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PDF-File: Dmitri Trenin. the End of Eurasia The End of EURASIA: Russia on the Border Between Geopolitics and Globalization By Dmitri Trenin Carnegie Moscow Center Copyright © 2001 by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 1779 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington DC 20036 Tel. (202) 483-7600 Fax. (202) 483-1840 E-mail. [email protected] http://www.ceip.org All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writ- ing from the Carnegie Endowment or the Carnegie Moscow Center. Dmitri Trenin: The End of Eurasia: Russia on the Border Between Geopolitics and Globalization ISBN: 5-89520-048-6 This book was published within the framework of the Carnegie Mos- cow Center’s program “Foreign and Security Policy.” Financial sup- port for this program is provided by the Carnegie Corporation of New York and Starr Foundation. This book is distributed free of charge. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and its Moscow Center do not normally take institutional positions on public policy issues. The views and recommendations presented in this publica- tion do not necessarily represent the views of the Carnegie Endow- ment, its officers, staff, or trustees. Contents Acknowledgments ................................................................................................ 7 Introduction ........................................................................ 11 Part One: A FAREWELL TO THE EMPIRE CHAPTER I. The Spacial Dimension of Russian History ........................................................................39 Factors Behind the Territorial Enlargement ...................................... 41 Geographical Factors .............................................................. 41 Cultural Factors ....................................................................... 44 The Models of Expansion..................................................................... 46 The Collecting of Lands Model ............................................. 46 The Moving of Borders (Colonization) Model ................... 52 The Strategic Borders Model ................................................. 56 The Restoration Model ........................................................... 66 Le Monde Sans Frontières: a Revolutionary Aberration ................................................................................ 69 Patterns of Russia’s Territorial Contraction ...................................... 71 Implications of the “Spacial Syndrome” ........................................... 74 From Pax Russica to the Soviet Universe: The Psychological Impact .................................................................... 76 The Two Worlds Model: Boundaries of the (Soviet) Universe ....... 77 Costs of Territorial Expansion ............................................................. 79 Conclusion .............................................................................................. 81 CHAPTER II. The Break-Up of the USSR, A Break in Continuity.............................................................87 Why Did the USSR Break Up? ............................................................ 88 A Long Decline ...................................................................................... 95 A Phoenix Redux? What Role for the CIS? ....................................... 99 3 Why the Phoenix Won’t Fly This Time ............................................ 105 Geopolitical Concerns ........................................................................ 109 What Union with Belarus? .................................................................. 112 What’s in a Border? .............................................................................. 114 Double Border Strategy ....................................................................... 117 Ways and Means.................................................................................. 124 Border Service Reform ........................................................................ 125 Conclusion ............................................................................................ 129 Part Two: RUSSIA’S THREE FACADES CHAPTER III. The Western Facade ..............................145 The Traditional West ........................................................................... 146 The New West ...................................................................................... 152 The New Eastern Europe .................................................................... 160 Belarus, or North-Western Territory ? ................................ 160 Ukraine or “Little Russia”? .................................................. 163 Moldova: An Outpost Too Far ............................................ 170 Conclusion ............................................................................................ 172 CHAPTER IV. The Southern Tier ..................................177 The North Caucasus ........................................................................... 179 Chechnya ................................................................................ 180 The Rest of the North Caucasus ......................................... 188 The South Caucasus ............................................................................ 190 Georgia and Azerbaijan ....................................................... 190 The Caspian.......................................................................................... 195 Central Asia .......................................................................................... 196 Kazakhstan ............................................................................. 196 Intra-Central Asian Issues ................................................... 198 Tajikistan and Afghanistan .................................................. 200 China — Central Asia ........................................................... 203 CHAPTER V. The Far Eastern Backyard ......................208 The State of the Russian Far East ...................................................... 210 The Sino-Russian Border ..................................................................... 211 Southern Kurils or Northern Territories? ........................................ 220 4 Part Three: INTEGRATION CHAPTER VI. Domestic Boundaries and the Russian Question...................................................................237 Historical Evolution ............................................................................ 239 Sources of Regionalization ................................................................. 241 Factors of Stability and Instability .................................................... 246 The National Homelands ................................................................... 252 The Finn-Ugrian Republics are the Least Restive .......................... 258 The Pull of the West ............................................................................ 259 The “Russian Question” and the Chances of Ethnic Russian Separatism ............................................................................................ 260 Conclusion ............................................................................................ 269 CHAPTER VII. Fitting Russia In ...................................278 Russia-as-part-of-the-West: A False Dawn ...................................... 280 Russia-as-Eurasia Revisited ............................................................... 283 Russia and the World of Islam .......................................................... 287 The Far Eastern Europe ...................................................................... 290 Toward a Europe Without Dividing Lines? .................................... 292 Conclusion: AFTER EURASIA Options for Russia ............................................................................................. 313 Revisionist Russia? .............................................................................. 313 Russia’s Disintegration ....................................................................... 316 Creative Adjustment ........................................................................... 317 Options for Russia’s Neighbors ...................................................................... 326 Options for the West ......................................................................................... 328 Borders and Ethnicity ....................................................................................... 333 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Its Moscow Center ..................................................................................... 339 5 Acknowledgments his book is the result of over two years of my work at the Carnegie Moscow Center. I would not have been able to undertake this project with- out the encouragement and close support of the TCenter’s outgoing Director and my personal friend, Alan Rousso. As a serious student of Russia, he took on the great effort necessary to read the manuscript very closely, and provided me with a detailed, fair, and very honest critique of its content, for which I am very much indebted to him. Alan also ironed out many problems related to the publi- cation process, never an easy thing, to say the least. Throughout, he gave me steady and sound advice. I also received support and encouragement from the senior leadership of the Carnegie Endowment for Interna- tional Peace — its President, Jessica T.Mathews;
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