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Flash May 2017 Labour market on the right track Employment and unemployment in Luxembourg 8 Domestic paid employment picked up in late 2016, up 3.3% over one year in the 4th quarter. Unemployment benefited from this 7 momentum and continued to fall, dropping to 6.0% of the working 6 population in April 2017, up from 6.2% at the turn of the year. All sectors are benefiting from the recovery and job vacancies remain 5 at historically high levels. 4 Job creations continue to soar 3 In the last quarter of 2016, growth in domestic paid employment 2 rose to +0.9% over one quarter (+3.3% over one year), after a 1 slightly slower pace over the previous four quarters, bringing aver- age annual growth to 3.1% in 2016, after 2.6% in 2015. The Grand 0 Duchy is thus ranked second in the euro zone (behind Malta), among the most dynamic countries in the euro area. Growth in Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Luxembourg employment is therefore back at its long-term average Jan-07 (+3.3% per annum from 1986 to 2016). Unemployment rate, as a % of the working population Domestic paid employment, annual variation in % In 2016, the most dynamic sectors were real estate (+7.3%), busi- ness services (+6.6%), agriculture (+5.2%) and ICT (+3.5%). The Sources: STATEC, IGSS, ADEM most significant contributions, however, were in sectors that play a larger role in the Luxembourg economy. Thus, business services Unemployment continues to fall accounted for one third of jobs created in 2016 (especially in terms The drop in unemployment in Luxembourg since mid-2014 is con- of accounting activities and temporary employment), followed by tinuing at a regular pace. The unemployment rate thus stood at construction, the financial sector and trade. 6.0% in April 2017, after peaking at 7.2% in Q2 2014. However, it Vacancy rates remain particularly high in administrative and sup- remains well above the level of before the financial crisis in 2008- port services, specialist, scientific and technical services, hotel and 2009. catering and ICT. The extent of the drop is similar when people in job schemes are The figures available for early 2017 show that the employment taken into account. The rate here went from 9.1% of the working market is continuing to hold up well. The figures for temporary population in Q3 2014 to 7.9% in April 2017. The decline in unem- employment provided by FES members (Fedil Employment Ser- ployment is thus based on real economic momentum (rather than vices) indicate a strengthening at the end of the 1st quarter (+15.5% an increased number of subsidised jobs). over one year in March in terms of hours worked against +5.2% in This drop in unemployment is part of a trend that is visible across February and +8.8% in January). The economic surveys point in the Europe. The unemployment rate across the euro zone stood at same direction, with companies revising their employment pro- 9.5% of the working population in February 2017, after peaking at spects upward (particularly in the construction sector). Partial un- 12.1% in April 2013. However, it is still too high to generate any employment applications remain historically low. significant tension on consumer prices and wages. Conjoncture Flash | May 2017 Construction More projects – but smaller Planning permission by volume The volume of projects granted planning permission in the 4th 3 9 000 quarter of 2016 – expressed in m – fell 17% over one year. Over the past year, the fall was approximately 20%, affecting mainly 3 8 000 non-residential construction projects. It must be noted that in this 7 000 area, 2015 was particularly marked by the approval of several major projects, including one in particular to the south of Luxem- 6 000 bourg City. In contrast, the number of non-residential construction 5 000 projects granted planning permission was higher in 2016 (up 12% 4 000 to 410, against 366 in 2015). 3 000 Planning permission was granted for 1 665 projects (also up 12% over one year), corresponding to 4 750 houses and apartments in 2 000 total (+22%), but representing a built volume of just 2% more than Volume be to built, in 1 000 m 1 000 in 2015. In sum, of all planning permissions granted in 2016, aver- age project size was down about 30%. 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Residential construction Non-residential construction Source: STATEC Consumption New car registrations lagging behind New car registrations since 2007 Sales of new private cars were showing signs of weakness in early 110 2017. At the end of April, total new car registrations were stagnant compared to last year (compared to a 4.6% rise in the euro zone). 105 They fell 0.9% over one quarter in Q1 2017 (+3% over one year) 100 and April proved very disappointing: with just 4 860 new car regis- trations (-7% over one year and approximately 300 vehicles less 95 than over the four previous years in the same month), the worst 90 result posted in Luxembourg since 2001. That said, April was a mediocre month for car sales across Europe 2007 2007 Q1 = 100 85 (-5% over one year in the euro zone), a phenomenon that is mostly 80 due – according to car makers – to the fact that Easter was in April this year (it was in March in 2016). Consequently, better results can 75 be expected for May, but this is yet to be confirmed. 70 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 Luxembourg Zone euro Sources: ACEA, STATEC (seasonally adjusted figures) Financial sector 1/2 Insurance: more favourable signals Insurance premium income Premiums collected by Luxembourg insurance companies rose 5% over one year in the 1st quarter of 2017, after falling almost 4% 7.5 over 2016 as a whole. This recovery was largely sustained by unit- 7.0 linked life insurance products (+27% over one year). As their remu- neration is tied to stock market performance, they may be benefit- 6.5 ing from the upswing in equity indices since end-2016. In contrast, premiums for products with a guaranteed return fell sharply (-28% 6.0 over one year in the 1st quarter of 2017). 5.5 Across Europe, confidence among stakeholders in the financial In EUR bn 5.0 sector has improved substantially since last November, particularly among insurance professionals (see Conjoncture Flash of April 4.5 2017). 4.0 According to data compiled by the IGSS, employment in the Lux- embourg insurance sector rose 4.4% in 2016, a marked improve- 3.5 ment on 2015 performance (just +0.8%). 11 Q1 13 Q3 16 Q1 11 Q3 12 Q1 12 Q3 13 Q1 14 Q1 14 Q3 15 Q1 15 Q3 16 Q3 17 Q1 Sources: Commissariat aux Assurances, STATEC (seasonally adjusted data) Conjoncture Flash | May 2017 Financial sector 2/2 Loans: more flexibility for households than for businesses Loan criteria According to the latest survey on the distribution of bank loans 30 (April 2017), Luxembourg banks have not overall modified their + : tightening lending criteria for businesses, confirming that the easing in credit 20 - : easing terms seen since 2014 until early 2016 is now over. For households, - however, banks seem to be proving more flexible in term of both 10 mortgages and consumer loans, due in particular to competitive pressure from other banks. 0 The institutions surveyed also mentioned a rise in non-interest -10 expenses in terms of conditions applied to loans actually granted (for lending to households and businesses) and an increase in -20 margins for most types of loan. Loan applications for businesses Balance Balance of +/ responses appear more linked to fixed capital investments, while applications -30 from households seem more driven by consumer spending on durable goods. 10 Q3 11 Q1 11 Q3 12 Q1 12 Q3 10 Q1 13 Q1 13 Q3 14 Q1 14 Q3 15 Q1 15 Q3 16 Q1 16 Q3 17 Q1 Companies Households - consumer loans Households - housing loans Source: Macrobond (moving averages over 3 quarters) Public finances Upturn in “oil” excise duties Excise duties on oil products and pump price differentials After falling for 4 years due to the drop in road fuel sales, excise revenue on oil products is now up almost 5% over one year after 245 -0.24 the first 4 months of the year. While excise receipts stabilised 240 -0.23 somewhat in 2016, the year still ended over 2% down. 235 -0.22 230 -0.21 As a substantial portion of fuel sales is to non-residents, this up- swing could be partly due to different pump price trends between 225 -0.20 Luxembourg and neighbouring countries. Thus, while the decline in 220 -0.19 the Brent price in recent years involved a reduction in this price 215 -0.18 In EUR/liter differential (filling up in Luxembourg became less attractive in 210 -0.17 In EUR millions terms of savings per litre), the gap has widened recently following 205 -0.16 the upturn in oil prices. On top of this, there were increases in 200 -0.15 excise duties in France and Belgium, mainly in diesel sold to private individuals. 11 Q1 11 Q3 12 Q1 12 Q3 13 Q1 13 Q3 14 Q1 14 Q3 15 Q1 15 Q3 16 Q1 16 Q3 17 Q1 Oil excise duty (seasonally adjusted data) Average difference of pump prices: Lux.
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