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Calgary Office Market Report

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Calgary Office Market Report Third Quarter 2018 / Office Market Report Calgary Quick Stats Highest positive Downtown office lowest they have been since Brookfield Place absorption in 16 quarters was completed in second quarter 2017, but 22.9% remain well above 20%. This positive news is Calgary Overall Vacancy Calgary’s GDP growth was a country-leading tempered by the expectation of significant 6.3% in 2017, and is expected to be 2.9% tenant movements in fourth quarter 2018, in 2018 and 2.3% in 2019, according to The which may result in net negative absorption Conference Board of Canada. This anticipated for the quarter. The recent announcement 25.2% level of growth will place Calgary amongst regarding Nexen’s move to the Cenovus Downtown Vacancy the highest levels of growth for major sublease space in The Bow will be one Canadian cities. The unemployment rate for of those major factors. Nexen is taking September 2018 is 8.2%, which is moderately approximately 290,000 square feet (sf) in The better than 1 year ago when it was 8.4%. Bow, while leaving behind approximately 19.7% Calgary remains distant from the low of 4.4% 600,000 sf in Nexen Tower; this results in Beltline Vacancy seen in November 2014, but has improved a net negative absorption of 310,000 sf from the peak unemployment rate of 10.3% which would result in a 0.7% increase to the in November 2016. It should be noted vacancy rate. 17.4% third quarter 2018 saw the highest level of quarterly office absorption across the entire Additionally, the announcement of Husky Suburban North Vacancy Calgary office market since fourth quarter Energy’s intention to acquire MEG Energy is 2016 and the Downtown office market another market factor to watch. It remains saw its highest level of quarterly positive premature to determine how this potential merger and acquisition will play out. A 21.1% absorption since third quarter 2014. successful acquisition could potentially result Suburban South Vacancy As of third quarter 2018, the vacancy rates for in additional office space being brought both the overall Calgary office market and to market. It could also be an indicator for Calgary’s Downtown office market are the a trend of other mergers and acquisitions Partnership. Performance. avisonyoung.com Calgary Third Quarter / Office Market Report across the industry. While this would Calgary Overall Meanwhile, each of the Downtown, not be as significant an impact on Suburban North, and Suburban office vacancy and unemployment as ABSORPTION VACANCY RENTAL South office submarkets saw positive (DEMAND) (SUPPLY) RATES witnessed in 2015-16, it would certainly absorption in third quarter 2018. create further challenges with the market. Average asking rents are seeing some The overall vacancy rate decreased to reductions for the highest-quality On the good news side, new projects 22.9% during the third quarter of 2018 properties, but for the time being, with direct ties to Calgary’s energy from 23.5% in second quarter 2018, and the ranges for average asking rents sector have received the green light is down from 23.1% recorded 12 months are remaining stable on medium and recently. The LNG Canada project in ago in third quarter 2017. Across the lower-quality buildings. Quoted taxes Kitimat and two petrochemical project entire Calgary office market, headlease and operating costs average $17.50 per announcements for northern Alberta space (space available directly from square foot (psf) for all building classes, will have positive impacts the landlord) currently represents across the entire city. Class AA buildings for Calgary, as many 77% of Calgary’s overall availability, in average $23.05 psf, class A buildings 22.9% of the companies comparison to 69% 12 months ago. average $18.44 psf, class B buildings OVERALL OFFICE involved have their average $16.69 psf, and class C buildings VACANCY RATE corporate offices in Absorption for the overall Calgary average $14.31 psf. These numbers are Calgary. office market returned to a positive further broken down within the specific position in the third quarter of 2018, area of city sections later in this report. One other interesting factor is both the with positive 385,000 sf being absorbed, It is important to note that assessments University of Alberta and the University returning the Calgary office market to for office properties are seeing a of Calgary have expanded their software positive year-to-date absorption for divergence. Average assessments have engineering programs, including the 2018 (366,000 sf). The only submarket been decreasing in the Downtown addition of a master’s program. These in Calgary to see negative absorption office market over the course of the are good steps for creating a talent in third quarter 2018 was the Beltline, downturn, while the suburban office base for the Tech Industry as a method to diversify our economy. The success of these efforts can already be seen HistoricalHis Pricetorical Pofric Oile of VersusOil versu Calgarys Calgary DDowntownowntown Off iOfficece Vacan Vacancycy Rate Rate $180 30% thanks to the recent announcement of Source: U.S. Energy Information MobSquad receiving funding and grants Administration, Avison Young $160 to expand their remote technology 25% start-up team member matching $140 business. ) l e $120 20% r r a b r ) Oil prices have been stable, but the e % ( p $100 e S t U a $ differential between WTI and WCS R ( 15% y e c c n i r (the price paid for most oil in Alberta) $80 a c P a t V o reached a five-year high differential in p S I T $60 10% September 2018 of $29.71 per barrel W according to Baytex Energy. Recovery in $40 Calgary remains sluggish and uneven, 5% but the trend lines continue to show $20 improvement. $0 0% l l l l r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r t t t y y y y i i i i y y y y y y y y y y y y e e e e h h h l l l l s s s r r r r r r r r r r r r e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e a a a a c c c n n n n u u u u a a a a a a a a u u u r r r p p p p b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b u u u u J J J J M M M M u u u u u u u u a a a g g g o o o o A A A A J J J J r r r r m m m m m m m m m m m m t t t t n n n n u u u M M M b b b b e e e e e e e e e e e e c c c c a a a a A A A t t t t e e e e J J J J c c c c v v v v O O O O p p p p F F F F e e e e o o o o e e e e D D D D N N N N S S S S 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 WTI Monthly Spot Price Calgary Downtown Office Vacancy Rate WTI Monthly Spot Price Calgary DT Office Vacancy Rate 2 | Partnership. Performance. avisonyoung.com Calgary Third Quarter / Office Market Report Overall Calgary Office Vacancy markets have seen slight increases in to be completed. The biggest one average assessments. It will be worth for third quarter 2018 being Parkland Rates watching the City work through their Fuel – a new tenant to the Downtown Overall Calgary Office Vacancy Rates tax review as there has been dialogue market – expanding and relocating 30% about shifting more of the tax burden to 111,000 sf in BP Centre from the away from the downtown out to the Suburban Northeast. Activity by smaller 25.2% 25% suburbs. tenants continues to be noticeable 22.9% with demand for space under 5,000 sf 6.28% 21.1% There were two new buildings 19.7% continuing to being high. It is expected 20% 5.34% 4.48% completed in third quarter 2018 – 17.4% that rental rates will continue to be 5.24% both in the Suburban North office 2.14% under pressure and inducements market. Approximately 530,000 sf of 15% (such as free rent and improvement new office space, in three buildings, allowances) remaining substantial. remains under construction across 10% 18.96% 17.60% Calgary, with 39% pre-leasing in place. As Calgary looks forward, flight-to- 16.62% 15.22% 14.44% The majority of this is in Downtown quality is expected to be a major 5% (86%), with the remainder located in component of the market. With rental the Suburban South (14%). There are rates and inducements being attractive, no office properties remaining under tenants are showing a strong interest 0% Downtown Beltline Suburban Suburban Overall North South construction in the Beltline or Suburban in moving into better quality buildings, Headlease Vacancy Sublease Vacancy Total Vacancy North. while keeping their cost structure stabilized. This ideology is supported by Energy and energy servicing companies the trend seen with lower vacancy rates continue to make up a large share of the for those buildings considered to be the leasing transactions being recorded and best in their respective submarkets.
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