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Market Environment Market Environment 1 MARKET TRENDS IN THE DOWNSTREAM SEGMENT CRUDE OIL PRICES In 2017, the average price of Brent Crude was USD 54/bbl, an increase of 24% y/y. On London-based ICE Futures, a barrel of oil traded at USD 55/bbl in the opening session of 2017, and at USD 67/bbl in the year’s closing session. Changes in crude oil prices [USD/bbl] Source: Own preparation based on Bloomberg. The main drivers of oil prices in 2017 included: • The fastest global economic growth in a few years, leading to higher demand for oil – according to preliminary estimates by IHS Markit, the global crude oil consumption in 2017 rose by 1.8% y/y, with the fastest growing Asian markets seeing an increase of approximately 4% (y/y). • Impact of the production cut agreement reached between OPEC and Russia – also known as the ‘Vienna Alliance’. Saudi Arabia and Russia increased their output almost to the maximum level possible before hammering out the arrangement to keep production volumes stable. In 2017, the average annual volume of oil production by the OPEC countries dropped by 0.1 mb/d, and the low crude prices in the first three quarters of 2017 hindered production growth in non-OPEC countries. Deviation of OPEC crude oil production from the level agreed [mb/d] Source: IHS Markit. Sustained decrease in oil and fuel stocks in OECD countries since mid-2017. The fall in stock levels was supported by the shale band (oil price range defined by fluctuations in the US output in response to changes in oil prices) and a slowdown in the US production in the first half of 2017. In the following months, output in the US was rising in step with the prices; the latter, however, failed to rise above the upper end of the shale band at USD 60/bbl of Brent crude. This occurred only at the end of October, just before the OPEC summit at which the moratorium on crude production was expanded until the end of 2018 and Libya and Nigeria were included in the agreement. Growing political instability and risks, in particular in Iraq and Saudi Arabia – most political risks are not significant, though in the case of Middle Eastern oil markets they affect investors' decisions. Backwardation of oil futures (future prices will be lower than current), resulting from temporary undersupply, which creates a strong incentive for financial investors to take long speculative positions on futures markets. In late 2017, long positions substantially outnumbered short positions, supporting oil price increase above levels reflecting the physical fundamentals of the oil market. Possible directions of oil price changes As industry analysts and investment banks expect in the first half of 2018, the price of Brent crude may rise close to USD 80/bbl. In the second half of 2018, the upward trend should reverse. According to forecasts by JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, the average price of Brent crude in the fourth quarter of 2018 is expected to fluctuate between USD 60 and USD 70 per barrel. Projections by IHS Markit, which focus on the supply and demand on physical markets, suggest that oil prices will return to the fundamental level even sooner and that the crude will trade at approximately USD 60/bbl in late 2018. The main drivers of crude prices in 2018 remain the same as in 2017 and include: Strong growth of global demand, which may be disrupted by the reaction of OECD markets (especially the US) to the rising fuel prices and increased demand for fuels in emerging markets (India, Saudi Arabia), in the context of high inflationary pressures and the ongoing reform of the fuel subsidy system. Strength of the Vienna Alliance. The current extension of the alliance supports the increase of crude prices. The agreement may be expected to continue at least until the price of Brent crude has remained above USD 70/bbl for some time. Potential output increase in the US. With appropriate price signals, the US market may show a significant increase in shale oil output. The extension of the Vienna Alliance and the decline in oil stocks in the US are the main factors driving the potential for growth of shale oil production. Increased geopolitical risks. Traditionally, political risks that can push oil prices up exist in Iraq, Kurdistan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Qatar, and Lebanon. However, significant risks may soon appear in Venezuela (rising debt and political instability, causing further output decline) and Iran (serious risk of further deterioration of relations between Tehran and Washington and re-imposition of sanctions). Fluctuations in the US dollar, which has depreciated against the euro and the currencies of emerging economies in the last year. DOWNSTREAM – PRODUCTION AND SALES 2017 was another good year (after 2015 and 2016) for the global refining industry. Refining margins in Europe increased year on year, driven mainly by exceptionally extensive unplanned shutdowns of the refining capacities. In 2018, global refining margins are expected to come close to the levels seen in 2016 but below those of 2017. Net refining margins in Europe [USD/bbl] Source: IHS Markit. In the short- and medium-term perspective, refining margins in Europe will be shaped by competitive pressures. The main drivers include: the advantage of enjoyed by US and Middle East refineries due to low energy cost vs relatively high energy costs in Europe; upgrades of European refineries aimed at deepening crude conversion; and the growing competitiveness of exports from Middle East producers which now supply fuel not only to Asia but also to Europe. In a longer term, the margins will depend on the demand for refining products as well as on projects to replace and increase oil production capacities (higher risk of impairment of production assets in the future affects the producers’ willingness to invest in such assets). Until 2020 and beyond, the key drivers of refining margins will include: IMO Regulations concerning sulfur content in bunker fuels, to come into force in 2020 – sulfur content is to be reduced from 3.5% to 0.5% as of January 1st 2020. Both the refining sector and the shipbuilding industry have responded to the requirement only to a limited extent so far, which increases the likelihood of major disruptions in the oil market. Industry analysts predict a significant premium for crude oil and refining products with lower sulfur content. Potential decline in fuel supply from Russia by 2020, caused by the IMO regulations. As more stringent bunker fuel standards come into force, prices of high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) will fall sharply. This will have a particularly detrimental effect on Russian refineries, as heavy fractions make up a significant part of their output. Major refinery upgrade projects aimed at reducing sulfur content and increasing volumes of gasoline production are delayed and probably will not be completed before January 2020. In order to reduce sulfur content (and HSFO volumes), Russian refineries may have to cut back crude throughput, which may result in lower gasoline volumes being sold on the Russian market and exported. The latest EU regulations on biofuels. The regulations enacted for 2021-2030 will limit the share of first generation biofuels to 7% of final energy volume used in road and rail transport, while increasing the share of more advanced biofuels, whose production does not compete with the production of food, to 3.5% in 2030. Growing impact of electric cars and broadly defined electromobility on demand expectations and investment in future production. Electric vehicles have been gaining traction for years, but 2017 might have been a breakthrough year for the industry. Launch of the next generation electric cars, largest car makers’ plans to significantly increase electric car production, and the proposed ban on sales of internal combustion engines in the coming decades, as announced by the governments of China, India, France and the United Kingdom, to name just a few, can have a significant impact on the development of the refining industry and its margins. In a longer term, the petrochemical industry may support demand for crude processing products, thus building refining margins – growing application of modern plastics in the global economy. Central and Eastern Europe is among the fastest-growing markets in terms of demand for the type of petrochemical products produced by the ORLEN Group (polypropylene, ethylene, butadiene, paraxylene PTA and PVC). Olefins (ethylene, propylene, butadiene) – strong pressures of imports from Middle East and North America due to the cost advantage. European production, based on kerosene, has been and will continue to be relatively less competitive if crude oil prices continue to grow. Aromatics (benzene, toluene, xylene, paraxylene) – predicted decrease in benzene and toluene production capacities in Western Europe until 2030. Manufacturers of aromatics will seek ways to extend the value chain towards paraxylene and there is a potential risk of rising imports of benzene to Western Europe. Plastics (polyethylene, polypropylene, PVC) – the packaging sector is the largest consumer of plastics in Europe (40% of the demand). Forecast price pressure for ethylene derivatives due to the shale revolution in the US. Demand fluctuations may heavily affect manufacturers who are not very innovative and whose margins are mainly volume-driven. DOWNSTREAM – POWER GENERATION In the New Policies Scenario presented in the World Energy Outlook 2017 report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand for electricity will grow at an average rate of 1.3% a year until 2040 relative to 2016, while the global economy will grow at an annual rate of 3.4%. In this scenario, which describes the target energy system taking into account the existing regulations and announced changes, demand for electricity is forecast to increase from the current 21,375 TWh to 34,470 TWh in 2040.
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