DECEMBER-2020

BULLETIN H I GHL I GHT OF THE FORE I G N P O L I CY OF REPUBL I C OF AZERBA I JAN

Table of contents

I. Liberation of Lachin and rebuilding Karabakh 2

II. Restoration of a stable peace in the region requires a revision of approaches 3

III. - Propaganda War and Western Media Bias 5

IV. Armenia plunges into political crisis after defeat in the Second Karabakh War 7

V. United Nations General Assembly convenes special session on the coronavirus pandemic 9

VI. The Southern Gas Corridor opens up gas supply to Europe 10

VII. Azerbaijan and discuss boosting bilateral ties 11

VIII. Year in Review 12

I. Liberation of Lachin and rebuilding have been entirely demolished and razed to Karabakh the ground during the period they were under Lachin became the last of three occupied the control of Armenia. Apart from residential districts due to be handed back by Armenia as and administrative buildings, according to the part of the Russian-brokered peace deal official sources, 700 historic and cultural following the six-week war. In a televised monuments damaged or destroyed; 927 address to the nation on December 1, libraries; 808 cultural centers; 85 music and art President congratulated the schools; 22 museums with over 100,000 nation on the return of Lachin. “We, for our artefacts; 4 art galleries, 4 theatres, 2 concert part, have already restored justice. We have halls in these territories over the last thirty restored historical justice. Our goal is to years. The reconstruction of the region is prevent Armenian fascism from rearing its therefore a process that will take a long period of time and massive financial resources. head in this region. If someone wants to provide Armenia with a territory for the According to some experts, this may take 5-10 establishment of a second state, let them give years and cost more than 10 billion dollars. At them a part of their territory," President Ilham the same time, Azerbaijan is determined that Aliyev said in his televised speech. President the life will be restored in the liberated lands Ilham Aliyev also emphasized the challenges which used to be one of the most prosperous facing the country regarding the process of the parts of Azerbaijan in the past. The rebuilding the lands liberated from the government already announced that it plans to occupation. “Everything is devastated – the allocate 2.2 billion manats (1.3 billion dollars) infrastructure is destroyed, residential and for reconstruction works in the liberated administrative buildings are demolished. territories in 2021. “A restoration period is There are currently no living conditions in now setting in. Large-scale construction work will be carried out. Of course, first of all, these places. But we will restore these regions, all our districts; we will take all steps to create Azerbaijani companies will take part in this a normal life for our citizens. As you know, the work, and we will invite companies from first projects have already started. Relevant countries that are friendly to us,” President funds have been allocated from the Ilham Aliyev noted in a meeting with the President's Contingency Fund. The parliamentary delegation of Italy in Baku. construction of the Fuzuli-Shusha highway and Baku has already signed first contracts with the Barda-Aghdam railway has already begun. Turkish companies. The reconstruction This shows that we plan this work as efficiently process attracts European states, too. For as possible and so that to organize all these example, James Sharp, British Ambassador to activities without wasting time. Relevant Azerbaijan, tweeted about his meeting with government body has already been set up and Ramin Guluzade, Azerbaijani Minister of all this work will be carried out in a Transport, Communications and High coordinated manner,” President Ilham Aliyev Technologies on December 1, stating that they noted. discussed the construction of “smart cities” in Seven districts around the former Nagorno- “the territories liberated from the Karabakh region that were home to more than occupation”. According to Vasif Huseynov, a 700,000 before their occupation senior advised at the Center of Analysis of during the First Karabakh War (1988-1994) International Relations of Azerbaijan (AIR 3

Center), “it was a signal that the companies On December 10, Azerbaijan also held a from those states who demonstrated anti- to mark the country's victory Azerbaijani position in the Second Karabakh over Armenia. The parade was presided over War would not be welcome in the by President Ilham Aliyev and his guest of reconstruction of the liberated territories”. In honor, President of Recep Tayyip his address on December 1, President Ilham Erdogan. During the victory parade, Azerbaijan Aliyev underscored that “the overall displayed Armenian hardware and weapons economic, agricultural and tourism potential captured during the Second Karabakh War. of all the liberated districts is enormous. We must maximize this potential and turn the Karabakh region into one of the most beautiful II. Restoration of a stable peace in areas not only in Azerbaijan, but also the the region requires a revision of world, and I am sure that we will achieve this”. approaches Not a comprehensive state program has been In a televised address to the nation on announced yet that covers the reconstruction December 1, President Ilham Aliyev urged plans of the Azerbaijani government, but a those dissatisfied with the outcome of the war number of measures have been taken and to come to terms with the post-war reality and announcements have been made. assist the restoration of a stable peace in the Immediately after the liberation of the Shusha region. The South needs a fresh city, Azerbaijan announced the construction of perspective on security. Currently, there is no a new road to the city that will be more than a unanimity about a sound future peace based hundred kilometers. Three companies from on the principle of territorial integrity in Turkey and Azerbaijan are involved in the accordance with international law. Such a process which is expected to complete in 1,5 vision of peace would have allowed all regional years. Azerbaijan’s Highways State Agency has actors to be free from the burden of past announced plans for new roads to be built in grievances and free to develop economic the near future connecting Karabakh region to opportunities similar to the European project the rest of Azerbaijan. The establishment of after World War II. Establishing such highways and railroads are seen as an consensus will, in the end, benefit all important start for future reconstruction work stakeholders: , Turkey, Iran, the in the region, as well as for economic build-up. European Union, and the United States. The tripartite agreement between the leaders Criticizing the French Senate resolution that of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia that ended recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as an the Second Karabakh War on the 10th of independent entity, in his address to the November declared the opening of all nation, President Ilham Aliyev reiterated the communication channels in the region and impossibility of another Armenian state on provided Azerbaijan with a corridor with its Azerbaijani lands. “The demand that an landlocked exclave Nakhchivan Autonomous Armenian state be created on historically and Republic through Armenia. Azerbaijan is legally Azerbaijani lands defies all logic. This planning to build a highway and railroad does not fit any logic or justice. What do you communication to Nakhchivan which will also want from our lands? Countries located connect the country with its major strategic thousands of kilometers away from here are ally, Turkey. now adopting laws, their parliaments are discussing this issue. What does the French

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Parliament have to do with this issue? How out, “this is equally applicable to both the past many years has France been co-chairing the twenty-seven years since the adoption of the Minsk Group? Has it lifted a finger? Has it UN Security Council resolutions on Nagorno- taken a tangible step to address this issue? Karabakh and the expiration of the five-year However, look, what happens after this issue Russian peacekeeping mandate under the has been resolved. The French Senate adopts ceasefire terms”. a resolution to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh. If While there has been an overflow of articles in you like them so much, then, as I said during the Western media about the geopolitical the war, give the city of Marseille to the implications of this conflict, mainly focusing on , change its name, create a second the roles of Russia and Turkey, the state for them there. But no-one can interfere overwhelming majority of journalists and in our affairs," President Ilham Aliyev experts have concentrated on profiling the underscored. interests of the regional powers or the It is concerning that those in the West who Western bloc, rather than discussing what empathize with the current miserable might constitute a sustainable peace in the situation of Armenia often voice the same South Caucasus. Future peace should be based position that brought to its current upon a sustainable agreement rooted in impasse. French president Emmanuel Macron coexistence and cooperation. However, the expressed an anti-Azerbaijani position and main challenge is not the status of Armenians France’s Senate adopted a declaration calling in Nagorno-Karabakh, but the lack of will of for the recognition of an independent Armenians to live with Azerbaijanis—either in Nagorno-Karabakh. France’s stance is the Azerbaijan or even in Armenia. expression of its anti-Turkish sentiment and Unfortunately, the signals thus far give little pandering to the Armenian lobby. It will not hope for the drastic changes necessary to help Armenia to recover from its wounds create a future sustainable peace. For caused by a discredited policy based on example, Vazgen Manukyan, the candidate for territorial claims. The the premiership proposed by the opposition, lobby, detached from the realities of the home instead of seeking to resolve the regional country, denies the geography of Armenia by conflicts and bring peace and security to the perpetuating hostility and resentment against region, vowed to take a leading role in any Armenia’s neighbors. The Second Karabakh anti-Turkish alliance. To create a stable and War should be a reminder to the international long-lasting peace, policymakers should bring community, and especially to America, attention all displaced peoples, including Europe, and Russia, the principal mediators of Azerbaijanis in Armenia and Armenians in the the original conflict, that a ceasefire, no matter rest of Azerbaijan (250,000 Azerbaijanis were how long in duration, is fundamentally expelled from Armenia and 360,000 unstable. Turning blind eye to international Armenians left Azerbaijan in 1988–90). True law does not bring stability in any given region, reconciliation is not possible without efforts to despite whatever short-term gains global and return to more integrated populations such as regional actors might get from freezing a were prevalent in pre-conflict days. For conflict—or leaving it unresolved. As Dr. Farid instance, only in the twentieth century a large Shafiyev, Chairman of the Center of Analysis of of Yerevan became a International Relations (AIR Center), pointed minority and then completely disappeared. At

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the same time, some voices have spoken out article in the Conversation titled “Armenians about a vision of future cooperation. displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh fear their Armenia’s new Minister of Economy, Vahan medieval churches will be destroyed”. In the Kerobyan, in an interview with Public TV of article, Christina Maranci intentionally Armenia, discussed the benefits of opening the misrepresents the 1921 decision of the Soviet country’s borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey; Union on Nagorno-Karabakh. This often they “will open and many vast opportunities mischaracterized by the Armenian side will be provided. Perhaps the Azerbaijani decision of the Caucasian Bureau decided to market will open for us, and our market for “keep” Nagorno-Karabakh within Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan.” thus once again confirming that the region was In his address to the nation on December 1, a part of Azerbaijan in the first place. President Ilham Aliyev highlighted that the Furthermore, Christina Maranci completely ignores the systematic destruction of transit corridor between the main territory of Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan, running through Azerbaijani cities and infrastructure, including the Armenian Megri region, will open up vast Azerbaijan’s religious heritage, mosques and opportunities for all regional countries. places of worship during the decades-long Armenia desperately needs a new vision of its occupation of Azerbaijani territories by own future based on improved relations with Armenia. After the Second Karabakh War its neighbors. If Armenia continues to insist on ended, the international community the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh and witnessed the magnitude of the destruction. other xenophobic narratives, the country will The city of Agdam was dubbed by many as the be trapped and further isolated, unable to “Hiroshima of Caucasus” due to the extent of have an independent foreign and economic destruction that the city has endured. As many policy. Muslim holy places in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan, Agdam Mosque was also desecrated and almost destroyed, turned into III. Armenia-Azerbaijan Propaganda pigsty and animal stables. Around 67 mosques War and Western Media Bias in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan were fully destroyed and, despite repeated calls One of the most worrying trends observed from the government of Azerbaijan, UNESCO during the Second Karabakh War was refused to send a fact-finding mission. misinformation campaign and systematic However, once Armenians voiced their dissemination of false narratives under the concern about Armenian churches in guise of objective journalism. Armenians and Karabakh, UNESCO demanded immediate Armenian sponsored experts launched a access despite the problem with landmines in misinformation campaign, blaming Azerbaijan the newly liberated territories. for the destruction of Christian heritage during the war. What’s more, Western media outlets By comparison, Azerbaijan has vowed to refused to grant the Azerbaijani side a right of restore and protect all religious shrines in the reply, essentially encouraging the spreading of de-occupied territories, including Christian fake news and such false narratives. For churches. As a matter of fact, two Armenian instance, Christina Maranci, professor and shrines – Gazanchesots church in Shusha and chair of the Armenian Art and Architecture Dadivank monastery in Vank, which were at Department at Tufts University, published an the spotlight of the Western media remain

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overall intact. Gazanchesots suffered from his own narrative historical facts and focused accidental rocket strike, and the government only on the period between 1897 to 1920 of Azerbaijan pledges to restore it as they did instead. the Armenian Church in Baku. For centuries, As Dr. Farid Shafiyev and Dr. Esmira Jafarova Christian heritage existed in the territory of pointed out, “the Russian conquest of the Azerbaijan, which was mostly reigned by South Caucasus, which included the Karabakh Azerbaijani/Turkic rulers. As the conflict khanate, changed the fate of the people who erupted in 1988, many Western experts raised had been living there more or less peacefully concern about the Armenian heritage, for centuries. Specifically, worse days arrived especially khachkars tomb-stones. Yet, for Muslim Azerbaijanis and better ones for Armenian Church right in the heart of Baku, Christian Armenians”. The American scholar damaged during the events of the early 1990s, Tadeusz Swietochowski also pointed out that has been fully restored and nearly 5,000 Armenians enjoyed a Russian protective shield Armenian manuscripts are kept in the library that enabled them to advance socially and of the church. politically at a fast pace and to capture Another piece of propaganda and deliberate important economic positions in the region misinformation was published by the New (Russian Azerbaijan, Cambridge University York Review of Books titled “Armenia’s Press, 1985, p.37). Tragedy in Shushi”, written by Viken Historically, both communities suffered from Berberian. Despite the fact that the article is attacks and lootings. In 1920, it was mostly blatant misrepresentation and distortion of Armenians who suffered from violence the history of Shusha, it was, nevertheless, instigated by territorial dispute between managed to get published, which raises young republics, Azerbaijan and Armenia, both question about the journalistic integrity of the of which eventually were incorporated into the editors in the New York Review of Books. . The fall of Shusha in May 1992 Shusha was establsihed by the Azerbaijani- was a turning point in the modern history of Turkic ruler Panakh ali Khan in 1752 as the the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. capital of the Karabakh khanate. During It led to the ethnic cleansing of Azerbaijani Shusha’s whole history until its capture on May population of the entire region of historical 8, 1992, the city’s population was mainly Karabakh, which was and is internationally overwhelmingly Turkic/Azerbaijani (Thomas recognized as part of Azerbaijan. De Waal de Waal, Black Garden, NYU Press, 2013, p. wrote that “After Armenian forces captured 13). After the Russian conquest in 1823, the the town, hundreds of people swarmed into it, Turkic population (called “” by the looting and burning.” Most historical buildings Russians) was 72 percent (“Opisanie were destroyed, along with museums and the Karabakhskoi provintsii sostavlennoe v 1823 g. residences of many famous Azerbaijani po rasporiazheniiu glavnoupravliaiushego v musicians like Uzeyir Hajibeyov (composer of Gruzii Ermolova deistvitel’nim statskim first opera from out of the east, Leyli and sovetnikom Mogilevskim i polkovnikom Mejnun) and the singer Bulbul. Armenian Ermolovim 2-m” Tbilisi, 1866). By 1897 the warlords tried to erase the Azerbaijani Russian settlement policy had diminished this heritage of the city. For example, the Yukhari proportion to 41 percent. Nevertheless, the Govhar Agha mosque was “renovated” by author chose to ignore these inconvenient for Iranians and rebranded as Iranian heritage. But

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for most of its occupation by Armenians, suppressed by jingoist rhetoric. As the Shusha was a “sad city” as the current Armenian scholar Arman Grigorian points out, Armenia’s Prime Minister the Armenian media is responsible for described it recently. While Armenian encouraging the nationalist mythology that led nationalists deplored their recent loss of to the current impasse for Armenia. By Shusha, Pashinyan bitterly exclaimed that publishing such misinformed pieces that are Shusha was lost 30 years ago since little was designed to misled the readers and create invested there to develop or even maintain the false narratives, Western media outlets only city. further complicate the already difficult process Shusha has enormous symbolic importance for of reconciliation between Armenians and both Armenians and Azerbaijanis. The same is Azerbaijanis. true for Armenia’s capital Yerevan, which contained almost half Azerbaijani population IV. Armenia plunges into political therein in the beginning of the twentieth crisis after defeat in the Second century, but eventually fully expelled in 1988- Karabakh War 89. The only survived Blue Mosque in Yerevan was also rebranded by Armenian authorities as The unexpected, and ultimately, devastating “Persian” heritage. Viken Berberian focused military defeat in the Second Karabakh War exclusively on Armenian tragedies without has provoked an overwhelming political crisis mentioning the well-known evidence of the in Armenia. Having been consistently massacres and expulsions of Azerbaijanis from misinformed by the government about the real Armenia. In the whole article, he limits this situation on the frontline during the war, subject to a single sentence about Khojaly – a Armenians had believed that their army had town that was entirely exterminated, including the control over the situation. The capitulation women and children among 613 victims. The all of a sudden in the night of the November 9 author misrepresents further the causes of the was therefore a great shock for the Armenian recent war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, people who took to the streets protesting which was driven by warlord-presidents against the government and calling for Prime (1998-2008) and Serge Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s resignation. In the Sargsyan (2008-2018) as well as by the following days, some top members of the incumbent Nikol Pashinyan’s populist government, including Foreign Minister demagogy. According to Gerard Libaridian, ex- Zohrab Mnatsakanyan and Defense Minister adviser to president Levon Ter-Petrosian Davit Tonoyan resigned from their positions. In (1991-1998), the Armenian side abandoned a televised address to the nation on November the sober reasoning, while the entire 16, President Armen Sarkisyan of Armenia, international community spoke against the who had previously declared that the peace occupation of Azerbaijani territories, deal had not been consulted with him in especially the seven districts around Nagorno- advance, called for snap parliamentary Karabakh. elections, saying that this is needed to resolve a political crisis sparked by the war. Amidst this The conflict was ignited by irredentist claims troubled period, the verbal fighting between from Armenian nationalists in February 1988. Prime Minister and the former leaders of The few reasonable voices among the Armenia disclosed some important nuances Armenian diaspora were drowned out and about the country’s foreign policy. On

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December 4, talking to a local television President is not less revealing. Declaring that channel, Robert Kocharyan, Armenia’s second the international community has always President, harshly criticized the foreign policy recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as part of of the Pashinyan government and blamed him Azerbaijan, Pashinyan asserts that this on the military defeat in the war. happened so thanks to the diplomatic failures One of the most key moments in Kocharyan’s of his predecessors. “The fact that the interview was regarding the outbreak of Karabakh issue began to be perceived as a violence between Armenia and Azerbaijan in territorial dispute and became our biggest July 2020. Kocharyan disclosed that, on the problem, the fact that Armenia gradually contrary to what was previously stated by the began to be perceived by the international Armenian leadership, it was Armenia that community as an occupier, did not happen in provoked the confrontation. Recalling the the last two years. And in the last two years, an attempt has been made to get out of this statements of the Armenian government at the time of the border confrontation, vicious circle”, he protests. Defending his Pashinyan had accused Azerbaijan of foreign policy course, Pashinyan argued that “provocations” that would “not go his government failed in the attempts to unanswered” and his defense minister said relieve itself from the burden of the diplomatic Armenian forces would react “including by failures of his predecessors, not in its own taking advantageous positions” in Azerbaijani diplomacy. territory. Kocharyan’s statement does While it is true that former leaders of Armenia therefore cast light on the background of the did little to resolve the conflict and prevent its July fighting which was apparently provoked drift to the eventual tragedy for Armenians, by Armenia to expand the geography of the Pashinyan failed to pursue a different policy, conflict and problematize Azerbaijan’s although he had such an opportunity when he transport with its Western partners. came to power. The conflict between Armenia Kocharyan also touched upon the diplomatic and Azerbaijan had transformed into its most failures and provocations of the Armenian non-confrontational period following leadership that brought “the war in Karabakh Armenia’s Velvet Revolution in 2018, that closer”. “I am sure that the authorities did brought Pashinyan to the premiership. The everything to make the war inevitable. Firstly, year after the government change in Armenia, the negotiation process was deliberately the conflict marked its arguably most peaceful stalled. With our mutually exclusive year in 2019 when the casualties on the statements we created a situation in which the frontline declined substantially. For example, co-chairs [of the Minsk Group of the OSCE] did while 39 military servicemen were killed in not know what the Armenian side wanted. It 2017, the year before Armenia’s power change seemed that Armenia does everything for a in 2018, casualties dropped to eight, including dead end. And the war began at a time when one civilian, in 2019.This happened against the no one doubted that the negotiations were backdrop of secret negotiations between the being thwarted by the Armenian side,” governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan Kocharian said, adding that “the defeated initiated by the former. It later became clear, authorities, who signed the capitulation, must however, that Pashinyan may have aimed for be replaced in the name of the people.” Prime certain stability on the frontline while he was Minister Pashinyan’s responses to former busy with domestic power struggles. Soon he

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quickly abandoned his peace-building a well-prepared and consistent manner. At the initiatives and demonstrated a more same time, as Dr. Esmira Jafarova, a board radicalized nationalistic position towards the member at the Center of Analysis of conflict. His “Karabakh is Armenia, period” International Relations of Azerbaijan (AIR statement, which indirectly meant the Center), pointed out, “Azerbaijan did not unification between the Karabakh region and confine its efforts to domestic achievements. Armenia, was a blow to the peace negotiations Azerbaijan made two voluntary contributions that was arguably much more destructive than to the WHO amounting to 10 million US dollars any moves by his immediate predecessor in total and delivered humanitarian and ”. Unfortunately, it seems that financial assistance to over thirty countries”. Armenia leaders are still not capable of The urgency of the crisis places a special abandoning the confrontational political premium on the role of the United Nations in mindset that caused enormous economic, mustering global solidarity and continuous political, humanitarian and other problems to commitment to curbing the COVID-19, the South Caucasus over the last thirty years. especially given that some governments opted in favor of their own national agendas, V. United Nations General Assembly pursued mutual criticisms and recriminations convenes special session on the instead of cooperating in these difficult times”. coronavirus pandemic As the incumbent Chair of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) for 2019-2022, President On December 3-4, the 31st United Nations Ilham Aliyev during the online summit General Assembly special session on the convened by his initiative on 4 May, proposed coronavirus disease (COVID-19) – the first-ever that NAM countries could initiate convening special session to address a pandemic – has the special online session of the UN General been convened. The special session Assembly on COVID-19 on the level of heads of symbolized the institutional readiness of the state and government. Azerbaijan’s initiative world to fight the common enemy as a united was supported by 150 UN member states. The force and was held at the initiative of President only country that rejected the initiative was of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev. Azerbaijan Armenia, probably because it was Azerbaijan’s responded immediately to the spread of initiative. COVID-19 and undertook necessary measures. The government put the country into In his video address as the chairman of the lockdown and strengthened it as the situation NAM, president of the Republic of Azerbaijan so demanded after the first infection case on Ilham Aliyev stressed the importance of 28 February was detected. The special multilateralism and collective efforts to stave Coronavirus Support Fund was established off the COVID-19 threat. It was noted that the pandemic has stalled global progress, with 19 March 2020 Presidential Decree and the government prepared social, economic intensified global divide and increased and financial support package worth about poverty. It is therefore vital that equal access $2,5 billion, using solely domestic resources. to medical facilities, drugs and a COVID-19 Many new hospitals were built for COVID-19 vaccine for everyone is ensured. President patients and local production of medical masks Aliyev also noted that Azerbaijan supported was introduced. Azerbaijan is also still battling UN Secretary General’s call for global the COVID-19, however, it has been doing so in ceasefires. However, the ceasefire between

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Armenia and Azerbaijan that was in place since famine of unprecedented proportion 1994 has been constantly violated by Armenia. threatens the poorest people in the world”. President Ilham Aliyev also spoke of the recent 44 days’ war between Armenia and Azerbaijan that lasted from 27 September to 10 VI. The Southern Gas Corridor opens November. Having expressed disappointment up gas supply to Europe over the non-implementation of four UN On December 31, the Trans Adriatic Pipeline Security Council resolutions (822, 853, 874 and (TAP) AG notified the commencement of gas 884) on Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict by the flows from Azerbaijan to Europe. The first gas Republic of Armenia, President Aliyev also has reached Greece and Bulgaria, via the Nea highlighted the long list of political and military Mesimvria interconnection point with DESFA, provocations committed by the incumbent as well as Italy, via the Melendugno leadership of Armenia aimed at disrupting the interconnection point with SNAM Rete Gas OSCE-led peace process. Armenia’s consistent (SRG). While the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), provocations behooved Azerbaijan’s military the last stretch of the Southern Gas Corridor, counteroffensive. became operational on November 15, the The special session was chaired by UN General European Commission welcomed the start of Assembly President Volkan Bozkir who pointed operation of the TAP and also expressed its out that “The COVID-19 pandemic has desire to extend the gas corridor into the disrupted life for everyone around the world. Western Balkans. Tim McPhie, the It has challenged our world in ways unlike any spokesperson for Climate Action and Energy at other crisis in the 75-year history of the United the European Commission, noted that “the Nations. COVID-19 is first and foremost a project will increase choice and competition, global health crisis. But it is at the same time improve energy security and diversify gas an economic crisis, a development crisis, a supply, particularly in Italy, Greece and humanitarian crisis, and a human rights crisis. Bulgaria, as well as the South-East European We face the deepest global recession since the region. TAP is a project of EU common interest Great Depression and the broadest collapse in and an important part of the Southern gas incomes since 1870. The world economy has corridor”. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan and Turkey shrunk by 4.4 %. Global extreme poverty is also signed a Memorandum of Understanding expected to rise for the first time in over 20 on the construction of a new gas pipeline that years. Up to 115 million people are at risk of will run from Turkey’s Ighdir province to being pushed into extreme poverty. Foreign Azerbaijan’s Nakhichevan exclave. The investments have been evaporating. Trade and pipeline is expected to be completed within a travel restrictions; steep declines in export year and will significantly boost Nakhichevan’s earnings, tourism and remittances, all put at energy security. risk the livelihoods of billions all around the Since Azerbaijan has regained its world. Our global development trajectory has independence in 1991, Baku proved itself as a been hijacked. Each country is feeling the reliable energy partner for the West and pressure, yet, those that were already lagging established a sound and sustainable producer- behind, took the worst hit. Ongoing consumer dialogue by exporting its humanitarian crises have worsened, as a hydrocarbon resources to global energy markets. Baku continues to successfully

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cooperate with partners and support inter- from the Caspian and Central Asian regions to regional Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) energy European energy market. At the same time, projects. It is worth noting that the SGC is very the Biden administration has to focus on important for the EU as a new gas source and security and full economic integration of these supply route. Diversification of supply sources regions. The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and routes is key to EU energy security. Gas was a real challenge not only for the security supplies from Azerbaijan will reach South of the South Caucasus but also for the whole Eastern, Central, and Western Europe, and Caspian region. The forty-four-day Karabakh those regions have high gas dependence on a War of 2020 has finally resolved the long- few suppliers. As Shahmar Hajiyev, a leading lasting bloody conflict as Azerbaijan managed adviser at the Center of Analysis of to restore its territorial integrity. Now, during International Relations of Azerbaijan (AIR the post-conflict period, the US must play a Center), noted, “Azerbaijan’s position and the more active role and support the peace availability of its own energy resources have process and regional economic integration. enabled the country to become a regional energy and infrastructure hub for global energy markets”. VII. Azerbaijan and Afghanistan discuss boosting bilateral ties At the same time, the SGC opens up the opportunity for the export of new gas sources On December 21, President Ilham Aliyev met from Central Asia to the European gas market. National Security Adviser of Afghanistan In this regard, the EU and United States should Hamdullah Muhib and the head of the Afghan increase their support for linking the Trans- presidential administration, Muhammad Caspian Pipeline (TCP) with the SGC. The TCP Shakir Korgar, to discuss prospects for can become a complementary element of the boosting bilateral cooperation. At the meeting, SGC, and access to Turkmen gas sources could President Ilham Aliyev praised his Afghan play a significant role in EU energy security. counterpart for giving Azerbaijan political Currently, the main export routes for Turkmen support starting from the very first days of the gas are through China and Russia. China is the conflict and for Kabul's support for largest importer of natural gas from Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. The meeting Turkmenistan. For example, in 2019, pointed out achievements accomplished Turkmenistan exported to China over 30 bcm toward the development of bilateral ties and it (billion cubic meters) of natural gas via the was noted that there is good potential for Central Asia-China gas pipeline. However, expansion of cooperation between the two dependence on China as well as gas price countries. The special role that the Azerbaijani disputes with Russia are a major issue for and Afghan presidents' personal relations have Turkmenistan and it is in Ashgabat’s interest to played toward the development of relations diversify its export routes. Turkmenistan, the was highlighted at the meeting. It was also EU, and the United States should intensify pointed out that the fact that the Karabakh their dialogue and promote the TCP more conflict had ended was important toward actively. The incoming Biden administration ensuring security and stability in the region should strengthen its support for energy and that it created wide opportunities for security of its European allies and reaffirm its multilateral cooperation. The meeting also commitment for supporting natural gas supply discussed prospects for economic, security, investment, transport and other cooperation,

Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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the development of the Lapis Lazuli Eurasian Studies (CERES) in Canada, the Euro- international transport corridor and Gulf Information Center (EGIC) in Italy, the Azerbaijan's participation in peacekeeping Center for Contemporary Middle Eastern operations in Afghanistan. On December 21, Studies (CEMOC) in Argentina and the National Deputy Minister of Defence of the Republic of Institute for Strategic Studies in Ukraine. In Azerbaijan Karim Valiyev also received the 2020, 9 publications were successfully Afghan delegation led by the two officials to published in English, French, Russian and discuss the current state of and prospects for Azerbaijani languages, either directly or with the development of military cooperation the Center’s support. The list includes a report between the two countries. Chief of State by Professor Malcolm Shaw QC and Naomi Security Service of the Republic of Azerbaijan Hart on the war crimes and the international Ali Naghiyev also met the Afghan officials and legal responsibilities of Armenia as the other members of the delegation on belligerent occupier of Azerbaijani territories, December 21 to discuss expanding a monograph entitled "the City of Yerevan" by cooperation between the two countries' Nazim Mustafa, a report prepared with the security agencies toward stepping up stability suggestion of the Center by France-based and security in the region. COJEP International in French on the Armenian diaspora and lobby organizations in France and their assistance to Armenia and Nagorno- VIII. Year in Review Karabakh, a report prepared by the Center's Since 2019, the Center of Analysis of staff entitled “The Forgotten Victim of the International Relations (AIR Center) has Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict: Environmental worked to provide strategic insights and Impact of the Conflict”, as well as a report on comprehensive analysis of global and regional the use of mercenaries and foreign fighters by processes, simultaneously aiming at raising the Armenia against Azerbaijan in the Second international community’s awareness of Karabakh War. Azerbaijan’s foreign policy priorities, This year also saw the launch of the first issue particularly the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict of the Caucasus Strategic Perspectives (CSP), and regional security. In 2020, AIR Center the Center’s first in-house academic journal on accelerated and expanded its work in all of its foreign and security policy. The Center also major areas of focus. The global COVID-19 started publishing monthly bulletins in English, pandemic and the historic victory of Azerbaijan covering main directions of Azerbaijan’s in the 44-day Patriotic War, as well as foreign policy. The Center held 14 events and Azerbaijan’s Chairmanship of the Non-Aligned webinars, including an international Movement, transport and energy projects in conference entitled "IDP Women's Call for which Azerbaijan participates have been just a Justice: Addressing Their Needs in Peace and few of major topics covered by the Center in Security Agenda", a webinar entitled "Regional 2020. In terms of international cooperation, Geopolitical Polarization and Turkey- the Center signed 8 Memorandums of Azerbaijan Relations”, a webinar on the “Fate Understanding (MoU) with various of Multilateralism during COVID-19 Crisis”, an international research institutes and think international video conference on the “Global tanks in 2020, including with the Middle East Energy and International Political Risks” jointly Institute (MEI) in the US, University of with Russia's Valdai International Discussion Toronto’s Center for European, Russian, and

Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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Club, a webinar titled “The United States in the Gazeta”, “Vesti Kavkaza”, “Yeni Şafak”, Caspian Region: A Think-Tank Discussion” “Anadolu Agency”, among others. jointly with the Caspian Political Center, a In the year ahead, the AIR Center will continue webinar entitled "Development of Belarusian- to engage in thought leadership by providing Azerbaijani Relations in the Post-Pandemic essential insights and analysis into key trends Period” together with the Belarusian Institute and topics in the region, as well as leveraging for Strategic Studies. Over the past year, the its expertise and resources to expand Center’s experts delivered top-level analysis international community’s awareness of and outstanding research products. They also Azerbaijan’s foreign policy priorities. got published in “The National Interest”, “Jamestown Foundation”, “Euractiv”, “The London Post”, “New Eastern Europe”, “Geopolitical Monitor”, “Nezavisimaya

Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]