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Mizoram State CLIMATE RESEARCH AND SERVICES INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES PUNE Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes over Mizoram State Met Monograph No.: ESSO/IMD/HS/Rainfall Variability/18(2020)/42 Pulak Guhathakurta, Arti Bandgar, Preetha Menon, Ashwini Kumar Prasad, Neha Sangwan and S C Advani GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT Met Monograph No.: ESSO/IMD/HS/Rainfall Variability/18(2020)/42 Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes Over Mizoram State Pulak Guhathakurta, Arti Bandgar, Preetha Menon, Ashwini Kumar Prasad, Neha Sangwan and S C Advani INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT PUNE - 411005 1 DOCUMENT AND DATA CONTROL SHEET 1 Document Title Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes Over Mizoram State 2 Issue No. ESSO/IMD/HS/Rainfall Variability/18(2020)/42 3 Issue Date January 2020 4 Security Unclassified Classification 5 Control Status Uncontrolled 6 Document Type Scientific Publication 7 No. of Pages 24 8 No. of Figures 42 9 No. of References 3 10 Distribution Unrestricted 11 Language English 12 Authors Pulak Guhathakurta, Arti Bandgar, Preetha Menon, Ashwini Kumar Prasad, Neha Sangwan and S C Advani 13 Originating Climate Research Division/ Climate Application & User Division/ Group Interface Group/ Hydrometeorology 14 Reviewing and Director General of Meteorology, India Meteorological Approving Department, New Delhi Authority 15 End users Central and State Ministries of Water resources, agriculture and civic bodies, Science and Technology, Disaster Management Agencies, Planning Commission of India 16 Abstract India is in the tropical monsoon zone and receives plenty of rainfall as most of the annual rainfall during the monsoon season every year. However, the rainfall is having high temporal and spatial variability and due to the impact of climate changes there are significant changes in the mean rainfall pattern and their variability as well as in the intensity and frequencies of extreme rainfall events. The report brings the result of the analysis based on the recent 30 years of data (1989-2018) on the mean spatial rainfall pattern as well as mean spatial pattern of different rainfall events, trends and variability as well as extreme rainfall events during the monsoon months and annual for the state. 17 Key Words Rainfall trend, variability, extreme events, dry days 2 1. Introduction Mizoram state is situated between 21°58’N to 24°35’N latitude and 92°15' E to 93°29' E longitude. It has a geographical area of over 21,087 Sq. km. The tropic of Cancer passes near the capital of the state, Aizwal town. Mizoram occupies the southeast corner of northeastern region of India. Its geographical borders with Assam and Manipur in north and Tripura in west extended over 123 km, 95 km and 277 km respectively. It shares about 404 km long international boundary on the east and south with Myanmar and 318 km on the west with Bangladesh. Mizoram is a land of mostly rolling hills, rivers and valleys. There are 21 major hills ranges of different heights which run through the length and breadth of the state with the highest peak 'Phawngpui hill (Blue Mountain) towering 2,065 metres above mean sea level. The mountain ranges are mostly aligned in south direction in parallel series. The ranges are separated from one another by narrow deep river and valleys. The hills are extremely rugged and steep in the state. There are some small patches of flat lands. Eastern part of the state has mainly mountainous topography and overall elevation is higher and steeper slopes than in the western part of the state. The elevation in the eastern part varies from 400 to 2065 m and average elevation in the eastern region is about 1000 m. The western part of the state is characterized by ridge and valley type topography where average elevation is about 450 m. Many studies available on the observed trends and variability of rainfall and also extreme rainfall events over India, but all the studies are based on past 100 years or more data and also the recent years are not included (Guhathakurta et al, 2015; Guhathakurta et al, 2011; Guhathakurta & Rajeevan, 2008 etc). Also, there are limited studies on district rainfall trends and variability of Mizoram state. In the present report all the analysis of observed rainfall patterns, trends and variability have been done based on recent past 30 years (1989-2018) that will help to have idea of the recent changes for climate change adaptation and management by the state authorities. 2. Data and Methodology Daily Rainfall data from 1989 to 2018 is considered for analysis of trend variability and mean rainfall patterns. From the daily rainfall data monthly rainfall series of each stations are computed and then monthly district rainfall series has been constructed by considering arithmetic average of all the station rainfall values within the district. The monthly rainfall series of the state has been computed by using area 3 weighted rainfall values of all the districts within the state. Fig.1 gives the location of the districts of the state. The objective of the analysis is to: 1. Identify the spatial pattern of the mean rainfall 2. Understand district wise observed rainfall trend and variability in annual and SW monsoon season (June, July, august and September). Daily station rainfall data is utilized for identification of the mean spatial patterns and rainfall intensity trends. From mean and standard deviation (SD), the coefficient of variation (CV) is calculated as follows: Standard Deviation Coeffcient of variation (CV) = × 100 Mean Fig. 1 Location of the districts of Mizoram 3. State rainfall mean and variability and trend Table 1 shows the mean rainfall (mm) and coefficient of variation of the state for the monsoon months, southwest monsoon season and annual during the period 1989-2018. It can be seen that the state gets highest rainfall (27%) of south west monsoon rainfall in August month 4 while the June month get 26% of the south west monsoon rainfall. July and September receive 25% and 22% of south west monsoon rainfall. Also around 67% of annual rainfall receives during the southwest monsoon season only. The variability of monsoon or annual rainfall is also very less. June July August September JJAS Annual Mean 430.6 420.0 447.1 368.8 1666.6 2483.2 C V 29.2 30.4 30.9 24.9 19.0 15.6 Table 1 Mean rainfall (mm) and coefficient of variation of the state for the monsoon months, southwest monsoon season and annual Fig. 2 and 3 show the time series of rainfall in mm for the months of June, July, August, September and southwest monsoon season, annual respectively. The trend lines are also displayed for each of the series. Neither monthly rainfall nor seasonal or annual rainfall show any significant increasing/decreasing trend. In the monthly rainfall all the monsoon months rainfall show increasing trend. However seasonal rainfall shows increasing trend and annual rainfall does not show any trends. During the last 30 years highest rainfall of June and July received in the year 2003 (755.1mm and 814.4mm) respectively while highest rainfall of 1034.1mm in August received in the year 2017 and of 609.7mm in September received in the year 2007. Highest annual rainfall of 3866.0mm received in the year 2017 and highest southwest monsoon rainfall of 2967.5mm received in the year 2017. 5 Fig. 2 Time series of rainfall in mm for the months of June, July, August, September and trends Fig. 3 Time series of rainfall in mm for the southwest monsoon season and annual trends 6 4. District rainfall mean, variability and trend 4.1 Mean and coefficient of variation Table 1 gives the rainfall statistics for the districts of Mizoram for the four monsoon months, southwest monsoon season and annual while Fig. 4 - 5 show the spatial pattern of these statistics. It can be seen that Kolasib district receives highest rainfall over other districts during all the months and season. Rainfall receives over the district are around 410-435mm in June, 414-442mm in July, 472-502mm in August, 365-386mm in September and during the SW monsoon 1719-1818mm and annual 2629-2693mm. Lowest rainfall receives during the SW monsoon season over Champhai district (1314.7mm). Also, Champhai district receives lowest annual rainfall (2037.6). JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER MONSOON ANNUAL DISTRICT MEAN CV MEAN CV MEAN CV MEAN CV MEAN CV MEAN CV AIZWAL 430.9 29.6 412.4 31.6 447.3 18.5 369.7 26.6 1660.3 13.1 2593.4 12.1 CHAMPHAI 335.0 46.4 332.2 45.2 347.8 39.9 299.7 44.2 1314.7 38.0 2037.6 47.8 KOLASIB 433.6 40.1 435.5 43.2 494.7 40.9 368.9 47.6 1732.6 34.6 2674.5 48.4 LAWNGTLAI 455.2 53.5 469.1 58.0 385.0 50.0 354.0 50.2 1663.3 47.0 2428.7 51.7 LUNGLEI 459.9 47.9 468.8 44.7 502.5 50.4 407.8 35.3 1839.0 37.1 2572.7 48.5 MAMIT 412.3 53.6 340.9 52.5 434.0 49.4 351.1 57.8 1538.3 46.9 2549.6 52.0 SAIHA 447.6 43.3 418.4 50.9 443.4 45.5 401.9 51.7 1711.3 39.7 2564.5 50.0 SERCHHIP 453.5 49.2 422.2 42.5 393.0 30.9 336.8 35.5 1605.5 28.8 2391.2 46.8 Table1. Rainfall statistics for the districts of Mizoram for the four monsoon months, southwest monsoon season and annual 7 Fig.4 Mean rainfall pattern over districts of Mizoram 8 Fig.5 Coefficient of Variation (%) over districts of Mizoram 4.2 Trend in district rainfall Fig.6 shows the trends in district rainfall for (a) June, (b) July (c) August (d) September (e) JJAS and (f) annual.
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