3sCE417P3 Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts

ENERGY TRANSFER POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT Allgäu Output 3.3.2

publicity May 2014  public  internet Thorsten Böhm,  print Florian Botzenhart X non public

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF

The sole responsibility for the content of this [webpage, publication etc.] lies with the authors. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Communities. The European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

Contents

1. Energy networks in the Allgäu ...... 5 1.1 Overview of the region ...... 5 1.2 Electricity network ...... 6 1.3 Gas network ...... 7 1.4 Road network for raw materials ...... 9

2. Available regional surplus production of RE ...... 11 2.1 Electricity ...... 11 2.2 Heat ...... 12

3. Daily peaks of electricity production in relation to demands ...... 13 3.1 Scenario 0: Grid situation in 2011 ...... 16 3.2 Scenario 1: Rise of RES-E share to 70 % by increase of PV ...... 20 3.3 Scenario 2: Rise of RES-E share to 70 % by increase of PV and wind power ...... 24 3.4 Scenario 3: Rise of RES-E share to 150 % by increase of all potentials including energy savings ...... 28

4. RE demand in bordering regions ...... 31

5. Present RE transfer possibilities ...... 32

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List of Figures

Figure 1: Map of the model region Allgäu (Source: Allgäu GmbH) ...... 5 Figure 2: Allgäu electricity circuit (220 kV + 380 kV) in 2012 ...... 6 Figure 3: Gas grid of the Erdgas Schwaben GmbH (Source: Erdgas Schwaben) ...... 8 Figure 4: Natural gas supply area of the Allgäu in 2009 (Source: Lutum + Tappert) ...... 9 Figure 5: Road system of the Allgäu (source: https://maps.google.de) ...... 10 Figure 6: Network map of the regional railway traffic (Source: Bayerische Eisenbahngesellschaft mbH 2013) ...... 11 Figure 7: Technical potentials, utilization and surplus for transfer of RES-E in the Allgäu (2011) ...... 12 Figure 8: Technical potentials, utilization and surplus for transfer of RES-H in the Allgäu (2011) ...... 13 Figure 9: Development of installed RES-E in the service area of AllgäuNetz GmbH & Co. KG (April 30 2014) [source: AllgäuNetz GmbH & Co. KG] ...... 14 Figure 10: Number of back feeding events from the AllgäuNetz low voltage grid into the European grid in the years 2009 - 2013 [source: AllgäuNetz GmbH & Co. KG] ...... 15 Figure 11: Load profiles for electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu in 2011 on the 15th day of each month [source eza!] ...... 16 Figure 12: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in January 2011 [source eza!] ...... 17 Figure 13: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in July 2011 [source eza!] ...... 18 Figure 14: Amounts of electricity production, transfer potential (export), import, regional consumption and total consumption in the Allgäu in 2011 [source: eza!] ...... 19 Figure 15: Load profiles for electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu with additional PV installations up to a RES-E share of 70 % on the 15th day of each month [source eza!] ...... 20 Figure 16: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in January with additional PV installations up to a RES-E share of 70 % [source eza!] ...... 21 Figure 17: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in January with additional PV installations up to a RES-E share of 70 % [source eza!] ...... 22

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Figure 18: Amounts of electricity production, transfer potential (export), import, regional consumption and total consumption in the Allgäu with additional PV installations up to a RES-E share of 70 % in the Allgäu [source: eza!] ...... 23 Figure 19: Load profiles for electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu with additional PV installations and wind power plants up to a RES-E share of 70 % on the 15th day of each month [source eza!] ...... 24 Figure 20: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in January with additional PV installations and wind power plants up to a RES-E share of 70 % [source eza!] ...... 25 Figure 21: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in January with additional PV installations and wind power plants up to a RES-E share of 70 % [source eza!] ...... 26 Figure 22: Amounts of electricity production, transfer potential (export), import, regional consumption and total consumption with additional PV installations and wind power plants up to a RES-E share of 70 % in the Allgäu [source: eza!] ...... 27 Figure 23: Load profiles for electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu with additional installations for all RES-E types up to a RES-E share of 150 % including 25 % energy savings on the 15th day of each month [source eza!] ...... 28 Figure 24: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in January with additional installations for all RES-E types up to a RES-E share of 150 % [source eza!] ...... 29 Figure 25: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in January with additional installations for all RES-E types up to a RES-E share of 150 % [source eza!] ...... 30 Figure 26: Amounts of electricity production, transfer potential (export), import, regional consumption and total consumption with additional installations for all RES-E types up to a RES-E share of 150 % in the Allgäu [source: eza!] ...... 31

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1. Energy networks in the Allgäu

1.1 Overview of the region The Allgäu region is part of the superior administration unit "" which belongs to the German state of (see Figure 1). It is the southernmost touristic region of and has about 3 million arrivals with 17 million overnight stays per year. The Allgäu is well known for dairy farming. Besides tourism and agriculture, the mechanical industry, automotive support and packaging industry are essential industry branches. The actual number of residents is at about 650,000. The whole area size of the model region (in terms of NUTS) is 4600 square kilometers. The Allgäu has a good economic infrastructure and in 2012 the unemployment rate was at 3.5 %. The region’s gross domestic product was about 18,294 Mio. Euro in 2009 (Bayerisches Landesamt für Statistik 2013).

Figure 1: Map of the model region Allgäu (Source: Allgäu GmbH)

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1.2 Electricity network The model region Allgäu has an excellent electricity infrastructure which is totally connected to the national transmission power lines. As administrational frontiers divide the model region as defined on NUTS 3 level there is no sufficient mapping of the whole region available. Nevertheless, distribution lines are fully installed in all cities, towns and villages of the region. The Allgäu is equipped with several power supply systems. The 380-kV- and the 220-kV-electric circuit provide the supra national electricity supply.

Figure 2: Allgäu electricity circuit (220 kV + 380 kV) in 2012

The problem with it is that small scale circuits with 20 kV and 50 kV can not cope with the increased energy demands, thus the 110-kV-circuit ensures the interregional energy consumption. For this reason the 110-kV-circuit is going to be enlarged in several areas of the region. Tangible projects are set in the region near Füssen and a conductor to Ronsberg. The regional planning association also points out that an extension of the grid has to be planned

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and operated carefully. Main reasons are nature conservation and nature vulnerability as well as a high level of tourism in the region. The energy demand in the Allgäu is provided by the following 15 electricity network operators:

 AllgäuNetz (Kempten)  LEW Verteilnetz (Augsburg)  Energieversorgung Kleinwalsertal (Rietzlern)  Vorarlberger Kraftwerke (Lindenberg)  Weißachtal-Kraftwerke ()  Elektrizitätsgenossenschaft Rettenberg  Elektrizitätswerk Hindelang  EnBW Regional (Stuttgart)  Energiewerke Reutte (Füssen)  Energienetze Bayer (Regensburg)  Vereinigte Energiewerke (Kaufbeuren)  Stadtwerke Bad Wörishofen  Elektrizitätsgenossenschaft Röthenbach  Elektrizitätsgenossenschaft Schlachters (Sigmarszell)  Stadtwerke

1.3 Gas network The gas grid is owned and operated by the „Schwaben Netz GmbH“ and “Thüga Energienetze GmbH” which have several subsidiary companies in the Allgäu. The cities of Lindau, Lindenberg, Kempten, Kaufbeuren, Marktoberdorf and Buchloe are completely connected to the supra- national circuit already (see Figure 3). Füssen, , and are still waiting for an accession in some areas (Regionaler Planungsverband). In 2011, about 4,900,000 MWh of natural gas were distributed by the gas grid in the entire Allgäu.

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Existing pipe grid Projected grid Collective pipes Foreign grid

Provision due to „Erdgas Schwaben GmbH”

Planed provision due to “Erdgas Schwaben” Downstreamed operators Edge of station responsibility Service area

Figure 3: Gas grid of the Erdgas Schwaben GmbH (Source: Erdgas Schwaben)

The most important gas service company in the Allgäu is “Erdgas Schwaben GmbH” and “Thüga AG”. But there are several other small scale gas service companies in the region (see also ): Landkreis Oberallgäu + Kempten  Erdgas Kempten-Oberallgäu  Stadtwerke Lindenberg Landkreis Ostallgäu + Kaufbeuren  Erdgas Allgäu Ost  Erdgas Schwaben  Stadtwerke Bad Wörishofen Landkreis Unterallgäu + Memmingen  Erdgas Schwaben  Stadtwerke Memmingen Landkreis Lindau  Stadtwerke Lindau  Stadtwerke Lindenberg  Thüga Energienetze

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Figure 4: Natural gas supply area of the Allgäu in 2009 (Source: Lutum + Tappert)

1.4 Road network for raw materials For the logistics of raw materials on short distances truck and railway transportations are often the most economic solutions. Furthermore, the regional road and railway network can be seen as major distribution grid of solid and liquid biomass. The Allgäu has a high standard of infrastructure which includes a well developed road system and rail traffic. The road system is based on two federal motorways which cross the region from the north to the south (A7) and from the west to the east (A96). Both of them are connected to neighboring country . In a continuative view, they are also connected to Italy via the “Brenner”-motorway and to Switzerland via the “Pfänder”-tunnel. Furthermore there are some important federal highways from Kempten to Sonthofen (B19) but also to Kaufbeuren (B12). The regional planning association is at the mind that a continuous development of the road infrastructure is indispensable for the region’s economy and tourism. Especially the traffic which is caused due to the tourism has an imminent influence on some of the region roads especially in the touristic centers like Füssen and Lindau.

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Figure 5: Road system of the Allgäu (source: https://maps.google.de)

The freight traffic provided an overall transportation amount (without transit traffic) of 4,287,728 Tones. 77 % are supplied by lorries. Memmingen is probably the centre of the Allgäu traffic network. It is connected to both motorways, has a middle sized railway station as well as the only regional airport in the region.

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Figure 6: Network map of the regional railway traffic (Source: Bayerische Eisenbahngesellschaft mbH 2013)

2. Available regional surplus production of RE

In this chapter the available regional surplus production of RE is shown for electricity and heat. Thereby all energy amounts as results from the energy balance are considered. In this chapter differences in times of energy production and times of energy consumption, energy losses due to transportation and storage processes are not regarded as well as possibilities on such activities. Thus, merely pure energy amounts are analyzed. In chapter 3 also temporal and seasonal differences of electricity production and consumption are investigated.

2.1 Electricity In the frame of a potential analysis the possibilities of energy savings and the potential for RES-E production were estimated for the Allgäu. Thereby only potentials to be realized within the concept region are regarded. In 2011 energy production by RES-E was at about 1,515,242 MWh (compared to 4,009,347 MWh electricity demand), which corresponds to a RE-share of approximately 38 %. The largest free potentials are to be found in the increase of PV-utilization. In case all free potentials will be used,

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RES-E production can be almost three times higher compared to 2011 (plus 174 %) at about 4,149,440 MWh. Without the realization of savings, RES-E production is about to cover the 2011 electricity demand completely (103 % cover by RES-E). If all energy saving potentials will be implemented and all RES-E production potentials will be realized, a surplus production of about 143 %, which is equivalent to about 1,247,159 MWh, can be reached. The latter number is the RES-E transfer potential in the Allgäu (see also Figure 7) based on the current political situation regarding energy balance data without investigating load curves (see chapter 3). However, realistic potentials are supposed to be higher, as additional wind potentials were not considered here due to pending political decisions and as these data do not reflect temporal aspects of over- and underproductions. This is investigated in chapter 3 of the report.

Figure 7: Technical potentials, utilization and surplus for transfer of RES-E in the Allgäu (2011)

2.2 Heat In the frame of a potential analysis the possibilities of energy savings and the potential for RES-H production were estimated for the Allgäu. Thereby only potentials to be realized within the concept region were regarded. In 2011 energy production by RES-H was at about 2,270,537 MWh (compared to 11,489,262 MWh heat demand), which corresponds to a RE-share of approximately 20 %. The largest free potentials are to be found in the increase of geothermal energy use by heat pumps, whereas the potentials of wood combustion from local resources are almost exploited. In case all free potentials will be used, RES-H production can be increased by approximately two-thirds compared to 2011 (plus 66 %) at about 3,766,054 MWh. Without the realization of savings, RES- H production is about to cover heat demands by one third (33 % cover by RES-H). If all energy saving potentials will be implemented and all RES-H production potentials will be realized

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approximately a little more than half of the heat demand can be covered (53 %), thus leaving an undersupply of 47 %, which is equivalent to a lack of 3,305,154 MWh from local heat resources. Consequently the Allgäu has no RES-H transfer potential from local resources (see also ) and will thus be dependent on fuel imports.

Figure 8: Technical potentials, utilization and surplus for transfer of RES-H in the Allgäu (2011)

3. Daily peaks of electricity production in relation to demands

The constant balance of production and consumption of energy plays an important role for the grid regulation and stability of the power grid itself as it is not able to store energy. However, a power failure in the local low voltage grid has no impact on the frequency. But in the grid system in total, the frequency plays an important role as a control parameter. Any imbalance between production and consumption creates a frequency deviation that has to be balanced out by (conventional) power plants. The European grid system UCTE keeps 3 GW of control energy available – enough to substitute the failure of two nuclear power plants. The power load of the installed PV-systems actually is more than 4 GW. The EIPA-scenario (EIPA= European Photovoltaic Industry Association) estimates a power load of 40 GW in the year 2020. The simultaneous shutdown of this power load, e.g. through a defect in the high-voltage grid, can not be balanced out with the actual installed control reserve. [Source: SMA] In the Allgäu Netz service area, the maximum annual load in 2011 was 238 MW. The capacity of the already installed PV-systems was 109 MW in 2011 (in April 2014 the installed capacity already increased to 157 MW). Since the introduction of the Renewable Energy Act (EEG) in Germany in 2000, the installed capacity of renewable energy in the AllgäuNetz area has

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increased constantly (almost exponentially) as shown in Figure 9. The development is primarily driven by PV installations. Particularly in recent years, the installed capacity of 20 MW of PV in 2006 to almost 157 MW in April 2014 has nearly eightfold.

Figure 9: Development of installed RES-E in the service area of AllgäuNetz GmbH & Co. KG (April 30 2014) [source: AllgäuNetz GmbH & Co. KG]

The impact of this development is illustrated in Figure 10. Here the back feeding events from the AllgäuNetz low voltage grid into the European grid in the years 2009 to 2013 are shown. The first event was registered in 2009. At that time, it was a public holiday in early summertime with sunny weather conditions and low consumption in the industrial sector. Over a period of several hours more energy was produced than consumed at the same time. The excess energy was fed into the feeder system. Such back feeding events are to be observed increasingly. In 2010 three events were recorded; 2011 21 events occurred; in the meantime this phenomenon is part of the "normal" everyday life and it was recorded more than 50 times in 2012.

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Figure 10: Number of back feeding events from the AllgäuNetz low voltage grid into the European grid in the years 2009 - 2013 [source: AllgäuNetz GmbH & Co. KG]

Consequently, the need of electricity storage and export to surrounding regions becomes more and more important in order to guarantee grid stability and an efficient use of RES-E. Thereby it is essential to know the quantity and predicted time of RES-E overproduction for the region. Regarding daily RES-E production functions, particularly PV generates large peaks during noon time on sunny days, whereas biomass and wind power plants are capable to produce base loads with a relatively constant production flow. In regions with a high PV-share peaks can exceed energy demands temporarily. Therefore, in the following load profiles showing RES-E production and temporary demands of the Allgäu are compared. Thereby four scenarios of RE installation status are regarded during summer and wintertime. As results calculated transfer potentials are identified.

Calculation methods: The share of RES-E production in comparison to the simultaneous electricity demand is calculated over 8760 hours per year. Data on electricity demand were gained from grid load profiles of the AllgäuNetz. Data on hydro, biomass and wind power generation were gained from feed-in profiles from the AllgäuNetz. Data on PV-production were gained via measuring values of the global radiation for the city of Kempten (Allgäu). Four scenarios are investigated for identification of real-time transfer potentials 1. Scenario 0: Grid situation in 2011 with a total RES-E share of 38 % 2. Scenario 1: Rise of RES-E share to 70 % by increase of PV only (3 times the capacity in 2011) 3. Scenario 2: Rise of RES-E share to 70 % by increase of PV (2.5 times the capacity in 2011) and wind power (plus 75 wind power plants)

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4. Scenario 3: Rise of RES-E share to 150 % by increase of all potentials including energy savings of 25 %

3.1 Scenario 0: Grid situation in 2011 Scenario 0 reflects the situation in 2011 and shall give an impression on the current status. Figure 11 shows the daily load profile of consumption and RES-E production in 2011. The graphs always reflect the situation on the 15th day of a month. Here, typical trends of the load profile can be observed. For instance, May 15 was a Sunday with a low consumption and a high feed-in from PV-systems, whereas December 15 was a Thursday, a foggy and windless working day with high consumption values. The base load provided by hydropower and biogas plants is obvious with a steady and constant energy production flow. Variations in the production of hydropower plants is correlating with precipitation and snowmelts in spring time. This base load is still variable but not very volatile. Large peak loads are generated by PV installations. In the summertime RES-E production can be higher than the consumption for about 214 hours per year (2 % of a total year) and creates a little surplus of electric energy in the Allgäu of 15,743 MWh (see also Figure 14).

Figure 11: Load profiles for electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu in 2011 on the 15th day of each month [source eza!]

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Figure 12 shows the load profile of a typical week in January 2011. Here, the production line never exceeds the consumption line, thus the Allgäu is completely dependent on electricity imports. However, the regional energy production is already able to provide a base load with a RES-E share of about 37 %, even in wintertime. Physically, the produced RES-E can be directly used. Financially, the produced electricity is declared as “EEG-Strom” and reimported / purchased at the EEX-Strombörse.

Figure 12: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in January 2011 [source eza!]

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Figure 13 shows the load profile of a typical week in July 2011. Here, it is obvious that for three days of the week minor electricity exports are possible because the production from RES-E is higher than the consumption and a small surplus is produced. In a typical week in July during six hours of the week (4 % of total time) the regional RES-E production is higher than the consumption, leading to an energy transfer potential of 0.4 % of the total energy consumption. The total RES-E share during this week is at about 42 %, which is directly and regionally used.

Figure 13: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in July 2011 [source eza!]

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Figure 14 shows the total amounts of RES-E production for 2011 on the left side. The energy consumption (grey) is given on the right side. The middle bar shows the regional consumption (light grey), electricity imports (blue) and a small surplus / export (orange) on a yearly basis. With a RES-E share of 38%, the Allgäu is still importing a large quantity of electricity: 2,536,113 MWh are necessary to cover the consumption. The smaller share of RES-E produced in the Allgäu can be consumed regionally. The fluctuating production – a higher production than direct consumption in 214 hours of the year result in a little surplus of electricity – 15,743 MWh.

The surplus of energy on one hand and the import of energy on the other hand causes “traffic” and loss-of-mains in the grid that can be avoided. The total amount of energy to be transported is higher than the consumption. With a growing share of renewable energies, this issue is intensified. In the following chapters three future scenarios on rising RE shares are investigated.

Figure 14: Amounts of electricity production, transfer potential (export), import, regional consumption and total consumption in the Allgäu in 2011 [source: eza!]

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3.2 Scenario 1: Rise of RES-E share to 70 % by increase of PV Scenario 1 gives an impression on the RES-E load profile course in case the existing RES-E share of 38 % rises up to 70 % by an increase of PV only. Thereby a rise of the installed PV capacity of plus 200 % is assumed (three times of the 2011 capacity). Figure 15 shows the daily load profile of consumption and RES-E production for this scenario. The graphs always reflect the situation on the 15th day of a month. Here, typical trends of the load profile can be observed. In comparison to the situation in 2011 the RES-E load curve exceeds the electricity consumption at noon time for nine out of twelve months of the year due to high peaks of PV production. Even in the wintertime surplus situations can occur in case of sunny weather conditions. Consequently, a much greater amount of electricity could be transferred to neighbouring regions during noon times. RES-E production can be higher than the consumption for about 1855 hours per year (21 % of a total year) and creates a surplus of electric energy in the Allgäu of 747,654 MWh (see also Figure 18).

Figure 15: Load profiles for electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu with additional PV installations up to a RES-E share of 70 % on the 15th day of each month [source eza!]

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Figure 16 shows the load profile of a typical week in January for scenario 1. Here, the production line exceeds the consumption line at noon time during four out of seven days, resulting in a small electricity overproduction even in wintertime. In a typical week in January during ten hours of the week (6 % of total time) the regional RES-E production is higher than the consumption, leading to an energy transfer potential of 1.3 % of the total energy consumption. The total RES-E share during this week is at about 46 %, which is directly and regionally used.

Figure 16: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in January with additional PV installations up to a RES-E share of 70 % [source eza!]

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Figure 17 shows the load profile of a typical week in July for scenario 1. Here, it is obvious that for all days of the week minor or major electricity exports are possible because the production from RES-E is higher than the consumption. In a typical week in July during 38 hours of the week (23 % of total time) the regional RES-E production is higher than the consumption, leading to an energy transfer potential of 26 % of the total energy consumption. The total RES-E share during this week is at about 58 %, which is directly and regionally used.

Figure 17: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in July with additional PV installations up to a RES-E share of 70 % [source eza!]

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Figure 18 shows the total amounts of RES-E production for scenario 1 on the left side. The energy consumption (grey) is given on the right side. The middle bar shows the regional consumption (light grey), electricity imports (blue) and a surplus / export (orange) on a yearly basis. With a RES-E share of 70% mainly provided by PV installations, the Allgäu is still importing a large quantity of electricity: 1,953,141 MWh are necessary to cover the consumption. A slightly higher amount is produced in the Allgäu and can be consumed regionally (2,065,150 MWh). The fluctuating production – a higher production than direct consumption in 1855 hours of the year results in a surplus of electricity – 747,654 MWh.

Figure 18: Amounts of electricity production, transfer potential (export), import, regional consumption and total consumption in the Allgäu with additional PV installations up to a RES-E share of 70 % in the Allgäu [source: eza!]

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3.3 Scenario 2: Rise of RES-E share to 70 % by increase of PV and wind power Scenario 2 gives an impression on the RES-E load profile course in case the existing RES-E share of 38 % rises up to 70 % by an increase of PV and wind power. Thereby a rise of the installed PV capacity of plus 150 % (2.5 times of the 2011 capacity) and an additional installation of 75 wind power plants (3.0 MW with an average harvest of 6000 MWh per year) is assumed. Figure 19 shows the daily load profile of consumption and RES-E production for this scenario. The graphs always reflect the situation on the 15th day of a month. In comparison to scenario 1 (higher PV share) the peaks caused by PV at noon are reduced, leading to a higher base load with more regional consumption and less surplus production. Also here surplus situations can occur in the wintertime in case of sunny weather conditions, but more electricity can be used locally. Consequently, the amount of electricity that needs to be imported and the transfer potential is lower than in scenario 1. RES-E production can be higher than the consumption for about 1820 hours per year (21% of a total year) and creates a surplus of electric energy in the Allgäu of 488,876 MWh (see also Figure 18).

Figure 19: Load profiles for electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu with additional PV installations and wind power plants up to a RES-E share of 70 % on the 15th day of each month [source eza!]

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Figure 20 shows the load profile of a typical week in January for scenario 2. Here, the production line exceeds the consumption line at noon time during three out of seven days, resulting in a small electricity overproduction even in wintertime. In a typical week in January during six hours of the week (4 % of total time) the regional RES-E production is higher than the consumption, leading to an energy transfer potential of 0.7 % of the total energy consumption. The total RES-E share during this week is at about 48 %, which is directly and regionally used. Compared to scenario 1 less overproduction is generated (0.7 % to 1.3 %) however, the total RES-E share in scenario 2 is even slightly higher (48 % to 46 %).

Figure 20: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in January with additional PV installations and wind power plants up to a RES-E share of 70 % [source eza!]

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Figure 21 shows the load profile of a typical week in July for scenario 2. Here, it is obvious that for five out of seven days of the week more or less electricity exports are possible because the production from RES-E is higher than the consumption. In a typical week in July during 33 hours of the week (20 % of total time) the regional RES-E production is higher than the consumption, leading to an energy transfer potential of 16 % of the total energy consumption. The total RES-E share during this week is at about 57 %, which is directly and regionally used. Compared to scenario 1 less overproduction is generated (16 % to 26 %) but the total RES-E share is approximately the same (57 % to 58 %)

Figure 21: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in July with additional PV installations and wind power plants up to a RES-E share of 70 % [source eza!]

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Figure 22 shows the total amounts of RES-E production for scenario 2 on the left side. The energy consumption (grey) is given on the right side. The middle bar shows the regional consumption (light grey), electricity imports (blue) and a surplus / export (orange) on a yearly basis. With a RES-E share of 70% mainly provided by PV installations and additional 75 wind power plants , the Allgäu needs to import a smaller quantity of electricity compared to scenario 1: 1,694,363 MWh are necessary to cover the consumption (minus 13 % compared to scenario 1). Consequently, a higher amount is produced in the Allgäu and can be consumed regionally (2,323,928 MWh, plus 13 % compared to scenario 1). The fluctuating production – a higher production than direct consumption in 1820 hours of the year results in a lower surplus of electricity than in scenario 1 – 488,876 MWh (minus 35 %).

Figure 22: Amounts of electricity production, transfer potential (export), import, regional consumption and total consumption with additional PV installations and wind power plants up to a RES-E share of 70 % in the Allgäu [source: eza!]

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3.4 Scenario 3: Rise of RES-E share to 150 % by increase of all potentials including energy savings Scenario 3 gives an impression on the RES-E load profile course in case the existing RES-E share of 38 % rises up to 150 % by an increase of all RES with potentials including the realization of 25 % energy savings. Thereby a rise of the installed PV capacity of plus 5 times compared to the 2011 capacity, an additional installation of 75 wind power plants (3.0 MW with an average harvest of 6000 MWh per year), an increase of hydro power of 10 % and of biomass of 50 % is assumed. Simultaneously a reduction in electricity consumption of 25 % is supposed to be realized. Figure 23 shows the daily load profile of consumption and RES-E production for this scenario. The graphs always reflect the situation on the 15th day of a month. In comparison to scenario 2 the peaks caused by PV at noon increased largely leading to a great surplus production and to a lot higher regional consumption. Surplus situations also occur in wintertime (in this example except February) in case of sunny weather conditions. Much more electricity can be used locally. Consequently, the amount of electricity that needs to be imported is a lot lower and the transfer potential is a much higher than in all other scenarios. RES-E production can be much higher than the consumption for about 3777 hours per year (43 % of a total year) and creates a surplus of electric energy in the Allgäu of 2,199,923 MWh (see also Figure 26).

Figure 23: Load profiles for electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu with additional installations for all RES-E types up to a RES-E share of 150 % including 25 % energy savings on the 15th day of each month [source eza!]

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Figure 24 shows the load profile of a typical week in January for scenario 3. Here, the production line exceeds the consumption line at noon time during all days of the week. In a typical week in January during 44 hours of the week (26 % of total time) the regional RES-E production is higher than the consumption, leading to an energy transfer potential of 18 % of the total energy consumption. The total RES-E share during this week is at about 74 %, which is directly and regionally used. Compared to scenario 2 a much greater overproduction is generated (18 % to 1.3 %). Consequently, the total RES-E share in scenario 3 is also a lot higher (74 % to 48 %).

Figure 24: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in January with additional installations for all RES-E types up to a RES-E share of 150 % [source eza!]

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Figure 25 shows the load profile of a typical week in July for scenario 3. Here, it is obvious that during all days of the week great amounts of energy can be exported because the production from RES-E is a lot higher than the consumption. In a typical week in July during 66 hours of the week (39 % of total time) the regional RES-E production is higher than the consumption, leading to an energy transfer potential of 88 % of the total energy consumption. The total RES-E share during this week is at about 78 %, which is directly and regionally used. Compared to scenario 2 a much greater overproduction is generated (88 % to 16 %). Consequently, the total RES-E share in scenario 3 is also a lot higher (78 % to 57 %).

Figure 25: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in July with additional installations for all RES-E types up to a RES-E share of 150 % [source eza!]

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Figure 26 shows the total amounts of RES-E production for scenario 3 on the left side. The energy consumption (grey) is given on the right side. The middle bar shows the regional consumption (light grey), electricity imports (blue) and a surplus / export (orange) on a yearly basis. With a RES-E share of 150% (mainly provided by PV installations) and an energy consumption reduction of 25 %, the Allgäu needs to import only a small quantity of electricity compared to the other scenarios: 693,063 MWh are necessary to cover the consumption (minus 59 % compared to scenario 2). However, the absolute amount of regional energy consumption remains on a similar level (2,320,655 MWh, minus 0.14 % compared to scenario 2). The fluctuating production – a higher production than direct consumption in 3777 hours of the year result in a great amount of surplus electricity – 2,199,923 MWh (plus 350 % compared to scenario 2).

Figure 26: Amounts of electricity production, transfer potential (export), import, regional consumption and total consumption with additional installations for all RES-E types up to a RES-E share of 150 % in the Allgäu [source: eza!]

4. RE demand in bordering regions

In the south, the Allgäu is directly bordered by the Austrian states of Tyrol and Vorarlberg, in the east by the region of Upper Bavaria, in the west by the region of Upper Swabia (Baden- Wuerttemberg) and in the north by Northern Swabia (Bavaria). All these regions are characterized by rural structures with two larger cities above 100,000 inhabitants within a distance of 100 km, both north of the Allgäu: Augsburg (~275,000 inhabitants) and Ulm (~120,000 inhabitants). A detailed analysis of the RE demand of the bordering regions would require comprehensive investigations and data mining activities which are not part of the project. Thus, in the following

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a brief qualitative estimation of the situation is given, restricted to electricity transfer as there is no potential for heat transfer from local resources in the Allgäu (see chapter 2.2). Due to the fact, that in the Allgäu electricity, gas and transport networks to all bordering regions are very well developed, energy transfer barriers due to a lack of grids and networks can be neglected. All direct bordering regions have, similar to the Allgäu, mainly rural structures with a lower population density and a lower energy consumption density than in urban areas and hence large technical potentials for own RE productions. In the south, the Austrian states of Tyrol and Vorarlberg are montainous regions, thus having large potentials for pumped storage hydro power stations. Surplus electricity from the Allgäu could be used for pumping water to the upper basins of such power stations for storage. In case of a lack of RES-E production the water could be released to the lower basins generating electricity. None of the bordering western, eastern and northern regions produce a surplus of RES-E currently (except PV-peaks at noon times of sunny days). It is estimated that these areas have lower RES-E shares than the Allgäu (below 38 %). Consequently, in case of a greater increase in RES-E production in the Allgäu with stagnating or slow growing developments and in the neighbouring regions having a RES-E share below 50 %, these areas could use the surplus energy from the Allgäu. Of course, in case of large transfer amounts the existing electricity grids need to be enlarged and expanded. The cities of Munich (1.4 Million inhabitants) and Stuttgart (600,000 inhabitants) with large industrial production plants of globally acting companies like BMW, Daimler, Siemens, Porsche, MAN and many more are situated within a distance of 150 to 180 kilometers. Both are European Metropolitan Regions with 6.0 and 5.3 Million inhabitants. These high energy density regions will not be able to produce their own energy demands in the near future. Thus, they will be largely dependent on great energy imports from the surrounding rural areas as the Allgäu. Also here, in case of large transfer amounts the existing electricity grids need to be enlarged and expanded. Additionally storage technologies for short (e.g. batteries), medium (e.g. pumped hydro storage) and long term storage (e.g. power to gas) need to be developed and implemented. Furthermore, the energy vision of the future is that rural areas not only provide foodstuff for urban areas but also the required great amounts of renewable energies as large cities do not have the required surface areas.

5. Present RE transfer possibilities

In summary, it can be stated that the Allgäu has no potentials for heat transfer as local resources are not even sufficient to cover its own demand. Regarding electricity transfer possibilities great potentials exist. Depending on the further development of RES-E production and of energy saving activities, the Allgäu could transfer electricity amounts of 15,743 MWh (current situation) to 2,199,923 MWh (scenario 3) to bordering regions. Here, particularly the European Metropolitan Regions of Munich and Stuttgart could be provided with electricity. However, in order to realize larger electricity transfer amounts to neighbouring regions, electricity grids – at least partially – need to be expanded and enlarged (high voltage) and storage technologies need to be installed.

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The AllgäuNetz GmbH collected relevant experiences in this field. Thus, in Kempten a consulting center was founded in order to assist grid operators in efficient grid extensions (http://www. egrid.de). The southern mountainous bordering regions of Tyrol and Vorarlberg could provide electricity storage capacities by pumped hydro power stations. Realistically, for the implementation of new pumped storage hydro power stations many legal barriers need to be taken, in Austria as well as in Germany.

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