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Shina-ES-USA Eng Web.Pdf “WOLF WARRIOR” AND UKRAINE Risks of Cooperation with China for Relations with the EU, the USA, and NATO New Europe Center 2020 Published within the framework of the Think Tank Development Initiative for Ukraine carried out by the International Renaissance Foundation in partnership with the Open Society Initiative for Europe (OSIFE) with the financial support of the Embassy of Sweden in Ukraine. The publication expresses the views and opinions of the authors and does not necessarily reflect those of the Embassy of Sweden in Ukraine, the International Renaissance Foundation and the Open Society Initiative for Europe (OSIFE). Concept: Alyona Getmanchuk Authors: Sergiy Solodkyy (section “Risks of Cooperation with China for Relations with the EU“) Anna Medvedeva (section “Risks of Cooperation with China for Relations with the US”), Marianna Fakhurdinova (section “Risks of Cooperation with China for Relations with NATO”) Head of the research Leonid Litra group The New Europe Center expresses its gratitude to Viktor Konstantynov, Associate Professor of the Department of International Relations and Foreign Policy, Institute of International Relations, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv; Daria Haidai, Adviser to the Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine as well as other experts who wished to remain anonymous. CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 4 1. GENERAL CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................... 6 2. ANALYSIS OF THE RISKS OF COOPERATION WITH CHINA FOR RELATIONS WITH THE EU ............................................. 9 2.1. EU’s policy towards the PRC ……………………………………………… 9 2.2. The challenges the PRC poses to the EU and the ways the EU addresses them ……………………………………………………………………… 12 3. RISKS OF COOPERATION WITH CHINA FOR RELATIONS WITH THE USA ........................................................................ 21 3.1. US policy towards the PRC ……………………………………………… 23 3.2. The challenges the PRC poses to the US and the ways the EU addresses them ……………………………………………………………………… 24 4. RISKS OF COOPERATION WITH CHINA FOR RELATIONS WITH NATO ............................................................................... 33 4.1. NATO’s policy towards the PRC ………………………………………… 33 4.2. The challenges the PRC poses to NATO ……………………………… 35 4.3. The ways NATO addresses challenges created by the PRC…… 38 4 “WOLF WARRIOR” AND UKRAINE Risks of Cooperation with China for Relations with the EU, the USA, and NATO INTRODUCTION “Wolf warrior diplomacy” is a Initiative [...] Asia traditionally both metaphorical phrase used to describe thinks centuries ahead and considers recent approaches of the People’s its past. It is also time for Ukraine to Republic of China in international develop a strategy a few steps ahead. relations. The Wolf Warrior is a It is important to remember that the character in a popular Chinese coronavirus will retreat sooner or later, blockbuster sometimes compared but its consequences will linger.” — to American Rambo. “Wolf warrior these words belong to the head of the diplomacy” is a more self-confident, foreign ministry as presented in his offensive diplomacy, accompanied with blog during the first weeks after the a more active defense of one’s own introduction of quarantine measures in interests. It marks a departure from the Ukraine, when the preparation of the conservative, cautious and watchful fundamental document started1. foreign policy that has been intrinsic to Beijing until recently. Ukraine, which Ukraine’s development of an Asian aims to develop relations with Asia strategy has aroused interest not only (in no small part with China), must among our partners in Asia but also be aware of the potential and already among partners in the EU and NATO. As existing risks it may face. European and Euro-Atlantic integration remains the key priority of Ukraine’s According to Foreign Minister Dmytro foreign policy, with the Asian strategy Kuleba, one of the important directions seen as a complementary direction, of Ukraine’s foreign policy should be the New Europe Center has analyzed the development of cooperation with the main risks of preparing and Asian countries. As soon as he headed implementing a strategy for Ukraine’s the department in the early spring of European and Euro-Atlantic aspirations 2020, he almost immediately stated (the emphasis was put on cooperation the need to develop an appropriate with China, as this country is currently “pragmatic strategy.” “Once upon a time, in the focus of attention of major global a famous way from the Vikings to the actors). Greeks run across Ukraine. Today we work together with China to become an integral part of their Belt and Road 1 Dmytro Kuleba, «Asian cuisine in Kyiv». Blog for Evropeyska pravda, 6 Apr 2020. https://blogs. pravda.com.ua/authors/kuleba/5e8adfffa2521/ Introduction 5 The document consists of four parts: 1 General conclusions. Analysis of the risks of cooperation with China for 2 relations with the EU. Analysis of the risks of cooperation with China for 3 relations with the USA. Analysis of the risks of cooperation with China for 4 relations with NATO. Each single section on the EU, the USA and NATO aims to explore the current stage of relations between China and the mentioned actors, the challenges in these relations and ways of responding to them. The main question that analysts at the New Europe Center sought to answer was how certain challenges, for instance, in cooperation between China and the EU can affect the cooperation between Beijing and Kyiv. 6 “WOLF WARRIOR” AND UKRAINE Risks of Cooperation with China for Relations with the EU, the USA, and NATO 1. GENERAL CONCLUSIONS Euro-Atlantic partners are Investments under a priority. Assigning a microscope. The EU and the special place in Ukraine’s US are especially wary of foreign policy to relations Chinese global investments, believing with Asia is of interest to the strategic that it could pose in particular security partners, the United States and the threats. It should be remembered that European Union. Kyiv will face the task by making other countries economically of correctly communicating the fact of dependent, China can advance its own the preparation and implementation of political interests abroad. Closer the Asian strategy by showing that cooperation with China could signal to foreign policy reorientation is not the the US and our partners in the EU that case. Cooperation with Asia is Beijing will potentially influence complementary to, and not a substitute Ukraine. for, European and Euro-Atlantic integration. European-style investment screening should be one of the options to respond to the relevant risks, especially in the field of defense, technology and Trade without dependence. strategic infrastructure. Therefore, it Among all the countries, is better for Ukraine to adhere to the China now ranks first in terms memorandum of cooperation with of trade turnover with Ukraine (in Ericsson on the development of 5G general, primacy in trade still belongs in Ukrainian territory and not to give to the EU), a trend which may well preference to Huawei (both for security sustain in the future. In general, the EU reasons and due to the possible acute or the US have no particular reaction of Ukraine’s essential partners). reservations about trade cooperation The issue of Motor Sich will continue but seek to avoid dependence from to remain critically high on the agenda China on individual trade categories. It of Ukrainian-American relations and cannot be ruled out that over time — under US influence — may become trade with China will emerge on the more significant in Ukraine-NATO agenda of Ukraine’s negotiations with cooperation. the EU or the United States. Absence of trade dependence is also in Ukraine’s interest, as trade flexibility may protect the country in the future from China’s Traps of infrastructure use of Ukrainian products in the projects. Ukraine is interested Chinese market as a leverage against in transport corridors to Asia Ukraine in other, not necessarily bypassing Russia, thus seeing China’s trade-related, issues (as is the case with Belt and Road initiative as potentially Australia). useful. However, one should be cautious 1. General conclusions 7 about Chinese loans for infrastructure important for Ukraine to preserve EU projects of dubious value and benefit support in the international arena, ratio. There are too many examples of which consists in responding to Asian countries and even the Balkans violations of Ukrainian citizens’ rights in (Montenegro) that are heavily indebted the Russian-occupied territories. At the to China. Although Chinese loans are same time, in its communication with offered unconditionally and are China, Ukraine could emphasize a attractive to political leaders, they have rules-based international order. Such an already proved to be a financial trap in approach would be completely in line many countries, including Sri Lanka2, with the interests of Ukraine, which Kenya3, Montenegro, Mongolia and sees a potential in mutually beneficial Tajikistan4. cooperation with China and also hopes for support within international The infrastructure built on Chinese organizations - first of all, in loans does not receive enough income counteracting the Russian aggression at to repay the loan, with the property the UN level. наш інтерес», — зазначають у владних subsequently
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