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Exploiting US Advantages to Prevent Aggression C O R P O R A T I O N Smarter Power, Stronger Partners, Volume I Exploiting U.S. Advantages to Prevent Aggression Terrence K. Kelly, David C. Gompert, Duncan Long For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1359 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9261-8 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2016 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Current U.S. global strategy depends on the capability to project offensive force to distant theaters. However, the proliferation of anti- access and area denial (A2AD) capabilities threatens to undermine this strategy of offensive force projection. The project reported on here— “Changes in Power, Strategy and Capabilities”—set out to examine the effects of trends in military capabilities among potential U.S. competi- tors and propose an alternative way for the United States (and particu- larly for the U.S. Army) to use force, if needed, around the world. This report is the first in a two-volume series. It examines the motivations, technology, and economics behind the adoption of A2AD capabilities; considers why A2AD is so difficult and costly to counter and whether the erosion of U.S. force-projection capabilities is inexo- rable; and assesses how long the United States has to respond or adjust to these changes. A companion report, Smarter Power, Stronger Part- ners, Vol. II: Trends in Force Projection Against Potential Adversaries,1 features a set of warfighting scenarios that support the general analysis presented here. Although the sponsor for this study was the U.S. Army, the authors also sought to inform a broader audience of policymakers who will need to understand and wrestle with the implications of the chang- ing global security context that will drive U.S. strategy. 1 Duncan Long, Terrence K. Kelly, and David C. Gompert, Smarter Power, Stronger Part- ners, Vol. II: Trends in Force Projection Against Potential Adversaries, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR-1359/1-A, in production. iii iv Smarter Power, Stronger Partners This research was sponsored by the U.S. Army Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-8, Army Quadrennial Defense Review Office, and conducted within the RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the United States Army. The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this document is HQD136619. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures and Tables ............................................................... ix Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments ............................................................ xxxi Abbreviations ................................................................. xxxiii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Background ......................................................................... 2 Objectives and Approach .........................................................14 Definitions, Distinctions, and Scope ...........................................15 Organization of This Report .....................................................19 CHAPTER TWO Anti-Access and Area Denial Motivations, Requirements, and Capabilities ..................................................................21 Motivations ....................................................................... 22 Capabilities and Requirements Needed for Anti-Access and Area Denial ........................................................................ 28 Capabilities Needed to Field Anti-Access and Area Denial ................. 36 Combining Motivations and Capabilities ......................................37 Conclusions and Implications .................................................. 40 CHAPTER THREE China, Russia, and Iran ....................................................... 43 China: Motivations and Capability ............................................ 43 v vi Smarter Power, Stronger Partners Russia: Motivations and Capability ............................................ 46 Iran: Motivations and Capability ...............................................52 Assessments and Comparison ...................................................61 Conclusions and Implications ...................................................62 CHAPTER FOUR Force Projection Versus Anti-Access and Area Denial ....................65 Operational Factors ...............................................................67 Geographic Factors ...............................................................74 Technological Factors ............................................................ 77 Economic Factors ................................................................ 84 Conclusions: Integrating Operations, Geography, Technology, and Economics ................................................................... 96 CHAPTER FIVE How Anti-Access and Area Denial Competes with Force Projection: Summary Assessment of Scenarios and Implications ................................................................ 101 Scenario Development .......................................................... 101 Summary of the Scenarios ..................................................... 104 Implications of the Scenarios .................................................. 110 Conclusions ...................................................................... 114 CHAPTER SIX Alternative Counter–Anti-Access and Area Denial Strategies ........ 115 The Alternatives ................................................................. 116 Assessing the Alternatives ...................................................... 133 Conclusions ...................................................................... 134 CHAPTER SEVEN An Integrated U.S. Strategy to Project Power and Prevent Aggression .................................................................. 139 Key Ideas Informing an Integrated Strategy ................................. 141 Elements of an Integrated Strategy ............................................ 145 Enabling Capabilities for an Integrated Strategy ............................ 162 Assessing the Proposed Integrated Strategy .................................. 169 Contents vii Gray-Area Aggression ........................................................... 173 Conclusions ...................................................................... 178 CHAPTER EIGHT The Role of the U.S. Army in the Proposed Integrated Strategy ...... 179 The U.S. Army in Joint and Coalition Anti-Access and Area Denial Operations: How Conflicts Might Play Out ............................ 182 Improving the Survivability and Anti-Access and Area Denial Capacity of Land Forces with New Organizational, Doctrinal, and Technological Approaches ........................................... 211 Increasing Allied Defense Capabilities ....................................... 214 Conclusions and Implications ................................................. 216 CHAPTER NINE Findings and Recommendations ............................................ 219 Findings .......................................................................... 219 Recommendations .............................................................. 228 Further Research Required .................................................... 230 Bibliography .................................................................... 233 Figures and Tables Figures 1.1. U.S. Combat Aircraft and Battle-Force Ships, 1990–2014, with Illustrative Projection to 2025 ................................. 6 1.2. Chinese Missile Launchers and Submarines, 1990–2014, with Illustrative Projection to 2025 ................................. 7 2.1. Defensive and Offensive Motivations for Anti-Access and Area Denial .......................................................... 27 2.2. Danger Zones ........................................................33 2.3. Combining Motivations and Capabilities ........................39 4.1. Changes in Average Costs of U.S. Weapon Systems and Information-Technology Capabilities .............................89 4.2. Projected Gross Domestic Product
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