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2 Modeling Fundamentals for Electricity Systems with Renewable Energy Sources 9 2.1 Energy System Modeling

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2 Modeling Fundamentals for Electricity Systems with Renewable Energy Sources 9 2.1 Energy System Modeling Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Lehrstuhl für Energiewirtschaft, Prof. Dr. Möst Christoopph Philipppp KKoost RReenneewwaabble eennerggyy in NNoorthth AAffrriccaa: MMooddeelingng ofof fuutture electtrricityty sscceenarios aanndd thehe impmpaacctt oonn manuffaacctuurring and eemmpploymmeennt Schriften des Lehrstuhls für Energieewwirtschaft, TU Dresden S eries of the chair of energy economics, TU Dresden Voolume 7 i Renewable energy in North Africa: Modeling of future electricity scenarios and the impact on manufacturing and employment Dissertation zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades Doctorum rerum politicarum (Dr. rer. pol.) vorgelegt an der Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften der Technischen Universität Dresden am 10. Oktober 2014 von Dipl.-Wi.-Ing. Christoph Philipp Kost geb. 22. November 1982 in Tübingen Verteidigt am 4. Juni 2015 Betreuender Hochschullehrer Gutachter Prof. Dr. Dominik Möst Prof. Dr. Dominik Möst Technische Universität Dresden Prof. Dr. Edeltraud Günther Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften Lehrstuhl für Energiewirtschaft Abstract The transition of the North African electricity system towards renewable energy technologies is analyzed in this thesis. Large potentials of photovoltaics (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP) and onshore wind power provide the opportunity to achieve a long-term shift from conventional power sources to a highly interconnected and sustainable electricity system based on renewable energy sources (RES). A multi-dimensional analysis evaluates the economic and technical effects on the electricity market as well as the socio-economic impact on manufacturing and employment caused by the large deployment of renewable energy technologies. The integration of renewable energy (RE) into the electricity system is modeled in a linear optimization model RESlion which minimizes total system costs of the long-term expansion planning and the hourly generation dispatch problem. With this model, the long-term portfolio mix of technologies, their site selection, required transmission capacities and the hourly operation are analyzed. The focus is set on the integration of renewable energy in the electricity systems of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt with the option to export electricity to Southern European countries. The model results of RESlion show that a very equal portfolio mix consisting of PV, CSP and onshore wind power is optimal in long-term scenarios for the electricity system. Until the year 2050, renewable energy sources dominate with over 70% the electricity generation due to their cost competiveness to conventional power sources. In the case of flexible and dispatchable electricity exports to Europe, all three RE technologies are used by the model at a medium cost perspective. The socio-economic impact of the scenarios is evaluated by a decision model (RETMD) for local manufacturing and job creation in the renewable energy sector which is developed by incorporating findings from expert interviews in the RE industry sector. The electricity scenarios are assessed regarding their potential to create local economic impact and local jobs in manufacturing RE components and constructing RE power plants. With 40,000 to 100,000 new jobs in the RE sector of North African countries, scenarios with substantial RE deployment can provide enormous benefits to the labor market and lead to additional economic growth. The deployment of renewable energy sources in North Africa is consequently accelerated and facilitated by finding a trade-off between an optimal technology portfolio from an electricity system perspective and the opportunities through local manufacturing. By developing two model approaches for evaluating the effects of renewable energy technologies in the electricity system and in the industrial sector, this thesis contributes to the literature on energy economics and energy policy for the large-scale integration of renewable energy in North Africa. iii Acknowledgement This dissertation would not have been possible without the support and guidance of a large group of people who contributed to this work on different ways. First, I am very thankful to Prof. Dr. Dominik Möst for supervising this thesis and supporting me with scientific guidance and profound discussions during the whole process in the last years. I also want to thank my co-advisor Prof. Dr. Edeltraud Günther who was in the thesis committee and gave me additional comments and advice. For providing me the opportunity and freedom to work on this thesis at the Fraunhofer Institute of Solar Energy Systems ISE in Freiburg, I especially thank Dr. Thomas Schlegl. He has supported me with fruitful and challenging discussions on the development of a renewable energy based electricity system in North Africa. Furthermore, I want to thank all of my colleagues in my research group at the Fraunhofer ISE and our research partners at the Fraunhofer ISI. With regard to this thesis, we worked together in the Fraunhofer Internal Program »Markets of Tomorrow« which supported our research under the Grant No. 823 813 Project »Supergrid«. From my colleagues, I want to express special thanks to Jessica Thomsen who was very supportive and patient throughout the last years when we worked on our research topics side by side in the institute. I thank Verena Jülch, Niklas Hartmann, Charlotte Senkpiel and Noha Saad for our common work and scientific discussions on many different research topics. I always liked the productive, friendly and communicative atmosphere in our research group. A thank also to Hans Schermeyer and Maximilian Engelken who both worked with me during their master theses on related questions. I am grateful to work in this exciting research field of renewable energy technologies and energy economics. Finally, I am in deep gratitude to my family for being there for me in any situation of life. Table of contents Abstract ii Acknowledgement iii Table of contents iv List of tables viii List of figures xi List of abbreviations xv 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Renewable energy in North Africa ................................................................................................ 2 1.2 Research questions and aim of this thesis ................................................................................. 3 1.2.1 Modeling of electricity systems .......................................................................................... 5 1.2.2 Modeling of manufacturing and employment impact ................................................. 6 1.2.3 Optimal renewable energy scenarios ............................................................................... 6 1.3 Related research .................................................................................................................................. 7 1.4 Structure of thesis .............................................................................................................................. 7 2 Modeling fundamentals for electricity systems with renewable energy sources 9 2.1 Energy system modeling .................................................................................................................. 9 2.2 Electricity models ............................................................................................................................. 16 2.2.1 Classifications and taxonomy ............................................................................................ 17 2.2.2 Differences between operation models and planning models ............................... 20 2.2.3 Typical modeling approaches ............................................................................................ 21 2.3 Optimization models ....................................................................................................................... 23 2.3.1 Basic model structure .......................................................................................................... 23 2.3.2 Objective functions of electricity models ...................................................................... 24 2.3.3 Technical aspects of electricity systems as models constraints ............................ 26 2.3.4 Combining different objectives in energy scenarios ................................................. 27 Table of contents v 2.4 Models for high shares of renewable energy .......................................................................... 28 2.5 Models for North African electricity systems......................................................................... 31 2.6 Conclusions for model development ......................................................................................... 34 3 Electricity system of North Africa 36 3.1 Market structure .............................................................................................................................. 36 3.2 National targets for renewable energy ..................................................................................... 40 3.2.1 Morocco .................................................................................................................................... 40 3.2.2 Algeria ....................................................................................................................................... 41 3.2.3 Tunisia ...................................................................................................................................... 42 3.2.4 Libya .........................................................................................................................................
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