3sCE417P3 Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts ENERGY TRANSFER POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT Allgäu Output 3.3.2 publicity May 2014 public internet Thorsten Böhm, print Florian Botzenhart X non public This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF The sole responsibility for the content of this [webpage, publication etc.] lies with the authors. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Communities. The European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. Contents 1. Energy networks in the Allgäu ................................................................................................. 5 1.1 Overview of the region ..................................................................................................... 5 1.2 Electricity network ............................................................................................................ 6 1.3 Gas network ...................................................................................................................... 7 1.4 Road network for raw materials ....................................................................................... 9 2. Available regional surplus production of RE .......................................................................... 11 2.1 Electricity ........................................................................................................................ 11 2.2 Heat ................................................................................................................................ 12 3. Daily peaks of electricity production in relation to demands ............................................... 13 3.1 Scenario 0: Grid situation in 2011 .................................................................................. 16 3.2 Scenario 1: Rise of RES-E share to 70 % by increase of PV ............................................. 20 3.3 Scenario 2: Rise of RES-E share to 70 % by increase of PV and wind power ................. 24 3.4 Scenario 3: Rise of RES-E share to 150 % by increase of all potentials including energy savings ................................................................................................................. 28 4. RE demand in bordering regions ........................................................................................... 31 5. Present RE transfer possibilities ............................................................................................ 32 3sCE417P3 Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 2 of 33 List of Figures Figure 1: Map of the model region Allgäu (Source: Allgäu GmbH) ................................................. 5 Figure 2: Allgäu electricity circuit (220 kV + 380 kV) in 2012 .......................................................... 6 Figure 3: Gas grid of the Erdgas Schwaben GmbH (Source: Erdgas Schwaben) ............................. 8 Figure 4: Natural gas supply area of the Allgäu in 2009 (Source: Lutum + Tappert) ...................... 9 Figure 5: Road system of the Allgäu (source: https://maps.google.de) ....................................... 10 Figure 6: Network map of the regional railway traffic (Source: Bayerische Eisenbahngesellschaft mbH 2013) ................................................................................ 11 Figure 7: Technical potentials, utilization and surplus for transfer of RES-E in the Allgäu (2011) ............................................................................................................................ 12 Figure 8: Technical potentials, utilization and surplus for transfer of RES-H in the Allgäu (2011) ............................................................................................................................ 13 Figure 9: Development of installed RES-E in the service area of AllgäuNetz GmbH & Co. KG (April 30 2014) [source: AllgäuNetz GmbH & Co. KG] ............................................. 14 Figure 10: Number of back feeding events from the AllgäuNetz low voltage grid into the European grid in the years 2009 - 2013 [source: AllgäuNetz GmbH & Co. KG] ............ 15 Figure 11: Load profiles for electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu in 2011 on the 15th day of each month [source eza!] ....................................................... 16 Figure 12: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in January 2011 [source eza!] .................................................................. 17 Figure 13: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in July 2011 [source eza!] ......................................................................... 18 Figure 14: Amounts of electricity production, transfer potential (export), import, regional consumption and total consumption in the Allgäu in 2011 [source: eza!] ............................................................................................................................... 19 Figure 15: Load profiles for electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu with additional PV installations up to a RES-E share of 70 % on the 15th day of each month [source eza!] ............................................................................................. 20 Figure 16: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in January with additional PV installations up to a RES-E share of 70 % [source eza!] ......................................................................................................... 21 Figure 17: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in January with additional PV installations up to a RES-E share of 70 % [source eza!] ......................................................................................................... 22 3sCE417P3 Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 3 of 33 Figure 18: Amounts of electricity production, transfer potential (export), import, regional consumption and total consumption in the Allgäu with additional PV installations up to a RES-E share of 70 % in the Allgäu [source: eza!] .......................... 23 Figure 19: Load profiles for electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu with additional PV installations and wind power plants up to a RES-E share of 70 % on the 15th day of each month [source eza!] ....................................................... 24 Figure 20: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in January with additional PV installations and wind power plants up to a RES-E share of 70 % [source eza!] ..................................................................... 25 Figure 21: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in January with additional PV installations and wind power plants up to a RES-E share of 70 % [source eza!] ..................................................................... 26 Figure 22: Amounts of electricity production, transfer potential (export), import, regional consumption and total consumption with additional PV installations and wind power plants up to a RES-E share of 70 % in the Allgäu [source: eza!] ........ 27 Figure 23: Load profiles for electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu with additional installations for all RES-E types up to a RES-E share of 150 % including 25 % energy savings on the 15th day of each month [source eza!] ............... 28 Figure 24: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in January with additional installations for all RES-E types up to a RES-E share of 150 % [source eza!] ............................................................................... 29 Figure 25: Simulation of electricity consumption and RES-E production in the Allgäu for a typical week in January with additional installations for all RES-E types up to a RES-E share of 150 % [source eza!] ............................................................................... 30 Figure 26: Amounts of electricity production, transfer potential (export), import, regional consumption and total consumption with additional installations for all RES-E types up to a RES-E share of 150 % in the Allgäu [source: eza!] .................... 31 3sCE417P3 Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 4 of 33 1. Energy networks in the Allgäu 1.1 Overview of the region The Allgäu region is part of the superior administration unit "Swabia" which belongs to the German state of Bavaria (see Figure 1). It is the southernmost touristic region of Germany and has about 3 million arrivals with 17 million overnight stays per year. The Allgäu is well known for dairy farming. Besides tourism and agriculture, the mechanical industry, automotive support and packaging industry are essential industry branches. The actual number of residents is at about 650,000. The whole area size of the model region (in terms of NUTS) is 4600 square kilometers. The Allgäu has a good economic infrastructure and in 2012 the unemployment rate was at 3.5 %. The region’s gross domestic product was about 18,294 Mio. Euro in 2009 (Bayerisches Landesamt für Statistik 2013). Figure 1: Map of the model region Allgäu (Source: Allgäu GmbH) 3sCE417P3 Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 5 of 33 1.2 Electricity network The model region Allgäu has an excellent