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Change Comes to Japan? Internationale Politikanalyse International Policy Analysis Andrew DeWit »Change« Comes to Japan? This report assesses the background to Japan’s August 30 general elec- tion, as well as the main policy options on the new government’s agenda. The report describes how the Liberal Democratic Party’s loss was rooted in poor economic management and the effects of socioeconomic change on its electoral base. Particularly in this latter respect, Japan is already a changed country. Moreover, the Democratic Party of Japan is embarked on reforming the decision-making institutions that have underlain policy-making throughout most of the post-war era. It has committed itself to reshaping large swaths of fiscal, energy, foreign, and other policy approaches. This report is an in- depth analysis of these recent developments. OCTOBER 2009 Ausgewählte Veröffentlichungen des Referats „InternationaleInternationale Politikanalyse“ Politikanalyse International Policy Analysis Unit Arbeitskreis Europa Thorsten Benner, Stefanie Flechtner (Hrsg.) Chancen für eine nachhaltige Energiepolitik Demokratien und Terrorismus – Erfahrungen mit = mçäáíáâJfåÑçI=^éêáä=OMMT= der Bewältigung und Bekämpfung von Terroran- = schlägen. Fallstudien USA, Spanien, Niederlande AG Europäische Integration und Großbritannien. Plädoyer für ein europäisches Sozialmodell = cêáÉÇÉå=ìåÇ=páÅÜÉêÜÉáí, g~åì~ê=OMMT= = bìêçé®áëÅÜÉ=mçäáíáâI=^éêáä=OMMT= = = Sven Biscop Michael Sommer The International Security Engagement of the Eu- Ein soziales Europa braucht Arbeitnehmer- ropean Union - Courage and Capabilities for a mitbestimmung [also available in English] “More Active” EU. Report from the 1st mçäáíáâJfåÑçI=^éêáä=OMMT= European Strategic Forum, Warsaw 2006. = cêáÉÇÉå=ìåÇ=páÅÜÉêÜÉáíI=g~åì~ê=OMMT Bert Hoffmann Kuba in der Nach-Fidel-Ära Stefanie Flechtner cbpJi®åÇÉê~å~äóëÉI=j®êò=OMMT Demokratie ist die beste Antwort im Kampf = gegen den Terrorismus James K. Galbraith = mçäáíáâJfåÑçI=aÉòÉãÄÉê=OMMS= Maastricht 2042 and the Fate of Europe. Toward Convergence and Full Employment Michael Dauderstädt, Barbara Lippert, = bìêçé®áëÅÜÉ=mçäáíáâI=j®êò=OMMT= Andreas Maurer Die deutsche EU-Ratspräsidentschaft 2007: Daniela Schwarzer Hohe Erwartungen bei engen Spielräumen Spannungen im Club der 13 – Reformbedarf = bìêçé®áëÅÜÉ=mçäáíáâI=kçîÉãÄÉê=OMMS= der Eurozone. bìêçé®áëÅÜÉ=mçäáíáâI=j®êò=OMMT= Jana Zitzler Plädoyer für eine europäische Mindestlohnpolitik Arbeitskreis Europa [also available in English] Gefahr für die nationale Daseinsvorsorge im = mçäáíáâJfåÑçI=kçîÉãÄÉê=OMMS= EU-Binnenmarkt? = mçäáíáâJfåÑçI=j®êò=OMMT= Jo Leinen Die Kosten der Nicht-Verfassung Jonathan Wadsworth = mçäáíáâJfåÑçI=kçîÉãÄÉê=OMMS= Mit flexiblen Arbeitsmärkten aus der Beschäfti- gungskrise? Ein Blick auf britische Erfahrungen = mçäáíáâJfåÑçI=j®êò=OMMT Diese und weitere Texte Svenja Blanke Mexikos junge Demokratie zwischen Stagnation sind online verfügbar: und Krise http://www.fes.de/internationalepolitik = cbpJi®åÇÉê~å~äóëÉI=j®êò=OMMT= Jürgen Kahl Bestellungen bitte an: Die Mongolei im Reformtief – Dauerkrise oder Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung „zweiter Aufbruch“? Internationale Politikanalyse cbpJi®åÇÉê~å~äóëÉI=g~åì~ê=OMMT z.Hd. Ursula Müller D – 53170 Bonn E-Mail: [email protected] Tel.: +49 (228) 883-212 Fax: +49 (228) 883-625 International Policy Analysis 1 Content 1 Introduction . 3 2 The Backdrop to the 2009 Election . 3 3 Strategy and Tactics . 3 4 The Centrality of Institutional Change . 6 5 Buried Treasure in the Budget? . 7 6 Greening the Economy . 8 7 »Fraternising« with Asia . 9 8 Whither »Market Fundamentalism«? . 10 9 The Near-Term Challenges . 11 2 Andrew DeWit »Change« Comes to Japan? International Policy Analysis 3 1 Introduction won an unprecedented majority, a startling recovery from 2005. Fully 308 seats went to the DPJ and a pal- This paper reviews the background and major implica- try 119 to the LDP. This election saw the DPJ also take tions of Japan’s August 30, 2009, general election for a commanding 42.4 percent of the vote compared to the Lower House (or House of Representatives) of the the LDP’s 26.7 percent. Compare this gap in the pop- Diet. The election was, in many respects, unprece- ular vote with the 2005 result, when the LDP and DPJ dented in the country’s post-war history. Most strik- received 38 percent and 31 percent of the vote, re- ingly, the long-governing Liberal Democratic Party spectively. After years of stumbles, the DPJ has unde- (LDP) has been decisively turned out of office. The niably arrived as a major party. conservative LDP had held office virtually since its In this election, the minor parties generally saw foundation in 1955, spending less than a year out of their totals shrink or remain unchanged, with the power in 1993–94, when an unwieldy eight-party co- Komei Party dropping from 31 to 21 seats, while the alition took office and then lost its way. Communists and Social Democrats held steady at nine The scenario this time looks very different. The re- and seven seats, respectively. As for the rest, the Peo- cent election’s winner, the Democratic Party of Japan ple’s Party took three seats, the Your Party five seats, (DPJ), has learned a lot from such hard knocks. The the New Japan Party one seat, and the New Party Big DPJ was founded in 1998 via a merger of several op- Earth (a stalwart former LDP politician from Japan’s position parties, and has grown into Japan’s second northern island of Hokkaido) one seat, with unaffili- major party. Its ascent into government is widely ated Diet members taking six seats. expected to bring a major change to Japanese policy- The turnout in this election was 69.28 percent of making institutions and their outputs, bolstering their registered voters. This level of participation was even capacity to respond to a rapidly evolving society and higher than the 67.5 percent that went to the polls in international context. the 2005 election, which hitherto was the peak par- ticipation rate since the introduction of the new sin- gle-member and proportional system in 1994. 2 The Backdrop to the 2009 Election Another unprecedented outcome was the 54 women elected to the Diet. The previous high for Prior to this election, the LDP held 303 of the 480 women was 43 seats in 2005, after former Prime Min- seats in the Lower House, while the DPJ had only 112. ister Koizumi used »assassin« female candidates Fully 31 seats of the remainder were held by the LDP’s (many of them »celebrities«) against established, but coalition partner, the Buddhist-backed Komei Party. rebel members of his own party, the LDP, who had The total gave the LDP–Komei coalition a two-thirds defied him on postal privatisation. Koizumi’s rather majority in the Lower House and thus the ability to opportunistic and almost spur-of-the-moment use of override any vetoes from the Upper House (or House female candidates seemed very much in keeping with of Councillors).1 The rest of the Lower House seats past practice in male-dominated establishment Japan. were divided, in ever smaller numbers, among the After all, the country ranks an abysmal 57th in the minor parties, such as the Communist Party, with nine UN’s gender empowerment rankings. But in the 2009 seats, the Social Democrats, with seven seats, and election, the women candidates were more profes- several others. The LDP’s immense majority in the Diet sional and skilled than their LDP counterparts. While was secured on September 11, 2005, when then they were readily and predictably depicted in sexist Prime Minister Junichirô Koizumi took on elements of terms as the »princess brigade« by the media, these his own party, as well as the opposition, in the so- women are representative of the broader evolution of called »Postal Reform Election«. Before the 2005 elec- women’s role in Japanese society and are, in turn, tion, the DPJ had been within striking distance of the likely to hasten that evolution. LDP, at 177 seats versus the LDP’s 236, but fell to 113 seats, while the LDP increased its number of seats to 296. That landslide result was the largest electoral 3 Strategy and Tactics majority in Japan’s post-war history. Andrew DeWit is But the recent election has set a new high-water The short explanation for the electoral outcome is that Professor of Political mark in Japanese electoral politics. First, the DPJ has the LDP finally exhausted its capacity to respond to Economy of Public changes in the broader social economy and external Finance and Director 1 Through the July 2007 election, the DPJ has 109 seats in the of the Institute for environment and to lead the country towards a new 242-seat Upper House, whereas the LDP was reduced to Economic Research 83 seats and the Komei Party only 20. This means that the paradigm of economic growth and equity. This flexi- at Rikkyô University, LDP–Komei coalition could not control the Upper House. bility had been the LDP’s forte, from its 1955 founding Tokyo. 4 Andrew DeWit »Change« Comes to Japan? to the collapse of the bubble economy in the early policy-making, while also promising stronger ties to 1990s. Since then, the LDP has run short of creative Asia (especially China). But rather than run – like policy responses to address Japan’s needs. Japan has, Koizumi – against the public sector, the DPJ empha- accordingly, been stuck in a time warp for two dec- sised cutting waste and misallocation to increase in- ades: unwilling to tax itself, though rapidly ageing; vestment in people through introducing 26,000 yen geographically in rapidly growing Asia, yet reliant on (197 euros) monthly child allowances, eliminating America; and at an impasse between neoliberal versus high school fees, expanding support for job training, porkbarrel economic policy. and the like. The Koizumi line had, instead, sought to Not all of Japan’s problems can be blamed on the change policy-making by taking on bureaucrats and LDP, of course, and in comparative terms Japanese porkbarrel spenders and essentially shrink the role of society remained stable and the economy held its rank the state, using cost-cutting to retire the bloated pub- among the developed countries.
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