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OONN TRACKT R A C K SUMMER / ÉTÉ 2009 VOLUME 14, NUMBER 2 Afghanistan: The Next Phase Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Rationale for War The Dragon in the Hindu Kush: China’s Security Interests in Afghanistan The Military Training Assistance Programme CANSOFCOM Offshore Anarchy: Building Stability at Sea and Ashore North Korea: What is the Succession when Kim Jong-il Dies? Photo by Warrant OOfffi ccerer CCarolearole MMorissette,orissette, CCanadiananadian FForcesorces CCombatombat CCameraamera CCanadiananadian FForcesorces / PPhotohoto FForcesorces ccanadienneanadienne pparar AAdjudantdjudant CCarolearole MMorissette,orissette, CCaméraaméra ddee ccombatombat ddeses FForcesorces ccanadiennesanadiennes DONOR PATRONS of the CDA INSTITUTE DONATEUR PATRONS de l’INSTITUT de la CAD Mr. Keith P. Ambachtsheer Colonel (Ret’d) John Catto Dr. John Scott Cowan Brigadier-General (Ret’d) James S. Cox Colonel The Hon. John Fraser Jackman Foundation (1964) Senator Colin Kenny Brigadier-General (Ret’d) W. Don MacNamara Lieutenant-Colonel W. Morrison Mr. David Scott Senator Hugh D. Segal Lieutenant-General (Ret’d) Jack Vance COMPANIONS of the CDA INSTITUTE COMPAGNONS de l’INSTITUT de la CAD Admiral (Ret’d) John Anderson Mr. Robert Booth Mr. Paul Chapin Mr. M. Corbett Colonel (Ret’d) Douglas A. Fraser Major-General (Ret’d) Peter Gartenburg Colonel (Ret’d) Charles R. Keple Major-General (Ret’d) Reginald W. Lewis Colonel (Ret’d) Gary Rice Royal Military College Club of Canada Foundation Colonel (Ret’d) Ben Shapiro Brigadier-General (Ret’d) T.H.M. Silva Lieutenant-Colonel (Ret’d) Ernest Skutezky Rear-Admiral (Ret’d) Ken Summers OFFICER LEVEL DONORS to the CDA INSTITUTE DONATEURS de l’INSTITUT de la CAD - NIVEAU d’OFFICIER Major-général (Ret) Clive Addy Lieutenant-Colonel (Ret’d) J.A. Bélanger Lieutenant-général (Ret) Charles H. Belzile Breakout Educational Network Mr. Paul Brunelle Honourary Colonel James Burns Lieutenant-General (Ret’d) L.W.F. Cuppens General (Ret’d) John de Chaastelain Honourary Colonel Blake Goldring Dr. J.L. Granatstein Brigadier-General (Ret’d) Sheila Hellstrom Mr. Ian D. Isbester Mr. Ted Itani The Hon. R.A. Jacobson Mr. Jon Jennekens Mr. Albert Kranenburg Lieutenant-General (Ret’d) William Leach L3 Communications Colonel (Ret’d) Brian MacDonald General (Ret’d) Paul D. Manson Lieutenant-Colonel Markus C. Martin The Hon. Dwight Mason Colonel (Ret’d) William McCullough Colonel (Ret’d) Donald Bruce McGibbon Colonel (Ret’d) Conrad A. Namiesniowski Captain (N) (Ret’d) Charles M. Nicholson The Hon. David Pratt Major (Ret’d) Angus V. Read Lieutenant-Colonel (Ret’d) David L. Stinson Major (Ret’t) Miroslaw Szulc Lieutenant-Colonel (Ret) Lucien Villeneuve Lieutenant-Commander Arnold R. Westerbert General (Ret’d) Ramsey Withers Brigadier-General (Ret’d) W. Yost Mr. W. H. Young OONN TRACKT R A C K contents contenu VOLUME 14 NUMBER 2 SUMMER / ÉTÉ PRESIDENT / PRÉSIDENT Dr. John Scott Cowan, BSc, MSc, PhD VICE PRESIDENT / VICE PRÉSIDENT FROM THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR............................................................4 General (Ret’d) John de Chastelain, OC, CMM, CD Colonel (Ret’d) Alain Pellerin LE MOT DU DIRECTEUR GÉNÉRAL............................................................4 EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR / DIRECTEUR GÉNÉRAL Colonel (Ret) Alain M. Pellerin, OMM, CD Colonel (Ret) Alain Pellerin AFGHANISTAN: THE NEXT PHASE.............................................................9 SECRETARY-TREASURER / SECRÉTAIRE TRÉSORIER Colonel Ian Hope Lieutenant-Colonel (Ret’d) Gordon D. Metcalfe, CD AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN AND THE RATIONALE FOR WAR...........12 HONOURARY COUNSEL / Louis Delvoie AVOCAT-CONSEIL HONORAIRE AFGHANISTAN AND THE MYTH OF PEACEKEEPING.........................14 Mr. Gavin Freitag Colonel (Ret’d) Sean Henry THE DRAGON IN THE HINDU KUSH: CHINA’S SECURITY PUBLIC AFFAIRS / RELATIONS PUBLIQUES Captain (Ret’d) Peter Forsberg, CD INTERESTS IN AFGHANISTAN...................................................16 Arnav Manchanda and Thomas Adams PROJECT OFFICER / AGENT DE PROJET CANADIAN MANŒUVRE TRAINING CENTRE: Ms. Bonnie Butlin, MA A WORLD-LEADING TRAINING FACILITY..............................20 DEFENCE POLICY ANALYST / Lieutenant-Colonel Daniel MacIsaac ANALYSTE DES POLITIQUES DE DÉFENSE COMING TO GRIPS WITH THE INVISIBLE HAND: Mr. Arnav Manchanda, MA UNDERSTANDING SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES.............23 Colonel Bernd Horn Conference of Defence Associations Institute 222 Somerset Street West, Suite 400B OFFSHORE ANARCHY: BUILDINGSTABILITY AT SEA & ASHORE...25 Ottawa ON K2P 2G3 Captain Brian Wilson and Commander James Kraska LONG-WAVE THEORIES AND THE CANADIAN FORCES.....................29 PHONE / TÉLÉPHONE Colonel (Ret’d) Howard Marsh (613) 236 9903 NORTH KOREA: e-mail / courriel: [email protected] WHAT IS THE SUCCESSION WHEN KIM JONG-IL DIES?.....31 Vernie Liebl website / site web: www.cda-cdai.ca NATO AT 60: SECURING OUR FUTURE?.................................................36 ON TRACK is published by the Conference of Defence Major Eric Dion Associations Institute (CDA Institute). The views ex- pressed in ON TRACK are those of the authors and do MILITARY TRAINING ASSISTANCE PROGRAMME...............................40 not necessarily represent those of the CDA Institute Andrew Rasiulis and Sara Fortin ON TRACK est publié par l’Institut de la Conférence des as- sociations de la défense (l’Institut de la CAD). Les points Book Review...................................................................................................43 de vues exprimés dans ON TRACK reflètent les vues des au- teurs et pas nécessairement ceux de l’Institut de la CAD. “A History of the Royal Canadian Air Forces Police and Copyright © 2008. ISSN 1916-6699 ON TRACK (Print) (im- Securiy Services” primé) Copyright © 2008. ISSN 1916-6702 ON TRACK (Online) (en ligne) Permission is granted to reproduce, in whole or in part, articles from ON TRACK. COVER PHOTO: The Naval Boarding Party returns to Her A credit line is desired. For inquiries contact the Public Af- Majesty’s Canadian Ship (HMCS) Winnipeg after they fairs Offi cer, Captain (Ret’d) Peter Forsberg, CD , at: (tel) (613) launched a rigid hulled inflatable boat (RHIB) in the Gulf of 236 9903; (fax) (613) 236 8191; (e-mail) [email protected]. Aden. PHOTO DE LA PAGE COUVERTURE: L’équipe navale Permission est accordée de reproduire en tout ou en partie des articles de ON d’arraisonnement regagne le Navire canadien de Sa Majesté TRACK. Nous souhaitons que la source soit mentionnée. Pour demander des ren- seignements, contactez l’agent des affaires publiques, le Capitaine (ret.) Peter Fors- (NCSM) Winnipeg. Elle avait quitté le navire, à bord d’une berg, CD au (tél) 613-236-9903; (fax) 613-236-8191; (courriel) [email protected] embarcation à coque rigide (RHIB), dans le golfe d’Aden. ON TRACK FROM THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR MOT DU DIRECTEUR GÉNÉRAL This summer edition of ON Ce numéro d’été de ON TRACK TRACK features articles of current interest présente des articles d’actualité intéressants in the areas of, among others, preparing dans des domaines comme la préparation des Canadian troops for deployments, Canadian troupes canadiennes pour les déploiements, Special Operations Forces Command, the le Commandement – Forces d’opération Military Training Assistance Programme, spéciales du Canada, le Programme d’aide à CF personnel challenges, Afghanistan, l’instruction militaire, les défis du personnel Korea, China’s security interests, pirates, des FC, l’Afghanistan, la Corée, les intérêts de a financial outlook, a follow-up to the la Chine en matière de sécurité, les pirates, un Graduate Student Symposium, and a book Colonel (Ret) Alain M. Pellerin, OMM, CD aperçu financier, un suivi du symposium des review. étudiants diplômés et des comptes rendus de lecture. Colonel Ian Hope’s article, “Afghanistan: The Next L’article du Colonel Ian Hope, «Afghanistan: The Next Phase,” identifies a paradigm shift occurring under the Phase», identifie un changement de paradigme qui est en train Obama administration, one which will achieve greater US de se produire sous l’administration Obama, et qui réalisera unity of command in the coming months. Prior to 2011, in fact une plus grande unité de commandement américain dans les probably by the end of 2009 or early 2010, Canada needs to prochains mois. Avant 2011, en fait, probablement dès la fin consider its options as NATO/ISAF is displaced by US Central de 2009 ou au début de 2010, le Canada doit considérer ses Command. The shift is informed by the US administration’s options au moment où l’OTAN/FIAS sera déplacé par le US acceptance of two main factors: Pakistan as the insurgency’s Central Command. Le changement est façonné par le fait que centre of gravity, and NATO’s failure to recognize the true l’administration américaine accepte deux facteurs principaux parameters of the insurgency in the Southern and Eastern : le Pakistan comme le centre de gravité de la sédition et provinces. l’incapacité de l’OTAN de reconnaître les vrais paramètres de la sédition dans les provinces du Sud et de l’Est. Louis Delvoie reviews the policy rationales that Louis Delvoie examine les assises, en termes de advanced the engagement by NATO allies in military politiques, qui ont avancé l’engagement par les alliés de operations in Afghanistan. He then outlines two ‘nightmare’ l’OTAN dans les opérations militaire en Afghanistan. Il scenarios for the political future of Pakistan and argues that décrit ensuite deux scénarios “cauchemards” pour l’avenir neither of the scenarios is entirely improbable. Monsieur politique
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