Handbook on the compilation of statistics on illegal economic activities in national accounts and balance of payments 2018 edition MANUALS AND GUIDELINES Handbook on the compilation of statistics on illegal economic activities in national accounts and balance of payments 2018 edition Printed by the Publications Office in Luxembourg Manuscript completed in December 2017 Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of the following information. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2018 © European Union, 2018 Reuse is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. The reuse policy of European Commission documents is regulated by Decision 2011/833/EU (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39). Copyright for photographs: © Shutterstock For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not under the EU copyright, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders. Print ISBN 978-92-79-76449-3 doi:10.2785/319535 KS-05-17-202-EN-C PDF ISBN 978-92-79-76448-6 doi:10.2785/0256 KS-05-17-202-EN-N Foreword Foreword In September 2014, when illegal prostitution, the production and trafficking of illegal drugs, and the smuggling of tobacco and alcohol products were included in the measurement of EU Member States’ economic activity, it generated a lot of media attention and people asked why this change was being made. In fact, there are international standards that date back to the 1990s requiring that illegal activities that represent ‘market transactions’ (i.e. are based on mutual agreement) be recorded in a country’s GDP. The latest version of the UN’s system of national accounts (2008 SNA) mentions two kinds of illegal activity: • activities that are not illegal per se, but which become illegal if carried out by unauthorised persons, e.g. unlicensed practitioners or unauthorised lotteries; and • activities that are against national law regardless of who carries them out, e.g. illegal transportation in the form of smuggling of goods or people, the production of and trade in narcotics, illegal prostitution. National accountants and balance of payments statisticians view illegal economic activities from a purely statistical perspective. Standards are set by national accounting experts from around the world so as to reflect reality (rather than to make moral judgements) and to ensure that individual countries’ accounts are not affected by institutional peculiarities. Illegality is not universal or immutable. Goods and services that are illegal in some countries (e.g. drugs, prostitution and alcohol) may be legal and quite acceptable in others and what is illegal one day may become legal the next. Some illegal goods and services (e.g. gambling and prostitution) may be no more objectionable on moral grounds than legal products such as neutron bombs or nerve gas. Accounting for illegal economic activity is also necessary to preserve comparability between and within countries over time. Estimating the extent or value of illegal economic activities for national accounts and balance of payments statistics is clearly problematic, because direct observation is often out of question. Nevertheless, they can be of considerable importance, not only in terms of painting a reliable picture of production, but also because of their effects on income distribution, consumption, gross saving and net lending/borrowing. Measuring illegal economic activities is difficult, but information and guidance are available. Information may be obtained from administrative and law enforcement records, estimates of key inputs or major uses, and special research. Statistical institutions and data users have increasingly recognised the need for comprehensive, reliable and internationally available information on illegal economic activities in national accounts and balance of payments statistics. To this end, this Handbook provides guidance on: • the concepts and definitions of illegal economic activities; • recommended methodological frameworks for compiling data; and • data sources and statistical techniques for recording illegal economic activities. We also touch on wider issues of growing interest that go beyond the recommendations on core IEAs (1) formulated by the Gross National Income (GNI) Committee (2), and include country cases that provide practical guidance for Member States starting to compile, or improving the compilation of, IEA statistics. This Handbook is intended to help national accounts and balance of payments statistics compilers to produce IEA statistics in a consistent and coordinated way, and as a guide for users of such statistics. Ales Capek Head of Unit C5: Integrated Global Accounts and Balance of Payments (1) Core IEAs are prostitution, the production and trafficking of illegal drugs, and the smuggling of alcohol and tobacco products. (2) As established under Council Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 1287/2003 of 15 July 2003 on the harmonisation of gross national income at market prices (GNI Regulation) (OJ L 181, 19.7.2003, p. 1). Handbook on the compilation of statistics on illegal economic activities in national accounts and balance of payments 3 Acknowledgements Acknowledgements This Handbook is the result of the joint work of the members of the task force on the recording of IEAs in national accounts and balance of payments statistics: Matthias Ludwig (chair, Eurostat), Rita Mesias (Eurostat), Marios Papaspyrou (Bank of Greece), Hilary Cadogan (Central Statistics Office, Ireland), Brian Ramsbottom (Central Statistics Office, Ireland), Federico Sallusti (ISTAT, Italy), Miriam Tagliavia (Banca d’Italia), Robert Michaux (STATEC, Luxembourg), Durmus Göker (Statistics Sweden), Carmen Picon-Aguilar (European Central Bank), Pedro Polvora (European Central Bank), Richard Caine (European Commission – DG Migration and Home Affairs), Luca Pappalardo (European Commission – DG Migration and Home Affairs), Isabelle Ioannides (European Parliament - European Parliamentary Research Service), Ilcho Bechev (Eurostat), Diana Cucu (Eurostat), Andreas Dollt (Eurostat), Robert Dunn (Eurostat), Henk Nijmeijer (Eurostat), Christian Ravets (Eurostat), and David Brackfield (OECD). Each chapter was drafted by a lead author and subsequently reviewed by the task force members. The lead authors were Hilary Cadogan (Central Statistics Office, Ireland), Brian Ramsbottom (Central Statistics Office, Ireland), Stjin Krzeszewski (Statistics Netherlands), Sander IJmker (Statistics Netherlands), Durmus Göker (Statistics Sweden), Richard Caine (European Commission – DG Migration and Home Affairs), Luca Pappalardo (European Commission – DG Migration and Home Affairs), Isabelle Ioannides (European Parliament - European Parliamentary Research Service), Ilcho Bechev (Eurostat), Robert Dunn (Eurostat), Matthias Ludwig (Eurostat) and Rita Mesias (Eurostat). Their willingness to contribute to the Handbook and to undergo in-depth reviews of their work by the other members of the task force and experts, and in the course of consultations of the BOP working group, the NA working group and Eurostat management is testament to their commitment and enthusiasm. The following experts took part in meetings of the task force and provided valuable input for individual chapters: Milen Kolev (National Statistical Institute, Bulgaria), Merja Myllymäki (Statistics Finland), Michele Giammatteo (Banca d’Italia), Matthew Salomon (Global Financial Integrity, Washington D.C., USA), Professor Dr. Brigitte Unger (Professor of Public Sector Economics, Utrecht School of Economics, Utrecht University, the Netherlands), Professor Dr. Olha Cherednychenko (chair in European Private Law and Comparative Law, University of Groningen; director of the Groningen Centre for European Financial Services Law, the Netherlands), Dr. Dev Kar (Global Financial Integrity, Washington D.C., USA), Thomas Ljungquist (European Commission – DG Justice and Consumers), Álvaro Rodríguez Gaya (Europol European Migrant Smuggling Centre), Jennifer Macleod (Europol – Financial Intelligence Unit), Sarah McLaughlin (European Commission –European AntiFraud Office (OLAF)) and Enrico Bisogno (UNODC). The Handbook contains a number of useful examples and case studies. Most of these are from the EU (Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom), but the inclusion of cases from Australia, Columbia, Serbia and Ukraine ensures a wider geographical scope and illustrates the international nature of work on the statistical estimation and recording of IEAs. The statistical offices and central banks of Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Luxembourg, Portugal, Turkey, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey and the United Kingdom, Dr. Dev Kar (Global Financial Integrity, Washington D.C., USA), Professor Dr. Brigitte Unger, the European Commission’s DG for Economic and Financial Affairs, the ECB, the IMF, the UNODC and the OECD all provided important comments in the general consultations that helped us finalise the Handbook. Rita Mesias and Ilcho Bechev collected the contributions to the Handbook and organised the meetings and international consultations. 4 Handbook on the compilation of statistics on illegal economic activities in national accounts and balance of payments List of contributors List of contributors Chapter 1: Introduction Principal author: Rita Mesias (Eurostat) Other contributor: Isabelle Ioannides (European Parliament European Parliamentary