Analysis of Human Capital and Labour Market in the Coal & Heavy
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ANALYSIS OF HUMAN CAPITAL AND LABOUR MARKET IN THE COAL & HEAVY INDUSTRY SECTOR AND SHIFTING POTENTIAL TO ALTERNATIVE SECTORS IN HUNGARY FOCUSING ON BAZ COUNTY Beáta Siskáné Dr. Szilasi Geográfusokért Alapítvány Commissioned and edited by: NSC-FoE Hungary November, 2018 1 Tartalom 1. Labour market analysis..................................................................................................................... 3 1.1. The antecedents of the situation in BAZ county and its unique structure ..................................... 3 2. The characteristics of human capital and labour market between 2000-2018, in Hungary and in BAZ .......................................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1. Placing the BAZ county situation within the labour market of Hungary ..................................... 5 2.2. Labour market characteristics in BAZ .......................................................................................... 7 3. Labour management and main related problems in BAZ county ..................................................... 8 4. Conclusions, recommendations, the possibilities of re-allocation of labour .................................. 10 4.1 Recommendations ........................................................................................................................ 12 5. BAZ Strategic documents to rely on and Resources used .............................................................. 14 5.1 Key available Strategic documents, measures working in BAZ .................................................. 14 5.2 Resources used for this study (only in Hungarian)....................................................................... 15 The project is co-financed by the Governments of Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia through Visegrad Grants from International Visegrad Fund. The mission of the fund is to advance ideas for sustainable regional cooperation in Central Europe 2 1. Labour market analysis There is an increasing need during both planning and decision-making for exploring the current state of affairs regarding the demand and supply on the labour market. Even though there are current requirements in employment, most cases imply longer-term ones.1 The present study examines the characteristics of the labour market, focusing on Borsod-Abaúj- Zemplén (BAZ) county and the potential of human resources in mining and heavy industry, or whether this kind of employment group can be shifted to alternative sectors as well. Changing economic factors always contribute to the so called progressive and regressive sectors; that is, sectors that are characterized by a more differentiated and more dynamic growth than the average, or rather by regression.2 The change of regime in 1990 brought the most significant change in Hungary’s economic structure, as in the previous years and the ones preceding 1990 mines were continuously being closed and the heavy industry sectors gradually disappeared (or were liquidated). Problems related to the closures of mines have been present throughout Europe since the 1960s, and the changes in coal and ore mining have been particularly noticeable. The depletion of mines was among the reasons for the abolition of production as much as the changes in the economic judgment of the mined raw material, or the increase in the costs of production beyond an acceptable degree (Siskáné Szilasi, B. 2005). The abandoned mines, the former mining facilities, buildings and industrial sites have raised both environmental and socio-economic problems.3 1.1. The antecedents of the situation in BAZ county and its unique structure BAZ county has always had a unique role in the country’s economic structure, as its share of economic performance has been different from one sector to another. After the change of regime, this feature resulted to have a negative effect as the county’s coal mining and heavy industry potential dropped. One major consequence was the very high rate of unemployment (oftentimes over 20%), which required the transfer of the released labour to positions in alternative sectors. In spite of the decline, statistical data show that even until the 2000s, the two sectors managed to keep some of their power. The material prepared for crisis management4 shed light on the fact that in the 1990s BAZ county accounted for 31% of lignite and 13% of electricity production (the latter value had been 25% in 1985) of the domestic consumption. A similar regression was observed in crude iron and crude steel production, as in the nineties the county’s share was 28-28%, while in 1985 it had been 65%. 1 Belyó P.-Ékes I. 2008.: A munkaerő-piaci kereslet és kínálat. in: Lengyel J. et al: Munkaerő-piaci kutatások 2008, ÁFSZ jelentés 2 Belyó P.-Ékes I. 2008.: A munkaerő-piaci kereslet és kínálat. in: Lengyel J. et al: Munkaerő-piaci kutatások 2008, ÁFSZ jelentés 3 Siskáné Sz. B. et al. 2013: Észak-Magyarország felhagyott bányászati területeinek hasznosítási lehetőségei in: Észak-magyarországi Stratégiai Füzetek 4 Kalocsai Kornél 2001: Magyarország válságrégiói és menedzselésük jellemzői 3 This situation significantly transformed the employment structure and characteristics of the county. The solution of the situation was also difficult because a strong concentration dominated three important areas, having an effect on the characteristics of the workforce: the two sectors were characterized by a strong geographical concentration within Hungary; the companies were large in size and were also predominant in employment and production; it resulted in a one-sided industry structure, characterized by the predominance of heavy industry. The first signs of crisis appeared in the 1980s, which in case of the Borsod Coal Mines (Borsodi Szénbányák) were mainly due to the changed economic environment, the regression of economic growth and later the weakening of the central economic governance. Symptoms of the crisis were the following: decline in production – deterioration of quality; the appearance of “hidden unemployment”; inappropriate industrial background; lack of technological development. The worst economic, employment and social problems emerged in BAZ county due to the crisis in steel industry (heavy industry). While in the 1980s 35,000 people worked in metallurgy, nearly 25,000 people lost their jobs by 1995. Meanwhile, in other industries, the number of dismissals was around 50%, and was 40% even in the leading chemical industry.5 The most serious problem in BAZ county was that the labour dismissed from the mines that ceased operations faced difficulties in finding a new job and restarting their lives. The strategy to handle the problem was different in case of the Central-Eastern European countries before and after 1990. Prior to 1990, unemployment did not exist in its present form, therefore when the mines were closed, the repositioning and shifting of the released workforce had to be solved by all means. As gradual downsizing of staff was not usually the case, there was a sudden need to provide jobs for a large number of people with different qualifications. After 1990, the increase in the unemployment rate was significantly influenced by former mining or metallurgical workers, due to economic and political reasons unrelated to them (Siskáné Szilasi, B. 2005). Following the closure of mines and the decline in the number of factories in the heavy industry, former employees who did not leave their place of residence, as a result of the changed standard of living and quality of life, found themselves on the social periphery. The extent of the drop in employment is well demonstrated in the Central Statistical Office (Központi Statisztikai Hivatal, KSH) data, both in terms of mining and metallurgy (Figure 1). 5 Kalocsai Kornél 2001: Magyarország válságrégiói és menedzselésük jellemzői 4 Figure 1. Development of the number of employees in mining (blue) and metallurgy (red) in BAZ county between 1986 and 1999 (per person) Resource: KSH, based on Kalocsai K., edited by Siskáné Szilasi B. 2018 By the end of the 2000s, however, these problems were less present in the county, as workers in the affected age group had either retired or found their place in other sectors, or looked for new employment opportunities through internal migration. 2. The characteristics of human capital and labour market between 2000-2018, in Hungary and in BAZ Having outlined the relevant processes in the previous chapter, we are able to track and analyze the situation of the past and the present based on the data of the Central Statistical Office. The basic indicators that I use in describing processes are: the distribution of employees by sectors, territorial distribution, employment rate, activity rate, human capital ratio. Concepts are to be understood according to the methodology used by the Central Statistical Office to analyze labour market. 2.1. Placing the BAZ county situation within the labour market of Hungary According to the European Commission economic forecast for the autumn of 2017, the Hungarian economy is growing at a significant pace in 2017, driven by the consumption of households and the increasing investment activity. GDP growth for 2017 is estimated at 3.7 per cent, while 2018 is estimated at 3.6 per cent. There is prognosis for further decline in unemployment (4.2 per cent) and rising inflation (2.3 per cent in 2017, 2.6 in 2018). Employment in the construction industry sector has increased, in the industry