Trends in Asian National Oil Company Investment Abroad: an Update

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Trends in Asian National Oil Company Investment Abroad: an Update Trends in Asian National Oil Company Investment Abroad: An update A Working Paper by Glada Lahn November 2007 Trends in National Oil Company Investment Abroad: An update, Chatham House Working Paper: November 2007. © Royal Institute of International Affairs 2007 This material is offered free of charge for personal and non-commercial use, provided the source is acknowledged. For commercial or any other use, prior written permission must be obtained from the Royal Institute of International Affairs. In no case may this material be altered, sold or rented. Chatham House (the Royal Institute of International Affairs) is an independent body which promotes the rigorous study of international questions and does not express opinion of its own. The opinions expressed in this publication are the responsibility of the authors. Chatham House, 10 St James’s Square, London, SW1Y 4LE T: +44 (0) 20 7957 5700 F: +44 (0) 20 7957 5710 www.chathamhouse.org.uk Charity Registration No. 208 223 Glada Lahn is Junior Research Fellow at the Energy, Environment and Development Programme at Chatham House. She specialises in issues of oil sector governance and related development in oil and gas producing countries. The author is grateful to Juliet Kerr for her research assistance and to colleagues and associates involved in the Asian National Oil Company Investments Abroad project. 2 Trends in National Oil Company Investment Abroad: An update, Chatham House Working Paper: November 2007. Table of contents Introduction........................................................................................................... 5 Part I: Investment developments ........................................................................... 6 Investment hot spots....................................................................................................... 6 Central Asia ...................................................................................................................... 6 Myanmar ........................................................................................................................... 7 Acquiring private companies ......................................................................................... 8 Asian investor – host producer relations...................................................................... 9 Assertive producers ........................................................................................................ 9 Vulnerability to local conflict............................................................................................ 9 Workers welfare and company practice ....................................................................... 10 Corporate responsibility schemes ................................................................................ 11 NOC-NOC cooperation................................................................................................. 11 Opportunities for western companies in China.......................................................... 12 Western producers ........................................................................................................ 12 Part II: International approaches to Asian demand and investment and Asian Responses........................................................................................................... 13 International responses to Asian energy needs ............................................... 13 Energy cooperation....................................................................................................... 13 Ethical concerns ............................................................................................................ 14 Iran sanctions ............................................................................................................... 14 Darfur campaigns ......................................................................................................... 14 Chinese engagement.................................................................................................... 14 International reconciliation ............................................................................................ 15 Appendix 1: ANOC data updated .......................................................................... 17 a) Company Financials 2005-2006 ....................................................................... 17 b) ANOC’s Oil and Natural Gas Production and Reserve Values 2006................ 18 Appendix 2: Recent ANOC investments abroad.................................................. 19 3 Trends in National Oil Company Investment Abroad: An update, Chatham House Working Paper: November 2007. Note This working paper is the result of desk based research conducted as part of a major Chatham House project on Asian National Oil Company Investments Abroad: Industry trends and impacts on development . The author has tried to provide accurate data but would be grateful for corrections of errors and omissions 4 Trends in National Oil Company Investment Abroad: An update, Chatham House Working Paper: November 2007. Introduction In March, we published a study on the drivers for Asian national oil company (ANOC) global expansion and emerging investment trends. 1 This paper provides a short update on the major acquisitions and company and political developments that have taken place in the interim. Gaining direct access to oil and gas resources abroad features - to varying degrees of priority - in the energy policies of China, India, Japan, Malaysia and South Korea. It is also part of an international surge to expand trade and diplomatic links in developing markets and, particularly in the cases of China and India, to increase international political leverage. This agenda has entailed strong government support for NOC activities abroad. In the West, seemingly extravagant bids for oil and gas acreage have provoked fears of unfair competition and concerns that established standards of corporate governance will be threatened. At best, the media have portrayed this trend as an opportunity for developing producer countries to break their dependence on the West, at worst, as a resource grab presaging a new era of Eastern imperialism and energy mercantilism. 2 Our project seeks to monitor the trends, involve Asian expertise and provide an analytical assessment of their current and potential impact on development, competition and geopolitical relations. Our initial study concluded that some fears were groundless. In terms of foreign equity oil production, ANOC’s effect on the world oil market is minimal (about 2% of world production in 2005-6) and unlikely to challenge supplies to other consuming countries in the foreseeable future. There have been few significant producing assets won in competition with private oil companies to date (although the future production from exploratory acreage and the acquisition of producing company assets could change this) and high bids reflect the premium for latecomers. Above all, our paper highlighted the increasingly corporate drive behind the investment strategies of these NOCs and thus the need to better understand company development in relation to international and host country responses, as well as political direction from shareholder governments. The first part of this update covers looks at areas that have dominated investment news and where several Asian oil companies are active, and then at ANOC relations with host countries and other oil companies. The second part considers the ongoing dialogue between the international community and the Asian consumer countries regarding energy demand and investment choices. 1 See the Chatham House Briefing Paper: ‘Oil for Asia’ and the Working Paper: ‘Trends in Asian national oil company investment abroad’, Chatham House, March, 2007. 2 With 90% of world oil reserves under the control of state-owned and not market driven companies, analysts often express concern that bilateral long-term supply contracts will undermine the market. See for example, S. Miller. ‘Will "Private" Oil Sink the NYMEX?’, an investment U White Paper Report, Crude Oil Forecast, May 22, 2007. 5 Trends in National Oil Company Investment Abroad: An update, Chatham House Working Paper: November 2007. Part I: Investment developments Company news in brief * Chinese NOCs increased their activities on several fronts, most significantly in Turkmenistan and the Canadian oil sands. Negotiations over the Yadavaran oil field (Sinopec) and the South Pars gas field (CNPC) in Iran continued but with no conclusion to date. In early September 2007, PetroChina secured significant Australian LNG supply deals and CNOOC won an exploration contract in offshore Western Australia. Indian NOCs won access to several offshore exploration blocks in Libya, Columbia and Myanmar (ONGC Videsh Ltd) and entered Turkmenistan for the first time (ONGC Mittal Energy Ltd (OMEL)). Indian private companies increased their assets abroad. These included Mittal Investments in Kazakhstan (Apr 07) and Essar in Nigeria (May 07). Malaysian NOC, PETRONAS finalised a gas block development deal with the Ethiopian government. The company’s annual report recorded a marked increase in the share of total profits from international ventures for FY07. In June, the Korean Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy announced a surge in investments on foreign oil and gas development over the coming year. Two months later, Korean National Oil Company (KNOC) made its first entry into
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