International Journal of Research and Review DOI: https://doi.org/10.52403/ijrr.20210427 Vol.8; Issue: 4; April 2021 Website: www.ijrrjournal.com Research Paper E-ISSN: 2349-9788; P-ISSN: 2454-2237

Analysis of the Influence of Infrastructure on Economic Growth in North Province

Syamsidar Sinaga1, Irsad2, Rahmanta3

1Postgraduate Students, Faculty of Economics and Business, Department of Economics, Universitas Sumatera Utara, 2,3Postgraduate Lecturer, Faculty of Economics and Business, Department of Economics, Universitas Sumatera Utara, Indonesia

Corresponding Author: Syamsidar Sinaga

ABSTRACT real output per person. While the country- poor country with a dense population and a The objective of the research was to analyze the lot of life at the level of the limit of life influence of road infrastructure, health experiences the difficulty of raising it. infrastructure, and government spending in Causes of low income in developing infrastructure on economic growth in North countries is the entry into force of the law of Sumatra Province. In the model equation, economic growth is dependent variable while the addition result of the diminishing due to road infrastructure, health infrastructure and increasing population very quickly, while government spending in infrastructure are there is no power to encourage the growth independent variable. The scope of this research of the economy in the form of increasing the is the district and city in quantity and quality of natural resources, Province, exactly 32 districts/cities from 2015- capital, and technological progress (Naf'an 2019. The analyzing model is the Fixed Effect in Ms Yanti et al, 2019:73). Model, by using E-views 10 software. The result Indonesia is one of the developing of the research showed that road infrastructure, countries where the country of Indonesia health infrastructure, and government spending doing a lot of development to improve the in infrastructure simultaneously had significant welfare of society. The construction is the influence on economic growth. Partially road infrastructure had negative and not significant basis for improving the welfare of the influence on economic growth, health community. One of the indicators to see the infrastructure had positive and significant development is economic growth. The influence on economic growth and government positive economic growth indicates the spending in infrastructure had positive and not presence of increased economic activity, on significant influence on economic growth in the contrary, negative economic growth North Sumatra Province. showed a decline in economic activity (Maqin, 2011:10). Keywords: Road Infrastructure, Health In the science of economic growth Infrastructure, Government Spending in (economic growth) is the process of changes Infrastructure, Economic Growth. in economic conditions of a country

continuously toward a better state for a INTRODUCTION certain period. Economic growth can be The economy is said to grow or defined also as the process of increasing the evolve if there is growth of real output. production capacity of an economy which is Growth occurs when there is a rise in output manifested in the form of increase in per capita. Economic growth illustrates the national income (Hidayah et al, 2018:586). rise in the standard of living measured by

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Source : BPS Sumut – Economic Growth Data for the Years 2015-2019 Chart 1.1 Economic Growth In North Sumatra Province On The Basis Of HargaKonstan Years 2015-2019 (Percent)

Chart 1.1 shows the growth of the the lowest is Coal District of 4,11%. In economy of North Sumatra in years 2015- 2016, the highest economic growth is the 2018 fluctuated and increased from the year City of by 6,27% and the lowest is 2018-2019. The highest economic growth is amounted were the year 2019 of 5.22% and the lowest of 4.12%. In 2017 the highest economic the year 2015 amounted to 5,10%. In the growth is a District Mandaling Christmas by year 2016 economic growth in North 6,09% and the lowest is the Coal District of Sumatra Province increased to 5,18%, but in 4,11%. In 2018, the highest economic 2017 decreased to at 5.12%. In 2018, growth is a Regency of 6.03% economic growth in North Sumatra and the lowest is North Tapanuli Regency to Province increased to 5,18% and in 2019 4.35%. In the year 2019 the highest back increased to 5,22%. economic growth is a Regency Gunungsitoli Based on the district/city, in the year by 6,05% and the lowest is Coal District to of 2015 the highest economic growth is a 4.35%. The disparity in economic growth District Mandaling Christmas by 6,22% and between the districts of the city are still

International Journal of Research and Review (ijrrjournal.com) 197 Vol.8; Issue: 4; April 2021 Syamsidar Sinaga et.al. Analysis of the influence of infrastructure on economic growth in North Sumatra Province. visible. Overall, economic growth in North Sumatra Province is influenced by several Sumatra is still supported 3 districts/cities, factors of infrastructure such as road namely the City of Medan, Mandailing infrastructure, and infrastrukturkesehatan. Natal Regency and Regency Gunungsitoli. The policy of infrastructure development Donations quantity of GDP that should be pursued in order to not only focus fluctuate essentially determined by the on increasing the value of output, but also magnitude of the contribution to the on the evenness of its distribution. In the economy each district/city. The economic report on the year 2019, the World conditions of each district in the scope of Economic Forum (WEF) revealed that the time that can be identified based on the rate level of competitiveness of Indonesia still of growth by comparing the GDP in lags behind that of some countries. This can different years (years 2015-2019). The be seen on the Chart 1.2. development of economic growth in North

Source: World Economic Forum 2019 Chart 1.2 Infrastructure Competitiveness of ASEAN Countries in 2019

Chart 1.2 shows that the ranking of drivers of the economic growth. The rate of the competitiveness of Indonesia's economic growth of a country or region can infrastructure is still lagging behind in the not be separated from the availability of area of Southeast Asia (ASEAN). Score infrastructure such as transportation, energy Indonesia's competitiveness at the level to and sanitation. This is what causes the 67.7 points from a scale of 0-100. These development of infrastructure to be the achievements make Indonesia is ranked 72 foundation of sustainable economic out of 141 countries surveyed and the fifth development. Increasing infrastructure and order in the ASEAN region. While its improvement by the government is Singapore remained in the rank of major as expected to spur economic growth (Suratno a country with infrastructure in Sumadiasa et al, 2016:927). competitiveness of the highest in ASEAN Road infrastructure is required by with the score 95,1. each area. The road is the physical The construction of the infrastructure, serves to connect the region infrastructure is one of the important and with other regions and a variety of center vital part to speed up the process of national activities, social and economic. The and regional development. Infrastructure availability of road infrastructure in the also plays an important role as one of the Province of North Sumatra has an influence

International Journal of Research and Review (ijrrjournal.com) 198 Vol.8; Issue: 4; April 2021 Syamsidar Sinaga et.al. Analysis of the influence of infrastructure on economic growth in North Sumatra Province. on economic growth, such as increasing the of road infrastructure in each district/city amount of output produced, the availability that is the path length of provincial and of employment opportunities, as well as the district roads shows the numbers that is development of the sectors of the economy different. More clear about the development which will ultimately affect economic of road infrastructure in North Sumatra can growth in a region. be seen in Chart 1.3. Based on data obtained from BPS Sumatera Utara 2019 seen from the quantity

Source: BPS Sumut – Data Infrastructure of the Road 2019 Chart 1.3 Road Infrastructure According to the Status of Province and District(Km) in the Province of Sumatera Utara 2019

Chart 1.3 shows the total length of North Sumatra. Contribution of the business the roads of North Sumatra in 2019 is sector in the field of transport of 2019 have 36.561,2 km. Based on the district/city, the increased. Should be with the increasing infrastructure of the longest path is Deli contribution of the business sector in the Serdang Regency ie3.817,58 km and the field of infrastructure to economic growth, lowest is Regency, , namely to 60.1 increase the amount and maintenance of km. The condition of the path length of low road infrastructure. Whereas road is very alarming because it will bring a construction and repair of roads in north negative impact to the whole society such as Sumatra potentially improve the economy increasing the number of people who are of 0.45% per annum above the baseline and isolated and reduce the investment into the extend the absorption of labor by 0.15%. Province of North Sumatra that will Increasing the efficiency of the economy as eventually affect the economic growth of a result of good road infrastructure also

International Journal of Research and Review (ijrrjournal.com) 199 Vol.8; Issue: 4; April 2021 Syamsidar Sinaga et.al. Analysis of the influence of infrastructure on economic growth in North Sumatra Province. encourages an increase in exports of 0.75% growth. Health infrastructure is able to per year. provide a qualified workforce to economic In addition to road infrastructure, growth. Based on data obtained from BPS health is also an important capital for the Sumatera Utara 2019 seen from the quantity conduct of economic activity, where the of health infrastructure in each district/city healthy person it can improve productivity that the number of hospitals, puksesmas and in the work. The existence of a health health centers maid shows numbers that is facility may be an option for people who different. More clear about the development have health complaints for treatment. Health of the health infrastructure in North Sumatra infrastructure has an influence on economic can be seen in Chart 1.4.

Source: BPS Sumut - Data Infrastructure Means Health 2019 Chart 1.4 Health Infrastructure According to the Number of Health Facilities (Units) in the Province of Sumatera Utara 2019

Chart 1.4 shows the number of is Simalungun 214 the unit followed with health facilities of the Province of North Karo and the lowest is the city of Sibolga as Sumatra in the year 2019 2607 unit. Based many as 20 units followed the City of on the district/city health facilities the most Tanjung Balai as much as 21 units.

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The development of the number of capital through government spending in health facilities as much as 22 districts/cities areas such as facilities and infrastructure. have not yet reached the average number of Capital formation in infrastructure and health facilities of North Sumatra. Funds generally be social overhead capitalyang allocation of health budgeted as much as very important in the economic growth. 10% in the Budget of the Regional budget Social overhead capital is very important (APBD) is not sufficient only 2-4 % (RKPD because the parties would not be willing to north Sumatra 2017:15).While the provide the various facilities to the public, contribution of the business sector in the but in the absence of public facilities is then field of health the 2019 rose. The the private sector is not interested to invest availability of a number of means limited (Adeyo et al, 2019:212). Efforts to health will have an impact on the decrease encourage economic growth through the in the degree of health of the Province of improvement and development of North Sumatra. infrastructure with the expenditure of In support of the government's infrastructure budget was directed to infrastructure development policy through melaksanakanprogram priorities such as government spending. Government program management, road, and water spending plays a role in the formation of resources (Nuritasari, 2013:459).

Source: BPKAD Sumatera Utara Chart 1.5 Government Spending Sector Infrastructure in the Province Sumatera Utara 2019 (In Billion Rupiah)

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Chart 1.5 shows the expenditure of have a relationship that is negative and not the government sector infrastructure in significant. North Sumatra Province of 2019 amounted The development of infrastructure in to 6.5 trillion rupiah. Based on the the Province of North Sumatra has lasted district/city, in 2019 the government long enough and with a considerable cost as spending sector infrastructure is the largest well as a significant contribution towards City of Medan, namely 973,4 billion dollars, the improvement of economic growth. while the look of the provision of However there are still many problems infrastructure 2019 long way the largest of faced by the Province of North Sumatra, the year 2019 is Serdang and the number of among others, the management of the funds health facilities is the largest Simalungun. that less evenly the quality of the Then the government spending sector is the infrastructure is still low, the deployment infrastructure of the lowest of the year 2019 infrastructure that is not evenly, care is Sibolga City of 58.5 billion rupiah. Based inadequate infrastructure and so on. on the Theory of Musgrave (Ladung, 2018:21) states the expenditure of the LITERATURE REVIEW government for the public sector is elastic to Economic Growth economic growth. More and more Economic growth is the process of government spending for the public sector, increase in output per capita in the long more public goods that are available to the term. The emphasis on the process, because public. the process contains elements of dynamic Previous researchers who discuss (Boediono in Tarmizi, 2013:19). The about the influence of infrastructure to theoretical science of economic economic growth to obtain the results to development stated that economic growth is vary. In a study conducted by Pranessyet al not just measured by the increase of the (2012:1) explains that the length of the path, Gross Domestic Product and Gross the sale of electric energy, clean water, the Regional Domestic Product, but also given a number of health centers and the number of weight that is immaterial such as enjoyment, schools has positive and significant effect satisfaction and happiness with a sense of on economic growth in the Province of security and peace that is felt by the wider Bengkulu. Another study conducted Maqin community. (2011:10) shows that the electricity infrastructure, labor, and development Infrastructure expenditure has a positive and significant Infrastructure (infrastructure) influence on economic growth. For road according to Oxford Dictionaries (in infrastructure and educational infrastructure Mulyoet al, 2018:1) is the physical structure has a positive relationship but not and the basic organization such as buildings, significant. While the health infrastructure roads, energy supply necessary for the operation of society and institutions.

Figure 1. Conceptual Framework

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Hypothesis needs of the researcher. The Data obtained 1. Road infrastructure has a positive from the official website which is published influence on economic growth in North by the Central bureau of Statistics and the Sumatra Province. department of the Agency of Finance and 2. Health infrastructure has a positive Asset Management Areas. influence on economic growth in North Sumatra Province. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 3. Government spending sector Analysis Of The Effect Of Road infrastructure has a positive influence on Infrastructure On Economic Growth economic growth in North Sumatra Regression results in the value of the Province. variable coefficients of road infrastructure 4. Road infrastructure, health infrastructure by -0,0002 and the probability of 0,1282 and government spending sector because the probability is greater than 0.05 infrastructure simultaneously have then the variable path has a negative effect pengaruhterhadap economic growth in not significant to the variable of economic the Province of North Sumatra. growth. Neither the value of the regression coefficient -0,0002 which means that if the MATERIAL AND METHODS number of path length up to 1 km, then the This research was conducted using economic growth fell of 0.0002 percent. The quantitative approach. Quantitative research results of the estimation of such models can is a method in the research process and be concluded that the road infrastructure in process the data in the form of numbers as a the Province of North Sumatra in the year tool used to analyze and conduct research 2015 to the year 2019 has a negative effect studies (Syriac and Hendrayadi, 2015:109). not significant to economic growth. It is not This study uses statistical data to analyze in accordance with the Theory of Solow the influence between variables are stated that there are different types of examined to get a conclusion that applies in capital, a privately-owned company general. investing in various forms of capital public The Data used in this research is that infrastructure such as roads, bridges and secondary data with the analysis of panel sewerage. It is certainly contrary to previous data. The use of panel data in this study is research which states that the road caused by the limitations of time series data infrastructure can encourage the growth of for each district. Panel Data used is the the economy of a region. combined time series data (time series) of This study together with previous the year of 2015-2019 and the data slice research, namely: Hamzah, the Priest R. and cross (cross section) are taken from the 32 Setiawan, Dedy (2019), the Influence of counties/city di the Province of North Infrastructure On Economic Growth in Sumatra obtained from related institutions, South Sumatra 2014-2017; Febriaty, either in the form of statistical data or other Hastina (2018), the Influence of Road written information. Infrastructure and the Power Deficit On the Data collection method in this Economic growth of North Sumatra. research is a study of the documentation, Research shows that the road infrastructures because in this case the researchers did not have negative effect not significant to directly take itself but researching and economic growth. But the results of this collecting data, namely in the form of study contrast with the results of the financial statements, the documents, research Keusuma, Cut Nanda (2015) who published reports, records, and other examined the about the Construction of information of internet site that are Basic Infrastructure to the Growth of the generated by other parties. These Data will Economy in Indonesia, shows that the road be further processed in accordance with the infrastructure have a positive and significant

International Journal of Research and Review (ijrrjournal.com) 203 Vol.8; Issue: 4; April 2021 Syamsidar Sinaga et.al. Analysis of the influence of infrastructure on economic growth in North Sumatra Province. impact on economic growth in Indonesia. The length of the road is no longer The difference in the results of this study the only major supporter of the smoothness allegedly because of differences in the of the economy. This is due to each district location of research where the object of already has road access, so it does not research conducted by Hamzah and require the addition of a long road again. Setiawan, Febriaty Hastina smaller which The quality of the move which further plays includes the province compared to the an important role to the smooth flow of location of the research Keusuma wider economic inter-region-region economy. For which includes 26 Province in Indonesia. example if the length of the road with good As for the things that make the road road conditions will make the distribution of infrastructure in the Province of Sumatera goods ekonomilebih quickly sent because Utara not have an influence on economic the risk of crash and the slow pace of the growth, namely the condition of road vehicle due to damaged roads will be infrastructure better each regency/city in smaller. On the contrary the length of the North Sumatra Province from year 2015- road with road conditions damaged will 2019 categorized decreased. In 2015 the cause the risk of crash and delay in delivery road conditions are better that 13.612 km, in is high. So at this time, although the growth 2016 the road conditions are better that of the length of the road tend to be slow, but 13.239 km, in the year of 2017 is in good if the quality of the jalansemakin improved condition and that 12.610 km, in the year of the smoothness of economic goods and 2018 is in good condition and decreased services will contribute greatly in favor of back that 12.568 km, but in the year 2019 economic growth that is increasingly high. good road conditions were little changed, namely 12.568 km (BPS). Based on the Analysis Of The Influence Of The district/city, the area experienced a decline Infrastructure Of Health On Economic in good road conditions from year 2015- Growth 2019, namely Kabupaten District Regression results in the value of the , Simalungun coefficient of the variable of health Regency, Nias Selatan, Pakpak Bharat, and infrastructure of 0.002 and the probability of North . Decline in good road 0,0244 because the probability is smaller conditions caused by the increase in the than Alpha 0.05, then the variable health number of motor vehicles passing of the infrastructure has a positive and significant years 2015-2019 such as passenger cars, influence on economic growth. Neither the freight cars, car, bus and motorcycle. In value of the regression coefficient 0.002 2015 the number of motor vehicles as much means that if the addition of infrastructure as 5.824.720 unit, 2016 as much as health increased by 1 unit, then the growth 6.798.265 units, 2017 as much as 7.094.015 of the economic rise of 0.002 percent by the units, 2018 as much as 7.781.587 unit and assumption of ceteris paribus. The results of the year 2019 8.097.163 unit. Furthermore, the estimation of such models can be the repair is made gradually, so that the concluded that the health infrastructure in results are not optimal. In 2015, the the Province of North Sumatra in the year of Department of highways of the Province of 2015 to 2019 have a positive and significant North Sumatra can do the repair of the road influence on economic growth. a few miles, in the year 2016 repair roads The results of this study are in line other. At the time of workmanship of the with research conducted by Pane et al(2020) roads in the next year, the path of the first the Influence of the Construction of the fixed already suffered damage so that the Infrastructure of Health, Education and roads have not been able to support the Population on Economic Growth in North activities of the society. Sumatra, Pranessy et al (2013) Effect of Infrastructure Development On Economic

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Growth in the Province of Bengkulu. The quality of human resources that will results of these studies show that the health improve the productivity of the economy in infrastructure has positive and significant their respective regions. effect on economic growth. Health infrastructure has positive Analysis Of The Influence Of and significant effect on economic growth Government Spending Sector Of due to the increasing health of the Infrastructure On Economic Growth community will have an average live longer Regression results in the value of the thus economically have the opportunity to coefficient of the variable of health earn higher incomes. In the year 2015-2019 infrastructure by 0,000019 and the in life expectancy in the Province of North probability of 0,9540 because the Sumatra each year has increased. In 2015 probability is greater than the Alpha of 0.05 the percentage of life expectancy that is then the variable expenses of the 68,29%, in 2016 the percentage of life government sector infrastructure has a expectancy that is 68,33%, in 2017 the life positive effect not significant to economic expectancy that 68,37%, in 2018 life growth. Neither the value of the regression expectancy that is 68,61% and in 2019 life coefficient 0,000019 which means that if the expectancy that is 68,95% (BPS Sumut). addition of the expenditure of the According to the World Health government infrastructure sector rose by 1 Organization (WHO) services in the health billion dollars, then economic growth rose field can be realized through hospitals and 0,000019 percent with the assumption of community health centers and other health ceteris paribus. The results of the estimation services. The development of health of such models can be concluded that the infrastructure, both in quantity and quality, government spending sector infrastructure will encourage the improvement of the in the Province of North Sumatra in the year quality of human resources. Health is one of 2015 to the year 2019 has a positive effect the requirements for the human resources to not significant to economic growth. perform an activity, especially activities of This is according to the Theory of the economy. To support public health, the Wagner which states that if government government provides health facilities that spending increases, per capita income is hospitals, health centers and health centers relatively increased. Government spending can provide health care to the community in the infrastructure sector has no significant the Province of North Sumatra. Health is a effect on economic growth, this is due to fundamental requirement for every human infrastructure development budget of the being, without public health can not produce Province of North Sumatra focus only on a productivity for the region. some areas only. The realization of The economic activity of a country government spending sector infrastructure would be run if there is a guarantee health remains increased but uneven development care for every population. Expected role of raises the disparities that can slow down the government in providing the adequate economic growth, while the GDP of the health facilities, building health facilities Province of North Sumatra is not only from that reach up to the corner of the village, the several districts/cities only. In the year able to build health centers and pukesmas 2015-2019 in government spending sector maid so that every people can get health infrastructure focus on some of the care that is easily accessible and low cost. district/city, namely the City of Medan, The health facilities are available and and Deli Serdang affordable will determine the success of the Regency while the government spending development of the health sector. Where the sector infrastructure for the City of Sibolga, construction of the health impact on the Distric Pakpak Bharat and the City of condition of human resources so that the

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Padang Sidempuan from year 2015-2019 The road infrastructure in the Province very low (BPS). of Sumatera Utara not have an influence The results of this study in on economic growth because accordance with the research conducted by kondisijalan good each regency/city in Windu's Son (2018) the Impact of North Sumatra Province from year Government Spending On Economic 2015-2019 categorized decreased. Growth and Human Development Index on 2. Health infrastructure has a positive and the Border of Indonesia; Ladung, Dawn significant influence on economic (2018) Analysis of the Effect of growth in North Sumatra Province of Government Spending on Education, Health years 2015-2019. and Infrastructure On Economic Growth in 3. Government spending sector the City of Pare-Pare. The results of the infrastructure has a positive effect not study show that the government spending significant to economic growth in North sector infrastructure have a positive and Sumatra Province of years 2015-2019. significant impact on economic growth. 4. Road infrastructure, health infrastructure Infrastructure is the physical system and government spending sector that are needed to meet basic human needs infrastructure simultaneously significant in the social sphere and the economy. With effect on economic growth in North the maintenance of existing infrastructure in Sumatra Province of years 2015-2019. an area will certainly facilitate trade and the economy, improve the quality of human RECOMMENDATIONS resources through health and will encourage Suggestions of researchers from the the investors to invest. More and more research that has been done is as follows: government spending for maintenance and 1. The North Sumatra Provincial the provision of public goods, the quality of government need to open wide project public goods that are perceived by the management unit to private investment, society, such as the maintenance of road especially investment in the country in infrastructure, health infrastructure and so the field of road infrastructure. Increased on. It can be seen from the fact that the area repair of damaged roads need to be done which has the complete infrastructure to improve the accessibility and system that is better, have a higher rate of productivity of the community. economic growth and the welfare of the 2. Government district in North Sumatra community, which is better anyway, Province need to encourage compared to the area that has the complete development in the field of health infrastructure is limited. With an increase in infrastructure because it can give you a the government spending sector multiplier effect that is significant to the infrastructure is expected to give attention to community of North Sumatra Province. the increase of public investment so that 3. By considering the indicators of the infrastructure needs can be met and can government spending sector increase economic growth infrastructure, the government is expected more and more wise in using CONCLUSIONS AND the budget function infrastructure so that RECOMMENDATIONS infrastructure development is evenly CONCLUSIONS distributed in every region of North Based on the results of the analysis Sumatra. and discussion of the conclusions that can 4. The availability of infrastructure is not be drawn from the study is as follows: yet fully evenly, so the expected to the 1. Road infrastructures have a negative public using the facilities and influence on economic growth in North infrastructure available with the wise. Sumatra Province of years 2015-2019.

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