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Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses www.rsis.edu.sg ISSN 2382-6444 | Volume 11, Issue 1 | January 2019 A JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND TERRORISM RESEARCH (ICPVTR) Annual Threat Assessment Global Threat Forecast Southeast Asia Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand and Singapore South Asia Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Central Asia Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan Uyghur Violence and Jihadism in China and Beyond Evolving Jihadist Landscape in the Middle East Islamic State’s Online Social Movement Lifecycle: From Emergence to Repression in Southeast Asia Assessment of Islamic State’s Ideological Threat Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses Volume 9, Issue 4 | April 2017 1 Building a Global Network for Security ADVISORY BOARD Dr. Jolene Jerard Dr. Stephen Sloan Research Fellow, Deputy Head of Professor Emeritus, International Centre for Political The Universty of Oklahoma Violence and Terrorism Research, Lawrence J. Chastang, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Distinguished Professor, Terrorism Studies, The University of Central Florida Dr. Rohan Gunaratna Professor of Security Studies Dr. Fernando Reinares S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Director, Program on Global Terrorism, Elcano Royal Institute Professor of Security Dr. Kumar Ramakrishna Studies, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Associate Professor Madrid, Spain Head of Policy Studies & Coordinator of National Security Studies Programme, Dr. John Harrison S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Associate Editor Journal of Transportation Security Dr. Marcin Styszyński Assistant Professor, Dr. Hamoon Khelghat-Doost Adam Mickiewicz University Senior Lecturer in Political Science Department of Arabic and Islamic Studies Science University of Malaysia EDITORIAL BOARD Senior Editorial Advisor Vijayalakshmi Menon Editor-in-Chief Sara Mahmood Associate Editors Abdul Basit Jennifer Dhanaraj Amresh Gunasingham Copy Editor Sylvene See Design and Layout Okkie Tanupradja The views expressed in the articles are those of the authors and not of ICPVTR, RSIS, NTU or the organisations to which the authors are affiliated. Articles may not be reproduced wtihout prior permission. Please contact the editors for more information at [email protected]. The editorial team also welcomes any feedback or comments. GLOBAL THREAT FORECAST 2019 The global terrorist and extremist threat is operations and battle-hardened Foreign likely to persist in 2019 as the Islamic State Terrorist Fighters (FTFs) returning home (IS) is going through a phase of re-adaptation armed with Jihadi ideology, active combat and decentralisation. The group has exposure, expertise in explosive-handling established clandestine and underground and links with underground networks. structures to survive in Iraq and Syria. Its Worldwide government counter-terrorism ideology is still intact and continues to be databases today list about 40,000 IS propagated in cyber space. In the provinces, personalities in 102 countries operating in the groups, networks and cells which have Middle East, Africa, Asia, Europe and North pledged allegiance to IS leader Abu Bakr al America. Presenting a pre-eminent threat, IS Baghdadi are radicalising Muslims and and AQ will continue to mount most attacks conducting attacks. Harnessing both the in the Middle East, Africa and Asia. Similarly, physical and virtual space, IS continues to radicalised personalities and cells of diaspora present an enduring threat worldwide. and migrant communities will strike in North Although the apex of IS leadership and many America, Europe and Australasia. of the directing figures are on the run and might be eliminated in 2019, the penultimate Second, Afghanistan is emerging as an leadership enabling the fight and supporting alternative theatre for foreign and local the infrastructure will continue to operate in fighters in 2019. With the disruption in the the shadows as they become agile and more flow of fighters to Syria and Iraq, and the cunning. The IS and Al-Qaeda (AQ)-centric dispersal of fighters from the IS core to the threats are likely to remain given the lack of periphery, multiple centres of terrorism and an effective global counter terrorism plan and extremism are emerging in the Middle East strategy, the continuation of superpower and (Yemen, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt), geopolitical rivalry, and the failure to resolve Africa (West Africa, East Africa), Western the underlying causes of extremism and Balkans, Caucasus and Asia. However, the terrorism. IS theatre is more pronounced in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region with the Islamic Introduction State Khorasan (ISK) threatening the Afghan Taliban, the Afghan government, and The global threat landscape in 2019 will be Pakistan. In addition to the impact on Central dominated by three major developments. Asia, the threat is moving from tribal Pakistan First, IS is entering a new phase in global to mainland Pakistan, Indian-held Kashmir, expansion. With the depletion of its rank and Xinjiang in western China and Iran. The file in Iraq and Syria from about 60,000 to intermittent terrorist attacks in Kashmir, 5,000-6,000 combat fighters, the IS territorial Xinjiang and Iran are likely to continue. given control in its main theatre has shrunk to 1%, the ongoing geopolitical rivalry, the flow of east of the Euphrates River.1 In any case, weapons and finance to, and the training outside of the physical "caliphate", the acquired by the Afghan Taliban and ISK, groups, networks, cells, and personalities Afghanistan is turning into a new epicenter of loyal to Baghdadi are growing in their regional and global terrorism. Between ideological and operational spaces. These December 2017 and March 2018, as many local entities are reinforced by IS virtual as 69 members of IS core, and between 200 caliphate and emboldened by the dozens of to 300 fighters from Iraq and Syria have IS affiliates and franchises known as wilayats relocated to Afghanistan and this trend is or the external provinces of the caliphate. likely to continue through 2019 as well.2 Driving the globalisation of IS is the media 2 Jason Warner and Charlotte Humle, “The Islamic 1 “After the caliphate: Has IS been defeated?” BBC State in Africa: Estimating Fighter Numbers in Cells News, December 20, 2018, Across the Continent,” CTC Sentinel 11 (7), August https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east- 2018, https://ctc.usma.edu/islamic-state-africa- 45547595. estimating-fighter-numbers-cells-across-continent/. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses Volume 11, Issue 1 | January 2019 1 Third, with the rise of ultra-nationalism, ‘black birds’ (killing betrayers and traitors), ideologies have come to the forefront. ‘tower revolution’ (surveilling, identifying, Communities based on ethnicity and religion selecting and recruiting), fighting inside cities are becoming more polarised, therefore (sparrow teams targeting government and making their peripheries vulnerable to hatred, coalition forces), and ‘great battle’ (fighting in and inciting hate in their core. It is not only built-up areas and open confrontation). To the jihadists but political parties, threat mount pressure on coalition partners to groups, and personalities driven by extreme withdraw, IS is directing, enabling and interpretations of their respective religions inspiring attacks against their own that threaten their opponents, communities homelands. and governments. The intermittent communal clashes, riots and attacks in India, Myanmar IS considers its battlefield defeats in the and Sri Lanka demonstrate how Hinduism Levant as temporary. To compensate for the and Buddhism have been exploited by losses in its heartland, IS seeks to expand religious and political leaders and groups. globally both physically and virtually. IS is Additionally, Islamophobia continues to rise likely to dispatch their Iraqi veterans much in the West and even in countries with like how the AQ dispatched Egyptians to key Muslim majority and minority populations. positions. This is already happening in Similarly, Sunni-Shia relations are further Afghanistan and north Africa where some of strained especially with the growing anti-Iran IS core members have relocated. To staff the and anti-Shia rhetoric in the Middle East and far-flung provinces, the leaders and experts other parts of the Muslim world. While will include FTFs, especially veteran Arabs. conflict between the Houthis and Saudi-led IS’ internal and external wilayats are actively coalition in Yemen is likely to be mediated in waging both a media and a military 2019,3 it is likely that reciprocal intolerance, campaign. While the media campaign seeks extremism and terrorism in both physical and to radicalise the community and generate virtual spaces will affect global peace and recruits, the military campaign is providing security. It is therefore crucial that world training for combat skills, manufacturing leaders make a concerted effort to unite weapons, casing targets, and enabling the divided communities. operators to strike. In addition to its virtual presence instilling hatred and inciting The Context violence, the current and emerging wilayats serve as bastions to draw from IS experience Since IS declared a caliphate in June 2014, and expertise and fight back. Those with multiple coalitions have been fighting IS in difficulties traveling to conflict zones will Iraq and Syria. While the Iraqi, Syrian and mount attacks in their own homelands.
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