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The Most Likely Futures for US Refining

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The Most Likely Futures for US Refining London Houston Singapore Moscow Dubai New York The Most Likely Futures Portland Calgary for US Refining Santiago Rio de Janeiro Beijing Ed Arnold Shanghai May, 2017 Tokyo Sydney Astana Kiev Cape Town Riga San Francisco Washington Market Reporting Consulting Events High level of uncertainty out 5-7 years Oil prices - Shale oil production trends - OPEC behavior - Asian and Latin American refined products demand MARPOL VI effects - Light-Heavy spread outlook US refined products demand - Domestic demand - Export demand - G/D demand ratio RFS and CAFE regulations Border taxes New pipelines Alberta bitumen Copyright © 2017 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. 3 Oil prices: Long term oversupply is the issue World Oil Demand, Supply and Cumulative Oversupply (Data Source: IEA, March, 2017 Update. Calculations by Argus.) 9.0 1,400 1,200 8.8 1,000 8.6 800 8.4 600 Million bbls Million 400 Billionbbl/quarter 8.2 200 8.0 0 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4 - 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 Global oil demand (left axis) Global oil supply (left axis) Cumulative oversupply since Q1, 2014 (right axis) Early indications are that oil was in oversupply in Q1, 2017. Copyright © 2017 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. 4 Most likely scenario: Sticking in the shale band Light Crude OIL Price History ($2016 basis, monthy average prices, through March, 2017) $/bbl $140 Shale Band: $120 $35 - $65/bbl $100 $80 $60 $40 ? $20 $0 Brent/North Sea Dated LLS Month 1 High probability that monthly average prices will remain volatile, and will stay within the shale band, until shale oil production can’t keep up with demand growth, or until the long-term effects of lower E&P investment take hold. Copyright © 2017 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. 5 MARPOL VI The 2020 global marine fuel sulphur cap is the latest of a series of regulations enforced by the IMO Most likely scenario: Impact on US refining will be significant. Copyright © 2017 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. 6 Implementation in 2020 will bring changes World Bunker Fuel and Resid Demand 12 million bpd 10 8 6 4 2 0 Distillate Component of Bunker Fuel Resid Component of Bunker Fuel World Resid Demand (kbpd) Unless a ship-based option is widely adapted, a significant portion of the ~3mn bpd of high sulphur resid used in bunker fuel will need to find a new home or be converted to low sulphur material Demand for low sulfur distillate will, most likely, increase significantly Copyright © 2017 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. 7 MARPOL VI: Most likely scenario Regional delays in implementation, temporary exemptions, uneven enforcement Plan for multi-year widening of light-heavy spreads High-sulphur distillate will be an undesirable product ULSD distillate demand will increase ULSD prices will rise No significant pre-emptive conversion or desulfurization investment Eventually, look for some additional resid conversion investment Slowly growing shift to marine LNG Wild cards: Longer term L-H spread differentials*, prolonged phase-in for the regulations, uneven enforcement * if this occurs, could incentivize major conversion investment Copyright © 2017 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. 8 Light-heavy product differentials will widen USGC ULSD - 3%HSFO Differential (fob, through March, 2017) $80 $/bbl $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 ? $20 $10 $0 Initial switch will disrupt normal price relationships. Our Creating a stronger incentive for investment in scrubbing. current, most Longer term, prices should return to pre-2020 basis once more vessels are scrubber ready, and as alternative fuel use grows. likely scenario No significant level of preemptive refinery investment, beyond the normal, but will see some additional desulfurization and conversion → capacity. (If long term L-H spread diff, expect conversion investment.) Copyright © 2017 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. 9 Light-heavy oil spread will widen, for a while Light-Heavy Crude Price Differential [Brent & North Sea Dated versus Maya (USGC). Yearly average prices, through 2016] $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 ? $6 $4 $2 $0 Brent & North Sea Dated - Maya (USGC) Differential But – most likely – not long enough to incentivize significant new US resid conversion investment Margins for refiners making HSFO will shrink Copyright © 2017 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. 10 Marine demand to compete for low sulfur distillate Breakdown of Current US Low S Distillate Use Industrial Use Utilities Oil Firms 3.3% 0.9% 1.9% Military Off-Highway 0.2% 3.3% Bunkers 4.0% Commercial Use 4.3% Farms 5.3% Railroads 6.0% Trucks, Buses & Residential Automobiles 6.5% 64.2% Copyright © 2017 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. 11 Ship-board scrubbers Different options available Total installed costs (“TIC”) probably more expensive than most current P50 estimates ($3m to $6m++ for new vessels, and $6m to $10m++ for retrofits) - High level of uncertainty with current TIC estimates. More likely on new ships versus retrofits Space requirement is significant, costing revenue Caustic storage (fresh and spent) and other waste will be a major technical issue. Caustic disposal may be the key implementation-cost issue Can’t install fast enough to fit all large, viable ships If resid conversion or resid desulfurization investment is substantial, scrubber investors could be “burned” 12 US gasoline demand finally above 2007 levels US - Yearly Domestic Gasoline Component Demand 10,000 ’000 bpd 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 Petroleum- 7,500 derived gasoline 7,000 demand not yet up to 6,500 2004 levels 6,000 5,500 5,000 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Ethanol used in gasoline Gasoline and blendstock imports US-produced oil derived gasoline for domestic use -Data from EIA. Calculations by Argus. Copyright © 2017 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. 13 US gasoline output continues to grow US- Yearly Refinery Gasoline Production 9,000 ’000 bpd 8,500 US gasoline & 8,000 blendstock exports 7,500 7,000 6,500 US-produced oil derived gasoline for 6,000 domestic use 5,500 5,000 - Data from EIA. Calculations by Argus. Gasoline export growth has been accelerating the last 4 years Most likely export demand scenario: Demand growth rate will gradually shrink Most likely US demand scenario: RFS continues as is. Only moderate changes to CAFE policy. (“54.5 in 2025”). Demand growth shrinks and eventually disappears. Copyright © 2017 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. 14 US gasoline inventories at all time highs 2016 and 2017 US Gasoline Inventory Levels Million bbls 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 2001 - 2015 inventory range 180 2016 inventory levels 170 2017 inventory levels 160 1 3 5 7 9 11131517 1921232527293133353739 414345474951 Week Number This places downward pressure on gasoline prices (and oil prices) Copyright © 2017 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. 15 US distillate demand dropped in 2016 US- Yearly Domestic Distillate Demand 5,000 ’000 bpd 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Biodiesel Distillate imports US-produced distillate for domestic use -Data from EIA. Calculations by Argus. Copyright © 2017 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. 16 US total distillate production dropped in 2016 US - Yearly Refinery Distillate Production 5,000 ’000 bpd 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Distillate exports US-produced distillate for domestic use -Data from EIA. Calculations by Argus. 2016 growth in distillate exports could compensate for loss in domestic demand. Most likely scenario: Flat to slowly declining demand, until MARPOL VI hits, then look for tight market to develop. Copyright © 2017 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. 17 US distillate inventories near all time highs 2016 and 2017 US Distillate Inventory Levels Million bbls 190 170 150 130 110 90 2001 - 2015 inventory range 70 2016 inventory levels 2017 inventory levels 50 1 3 5 7 9 111315171921232527293133353739414345474951 Week Number This places downward pressure on distillate prices (and oil prices) Copyright © 2017 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. 18 G/D demand ratios have stopped dropping US - Yearly US G/D Demand Ratios 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 US G/D Domestic Demand Ratio US G/D Domestic + Exports Demand Ratio -Data from EIA. Calculations by Argus. Most likely scenario: This ratio will head back to lower levels once MARPOL VI takes effect Copyright © 2017 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. 19 US refined products exports are still growing US - Major Refined Products Exports 3,500 000 bpd Unfinished Oils 3,000 Jet fuel & other kero. 2,500 Resid fuel oil Pet. coke 2,000 Gasoline & Blendstocks 1,500 Distillate 1,000 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Most likely scenario: This will continue, but expect decelerating growth Copyright © 2017 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. 20 Export product growth rates are variable US- Export Growth Trends for Distillate and Gasoline are On Different Tracks (Rolling CAGRs ) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Distillate NGLs & LRGs Gasoline & Pet. coke Resid fuel oil blendstocks 2012 - 2014 2013 - 2015 2014 - 2016 Copyright © 2017 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. 21 RFS and CAFE, most likely scenarios RFS - RFS stays at current levels - RINS policy does not change CAFE Standards - No significant change - CARB has “clout.” - Car manufacturers do not want to build multiple vehicle types.
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