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Oil and Gas Industry Multiplier Effect

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Oil and Gas Industry Multiplier Effect OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY MULTIPLIER EFFECT Upstream oil and gas sector has a multiplier effect on the growth of the national economy, ranging from the use of local products to transactions through national banking. This sector is one of the major contributors to the national economic growth reaching US$ 23.7 billion in 2016. CONTRIBUTION OF UPSTREAM OIL AND GAS SECTOR TO GDP Local Procurement (US$ billion) 60% 57% 54% 68% 48% 5.1 4.6 5.5 2.6 2.5 Every investment of 11.5 9.3 11.8 5.3 3.1 US$1 MILLION 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Creating added value of n Goods Services US$ 1.6 MILLION The ratio of local content to the expenditure Transactions through the National Additional GDP of Banking System (US$ billion) Upstream oil and gas GDP in 2016 US$ 0.7 MILLION 9.3 8.2 12.4 3 9.7 US$ BILLION Creation of job opportunity of 23.7 ± 100 PEOPLE contributing 3.3% to GDP 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 SOURCE: SKK MIGAS, BANK INDONESIA @KATADATAnews katadatanews katadatanews www.katadata.co.id OIL AND GAS INVESTMENT DECREASES REGIONAL ECONOMIES SLOW DOWN Oil and gas sector has caused an economic slowdown in a number of producing regions in which this sector is a major contributor to the economic growth. Rokan Hilir, Riau Bengkalis, Riau Kampar, Riau 2015:1.0 % 2015:-2.7 2015:1.1 2014: 4.1% 2014: -3.9 2014: 3.4 Siak, Riau Kutai Kartanegara, East Kalimantan 2015:-0.2 2015: 2014: -1.0 -7.6 Penajam Paser Utara, 2014: -1.5 East Kalimantan 2015:0.2 Tanjung Jabung Timur, 2014: 4.4 Jambi Sorong, West Papua 2015:1.9 2014: 5.8 2015:2.3 2014: 3.1 Musi Banyuasin, Natuna, Riau Island South Sumatra 2015:3.3 2015: 2.3 2014: 3.5 Economic growth 2014: 4.7 SOURCE: BPS, MINISTRY OF FINANCE @KATADATAnews katadatanews katadatanews www.katadata.co.id OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION SHIFTS TO DEEPWATER AREAS Upstream oil and gas activities in Indonesia have begun to shift from old onshore fields to offshore and deepwater areas. Most oil and gas reserves potential is still largely unexplored, although over the last three years, offshore oil and gas working areas (WK) have always dominated the Government auction. INDONESIA’S HYDROCARBON POTENTIAL of oil and gas Conventional Work Areas Offered reserves are 3 4 5 1 0 2 70% located in offshore 9 4 7 areas 2014 2015 2016 n Onshore Onshore-Offshore n Offshore Deep Sea Exploration Challenges Expensive investment cost Drilling of one well costs US$ 80-100 million Basins already in production (16 areas) Low investment rate of return (IRR) IRR projects in Indonesia are 55% Basins with hydrocarbons found, not yet in production (7) lower than the average IRR of 30 Basins not yet explored (22) global deepwater gas projects Drilled basins, hydrocarbon not yet found (15) Long exploration period 10 years SOURCE: MEMR, WOOD MACKENZIE, REUTERS, KATADATA @KATADATAnews katadatanews katadatanews www.katadata.co.id LICENSING ISSUES HAMPER OIL AND GAS INVESTMENT Licensing is one of the major barriers to investment in the upstream oil and gas sector. In addition to the large number of licences required, the procedures to obtain them take a long time. Data from The Coordinating Ministry for The Economy, as of February 2017, indicates 373 types of licences needed from 19 central and regional institutions. LICENCE COMPLEXITY FROM MINISTRIES/AGENCIES 137 • Increased Developments and Constructions MEMR Transportation Finance Min. Labour Min. Navy Defense Min. Public MMAF Min. Works Min. 74 (52) 76 (58) 16 (14) 16 (14) 9 (2) 4 (3) 2 (-) 2 (-) Note: () in 2015 • Stayed the Same Police Information Min. Law Min. Land Min. Industry Min. Nuclear Private Land 373 Agency Owner LICENCE TYPES 19 11 4 3 3 3 2 Increasing from 341 • Reduced (2015) Regency/City Province Environment Trade Min. Min. 53 (66) 29 (35) 36 (40) 11 (12) Note: () in 2015 117 Survey and 10 109 Impacts of Complex Licensing Exploration Post-Operation Production Activities Expensive production Increase of Prolonged production cost Cost recovery activities SOURCE: THE COORDINATING MINISTRY FOR THE ECONOMY, SKK MIGAS @KATADATAnews katadatanews katadatanews www.katadata.co.id INVESTMENT DECREASES, OIL AND GAS RESERVES SHRINK The fall in crude oil prices occurring since mid-2014 caused oil and gas contractors to improve efficiency, including by reducing investment spending. As a result, the national oil and gas reserves decreased due to the lack of exploration activities. EXPLORATION AREA AND RESERVES DECREASE 110 Active Work Areas of oil and gas Exploration 52 Areas 233 238 235 228 199* Unconventional Work Areas of oil and gas 37 Work Areas Oil Reserves in termination process (million barrels) 3.741,3 3.692,5 3.624,5 3.602,5 3.306,9 Gas reserves (TSCF) 103,3 101,5 100,3 98,0 101,2 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Exploration Investment Decreases (US$ Billion) Causes of Investment Decline Oil price decline Low in return 1,3 1,4 1,1 0,5 0,1 Period of discovery to Constraints in extension of the production takes 15 years working areas and legal certainty 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* Land acquisition constraints and Low ratio between reserve replacement *) Data as of November 2016 lengthy licensing bureaucracy and successful exploration. SOURCE: SKK MIGAS. MEMR @KATADATAnews katadatanews katadatanews www.katadata.co.id INDONESIAN OIL AND GAS INVESTMENT CLIMATE RANKS THE LOWEST IN ASEAN The 2016 Policy Perception Index Survey released by the Fraser Institute shows the oil and gas investment climate in the country is less competitive compared to neighbouring countries. The declining attractiveness of the investment climate can be seen from the reducing number of parties interested in the auction of oil and gas working areas (WK) in the last two years. Myanmar Cambodia Philippines WK Auction Lacks Enthusiasts* 50 18 21 11 17 Rank* 67 72 52 33 6 11 0 0 RRR** No discovery and (2009-2013) 51% production since 45 2005 Thailand Vietnam Brunei Darussalam 42 38 31 161 221 141 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 n Total number of areas offered n Total number of winners *) Conventional and unconventional Malaysia Factors that are being evaluated 41 Indonesia among others include high taxes; the burden of regulatory obligations; 141 79 uncertainty of environmental *) of 96 jurisdictions regulations and upstream oil and gas **) Reserves Replacement Ratio: The amount of proved reserves added to the reserves base industry regulations; and also concerns compared to the amount of production 51 about political and security stability. SOURCE: MEMR, WOOD MACKENZIE, FRASER INSTITUTE, SKK MIGAS, MEDIA COVERAGE @KATADATAnews katadatanews katadatanews www.katadata.co.id LARGE FUNDS NEEDED TO MAINTAIN PRODUCTION The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has handed over to Pertamina the management of eight oil and gas Blocks of which contract period expires in 2017-2018 and these eight Blocks require a lot of funds. Up until 2021, there are 17 other Blocks that will be terminated. 7. North Sumatra Offshore 2. Ogan Komering 8. East Kalimantan Funds Needed (US$ MILLION) JOB Pertamina - Chevron Indonesia 412.3 PHE NSO Talisman Ogan Komering Company 8 blocks October 15th, 2018 February 28th, 2018 October 25th, 2018 1910 25 0,1 thousand bpd 2,1 thousand bpd 12,1 thousand bpd Terminated Blocks 20,2 mmscfd 6,3 mmscfd 68,1 mmscfd US$ 13,26 million US$ 1,1 million US$ 56,4 million 1. Attaka bpd : barrel per day mmscfd : million standard cubic INPEX Corporation feet per day March 31st, 2017 5. South East Sumatra 6,6 thousand bpd CNOOC SES Ltd n/a th September 5 , 2018 US$ 4,9 million 30,9 thousand bpd 3. Tuban 4. Sanga-Sanga 6. Tengah 70,9 mmscfd JOB Pertamina- Virginia Indonesia US$ 229,5 million Petrochina East Java Ltd Company (VICO) Total E&P Indonesie th th th Note: February 28 , 2018 August 7 , 2018 October 4 , 2018 Operator Oil Estimated 3,4 thousand bpd 14,9 thousand bpd n/a operating End of Contract Gas expenses in a year 2,3 mmscfd 200,2 mmscfd n/a SOURCE: MEMR, WOOD MACKENZIE, KATADATA US$ 1,7 million US$ 105,4 million n/a @KATADATAnews katadatanews katadatanews www.katadata.co.id OIL AND GAS LIFTING THREATENED BY FURTHER DECLINE In the next 5 years, as many as 25 oil and gas blocks will end their contract period. If the transfer process for the Blocks is not prepared now, this situation has the potential to decrease the national oil and gas daily lifting rates. POTENTIAL DECLINE IN OIL & GAS LIFTING LIFTING PORTION OF 25 TERMINATED 107 1756 9 84 251 49 OIL AND GAS BLOCKS 820 4 oil and gas blocks 3 oil and gas blocks 4 oil and gas blocks 374 • Offshore North West Java • Jambi-Merang • Bentu Segat • Mahakam • Pendopo & Raja • Rokan • Lematang • Bula • Selat Panjang 2016 2021 • Attaka • Seram-Non Bula 2018 2020 6685 4384 2017 65 390 2019 14 22 2021 2016 2021 8 oil and gas blocks 6 oil and gas blocks Note: Oil • Tuban • B Block • Makassar Strait – • Salawati (thousand barrels per day) • Ogan Komering • Tengah Offshore Area A • Kepala Burung • Sanga-Sanga • NSO/NSO Ext • South Jambi Block B • Malacca Strait Gas (million cubic feet per day) • South East Sumatra • East Kalimantan • Brantas SOURCE: MEMR, SKK MIGAS @KATADATAnews katadatanews katadatanews www.katadata.co.id OIL AND GAS JOB OPPORTUNITIES ARE SCARCE The declining interest in oil and gas investment in Indonesia has resulted in a decrease in the recruitment of new workers in the sector. As a result, graduates with technical qualifications in the field of oil and gas have slim chance to work and fulfill their potential.
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