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Thesis Submitted for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Towards a Relational Theorisation of Counterrevolution and Revolution: The Case of Modern Egypt 1805-2013 Ibrahim Halawi School of Politics, International Relations & Philosophy Royal Holloway, University of London April 2019 A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Abstract This thesis provides a theorisation of counterrevolution and revolution as continuous, interrelated, and evolving processes involving contentions over access to resources. Since, as this thesis argues, revolution and counterrevolution are contentions over access to resources, to understand both requires that we examine, not rising levels of anger or dissent, but structures of resource access. Moreover, since the contentions which define revolution and counterrevolution are best understood as continuous and inter-related processes, the events which are conventionally defined as ‘revolution’ and ‘counterrevolution’ are treated, in this thesis, as episodes of intensification within continuous processes. Finally, because of their inter-related continuity, both revolution and counterrevolution are seen as continuously evolving: neither phenomenon is static nor separable, either from each other or from its past experiences; as processes, both continue through learning from and building on previous contentions. To test these hypotheses, the thesis surveys the dominant counterrevolutionary and revolutionary contentions over a period of time within a given polity, using a combination of methods derived from political economy, elite studies, and historical sociology. It applies these methods to an examination of counterrevolution and revolution in contemporary Egypt, starting with the formation of the modern Egyptian polity in the 19th century and ending in the aftermath of the revolutionary outbursts of 2011. Drawing on primary and secondary sources on Egypt’s political history, state formation, social and economic development, labour politics, gender politics, and political and economic elite, the thesis locates counterrevolution in Egypt within a long history of continuous and evolving contentions by different political actors and ideologies seeking to exclude the mass of the population from access to strategic resources and the rewards of development. Similarly, it shows that the revolutionary demands of the Arab Spring, ‘Bread, Freedom, Social Justice’ are not merely the product of a revolutionary moment, but the culmination of a history of contentions for more inclusive access to resources. Through the case of Egypt, the thesis seeks to reveal the academic potentials of developing an understanding of ‘revolution’ and ‘counterrevolution’ as more than the events to which these terms conventionally refer, and of studying each as evolving and intrinsically related. TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1 Why Counterrevolution Matters 1. Introduction 1 2. Contemporary Schools of Thought on Revolution 3 2.1 Marxist Theories 4 2.2 Psychological Theories of Revolution 8 2.2.1 The Anatomical School 8 2.2.2 Frustration-Aggression School 9 2.3 International Structure School 11 2.4 Power Relations Theory 14 3. Studies of Counterrevolution 17 4. The Argument and Theoretical Framework 21 4.1 Conceptualising the Political Setting 22 4.2 Passive Revolution and Counterrevolution 25 5. Methodology 26 6. The Organisation of the Study 27 Chapter 2 Theorising Counterrevolution and Revolution: Continuous, Evolving, and Inter-Related 1. Introduction 29 1.1 Theoretical Argument 31 2. The Setting of Counterrevolution and Revolution 35 3. Passive and Intensive Counterrevolution and Revolution 37 3.1 Passive Counterrevolution and Revolution 38 3.2 Evolving Counterrevolution and Revolution 42 3.3 Intensive Counterrevolution and Revolution 45 4. The Question of Outcomes 47 Chapter 3 A Method for Studying Counterrevolution and Revolution 1. Introduction 49 2. The Temporal and Spatial Dimensions 49 2.1 Counterrevolution and Revolution as Historical Processes 49 2.2 The Spatiality of Counterrevolution and Revolution 51 3. Case Study 53 3.1 Egypt’s Timeframes (1800s-2013) 55 3.1.1 T1 – Liberal Oligarchy (1800s-1950s) 57 3.1.2 T2 – Populist Authoritarianism (1954-1970) 60 3.1.3 T3 – Neoliberal Authoritarianism (1970-2011) 62 3.1.4 T4 – Episode of Intensification (2011-2013) 64 4. Research Limitations 68 5. Ethical and Security Considerations 69 6. Conclusion 70 Chapter 4 The Beginning of Modern Counterrevolution and Revolution in Egypt: Liberal Oligarchy (1800s-1954) 1. Introduction 71 2. The Beginning of Modern Counterrevolution 73 2.1 The Turko-Egyptian Landowning Class 75 2.2 European Contenders 76 2.3 The Emergence of Counterrevolutionary Nationalist Contenders in the 19th Century 77 3. The Beginning of Modern Revolution 79 4. Counterrevolutionary Nationalist Contenders at the Turn of the Century 81 5. Counterrevolution and Revolution in the Interwar Period 86 5.1 The Evolution of Modern Counterrevolution 89 5.2 The Evolution of Modern Revolution 94 6. Post-World War II Intensification 96 Chapter 5 The Nasserist Counterrevolution: Populist Authoritarianism 1. Introduction 99 2. Prelude to the Coup 101 2.1 The Evolution of the Free Officers 102 3. Post-Coup Intensification (1952-1956) 104 4. Counterrevolution and Revolution Between 1957 and 1962 108 4.1 Regional Counterrevolution and Revolution 111 5. Counterrevolution and Revolution Between 1962 and 1967 113 6. Conclusion 116 Chapter 6 Counterrevolution and Revolution in Post-Nasser Egypt: Neoliberal Authoritarianism 1. Introduction 117 2. Counterrevolution and Revolution Under Sadat 119 2.1 Counterrevolution Between 1977 and 1981 123 2.2 The Brotherhood’s Counterrevolution 124 3. Counterrevolution and Revolution Under Mubarak (1981-1990) 126 4. Counterrevolution and Revolution Under Mubarak (1990-2011) 132 5. Conclusion 138 Chapter 7 Episode of Intensification (2011-2013) 1. Introduction 140 2. Prelude to 2011 Intensification 141 3. 18 Days of Revolutionary Intensification (January 25-February 11) 145 4. SCAF Counterrevolutionary Intensification (February 2011-June 2012) 149 5. Brotherhood’s Counterrevolutionary Intensification (June 2012-July 2013) 156 6. Military-led Counterrevolutionary Intensification (July 2013-?) 162 7. Conclusion 167 Chapter 8 Conclusion 1. Theoretical Contribution 169 2. Findings 171 3. Limitations 173 4. Moving Forward 176 Bibliography 177 Acknowledgments I would like to express my gratitude to my supervisor, Prof. Sandra Halperin, who was generous with her time, attention and feedback. I have learned invaluable lessons from her avid engagement with my research. Also, without her exceptional support from the very beginning, I would not have had the privilege of receiving a faculty award to fund my thesis. I would also like to thank my mother for being a great inspiration to me. It is her intelligence and energy which I carry. And I have no better source to reference on this matter than my dear stepfather, Phil, whose wisdom and warmth turned out to be imperative to me. I would also like to thank my loving sister, Anna, who has generously supported me throughout my research period. I also wish to express my deep gratitude to Sarah, my cousin and friend, whose unconditional love, trust, and support I continue to enjoy and learn from. My fondest appreciation goes to my fiancé, Rayan, who, despite being oceans apart, has somehow managed to maintain her warm presence around me with thoughtful gestures. Her patient smile and abundant love are my most precious findings. And I look forward to learn more from her humility and kindness. I would also like to thank Rima, my dearest friend, for being another inspiring woman in my life, who taught me lessons in strength and perseverance. Special mention to my mentor, Bassel Salloukh, who makes me see the glass as half full, literally and metaphorically. Last but not least, I dedicate this modest work to the women and men, across the Arab world, who have risked their lives, and continue to do so, in the pursuit of bread, freedom, and social justice. I owe my political consciousness to them. CHAPTER 1 WHY COUNTERREVOLUTION MATTERS 1. Introduction The popular uprisings that unfolded in the Arab world in 2011 threw into question arguments advanced by influential and widely-cited theories of revolution, as well as those concerning what the Orientalist literature refers to as ‘Arab Exceptionalism’ – the absence of revolutions against authoritarianism in the Middle East and the incompatibility of Arab culture with democracy.1 However, like much of the history of revolutions, the high expectations raised by the heroic non-violent mobilisation of millions of citizens of Arab countries demanding social justice and a more inclusive system were, for the time being, disappointed; and the outcomes of these mobilisations produced confusion, even among prominent Middle East scholars. Some have sought to resolve this confusion by critically exploring the nature of the outcomes and situating it in broader and comparative historical context.2 Others have resorted to culturalist and Orientalist explanations, or, at best, to the liberal dichotomies of static authoritarianism or dynamic democratisation.3 Why is there such ambiguity about the nature and outcomes of the Arab uprisings? A brief look into the history of revolutions and scholarly explanations of this history reveals that academic ambiguity about revolutionary outcomes extend beyond the Arab world and the peculiarities of the so-called ‘Arab Spring’. Scholars generally tend to characterise outcomes similar to those of the
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