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Office Market Report. Moscow

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Office Market Report. Moscow The total of commissioned The share of vacant space offices in 2020 amounted to at the end of Q4 2020 reached only 224.4 thousand sq. m 11.7% in Class A offices and 6.1% in Class B offices OFFICE MARKET REPORT. knightfrank.com/research MOSCOW 2020 OFFICE MARKET REPORT. MOSCOW Key conclusions: The total of commissioned Asked rental rates for Q4 2020 offices in 2020 amounted to only amounted to 25,528 rubles / sq. m. / year 224.4 thousand sq. m., which is 41% in Class A and 17,135 rubles / sq. m. / less YoY. year in Class B. Maria Zimina The share of vacant space at the end Director Office Department of Q4 2020 reached 11.7% in Class A Knight Frank offices and 6.1% in Class B offices. «The year 2020 in the Moscow office market Key indicators. Dynamics* was marked by a twofold drop in demand 2020 2019 and supply input. Due to the high level of uncertainty in the market, office users Total stock, ‘000 sq m 16,998 16,773.5 preferred to stay within the framework of current projects, and developers preferred Class А 4,594 4,435 to postpone the commissioning of their Class B 12,404 12,338 buildings until 2021. Despite the impact of restrictive measures on the office segment, New supply, ‘000 sq m 224 381 rental rates and prices have not changed Class А 129.7 160 significantly over the year. In 2021, demand is expected to recover and the volume of Class B 94.7 221 new space is expected to grow». Class А 11.7 9.4 Vacancy rate, % Class B 6.1 7.4 Average weighted asking Class А 25,528 24,991 rental rate*, RUB/sq m/year** Class B 17,135 16,820 OPEX rate range*, Class А 7,100 6,800 RUB/sq m/year Class B 4,800 4,580 * Excluding operational expenses, utility bills and VAT (20%) Source: Knight Frank Research, 2021 Class A and B new supply dynamics Class А C 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F Source: Knight Frank Research, 2021 2 OFFICE MARKET REPORT. MOSCOW Supply Properties scheduled for delivery throughout 2021 At the end of 2020, the total supply of offices in the Moscow market amounted Class А C to 16.99 million sq. m., including 4.59 million sq. m. of Class A and 12.40 million sq. m. of Class B. P Due to market uncertainty in 2020 C A and the tangible impact of restrictive measures due to the coronavirus pandemic, which has left its mark Bols A I P II on the developers’ activity, the total C A commissioned office space amounted C A to 224.4 thousand sq. m. instead of 520 thousand sq. m. projected at the st P end of 2019. The largest facility that 1 C A entered the market in 2020 was a Class C A A object — Neva Towers (60,283 sq. m.). Such large facilities as “VTB Arena Park”, bld. 8, “Alkon II”, MPC “Kvartal West” and others were also officially commissioned. The largest facilities entered the market almost vacant. Therefore, the historically developed T business locations, i.e. Moscow-City and S P ES C A C the north-western part of Moscow in the Leningrad corridor area, faced high- quality free space supply. M T Class А The commissioning of about 450,470 thousand sq. m.is expected in 2021. The dynamics of commissioning and developers’ behaviour will largely depend on the speed of market recovery: given the sharp and significant decrease in absorption in 2020, specialized developers may put some of their projects * Office facilities planning to obtain commissioning certificates in Q1 – Q4 2021. The class of buildings is indicated according to the classification of the Moscow esearchR Forum on hold while observing the behaviour 2013 of office users and the further vector of Source: Knight Frank Research, 2021 market development. Net absorption, new supply and vacancy rate dynamics Net take-up New supply Vacancy rate '000 sq m '000 sq m Class А C 500 500 16.5% 24.4% 15.4% 400 400 20.7% 11.5% 300 17.1% 300 9.3% 12.5% 7.4% 200 11.7% 12.1% 200 9.4% 6.1% 5.8% 100 100 0 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F Source: Knight Frank Research, 2021 3 OFFICE MARKET REPORT. MOSCOW Moscow submarket data. Vacancy rate Class А Class B 15% 10% 5% 3% 11% 5% 12% 2% 2% 6% 12% 32% 7% 3% 6% 5% 26% 32% 8% 9% 1% 8% 9% 7% 6% – – 10% 4% 60% – 7% 3% 5% – 9% 24% 2% Source: Knight Frank Research, 2021 The share of vacant space in Class A The growth of sublease in the office In 2020, the owners of classic offices, increased by 2.4 p.p. over the year, up to market may be called one of the trends in contrast to the owners of flexible 11.7%. Currently, 540 thousand sq. m. of in 2020: due to restrictive measures and spaces, were more protected from large- offices remain vacant. On the contrary, transfer of a certain part of employees to scale abandonment of premises by the the indicator in Class B has decreased by remote working, a significant number of impossibility for the tenants of high- 1.3 p.p. since the beginning of the year, to companies decided to free up part of their quality properties to unilaterally withdraw 6.1%. The total volume of vacant space is space for sublease. The total volume of from contracts, which would potentially almost 760 thousand sq. m. The recorded such space is estimated at the level of 150 – restrain the dramatic growth in the share growth in Class A compared to Q4 2019 200 thousand sq. m., some of which are still of vacant premises. Moreover, despite the was the first annual growth in vacancy for on the market. The companies that made general increase in Class A vacancy since the five years. The indicator dynamics was such a decision include, but not limited the beginning of the year, there is still a due to the entry into the market of new to, Deloitte, which office is now located in shortage of high-quality office space supply large projects in this class: “VTB Arena the “Belaya Ploshchad” business center, in the key business locations of the capital, Park”, bld. 8 (office area of 28,969 sq or KPMG, which also decided to refuse i.e. Moscow-City Moscow International m), as well as the Neva Towers project from some of its offices in the “Bashnya Business Center and the Central Business (60,283 sq m), where the space was na Naberezhnoy” and are subleasing some District. As a solution, tenants can choose vacant. It should be noted that the end of extra space. A similar trend will continue. to sublease the space or transfer part of the year and the commissioning of Neva Nevertheless, highly liquid offices in the their space to a professional operator for Towers played a large part in the indicator city’s iconic properties have been out of management and sale. growth: e.g., the vacancy rate increased by 1.3 p.p. in Q4 compared to Q3 2020. reach of most residents over the past few A large volume of transactions on the Further growth (to 12.1 – 12.3%) is years not only because of the price but also business terms revision as well as complete expected by the end of 2021 due to the because of the lack of large units supply. This or partial refusal of tenants from premises significant share of Class A in the total currently makes it possible for companies was recorded in 2020, with the base scope projected supply in 2021, which may that not only managed to survive during of such deals at the year-end. In Q4 2020, not be filled. On the contrary, the recent the pandemic, but also showed growth, to about 65–70% of the transactions were years’ dynamics continued: the indicator have offices in premium-class facilities. The those to revise and extend business terms, decreased and further decrease is expected limited current demand for such expensive while in this share was only 25–30% (to 5.7-5.8% by the end of 2021) due to space will allow potential tenants to enter in Q1 – Q3. The burst of such activity the small volume of offices announced for the project on relatively favourable terms most likely means the end of negotiations commissioning, as well as the expected since there are now few claimers for such between tenants who decided to reconfigure seasonal, more dynamic, business activity. units. their spaces in the first months of restrictive 4 OFFICE MARKET REPORT. MOSCOW measures due to the pandemic. At the Take-up structure by business sector beginning of 2021, this activity is expected to continue: tenants will continue to look for better options and optimize operating rental costs. F I 30.9% TMT 30.5% Demand 12.7% M 9.% The volume of offices absorption, that is R .0% a key indicator of demand demonstrating R E C 3.8% for a certain period the difference between Government 2.5% all the spaces that have become filled and all those that have entered the market O M E 2.3% empty, significantly decreased in 2020 and T 1.9% amounted to only 262.1 thousand sq.
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