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۹۹۰۴۰۲-RPEE۹۹۱۲-Total-خلاصه گزارش چین.Pdf شناخت پويايي بازارهاي نفت و گاز؛ تحوﻻت اقتصادي، ژئوپلتيكي و ديپلماسي نفت و گاز تحوﻻت اقتصادي، ژئوپلت يكي و ديپلماسي نفت – و گاز "چين" خﻻصه مدیریتی كد گزارش: RPTS9911 iies.mop.ir هب انم خدا عنوان گزارش: شناخت پويايي بازارهاي نفت و گاز؛ تحوﻻت اقتصادي، ژئوپلتيكي و ديپلماسي نفت و گاز تحوﻻت اقتصاد ي، ژئوپلتيكي و ديپلماس ي نفت و گاز چين خﻻصه مدیریتی موسسه مط العات بينالمللي انرژي )وابسته به وزارت نفت ( جمهوری خلق چین با بیش از یک میلیارد و 435 میلیون ن فر، پرجمع یتترین کشور دنیاست. وسعت چین د ر حدود ۹ میلیون و 561 هزار کیلومتر مربع است و این کشور پس از روسی ه، کانادا و آمریکا چهارمین کشور پهناور دنیاست. پایتخت کشور، پ کن در شرق چین ا ست. جمهوری خلق چین از ۲۲ استان، 5 منطقه خودمختار، 4 شهر با مدیریت مستقیم)پکن، تیانجین، شانگهای و چونگکینگ( و۲ منطقه ا داری ویژه خودمختارِ هن گکنگ و م اکائو تشکیل شده است. 1-اسناد باﻻدستی و قوانین انرژی گروه پیشرو حزب کمونیست در امور مالی و اقتصادی، مسئولیت تصمیمات استراتژ یک اقتصادی را تحت رهبر ی رئیسجمهور چین، شی جینپینگ بر عهده دارد. سیاستهای کلی دی انرژی بخشی از دستور کار این گروه است . چنانکه در جدول زیر دیده میشود، سیزدهمین برنامه پنجساله چین1 که سال ۲016 منتشر شد، محور اصلی سیاستهای انرژی چین تا سال ۲0۲0 است. بخش عمد های از استراتژ یهای مرتبط با بخش انرژی چین از بطن سیزدهمین برنامه 5 ساله چین استخراج شده و متناسب با بخش مدنظر، ادارات و نهادهای دولتی متولی آن برنام هها مشخص شده اس ت. روند تدوی ن سیزدهمین برنامه توسعه ا قتصادی در بخش انرژی، نحوه هماهن گی بی ن برنام ههای استانی و برنامه م لی را تشری ح کرده اس ت. الگوهای صنعتی مربوط به انرژ ی در برنامه پنجساله سیزده م با ه دف کاهش بی شتر تولید دیاکسید کربن، اصﻻح شده و بر سرمای هگذاری در انرژ یهای تج دی دپ ذیر تاکید شده 1 ( (THE 13TH FIVE-YEAR PLAN FOR ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (2016-2020), 2016) iies.mop.ir 2 موسسه مط العات بينالمللي انرژي )وابسته به وزارت نفت ( است2. سرمای هگذاری وتولید انرژی برق آبی ب هویژ ه در جنوب غربی چی ن، انرژی بادی و سرمای هگذاری انرژ ی فتوولتائیک افزایش خواهند یافت. اما تأکی د اصلی روی سرمایهگذاری در بخش انرژی هست های است )ظرفیت نصب نیروگا ه هست های تا سال ۲0۲0 باید به 58 میل ی ون کیلوو ات برسد( و کاهش م صرف ز غالسنگ تعقیب شو د.3اهداف دیگر به سرمای هگذاری بی شتر در فناور ی "شبکه هوشمن د" و همچنی ن پی شرفت فناور ی پاﻻیش نفت و ب هر وزرسانی پاﻻیشگاههای ق دیم ی " تیپات4" معطوف شده اس ت. جالب آن که نمود موفقیت عموم این برنام هها در آمار منتشرشده از سوی بیپی مشخص و نمایان است و بسیاری از این اهداف، محقق شدهاند که در فصل بررسی وضعیت انرژی چین بررسی شدهان د. جدول مهمترین اسناد باﻻدستی مرتبط با سیاستگذاری انرژی چین ردی ف استراتژی و طر حهای انرژ ی تاریخ صدو ر اداره دولت ی 1 برنامه اقدام استراتژ ی ک برای توسعه انرژی )Jun. 7, 2014 ) 2014- 20 شورای دول ت کمیسیون ملی اصﻻحات و توسعه 2 برنامه اقدام برای انقﻻب و نوآوری در فناوری انرژی )Apr. 7, 2016 ) 2030- 2016 - اداره ملی انرژ ی کمیسیون ملی اصﻻحات و Jun. 12, 3 برنامه اقدام ساخت داخل تجه یزا ت انرژی 202 توسع ه - وزارت صنعت و فناوری 2016 اطﻻعا ت - اداره ملی انرژ ی 4 س یزده م ی ن برنامه 5ساله نوآوری علوم و فناوری )Jul. 28, 2016 ) 2020- 2016 شورای دول ت کمیسیون ملی اصﻻحات و توسعه 5 س یزده م ی ن برنامه 5ساله توسعه انرژی برق )Nov. 7, 2016 ) 2020- 2016 - اداره ملی انرژ ی Nov. 16, 6 س یزده م ی ن برنامه 5ساله توسعه انرژی بادی )2016 -2020 ( اداره ملی انرژ ی 2016 7 س یزده م ی ن برنامه 5ساله توسعه انرژی خورشیدی )Dec. 8, 2016 ) 2020- 2016 اداره ملی انرژ ی Dec. 10, 8 س یزده م ی ن برنامه 5ساله توسعه انرژ یهای تجدیدپذیر )2016 -2020 ( اداره ملی انرژ ی 2016 برنامه کاری جامع در زم ین ه حفاظت از انرژی و کاهش انتشار در خﻻل س یزده م ی ن ,Dec. 20 9 شورای دول ت برنامه 5 ساله )2016 2020- ( 2016 ,Dec. 22 کمیسیون ملی اصﻻحات و توسعه 10 س یزده م ی ن برنامه 5ساله توسعه صنعت زغا لسنگ )2016 2020- ( 2016 - اداره ملی انرژ ی Dec. 24, 11 س یزده م ی ن برنامه 5ساله توسعه صنعت نفت )2016 -2020 ( کمیسیون ملی اصﻻحات و توسع ه 2016 (Accelerating Innovation in China’s Solar, Wind and Energy Storage SectorS, 2018) ۲ 3 (China’s 13th Five-Year Plan Opportunities for Finnish Companies, 2016) 4 Teapot iies.mop.ir 3 موسسه مط العات بينالمللي انرژي )وابسته به وزارت نفت ( ردی ف استراتژی و طر حهای انرژ ی تاریخ صدو ر اداره دولت ی Dec. 24, 12 س یزده م ی ن برنامه 5ساله توسعه صنعت گاز طبیعی )2016 -2020 ( کمیسیون ملی اصﻻحات و توسع ه 2016 ,Dec. 26 کمیسیون ملی اصﻻحات و توسعه 13 س یزده م ی ن برنامه 5ساله توسعه انرژی )2016 2020- ( 2016 - اداره ملی انرژ ی Dec. 30, 14 س یزده م ی ن برنامه 5ساله نوآوری فناوری انرژی )2016 -2020 ( اداره ملی انرژ ی 2016 2-جریان انرژی کشور چین در سال ۲018، حدود ۲3.6 درصد از انرژی اولیه جهان در چین مصرف شده است که آمار عجیب و قابلتوجهی است. مصرف انرژی اولیه در چین در این سال نسبت به سال ۲017، نزدیک به 4.3 درصد رشد داشته اس ت. چنانکه در .Error! Reference source not found شکل زیر مشخص است، چین در سال ۲018 نسبت به سال ۲017 در تمام ح املهای انرژی با افزایش میزان مصرف روب هرو بوده است و در همه بخشها افزایش رشد داشته اس ت. در سهم منابع انرژی در سبد مصرفی نیز همه ح املها جز ز غالسنگ و هیدروالکتریسیته با افزایش روبه رو بوده ان د. فقط سهم زغالسنگ از سبد مصرفی حدود ۲ درصد و سهم هیدروالکتریسیته حدود هشتصدم درصد کاهش داشت هان د. میزان افزایش مصرف منابع انرژی چین در سال 2018– منبع: استخراج نگارنده از ,BP STATISTICAL REVIEW OF WORLD ENERGY)2019( زغال سنگ در سال ۲018، در میان حاملهای انرژی مصرفی در چین، زغالسنگ باﻻترین سهم را با نسبت 58.۲ درصد در اختیار دارد. سهم ز غالسنگ در سال ۲017، بیش از 60.۲ درصد بوده است. درواقع، روند رو به کاهش سهم iies.mop.ir 4 موسسه مط العات بينالمللي انرژي )وابسته به وزارت نفت ( زغالسنگ در سبد مصرفی چین همچنان ادامه دار د. چین ب هتنهایی 50.5 درصد زغالسنگ دنیا را مصرف م یکند و آلودگی بیش از حد ابرشهرهای چین و تولید بیش از اندازه دیاکسید کربن توسط چین اصﻻ مساله عجیبی نیست. چین بزرگترین تولیدکننده ز غالسنگ دنیا هم هست و در سال ۲018 حدود 46.7 درصد از زغالسنگ دنیا در این کشور تولید شده ا ست. باوجود حجم باﻻی تولید، چین امروز واردکننده خالص زغالسنگ است. چین از سال ۲008 به واردکننده زغالسنگ تبدیل شد و این روند همچنان ادامه داشته است. سیاست دولت، اما کاهش مصرف زغالسنگ و جایگزینی آن با سایر منابع انرژی است. نفت خ ام چین که در ابتدای دهه ۹0 پنجمین تولیدکننده نفت دنیا بود، در سال ۲018 حدود 13.5 درصد مصرف دنیا را به نام خود ثبت کرده است. این کشور که از سال 1۹۹3 به واردکننده خالص نفت خام تبدیل شده، امروز فقط 4 درصد تولید نفت دنیا را در اختیار دارد و در رده هفتمین کشورهای تولیدکننده نفت جای گرفته است. چین در سال ۲018 حدود 3 میلیون و 800 هزار بشکه نفت در روز تولید کرده است که پ ایینترین میزان تولید طی ده سال گذشته است و نسبت به سال ۲017 نیز با افت حدود 50 هزار بشک های روبه رو بوده اس ت. در سال ۲018 مصرف نفت خام در چین 13 میلیون و 5۲5 هزار بشکه بوده که اختﻻف ۹ میلیون و 7۲7 هزار بشک های میان تولید و مصرف، از طریق واردات تأمین شده است که در شکل زیر نشان داده شده است. درواقع، چین حدود 7۲ درصد نفت خام موردنیاز خود را از طریق واردات تأمین کرده اس ت. مصرف نفت چین در سال ۲018 نسبت به سال ۲017 حدود 6۲5 هزار بشکه و نسبت به ده سال پیش، بیش از 5 میلیون و 600 هزار بشکه افزایش داشته است. چین یکونیم درصد ذخایر اثباتشده نفت دنیا را در اختیار دار د. نفت همچنان یکی از مورد توج هترین حاملهای انرژی برای چین است و روند رو به رشدی هم در میزان مصرف و هم در سهمش از حاملهای انرژی دارد. میزان مصرف نفت در سال ۲018 نسبت به سال ۲017 حدود 5 درصد افزایش داشته است و سهمش از حاملهای انرژی مصرفی در چین از 1۹.46 در سال ۲017 به 1۹.5۹ در سال ۲018 افزایش یافته اس ت. iies.mop.ir 5 موسسه مط العات بينالمللي انرژي )وابسته به وزارت نفت ( میزان واردات نفت خام چین– منبع: استخراج نگارنده از ,BP STATISTICAL REVIEW OF WORLD ENERGY)2019( چین از سال ۲006 به واردات الانجی اقدام کرد و از سال ۲00۹ نیز واردات گاز طبیعی از ترکمنستان و قزاقستان را آغاز کر د. طی دهه اخیر، رشد مصرف و واردات گاز طبیعی در چین بسیار محسوس و ویژه بوده است. چین حدود 3.1 درصد ذخایر اثباتشده گاز دنیا را در اختیار دارد و طی دهه اخیر، میزان تولیدش حدود دوبرابر شده است. چین در سال ۲018 حدود 161.5 میلیارد مترمکعب گاز تولید کرده است که نسبت به سال ۲017، بیش از 1۲ میلیارد مترمکعب افزایش تولید را ثبت کرده است.
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