolution (PRI) parallel structure known as “citizen networks of The PRI is the most institutionalized party. When it support” (redes ciudadanas de apoyo)—just as was in power, the not written rule was that the Vicente Fox did in the lead up to the 2000 outgoing president could designate its successor presidential elections with “Fox’s Friends” (dedazo)—a process that was replicated in the (Amigos de Fox). nomination processes in the different levels of government. The party’s capacity to do so and to Because he was identified as a candidate much retain internal discipline was lost when the PRI lost earlier than the rest, AMLO has appeared as the the presidential elections of 2000. front-runner in most polls. In the last months of 2005, however, the distance between him and the Currently the PRI’s challenge is to try to substitute other candidates in the electorate’s preferences was the president’s informal capacity to nominate its not so large anymore. successor with some type of formal nomination procedure that would be accepted by most of the Tension between the strength of the charismatic party’s sectors (including the unions). Tensions leader and the different factions within the PRD is between Roberto Madrazo (former President of the expressed at the local level. Of particular interest party and now its official candidate) and Elba Esther were the primary elections in Mexico City of Gordillo (former Secretary General of the party) December 4, 2005, where Marcelo Ebrard (close to illustrate the deep divisions that exist within the PRI.1 AMLO) and Jesús Ortega (leader of the faction Prior to the primary elections, a new faction— New Left or “Chuchos”) were contending for the Democratic Union, better known as “All united PRD candidature for Mexico’s city local elections. against Madrazo” or TUCOM—was created to contend against Madrazo in the PRI’s internal National Action Party (PAN) process. Members of TUCOM organized their own Until 2005, PAN’s delegates—elected by party primaries to select their candidate—won by Arturo members—used to select their party’s candidates Montiel (former Governor of the State of Mexico). through party conventions. However, as elections Montiel withdrew from the contest when his became more competitive, the party was ownership of unaccounted properties in other confronted with the need to widen participation countries was reported in the media. In the end, the and to become a mass party without losing the selection of the candidate was done in the same old reins of the party. The PAN, thus, decided to opt way and it led to Madrazo’s victory. for primaries to select its candidates, and launched a very aggressive campaign to seek new members. In general, despite the attempt to create internal rules to select candidates, the PRI has found it difficult to The PAN held discussions about what method to present itself to the electorate as a new party. In terms use to undertake their primaries. One option was to of structure, the PRI is strong, but it has a have just one round—the preferred option of questionable nomination process. To reach out to the former Minister of Interior, Santiago Creel. electorate they will need to design solid campaigns. 2 Looking at the 2006 Mexican Elections – Conference Report LOOKING AT THE 2006: ELECTORAL the elections. Independent voters—those that do not PREFERENCES AS OF NOVEMBER 2005 identify with any party in particular—thus will be determinant in the outcome of the 2006 elections. According to Buendía, an historical analysis of a series of polls undertaken by the diverse polling Independent voters companies show (with few exceptions) that AMLO As of November 2005, AMLO had the support of had been the front-runner up to November 2005. In PRD’s sympathizers, and the majority of polls taken during the last quarter of 2005 independents. But he had the support as well from Calderón appeared in second place with 3 to 5 certain PAN and PRI sympathizers—something to points of difference with Madrazo. The results of take note of in the event of strategic voting. This is the poll conducted by Ipsos-Bimsa between explained by the perception among these people of September and November 2005 AMLO as the embodiment of change. In this sense, [http://www.focal.ca/projects/interamericanaffairs/mexico/ Buendía argued, it could be said that AMLO is not the CANADA%20VOTE%20CHOICE.ppt] show that the substitute of Cárdenas; rather, he seems to be the distance between the three candidates is not that substitute of Vicente Fox in 2000. large anymore and that if anything the 2006 elections will be a close three-party race. Support for AMLO from independents reached its peak during the impeachment process, declining He stressed that the key variables analyzed for vote afterwards.2 Some of that support had gone to the choice in 2006 were: Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM). However, Candidates’ popularity if the PVEM formed an alliance with the PRI,3 then Partisanship part of that support would return to AMLO. Independent voters Presidential approval and state of the economy Presidential Approval and State of the Economy Generally, the poll shows that people dissatisfied with Candidates’ popularity the status quo and who disapprove the current In terms of the popularity of the candidates, he government’s performance tend to prefer AMLO over mentioned that name recognition of AMLO has Madrazo. Instead, those who are satisfied with the remained at high levels through time (over 90%). performance of the current government tend to The most remarkable change is that of Felipe support Calderón. Calderón, whose name recognition rose from levels below 50% in February to 84% in November A GLANCE AT THESE CHALLENGES FROM CANADA 2005. This is explained by the PAN’s internal nomination process. In both these cases, positive Efforts to solve the democratic deficit within political opinions about the candidates outnumber the parties—i.e.
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