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Meråkerbanen Mulighetsstudie JBV 21 02 2011

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Meråkerbanen Mulighetsstudie JBV 21 02 2011 Mulighetsstudie MERÅKERBANEN Meråkerbanen og Mittbanan sin rolle i det midt-nordiske transportsystemet Trondheim 21.februar 2011 Side 2 av 28 Forord Mandag 10. august 2009 ble det holdt ministermøte på Hell i Nord- Trøndelag. I etterkant av dette møtet mottok Jernbaneverket en bestilling på en utredning om utviklingsmulighetene på Meråkerbanen / Mittbanan. Hovedmålet med denne utredningen er å belyse potensialet som ligger i styrking av den norsk-svenske transportaksen over Meråkerbanen og Mittbanan, hvilken effekt elektrifisering på sikt vil ha i forhold til regional utvikling og regionsforstørring i Midt-Norden, og hvilken effekt en satsning på Meråkerbanen forventes å ha i markedene og transportetterspørselen i regionen. Utredningen er gjennomført av Jernbaneverket - Plan og utvikling Nord. Anne Skolmli har vært prosjektansvarlig for utredningen, Tor Nicolaisen har vært prosjektleder og Kjell Morten Haavet prosjektmedarbeider. Utredningen er gjennomført i nært samarbeid med det svenske Trafikverket med kontaktpersonene Kenth Nilsson og Kristina Westerback, og deres samarbeidspartner Vectura, med kontaktpersonene Helena Olsson og Kristin Quistgaard. En ekstern referansegruppe har hatt møter både i Trøndelag og i Jämtland. Gruppen har bestått av representanter fra det offentlige (fylkeskommunene Sør-Trøndelag, Nord-Trøndelag, Nordland, Jämtland, Västernorrland, samt kommunene Trondheim, Sundsvall og Östersund), operatører/næring (Norrtåg AB, NSB, SJ, Veolia, Green Cargo, CargoNet, Avinor, Sundsvalls hamn, Trondheim havn) og vareeiere (NHO, Handelskammaren Jämtland/ Västernorrland, Atlantbanegruppen, Norrskog AB, Norske Skog AS, Norske Skog Jämtland AB, Kjeldstad sag & høvleri, Peterson Ranheim, Eka Chemicals, IKEA, Skistar, Åre Turism, Mittuniversitetet og NTNU). I tillegg er det gjennomført flere idéverksteder med deltakelse fra referansegruppen og andre berørte aktører. Side 3 av 28 Innhold Sammendrag.............................................................................................................................................................5 1 BAKGRUNN OG STATUS ...............................................................................................................................8 1.1 Mandat og bakgrunn for utredningen..................................................................................................8 1.2 Mulighetsstudien og regionale utviklingsprosesser ............................................................................8 1.3 Regional status og utviklingstrekk ......................................................................................................9 2 SCENARIER – FORVITRING ELLER UTVIKLING........................................................................................13 2.1 Fire scenarier....................................................................................................................................13 2.2 Scenario A: Framskrivning av dagens situasjon...............................................................................13 2.3 Scenario B: Moderat satsing.............................................................................................................13 2.4 Scenario C: Elektrifisering ................................................................................................................13 2.5 Scenario D: Harmonisert satsing......................................................................................................14 2.6 Konklusjoner.....................................................................................................................................15 3 REGIONFORSTØRRING ...............................................................................................................................17 4 STYRKING AV DET MIDTNORDISKE TRANSPORTSYSTEM.................................................................21 Kilder .......................................................................................................................................................................26 Vedlegg....................................................................................................................................................................27 Vedlegg 1: Utredningsmandat. Samferdselsdepartementet, 9.desember 2009 Side 4 av 28 Sammendrag Meråkerbanen ble bygget ferdig til Trondheim i 1881. Første del av Nordlandsbanen (Hell-Sunnan) ble knyttet til i 1905. Jernbanestrekningen mellom Hell og Storlien er om lag 74 kilometer lang. På svensk side videreføres Meråkerbanen som Mittbanan fram til Sundsvall, og er totalt 358 kilometer lang (Storlien-Sundsvall). Mittbanan er elektrifisert fram til Storlien. For Meråkerbanen er det fastsatt en årlig begrensning for banens transportkapasitet og bæreevne på 2 millioner brutto tonn i blandet trafikk, eller maksimalt en belastning på 1 mill brutto tonn for aksellaster høyere enn 20,5 tonn for godstog. Meråkerbanen og Mittbanan trafikkeres i dag av flere operatører. Persontrafikken på Meråkerbanen består av to daglige avganger hver veg (Nabotoget/Mittnabotåget) mellom Trondheim og Östersund. På Mittbanan er toghyppigheten atskillig større. SJ tilbyr nattog, regionale tog og hurtigtog, og Veolia (i samarbeid med NSB på norsk side) kjører Mittnabotåget, med forbindelse videre mellom Östersund og Sundsvall. På strekningen mellom Östersund og Sundsvall kjøres med elektrisk materiell, mens det er dieseldrift mellom Östersund og Trondheim. I tillegg kjøres det tømmertog med dieseldrift mellom Östersund og Skogn fra 1 til 3 ganger per uke. Meråkerbanen og Mittbanan utgjør, sammen med E14 og flyplassene på Værnes og Östersund/Sundsvall, transportinfrastrukturen i Midt-Norden. Samlet er det ca 790.000 mennesker bosatt i denne regionen, hvor 420.000 er bosatt i Midt- Norge. En modernisering av Meråkerbanen skaper både et regionalt, et nasjonalt, et nordisk og et internasjonalt potensial. Se prinsippskisse med transportstrømmer. Alle kostnadsestimater er fremstilt på utredningsnivå (P50/50). Det er benyttet erfaringspriser for 2007, som er justert til 2010- prisnivå ved hjelp av utviklingen i SSBs byggekostnadsindeks. Scenarier Scenario A: Fremskrivning av dagens situasjon Scenariet forutsetter dagens nivå på drift og vedlikehold av banen. Det vil si en innsats på om lag 10 millioner kr per år. I tillegg er det regnet med noe fornyelse basert på nivået de siste 10 år, dette utgjør i størrelsesorden 20 millioner kr i året. Dagens nøkterne standard og begrensninger (i antall tonn pr.år) videreføres derved. Scenario B: Moderat satsing Scenario B tar, på samme måte som A, utgangspunkt i dagens situasjon, men det føyes så til en moderat vekst i drift og vedlikeholdsbudsjettet for banen. Dette vil utgjøre en økning i vedlikeholdet fra 10 til 20 millioner kr per år, samt en økning fra 20 til 40 millioner når det gjelder fornyelsestiltak. Dette vil gi en mer robust bane og redusere virkningene av ytre påvirkning. Med et fornyelsesnivå på ca 40 mill.pr år vil det kunne foretas skinne og svillebytte som gjør at begrensningen på antall tonn pr. år kan fjernes. Side 5 av 28 Det er nærliggende å anta at resultatet på sikt, selv om det brukes noe mer ressurser, ikke vil gi økt etterspørsel etter togtilbud.. Scenario C: Elektrifisering Scenariet forutsetter en videreføring av drift- og vedlikeholdsstandard som i Scenario B (20 mill + 40 mill) og elektrifisering av banestrekningen fra Hell til Storlien. Følgende tiltak inngår i elektrifiseringen av banen: Drift & vedlikehold ( scenario B) 60 millioner kroner Kabling og elektrifisering av strekningen 540 millioner kroner Omformerstasjon 125 millioner kroner Heving av overgangsbruer 80 millioner kroner Sum, elektrifisering av Meråkerbanen 805 millioner kroner Elektrifisering av Meråkerbanen muliggjør et harmonisert driftsopplegg med elektrisk materiell, både for person og godstrafikk. Meråkerbanen inngår i et banenett med alternative kjøreruter, som grunnlag for vurdering og utvikling av langt flere togtilbud, samt trafikkeringsmuligheter ved hendelser (det vil si styrking av redundans i jernbanesystemet). Elektrifiseringen vil styrke og i større grad synliggjøre denne transportkorridoren i Midt- Norden. Med tilgjengeligheten til havområdene gjennom en rekke havner i og rundt Trondheimsfjorden kan også Meråkerbanen utvikles som en viktig transportkorridor for godsflyt i øst-vest retningen. En elektrifisering av Meråkerbanen skaper dermed et bedre grunnlag for å utvikle jernbanetrafikken både i et regionalt, nasjonalt og internasjonalt perspektiv. Scenario D: Harmonisert satsning Scenariet bygger på utviklingen av en banestandard for Meråkerbanen tilnærmet lik eller bedre enn den som i dag eksisterer på Mittbanan. Her videreutvikles satsingen, togtilbudene og transportetterspørselen fra Scenario Scenario C: Elektrifisering. Dette innebærer en trinnvis gjennomføring av tiltak som øker kjørehastighet, aksellast og sporkapasitet, i et samspill med utviklingen i transportetterspørsel og togtilbud. Tiltakene, i prioritert rekkefølge, består av: Fjernstyring (NB! Innføring av ERTMS vil gi en vesentlig høyere kostnad) 90 millioner kroner Forlengelse av kryssingsspor, Gudå 60 millioner kroner Hastighetsøkende tiltak og fornying, Fase 1 600-850 millioner kroner Nytt kryssingsspor, Sona/Flornes 100 millioner kroner Hastighetsøkende tiltak mellom Hell-Gudå og Kopperå-Riksgrensen, Fase 2 600-800 millioner kroner Forlengelse av kryssingsspor, Kopperå 60 millioner kroner Tiltakene gjennomføres trinnvis for å underbygge trafikkutviklingen,
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