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AR5 SOD Chapter 08 Working Group III – Mitigation of Climate Change Chapter 8 Transport Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute Second Order Draft (SOD) IPCC WG III AR5 Chapter: 8 Title: Transport (Sub)Section: All Author(s): CLAs: Ralph Sims, Roberto Schaeffer LAs: Felix Creutzig, Xochitl Cruz‐Núñez, Marcio D’Agosto, Delia Dimitriu, Maria Josefina Figueroa, Lew Fulton, Shigeki Kobayashi, Alan McKinnon, Peter Newman, Minggao Ouyang, Jamie Schauer, Shigeki Kobayashi, Dan Sperling, Geetam Tiwari CAs: Adjo Amekudzi, Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar Borba, Helena Chum, Phillippe Crist, Han Hao, Jennifer Helfrich, Oliver Lah, Thomas Longden, André Frossard Pereira de Lucena, Paul Peeters, Richard Plevin, Steve Plotkin, Robert Sausen CSA: Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar Borba Version: 15 File name: WGIII_AR5_Draft2_Ch08.docx Date: 22 February 2013 Template Version: 3 1 2 Comment on text by TSU to reviewers 3 This chapter has been allocated 40 template pages, currently it counts 69 pages (excluding this page 4 and the bibliography), so it is 29 pages (!!) over target. Reviewers are kindly asked to indicate where 5 the chapter could be shortened. 6 Colour code used 7 Turquoise highlights are inserted comments from Authors or TSU i.e. [AUTHORS/TSU: ….] Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 1 of 117 Chapter 8 WGIII_AR5_Draft2_Ch08.docx 22 February 2013 Second Order Draft (SOD) IPCC WG III AR5 1 Chapter 8: Transport 2 Contents 3 Chapter 8: Transport...............................................................................................................................2 4 Executive Summary.............................................................................................................................4 5 8.1 Freight and passenger transport (land, air, sea and water) .........................................................8 6 8.1.1e Th context for transport of passengers and freight by land, air and water.......................10 7 8.1.2 Energy demands and direct / indirect emissions for passengers and freight......................11 8 8.2 New developments in emission trends and drivers....................................................................13 9 8.2.2 CO2 emissions.......................................................................................................................14 10 8.2.2.1 Drivers...........................................................................................................................14 11 8.2.2.2 Trends ...........................................................................................................................16 12 8.2.3 Non‐CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, black carbon and aerosols ........................................16 13 8.2.3.1 Drivers and trends.........................................................................................................17 14 8.3 Mitigation technology options, practices and behavioural aspects ...........................................18 15 8.3.2 Reducing energy intensity ‐ incremental vehicle technologies ...........................................18 16 8.3.2.1 LDV drive‐trains.............................................................................................................18 17 8.3.2.2 LDV load reduction........................................................................................................19 18 8.3.2.3 Medium and heavy‐duty vehicles.................................................................................19 19 8.3.2.4 Rail.................................................................................................................................20 20 8.3.2.5 Waterborne transport...................................................................................................20 21 8.3.2.6 Aviation .........................................................................................................................21 22 8.3.3 Energy and carbon intensity reduction from new propulsion systems...............................21 23 8.3.3.1 Electric‐drive road vehicles ...........................................................................................21 24 8.3.3.2 Fuel cell vehicles ...........................................................................................................22 25 8.3.3.3 Advanced propulsion technologies for rail, ships and aircraft .....................................23 26 8.3.4 Fuel carbon intensity reductions .........................................................................................23 27 8.3.4.1 Natural gas and LPG......................................................................................................23 28 8.3.4.2 Electricity.......................................................................................................................24 29 8.3.4.3 Hydrogen.......................................................................................................................24 30 8.3.4.4 Biofuels..........................................................................................................................25 31 8.3.5 Comparative analysis ...........................................................................................................26 32 8.3.6 Behavioural aspects .............................................................................................................29 33 8.4 Infrastructure and systemic perspectives...................................................................................30 34 8.4.1 Path dependencies...............................................................................................................30 Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 2 of 117 Chapter 8 WGIII_AR5_Draft2_Ch08.docx 22 February 2013 Second Order Draft (SOD) IPCC WG III AR5 1 8.4.1.1 GHG emissions impacts from infrastructure.................................................................30 2 8.4.2 Path dependencies of urban form and mobility..................................................................32 3 8.4.2.1 Modal shift opportunities for passengers.....................................................................32 4 8.4.2.2 Modal shift opportunities for freight............................................................................34 5 8.5 Climate change feedback and interaction with adaptation........................................................35 6 8.5.1 Accessibility and feasibility of waterborne transport routes...............................................35 7 8.5.2 Relocation of production, international trade and global supply chains ............................35 8 8.5.3 Urban form and infrastructure ............................................................................................36 9 8.5.4 Fuel combustion and technologies......................................................................................36 10 8.6 Costs and potentials....................................................................................................................37 11 8.6.1 Activity demand reduction ..................................................................................................37 12 8.6.2 Structure and modal shift ....................................................................................................38 13 8.6.3 Energy intensity ...................................................................................................................39 14 8.6.4 Fuel carbon intensity............................................................................................................39 15 8.7 Co‐benefits, risks and spill‐overs ................................................................................................45 16 8.7.2 Socio economic, environmental and public health co‐benefits ..........................................45 17 8.7.3 Technological risk trade‐offs and uncertainties...................................................................47 18 8.7.4 Social acceptability...............................................................................................................47 19 8.8 Barriers and opportunities..........................................................................................................48 20 8.8.1 Barriers and opportunities to reduce GHGs by technologies and practices........................48 21 8.8.2 Financing low‐carbon transport...........................................................................................53 22 8.8.3 Institutional, cultural and legal barriers and opportunities.................................................53 23 8.9 Sectoral implication of transformation pathways and sustainable development......................54 24 8.9.1 Sectoral transformations and the long term stabilization goals..........................................54 25 8.9.2 Sectoral transformational pathways‐ implications from a bottom up perspective ............58 26 8.9.2.1 Transformational possibilities.......................................................................................59 27 8.9.3 Sustainable development, and regional and national implications for developing countries 28 ............................................................................................................................................60 29 8.10 Sectoral policies ........................................................................................................................63 30 8.10.1 Road transport ...................................................................................................................64
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