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Limiting Terrorist Use of Advanced Conventional Weapons THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Support RAND WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND Homeland Security Program View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Stealing theSword Limiting Terrorist Use of Advanced Conventional Weapons James Bonomo Giacomo Bergamo David R. Frelinger John Gordon IV Brian A. Jackson Prepared for the Department of Homeland Security The research described in this report was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate, Office of Comparative Studies, under the auspices of the Homeland Security Program within RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environment (ISE), a division of the RAND Corporation. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Stealing the sword : limiting terrorist use of advanced conventional weapons / James Bonomo ... [et al.]. p. cm. “MG-510”—Back cover. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN-13: 978-0-8330-3965-1 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Weapons systems. 2. Arms control. 3. Terrorism—Prevention. 4. Terrorism— United States—Prevention. I. Bonomo, James. II. Rand Corporation. UF500.S84 2007 363.325'16—dc22 2006017948 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover design by Peter Soriano © Copyright 2007 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2007 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface In this document, we focus on how the United States can shape the environment, including the perceptions of terrorists, to discourage the use of advanced conventional weapons. We review weapons under development, assess prospective and previous terrorist uses of such weapons, identify ways to make particular kinds of weapons less attrac- tive to terrorist groups, and explore reasons that terrorist groups choose or reject certain weapons. The analyses presented here should be of interest to homeland security policymakers who need to understand the threat posed by advanced conventional weapons. Those concerned with developing security or defensive systems can allocate research and development and technology funding to countermeasures and defense systems with the greatest possible potential payoff. Those concerned with training security forces can adjust their curricula and concepts appropriately. And those interested in limiting the access of terrorists to advanced weapons can learn where to focus their efforts. Overall, these efforts should influence terrorist decisionmaking, deterring their use of par- ticular weapons. Related RAND Corporation publications include the following: t Brian A. Jackson, John C. Baker, Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, John V. Parachini, and Horacio R. Trujillo, Aptitude for Destruction, Vol. 1: Organizational Learning in Terrorist Groups and Its Impli- cations for Combating Terrorism (MG-331-NIJ, 2005) t Brian A. Jackson, John C. Baker, Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, John V. Parachini, and Horacio R. Trujillo, Aptitude for Destruction, iii iv Stealing the Sword: Limiting Terrorist Use of Advanced Conventional Weapons Vol. 2: Case Studies of Organizational Learning in Five Terrorist Groups (MG-332-NIJ, 2005) t Kim Cragin and Sara A. Daly, The Dynamic Terrorist Threat: An Assessment of Group Motivations and Capabilities in a Changing World (MR-1782-AF, 2004) t James S. Chow, James Chiesa, Paul Dreyer, Mel Eisman, Theo- dore W. Karasik, Joel Kvitky, Sherrill Lingel, David Ochmanek, and Chad Shirley, Protecting Commercial Aviation Against the Shoulder-Fired Missile Threat (OP-106-RC, 2005). This monograph is one component of a series of studies exam- ining the technology competition between security organizations and terrorist organizations, a critical battleground in the war against terror- ism. This series focuses on understanding how terrorist groups make technology choices and how they respond to the technologies deployed against them. This research was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate, Office of Comparative Studies. The RAND Homeland Security Program This research was conducted under the auspices of the Homeland Secu- rity Program within RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environment (ISE). The mission of ISE is to improve the development, operation, use, and protection of society’s essential physical assets and natural resources and to enhance the related social assets of safety and secu- rity of individuals in transit and in their workplaces and communi- ties. Homeland Security Program research supports the Department of Homeland Security and other agencies charged with preventing and mitigating the effects of terrorist activity within U.S. borders. Projects address critical infrastructure protection, emergency management, ter- rorism risk management, border control, first responders and prepared- ness, domestic threat assessments, domestic intelligence, and workforce and training. Preface v Questions or comments about this monograph should be sent to the project leader, Brian Jackson ([email protected]). Infor- mation about the Homeland Security Program is available online (http://www.rand.org/ise/security/). Inquiries about homeland security research projects should be sent to the following address: Michael Wermuth, Director Homeland Security Program, ISE RAND Corporation 1200 South Hayes Street Arlington, VA 22202-5050 703-413-1100, x5414 [email protected] Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. xi Tables .............................................................................xiii Summary ..........................................................................xv Acknowledgments ............................................................ xxiii Abbreviations ................................................................... xxv CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Study Approach .................................................................... 3 CHAPTER TWO What Types of Advanced Military Weapons Could Become Available to Terrorists? ...................................................... 7 Advanced Small Arms ............................................................. 8 Technological Advance: Airburst Assault Weapons with Smart Ammo .......................................................................10 Technological Advance: Metal Storm’s 100 Percent Electronic Firing Mechanism .........................................................17 Mortar Systems ................................................................... 20 Technological Advance: Gliding and Rocketing to Longer Range ...... 22 Technological Advance: Nonballistic Flight Through Thrusters and Control Fins ............................................................... 27 vii viii Stealing the Sword: Limiting Terrorist Use of Advanced Conventional Weapons Technological Advance: “Fire-and-Forget” IR- and RF-Homing Terminal Guidance ....................................................... 28 Technological Advance: Laser and Fiber-Optic Man-in-the-Loop Terminal Guidance ........................................................29 Technological Advance: GPS-Based
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