14-4-307

Adresea

Tajikistan: Khujand Public

- Technical Due Diligence

Client: Contractor:

AF-CITYPLAN s.r.o.

KPM CONSULT a.s.

ENGINEERING ASIA GROUP LLC.

Financed by:

Czech ODA Technical Cooperation Fund

2015

Contractor Date AF-CITYPLAN s.r.o. 2015 KPM CONSULT a.s. ENGINEERING ASIA GROUP LLC.

Represented by Project ID Ing. Jiří Landa 14-4-307

List of authors Ing. Jiří Landa Ing. Karel Steiner Ing., Mgr. Josef Domácí Ing. Petr Šatra Ing. Lubomír Malínek Ing. František Kopecký Ph.D. Checked by: Ing. Jiri Landa

Client European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Represented by Akmal Erkaev

Final report – Khujand – technical due diligence

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Contents

0 Introduction – general project information ...... 7 0.1 Background ...... 7

1 Analysis of current situation ...... 8 1.1 – Site visit 1 – General information ...... 8 1.1.1 Site 1 – Former trolley depot ...... 8 1.1.2 Site 2 – New parking facility for ...... 9 1.1.3 Site 3 – ...... 9 1.2 Site Visit 2 – General Information ...... 10 1.2.1 Site 4 – Private depot ...... 11 1.2.2 Site 5 – Bus station ...... 12 1.2.3 Site 6 – – Market area ...... 12 1.3 Site Visit 3 – General Information ...... 13 1.3.1 Site 7 – Khujand international ...... 14 1.3.2 Site 8 – ...... 15 1.3.3 Site 9 – Bus lines terminal ...... 16 1.4 Overview of public transport in the city of Khujand ...... 17 1.4.1 Modal split ...... 17 1.4.2 Operations ...... 17 1.4.3 Vehicles ...... 18 1.4.4 Ticketing system ...... 18 1.4.5 Bus stops ...... 18 1.4.6 Management of public transport system ...... 18 1.4.7 Granting of licenses ...... 18 1.4.8 Emissions from public transport...... 19 1.4.9 Surveys of the Khujand public transport ...... 19 1.5 Conclusion ...... 19

2 Traffic model ...... 21 2.1 Current public transport system ...... 21 2.1.1 Transport model ...... 22 2.2 New public transport system ...... 22 2.3 Conclusion ...... 29

3 Technical parameters for buses ...... 31 3.1 Introduction ...... 31 3.1.1 Public transport in the city of Khujand ...... 31 3.1.2 Description of marshrutkas ...... 31 3.1.3 Reasons for bus fleet operation ...... 32 3.2 Ways of powering of public transport vehicles in Khujand ...... 32 3.2.1 Electric () ...... 32

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3.2.2 Hybrid drive ...... 32 3.2.3 LPG drive ...... 32 3.2.4 CNG drive ...... 33 3.2.5 Diesel drive ...... 33 3.2.6 Non-standard drive options ...... 33 3.2.7 Evaluation of suitability of bus drives ...... 33 3.3 Technical parameters of buses ...... 34 3.3.1 The number of seated and standing passengers ...... 34 3.3.2 Type of buses ...... 34 3.3.3 Number of doors ...... 34 3.3.4 Fuel type ...... 34 3.3.5 Arrangement of a driver’s cabin...... 34 3.3.6 Check-in system ...... 34 3.3.7 Number of buses ...... 34 3.4 Example of suitable bus designs ...... 34 3.4.1 Low floor design with 4 doors ...... 34 3.4.2 Low floor design with 3 doors and baggage storage above front wheel ..... 35 3.4.3 Low floor design with 3 doors and seats above front wheels ...... 36 3.4.4 Low entry design with 3 doors ...... 36 3.5 Procurement strategy ...... 37 3.5.1 Taxes and custom duties ...... 37 3.5.2 Tendering process ...... 38 3.5.3 Budget and additional services ...... 38

4 Depot facilities...... 39 4.1 Introduction ...... 39 4.2 Probable location of new bus depot ...... 39 4.3 Technical facilities ...... 40 4.4 Human resources ...... 41 4.4.1 Responsibility of individual depot employee professions...... 41 4.5 Price estimation of the new depot investment ...... 43 4.5.1 Construction costs ...... 43 4.5.2 Equipment costs ...... 44 4.5.3 Total estimated investment costs ...... 44 Estimation of operating costs ...... 45 4.6 ...... 45 4.6.1 Labour costs ...... 45 4.6.2 Costs of maintenance and spare parts ...... 45 4.6.3 Costs of energy and media ...... 45 4.7 Decision maker summary ...... 46 4.8 Time schedule for implementation ...... 46

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4.8.1 Facilities and media required for construction ...... 47 4.8.2 Milestones in the approval process ...... 47

5 Basic Considerations on Changes in Collection ...... 49 5.1 Analysis of the Current State and Basic Considerations on Changes in Fare Collection ...... 49 5.2 Legislative Analysis of the Current State of Fare Collection in Khujand City ..... 50 5.3 Draft Design for Fare Collection in Khujand City...... 51 5.3.1 Draft of the future public transport system ...... 51 5.3.2 Fare ...... 52 5.3.3 Reduced fare ...... 52 The right for reduced fare ...... 52 Levels of reduced fare ...... 53 Authentication of the reduced fare ...... 53 5.3.4 Remuneration of reduced fare ...... 53 5.4 Tariff ...... 54 5.4.1 The lines coming in the tariff system ...... 54 5.4.2 Proposal for the tariff structure ...... 55 5.5 Tickets and Their Distribution ...... 58 5.5.1 Printed paper tickets ...... 58 5.5.2 Ticket-issuing machines ...... 58 5.5.3 SMS tickets...... 58 5.5.4 Prepaid tickets on non-contact chip card...... 59 5.5.5 Recommendation for Distribution of Tickets in Khujand ...... 59 5.5.6 Options of ticket distribution in Khujand ...... 60 5.6 Approximate costs of the ticketing system ...... 61 5.7 Processing System ...... 62 5.8 Distribution of Revenues Among Carriers – Clearing ...... 64 5.9 Ticket Inspection ...... 64 5.10 Information at Stops ...... 64 5.11 Institutional Infrastructure ...... 64 5.12 Framework of Investment and Operating Costs ...... 66 5.12.1 Investment costs without VAT, custom duties and transport...... 66 5.13 Operating costs ...... 67 5.14 Conclusion ...... 67

6 Financial and Economic Appraisal of „Khujand Public Transport Project “ ...... 68 6.1 Options determining...... 68 6.2 Methodological notes: ...... 68 6.3 (Incremental) Effects classification: ...... 70 6.3.1 Municipality: ...... 70 6.3.2 Management Centre for Public Transport in Khujand (Regulator) ...... 70

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6.3.3 State unitary enterprise "Khujand City Bus" (Publicly Owned Provider) ..... 71 6.3.4 Private Providers (consolidated over all current private providers) ...... 71 6.3.5 Externalities and Public Goods ...... 72 6.4 FA pro FIRR - Cash flow of the project analysis - not reflecting financing ...... 73 6.5 EA EIRR Economic Analysis of project ...... 74 6.6 Summary ...... 75

7 Environmental and Social Analysis ...... 76 7.1 Site observation ...... 76 7.1.1 Site observation of the former trolley bus depot ...... 76 7.1.2 Site observation of the proposed depot 2 – space for new bus depot and overnight parking ...... 80 7.1.3 Site observation of the proposed depot 3 – New location north...... 84 7.2 Description and assessment of the significant environmental and social impacts of the project ...... 86 7.2.1 Impacts associated with construction ...... 86 7.2.2 Impacts associated with operation ...... 95 7.2.3 Impacts associated with closure and decommissioning ...... 108 7.3 Identifying the project stakeholders ...... 108 7.4 Stakeholder engagement programme & action plan ...... 110 7.4.1 Stakeholder engagement – passive ...... 110 7.4.2 Stakeholder engagement action plan ...... 111

8 Conclusion ...... 116

Enclosures

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0 Introduction – general project information

0.1 Background Khujand City (the “City”) is the second biggest city of , home to approximately 165,000 people. The City is 40 square kilometres in area, located in a mountainous province, situated on the River at the mouth of the .

Public Transport management in the City currently falls under the responsibility of the Khujand City Transport and communication department. Currently the SCUE ( Khujand) is not active in the public transport services and is financed through budgetary transfers from the City Budget. The public transport sector is characterised by a large number of overlapping routes. The route network is in need of revision in line with the City’s growth patterns. This is expected to ease traffic congestion by directing public transport to streets where demand is more acute, decrease pollution and bring efficiency measures to the sector.

As the City continues its economic development, which brings with it increasing levels of private car ownership and congestion, the City recognises that a more robust public transport system for citizens is one of the key pillars of urban sustainability.

EBRD is considering a transaction consisting of a loan of USD 5 million from the Bank and the loan is proposed to be co-financed by USD 10 million of concessional funding (potentially subsidised loan + grant). The total investment costs are estimated at USD 15.0 million (the “Project”). The Project is expected to include:

a) Fleet renewal through introduction of new mid-size and/or large buses and reorganisation of the existing mini-buses into feeder services; b) Depot rehabilitation and equipment; c) Introduction of an system covering all modes of public transport; and d) Corporate Development to build operational and financial sustainability in the Company.

The Project, with its investment in clean public transport using new bus rolling-stock, will contribute to an improvement in people’s daily lives by further improving public transport services in the City. The Project will also contribute to an improved regulatory approach to private sector participation (“PSP”) in the sector, by introducing private bus operators into the large fleet operations.

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1 Analysis of current situation

1.1 – Site visit 1 – General information

Excursions were directed to the right bank of the Syr-Darya River in the north-eastern part of the city. The aim of the excursion was the former trolleybus depot, the area for a new parking facility (shutdown and basic treatment of vehicles after return), and the bus station.

 Site 1 – Former trolley bus depot  Site 2 – New parking facility  Site 3 – Bus station

1.1.1 Site 1 – Former trolley bus depot

Progress: Former trolley bus depot – the depot is no longer in use for trolleybuses. The are old. This depot needs mayor reconstruction of the buildings, roads and service maintenance facilities for buses and for the operators of buses.

Findings: This site was used as trolleybus depot till 1990. Buildings are in a catastrophic state, they need mayor reconstruction. A huge investment will be necessary to rebuild this site into a state in which the new busses could be placed there, and this site could serve as depot for buses in accordance with technical

standards.

The current state of former trolleybus depot

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1.1.2 Site 2 – New parking facility for buses

New parking facility for buses

Progress: This site is envisaged as the new parking facility for buses and maintenance

Findings: This area is considered to be new parking facility for buses and maintenance with area of around 30 000 m2. The area is close to the bus station where the marshrutkas (bus lines) terminate. Reconstruction planning project with sufficient funding is needed to proceed in order to begin with the construction.

The above pictures show the view on the current situation in the location.

1.1.3 Site 3 – Bus station

Bus station

Progress: Current bus station

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Findings: It is a typical bus station at the end of bus line. The area needs to be reconstructed for further use. The bus terminal needs renovation to fulfil its function - especially equipment for passengers dispatching, information panels and waiting areas for passengers.

The pictures above show the parking site for buses in front of the bus station.

Above pictures show exterior and interior of the bus station building.

1.2 Site Visit 2 – General Information Excursion to the northwest sector of the city on the right bank of the Syr-Darja River and to the west of the city on the left bank of the river.

The excursion to the private depot site was followed by an excursion to the bus station for intercity transport in the southeast part of the city (on the left bank of the river)

The excursion was concluded by visiting a transport node in the city centre (at the Market area).

 Site 4 – Private depot  Site 5 – Bus station  Site 6 – Transport hub – Market area

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1.2.1 Site 4 – Private depot

Progress: Depot (garage) of a private transport operator

Findings: The depot belongs to one of the private bus operators providing public transport services in Khujand. The depot is equipped indeed with all the required sections, which are apparently functional but obsolete (at the level of technology of 70’s to 80’s of the 20th century). Only the section of vehicle diagnosis is quite new - the garage that was built in joint venture with an Estonian company.

The pictures above show the private depot (garage).

The pictures above show workshop and new section for car diagnostic.

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1.2.2 Site 5 – Bus station

Progress: The bus station for intercity transport

Findings: The bus station for intercity transport is in the centre of Khujand City. The condition of this site requires rebuilding for further use.

The pictures above show the passenger platforms.

1.2.3 Site 6 – Transport hub – Market area

Progress: This site is a transport hub in the city centre around the market area.

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Findings: This site is in the city centre. There are too many people and the area is hardly accessible for large buses.

The pictures above show the parking site for buses in front of bus terminal.

The pictures above show the area in around the city market transport hub.

1.3 Site Visit 3 – General Information The excursions were organized similarly to the ones taking place in the previous days, this time following the routes leading outside the limits of the City of Khujand (but serviced by city carriers) and to the international airport (Khujand - LBD), located in Chkalovsk and the Khujand train station, which lies in the City of Gafurov.

The trail excursion led to additional terminal stops of lines, especially within the territory of the city and the city Gafurov and Kairakkum.

 Site 7 – Khujand international airport  Site 8 – Train station  Site 9 – terminal stops of lines

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1.3.1 Site 7 – Khujand international airport

Progress: This site is a transport hub of two cities, Khujand and Gafurov.

Findings: This site is located near the city centre of Gafurov. The City of Gafurov is the middle one of three cities located along the road A376. Those are Khujand, Gafurov and Chkalovsk. This location is making the airport an important transport hub of the area with a significant traffic increase potential.

The picture above shows the terminal building of the .

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1.3.2 Site 8 – Train station

Progress: The train station in Gafurov is serviced by city carriers from Khujand

Findings: Trains to Saratov (Russian Federation - Volga Federal District) run twice a week from the Gafurov train station, and once a week to . Eastwards - into Uzbek , Fergana and Andizhan, possibly in Jalalabad or in passenger trains do not operate there. There is no train station in the capital , given the need to trace through neighbouring , and not entirely idyllic mutual relations between these two countries.

The pictures above show the area in front of train station, this area is used for parking

The pictures above show the train station and the building of new train station office.

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1.3.3 Site 9 – Bus lines terminal

Progress: This site is a terminal point of bus lines. New transport hub is supposed to be built there.

Findings: Currently this site is used as terminal and dispatching centre for a small bus operator.

The pictures above show dispatching of a small bus operator.

The pictures above show the new transport hub construction site.

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1.4 Overview of public transport in the city of Khujand Currently, public transport in Khujand is operated by private entrepreneurs. Most vehicles on the road are so called marshrutkas, with a capacity of 11-14 seats. Public transport offers a good coverage over the city with frequent and point-to- point lines. However services are not very comfortable and the network with many lines and vehicles is difficult to understand, not always efficient and sometimes chaotic. The Municipality of Khujand is not satisfied with the current standard of services and wants to reduce the negative impact of minibuses on road congestion, safety and environment.

Basic characteristics of the system:

- The public transport network has many lines (92 marshrutka lines in total) run by 5 private operators; - The municipal trolleybus company is no longer operating. In the city there are no operating trolleybuses; - The system of awarding routes license to the private operators is based on applications by operators and not on tenders; - The enforcement of regulations and laws related to public transport vehicles and operators is relatively weak.

The 92 marshrutka lines consist of:

- 28 urban lines (within Khujand municipal boundaries); - 46 suburban lines (to nearby suburbs); - 18 regional lines (to other settlements in the region).

On a yearly basis 84.5 million passengers are using public transport in Khujand and the region. This means an average of 295,000 passenger journeys per day – 30 % of them are made on urban lines, 47 % on suburban and 23 % on regional lines.

1.4.1 Modal split

- Public Transport accounts for 57 % of total daily trips in Khujand. - In the morning peak hour (7:30 - 8:30 AM) the public transport share increases to 70 %.

1.4.2 Operations

- Operating fleet includes over 1500 small busses (marshrutkas), the largest private company operates around half of the services.

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1.4.3 Vehicles

- Average age of the small bus vehicle is 12 years, at least 7 % of them is older than 20 years. - Drivers own most vehicles. Only the largest private operator has currently owns number of minibuses.

1.4.4 Ticketing system

- Tickets do not exist within the city. - Passengers pay cash to the driver (or conductor). - Payment is done per single trip dependent on distance travelled (1 TJS inside of the city and 1.6 to the outside of the city). - passes do not exist. - A general system of concessionary (reduced) for certain categories of people is not introduced. - Currently there is no overview of the number of passengers travelling and income generated. - Since registration of tickets sales lacks, operators most likely don’t pay proper VAT.

1.4.5 Bus stops

- Khujand has a limited number of stops with shelters. - No information about public transport is available for passengers at bus stops. - Bus stops are not always safe (in terms of traffic safety), partly caused by the high number of small busses. - Small busses do stop on demand of passengers at locations without a stop.

1.4.6 Management of public transport system

- Large number of operators, routes and vehicles is difficult to manage and control. - Transport Department of Khujand City Administration has limited management capacity. - The Department also lacks sufficient computer equipment to support management tasks. - Responsibility for management of public transport is shared between the Ministry of Transport and the Khujand City Administration. - The route network is the result of initiatives (applications) made by private operators to open a new route. This means that authorities don’t have sufficient role in organising public transport.

1.4.7 Granting of licenses

- Nowadays, licences to operate (new) routes are awarded after an application (request) from private operators to the relevant authorities. - An Evaluation Committee decides to grant or reject the application for a license.

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- Operators have to be in compliance with regulations for transportation of passengers but no additional minimum quality standards are required.

1.4.8 Emissions from public transport

- Over 1500 small busses (marshrutkas) are operating in Khujand and the region. - The high number of small busses (marshrutkas) as well as insufficient maintenance contributes to air pollution. - Car ownership and car use is growing in Khujand and its surroundings which will further contribute to the air pollution.

- Reduction of greenhouse emissions (like CO2) has become a worldwide policy issue.

1.4.9 Surveys of the Khujand public transport The surveys of public transport in Khujand were conducted during the period from 30th December 2014 to 7th of January 2015. The surveys were processed and evaluated for the purposes of the Public Transport Model as the tool for optimisation of the transport services.

1.5 Conclusion The reasons for supporting the project include a strong and high quality legislative basis for promotion of public transport in Khujand. The weakness in terms of the legislative framework may be its low enforceability in compliance with legislation in connection with the organization of public transport. The threat to the project appears to be undersized body regulator of public transport, which currently has only two very skilled and professional officials who have great potential. Their qualifications and experience is a great opportunity, but they cannot deal with underpowered public transport regulator office.

PROBLEM LIMITATIONS

Due to limited congestions, the average speed of public transport is high. However, the speed is likely to decline as a Speed result of the growing number of cars on the Khujand road network.

High frequency in most popular routes.

Interval Bus stops – Some stops are equipped with roofs, but there are no passenger information boards or maps of public transport available.

Reliability Lack of time table.

Vehicle capacity Crowded vehicles in peak hours.

Bus comfort Small busses are not suitable for standing passengers.

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Public transport services start at 5:00 and terminate at 20:00 Hours of operation with limited night service by shared taxis.

Fares are set at relatively low level. One trip fare is 1 TJS in Fare Khujand.

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2 Traffic model

2.1 Current public transport system As seen above present public transport system operates entirely with marshrutka vehicle. There are 92 lines. These lines are routed from one destination to another directly to exclude transfers as much as possible because passengers pay fares for each once more. This design of public transport network requires a large number of lines and vehicles. Consequences of this design are visible in the city centre where vast majority of marshrutka lines are routed. It can be seen on the figure below.

The current network of bus lines in Khujand City

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The large number of lines on the Lenin Street

For further analysis of transport relations the transport model of Khujand city was made.

2.1.1 Transport model The basis for route network definition is the transport model of the current public transport system of the city of Khujand, which comes from present passenger flow.

The transport model of the city of Khujand and its close surroundings was made to calculate volumes in the public transport system. The model was created using software VISUM® 14.00, which is part of transport-planning software solution PTV- VISION® developed by PTV Karlsruhe.

The Transport model is composed of 2 parts. The first part is the model of transport demand, which is represented by demand matrix of transport relations. Second part is a model of a transport supply, which is represented by a public transport network. A calibration of the transport model is based on current occupancy rates of public transport lines.

The demand matrix of public transport was calculated from inputs based on data provided by Khujand municipality.

The supply part of the model is determined by lines of public transport system and number of vehicle journeys which servers on those lines.

To calibrate the model, data from survey are needed. For this purpose there was conducted survey which collected sample data from occupancy of the current public transport lines.

The result of the survey indicates that the highest volume of passengers is in the centre of Khujand. Near Panshanbe Bazar the maximum volume exceeds the value of 107 thousand passengers a day. In its whole length the Lenin Street has the highest volume of passengers from the entire network. Off peak hour volume of passengers reaches 83 % of the peak hour volume.

2.2 New public transport system The purpose for implementation of new bus lines is to create a backbone of public transport system. There were identified terminal bus stops, where is possible to end line routes and which are conveniently accessible from road network with high volume of passengers. There are outskirts parts of Khujand city and other neighbouring towns where it is convenient to place end stations for designed bus lines. Bus lines could be routed to Chashma, 3rd micro region, Galamaidon, Unji, Chkalov, Gafurov, Kairakum. In the Chashma there are potential end stop points in Chashma-3 and Chashma-1. Some bus lines can be designed shorter and can be terminated in the Abreshim bus terminal. In the Chkalov city there are possible terminal stop points in the New quarter (Novyi kvartal), at the Khujand airport and at the construction materials market. There is also possibility to route the bus lines through Kairakum and end them in the wellness centre Bahoriston. The stop point Hospital Nr.2 could serve for lines which operate inside of the Khujand city.

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End stop points for bus lines

New bus lines are routed through the parts of the network with highest volume of passengers. Because there is limited number of new buses to be bought, the new design of the public transport system uses 10 bus lines. Higher number of bus lines would cause decrease in the efficiency of bus transport system due to long intervals or would raise requirement for more buses. There is no need for implementation of all direct connection between each two terminal station because implemented ticketing system will be tolerant to transfers. Some of the direct connections which had been removed from consideration could be served by marshrutka transport system.

Bus lines are designed as a backbone transport system. Theirs routes go through roads with the highest volumes of passengers in the network. Marshrutka transport system was changed to support core function of bus lines. Walk distance to nearest stop points remain the same because all stop points which are served in the current public transport system are also served for the new public transport system.

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Proposed bus line network

There is the list of bus lines with routes determined by checkpoint bus stops.

Line number 1

Direction: Chashma 3 - Chkalov (Novyi kvartal)

Checkpoint stops: Chashma-3 – Regional Hospital – Abreshim terminal – 32nd micro region – Donor centre – Gagarin street – Avtostancija Gafurov – Chkalov Novyi kvartal

Line number 2

Direction: Chashma 1 - Chkalov (construction materials market)

Checkpoint stops: Chashma-1 – Obl. SES – Syrdarinskaya Street – Iubileynyi bridge – Nabiev street – Univermag – K. Khujandi street – Gagarin street – Shark street – Panshanbe – Chkalov construction materials market

Line number 3

Direction: Abresim terminal – Gafurov Checkpoint stops: Abreshim terminal – 34th mikrorayon – Chumchuk aral – round Racketa – R. Djalil street – Univermag – Panshanbe – Gafurov

Line number 4

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Direction: Abresim terminal – Bahoriston

Checkpoint stops: Abreshim terminal – Trolleybusnyi park – R. Hodzhiev Street – Univermag – Panshanbe – Kairakkum – Bahoriston

Line number 5

Direction: 3rd micro region - Chkalov (Novyi kvartal)

Checkpoint stops: 3rd micro region – Obl. GAI –Khujand State University – K. Khujandi street – Gagarin street – Shark street – Panshanbe – Avtoctancija Gafurov – Chkalov novyi kvartal

Line number 6

Direction: 3rd micro region – Gafurov

Checkpoint stops: 3rd micro region – 8th, 12th micro region – Chuma bazar – 50 years USSR Street – Univermag – Gafurov

Line number 7

Direction: 3rd micro region – Unji

Checkpoint stops: 3rd micro region – 8th, 12th micro region – Univermag – Shark Street – Unji

Line number 8

Direction: 3rd micro region – Galamaidon

Checkpoint stops: 3rd micro region – 50 years USSR Street – Univermag – Galamaidon

Line number 9

Direction: Galamoidon - Airport – Gafurov

Checkpoint stops: Galamaydon – Kooperator – Gagarin Street – Ehson hotel – Airport – Gafurov

Line number 10

Direction: 3rd micro region - Hospital Nr. 2

Checkpoint stops: 3rd micro region – 50 years USSR Street – R. Hodzhiev Street – Donor center

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– K. Khujandi Street – Gagarin street – Shark street – Panshanbe –Hospital Nr. 2

Calculated vehicle journeys intervals are listed in the table below to all bus lines.

Bus lines service parameters

Round Rush number Line trip hour Direction of number length interval vehicles [km] [min]

1 Chashma 3 - Chkalov (Novyi kvartal) 53.563 10.0 12

2 Chashma 1 - Chkalov (construction materials market) 42.816 15.0 7

3 Abresim terminal - Gafurov 32.414 7.5 10

4 Abresim terminal - Bahoriston 55.724 10.0 13

5 3rd micro region - Chkalov (Novyi kvartal) 51.054 15.0 8

6 3rd micro region - Gafurov 36.424 7.5 12

7 3rd micro region - Unji 28.188 15.0 5

8 3rd micro region - Galamaidon 26.019 15.0 4

9 Galamoidon - Airport - Gafurov 51.177 12.0 10

10 3rd micro region - Hospital Nr. 2 27.885 20.0 4

sum 85

Table shows the rush hour interval for each bus line based on the highest volume of passengers which is present on the line route and number of vehicles required for such level of service. The reserve vehicles are not counted in the number of required vehicles. The reserve buses will have to be deployed operatively from the amount of 15 reserve buses. There is a requirement for 255 bus drivers whose ensures the realization of designed level of service. In the new designed bus transport system there are 2 shifts a day for each bus. Driver’s shifts have to be organized as split shifts. Reasons for this type of order are high workload of buses and limited amount of buses. These two factors make the drivers rest periods impossible to plan.

For marshrutka transport system the main function is to support the backbone function of bus line network. In the process of designing new marshrutka lines the priority was to avoid overlaying of marshrutka lines and bus lines as much as possible. There is needed a certain level of overlaying because there must be ensured possibility of transfers between marshrutka lines and bus lines.

The new public transport system counts with 37 marshrutka lines. No current marshrutka lines remain unchanged in the newly designed public transport system. 13 marshrutka lines have changed their route to work better like supply lines for bus lines. Rest of the marshrutka lines from current public transport system have to be cancelled because they are not compatible with the new design of bus line network. There are 2 types of marshrutka lines. First operates within the city and those lines are included into new ticketing system. These lines have number from 20 to 43. Other marshrutka lines serve like connection to the region around the city. These lines are not included into new ticketing system. These lines are marked with numbers from 44 to 56. Number names of marshrutka lines in the new transport system are only

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informative. For further implementation it is recommended to change the numbering system of marhrutka lines to a logical system which is consistent with local convention.

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Using the same method as for bus lines vehicle journeys intervals have been calculated for marsrutkas and they are listed in the table below.

Marshrutka lines service parameters

Round Rush Number Line trip hour Direction of number Length interval vehicles [km] [min]

20 13th micro region - Sartukai 13.372 3.0 17 21 3rd micro region – Galamaidon 9.390 12.0 4 22 – Kakhorova Street 20.123 3.0 24 23 Soicha – Unji 23.649 4.0 21 24 Galamaidon – 13th micro region 18.911 15.0 5 25 Razok – Rumon 15.357 12.0 5 26 Pachtakor – Goziyon 21.096 7.5 10 27 Sardarinskyi Settlement – Khujand Airport 18.597 7.5 9 28 Somon-market – Kvartal Zaozjornyi (Chkalovsk) 15.863 7.5 8 29 Pulichukur – Goziyon 13.293 7.5 7 30 Chkalov (construction materials market) – Unji 22.426 10.0 8 31 Pulichukur – Hospital Nr.2 13.024 15.0 4 32 Unji – Abreshim terminal 28.628 7.5 13 33 12th micro region – 27th micro region 11.387 5.0 9 34 Rumon – Soicha 14.878 5.0 11 35 Syrdarinskyi Settlement – Gafurov 17.929 12.0 6 36 27th micro region – 34th micro region 11.723 4.0 12 37 34th micro region – 34th micro region (circular line) 16.402 15.0 3 38 Gafrov – Turbaza 31.910 15.0 8 39 27th micro region – 27th micro region (circular line) 13.027 7.5 7 40 Hospital Nr. 2 - Unji 18.047 6.0 11 41 Sardarinskyi Settlement – Kvartal Zaoziornyi (Chkalov) 21.844 10.0 8 42 Gafurov – Syrdarinskiy settlement 19.372 12.0 6 43 Abreshim terminal – 27th micro region 14.387 10.0 6 44 Galamaidon – Proletarsk 40.894 10.0 14 45 Galamaidon – Nov 50.889 12.0 14 46 Abreshim terminal – Samgar 53.967 10.0 18 47 Gafurov – Izos 23.056 10.0 8 48 Gafurov– Internacional 34.894 10.0 12 49 Abreshim terminal – Palos 22.081 4.0 20 50 Kuibishev – Abreshim terminal 22.185 15.0 6 51 Gafurov – Histevarz 24.699 5.0 17 52 Abreshim terminal – Kuibishev 23.894 15.0 6 53 Gafurov – Chigdalik 60.284 7.5 26 54 Gafurov – Katagan 14.369 7.5 8 55 Gafurov – Histevarz – Katagan 29.906 4.0 25 56 Galamaidon – Proletarsk 53.838 7.5 23 Sum 419

Detailed line routes of all new public transport lines are placed in the separate report of Task 2.

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2.3 Conclusion Outputs of the public transport model are numbers of passengers. The results are available for each kind of transport system separately (buses, marsrutkas). Those values serve as one input into financial and ecological evaluations.

The number of transfers is a good indicator for comparing the current transport system and the new transport system. On the following graphs all passenger journeys are divided into categories according to number of transfers.

Transfers on passenger journeys (current transport system)

4.70% 0.03%

No transfer 1 transfer 37.66% 57.61% 2 transfers 3 or more transfers

Transfers on passenger journeys (new transport system)

6.23% 0.37%

No transfer 1 transfer 33.79% 2 transfers 59.61% 3 or more transfers

Implementation of the backbone bus transport system will result into increasing of “2 transfers” and “3 and more transfers” categories to 6.60 %.

The category “3 and more transfers” reaches 0.37% instead of insignificant 0.03% in the current system.

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Share of passenger trips (new transport system)

11% Bus lines

24% City marshrutka lines 65% Regional marshrutka lines

In the new transport system 65 % of passenger trips are conducted by bus lines. Rest of the passenger trips are carried by Marshrutka lines as shown in the Report 2 – Definition of Route Network.

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3 Technical parameters for buses

3.1 Introduction

3.1.1 Public transport in the city of Khujand Currently, public transport in Khujand is operated by private entrepreneurs. Most vehicles on the road are so called marshrutkas, minibuses with a capacity of 11-14 seats. Public transport offers a good coverage over the City with frequent and point-to- point lines. However services are not very comfortable and the network with many lines and vehicles is difficult to understand, not always efficient and sometimes chaotic.

General description:

- A public transport network with many lines (92 marshrutka lines in total) run by 5 private operators; - A municipal trolleybus company providing is no longer operating. In the city there are no operating trolleybuses - A system of awarding routes license to the private operators is based on applications by operators and not on tenders; - Relatively weak enforcement of regulations and laws related to public transport vehicles and operators. - Passengers perceive high fares and overcrowded vehicles as the main problems of the current quality of public transport.

3.1.2 Description of marshrutkas The 92 marshrutka lines consist of:

- 28 urban lines (within Khujand municipal boundaries); - 46 suburban lines (to nearby suburbs); - 18 regional lines (to other settlements in the region).

On a yearly basis 84.5 million passengers are using public transport in Khujand and the region. This means an average of 260,000 passenger journeys per day – 30 % of them are made on urban lines, 47 % on suburban and 23 % on regional lines.

- Operating fleet includes 1,534 marshrutkas, 44% are operated on lines of the largest company. - Average age of the marshrutka vehicles is 12 years, at least 7 % is older than 20 years. - Drivers own most vehicles, only the largest private operator has also a number of minibuses in ownership. - By average a vehicle complete only 5 round-trips a day and operates for less than 5 hours! - This generates a high operational cost that is reflected in a relatively high fare. - Tickets and travel passes do not exist. - Payment is done per single trip and dependent from distance travelled (1 TJS inside of the city and 1.6 to outside of the city)

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3.1.3 Reasons for bus fleet operation

- Over 1500 marshrutkas are operating in Khujand and the region. The high number of marshrutkas as well as insufficient maintenance contributes to air pollution and increase congestions. - Car ownership and car use is growing in and around Khujand and will contribute to increased air pollution

- Reduction of greenhouse emissions (like CO2) has become a worldwide policy issue. The bus engines fulfil the standard of V or VI. - Large number of operators, routes and vehicles is difficult to manage and control. It is difficult for passengers to orient themselves in the traffic system. The bus system reduces the amount of routes. - Passengers perceive overcrowded vehicles. The capacity of marshrutkas is exceeded. - Boarding on a bus is quicker due to higher amount of doors. Also, check-in of passengers is potentially quicker, depending on a ticketing system. - Currently, there is no insight into the amount of transported passengers and generated income as passengers pay in cash directly to a driver (or a conductor). The operator of buses is opened to change the ticketing system.

3.2 Ways of powering of public transport vehicles in Khujand

3.2.1 Electric (trolleybuses) The state of energetics in Khujand led to cancellation of trolleybuses. In order to ensure reliable public transport, restoration of operation of trolleybuses is not possible, even in a longer time horizon.

3.2.2 Hybrid drive The battery life is low and the price is high. Also the price of the system (even without a battery) is significantly higher than the price of a conventional drive. Maintenance is also expensive. Lower consumption is devaluated by higher operational costs. In our opinion, the hybrid drive is currently in the phase of development and is not suitable for operation so far. The advantage is the ability to convert the drive with purely internal combustion engine to the hybrid drive at any time in the future.

3.2.3 LPG drive In Europe, buses with LPG drive are currently not mass-produced. Only buses with converted compression-ignition engines are operated (diesels). Such modified engines do not meet standards of EURO 5 and have unacceptably high consumption (up to twice as high as diesel engines). Another issue lies in the need of perfect desulphurisation of gas. Data are based on experiences of the public transport company of Most-Litvínov in the Czech Republic.

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3.2.4 CNG drive CNG buses are more expensive by approx. 35,000 € (the difference lies mainly in these parts: Kevlar CNG cylinders, price difference of diesel and CNG engines, self- extinguishing equipment for the engine compartment, cylinder covers) and CNG drive requires a specialized refuelling station. Regarding consumption of diesel fuel, it can be increased by about 15% to obtain figures in "kg" of CNG (example: 35 litres/100 km of diesel corresponds to approx. 40 kg/100 km of CNG). This increase is caused mainly by lower efficiency of CNG engines (by 8%) and costs of increased bus consumption caused by higher weight of a bus due to weight of CNG tanks (by 6%). Also maintenance is more expensive - due to more frequent changes of oil and spark plugs, and revision of CNG equipment (possible increase compared to diesel fuel is by approx. 15%). These facts imply that convenience of implementing CNG buses strongly depends on the difference between the price of gas and diesel and on accessibility of a gas filling station.

The main inconvenience of implementation of CNG drive in Khujand transport is unreliable supplies of natural gas in Tajikistan which is caused by crisis in relations with Uzbekistan.

3.2.5 Diesel drive Diesel fuel is the most common type of fuel for trucks and buses. It is also the most affordable type as it does not require electrical mains or pipelines. The price depends on the amount of taxation. Without the tax burden, prices of diesel and CNG are similar. The advantage of diesel engines is their highest efficiency of all applicable fuels. Refuelling is possible at every gas station and it bears the lowest risk.

Certain problem may lie in the quality of desulphurisation required to meet the environmental standard of EURO 3 and above. However, this also applies for LPG and CNG. Currently, it is possible to ensure (only on special offer) engines that meet the standard of EURO 5. Since the beginning of 2015 only the engines fulfilling the standard of EURO 6 are available on European market.

3.2.6 Non-standard drive options The Khujand authorities asked the question of double drive option (e. g. LPG and Diesel, or CNG and Diesel together in one bus unit). These combinations of fuels and drives are not known around the world.

Also the option to implement fleet with two different types of drives (e. g. 50 buses with diesel drive and 50 buses with CNG drive) is not economical and maintenance is more expensive as well. The depot would need to build and possess buildings and equipment for both drives (e. g. the CNG gas station is fundamentally different from diesel gas station).

3.2.7 Evaluation of suitability of bus drives We evaluated the following parameters:

 Fuel availability

 Subsidiary expenses associated with fuel implementation

 Impact on a price of vehicles

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 Maintenance costs

Based on the above listed facts, we recommend the conventional diesel drive.

3.3 Technical parameters of buses

3.3.1 The number of seated and standing passengers The bus capacity shall include at least 25 seats and 50 standing places.

3.3.2 Type of buses Salt is not being used for winter maintenance of roads in Khujand which results in problems in traffic due to residual snow on roads. Articulated 18 m bus is therefore not suitable for operation in Khujand. Standard 12 m city single-type buses, wheelchair accessible with designated space for a wheelchair inside are proposed.

3.3.3 Number of doors The minimum number of doors is 3 due to sufficient exchange of passengers allowing shorter time spent in the bus stops.

3.3.4 Fuel type Based on the comparison of CNG and diesel fuel and lack of CNG availability in Tajikistan, a conventional drive with diesel fuel is recommended.

3.3.5 Arrangement of a driver’s cabin A driver's cabin should be separated from the passengers’ area due to safety reasons and also to avoid potential distraction of a driver by passengers while driving.

3.3.6 Check-in system The check-in system is specified in the report on task 5 - Fare revenue collection system design.

3.3.7 Number of buses The number of proposed bus lines and the number of buses is specified in the report on task 2 - Definition of Route Network. The proposal for the city of Khujand involves introduction of 10 bus lines with 85 buses operated on daily basis. In total, it is recommended to purchase 100 buses, 15 of which shall serve as an operational backup. The solution proposes to preserve 37 lines of marshrutka buses, which shall be served by the modern part of the current fleet of minibuses.

3.4 Example of suitable bus designs

3.4.1 Low floor design with 4 doors The possibility to use up to four side operation doors ensures rapid turnover of passengers at bus stops. Low floor level along the entire length of the bus with the height of 340 mm above the road is slightly disturbed by inclined course above the

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rear axle. The front windows with front columns allow more comfortable entrance through the front door.

The manufacturer offers variable arrangement of the interior in terms of the number of doors, seats and places for wheelchairs. Movement of passengers in the door compartment can be controlled by a scanning system from the driver´s seat due to safety reasons.

The design and construction of the axle allows passage of passengers without any steps to the lowered rear part of the vehicle with a platform for standing passengers in front of the last double-wing door. Drive-axle assembly is located in the left side of the rear overhang. V-six vertical engine, together with six-speed automatic gearbox ensures economic operation.

Overall view of 4 door low floor bus used in Prague (capital of the Czech Republic).

3.4.2 Low floor design with 3 doors and baggage storage above front wheel This design concept is characterized by a high level of comfort of passengers and drivers as well, larger capacity, convenient internal layout and profitability.

Smart, refined design with new lights and style creates a nice interior space. This new arrangement ensures comfort of the highest quality for both drivers and passengers with the best serviceability of the vehicle.

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Overall view of the 3 door low floor bus with baggage storage above front wheel.

3.4.3 Low floor design with 3 doors and seats above front wheels These fully low-floor types have reinforced structure which enables service in the toughest road and climate conditions.

The buses are driven by modern, durable and economical diesel engines that meet current environmental requirements. The interior is spacious, quiet and neatly designed, with step-free aisles that ensure a safe and comfortable journey.

Overall view of a 3 door low floor bus with seats above front wheel.

3.4.4 Low entry design with 3 doors Low entry design is well thought-out method of construction which results in a very low weight with the major benefits such as considerably lower fuel consumption and lower maintenance costs. This can result in savings of 10 to 20% compared with conventional buses, mainly due to the fuel consumption.

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The low-floor construction at the entry and exit doors ensures the best possible accessibility for wheelchair users and passengers with baby carriages. This accessibility is enhanced even more because there are no steps between the front and middle doors.

Overall view of a 3 door low entry bus.

Due to poor condition of roads in some parts of the outlined network, the low-entry bus is very suitable for operation in Khujand City. The low-entry variant offers more comfort for passengers on rough roads, as well as generally higher seating capacity which is also desirable on roads with substantial defects.

3.5 Procurement strategy

3.5.1 Taxes and custom duties The import, which is financed by official grant or loan, is in accordance with the resolution of government 479/1997 exempted from duties and VAT.

The custom clearance is only charged by administration fees in accordance of value of imported goods, approximately:

o 50 USD for import till 50 000 USD o 70 USD for import till 100 000 USD o 150 USD for import till 1 000 000 USD o 4500 USD for import more than 1 000 000 USD

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3.5.2 Tendering process The procurement of buses has to follow EBRD procurement rules. Open one-stage tendering is a preferred option in this case. Below is an indicative time frame for the tendering process:

Start of preparation of the tender documents T

Publication of tender T+6 weeks

Deadline for additional questions and comments by the tenderers T+8 weeks

Deadline for submitting offers T+12 weeks

Selection of winning tenderer T+14 weeks

Delivery of the 1st batch of buses* T+27 weeks

Delivery of the final batch of buses T+78 weeks

* based on the batch size

It is crucial to set up desirable delivery schedule for the buses in the tender. Considering the buses will be off-the-shelf products with limited customization requirements, the manufacturers are able to deliver roughly 20 buses each 3 months with some extra time for the first batch.

3.5.3 Budget and additional services The tender should include additional services to be procured along with the buses. The services should include the minimum of two trainings – one for drivers, and one for the maintenance staff. Such trainings shall be held both in the premises of the manufacturer (for the maintenance staff), and subsequently on site.

In addition, procurement of initial maintenance of the buses by the manufacturer is recommended. This period shall be in duration of 1-2 years or corresponding number of km. Such service ensures smooth learning process for the client, and minimizes the risk of substantial shortening of operation life due to misuse or poor maintenance by inexperienced personnel. During this period, all spare parts and consumables that have to be replaced shall be covered by the manufacturer. The tender shall also include procurement of basic set of spare parts.

Given the average price for a standard 12m diesel engine city bus is varying between 180,000 – 200,000 EUR (in large batches), and when including the above mentioned services, spare parts and minor customizations (paintings, seats, ticketing system etc.), the client shall be prepared to allocate approx. 20-25 mil. EUR for the tender itself. Additional resources will be required for the periodical maintenance. Detailed financial analysis is subject of the Report 6 – Financial Model.

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4 Depot facilities

4.1 Introduction The subject of this report is proposal of a design solution and equipment of the bus depot in the city of Khujand. The bus depot is intended to meet needs of operation, maintenance and parking of approximately 100 buses.

This requires constructing a dispatch building, a gas station, a hall for light repairs, a hall for heavy repairs, two washing buildings and an administrative building for management, and establish areas for idle parking of buses and parking of cars of employees.

According to information provided by authorities of the city of Khujand, a specific location of the future bus depot has not been determined so far and there is still a possibility of general reconstruction of the existing trolleybus depot.

Currently, one public transport depot is already functioning in the city and it is owned by a private carrier. It serves to parking and maintenance of a substantial part of the fleet of minibuses (marshrutkas), which daily operate on regular lines in the streets of Khujand and its surroundings.

4.2 Probable location of new bus depot Locations available for placement of the future bus depot:

1 Former trolley bus depot;

2 The available space for new bus depot and overnight parking;

3 The available space for new bus depot - North;

4 The available space for new bus depot - West;

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During the project duration the area no. 4 was assessed as a non-suitable place for new bus depot by the municipality of Khujand because of the future building of new bus terminal there.

All locations available (intended) for the future bus depot are connected to the proposed network of bus lines. At least one bus line is either passing by or terminated in the very proximity of each location.

Because all the locations are connected to the bus line network, no empty mileage will be need in any case, if smart diversion of bus lines is used during start and the end of daily operations. Buses heading to the depot riding on a bus line which does not pass by the depot will at some convenient point divert to a bus line which does. This diversion can be particularly easy shown to the passengers if the busses will use electronic information system with screens. However, this can be done just as easy by exchangeable hard copy number signs used in Khujand recently.

The only difference between the locations is then in number of lines which will have to divert in order to reach the depot. Each diversion brings administrative burden to the operator in order to prepare customized time schedules and vehicle circulation organization for each diversion.

Main information about proposed locations of new depot is available in part 7 - Environmental and Social Analysis.

4.3 Technical facilities FACILITY ESTIMATED DIMENSIONS Dispatch building 6 x 14 x 3 m Bus parking area 150 x 50 m

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Gas station 6 x 17 x 3 m Building of the supporting vehicle fleet 10 x 12 x 5 m Parking places for employees 30 x 90 m Routine maintenance building 17 x 66 x 5 m Wash unit building 10 x 25 x 5 m Heavy maintenance building 35 x 75 x 5 m Chassis wash unit 5 x 23 x 5 m Administration building 21 x 15 x 3 m

4.4 Human resources The new depot of Khujand shall employ approximately 380 employees; 255 drivers 5 medical staffs and 120 technical-economical and administrative employees. The general ratio between individual employment groups can be estimated as: 40% of the administrative staff, 60% of the technical-economic staff.

The structure of the depot, which itself fulfils all the activities (including operation of a fuel filling station) without using outsourcing for any of them, is shown on the following figure.

Organisational structure of the depot

Directorate

Secretatriat

Department of Economic Technical traffic department department management

Chief garage Accounting office Dispatchers Statistics supervisor

Human resources Chief foreman Drivers and payroll unit

Facility Gas station management

Occupation health and Warehouse safety, Medical service

Complaint

4.4.1 Responsibility of individual depot employee professions The depot is managed by the director with the heads of individual departments, i.e. the economic, technical and traffic management departments. The directorate includes the secretariat of the director. The director is in charge of relations with the general directorate of the public transport company and coordination of activities of all centres in the depot.

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The economic deputy director is in charge of the financial accounting, payroll, treasury, billing for services, sale of fuels provided by the depot to third parties, administration of trade of tickets, which drivers sell on bus lines, warehouse management of spare parts, fuel and lubricants. Direct subordinates of the economic deputy director is the head of the financial accounting department, the head of human resources and payroll department, the head of the gas station and the head of the warehouse. These heads manage further regular staff.

The technical director is in charge of the vehicle fleet and operation of workshops in the depot. His direct subordinates are chief garage supervisors, the chief foreman and other staff in specific positions. The chief garage supervisor is in charge of the vehicle fleet and registration of traffic accidents. His direct subordinates are daily and shift garage supervisors. The daily garage supervisor is in charge of utilization of the vehicle fleet – i.e., prepares daily schedules of vehicles at each bus line. His competences include ensuring regular maintenance and checks of vehicles before each operation and also according to travelled mileage, controlling functionality of radio stations, providing GO of vehicles and coordinating transport of vehicles to repair workshops. Handling of movements of vehicles is ensured by daily handling drivers. These workers are shared with the chief garage supervisor.

Shift garage supervisors are in charge of immediate technical condition of vehicles on a route and their replacement in the event of failures. The garage supervisors are provided with shift handling drivers who ensure replacement of buses on a route, towing of immobile buses and operating movement of vehicles as needed. The chief foreman is responsible for operation of a workshop and quality of workshop repairs. His direct subordinates are daily foremen.

Daily foremen assign repairs of vehicles according to requirements of drivers, and capacity and capabilities of individual workshops. Their direct subordinates are supervisors of individual workshops – electricians, engine experts, operational control, metal workers etc.

A specific group of workers is the so-called "bench", whose working time is continuous. Composition of this group represents all the basic workshop professions in order to be able to handle emergency repairs of buses outside the regular working hours of the workshops.

Workers with a specific scope of work directly subordinate to the technical deputy director. It is the worker administrating the building, who is in charge of maintenance, boiler room and cleaning, maid service, the technician for occupational health and safety, and the claims technician, who is in charge of complaints on the merits of spare parts, buses, etc. The medical staffs are responsible for medical checking of drivers before leaving the depot. The estimated time of the medical checking is 10 minutes. The driver is asked for medical obstacles, use of drugs and alcohol, the blood pressure is measured and all results are registered.

The head of traffic management is in charge of transportation of passengers, and the direct subordinates are shift dispatchers, daily dispatchers and the statistician.

Daily depot dispatchers carry out scheduling of shifts of drivers – i.e. who and when shall drive on individual bus lines, plan of vacations, diagramming of drivers and shift dispatchers, control of safety breaks between shifts, overtime hours and mandatory

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training of drivers. The depot dispatchers are not the same dispatchers in clearing centre that are responsible for the operation of the traffic and critical situations.

Shift dispatchers are in charge of dispatching individual vehicles on a route and checking their return, taking turns of drivers on individual bus lines, and work of their subordinates – handlers carrying out supporting administrative work in the despatch office – such as preparing their driving reports.

The statistician is in charge of calculations of plan fulfilment and quantification of deviations – this serves as a basis for invoicing travelled kilometres.

The immediate superiors of drivers are shift dispatchers, sometimes they deal directly with the head of traffic management.

4.5 Price estimation of the new depot investment The price estimation of the investment depends on the location chosen for implementation of construction of the new depot and also on dispositions of the space, which has the impact on the area needed as paved surfaces and roads. Finally, the volume of investments also depends on requirements of local authorities in terms of equipment of the depot, used technologies and their quantity.

The following prices listed in this price estimate are very approximate and are based on current common construction prices in Tajikistan. The equipment prices are relevant to European manufacturers’ business offers. The currency rate EUR/USD = 1.0573 as on 13th of April 2015.

4.5.1 Construction costs

4.5.1.1 Total estimated cost of total reconstruction of former trolley bus depot (location no. 1) Review of total estimated construction costs Estimated cost of demolition and 250,000 EUR (264,325 USD) extraction works Dispatch building 21,000 EUR (22,203 USD) Bus parking area 240,000EUR (253,752 USD) Gas station 63,240EUR (66,864 USD) Building of the supporting vehicle fleet 38,400 EUR (40,600 USD) Parking places for employees 86,400 EUR (91,351 USD) Routine maintenance building 392,700 EUR (415,202 USD) Wash unit building 82,500 EUR (87,227 USD) Heavy maintenance building 866,250 EUR (915,886 USD) Chassis wash unit building 36,800 EUR (38,909 USD) New Administration building 291,975 EUR (308,705 USD) Other paved and non-paved surfaces 296,000 EUR (312,961 USD) Utility networks 100,000 EUR (105,730 USD) Total estimated costs 2,765,265 EUR (2,923,716 USD)

4.5.1.2 Total estimated construction costs of new bus depot build on location no. 2 (administrative building will be reconstructed only) Review of total estimated construction and reconstruction costs Dispatch building 21,000 EUR (22,203 USD)

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Bus parking area 240,000EUR (253,752 USD) Gas station 63,240EUR (66,864 USD) Building of the supporting vehicle fleet 38,400 EUR (40,600 USD) Parking places for employees 86,400 EUR (91,351 USD) Routine maintenance building 392,700 EUR (415,202 USD) Wash unit building 82,500 EUR (87,227 USD) Heavy maintenance building 866,250 EUR (915,886 USD) Chassis wash unit building 36,800 EUR (38,909 USD) Reconstruction of current administration 55,600 EUR (58,785 USD) building Other paved and non-paved surfaces 296,000 EUR (312,961 USD) Utility networks 100,000 EUR (105,730 USD) Total estimated costs 2,278,890 EUR (2,409,472 USD)

4.5.1.3 Total estimated construction costs of new bus depot build on a green field (location no. 3) Review of total estimated construction costs Dispatch building 21,000 EUR (22,203 USD) Bus parking area 240,000EUR (253,752 USD) Gas station 63,240EUR (66,864 USD) Building of the supporting vehicle fleet 38,400 EUR (40,600 USD) Parking places for employees 86,400 EUR (91,351 USD) Routine maintenance building 392,700 EUR (415,202 USD) Wash unit building 82,500 EUR (87,227 USD) Heavy maintenance building 866,250 EUR (915,886 USD) Chassis wash unit building 36,800 EUR (38,909 USD) New Administration building 291,975 EUR (308,705 USD) Other paved and non-paved surfaces 296,000 EUR (312,961 USD) Utility networks 100,000 EUR (105,730 USD) Total estimated costs 2,515,265 EUR (2,659,390 USD)

4.5.2 Equipment costs Review of total estimated equipment costs Routine maintenance equipment 456,611EUR (482,775 USD) Wash and clean station equipment 224,996 EUR (237,888 USD) Heavy maintenance equipment 272,393 EUR (288,001 USD) Equipment of the chassis wash unit 117,857 EUR (124,610 USD) Administration building 12,000 EUR (12,688 USD) Equipment of the fleet support building 160,713 EUR (169,922 USD) Total estimated costs 1,244,572 EUR (1,315,884 USD)

4.5.3 Total estimated investment costs The total costs of the investment include construction costs, equipment costs. These costs do not include costs for maintenance management system for a specific variant and operation of the premises and maintenance of relevant buses.

Total estimated cost of total 4,009,837 EUR (4,239,601 USD) reconstruction of former trolley bus depot (location no. 1) Total estimated costs of new bus depot 3,523,462 EUR (3,725,356 USD) build on location no. 2 (administrative building will be reconstructed only) Total estimated costs of new bus depot 3,759,837 EUR (3,975,275 USD) build on a green field (location no. 3)

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4.6 Estimation of operating costs

4.6.1 Labour costs ANNUAL LABOUR COSTS 380 employees with a monthly salary of 3,876,000 TJS (606,206 EUR) (640,942 850 TJS USD)

4.6.2 Costs of maintenance and spare parts Costs of spare parts are calculated for maintenance and repair of a fleet with 100 buses, which operation is considered for 15 years.

The estimated annual maintenance and spare parts costs are 5% of the purchase price of the buses.

ANNUAL COSTS OF MAINTENANCE AND SPARE PARTS Estimated annual costs of maintenance 900,000 – 1,200,000 EUR (951,570 – and spare parts 1,268,760)

4.6.3 Costs of energy and media

4.6.3.1 Heating Based on the area of all building in the depot, it is possible to roughly estimate the probable heat consumption. Technical facilities are considered to have the ceiling 5 m high, administrative 3 m. The efficiency of the heat source was considered 80 %, which is achievable by modern boilers for both, natural gas or black coal. Taking into account the climatic condition of Khujand, the estimated yearly consumption of heat is about 600 to 700 MWh.

4.6.3.2 Electricity consumption Based on the wattage of each operation unit, the total wattage of the depot (in extend as recommended above) would be about 550 – 650 kW. Each operation unit is expected to have very different power consumption though. For example the routine maintenance unit will operate in two shifts, while the heavy maintenance unit only in one and so on. The resulting consumption is then also very much dependent on extend and regularity of the maintenance and other services as well as the reliability of the power supply. Based on the best practise experience, the total consumption of electric energy might be between 500 – 1,000 MWh per year.

4.6.3.3 Water consumption Based on the water consumption of each washing units (bodywork car wash and chassis washing unit), recommended regularity of washing and number of employees (taking into consideration their personal water consumption), it is possible to estimate the yearly water consumption. This is estimated to be within the range of 10,000 to 13,000 m3 per year.

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4.7 Decision maker summary Three available locations for new bus depot were assessed based on the available space, its disposition, space for further potential development, proximity to residential areas, connection to the planned bus service lines and last but not least the estimated investment costs.

All three locations have past the minimum threshold of 23 000 square meters of available space.

The available locations were compared with each other according to the latter five criteria. Locations were scored 1 being the best and 3 being the worst from the point of view of each particular criterion. The three possible locations were then put into a matrix showing the total score of each location.

Location no. 1 Location no. 2 Location no. 3

Disposition 3 2 1 Possibility of further 3 2 1 future development Proximity of 3 2 1 residential areas Connection to the bus 1 2 3 line network Investment costs 3 1 2 TOTAL 13 9 8

All the criteria in the above matrix have no specific weights; in other words, at this point are the investment cost as important as disposition of the particular locations. In reality, this is not exactly true, the importance or weight of each criterion may differ. However, in reality it is very difficult to convert different criteria in one common unit (e.g. money) allowing the comparison of all criteria.

In the end, it is always a political decision to decide on the importance of all relevant criteria before the final evaluation can be done. The public shall be preferably involved in the process of determination of importance of the particular criteria.

From the expert point of view, it is clear that the best option for the location of the new bus depot is the Location no. 3.

4.8 Time schedule for implementation The proposal for construction of premises of a new depot is designed in 3 phases:

1. Preparatory phase of the project - Obtaining funds - Contracting suppliers

2. Construction of facilities required for operation and necessary maintenance of buses, including facilities for employees: - Dispatch building

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- Gas station for fuels - Hall for light repairs - Washer of vehicle bodies and interior cleaning - Hall for heavy repairs - Chassis washer - Building of the supporting vehicle fleet - Parking area for buses and required internal road network - Paved surfaces

3. Construction of the administrative part of the complex - Construction of the administrative building or its reconstruction (in case of construction taking place at the site no. 2) - Parking space for employees

For construction on the site at peak concurrent work periods, deployment of 60 construction workers is estimated in the strongest shift. Works will be carried out within two-shift working hours. There will be site equipment set up at the premises. This site equipment will be used for the phases 2 and 3. All the site equipment will be removed after completion of the construction. The selected building contractor may use contractor’s service base located outside the premises of construction.

Implementation phase Title Year of implementation

1 Preparatory phase of the 2016 project 2 Construction of facilities for 2017 - 2018 operation and maintenance of buses 3 Construction of 2018 administrative premises

4.8.1 Facilities and media required for construction - Connection of the construction site to the water mains; - Connection of the construction site to the sewer system; - Connection of the construction site to the electrical supply; - Exits and entrances to the construction site

4.8.2 Milestones in the approval process It will be necessary to make a tremendous effort to obtain many approvals during the above mentioned phases and even after them. This process can be divided in three basic stages:

I. Construction preparatory stage II. Construction + operation preparatory stage III. Operation stage

These approvals are not only bonded to the preparatory stage but due to monitoring also to construction and operational stage. Many actions and will have to be done as a precondition to obtain the approvals on the level of project management.

I. Construction preparatory stage - Establishment E&S unit

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- Establishment Project Implementation Unit - Conduction of EIA, baselines surveys - Obtaining permits, approvals - Completion of Land acquisition/contracting - Approval of Retrenchment plan - Approval of Monitoring and management plan

II. Construction + operation preparatory stage - Establishment of civil works supervision entity - Approval of HR Policy, recruitment, settlement of company - Approval of work health and safety management plan - Monitoring of impacts of the construction

III. Operation stage - Obtain final operation permit - Monitoring of impacts of the operation

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5 Basic Considerations on Changes in Fare Collection The present processing system consists in direct payment in cash to a driver or a conductor of the microbus. Tickets are not issued although the „Rules for the transportation of passengers, luggage and carryon by the in the Republic of Tajikistan” determine this.

The proposed modification of the transport service system from the dense network of frequently running low-capacity vehicles called “marshrutkas” to the system of backbone capacity lines added with service for peripheries using microbus lines has several consequences:

 The number of enforced transfers will be substantially increased;  To prevent an unacceptable increase in passenger costs for urban mass transportation, it is necessary to solve the tariff;  Sale of tickets at the driver would excessively extend the time for passenger entering the capacity vehicle;  It is necessary to establish the clearing centre;  The costs for production and distribution of tickets and for allocation of revenues will incur;  The number of required drivers will decrease;  The number of required marshrutkas will decrease;  It will be possible to consider the fare reduction (loyalty) system.

Upon introduction of large multi-door buses, the current fare collection system is inapplicable. Preservation of the system would be possible by introduction of conductors in vehicles at the expense of an increase in personnel costs. Furthermore, this is an archaic method of solution that was given up in Europe 40 years ago. For further progress, we set the basic conditions that will have to be fulfilled by the new passenger processing system:

 If possible, the fare will not be substantially increased;  The system must not restrict access of persons interested in transport;  It must not discriminate any carriers;  The system must be understandable (customer friendly).

5.1 Analysis of the Current State and Basic Considerations on Changes in Fare Collection The present processing system consists of direct payment in cash to a driver or a conductor in the microbus. Tickets are not issued although the „Rules for the transportation of passengers, luggage and carryon by the road transport in the Republic of Tajikistan“ determine this. The fare inside of the city is 1 TJS, for the journey to outside of the city the fare is 1.6 TJS including 18 % of VAT.

The city administration introduces the new system of urban mass transportation for the reasons of increasing traffic volume on the main roads of the city (above all the Lenin's prospectus), and decreasing the environmental load of the city transport. This is connected with the necessity to control the system more effectively, and while using suitable processing technologies, it provides a tool for improvement in the quality of inspection and control of the entire public transport system - thus for controlling. The new processing system shall essentially remove operation with cash money in vehicles of the public transport which will lead to quicker passenger processing, control of revenues, and prevention of evasion of fare payment. The city is aware of the

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necessity to subsidize the new urban transport system; however, the processing system will provide relatively accurate data on loads of individual lines, thereby for allocation of costs and subsidies for individual carriers. Depending on how the city will respect environmental and other contributions and on its willingness to subsidize the urban mass transportation system, a fare for travelling public will develop.

This change will bring an increased number of transfers for passengers as well as the necessity to change the access to the urban mass transportation – thus a lower frequency of vehicle runs for individual lines. However, as a result, it should bring faster travelling for passengers throughout the city as well as to adjacent locations. (Vehicles have to follow the determined schedule which is one of the quality indicators; thereby waiting for vehicle filling with passengers will not take place at many stops in the city center or at other stops important from the transport point of view).

The new system represents a fundamental change for carriers. They will have to redirect themselves from the currently existing fight for passengers to provision of good-quality services within the framework of the determined schedule and determined standards. Carriers will no more receive revenues by collecting from passengers but as payments for provided transport services – in practice for provided vehicle kilometers according to the criteria indicated above. The carriers will receive these payments from the clearing center.

It is possible to manage the public transport system by many ways. The decision depends on current situation, cultural traditions and acceptance by the inhabitants.

The system should be clear for users and should be fair for all stakeholders.

In the current situation the people in Khujand are travelling for a cash payment without any tickets, even though the tickets are required in relevant legislation. Back in the time of the tickets were used, but later on they were abandoned.

Currently it is necessary to introduce a custom to have a valid ticket for the journey by public transport.

The current system practically does not require transfers between vehicles. The new system has to show, that the change of a vehicle during one journey could be less comfortable, but could be faster and could offer other advantages. The payment for each use of a vehicle could be too expensive for passengers, and such use of public transport in the new system would not be accepted. Therefore we chose the model with prepaid time tickets within zones to ensure that the cost of transfer is not too high for the passengers.

These are the main reasons why this model was chosen. Of course the system has its advantages and disadvantages as well.

5.2 Legislative Analysis of the Current State of Fare Collection in Khujand City During the existing situation, when tickets are not issued, it is impossible to provide reductions for children at the age from 5 to 12, with payment of 50% of the ticket price, as imposed by the transport law of the Republic of Tajikistan in Article 17. If tickets are not used, the right to be compensated for the carrier's loss cannot be proved in any way and thus it cannot be enforced.

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The Rules for the transportation of passengers, luggage and carryon by the road transport in the Republic of Tajikistan in chapter X, points 120 - 122, specify issuance of a one-time control ticket to a passenger containing the following information:

 series and number;  type of ticket;  name of locality;  cost for journey;  year of ticket issue.

The one-time control ticket is only valid for journey along one route in the same direction, regardless of distance covered by a passenger.

5.3 Draft Design for Fare Collection in Khujand City

5.3.1 Draft of the future public transport system  On the top of the system is the Khujand city administration together with administrations of other cities involved in the system.

 Public administration should create the Management Centre for Public Transport in Khujand to manage the entire public transport system. This legal body would be owned by public authority (authorities). Public authorities should sign a mandatory agreement with this Management Centre (in Russian: “Dogovor poruchenia”) according the second part of Civil Code (Nr. 885 from December 11, 1999 – §§ 912 -920).

 Public owned Bus enterprise (former Trolleybus Khujand) should provide transport services according to Public services contract with Management Centre for Public Transport in Khujand.

 Private companies should provide transport services following tendering procedure based on Public services contact with Management Centre for Public Transport in Khujand. One of the tendering conditions is entering into the system and have the necessary equipment for it.

 Public services contract will set up the obligations of the operators (services quality standards, equipment for the ticketing, reimbursement of dispatch services etc.), and the obligation of the Management Centre to pay the operators for the services provided. This contract will set up many other details of the provided services, controls etc.

The Management Centre for Public Transport in Khujand on behalf of the city of Khujand (and other cities involved in the system) will set a tariff according the public contract rules set in the first part of the Civil code (§§ 458, 459; Nr. 803 from June 30, 1999). The penalty for a journey without a valid ticket will be also determined. This shall give the inspectors of this Centre the right to collect the penalties.

The Management Centre for Public Transport in Khujand will issue and sell the tickets, and thus be able to determine how many tickets were sold for reduced price. Based on these figures, the Management Centre will be able to ask the city (cities) for the remuneration of the sales according the Tajik law. For the providers of transport services it is not a question, because they receive payments for service provided in requested quality by the Management Centre for Public Transport in Khujand.

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According to the Civil Code, transport service provider has a right to obtain a subsidy from relevant budget in case that the tariff set by the relevant authority does not cover its expenses of providing the services (as it is mentioned above). In the proposed system, it will be the duty of the Management Centre for Public Transport in Khujand.

5.3.2 Fare We recommend realising the fare payment in the Khujand City by means of prepaid transfer tickets in the zone-time tariff for a single journey as well as tickets with an extended time limit of validity (e.g. day, week, month, etc.). The passenger shall be obliged to buy a ticket through advance sale and have it at disposal throughout the transport. Upon a control, passenger without a valid ticket shall pay a fine in the amount determined by the City Council.

Rules for the transportation of passengers, luggage and carryon by the road transport in the Republic of Tajikistan enable advance sale of tickets (in suburban and intercity ) as well as advance sale of time tickets for multiple journeys (in city transport). The transport system in the Khujand City is a system containing several administrative territories that create a single relatively organic whole, i.e. from the point of view of the transport system. Thus, in accordance with a spirit of these Regulations and referring to Article 127, it is possible to propose the following ticket types sold in advance:

o Prepaid time ticket for a single journey for determined time of journey. o Prepaid time ticket for multiple journeys for 24 hours. o Prepaid time ticket for multiple journeys for 1 week (7 days). o Prepaid time ticket for multiple journeys for 1 month.

The proposed prepaid ticket for one journey is not fully in accordance with the Rules for the transportation of passengers, luggage and carryon by the road transport in the Republic of Tajikistan. In current situation, it would be necessary to discuss with the Ministry of Transport about slight change or exception. However, it is possible to mention that according to the draft of the Transport Code tickets for a period are possible without determination of the number of journeys.

5.3.3 Reduced fare

The right for reduced fare According to the law children under 5 years of age are entitled to travel without fare when travelling together with their parents (or other adult) and without the right for their own seat.

According to the same law children from 5 to 12 years of age are entitled to travel for half of the regular fare.

The law entitles other authorities to proclaim other groups to use the public transport with reduced fare.

In Tajikistan there are following groups:

- Handicapped persons,

- Veterans of the World War II (Big Patriotic War),

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- Heroes of the Soviet Union,

- Veterans of other wars, including the war in Afghanistan,

- Army servants,

- People engaged into liquidation of Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Crash,

- Servants of other forced bodies and law defending bodies (prosecution) by fulfilling their duties,

- Tax bodies employees,

- Members of both houses of the Parliament

- Others.

These groups are entitled according various law documents, some of them even by constitutional laws (MP-s and prosecution servants).

Levels of reduced fare In the proposed system there is only one type of reduction – 50 % of regular fare. Practically there is also a 100 % reduction – for children below 5 years of age.

The groups mentioned above are entitled to use public transport free of charge.

Authentication of the reduced fare Each traveler in the proposed system is obliged to have a valid ticket during the time of a journey. This refers to one of tickets proposed in the tariff section – for full price, or reduced. In case of reduced ticket use, he/she must have a valid certificate for fare reduction use - a card issued by entitled body. In case of use of electronic card ticket, this authentication should be incorporated in the card.

The MP-s, prosecution servants, army servants and other law defending bodies are entitled to use public transport on base of their certificate of duty. According to the spirit of the law system it is unacceptable to force these persons to carry another document for travelling by public transportation.

Other groups (invalids, heroes of the Soviet Union, veterans and Chernobyl power plant crash workers) living in Khujand (or often using the public transport system in Khujand) will be equipped by an electronic card valid for the entire system. Their obligation will be only to validate the card each month (without this electronic validation the title of travel is not valid).

The members of those groups not living in Khujand could use the public transport at least for two weeks on certificate base. For longer use the electronic card as for those people living in Khujand (under the same conditions) will be required.

5.3.4 Remuneration of reduced fare Each reduced ticket sold is remunerated by the relevant authority. The Public transport management center for Khujand is issuing the tickets, knows the number of tickets sold and can provide to the relevant authority the data needed for the remuneration. Elimination of abuse of reduced tickets is one of the controllers’ tasks.

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In case of electronic card, the validation for each month is a signal for the payment from the public budget. The payment should be set at the level of 1 zone for 1 month full price for each validated card. The card is valid for the entire system, but the holder will probably not travel across all zones every day.

Remuneration of the fare for the group of people entitled to use public transport free of charge based on their duty (MP-s, prosecution, army servants etc.) should be negotiated between the Public transport management center and Khujand city authority. The main parameters should be the number of those persons and average use of the public transport system by them.

5.4 Tariff For structure of the zone-time tariff, it is necessary to divide the Khujand City territory and its surroundings into zones. A proposal for such division is shown in the following figure.

Proposal for division of the Khujand City and its surroundings into zones

5.4.1 The lines coming in the tariff system The proposed bus lines and marshrutka city lines (according the report on task 2) will enter into the proposed tariff system. The remaining marshrutka lines will operate as regional lines according to the head X. and XI. of the Rules for the transportation of passengers, luggage and carryon by the road transport in the Republic of Tajikistan.

Entering marshrutka city lines:

20 13th micro region - Sartukai 21 3rd micro region – Galamaidon

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22 Yova – Kakhorova Street 23 Soicha – Unji 24 Galamaidon – 13th micro region 25 Razok – Rumon 26 Pachtakor – Goziyon 27 Sardarinskyi Settlement – Khujand Airport 28 Somon-market – Kvartal Zaozjornyi (Chkalovsk) 29 Pulichukur – Goziyon 30 Chkalov (construction materials market) – Unji 31 Pulichukur – Hospital Nr.2 32 Unji – Abreshim terminal 33 12th micro region – 27th micro region 34 Rumon – Soicha 35 Syrdarinskyi Settlement – Gafurov 36 27th micro region – 34th micro region 37 34th micro region – 34th micro region (circular line) 38 Gafurov – Turbaza 39 27th micro region – 27th micro region (circular line) 40 Hospital Nr. 2 - Unji 41 Sardarinskyi Settlement – Kvartal Zaoziornyi (Chkalov) 42 Gafurov – Syrdarinskiy settlement 43 Abreshim terminal – 27th micro region

Regional marshrutka lines

44 Galamaidon – Proletarsk 45 Galamaidon – Nov 46 Abreshim terminal – Samgar 47 Gafurov – Izos 48 Gafurov– Internacional 49 Abreshim terminal – Palos 50 Kuibishev – Abreshim terminal 51 Gafurov – Histevarz 52 Abreshim terminal – Kuibishev 53 Gafurov – Chigdalik 54 Gafurov – Katagan 55 Gafurov – Histevarz – Katagan 56 Galamaidon – Proletarsk

Regional marshrutka lines could be introduced in the system in a later stage after successful introducing of the proposed tariff system. For integration of those lines, the zones served by those lines in the area should be set up.

Total of 222 vehicles (255 vehicles with 15 % of reserve) will operate the city marshrutka lines. These 255 vehicles must be equipped with the on-board computer and tickets validator.

5.4.2 Proposal for the tariff structure A single journey fare is valid for given time and number of zones covered, from the moment of ticket marking in a vehicle with unlimited number of transfers. Fare reduction for children at the age from 5 to 12, with payment of 50% of the basic ticket price, is imposed by the Transport Law of the Republic of Tajikistan. Other groups of passengers and corresponding reductions are determined by the City Council.

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5.4.2.1 Fares for individual journeys are proposed in TJS below. The proposal mentioned gives insight into relation of individual fares, and the proposal for the fare amount shall be brought in further to the economic assessment as well as the possibilities of the city budget to subsidize the city transport system. Fares for individual journeys are proposed as below. Fare for individual journeys

FARE 1 zone / 45 min. 2 zones / 70 min. 3 zones / 100 min. Basic 1.2 TJS. 2.16 TJS 3.12 TJS. Reduced 0.6 TJS. 1.08 TJS. 1.56 TJS.

Fare valid for 24 hours

FARE 1 zone 2 zones 3 zones Basic 3.6 TJS. 6.48 TJS. 9.36 TJS. Reduced 1.8 TJS. 3.24 TJS. 4.68 TJS.

The value of an advantageous ticket, valid for 24 hours after having been marked in the vehicle, corresponds to three individual tickets but a passenger can do multiple journeys with unlimited transfers within the zones paid.

Fare valid for 7 days after ticket has been marked in the vehicle or for calendar week

FARE 1 zone 2 zones 3 zones Basic 18.0 TJS. 32.4 TJS. 46.8 TJS. Reduced 9 TJS. 16.2 TJS. 23.4 TJS.

The value of an advantageous ticket for 7 days (week) corresponds to five one-day tickets within the zones paid but a passenger can do multiple journeys within the zones paid including off days with unlimited transfers.

Fare valid for 30 days after ticket has been marked in the vehicle or for calendar month

FARE 1 zone 2 zones 3 zones Basic 48 TJS. 86.4 TJS. 128.8 TJS. Reduced 24 TJS. 43.2 TJS. 64.4 TJS.

The value of an advantageous ticket for a month (30 days) corresponds to forty individual tickets within the zones paid but a passenger can do multiple journeys within the zones paid including off days with unlimited transfers.

The mentioned tickets with an extended time validity motivate owners not to use other modes of transport (own car, taxi, „black ”, etc.), thereby contribute to reduction of transport and ecological loads on the city as well as its surroundings. Benefits and reductions provided under the law or according to a decision of local authorities shall be paid from a respective budget in accordance with the laws of the Republic of Tajikistan.

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Maintenance of tariff discipline must be checked, which is a job of inspectors. Journey by a public transport vehicle without a valid ticket is fined according to the tariff. A fine is proposed in the amount of 60 TJS., thus fifty times the basic fare.

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5.5 Tickets and Their Distribution Ticket issuing must be handled centrally. Sale can be ensured through own points of sale, agreement with goods dealers in the vicinity of stops or through ticket-issuing machines; in case of electronic tickets for longer time periods, it is possible to use e- shops as well.

The own sales network, which would cover all the stops within the area being serviced, would be too expensive considering the price of tickets.1

As far as time tickets are concerned, it depends on the chosen technology. Paper time- tickets (time coupons to a card) can be sold correspondingly as individual tickets but such dense network of points of sale is not required. It will be necessary to sell electronic time tickets (recorded on a chip card) in the own network or through e-shop or automatic payment machines that are used in Tajikistan for other payments (mobile phone credits, water, electricity, etc.). It should be also possible to use these automatic machines for prospective sale of printed tickets (a ticket printed in the form of confirmation; it is necessary to introduce protective elements that will make forgery impossible). In case of electronic sale of tickets (e.g. via e-shop), a purchased ticket must be “uploaded” to the respective card at a contact point. As long as the existing system of dispatching control of transport continues with dispatchers at terminals, authorisation of these dispatchers to sale of tickets can be taken into consideration as well.

5.5.1 Printed paper tickets The above mentioned implies that an agreement with various shops in the vicinity of stops appears to be the most suitable for the sale of printed single journey paper tickets.

5.5.2 Ticket-issuing machines As mentioned above, the other possibility for single journey tickets is the installation of ticket-issuing machines at stops. We do not recommend this variant due to its expensiveness. Costs connected with this method of solution include not only investments in acquisition of the machines and electric connection but also operating costs for energy, consumables, collection of money, repairs and maintenance. This method of solution is also connected with an increased risk of attacks against these machines that contain cash money. This risk can be reduced by the possibility of paying with a pay card (then in the machine there is no cash money that can tempt thieves).

5.5.3 SMS tickets An advantageous method of solution, as a supplement of the offer, is the use of SMS tickets of a contractual mobile network operator. The SMS tickets do not have to be only for a single journey but they can also include tickets with an extended time limit of validity (e.g. day, week, month, etc.). The SMS tickets must be well protected against forgery. This method of solution is the least demanding from the organisational point of view but it is advantageous only if costs for an SMS ticket do not exceed costs for printed tickets or operation of the machines.

1 This is presented in detail in report 5 – Fares and ticket revenues (collection) system

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5.5.4 Prepaid tickets on non-contact chip card Non-contact chip cards can be used for tickets with an extended time limit of validity. Their introduction is connected with investment- and operating costs for assurance of the card life cycle.

These cards can serve for a number of functions in the city or the area serviced by the transport system the card is issued for. Considering that the card is personalized (issued by name and full identity), it can be used e.g. as a permit to city libraries or other communal services and in case of a connected function of electronic wallet, also as a means of (advantageous) purchase of tickets to selected museums or other cultural facilities. Those options are not a part of the project proposal. It is only a remark for possible optional more broad use of those cards. The involvement of a bank in case of electronic wallet will be necessary.

The non-contact card is a multifunctional smart card issued by the Management Centre for Public Transport in Khujand. The cards could be issued in two variants: as Anonymous or Personal. In the framework of this project it is proposed to issue only personal cards. The Management Centre for Public Transport in Khujand should be the owner of the cards. The card enables the holder to use the services accessible via card applications.

The holder is a natural person to whom, based on a request, the Personal card was issued. The rights and obligation of card use will be set up by public contract according to rules set in the first part of the Civil Code (§§ 458, 459; Nr. 803 from June 30, 1999). This matter should be incorporated into the tariff for the Khujand public transport area or dealt by a similar public contract dealing with the matter of smart cards use only.

Personal Card is issued upon written request of the Applicant. To print personal cards, personal data of the holder have to be provided. Such cards shall be available at the network of information centers or kiosks and selected shops. The applicant will pay a fee for the issue of the Card, and thus will receive the card directly at the issuing point by the showing the ID card (or equivalent document) and after passport photo is taken.

Example of similar card

5.5.5 Recommendation for Distribution of Tickets in Khujand The previous subchapter gives various possibilities, both organisational and technological, how distribution of tickets can be solved. In the first instance, we suggest the following system:

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a) Time prepaid tickets for a single journey for determined journey time – printed paper tickets, sale according to agreements in shops, at terminals (dispatchers). The supplementary possibility can be alternative sale of tickets at a driver at a prohibitive rate (1.5 times the price) or after security issue has been solved, also SMS tickets via mobile phone. b) Time prepaid tickets for several journeys for 24 hours and time prepaid tickets for several journeys for 1 week (7 days) in the printed- paper form or the electronic form on a chip card. Paper tickets would be sold correspondingly as single journey tickets – they would be valid after registration of surname, first name and patronymic of a passenger and after the ticket has been marked in a validator in a vehicle (beginning of ticket validity). Electronic tickets would be sold in the similar way as monthly tickets. c) Time prepaid tickets for several journeys for 1 month exclusively in the electronic form on a chip card – through the e-shop, in the managing organisation central office or through automatic payment machines (after agreement with their provider) – necessity of ticket uploading at a point of contact; validity from a determined moment (introduction in moment of sale).

As indicated above, it is necessary to choose the card so that it could be used for other purposes as well, and gradually extend the possibility of its use as indicated.

5.5.6 Options of ticket distribution in Khujand According to the TOR and the clarification of PL, a system with the use of modern elements – chip card was proposed. The system could of course run based on printed- paper tickets in all categories. The consultants did not intend to propose solely electronic ticketing system with respect to passengers which do not use the public transport system on daily basis.

The consultant also esteems that the change from current situation (free access to the public transport system by paying in cash in the vehicle) to no access without a prepaid card should be understood as fairly uncomfortable situation, mainly by visitors of the city.

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5.6 Approximate costs of the ticketing system Assumptions:

Number of journeys per year: 74 416 667

Approximate number of inhabitants in the area covered by the transport system

240 000

25 % of them will use the long time prepaid tickets – 60 000

These people will provide 40 % of journeys in the system

Printing costs of one ticket 0,02 USD

Printing of one pass 0,05 USD

Printing of one paper counterfoil 0,02 USD

Price of a chip card 2,00 USD

Average lifetime of pass or chip card 5 years

Costs of distribution 5 % of the ticket value

Number of counterfoils needed per year 60 000*12=720 000

Equipment for inspectors (chip card reader) 14 150,- USD

Per year: 14 150*0,2= 2 830 USD

Calculation of costs for proposed system per year:

Printing of tickets 74 416 667*0,6*0,02 839 000

Provision 14 081 736*0,6*0,05 422 452

Chip cards 60 000*2*0,2 24 000

Equipment for 14 150*0,2 2 830 inspectors

Total USD 1 342 282

Calculation of costs for paper tickets system per year:

Print of tickets 74 416 667*0,6*0,02 839 000

Provision 14 081 736*0,05 704 086

Print of passes 60 000*0,05*0,2 600

Print of counterfoils 720 000*0,2 14 400

Total USD 1 612 086

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Only the costs that will be different in each variant are used in the calculations. There is an assumption that the distribution costs of the electronic tickets will be close to none in comparison with the distribution of paper tickets and counterfoils. The paper prepaid tickets (monthly tickets) will consist of the pass with identification of the person, and the counterfoil for due period.

If the chip card system will be introduced, then the portion of journeys covered by chip card payment will increase, and the tickets distribution costs will diminish.

5.7 Processing System The processing system includes all the facilities related to sale, validation, inspection and processing of travel documents. The following figure shows the system scheme.

Data of tickets sold from all the points of sale are collected in the centre for inspection of financial flows. Data of marked individual as well as prepaid tickets are processed to monitor loads of individual lines and routes - statistics of journeys done (place, date, and time), number of tickets marked, as per fare type, time, and zone. This data serves for analysis of outputs of individual lines, monitoring of occupancy and load of individual routes.

The data will make it possible for the organisation to monitor occupancy of individual lines and pertinently according to statistics and outputs to react to passengers' needs but also carriers' needs within the framework of inspection and distribution of revenues in the system. The scheme below in detail shows the entire process from purchasing or charging of a ticket (its inspection as well as introduction into the system).

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.

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5.8 Distribution of Revenues Among Carriers – Clearing All the revenues from sale of tickets for determined time-period (week, month, etc.) should be collected on one bank account. These financial assets shall be distributed among carriers as per their portions in transport of passengers. In case that revenues allocated do not cover the carrier's stipulated costs for services provided, the City Council pays this difference. The given difference includes fare reductions and motivation of citizens for the use of public transport. A greater utilisation of the public transport will give rise to a corresponding increase in fluency of transport in the city as well as a decrease in environmental damage.

5.9 Ticket Inspection No regulations can function effectively without inspection of their observance.

The ticket inspection performs checks whether passengers have valid travel documents by using inspection facilities. The transport management organisation on behalf the authority of the city administration shall perform the inspection. In addition to travel documents of passengers, the inspectors of the management organisation should check observance of regulations and obligations stipulated in contracts with carriers. The inspector must have corresponding equipment for inspection of tickets on a chip card, and must be labelled in the prescribed way. The management organisation shall empower its employee to perform the inspection activity, and equip him/her with the prescribed label. It is advantageous to change these inspectors over time for reasons of a higher efficiency.

5.10 Information at Stops Proper functioning of the processing system also includes awareness of passengers. Thus, it is necessary to equip all the stops with information for passengers. This information must at least contain:

 Name of stop;  Numbers of lines serving the stop;  Valid schedules for all the lines serving the stop;  Schematic map of the public transport system;  Fare information;  Information on the passenger's obligation to have a valid ticket at disposal throughout the transport, and an amount of the fine when this obligation is breached.  In case that SMS tickets are used, instructions for ticket booking.

5.11 Institutional Infrastructure As mentioned above, as for the entire new system management, it is necessary to ensure several activities that have not been necessary so far or have been ensured in some other way, and their centralization appears to be suitable from the point of view of the system management and inspection.

These activities include the following:

 Issuance of tickets, their distribution and marketing

Tajikistan: Khujand Public Transport - Technical Due Diligence Page 64 (117)

 Card centre,  Inspection of tariff discipline of passengers – inspectors' activity  Collection of revenues, their allocation, and processing of data for a subsidy from public budgets – clearing  Administration of contracts with carriers  Transport dispatching control throughout the system

Although elaboration of design of such institution is not part of the TOR, provision of these activities has a key importance for the system function.

An independent legal entity owned by the city, several cities or cities together with carriers appears to be the most suitable (even though not the only possible) solution. The solution of the administrative authority is less suitable (some activities are beyond what administrative authorities usually deal with, and administrative authorities are not equipped with sufficient personnel capacity), and cooperation with one carrier is not suitable either (this organisation is to supervise all the carriers). From the operating point of view, we call this organisation “Management Centre for Public Transport in Khujand”.

As far as individual activities are concerned, the organisation shall perform the following:

 Issuance of tickets, their distribution and marketing

These are described above; marketing is necessary for communication with travelling public and includes, among others, basic information at stops as well as information on changes or modifications of the system.

 Card centre

This is described above sufficiently.

 Inspection of tariff discipline of passengers – inspectors' activity

After the rule: „journey in the public transport only with the valid ticket” has been established, it is necessary to „educate” travelling public, thus to perform intensive inspection of tariff discipline observance, above all at the beginning after introduction of the new processing system.

 Collection of revenues, their allocation, and processing of data for a subsidy from public budgets – clearing

In accordance with the central distribution of tickets, revenues are collected in one hand. It is necessary to allocate revenues to individual carriers for their transport services that these carriers provided in the system.

 Administration of contracts with carriers

From the scope of activities performed by this institution, this workplace has the closest access to all the data required for preparation, administration or modifications of contracts with individual carriers. Therefore, it should administrate contracts as well as prepare data for selection procedures for provision of services on individual lines. However, decision-making is up to the city administration.

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 Transport dispatching control throughout the system

The dispatching control of individual lines performed by carriers themselves has no sense for the city administration as a tool of inspection and operational control (e.g. an employee will not report to the transport and communication department that his/her employer sent fewer vehicles on the line than determined). Thus, it proves necessary to gather all the dispatchers under one „roof“, so that they are not dependent on individual carriers. This part represents neither a new activity nor additional costs in the system. In the future it would be suitable to introduce monitoring of the public transport vehicles through GPS centrally, which will result in savings of costs for work of field dispatchers at terminals and terminal stops. This solution will also provide operative overview of situation and data on observance of schedules as an auxiliary base for clearing of revenues.

The section of dispatchers can be financed by carriers' contributions to the dispatching control.

BASIC CONCEPT OF PERSONNEL: Organisation management 4 workers Issuance of tickets, their distribution and marketing 5 workers Card centre 4 workers Inspection of tariff discipline of passengers – inspectors' 20 workers activity Collection of revenues, their allocation, and processing of data 6 workers for a subsidy from public budgets – clearing

Administration of contracts with carriers 3 workers

Transport dispatching control throughout the system 63 workers

Internal provision of organisation 5 workers Total 92 workers

5.12 Framework of Investment and Operating Costs

5.12.1 Investment costs without VAT, custom duties and transport Unit price Total price Item No. of pieces EUR EUR Buses - on-board computer, 3 2 400 100 240 000 validators, Wi-Fi, GPS, installation Minibuses - on-board computer, 1 1 500 255 382 500 validator, Wi-Fi, GPS, installation SW Back office (Processing), Card 200 000 1 200 000 Centre and Client Centre Implementation of entire system 50 000 1 50 000 HW infrastructure (servers, etc.) 50 000 1 50 000 Equipment for inspectors 700 20 14 000 Total 936 500

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5.13 Operating costs Total price Item EUR / year Consumables 5 000 3 workers of City Council (economy, inspection) *) 4 790 47 workers of management organization (economy, IT, inspection, client center, card center) * 75 000

63 dispatchers financed by carriers' charges for dispatching 100 530 services *) Total (without dispatchers) 84 790 *) average salary 850 TJS (see Report on Task 4), exchange rate 6.3921 TJS per 1 EUR, no taxes and insurances included.

5.14 Conclusion This chapter represents a draft design and recommendations of some methods and procedures to be introduced within the fare revenue system.

1) Introduction of tariff with unlimited number of transfers during certain time (due to compensation of passengers for an increased number of transfers). 2) Removal of work with cash money from transport means (with the exception of alternative sale at the driver for a disadvantaged price). 3) Introduction of time tickets, which can also be of paper type, but the chip card after good preparation offers quite a number of additional possibilities as mentioned in text. 4) A fundamental change in the system management – transfer of the dispatching control under the „roof” independent from carriers, even though (partly) financed by them.

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6 Financial and Economic Appraisal of „Khujand Public Transport Project “

6.1 Options determining There are attainable basic options determining, used for the financial and economic appraisal purpose.

Do Investment alternative: Presupposes acceptance of the project and its following impacts on reality; its parameters are described generally in this document. The project has features of investment project as well as a regulation policy as it describes competences of regulator body, ticketing and checking system.

Do nothing (minimum) alternative: Serves in our evaluation as a comparator. It is the alternative reality in which the project is not implemented. It would be alternative with as few changes as possible, however still feasible. In this case we assume conservation of current (status quo) transport system based on private “minibuses” with current tariff (smaller than in do investment alternative) reflecting once in 5 year local inflation. In do nothing alternative this kind of transport still exist and it is reinvested and further operated.

Basic scenario main factors: We expect that following factors are independent on chosen alternative, but their evolution will affect the project (each alternative) results: demand for internal city , prices of inputs, currency exchange rates, and insurance and tax rates.

It means that the basic evaluation concept is, that there is the same quantity demanded (demand for transport) satisfied in both alternatives, just by different mode, which causes evaluated costs and benefits to vary. Some doubts about the same quantity demanded could emerge due to the fact that part of the solution is a change of the tariff (price of journey) in comparison with do nothing scenario. However, there is zero price elasticity of demand in the relevant interval expected in the model.

6.2 Methodological notes: Classification, quantification and monetizing of effects is based on standard incremental principal as there are compared do investment and do nothing options briefly defined above.

The systematic intervention into the procedures is a part of the evaluated project and hence we intentionally distinguished among financial impacts on Municipality budget, Public Provider Budget, Regulator budget and Private Providers budgets (In total - all private providers of minibuses). This separate investment, cost and revenues analysis is intentional to show what kind of effects results from increase or decrease of inputs consumption or output production, and which inflows and outflows are just a transfers. To show, how the decision would affect municipality and institutions “owned” by municipality, there is consolidated cash flow added. The Cash Flow analysis is conducted then solely from municipality owned institutions (municipality itself included) perspective. The reason is that not all mutual relationships among the

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subjects are already defined. It may affect some items like Income tax bases, but it depends on the municipality decision and is not necessary consequence of the option we are focused on.

Thanks to the fact that there are analysed mostly public bodies (municipality or municipality owned companies) and tax bases dependency on the total institution activities, there are for simplicity not analysed, nor included income tax effects in cash flow. Also the net working capital change effects aren’t analysed nor included in the model as they are not expected to change the results significantly. Cash flow of the project is than calculated as:

CFp = NOPAT + Depreciation – Investments - ΔNWC

All items are in increments (differences in between do nothing and do investment alternative)

NOPAT = Operating Revenues – Operating Costs – Depreciation (unaffected by grant) – Income Tax (Not affected by cost of financing and grant effect on depreciation) = EBIT * (1- T)

T – is income tax rate

Investments = Δ Fixed Assets Brutto (initial investments as well as reinvestments, or saved reinvestments)

There are of course added standard financial indicators as (FIRR) from consolidated municipality institutions perspective. That is counted as a standard internal rate on return from cash flow of the project (not affected by financing).

Most important output for evaluation in the context of submission is economic analysis.

Economic Flows are generally received from financial flows by adjusting them for all fiscal and other transfers within social members. Non-marketed goods (Externalities and public goods effects) not included in financial flows are just qualitatively classified. These items are not quantified and monetised so not included in monetary expressed economic flows, but they are taken into consideration in the final economic interpretation of results.

There are no adjustments for the other market distortions then explicit transfers and non-marketed goods as monopoly power, information asymmetry, which may cause some discrepancies between market prices of marketed items and shadow prices (accounting price ratios are then simply assumed as being equal to 1 as we have not attained local conversion factors for particular items).

Then there is attainable analysis of the optional Financing structure effect on the cost and revenues as well as on the cash flow from equity holder perspective.

CFE - Cash Flow to Equity under chosen way of Financing

CFE= EAT + Depreciation (Affected By Grant) – Investments (Affected by Grant) - ΔNWC + ΔDebt

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EAT = Operational Revenues – Operational Costs – Depreciation affected by grant – Cost of Financing (Fees and Interests) – Income Tax

FIRRE is then internal rate on return counted from CFE.

FNPVE is then internal rate on return counted from CFE under chosen re as discount rate estimate.

Both Economic as well as Financial Cash Flows are planned in nominal terms (affected by actual currency inflation rate), in current prices. So EIRR as well as FIRRp and

FIRRE is necessary to interpret in nominal term and to compare with nominal (inflation included) discount rates (both social discount rate and financial discount rates).

Basic Scenario Used for all alternatives in the financial and economic model:

Exchange rates used in real term planning:

Forecasts can be found in the sheet Assumptions. The assumptions directly linked to investments are quite specific so they are in separated sheet. The tax deductible rates of depreciation and real amortizing are distinguished there.

6.3 (Incremental) Effects classification:

6.3.1 Municipality: Investments:

 No investments are expected as a consequence of project acceptance

Operational Costs:

 Wages increase – increase of wages is caused by hiring 3 additional municipality officers  Increase of fiscal transfers (taxes and insurance) imposed on wages paid by employer is linked linearly to wages

Operational Revenues:

 Decrease of operational income from licences – income from licences is affected negatively because there are fewer transport providers paying licences under project alternative (54 licences not issued. The effect is negative incremental revenue.

6.3.2 Management Centre for Public Transport in Khujand (Regulator) Investments and reinvestments

 Purchases and repurchases of SW Back office Fare On (Processing), Card Centre and Client Centre  Implementation of the entire system  HW infrastructure - servers, etc.  Equipment for inspectors  Office Equipment

Operational Costs

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 Ticket production costs – mostly printing  Ticketing operational costs – tickets distributing costs – provision of distributors.  Tickets share of public provider – transfer of ticket revenues belong to public provider (4/5 of revenues from tickets sales net of ticketing costs and ticket production).  Tickets share of private providers – transfer of ticket revenues belong to private providers (1/5 of revenues from tickets sales net of ticketing costs and ticket production)  Wages increase - 47 additionally hired employees - economy, it, inspection, client centre, card centre, with average monthly wage  Wages increase - 63 dispatchers hired with average monthly wage  Insurance and taxes imposed on wages  Consumables  Rental costs (included rent and services)

Operational Revenues

 Charges for dispatching services – Equal to personal costs (wages + transfers) of 63 dispatchers, paid by private and public providers  Revenue from tickets – these revenues are afterwards transferred proportionally to public provider, private providers and distributors after covering production costs, proportionally to their share (see operational costs above).

6.3.3 State unitary enterprise "Khujand City Bus" (Publicly Owned Provider) Investments and reinvestments

 Buses (100 Buses in purchasing prices)  Bus - on- board computer  Depot building in Total  Depot Equipment in Total -Routine maintenance equipment, Heavy maintenance equipment and Equipment of the building supporting the fleet, Wash and clean station equipment, Equipment of the Chassis wash unit and Administration building equipment

Operational Costs

 Fuel Costs  Maintenance costs and spare parts  Wages (385 drivers and depot employees with average monthly wage)  Insurance and taxes imposed on wages  Dispatching services charges to regulator  Energy consumption  Water consumption  Heating consumption

Operational Revenues

 Revenue from tickets – represents share from tickets sales of the public buses provider

6.3.4 Private Providers (consolidated over all current private providers) Investments and reinvestments

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 Minibus - on -board computers, (1validator, Wi-Fi, GPS, installation) – additional computers which have to be bought by private providers under do project option for 255 minibuses used in the new system for in-city journeys.  Revenue from sales of current Minibuses not needed – under do project option private providers need fewer minibuses then under do nothing alternative. The purchasing price is so low thanks to the fact, that private minibuses providers mostly bought used vehicles.  Minibuses reinvestments savings – thanks to the project private providers will not operate 1000 minibuses so they would save reinvestments into the vehicles (within the planning period there is expected one reinvestment to total amount of vehicles with residual value 0 at the end of the plan.)

Operational Costs

 Saved wages – thanks to the project there are saved 2000 employees on the side of private providers of minibuses with average wage.  Saved insurance and taxes imposed on wages (linked to wages)  Saved maintenance of not needed minibuses  Saved Fuel Costs - saved fuel costs from not provided minibuses  Saved Licences payments to regulator (licence payments not needed thanks to cancelling 54 licences, see Municipality.  Dispatching services charges to regulator

Operational Revenues

As we assume that there is no change in total amount of journeys and hence total ticket sales, private providers would lose revenues, thanks to not providing 1000 minibuses. They will face increase of revenues thanks to price effect, but loss of revenue form not serving as big proportion of demanded quantity as in do nothing option.

6.3.5 Externalities and Public Goods In comparison with do minimum alternative, there is expected lower intensity of transport in do investment alternative. So the project should incrementally lead to:

 Air Pollution Effect – decrease of air pollution – affects all the city population (including third parties - not users of the transport system) – Positive Effect  Noise Pollution Effect – decrease of noise level – affects all the city population (including third parties - not users of the transport system) – Positive Effect  Water and Soil Pollution Effect – decrease of water and soil pollution effect – affects all the city population (including third parties - not users of the transport system) – Positive Effect  Safety Effect (Accidents decrease) – saved lives, injuries and property destruction – Positive Effect  Travel Time Savings – thanks to conjunction reduction saving average time of travellers spent in transport – Positive Effect  Decrease of Flexibility for Users – this effect is negative and is imposed just on users of the transport providers using a new lines system instead of previous mini- buses system, thanks to new necessity of lines shifts and not as frequent lines as in previous system. – Negative Effect

Mentioned effects are not quantified and monetised – just classified, and we may say that their total value would be socially positive.

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6.4 FA pro FIRR - Cash flow of the project analysis - not reflecting financing

Municipality owned institutions consolidated - incremental nominal cash flow of project in USD (In current prices) CF Item\Period Unit 2 016 2 017 2 018 2 019 2 020 2 021 2 022 2 023 2 024 2 025 2 026 2 027 2 028 2 029 2 030 EBITDA USD 3942305 3339310 2773799 2225922 1748419 6134203 5277479 4710601 3939097 3254051 6600439 6150117 5663420 5149659 4593524 0 Tax deductible depreciation without grant influence USD 3631050 3631050 3631050 3631050 3631050 3680025 2612905 478665 478665 478665 534429 534429 482500 430571 290351 419743 EBIT USD 311255 -291740 -857251 -1405127 -1882631 2454179 2664574 4231935 3460432 2775386 6066010 5615688 5180920 4719087 4303172 -419743 Income Tax Rate 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NOPAT = EBIT * (1-T) USD 236554 -224640 -660083 -1081948 -1449626 1889718 2051722 3258590 2664532 2137047 4670828 4324080 3989308 3633697 3313443 -323202 Tax deductible depreciation without grant influence USD 3631050 3631050 3631050 3631050 3631050 3680025 2612905 478665 478665 478665 534429 534429 482500 430571 290351 419743 Investments (Δ Fixed Assets ) USD 26106650 0 0 0 0 1173694 0 0 0 0 1295853 0 0 0 0 -1104746 Δ NWC USD 979851 24242 24744 23404 23912 279344 25529 25610 26542 26842 224688 28767 30327 31972 33707 -1506064 Cash flow of the project (CFp) -23218897 3382168 2946222 2525698 2157512 4116704 4639098 3711645 3116655 2588870 3684715 4829741 4441481 4032296 3570087 2707351 FIRRp (publicly owned institutions) 11,80%

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6.5 EA EIRR Economic Analysis of project Incremental Economic flows (Adjusted for Fiscal Transfers and Transfers among Stakeholders, Not Adjusted for Impact of Externalities, Market distortions and Distribution Effects) EF Item\Period APR unit 2 016 2 017 2 018 2 019 2 020 2 021 2 022 2 023 2 024 2 025 2 026 2 027 2 028 2 029 2 030 #ODKAZ!

Outputs net of transfers USD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 The same demand sutisfied in both alternatives All revenues effects are dealed as a transfer as we assume price elasticity equal to zero

Inputs net of transfers USD -3246191 -3450109 -3659862 -3888491 -4160271 -4143019 -4431438 -4780674 -5107475 -5469855 -5695684 -6216287 -6788737 -7418446 -8111392 0 Wages - Costs (Officers) 1 USD 5256 5581 5961 6373 6875 7415 7793 8423 8905 9501 10475 11548 12732 14036 15475 0 Office Rents - Costs 1 USD 74880 76451 78523 80331 82919 85591 86075 89024 90072 91962 97020 102356 107986 113925 120191 0 Wages - Costs Group A (economy, it, inspection, client centre, card centre) 1 USD 82344 87434 93397 99847 107702 116174 122088 131953 139516 148852 164106 180923 199463 219903 242437 0 Wages - Costs Group B (dispatchers) 1 USD 110376 117199 125191 133837 144366 155723 163650 176874 187010 199525 219972 242513 267365 294763 324969 0 Consumables 1 USD 5723 5843 6001 6139 6337 6541 6578 6803 6884 7028 7415 7822 8253 8706 9185 0 Ticket Costs of Production (Printing Costs) 1 USD 1576493 1609564 1653199 1691259 1745752 1802000 1812178 1874270 1896349 1936131 2042618 2154962 2273485 2398526 2530445 0 Ticket Distribution Costs (margin of distributor) 1 USD 704087 678167 657125 637207 623448 929721 886229 868810 833218 806348 1054177 1054177 1054177 1054177 1054177 0 FUEL Consumption Costs 1 USD 3030776 3097453 3165597 3235240 3306415 3379157 3453498 3529475 3607123 3686480 3767583 3850469 3935180 4021754 4110232 0 Maintenance and Spare Parts Costs 1 USD 1200893 1242268 1294310 1348173 1386596 1414328 1442614 1471466 1500896 1530914 1561532 1592762 1624618 1657110 1690252 0 Wages - Costs (Drivers) 1 USD 674520 716217 765059 817892 882236 951641 1000082 1080894 1142840 1219322 1344272 1482026 1633896 1801330 1985921 0 Energy Consumption Costs 1 USD 2978 3040 3122 3194 3297 3404 3423 3540 3582 3657 3858 4070 4294 4530 4779 0 Water consumption Costs 1 USD 6209 6339 6511 6661 6876 7097 7137 7382 7469 7625 8045 8487 8954 9447 9966 0 Heating Costs 1 USD 3582 3657 3756 3843 3967 4094 4118 4259 4309 4399 4641 4896 5166 5450 5750 0 SAVED Fuel Consumption Costs (minibuses not needed) 1 USD -6791416 -6940827 -7093526 -7249583 -7409074 -7572074 -7738659 -7908910 -8082906 -8260730 -8442466 -8628200 -8818020 -9012017 -9210281 0 Saved Wages - Costs (drivers of minibuses not needed) 1 USD -3504000 -3720607 -3974332 -4248791 -4583043 -4943591 -5195230 -5615035 -5936833 -6334138 -6983229 -7698836 -8487774 -9357558 -10316474 0 Saved Maintenance Costs and Spare Parts of Minibuses not needed 1 USD -428890 -437888 -449759 -460113 -474938 -490240 -493009 -509902 -515908 -526731 -555701 -586265 -618509 -652527 -688416 0

Investment (Fixed Assets) inputs USD 23970776 0 0 0 0 1688913 0 -10510474 0 0 1864697 0 0 0 0 -1434735 SW backoffice 1 USD 228741 0 0 0 0 269396 0 0 0 0 297435 0 0 0 0 0 Implementation (initial service) 1 USD 57185 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HW infrastructure 1 USD 57185 0 0 0 0 67349 0 0 0 0 74359 0 0 0 0 0 Equipment for inspectors 1 USD 16012 0 0 0 0 18858 0 0 0 0 20820 0 0 0 0 0 Office Equipment 1 USD 14296 0 0 0 0 16837 0 0 0 0 18590 0 0 0 0 0 Buses (100 Buses in purchasing prices) 1 USD 21158588 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Buses - on- board computer unit 1 USD 274490 0 0 0 0 323275 0 0 0 0 356922 0 0 0 0 0 Depot building in Total 1 USD 2876727 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1434735 Depot Equipment in Total 1 USD 1423424 0 0 0 0 477979 0 0 0 0 527728 0 0 0 0 0 Minibuses - on -board computer, (1validator, wifi,, gps, installation) 1 USD 437468 0 0 0 0 515219 0 0 0 0 568844 0 0 0 0 0 Revenue from sales of current Minibuses not needed 1 USD -2573342 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Minibuses reinvestments savings 1 USD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -10510474 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Externalities and Public Goods Sign of the effect Air Pollution Effect + Noise Pollution Effect + Water and Soil Pollution Effect + Safety Effect (Accidents decrease) + Travel Time Savings + Decrease of Flexibility for Users -

Economic flow (EF) USD -20724585 3450109 3659862 3888491 4160271 2454106 4431438 15291148 5107475 5469855 3830988 6216287 6788737 7418446 8111392 1434735 EIRR (without externalities and p.goods) 21,54%

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There is attainable table of summary in EA EIRR sheet, from which is clear, that the project would affect negatively consumers - transport users (caused by increasing tariffs), then positively producers - private and public as well (caused by increasing tariff and decreasing costs) as well as positively are affected government revenues (caused by increasing taxation in total). If we sum together all the effects we will realized that the only change of social welfare (except externalities) is triggered by the new technology that is more cost-efficient (costs savings).

6.6 Summary We have identified 4 stakeholder for whom were the incremental impacts of project forecasted and counted – Municipality itself, Regulator - Management Centre for Public Transport in Khujand, Publicly Owned Provider - State unitary enterprise "Khujand City Bus" and set of Private Providers of Minibuses. As there are all public institutions mutually linked and significant part of flows is transfers within this group of subjects, the meaningful point of view is from municipality perspective in wider meaning. So there are consolidated flows added from all municipality linked bodies. Nominal FIRRp is equal to 11,80 %, so it is positive and thanks to the conventional structure of flows we may say, that this project is financially acceptable to the level of 11,80 % of nominal return representing opportunity costs. The most important effects on which is the result dependent are revenues from tickets, investment costs, fuel costs, maintenance costs and spare parts and tickets share of private providers.

If we take into consideration chosen structure of financing, the results of FIRRE are affected by unconventional sequence of flows and even-though the result is high it would be under any discount rate just a little bit positive (varying positive and negative results). So it is less confusing to look at the FNPVE, which was positive with hurdle rate 11 %.

From social perspective, the project EIRR equals to 21, 54 % with no respect to local market distortions, externalities and public goods. As the time structure of economic flows is conventional as well, we may say that this project is capable to bring net welfare increase to the society in comparison with real SDR (net of inflation) lower than 21, 54 %. The result is sufficient to state that the project is socially efficient thanks to the fact that, if we take into consideration structure of simultaneously classified externalities and public goods effects, the result would be even better. Because the cumulated social value of externalities and public goods effects would be positive. The most important effects on which is the EIRR result dependent are Investments, Saved Fuel Costs!, Saved Wages, Fuel Costs and Maintenance Costs and spare parts and Ticketing operational costs.

The project is recommended for acceptance from Tajikistan society perspective.

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7 Environmental and Social Analysis

7.1 Site observation

7.1.1 Site observation of the former trolley bus depot Site observation confirmed the data gathered during the project investigations and showed us the expected current state of the depot area together with its equipment and vehicles in use. Approximate area size is 25 600 m2. The main building is situated in the centre of the space which negatively influences the future spatial planning of the fully operational depot.

There are no trolleybuses used by the Company and the state of the art of the depot buildings as well the equipment were assessed as in very bad technical condition with slight possibility to be used for the project implementation (see the pictures below).

Neither in the streets nor in the depot there are no visible signs of the current even past trolleybus operation: no trolleys, no buses, no equipment in the depot that could be used for the maintenance and so on. We can distinguish and define the usage of the buildings and specific areas for the past purposes in the depot operation period that reflects the only document available – the ground plan of the depot (shown below). The depot was built in 1970 in the compliance with the current legislation and norms (assumed the current Soviet ones as they are used as well today).

The drainage system and maintenance pits were made in similar way and probably in compliance with nowadays proposals and general requirements, except the runoff water drainage in the depot area. The washing area / ablution facilities on daily basis were constructed for 2 vehicles, no safety measures nor any other equipment were observed related to these facilities. It is assumed that the technical water from the daily washing maintenance was discharged directly into the drainage system of the depot area, maximum the oil traps were used before discharge into the public drainage. The ablution facilities from the main halls had a separate drainage system and a waste water basin that was maintained regularly. It is unknown how was the sewage / sludge disposed and where. Apparently this was the only separate waste water treatment on site, no other standard waste water treatment were located there. The drainage system was equipped with the standard oil and oil-water separators, as well unknown in what standard and what was the regular maintenance.

The core building in the depot is the big maintenance hall that is surrounded with small buildings that were used for specific maintenance and as well for administration. On the right side of the entrance gate are located the daily washing shelters and at the back of the whole area are located the parking places for trolleybuses.

As the standards were set in the current period the depot had to maintain as well an area of the greenery that is located in front of the depot gate (location b in the figure).

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Ground plan 1, Company depot

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Ground plan 2, Company depot

Current depot - used area (b), green area (a)

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In the last quarter century, since 1990s, the depot was used for different tenants mostly as storage, warehouse for different kinds of products such as fridges, construction materials and so on. Nowadays the depot is used as well for the concrete bricks/blocks production. The bricks are getting dry in the former trolleybus parking place at the back of the depot area. The major maintenance hall is used for the individual small – medium car maintenance by the tenants.

The municipal trolleybus company providing transport service is no longer operating. The municipal company owns the former trolley bus depot, which is no longer fully used for trolleybuses from the end of 90’ the 20th century due to the electricity shortages. This site was used as trolleybus depot till the end of trolley bus operation in the City. In the depot there are no storage tanks for fuel and lubricants and any other storage facilities. Social and administrative facilities are not in the need level. In this area of former trolley bus depot there are two transformers and water pipeline. The waste should be collected in the waste containment area and in accordance with the contract are taken away by auto enterprise sanitary cleaning up of Khujand City.

7.1.1.1 The current potential environmental and social risk, contaminations Air Pollution – due to the current state of operation of the Company there are no adverse effects resulted from the Company operation; nowadays there are not vehicles in use and the only air pollution that result from the depot area are those of the tenant usage. Few small buses, individual cars, the current usage of the area – stock, bricks etc.

Noise Pollution – similarly to the air pollution there cannot be identified any adverse effects on noise pollution only in relation with the activities in the depot area caused by the current tenants, as of the site observation there were no significant impacts identified or expected.

Public health – public health is primary connected with the air & noise emissions therefore there were no significant impacts observed; the only impact on public health is related to potential contamination of the groundwater sources and soil that is likely to happen as the depot is not in very good technical condition (see below). The reconstruction of the depot will cause the increase of the emissions and as well impact on public health at the area is located in the mainly housing district.

Water quality – the sewage drainage system was probably constructed in the whole depot especially under the parking place, the existence of the drainage system under the maintenance hall is unsure, the technical waters from the washing facilities were stored in basin and recycled, the sludge transported to adequate landfill or use (assumed). It is assumed that the outside bus shelter for washing also had a drainage system; the water should enter the public drainage system after the oil-water separator. The runoffs are collected by the surface drainage system but unsure the storage or other use remains unsure. Due to the age of the depot area and water leakages, the necessity of the drainage system renewal is very urgent. The possibility of the contamination of the soil and underground water is probable to medium/high extent. The level and the significance of the potential contamination have to be examined in further stages for any type of reconstruction.

Ecosystems, flora & fauna, urban greenery – the depot is surrounded by the housing areas. As the local regulation required the area should contain and maintain as well urban greenery which is currently situated in front of the entrance gate, between the

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depot area and the local road. It is still maintained. For the further reconstruction of the depot it is possible to use even this area; however the minimum amount of urban greenery must be kept within the whole depot area. It means that any damaged and should be replaced by new one within or around the depot area. If the front greenery will be used it will represent a loss of urban greenery which is as well partially a local emission absorber. There were observed no specific flora and fauna species that have to be protected. The current species are the typical urban greenery trees.

Soil quality, land acquisition – similarly to the water quality potential risks and contamination the soil contamination is likely to happened due to the oil leakages, bad conditions of the paved surfaces and the sewage water drainage system, bad isolation and disposal of the oil and other dangerous products.

Waste management – there were observed no standard waste containment sites such as containers, designated places for waste storage and so on, this also causes contamination risks to groundwater and soil in the adjacent area.

The possible contamination risks should be examined and elaborated in detail for any further usage of the depot together with proposal of the decontamination and redevelopment measures. The contamination level is derived from the age of the area, as well from the uncertainties of the usage during last decades (storage of fridges, unprofessional individual car maintenance), the current state of the used equipment and site.

The future potential environmental and social risks and adverse effects are in detail assessed in the E&S Analysis.

7.1.2 Site observation of the proposed depot 2 – space for new bus depot and overnight parking The proposed area for the new parking place and depot is located in the “new economic” zone farer from the housing area which is suitable for placing all facilities such heavy maintenance and bus parking all in one place. Approximate area size is 26 700 m2. The terrain is sloped and might require greater earthworks.

From the point of view of individual car parking, administration buildings, canteen and other facilities, this area seem more optimal for the depot construction as it is larger and all equipment will get enough space there; there even will be enough of space for separate waste management storage, daily maintenance parking / shelters and so on. The current depot even with the urban greenery is smaller and is located in the housing district.

Current land use of the area is multifunctional. Partly it is used as storage for road construction waste that is usually recycled later on for other constructions in the city (location c, partly b) and other construction materials (sand, gravel etc.). In the same area are placed 2 large beehives (see below the photos). The location c and partly b are on the right side from the entrance gate and the areal road (“b” letter in the picture).

Around the area are parked or stored different types of trucks and cars, some of them are maintained there without any proper isolation. One part of the location c is used for the concrete bricks production/storage as well. An old fuel tank was found there.

On the left side of the road there is a young orchard and a building that seems well maintained.

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Legal background

The proposed area can be used for a purpose of depot based on the compliance with the regional / town development plan as this area is the economic zone.

Location of the proposed depot - maintenance

The pictures below show the view on current situation on location.

Beehives next to the construction waste storage Young orchard and other stored trucks/vehicles

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Maintenance of trucks Mixture of the landuse

Construion work equipment Bricks storage and fuel tank

7.1.2.1 The current potential environmental and social risk, contaminations Emission / atmospheric pollutants (noise & air), public health – the current use of the area is not a significant emission producer, it is used locally as a storage and maintenance area, the nearest housing area is not affected. As the development plan is proposed this area will remain for economic and commercial purposes therefore it is assumed no new housing districts will be built in nearest surroundings.

Current activities causing noise emission: the transport of materials to and out of the site, occasional terrain landscaping and material movements; associated traffic.

Current activities causing atmospheric emission/pollution: similarly to the noise activities, the transfer of materials, its movements on the site, landscaping – most of that cause the increase of dust and particulates in the site, out of the site the emission origin are from the vehicles.

Water and soil quality – there was no drainage system observed, only the orchard surface irrigation; it is assumed there are no special facilities located under the car maintenance areas therefore the contamination risk will reflects the amount of oil & other liquids leakages and spoilages into the ground and groundwater. The previous land use in unknown, as well the groundwater level. The soil will be contaminated alike especially in the places of car maintenance and technical machine parking.

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The level and the significance of the potential contamination have to be examined in further stages for any type of proper usage.

Ecosystems, flora & fauna, urban greenery – the area as described is man cultivated and used. The beehives represent very specific man – made structures constructed for domesticated honey bee’s species. Those can be replaced during the pre/construction phase of the project implementation.

There are expected the standard species related to the orchard which represent the only maintained plants in the area together with few other trees planted by the entrance road. All the flora and fauna organisms are man-made structures and the beehives can be replaced, orchard is more of livelihood value and only local ecosystem value.

Some area of the orchard could remain on the site as to fill the local regulation for specific urban greenery ratio in new development areas of investments.

Soil quality, land acquisition – similarly to the water quality potential risks and contamination the soil contamination is likely to happened due to the oil leakages, no drainage system or car maintenance facilities, as well the improper fuel tank storage. The land is mostly unpaved, the surface is covered mainly by gravel, grass etc..

Waste management – there were observed no standard waste containment sites such as containers, designated places for waste storage and so on, this cause as well contamination risks into groundwater and soil in and adjacent to the area.

The possible contamination risks should be examined and elaborated in detail for the next area complex usage together with proposal of the decontamination and redevelopment measures. The contamination level is derived from the current use of the site, the technical conditions of the mechanisms used on the site and the absence of any contamination protection measures.

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7.1.3 Site observation of the proposed depot 3 – New location north The area is situated in the west north of the city by the main local communication. Nowadays the area is without any buildings and other equipment.

Approximate area size is around 5,50ha. The size of the area is only informative (the size was measured from Google maps), the accurate size of the area was not commutate.

The area is located in so called „free zone” out of the detailed specification in the spatial plan without any historical use. The adjacent area is intended for the housing district usage and in its near proximity is located the marshrutkas as well the bus terminal station.

From the north there is nondisturbed hilly landscape; from west, east and south there is new housing area partially already under development nowadays. The infrastructure will be available for the depot as well due to the housing development – the electricity, the water and waste water system.

The location is suitable for the depot construction due to the reasons as follows: non contamination on site, the location on the city periphery, the near proximity to the marshrutkas and proposed bus terminal, the adjacent area is under development which could be then adjusted accordingly to the depot needs and impacts – the necessary and adequate distance from residential houses can be adjusted, the mitigation measures such as satisfactory width of urban greenery barrier etc..

Location of the new depot – North, near Chashma terminal

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The location and wider area of the new depot – North, near Chashma terminal

The location by the right side of The hilly landscape from the North direction the main road, direction to the current housing area and proposed bus terminal station Chashma 2

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7.1.3.1 The current potential environmental and social risk, contaminations There are no potential current risks and contamination of the area as it has never been used for any purposes. The only potential risks imply from the general state of the art of the city which means for example the radiation potential contamination in groundwater due to the uranium mining and so on.

Ecosystems, flora & fauna, urban greenery – the area is non used for agriculture neither urban greenery, the location is covered by grass ecosystem with no specific ecosystem value.

Land acquisition – will not raise any compensations neither resettlement nor socio- economic impacts.

The current air and noise pollution reflects the site location near the mountains, housing area and the general climate characteristics (dusty and dry periods, erosions from the mountains without vegetation cover, etc.).

7.2 Description and assessment of the significant environmental and social impacts of the project

7.2.1 Impacts associated with construction Construction stage is defined by construction/reconstruction of the bus depot and its associated facilities on one side and as well the implementation of the public transport project system on the other side.

The impacts have to be elaborated in detail in further project phase and within the EIA/SEE procedure.

7.2.1.1 Impacts expected in relation to implementation of the public transport changes: Environmental impacts

There are no expected environmental impacts for implementing the new system of public transport won’t be significant. The implementation of the system will require the mass campaign in the city via local media and ways standard for the residents.

The routes for the new public transport system, as well the bus stops and transfer stop, will be used the same as nowadays for marshrutkas system; no new routes or building of termination stops are required by the project.

Only possible risk and impact as well uncertainty will arise in relation with the termination of 1000/1100 marshrutkas in operation. This will cause big risk of “car” waste, or non-used cars which will stay in the unequipped places with improper protection against the oil leakages and spillages.

Measures:

 Waste management plan or new usage for marshrutkas, transparent criteria (for ex. technical conditions) to terminate the marshrutkas operation

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Socio-economic impacts

If we consider the hiring the employee staff and setting the Company to the construction phase, there will be likely very significant impact due to the change of the fleet and therefore reduction of the marshrutkas in operation.

The significant impact will occur in the increase of non-employment as it is expected that the amount of 1000-1100 marshrutkas will terminates which means around 2 people to loose job per 1 vehicle (driver, ticket seller). The creation of the jobs during the construction and operation cannot fully substitute the job losses. Above if the HR will hire the staff from the marshrutkas current drivers or ticket sellers, those have to be properly educated and trained, there arise another risk if all the people are able to be trained adequately for the specific purposes.

The compensation is proposed by EBRD and Consultant even though this kind of provision is not found in Tajikistan and if the contracts/termination of licences will be in compliance with the legislation the compensation is likely not to be enforceable.

Measures:

 Transparent termination of the contracts/licences  Transparent, publicly disclosed retrenchment plan  Training and education support for job losses

7.2.1.2 Impact expected in relation to reconstruction of the current depot (variant 1), construction of the new depot current maintenance site (variant 2) or new depot in free zone Chashma (variant 3): Climate – due to the project character and size there are no significant climate impacts likely to occur.

Air quality will be influenced by activities that could release aerial contaminants, these are as follows:

 by the transport of materials to the site and out of the site – V1 will constitute of large volumes of construction waste from the demolitions, V2 will represent large volumes of soil transport for the land /terrain levelling, V3 will represent only materials for the depot no specific soil or construction waste transport  by the demolition of constructions and buildings of the current depot (V1) on the site  land levelling and earthworks – greater impacts expected for V2 as the terrain has to be more adjusted and changed than for the current depot which is already situated in the plain surface, the V3 is expected to require some kind of land levelling but not of a high extent. The initial phase of demolition of the current depot (V1) facilities will have significant impact and will affect the nearest adjacent area beside the site itself, on the other hand the expected impact will be limited and temporary for only short period. On the other side in case of V2 the land levelling will represent as well great significant impact and increase of the dust and increase of the TOP in the low atmosphere. The V3 could be built in advance before the adjacent housing district and therefore represent the least impact on the current resident areas because the site is on green site surrounded by similar fields.

The transport of materials and construction waste will temporarily cause the increase of the dust on the roads due to the materials transported and increase the air pollution

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cause by vehicles on the road. The V3 is situated on the city periphery therefore it can be assumed that the traffic volumes will not enter the city centre or so much resident areas such as the V1 a V2.

Measures

• Plan of the road for transport of the materials, working hours, covers will be placed over transported materials to guard against the dust blow. Water will be sprayed during delivery and handling of materials when dust is likely to be emitted. Stored materials during dry and windy weather should be coved if stored on the site. Where unpaved access tracks are used, these shall be dampened during dry and windy weather. • Provision the plant and equipment is operated by appropriately trained and qualified personnel. • Maintenance and planned regular checking of the technical conditions of all vehicles and equipment used for the construction.

Water quality and demands

Potential impacts on the quality of surface water from construction activities include pollution from construction vehicles, equipment and materials stores, and poor sanitation at work sites, the release of soil where earthworks take place adjacent to watercourses, improvements or replacements of culverts (if they will be proposed).

Besides the quantity of rainwater and its physical characteristics of the water flow and infiltration will change due to the increase of the paved sites ratio.

In order to prevent pollution from construction activities, the following measures need to be taken and should form part of the contract conditions and specification of the works:

• All toxic and hazardous materials required for construction, including asphalt, fuel and caustic substances shall be stored at secure and managed sites, sited away from watercourses. • The location of storage sites for toxic and hazardous materials will be shown on specific plans, to be submitted for approval prior to the commencement of works – the operating rules, the emergency plan. • Vehicles and equipment shall be maintained in good operable/technical condition, ensuring no leakage of oil or fuel. All worksites will have waste disposal bins to store hydrocarbons from filters, rags, waste oil for disposal at approved locations. These worksites should be provided with waterproofing layers to prevent the leakages to the ground. • Vehicles and equipment will be serviced at properly managed and equipped worksites. Waste oil will be collected and disposed of at approved locations, indicated on specific plans to be approved prior to the commencement of works. • Sanitation arrangements will be made at worksites and any accommodation facilities provided for workers’ accommodation, ensuring that no raw sewage is released into drains or watercourses. The locations and sewage treatment methods for sanitation facilities shall be indicated on specific plans submitted for approval prior to the commencement of works. Suitable treatment may be the use of pit latrines, in which case plans should include details of the pit volume related to expected level of use, plugging of used pits with soil (to allow for natural treatment of the waste over time) and siting.

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• Where earthworks take place adjacent to watercourses (which is not likely to happen but has to be approved during the detailed design), silt/oil traps shall be installed prior to the commencement of earthwork activity. Types and placing of the silt/oil traps will be included in specific plans to be submitted for approval prior to the works. • The rainwater during the construction should be stored in basins and after the separators could be discharged in the public sewerage system. • The fuel and oil tank storage will be stored in security 2 layers basins and protected storage tub

Ecology and biological resources

The same routes and bus stops will be used as current system.

The current depot (V1) is situated in completely paved area with all old facilities in site with no ecological value. The only unpaved area is located in between the entrance gate/area borders and the local route and is used as a urban greenery which is maintained by the Company staff. If the current depot will be reconstructed this green area will be likely acquired for its extension for new facilities that are not present in the current depot area (new administration building, parking places for individual cars etc.). The ecological value of the urban greenery is low and it has only local significance as urban greenery and as well as a local dust and air pollution absorber.

The construction of the new depot (V2) will cause felling of the trees and the orchards on the site and replacement of the beehives. The orchard has a low/moderate ecological value of a local significance as it is defined as cultivated manmade ecosystem.

Measures:

• Replacement of the beehives • To provide the landscaping plan of the greenery of the site with the usage of the current greenery on the sites

The construction of the new depot in the site near Chashma – location 3 will demand the land levelling and clearing of the site which will be represented by the current grass ecosystem damage which can be classified as low value of habitat with no assumed rare species or any other ecological value.

It is assumed that the geological conditions won’t be affected as the construction and land levelling of the sites will not affect more than first soil layers.

Landscape of the affected area is characterized with the local urban structure. For V1 the landscape will be affected only in the way of acquiring the urban greenery area and therefore will bring extension of the industrial area to the affected district. In the V2 case the whole area is more or less industrial therefore very low impact on the landscape characteristics is expected.

In the case of V3 the higher impact of the landscape characteristics is expected due to the location on the periphery of the city on the mountain edge range. The impacts will cumulate in relation with the expected housing / residential area growth in the adjacent sites and will be reflected in the original scenery and sight from the city to the mountains. Even though the impacts won’t destroy the complete visual view as the

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depot as well the housing area is not expected higher than the current buildings and provisions, only the lower level of the mountain edge will be visually affected.

Measures:

• Especially for the V1, as it is fully incorporated in the urban structure, propose in the landscaping plan greenery along the depot borders to create visual barrier towards the housing area and the local road. • Adjust the height of the administrative and maintenance buildings to the current standard housing level in it surroundings. • V3 is recommended to propose adequate lines and groups of urban greenery especially higher trees barriers which would provide visual as well air quality protection measure

Land, soil quality

Land that is cultivated for agriculture is placed only in the site of V2 which is partially used as an orchard and there are placed 2 beehives nearby. The whole site V2 and V3 is more or less unpaved therefore it will cause permanent land acquisition and soil excavation. The soil quality has to be examined before the topsoil removal which has to be treated in compliance with the local legislation (Land Code, other regulations on land/soil quality protection). Despite the fact the site V3 is located in the “green area” there was no evident prove found of agriculture current or future use.

In the V1 case only the urban greenery will be acquired that has not agricultural value but the paved area will be extended and some of topsoil will be removed as well.

The potential risk of the soil pollution is similar to surface water and it can be cause by the oil and liquid leakages/ spillages of the vehicles, machinery and equipment on the site and the routes.

Measures:

• Topsoil removal and deposition in accordance with the standard and regulation on soil protection • Provision of the good technical and operable conditions which has to be regularly checked • All the worksites and parking places has to be equipped by waterproofing layers and drainage system with oil/silt traps before the discharge into the drainage/sewerage system

Noise and vibration

Noise and vibration pollution from construction will be caused by the machinery and equipment on the site and can cause the nuisance to local resident from the adjacent area as well to workers on the site.

In the next project stage and EIA/SEE procedure has to be elaborated and calculated the potential impact on the nearest housing buildings and if there will be proved the significant nuisance, adequate measures has to been proposed such as noise-proof barriers and walls, establishment of machinery time schedule works etc.

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General measures:

• Ensuring that construction machinery and equipment is maintained to a high standard, and that exhaust baffles are fitted and maintained in a high serviceable condition. • The noisy operations shall be limited to periods of least impact, avoiding disturbance to school classes and religious events. • The noise pollution study should be elaborated in the EIA/SEE process and prove the level of nuisance meet the required limits if not the adequate measures has to be proposed.

Others – waste, local traffic

The existing routes will be used for the transport of materials and will permanently increase the traffic volumes. The pedestrian safety can be affected as there are usually no pavements along the roads. In the peak periods of the material transport the vehicles can contribute to traffic crowds.

Measures:

• Providing advance information to the public about planned construction works; • Planning construction activities to minimize disruption and maintaining at least one open lane where there is no viable alternative route • Use of flagmen and temporary traffic lights to control traffic flows at constricted sites, including safe crossing for pedestrians – especially in V1 site.

Due to the demolition of constructions and large land levelling volumes there is expected big amount of waste production during the construction stage of the project.

Measures:

• Waste from the re/construction of the depot has to be transferred due the waste origin and disposed by appropriate manner (hazardous or solid waste) in designated landfills. • The construction waste has to be firstly re-used and recycled if possible.

Socio – economic factors

Construction activities can cause potential hazards to both workers and public. Hazards include excavation, movement of plant and equipment in open and confined spaces, and the use of hazardous substances. Safety to workers and the public can be enhanced by:

• Proper briefing and training of workers on safety precautions, and their responsibilities for the safety of themselves and others – establishment of operating rules on the construction site • Provision to workers of protective clothing including hard hats, protective footwear, and high visibility jackets for use when construction activity is to take place at night/evening. These should be compliant with relevant standards (for example the GOST 12.4.011-89 Occupational Health Standards: Workers Protective Equipment: General Standards and Classification, or other standard compatible with International Labour Organization Recommendation Concerning Safety and Health in Construction (No. 175, Geneva, 1988). • Ensuring that plant and vehicle operators are properly licensed and trained.

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• Arranging for the provision of first aid facilities, readily available trained paramedical personnel, and emergency transport to the nearest hospital with accident and emergency facilities, and allocation of responsibility for ensuring that these arrangements are continually in place. • Arranging for regular safety checks of vehicles and material, and allocation of responsibility for this to a designated, qualified and experienced Health and Safety Officer • Provision of hazard warning signs around construction sites, and directing vehicle and pedestrian traffic away from work sites. • Training programs will be organized by the Contractor prior to the start of works and each six months thereafter covering safety precautions and emergency procedures. Attendance will be recorded. The Contractor’s Health and Safety Officer will conduct periodical tests to gain feedback for the training and to ensure that information has been retained.

Workforce and public health

There could be potential impacts caused by transfer of working force from other cities or internationally due to the project construction. The HR policy is recommended to hire as much as possible local residents or from adjacent cities and region. The temporary facilities for workers have to fulfil all the hygiene and safety standards for cooking, washing, accommodation, sanitation as well solid waste collection and disposal.

The safety and security training has to be conducted for all the working staff before the construction commencement.

General public health

During the construction will be temporarily observed the increase of TOP, other atmospheric pollutants distribution and dispersion in the adjacent area, noise pollution due to the each phase of the construction works and due to the traffic volumes of transferred materials. The adjacent housing areas will be therefore influenced.

The measures:

Air pollution – similar to air quality control: good technical and operable conditions of all machinery and equipment together with regular check control; cover of dusty material on site and on the trucks; establishment of the work time schedule etc.

Land acquisition and properties

Land acquisition is related to the whole site area where is a building that will be used for administration and orchard and storage area (construction waste, bricks). The affected properties are small in size and the compensation in the form of replacement the orchards and waste storage is possible in other parts of the city or it could be compensate financially but there is no precedent for this method in Tajikistan so far. The land acquisition won’t be connected with any resettlement.

Employment

During the construction there will be demand for working force and as the EBRD and Consultant requires as much as possible should be hired from the local resident or adjacent region area.

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The recruiting procedure of candidates for employment has to be transparent, registered, there should be provided the assurance of gender and immigrants equality, the prohibitive factors for children and forced work have to be incorporated.

The tables below show the overview of the impact assessment in the proposed scale.

SCALE

-- significant negative impact

- negative impact 0 neutral + positive impact

++ significant positive impact

The impact significance of the construction stage was assessed considering all related criteria related to each environmental factor. The duration of the impact was assessed as temporary or permanent and in some cases was detected if the permanent impact is reversible; most of them are reversible in the case of demolition of the depot or terminating of the operation. Some of them are non-reversible such as land – soil impacts by using the topsoil or felling of the vegetation.

CONSTRUCTION IMPACT DESCRIPTION SIGNIFICANCE DURATION

vehicle fleet renewal and change of the public transport system climate air geology water quality Construction stage of the vehicle fleet won't have any landscape environmental effect as it 0 none landuse, soil will consist of the fleet purchase and public ecological and information campaign. biological resources

noise cultural heritage The construction /pre- operation phase will represent the new Company institutional system and procurement, as well municipality control socio-economic permanent, and monitoring system +/- characteristics reversible establishment, the retrenchment of the current staff working for private operators, recruitment of the new staff, later supplier contracting.

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CONSTRUCTION variant 1 variant 2 variant 3 IMPACT DESCRIPTION Duration DEPOT RE/CONSTRUCTION VARIANTS SIGNIF. SIGNIF. SIGNIF. The character of the project will not affect the climate 0 0 0 none climatic conditions during the construction stage. The air quality will be affected by the machines, transport of the materials, demolition of the current constructions, landscape levelling etc., as the depot is situated in near the housing area, it will air temporarily affect even -/-- -/-- - temporary the adjacent local community. Due to the state of the climatic and air conditions which causes dusty environment those impacts could be assessed as moderate- high. The reconstruction of the depot will require the demolition of the constructions as well the drainage system, it is not geology assumed the geological 0 0 0 none conditions or any other natural resources will be affected during construction even operation phase. Potential leakages from the vehicles and water temporary/ construction machines - - - quality permanent during the construction stage, measures proposed V1 The town landscape and urban structure won't be significantly affected as the current depot will be reconstructed; the only impact could be landscape identified due to urban - 0 - temporary greenery acquisition and placement of the workingforce place. Therefore the impact could be identified as moderate.

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V2 similarly to V1, the site is incorporated in urban structure no characteristics will be influenced V3 the mountain low level range will be visually affected during the construction within new developing zone working place, oil landuse, leakages machines - 0/- - - temporary soil temporary land acquisition V1 depletion of urban greenery - low ecological value, high urbanistic value ecological V2 depletion of the and Permanent / orchad, beehives - low - - 0/- biological irreversible agricultural and ecological resources value V3 depletion of the grassland - low ecological value impact on residential noise areas due to machines, - - 0/- temporary demolition stage cultural none 0 0 0 none heritage socio- economic employees , workforce + + + temporary characteris tics

7.2.2 Impacts associated with operation Impacts expected in relation to changes in a vehicle fleet (often permanent impacts) – change of public transport system:

Air pollution reduction

Reduction of emissions of aerial pollutants, however locally might the emissions increase where the new routes are traced.

Under existing conditions, the quality of the ambient air is impaired by vehicle emissions in the project area, the centre of the city is overloaded by the noise and emissions pollution (TSP). Emissions from idling engines while vehicles are stationary during periods of congestion are a contributory factor. The proposed improvements are designed to decrease congestion that occurs in the city centre.

Due to the fleet change, 1100 marshrutkas operation will be replaced by 100 buses with standard EURO V which have conclusively better emission factors than an average marshrutka used nowadays.

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For the project proposal was computed a transport model which gives us, besides traffic volumes of each line, an overview of the change of the emission production (atmospheric as well noise). The comparison was made on the road axis.

The CNG fuel vehicles were not proposed and further elaborated for the project proposal for reasons as follows:

• The CNG fuel supply is not stable such as gasoline and diesel • The CNG buses are not more environmentally friendly in comparison with EURO V standard, accordingly to the air pollution

Assessment of average CO2 emissions of existing marshrutkas fleet and new fleet of marshrutkas and buses

Assessment of CO2 production was made on the basis of EBRD Methodology for Assessment of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions. In the document the sources of emissions are sorted by production CO2 and the projects of Locomotive, ship, transport fleet purchases are sorted in the category Medium-Low level of production CO2 ( 20 –

100 kt CO2e pa). CO2 accounts for 97% of transport GHG emissions.

The analysis of CO2 production was made on part of the document Guidance Note 3 (GN3) through to equation:

퐶푂2(푡) = ∑(퐴푛푛푢푎푙 푑𝑖푠푡푎푛푐푒 푡푟푎푣푒푙푙푒푑 푏푦 푒푎푐ℎ 푣푒ℎ𝑖푐푙푒 푡푦푝푒)푖 푥 (퐶푂2 푒푚푚𝑖푠𝑖표푛 푓푎푐푡표푟)푖 푖

If project specific data unavailable, use default emission factors:

For road transport: cars 0.000270 t CO2 / km light trucks: 0.000325 t CO2 / km heavy trucks: 0.000535 t CO2 / km

Assessment of emission factor for the calculation of total annual amount of CO2 emission:

Marshrutkas are sorted in the vehicle category of light commercial vehicles with a gross vehicle weight of not more than 3.5 tonnes. The average age of the marshrutkas is about 15 year and maintenance is also unprofessional. Therefore the estimated emission factor increased to emission of light truck 0.000325 t CO2 / km.

The buses for Khujand are considered to be new and fulfilling at least EURO V standard. In this case the emission factor for heavy trucks was used from GN3 document, 0.000535 t CO2 / km.

Annual travelled distance by each type of vehicle

The data about annul distance travelled by marshrutkas and future travelled distance by marshrutkas and buses was generated by mathematical model of public transport in Khujand.

Annual distance travelled by sum of vehicles [106 vehiclekm/year]

ANNUAL DISTANCE TRAVELLED BY SUM OF VEHICLES [106 vehiclekm/year]

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Current state Future state Marshrutkas Buses[vehiclekm/year] Marshrutkas [vehiclekm/year] [vehiclekm/year] 84.087 12.159 33.857 Source: http://www.ebrd.com/downloads/about/sustainability/ghgguide.pdf

Current fleet of marshrutkas:

6 CO2_marshrutka = 84.087*10 *0.000325=27 328.275 t

Future fleet of marshrutkas and buses:

6 CO2_buses=12.159*10 *0.000535=6 505.1 t

6 CO2_marshrutka=33.857*10 *0.000325=11 003.525 t

Total_CO2_marshrutkas&buses=21 422t

The above calculation shows that the operation of 85 buses (15 of buses will not operate on the routes but will remain as spare vehicles in case of accident or heavy maintenance) will significantly reduce annual CO2 emissions by 9 819.65 t, which corresponds to a decrease of 35.9% of CO2 emissions.

Water quality - the new bus fleet in the city will represent smaller risks to the water pollution and quality as all the maintenance will take place in the depot with proper standardized equipment and technical water treatment, waterproof protection from the leakages and spillages, as well in other parts of the city – transfer and casual bus stops.

Ecology and biological resources – no impacts expected.

Geological conditions – no impacts expected.

Landscape, land and soil quality – no impacts expected, the secondary benefit will be in the decrease of the risk of the soil pollution due to the standardized equipment depot, drainage and sewerage system.

Noise and vibrations

Second biggest positive effect of the change of the bus fleet after the aerial pollution reduction is the noise disturbance reduction in the centre with over exceeding handling capacity.

The decrease of the traffic volumes, emission factors of the noise level of the buses EURO V are unquestionable in comparison with marshrutkas factors and traffic volumes.

Others – traffic, waste

Traffic volumes should partially decrease as the buses will replace the marhrutkas, the intervals will be set by the time table and the passenger carrying capacity is higher.

Waste management system will not be sufficiently influenced.

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Socio – economic criteria

The new public transport fleet will represent better traffic control, environmental control and therefore comfort for passengers, increase of safety for pedestrians as the bus stops will be stable and the buses will not be allowed to stop besides the bus stops, etc..

The importance of control instruments in the implementation of road safety system

In general, road safety is in advanced countries really observed topic in long term and it is one of the most serious societal problems of today. The relevance of the problem can be showed on e.g. impacts of the road accidents in the year 2009 when in the area of EU27 states died more than 35 thousands of people and 1.5 million were harmed. The road accidents have also the negative economic impacts and loss in the height of 130 billion EUR. One of the way how to improve the situation is the identification of general reasons why the serious road accidents origin and in this relation the implementation of the road safety system.

Each road accident which causes death or serious injury is needed to be assess as the system fault of whole society, not the fault of the individual as the common opinion is. In the medium-term is needed without any doubt to set goals as sharply decreasing number of dead and serial injured people, define best practise and activities which support the goals. The states in which the really positive numbers of road accident statistics are developed their philosophy says that it is not acceptable that people die or are injured in connection of transport. The traffic professionals know that people make mistakes and in order to prevent the negative impacts of these mistakes, they systematically design and create the safe traffic system with safe vehicles and infrastructure. The ideal condition is the time when each person reaches the destination alive and without any injury.

The creation of safe road system requires the changes which creates the conditions for decreasing of accidents risks and especially minimization of serious impacts. It is needed to bring changes which create:

• safe roads, in which are • in use safe vehicles and • moving participants with safe behaviour.

The improving these fundamental parts has to be balanced because the parts are connected and influencing each other. The improving only one part doesn´t have to necessarily lead to improving road safety or only imperceptibly. Therefore it is necessary to systematically improve all parts of the traffic system and check if the improving one part doesn´t make negative impacts to the other parts. The fundamental thing for reaching the safe traffic system is the fact that the safe human behaviour can fault (deliberately, recklessly or due to lack of skills or knowledge) and human body has the own limits. That means that in the field of human factor it is needed to make the steps which leads to elimination of faulty and dangerous behaviour or just minimize them. The proactive access of elimination of serious impacts is focused on education of drivers, compliance of safety break and also the repression, when the drivers are checked for presence of alcohol or other addictive substances in their bodies.

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The different situation meets the technical parts of system – the roads and vehicles (also the parameters and equipment) should be designed to create conditions for safe behaviour. In the same time they should by construct in that way, if the human faults, the human life is not endangered and the serious injuries are not caused. These goals could by fulfilled e.g. by the regular renewal and maintenance of vehicle fleet and construction of the safe, understandable and forgiving roads.

The higher mentioned vision is able to formulate into following goals:

• Implementation of safety monitoring

With the specific focus on the record and evidence of accident incidents it enables to analyse accidents and design the safety procuration in order to eliminate localities with frequent accidents. The next step is implementation and development of ITS system.

• Improvements of education and exercises of road transport participants

With the specific focus on improving preparation and conduct examinations of applicants for driving licenses and ongoing training of drivers (not only professional) after the issue of the license, especially with regard to the ability of older people.

• Strengthen enforcement of traffic rules

With the specific focus on campaign for enforcement of traffic rules and use of modern technologies in vehicles

• Safer infrastructure

With the specific focus on financial conditions it is necessary to use the money from funds only on infrastructure which fulfil the requirements given by directives of road safety and safety of tunnels. In the same time it is needed to enforce the principles of the management of infrastructure safety on the whole infrastructure net.

• Safer vehicles

With the specific focus on systematically renewal and maintenance vehicle fleet and implementation of vehicles with alternative drive

• Support of the use of modern technology to increase road safety

With the specific focus on the evaluation of possibility of equipment of current utility vehicles and personal cars by systems for driving support and speed-up eCall system development (system which is able to automatically call help in emergency)

• Improvement of the rescue services and the services of the followed-up care for the injured

With the specific focus on creating the global strategy focused on minimization of injuries from traffic accidents, effective first aid and rehabilitation of injuries.

• Safety of vulnerable participants of traffic

With the specific focus on the monitoring and development of standards for safety of vulnerable participants of traffic, inclusion of motorcycles in the system of vehicle inspections and focus on increasing safety of cyclists and other vulnerable road users e.g. by supporting the construction of adequate infrastructure.

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The realization these principles will decrease the number of accidents, as we can see in the following European states: , Spain, Portugal, France, and which reached in the last decade significant reduction of dead persons, decrease about 50% by the original numbers.

Thee united feature of these countries is the clear declaration of traffic safety policy with the potential to reach the declared, maximal acceptable number of dead persons in the target year. The policy was arranged by action plan which specify measures to be taken and the role of individual entities.

Another united feature of these countries is the coordination of the activities in the field of road and traffic safety by only one governmental or inter-ministerial agency, which has for its activities given sufficient resources, which are further distributed.

In all these countries strong political will existed to changes which leads to specific goals, strategic plans and available resources. In the same way there exist radical stricter penalties for drivers – with offense. Some offenses were included among the crime, in general, there were an increase in potential penalties. All of these countries use a system of automatic compliance checks, particularly the speed limit, and especially France, this system led to technical maturity. The states at the beginning of the last decade have acceded to the creation of new organizational structures of road safety and also have established appropriate coordination bodies in order to improve safety on the roads. In Spain, Portugal and France were established National Observatory road and traffic safety having an advisory and coordinating role. In Spain, Latvia and Lithuania have systems of scoring drivers.

The experience of the states with the most significant decrease in current accident shows that the most effective way to achieve a significant reduction in the number of dead people on the roads in a relatively short period of time is a clear definition of the governance structure of traffic safety system, ensuring sufficient financial activities, professional information support, intensive monitoring compliance with applicable laws by drivers, especially in respect of the max. speed limits, respect for the prohibition of driving under the influence of alcohol and drugs, and ultimately creating a safe infrastructure. This is not only the quantity but also the quality based on how the country is able to exact penalties or punishment. All countries except Luxembourg use automatic radar to measure the speed of vehicles on all types of roads. Experiences from Portugal, Lithuania and Spain point to the fact that the increase in safety infrastructure is the most efficient power for continuous long-term increase in the level of road and traffic safety.

From this perspective, the introduction of a local coordinator of road and traffic safety appears to be one of the cornerstones of an effectively operating safe transportation system. This body will not only give patronage to all activities related to proactively increase traffic safety, but will also appeal to the competent authorities in criminal proceedings to achieve a high level of enforcement of sanctions for violations of traffic rules. At the same time another positive step was planned to establish a functioning transport company providing a function of public automobile transport in the city. With the planned establishment of a transport company are also expected changes in the transportation of persons. Old cars capable of carrying max. 8 people and a driver will be largely replaced by modern city buses with significantly higher capacity.

At the same time these buses have much more higher level of passive and active safety and therefore there are able to prevent some types of accidents (e.g. the

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accidents caused by brake system) and also to minimize the consequences for health by accidents which happened. Another advantage which could be visible after establishing transport company is a long term improving of the professional drivers of these buses

The drivers should complete regular education, comply with driving brakes and also should be checked for an presence of alcohol and drug substances.

It is also possible to calculate expected advantages of the suggested changes in the function of public transport. The calculation is provided by the decrease of the societal loss. This parameter shows the average financial loss for society, which is caused by necessary actions connected with the accidents. In the international study, the level of regular societal loss was defined by the consequences and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The value for death and serious injury are showed in the following table:

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Economical consequences of road accidents in Tajikistan

THE TYPE OF INJURY ECONOMICAL LOSS [€]

Dead person 70 x GDP per person = 63 358

Injured person 3.27 x GDP per person = 2 961

The objective comparison of current and proposed state ( decrease from current 1500 marshrutkas to circa 500 marshrutkas and 90 buses) from the perspective of road safety is provided by comparison records of accidents according to transport capacity, not only the records of accidents per kilometre. From the empiric knowledge it is known that the relative accident rate doesn´t depend only the transport capacity, but also the density, it means intensity divided by capacity, and manoeuvres which influence traffic flow (e.g. manoeuvres at intersections). And therefore by the decreasing of number of vehicles the traffic safety will arise.

The assessment of proposed changes impacts to road safety was made in two variants-before and after proposed changes. The transport capacity of influenced region (Khujand city) was generated by mathematical model of individual transport in Tajikistan-Khujand.

Transport capacity SUM OF THE VEHICLES [106 vehiclekm/year]

CURRENT STATE FUTURE STATE AFTER CHANGES

marshrutkas 84.087 35.857 buses --- 12.159

Relative accident rate [number of accidents / 106 vehiclekm]

NUMBER OF DEAD NUMBER OF INJURED PEOPLE PEOPLE marshrutkas 0.08 0.76 buses 0.06 3.78

The prediction of accident development was made on the basis of relative accident rate. The relative accident rate for marshrutkas was calculated on the basis of data about accidents provided by Khujand authorities. It is necessary to mention that the validity and complexity of these data is on a low level and therefore the conclusions are only approximate. On the other hands the accident rate of buses comes from relevant analysis. Data was taken from the city with the approximate same size, transport demand, terrain, density of settlement and regional importance. The city is called Pilsen in the Czech Republic.

By the calculation was proved that after the proposed changes the accident rate will decrease. The calculation is related to the current state.

The decrease was identified as:

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• Every year decrease of death amount by 3.34 persons (-50.2%) • Every year decrease of injuries by 5.25 persons (-8.2%)

From the prediction of accident decrease is noticeable significant benefit in reducing fatal consequences while introducing modern buses with significantly higher level of passive and active safety than currently used outdated vehicles.

The calculation of savings in societal loss is made on the basis of data from table 1. On the basis of the average value of each type of accidental consequences was calculated every year savings in a level of 227 380 €.

7.2.2.1 Impacts expected due to the re/construction of the depot Climate – due to the project character and size there are no significant climate impacts likely to occur. The improvement of the air quality is not expected in such a level that could visibly influence the climate but it will improve the comfort of the local residents.

Air quality

The air pollution will change due to the depot re/construction in the form of increased traffic volumes in the localities and adjacent areas, the content of the pollutants will slightly increase due to the new bus transport volumes.

Water quality

Potential impacts on the quality of surface water during the depot operation include similar pollution as during the construction stage – the potential leakages from the vehicles, equipment and materials/waste storage on the site, and poor sanitation at work sites. Besides the quantity of rainwater and its behaviour it will change due to increase of the paved sites.

The sewage water from the administration and employee facility will be discharged to the public sewage system. The technical water from the maintenance should be discharged and treated in local waste water treatment plant placed directly in the heavy maintenance hall, especially for the chassis washing facility and the ablution vehicle facility.

The new drainage systems will be constructed by the EU standards and local legislation therefore the current leakages from the current depot will not occur, the improved storm water flows can be as well expected. The design of the depot has to include and count with the possible public storm drainage and sewage water capacity.

 The rainwater as well as sewage water system and treatment plan has to be regularly maintained  The rainwater should be graded – sloped into the local rainwater drainage system and after the silt/oil trap could be discharged in the public sewerage/drainage system.  To place waste water treatment plant/s for the chassis washing maintenance and for the bus ablution maintenance, the exact technology and capacity should be defined in the project design

Ecology and biological resources – there are not expected any impacts on ecosystem during the operation of the depot.

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It is assumed that the geological conditions won’t be affected as the construction and land levelling of the sites will not affect more than first soil layers.

Landscape – there are not expected any additional impacts on ecosystem during the operation of the depot.

Land, soil quality – there are not expected any impacts on land during the operation of the depot. The risks of the soil contamination will be very low due to the high technical standard of the construction, waterproof protection, oil/grease/silt traps.

Noise and vibration

The noise and vibration will increase in the depot site and the routes with daily bus routes from and in the depot and as well in the adjacent areas. Therefore the impact significant will vary and reflect the amount of the affected housing / residential areas and households. These impacts are not assumed to be low but they have to be further elaborated during the EIA/SEE process in the noise distribution model.

Others – waste, local traffic

The local traffic volumes are not expected to be affected due to depot operation accordingly to the size of the bus fleet.

Waste management system will be disposed on designated places and transferred to the appropriate landfill due to the waste type and origin.

Socio – economic factors

The depot will require educated and trained staff which will be preferable hired from the local/regional residents. The controlled system of public system together with the ticketing system will represent increase of the financial control and income for the city even the public transport system is expected to require permanent municipality subsidy. Those should be divided over all the municipalities which benefits and use the system within their administrative borders.

The tables below show the overview of the impact assessment in the proposed scale.

SCALE

-- significant negative impact

- negative impact 0 neutral + positive impact

++ significant positive impact

The impact significance of the operation stage was assessed considering all related criteria related to each environmental factor. The duration of the impact was assessed as temporary or permanent and in some cases was detected if the permanent impact is reversible; most of them are reversible in the case of demolition of the depot or terminating of the operation. Some of them are non-reversible such as land – soil impacts by using the topsoil or felling of the vegetation.

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OPERATION IMPACT DESCRIPTION SIGNIF. DURATION

vehicle fleet renewal and change of the public transport system

The climatic conditions are likely not to be affected due to the project character. Only microclimatic climate conditions could be improved due to - permanent local decrease of the atmospheric pollutants in the affected area along the routes.

reduction of atmospheric emission air +/++ permanent and pollutants distribution

The reconstruction of the depot will require the demolition of the constructions as well the drainage system, it is not assumed the geology 0 none geological conditions or any other natural resources will be affected during construction even operation phase.

decrease of oil leakages, spoilages, water quality control and monitoring - parking + permanent places, routes

landscape none 0 none landuse, soil none 0 none ecological and decrease of oil leakages, spoilages, biological control and monitoring - parking 0/+ permanent resources places, routes

reduction of noise pollution along the noise +/++ permanent routes, public health

bus users , residents, pedestrians - higher safety & comfort, accident socio-economic reduction, monitoring & control, job ++/-- permanent characteristics losses, training, education system, grievance mechanism, operating rules

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OPERATION IMPACT DESCRIPTION variant 1 variant 2 variant 3

DEPOT RE/CONSTRUCTION VARIANTS SIGNIF. SIGNIF. SIGNIF. DURATION

The climatic conditions are likely not to be affected due to the project character. The microclimatic conditions on the site could be changed due to the permanent renewal of the depot climate 0/- 0/- 0/- / operation - the depot will reversible expand to the urban greenery site, the area will renew the maintenance and will be target of the buses therefore the microclimate will partially change.

Slight increase of the permanent air pollutants on the site and 0/- 0/- 0/- / adjacent roads reversible

geology none 0 0 0 none higher demands and consumption, technical waste and sewage waters, due to the construction in compliance with EU standards there should be equipment and measures temporary water of a high quality, - - - / quality therefore the potential permanent impacts can result from the accidents, wrong maintenance etc, all variants are not connected directly to any watercourse

V1 The town landscape and urban structure won't be significantly affected as the current depot will be used, the only impact permanent could be identified due to landscape - - -/-- / urban greenery reversible acquisition that is directly connected to the public space. Therefore the impact could be identified as moderate.

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V2 no landscape characteristics should be affected, the site is already in the closed fenced area

V3 the site is located by the mountain range edge, lowest level, it will slightly affect the distance view and scene, can be compensate/minimised

new paved structures, depot provisions etc - permanent land acquisition

There are no additional impacts detected during temporary the operation stage / except permanent land permanent landuse, soil acquired for the depot 0/- -/-- -/-- - construction. The irreversibl potential impacts could e occur due to the accidents (see water factor) which could lead to shrot even long-term impacts accordingly to the accident origin and significance.

There are no additional impacts detected during ecological the operation stage. The temporary and only potential impacts 0/- 0/- 0/- / biological could occur due to the permanent resources accidents (see water factor).

slight increase in the site permanent noise and adjacent roads and - - - / residential areas reversible

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increase of employees for the depot, new training, modern education in socio- compliance with the new permanent economic bus standards; new OHS +/++ +/++ +/++ / characteristi and environmental reversible cs strategy for the employees, grievance procedure

7.2.3 Impacts associated with closure and decommissioning Some of the materials used for the construction enable to be reused or recycled. For this intent is necessary to separate the hazardous waste or toxic particulates from such materials. The exact procedures and waste management plan has to be elaborated before the decommissioning stage commences.

During the decommissioning it is obliged to follow the current approved legislation and regulations.

The impacts of the closure will represent the aerial temporary pollution due to possible demolition of buildings and other constructions. If all the site of the depot as well as vehicles and equipment will be maintained accordingly to the current regulations, there will not be any further contamination risks present.

7.3 Identifying the project stakeholders

In order to define a communication process in compliance with EBRD PR 10, the Consultant together with the municipality of the Khujand City has identified the stakeholder groups that might be affected by and / or interested in the Project implementation. The Project will welcome the suggestions for the improvement of proposed communication methods or media. The suggestions can be submitted via the contact information which can be found at the end of this document.

Stakeholders are all state and private enterprises interested or affected by the Project implementation as well the residents and physical bodies that will be directly affected by the Project or secondary influenced by the transport system change. Other group of stakeholders includes all the affected legal authorities on national, regional as well local level, and at the end as well any of NGO’s that could be likely interested in the Project.

Summary of the Stakeholders directly affected by the project and communication methods

Affected parties / stakeholders Likely communication methods Affected Local physical bodies and legal entities along the route Land tenants / land users / settlement Group meeting with households / residents / business owners affected by individuals, representatives of the the land expropriation /cancelling of the affected private companies; contract for renting the land – direct public discussions & meetings / local land impacts of the depot and media / local community and municipality

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associated facilities bulletin boards. Leaflets with Project updates Group meeting with households / Land tenants / land users / settlement individuals, representatives of the residents / business owners in the affected private companies; affected area – in the proximity of the public discussions & meetings / local project footprint (adjacent area to the media / local community and municipality current/new depot area) bulletin boards. Leaflets with Project updates Group / individual meetings with the Road users/operators and their operators/ local meetings/ official employees – direct impact on correspondence/ public hearings and work/livelihood participation within the EIA process Road users/residents along the lines – Local media announcements/ information direct impact on living conditions/public banners along the road/ information health characteristics campaign Official website disclosure/ campaign/ Residents of the Khujand City – public public hearings and participation within transport users the EIA process Stakeholders involved in the project implementation Individual meetings/internal workers’ Supervising Company of Civil Works and meetings/ contracts/ implementation of its employees the grievance mechanism during the construction stage/ official reporting Individual meetings/internal workers’ Constructing Company and its meetings/ contracts/ implementation of employees - Workers (including any the grievance mechanism during the subcontractors workers) construction stage/official reporting Private operators of the marshrutkas Individual and group meetings/ official and their employees, private drivers correspondence/ contracting “New Public Transport Company” and Individual and group meetings/ official employees correspondence/ contracting

Summary of the public authorities to be involved in the decision making process and communication methods

Interested authority Likely communication methods Tajikistan national authorities Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Tajikistan Official correspondence/ Meetings Government of Tajikistan Environmental Protection Committee Local authorities / institutions / agencies Official correspondence / Meetings/ Municipality of Khujand websites disclosure / media

Municipality of Chkalovsk Official correspondence / Meetings

Municipality of Gafurov Official correspondence / Meetings

Police Official correspondence / Meetings

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Interested authority Likely communication methods Khujand City State Communal Unitary Enterprise “Trolleybus Khujand” Official meetings/provisions (“SCUE”) – service providing company Non – Government Organizations (NGOs) and other agencies Aarhus Centre in Khujand Meetings / public discussions & meetings Other local NGOs interested in public / media / websites disclosure transport topic

7.4 Stakeholder engagement programme & action plan

7.4.1 Stakeholder engagement – passive The Municipality of Khujand City intends to provide all the relevant information to the public when appropriate. As of the date of disclosure all interested parties will able to access the following documents that will be on the web pages of Khujand City and on the web page of EBRD (www.ebrd.com), and are the deliverables of the TDD Project:

Environmental and Social Action Plan (ESAP) – EBRD expected date – June 2015

Stakeholder Engagement Plan (SEP) – EBRD expected date – June 2015

Non-technical summary of the project based on E&S Analysis – EBRD expected date – June 2015

In addition, hard copies of these documents will be available at the following locations (addresses provided at the end of the document):

 Municipality of Khujand City – Transport department;  EBRD office in Dushanbe.  EBRD office in London.

These documents will remain in the public domain for the whole duration of the Project. The SEP/ESAP will be periodically updated.

The following stages of the Project

The Project documentation and activities will be published on the Khujand City web page. In addition, the leaflets will be distributed and meetings with local communities will be organized accordingly to the project stage. The municipalities of Khujand, Chkalovsk, Gafurov, Kairakum, Isfisor will distribute the announcements to the affected communities.

Public discussion regarding the EIA consultations will be announced by the means of public media (state TV, radio, local media) in the appropriate stage of the Project implementation.

The public will be able to use the grievance mechanism described below and the respective information will be distributed to the affected municipalities and local communities.

During the Project duration, the City of Khujand will continue their communication and cooperation with the stakeholders and SEP will be updated to reflect the Project

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implementation changes. The annual Environmental and Safety reports will be published on the EBRD as well municipalities’ web page.

7.4.2 Stakeholder engagement action plan The table below presents the action plan for stakeholder engagement for the upcoming period; for the TDD Project duration and there are as well outlined the likely followed stages of the project implementation. Two basic views were taking into account that could differ accordingly to the stakeholder engagement:

1) the change of the public transport system: change in ticketing system, organization of the public transport, change of the bus fleet, new contracts, routes etc.,

2) any associated construction needed to proceed the change of the public transport system – stage of the reconstruction of the current or constructing the new depot and associated facilities acquiring the land.

Therefore the next steps will be connected with the activities such as land acquisition – obtaining the necessary land (cancelling the tenants contracts, accordance with the Development/Spatial Plan), obtaining the Building Permit, EIA process, implementing the new system of public transport. In the view of the project management we can define 3 main stages and their activities as follows:

Pre-construction activities:  Technical Due Diligence  Feasibility study, Site Approval Dossier and any other documentation to obtain the Building/Project Permit  Land acquisition Construction activities:  Re/construction of new depot and associated facilities  Re/setting the structure and employees of the Public Transport Company “Khujand City State Communal Unitary Enterprise”  Contracting changes with the private operators, associated activities (recalls – exclusion of the current need of the marshrutkas amount that will be covered by the new bus fleet)  Purchase of the bus fleet  Implementation of public transport management authorities  Implementing the public transport system, information campaign for the users Operating activities:  Operating of the public transport, maintenance  Monitoring and reporting

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No Project Goal / Tasks Action / competency Target interested stage party:

PRE-CONSTRUCTION/ PROJECT STAGE – project & documentation deliverables before the construction activities can begin

TECHNICAL DUE DILIGENCE PROJECT – “feasibility study to prove the possibilities to implement the whole project in general terms, conditions, investment”

1 Technical Delivering the EBRD + Khujand City Public disclosure: Due final TDD competency: Land tenants / Diligence Project Disclosure of the land users / Project deliverables settlement (SEP/ESAP/NT etc.)/ residents / Expected business owners June 2015 affected by the land expropriation /cancelling of the contract

FEASIBILITY STUDY/ SITE APPROVAL DOCUMENTATION – land acquiring facilities (parking places, transfer stations reconstructions, depot, gas station, administration, etc..) – implementing the new public transport system (the Dossier in detail to commence the new system, procurements, purchase of the new buses)

2 Draft Project Consultation Khujand City Land owners / land Documentati to deliver high competency: users / those who on level of public Disclosure of the Draft live in built objects participation Project Documentation / business owners of Project to hold public discussion who will be Documentatio about the variants and affected by the n the project proposal / land expropriation Khujand City website – nearby the local media and press affected area

3 EIA (OVOS) Consultations Khujand City + Land owners / land & SEE about Environmental users / those who Environmental Committee live in built objects Impact competency: / business owners Assessment who will be Disclosure of the (EIA) and the affected by the process overview of the, E&S impacts land expropriation EIA (OVOS) procedure/ nearby the Khujand City website, affected area Environmental Committee website Include the vulnerable groups

within the affected Disclosure of the SEE local communities procedure Municipalities of documents/public Chvalovsk, hearing, meeting, Dafurov, Khujand City website, Kairakum,

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Environmental Environmental Committee website – Committee depends on the project Other relevant classification interested state agencies Grievance mechanism encompassed in the EIA/SEE process

4 Land Plan to Khujand City repurchase acquire the competency: land needed Individual meetings and Local operators, for the depot contracting with the land tenants current and new tenants of the acquired land

5 Final Project Consultation Khujand City Documentati to deliver competency: on - Final Project Disclosure of the Final complex Documentatio Project Documentation, study of the n, the EIA measurements public should be incorporated transport as well as the system opinions/comments/com General public, plaints of the residents relevant state delivered during the authorities process of the project implementation / Khujand City website, other municipalities – local media and press

6 Before the Obtaining all Khujand City construction necessary competency: Official commencem Permits and correspondence/public ent – during Approvals – meetings & Relevant state the obtaining hearings/meetings with authorities, preparation Building relevant state affected stage Permit authorities & municipalities municipalities and interested parties involved in decision making process

7 Procurement To inform the Khujand City + EBRD of the Civil public about competency: Works the state Procurement notice financing of disclosure on the General public, the Civil constructing company of potential Works the depot – websites of Contractors Khujand City + EBRD The announcement of the Contractor

8 Procurement To inform the Khujand City + EBRD General public, of purchase/ public about competency: potential

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Purchase of the state Procurement notice Contractors new fleet financing disclosure on the bus fleet purchase and its equipment– websites of Khujand City + EBRD The announcement of the Contractor

CONTRUCTION STAGE – implementing and information to the users, construction of the depot and associated facilities

9 Marshrutkas To set Khujand City – fleet transparent Contractors reduction/ procedure to competency: job change the transparent procedure retrenchmen public to terminate current t transport fleet marshrutkas licenses Private operators, and operating of more private owners of than 2/3 of current the licenses system – the vehicles as well the job retrenchment/public discussions, individual meetings, round tables

10 New public To manage Khujand City, all transport the best and affected Affected public – system legal municipalities – all residents and commencem commenceme Contractors public transport ent nt and competency: users (Khujand, operating of Information campaign Chkalovsk, the new public for the public before the Gafurov, transport commencement of the Kairakum) system system

11 Re/Construc To manage Khujand City + tion of the environmental Contractors depot ly and socially (Constructing safe legal company) construction competency: of the new Information tables, bus depot workers training, Workers, affected monitoring reports of residents in the the supervising construction company to the Khujand neighbourhood and City, Khujand City adjacent area website information of affected with the the ongoing transport routes construction and update of the time schedule, local media /

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12 Before To establish Khujand City commencem the competent competency: ent of the and complex announcement – operation Public General public – all disclosure of Transport stakeholders establishing the Public Company Transport Company and its competencies

OPERATING STAGE – operating the system, maintenance, monitoring, reporting

13 Operating of To maintain Khujand City, Public Employees of the the new stability and Transport Company service providers public sustainability competency: Time (private operators, transport of the new schedules on website, state company)/ system system information tables by the service users, the bus stations, residents, visitors information centre/ Khujand City + operators

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8 Conclusion Khujand Public Transport – Technical Due Diligence is a project which completely solves the technical, economic, environmental and social aspects of developing public transport in Khujand in order to introduce an effective, widely used and environmentally friendly public transport.

On-going economic development of the city brings an increasing level of private car ownership, resulting in congestions and increasing burden on the city environment. Hence the City recognises that a robust public transport system for its citizens is one of the key pillars of sustainable urban development.

An adequate quality of public transport in the city and adjacent region is a key prerequisite for sustainable mobility. It increases interest in investing, promotes tourism and is significantly more environmentally friendly.

The current public transport system is characterised by a large number of overlapping routes. The route network needs a thorough revision in line with the City’s growth patterns. The new route network is expected to ease traffic congestion by directing public transport to streets where demand is more acute and by aggregating the passenger flows in high-capacity transport units (large buses) and thus decrease pollution and bring efficiency measures to the sector.

The proposed new public transport system consists of 10 backbone bus lines, which are served by 85 12m-standard diesel low-entry buses operated by publicly owned Bus enterprise (former Trolleybus Khujand) under the public service contract. The total number of procured buses shall be 100, since 15 spare vehicles are needed for operational backup or substitute during heavy maintenance. One type of buses shall be chosen in order to minimize the maintenance costs. The operation of 100 standard buses requires a construction and equipment of a new modern bus depot, which is proposed to be placed on north of the City near Chashma terminal.

The proposed transport system is supplemented by 37 marshrutka lines which have a function of a feeder service to bus lines and are operated by private operators utilizing approximately 420 marshrutkas (minibuses). In total 24 of these marshrutka lines operate within the city under the public service contract and are included in the common fare revenue collection system. Remaining 13 marshrutka lines provide transport services in the region and are operated on commercial basis.

It is recommend to implement the fare collection in the Khujand public transport system by means of prepaid transfer tickets in the zone-time tariff (the city is divided into 3 zones) for a single journey as well as tickets with an extended time limit of validity (e.g. day, week, month, etc.). The reduced fare for children and proclaimed authorities shall be available. The passengers are obligated to buy a ticket through advance sale and have it at disposal for all the time throughout the transport. Upon a control, passengers without a valid ticket pay a fine in the amount set by the City Council. The tickets shall be available in paper form (a single journey ticket, time prepaid ticket for 24 hours or 1 week) or uploaded on electronic chip card (time prepaid ticket for 24 hours, 1 week or 1 month). The paper tickets will be distributed by retailers and vending machines; electronic licences shall be available in headquarter of the Management Centre for Public Transport in Khujand (one of rather many contact points), on e-shop or through automatic payment machines (after agreement with

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their providers is reached). However, latter two options still require a visit of a contact point to charge the ticket on the chip card.

The stability and prosperity of the new transport system will be provided by the Management Centre for Public Transport in Khujand on behalf of the city of Khujand. The Centre controls the operators; awards the licenses to operators; hires the dispatchers; controls regularity and quality of the service, passenger flows, vehicle mileage and other key performance indicators; collects the revenues; redistributes the revenues among the operators and is responsible for ticket issue and distribution.

Comprehensive financial models for the Project for a period of 15 years have been prepared. For the purpose of the model we have identified 4 stakeholder for whom the incremental impacts of project were forecasted and counted – Municipality itself, Regulator - Management Centre for Public Transport in Khujand, Publicly Owned Provider - State unitary enterprise "Khujand City Bus" and set of Private Providers of Minibuses. Nominal FIRRp is equal to 11,80 %, so it is positive and thanks to the conventional structure of flows we may say that this project is financially acceptable in terms of nominal return representing opportunity costs. As the time structure of economic flows is conventional as well, we may say that this project is capable to bring net welfare increase to the society in comparison with real SDR (net of inflation) lower than 21, 54 %. The result of EIRR is sufficient to state that the project is socially efficient. If we take into consideration structure of simultaneously classified externalities and public goods effects, the result would be even better. The most important effects on which is the result dependent (in terms of sensitivity) are revenues from tickets, investment costs, fuel costs, maintenance costs and spare parts costs and tickets revenue share of private operators.

The new system provides indisputable benefits e.g. the new route network decreases the number of traveled km per year and therefore the air and noise pollution is lowered, the maintenance is provided in modern depot which complies with environmental regulations and last but not least, the overall increase in culture of traveling will promote the usage of the public transport and thus lowering the private personal car usage. The benefits of utilization new EURO V buses are unquestionably in emission and noise level reduction. Combining the effect of redesigning the transport system and utilization of the new buses, it is possible to achieve a significant reduction of annual CO2 emissions by 9 819.65 t, which corresponds to a decrease of 35.9% of

CO2 emissions in public transport sector.

It is clear that an effective public transport system cannot be built "from day to day." It is the result of the implementation of successive stages that are closely related and are distributed in realistic timeline. But an effective, widely used and environmentally friendly public transport can be achieved if above specified recommendations will be followed and properly implemented in following years.

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