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China Refinery Operating Analysis Monthly Report Methodology

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China Refinery Operating Analysis Monthly Report Methodology Copyright © 2019 Reed Business Information Ltd. ICIS is a part of the RELX Group. China Refinery Operating Analysis Monthly Report Methodology 11 January 2019 Expiry date of this methodology document: 16 March 2021 Introduction to ICIS China Refinery Operating Analysis Monthly Report (CROAM) The ICIS China Refinery Operating Analysis Monthly Report (CROAM) updates the development of major refineries under China’s two state-run oil refiners, namely Sinopec and PetroChina. Refineries under CNOOC, Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum and China Northern Industries Group (China Zhenhua Oil) as well as Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical are also included in the report. The report contains updates on turnaround schedules, throughput loss, throughput plans, operating rates and refining margins of the country’s major refineries, as well as refinery expansion plans on crude distillation units and secondary refining units. The report also contains the development of China’s strategic petroleum reserves and commercial reserves of crude oil and distillates products. Coverage for some data goes back as far as 2012 and a comprehensive history database is available for this report. CROAM is published on 10th working day of each month in China as an Excel file. The early history database is available as an additional service. Definition of major refiners Major refiners include refineries under state-owned companies that focus on oil refining as a main business. This include refiners under PetroChina, Sinopec, China Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC), Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum and China Northern Industries Group (China Zhenhua Oil) as well as Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical. Primary data tables in CROAM Refinery turnaround schedule of major refiners This contains maintenance schedules of 82 major state-run refineries from 2012-2018. Both scheduled and unplanned maintenance are included. Other information includes the name and location of the refinery, refining units under maintenance, shutdown capacity, products affected and duration of the turnaround. Crude throughput loss of major refiners This table updates and forecasts crude throughput loss of 82 major state-run refineries for each month during the current year as a result of turnarounds. Throughput loss impacted by maintenance in the previous two years is also included. Monthly crude throughput loss = refining capacity in barrels per day * duration of maintenance in the month. 2 Monthly crude throughput plans of major refiners This is based on ICIS monthly research and estimates on crude throughput plans for each coming month by refineries under Sinopec and PetroChina. Throughput targets for CNOOC, Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum Group, Sinochem Quanzhou and other state- run companies are also included. Throughput plans by region are also reported, with month-on-month comparison. Refinery capacity expansions of major refiners ICIS covers updates on the expansion plans of major refineries for their crude distillation units and secondary refining units. This includes information such as expansion schedules, changes in capacity, and possible crude sources such as supplying country and crude spec. Operating rate of major refiners This is based on ICIS research on 46 key major refiners, with annual topping capacities totalling 491m tonnes/year. These refiners’ aggregated CDU capacity normally amounts to about 83% of the total CDU capacity in the country. The research is done every other Thursday. CDU operating rate = daily throughput / (total annual CDU capacity/350) Refining margins of major refiners This is based on ICIS calculation of refining margins of major refiners. ICIS calculates the refining margins of major refiners in north and south China, which process domestic Daqing crude and Oman crude, respectively. The former is typical for PetroChina and the latter is typical for Sinopec. ICIS calculates the refining margins based on two scenarios: one based on ex-refinery prices of refined products and the other based on wholesale prices of refined products. ICIS also takes into account other costs, including feedstock logistics cost, processing cost and consumption tax on oil products. The research is done every other Wednesday of the month, normally in the middle and at the end of each month. Main refined products include gasoline, gasoil, kerosene, LPG, naphtha, petcoke, bitumen, dry gas, wax and base oils. Refining margin = products sales income – feedstock cost – processing cost Product sales income = sum (main products output ratio * ICIS assessment or official ex-refinery settlement prices) For feedstock cost, cost of Daqing crude = PetroChina’s Daqing crude settlement price (M) + pipeline freight 3 Cost of imported Oman crude (mark to market) = ICIS China Oman CFR China assessment (M-1) Monthly update on China’s strategic petroleum reserves and commercial reserves This covers monthly updates on Phase II and Phase III of China’s strategic petroleum reserves (SPR), including layout, location, scale of operations and operation schedules. Information about the Phase I SPR bases, which have finished oil-filling, is also included. ICIS updates the strategic and commercial inventories of crude oil in inventory days (number of days), which is based on China’s daily crude net import volume in 2016. Inventory (in terms of number of days) is derived as follows: 1. (Estimated SPR) + (Commercial inventory announced by Xinhua News Agency)] divided by (China’s daily crude oil import demand). 2. (China’s daily crude oil import demand) is derived by this = (previous year’s annual import volumes) divided by (360 days). 3. Within a calendar year, the month-on-month comparison gives a good indication of whether inventory has risen or fallen from the previous month, in terms of number of days, and in terms of tonnes, because the basis (previous year’s import volume) applied is constant. 4. However, the same is not applicable in a year-to-year comparison. For example, October 2015 inventory was derived using the “2014 annual import volumes,” and the October 2016 inventory was derived using the “2015 annual import volumes.” Note: annual import volumes in 2015 were significantly higher compared with 2014. 5. A comparison of the inventory (expressed in the number of days) for the same month in different years, is a good indication of the pace of China’s inventory growth compared with the pace of its import growth. For example, when comparing inventory (in number of days) for October 2015 and October 2016: - If inventories in October 2016 were lower than October 2015, this means that China’s inventory growth was lagging behind its import growth; - If October 2016 inventories were the same as October 2015, this means that China’s inventory was growing at the same pace as its import growth; 4 - If October 2016 was higher than October 2015, China’s inventory growth was proceeding at a much faster pace than its import growth. Similarly, ICIS updates the commercial inventories of distillates (within state-owned enterprise systems) in inventory days (number of days), which is based on China’s daily distillates net import volume in 2016. Inventory (in terms of number of days) is derived as follows: 1. [(Estimated distillate inventory by Xinhua News Agency)] divided by (China’s daily distillates import demand). 2. (China’s daily distillates import demand) is derived by (previous year’s annual import volumes) divided by (360 days). 3. Within a calendar year, the month-on-month comparison gives a good indication of whether inventory has risen or fallen from the previous month, in terms of the number of days, and in terms of tonnes, because the basis (previous year’s import volume) applied is constant. 4. However, the same is not applicable in a year-to-year comparison. Currency conversions Exchange rates are used for conversion between different currencies. ICIS does not formulate exchange rates, and instead adopts the exchange rates from the XE(www.xe.com) ， which typically represent mid-market rates at 16:00 UTC. The exchange rates published by ICIS are for reference only, and may be different from the rates provided by local banks or other financial institutions. Other principles and guidelines Changes to methodology All market evolve, and ICIS ensures its methodologies for market-reporting evolve in line with the markets. ICIS therefore regularly conducts internal reviews of the appropriateness of its methodologies. 5 Draft changes are then made public and feedback requested from industry participants, with a minimum two-week notice period, except where a force majeure event (natural disaster, war, bankruptcy of a trading exchange etc.) makes necessary a shorter notice period. ICIS is committed to reviewing all comments on proposed methodology changes, but in some cases may find it necessary to alter its methodologies against the wishes of some market participants. Consistency ICIS achieves consistency among its assessors in exercising their judgment by requiring all assessors to understand and follow this detailed methodology as well as the company’s Editorial Standards document. In addition, ICIS employees are required to complete standard training before undertaking the work of a market reporter. Every reporter’s work is peer-reviewed daily and spot-checked by senior management. Adherence to these processes is documented at every stage. Data standards ICIS has a public Data Standards Policy which covers the type and quality of information gathered from market participants. The following principles relate to ICIS gas market assessments
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