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Home , Ahmed Ouyahia, Darfur, Maghreb, Mediterranean Basin, Sudan (region)

: THE WEAK AND VULNERABLE WALL OF

A report by Javier Martín Added to this are elements of security that make it one of the main centers of instability for the next two MAGHREB: decades: population growth, which is particularly worrying in a country with THE WEAK an excessive degree of political, economic and security uncertainty such as ; the strengthening of AND jihadist movements, particularly in , but also in southern and in Algeria itself, the scene in the VULNERABLE last decade of the last century of an unfinished war between the state and WALL OF radical groups of Wahhabi ideology that left more than 300.000 dead, thousands of people disappeared and EUROPE many accounts pending in a collective memory that is still very much alive; and the proliferation of armed militias and transnational mafias, even connected with similar groups in 1.- Introduction , which engage in all kinds of smuggling, from arms to people and food, but above all fuel, and which have turned the illicit trade The Maghreb , which includes and the parallel economy into a , , Algeria, Tunisia source of wealth and work for millions and Libya, has become one of the of citizens in Tunisia, Morocco, most unstable geopolitical borders of Algeria and Libya. the European Union in the last decade. A vast area inhabited by some In addition to the rampant criminality 95 million people - eighty percent of and the constant threat of terrorism, them in Algeria and Morocco -, there is also political fragility in a enclosed between the Mediterranean region predisposed to the neo- and the desert, and caesarean trend that is sweeping the separating southern Europe from the due to the forced failure of , one of the most conflictive the so-called "Arab springs". In areas on the planet, with which it January 2011, tens of thousands of shares a wide range of structural Tunisians - mostly young - took to the problems: from poverty to corruption, streets crying out "freedom, rights, unemployment, economic and social and social justice". A protest inequalities, the technological deficit, movement that in just two weeks educational and infrastructure ended the exhausted dictatorship of underdevelopment, food insecurity the sick Zinedin el Abedin Ben Ali - and water stress which will be one of abandoned by an important part of his the largest in the world by 2040. regime- and that immediately spread to the rest of the nations of the MENA region for different reasons; In some administration, the government then of them, such as , the result of led by Prime Minister Yousef Chahed, the same disenchantment and the accepted a credit of some $2.8 billion same weakness of the system; In granted by the International Monetary others, such as Libya, driven by a Fund (IMF) and the in foreign agenda. exchange for a series of structural changes and austerity policies. In the Almost a time later, the libertarian terms of reference, both organizations movement only survives in Tunisia, demanded a reduction in the massive the scene of a democratic transition volume of the Tunisian administration, as exemplary as it is weak, supported changes in fiscal policy, opening of by very precarious pillars and full of markets, monetary stability, efficient chiaroscuro. The political reform - fight against corruption and other which concluded with the municipal measures including reductions. elections of 2018 - is considered a Requirements that the Tunisian success. However, none of the three government did not dare to implement demands that articulated the - fearful of social conflict - and which revolution have been accomplished: forced the IMF and the World Bank to the freedoms achieved after the turn off the tap of the promised revolts are in clear decline; the rule of credit. Cornered, Tunisia then turned law has progressed, but is still far to Arab money, lent on apparently from the standards of the most better terms. Saudi Arabia through developed countries in this area. And the ties established with the royal social justice is still a yearning that is family Al Saud by the late President not likely to be fulfilled: obsolete, Beji Caïd Essebsi, and through dependent on foreign and the relations between the monarchy in supported by the European powers, and the Islamist movement the Tunisian economy suffers from the Ennahda, the first political force in same structural problems as in the the country. Even so, at the beginning t i m e s o f t h e d i c t a t o r s h i p of the third decade of the 21st - u n e m p l o y m e n t , c o r r u p t i o n , century, the economy - which remains governmental management errors and in the same parameters as before the lack of horizons-, and is immersed in revolution - is still too fragile a link an acute crisis, similar to the one that that threatens the stability of a triggered the uproar. political transition that has been Late in the first quarter of 2019, the successful. So do -to a lesser extent- concern and threats that had been the social advances, promoted and hanging over Tunisia since a chain of applauded during the revolution, and jihadist attacks in 2015 reaped the today in clear regression lives of 72 people - 60 of them One of the keys to the success of this foreign visitors - and ruined tourism, political transition is the ideological one of the pillars of its fragile and structural transformation carried economy, have become more acute. out by the "Ennahda" Islamist Harassed by creditors and the lack of movement, the main force in a liquidity, which even endangered the country that boasts a high degree of p a y m e n t o f s a l a r i e s t o t h e secularism. Caught in the dilemma that shakes all the groups emanating state, a victim of chaos and civil war from the "Nahda" - the in which two governments - both movement of the 19th century - and without democratic legitimacy - fight its main representative, the Muslim for control of territory and economic Brothers, forced to choose and resources supported by dozens of maintain the balance between the local militias and foreign private trends that pull towards radical military security companies (PSMCs) Salafism and those that opt for that profit from the first privatized war pragmatism, the movement founded in history. One, supported by the UN in Tunisia by Rachid Ghannouchi and in , and the other under the Abdel Fatah Mouro chose the second tutelage of Marshal Jalifa Hafter, a one. In May 2015, after two years of former CIA-trained opposition exile, violence in which the most backward who from Tobruk dominates nearly forces in the group came close to eighty percent of the territory and the breaking up the transition, it exploitation of most of the oil separated preaching from political resources. Tripoli also has the action and became a conservative political, economic and military party with an Islamist leaning towards support of Qatar and, by extension, of like of the right in Europe. It did not and , the latter being the abandon the Islamist agenda; it main defender of the city-state of simply chose to defend it and impose Misrata, with which it has maintained it from a more modern context, commercial and ethnic ties since the adapted to the new reality that times of the . Hafter, Tunisian society was experiencing. for his part, receives the same support Although he has lost the thrust of the from Egypt, , Saudi Arabia and most radicals, who have shifted to the United Arab Emirates, which other parties, the gamble has brought provide him with weapons and air him positive results. In 2014 it superiority despite the arms embargo b e c a m e t h e s e c o n d f o r c e i n that has weighed on the country since Parliament - which was presided over the rebellion in 2011. It also receives b y M o u r o h i m s e l f - a n d t h e support from , which has given fundamental pillar of the government it political stature, and from led by the secular platform "Nidaa through PSMC as the Wagner Group, Tounis". Three years later, he won the owned by Yeugnei Prighozin, a municipal elections - the first in the Russian oligarch closely linked to country's democracy - and the President Vladimir Putin. The legislative elections in 2019, marshal, who has become the accumulating more power despite country's real strongman, has lifted a losing the presidency of the Republic siege on Tripoli in April 2019 with two and failing to form and lead the new clear objectives: to corner Misrata, his government. fiercest enemy; and to snatch from the UN-supported government its last center of power and resistance: Ten years after the rebellion that control of the National Oil Company overthrew Muammar al-Qadhafi's (NOC). From this division, from the dictatorship, Libya is still a failed anarchy and a war turned into a multinational pulse, diverse militias to the shipwreck of precarious boats and mafias take advantage, which leaving from North . Thousands have turned Libya into the nucleus of more perished in the years following the great hypermarket of the Muammar's fall to Qadhafi. In 2019 a contraband that articulates the north total of 110,669 people managed to of Africa, from the lands of the Sahel reach the of , Italy and to the waters of the Mediterranean; from Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and in the bastion of heterogeneous and Libya on an irregular basis and jihadist groups, as much rooted 1,283 disappeared at sea. Most of historically in the own Sahel as them came from sub-Saharan African arrived from the , that countries, but also from the final have turned the country into one of boarding nations themselves. Tens of their main centers of businesses and thousands more are detained in operations. reception centers along the North African coast and thousands more are The solidity of the monarchy in transit or in the hands of the mafia prevented Mohammed VI of Morocco in the Sahel and Maghreb nations from suffering a similar fate to that of waiting to attempt the suicide jump to Ben Ali or Muammar al-Gaddafi, Europe. An unknown number, although the economic and social estimated in the thousands, have lost situation shared features with that of their lives in the Mediterranean or in Tunisia. In Algeria, it was a series of the deserts of the Sahel without a populist measures, combined with the trace. repression of the regime that bought social peace and numbed the unrest, The absence of border controls, both which broke out again in February on the coast and in the southern 2019. A similar situation was , especially those bordering experienced in Mauritania, where the , , and , Burkina protests were quickly and harshly put Faso, Mauritania and , also down by General Mohamed Ould facilitates the free movement of Abdel Aziz, in power since the jihadists in the region and their triumph of the military uprising in journey to Europe, Egypt and Turkey, 2008. where they pass through to and Iraq. According to the last report of The failure of the "Arab springs", the foundation of studies and especially in Libya, has had two direct intelligence services "The Soufan consequences for Europe. One of the Group", Tunisia is the fourth country most visible is the increase in illegal in the world in number of foreign immigration to the Mediterranean. fighters that has joined the Islamic According to figures from the State in Syria and Iraq, after Russia, International Organization for Saudi Arabia and Jordan. The Migration (IOM), around one million Tunisian Ministry of Interior assures p e o p l e h a v e c r o s s e d t h e that about a thousand of them have Mediterranean and arrived in Europe returned to national territory in the since records began in 2014, and last two years. Many of them have around 20,000 more have officially found refuge in Libya, a nation died in the attempt, the majority due transformed into one of the bastions of world jihadist. Regional groups Maltese businessmen and the St. such as Ansar al-Sharia, the Al Qaeda Helena Ercolano mafia, which brought Organization in the Islamic Maghreb gasoline to Europe. (AQIM) and Jama'a al Nusrat al wal Muslimin, a new platform that In the Sahel, this corsair economy is brings together former groups from also the labour base of the rural areas, the Sahel, are reported to be most of which have become detached operating on its territory. There has from central government control. also been a return of Islamic fighters Especially in the northern provinces of to Algeria, the scene of a sustained Chad, , Niger, Mali and upsurge in radical armed activity. The , and in southern Libya return and active presence of jihadists a n d A l g e r i a , w h e r e m u l t i p l e is also fluid and concerns Morocco hetararchies have been created, a and Mauritania. novel concept that refers to territories managed by warlords, smuggling Another of the most visible and bosses or jihadist leaders, sustained worrying consequences is the in the informal economy, where the consolidation of the informal economy authority of the state has practically linked to smuggling, which in vanished. countries such as Libya, southern Tunisia, has become the core of its economic system. According to research by the think tank Crisis G r o u p , i l l e g a l t r a f f i c k i n g o f immigrants generates about 1.5 billion Euros per year in Libya, that of fuel 2 billion per year. Both, along with arms and militia enlistment, are the main economic activity in most towns and the only job outlet for young Libyans. In 2017, the Council presented a report, led by researcher Ian Ralby and entitled Downstream Oil Thief, in which it stated that "the theft of refined products, such as gasoline and diesel, is a significant threat to the global economy and to the stability of the states and regions in which it is essential", and warned that it is an increasingly sophisticated activity "in which the border between the legal and the illegal is becoming blurred". T h a t s a m e y e a r, t h e C a t a n i a Prosecutor's Office launched an investigation to clarify the links between Libyan fuel smugglers, The protest, permitted by the army in 2. - Evolution a country where until then any street m e e t i n g , h o w e v e r s m a l l , w a s suppressed, definitively exposed the In the short and medium term (2030) struggle for the clans in power and The development of the Maghreb will ended with a bloodless coup d'état be linked to that of the Sahel, a disguised as a popular protest region with which it is increasingly movement. At the end of March of linked economically and in terms of that year, when the president returned s e c u r i t y. A n d i t p o i n t s t o a from his umpteenth trip to Europe for chronification and increase of the medical reasons, the then head of the current challenges. The European army, General Ahmed Gaïd Salah, Union's commitment to militarization joined the demonstrators and asked in the Sahel over and above the for the application of the article of the economic and social development of C o n s t i t u t i o n a l l o w i n g f o r those countries suggests that disqualification. The so-called demographic pressure, regular and "Bouteflika clan" gave in. The interim i r r e g u l a r i m m i g r a t i o n , t h e head of state was transferred to the strengthening of terrorism and president of the Senate, Abdelkader dependence on illegal trade will Bensalah - appointed in 2004 by the continue and expand over the next president himself along with Gaïd decade, especially in the rural and Salah - and the general became the desert areas bordering the North country's strongman. From his new African states. A perfect storm that position, he launched a so-called will undoubtedly have a negative "clean hands" campaign against impact on the exposed populations of corruption that actually turned into a the Maghreb, where the social, w i t c h - h u n t t h a t l e d t o t h e political and economic problems that imprisonment of dozens of high- triggered the Arab springs persist; and ranking officials, politicians, consequently also on the European b u s i n e s s m e n a n d j o u r n a l i s t s Union, which will see its current considered to be members of the threats multiply. The situation in "Bouteflika clan. Among them were Algeria is particularly volatile and his brother Said, who was considered dangerous, and could become a the real power in the shadows, and powder keg with serious repercussions General Mohamad Mediène, alias for the whole of Europe and especially "Tawfik", who for the past 25 years for Spain, a country that depends on was head of Algeria's influential Algerian gas. Controlled by the army, intelligence services (DRS) and one of political legitimacy has been in the air the country's most powerful men. since 22 February 2019 when several Both were sentenced to more than ten thousand people took to the streets to years in prison along with the oppose the announcement by the secretary general of the opposition circle that protected President Workers' Party, Louise Hanoun, on that he would charges of conspiring with a foreign run for a fifth term despite being ill power, an expression which in Algeria and having diminished faculties since always alludes to France. The two he suffered a severe stroke in 2013. former prime ministers of Bouteflika, and oil prices, the only wealth Ahmed Ouyahia and Abdelmalek exploited by a country that is Sellal, were also sentenced to more absolutely dependent on the volatile than ten years in prison. Another market of hydrocarbons and fossil f o r m e r h e a d o f g o v e r n m e n t , energies. The sale of oil and gas Abdelamejid Tebboun, a man of the accounts the 96 percent of the system who led the executive briefly exports of the North African nation, in the of 2017, won the which is tied to an economic system controversial elections held in of socialist tint, in which the state is December 2019 after Bensalah and the first employer and all the basic Gaïd Salah twisted the constitution to products, from flour to gasoline, are suit the claims of the new ruling clan. subsidized. In an attempt to maintain The turnout was the lowest in social peace and prevent a revolt like Algeria's contemporary history and the one that ended the dictatorships Tebboun was elected among the of its eastern neighbors, the Algerian protests of the citizens' movement regime has spent half of its national "Hirak", which was born to end currency reserves, then estimated at Bouteflika's mandate and which more some 178 billion Euros, between than a year later is still on the streets 2015 and 2017, in order to preserve vigorously every Tuesday and this paternalistic system in the Thursday, now to demand the end of mistaken belief that the oil crisis t h e m i l i t a r y r e g i m e t h a t h a s would be temporary. The policy has d o m i n a t e d A l g e r i a s i n c e begun to reverse itself in 2017 with independence from France in 1962. the suspension of part of the On 21 February 2020, the streets subsidies, a decision that has across the country once again erupted unleashed inflation, exacerbated the to announce that the protest would depreciation of the national currency c o n t i n u e d e s p i t e i n c r e a s i n g and spurred social unrest, which has repression. And they demanded the been on the up since 2011. departure of Tebboun and the government, which they consider to Despite the energy reform designed by be part of "the same mafia" that the regime and its commitment to the enriched itself and exhaust the development of alternative energies country under Bouteflika. such as solar energy, the outlook is that Algeria, a country with hardly any Two more weaknesses create doubts industrial fabric, will continue to about the future stability of Algeria, a depend on the oil and hydrocarbon country with more than 40 million market over the next decade, as well citizens, most of them young people as on the help of its two main who are looking for a future and who, partners: China, whose companies like the rest of the inhabitants of the enjoy the largest infrastructure region, look to Europe as a way of contracts in the country, like the escape and progress in the face of the construction of the new airport in scarcity of opportunities. One of them or the new multi-million dollar is economic. Algeria is in a severe deep water port on the outskirts of the economic crisis since 2014, as a , and Russia, which has a result of the abrupt collapse of gas significant arms trade with the country. The lack of investment and beginning of the . In industrialisation will keep the Algerian addition, there were at least two regime at the top of the list of states serious attacks in the north of the with the highest import rate in the country, assumed by a local faction world for the next ten years. With few l i n k e d t o t h e t r a n s n a t i o n a l job opportunities, the informal organization "Islamic State". And even economy - estimated to account for though large-scale terrorist actions 40 percent of GDP - and immigration such as the bloody assault on the In will continue to be the main future Amenas site (2013) have not been options for young people. In 2017, repeated in the southern regions, on the number of Algerians who decided the eastern border, the situation to venture out to sea to reach the remains unstable as a result of the coasts of Sardinia and Spain in an impossibility for the Algerian irregular manner doubled. Less than authorities to monitor the longest 200 kilometers separate the city of border in . As in the Sahel , one of Algeria's economic regions, the Algiers regime controls capitals, from Almeria in Spain. The security in the large urban areas, but deterioration of the economy, affected has a minor and decreasing presence by the impossibility of maintaining the - both military and political and social old system of subsidies and the - in the rural areas, especially the unstoppable consolidation of the border areas, which are gradually market economy in a socialist being occupied by jihadist groups and framework, is leading the country to a mafias engaged in all kinds of deeper social crisis, and violence s m u g g l i n g . S e v e r a l i n c i d e n t s cannot be ruled out. Not even a flood demonstrated the progressive transit of irregular immigrants like the one of radical Islamic fighters on the taking place in Libya. border with Niger and Mali, but also from Tunisia, where there is close Internal and border security are the collaboration with local Tunisian second weakness. Within the last five groups housed since 2011 in the years, international jihadism and mountains of Kasserine. The illegal internal terrorism with radical Islamic trade in arms, people and fuel across r o o t s h a v e g r o w n s l o w l y b u t the borders with Mauritania, Mali, continuously, especially in the north Niger and Libya, the heart of of the country. According to the smuggling in the Sahel, is also magazine "Al Yeish", the propaganda expected to grow and become more organ of the Algerian Ministry of prevalent. In 2016, the now Algerian Defence, in 2017, 91 alleged Prime Minister, Ahmed Ouyahia, jihadists were killed within the admitted that the illegal trade in military units of the fight against gasoline, only across the border with terrorism and around 70 were Morocco, costs Algeria more than 2 arrested, almost all of them in the billion Euros a year. Part of the peripheral provinces of Algiers. Many g a s o l i n e , s u b s i d i z e d b y t h e of them were under the radar of the government of Algiers, enters the army and their record showed that business of contraband across the they had joined radical Islamist b o r d e r w i t h L i b y a , w h e r e i t movements in the 90s and the contributes to financing the activity of betrayed. The Tebu maintain close jihadist groups and mafias dedicated relations with opposition groups in to the trafficking of food and illegal (Sudan), some already immigrants. Algeria's lack of established in Libyan territory, and cooperation, which promotes its own with clans in Chad, where the activity security policy in the region and has of the Nigerians of Boko Haram has disassociated itself from military been permanent for years. The Tebu initiatives, such as the French are involved in the clandestine trade Operation Barhane, and policies - in fuel and food, but also with the such as the G5, which are promoted mafia that smuggles immigrants from by the countries of the Sahel and the Sudan and the , who European Union - add a further factor must cross their territory. Jihadists of insecurity and make it predictable from Niger and , mainly from that Algeria's southern border will Boko Haram, must also cross their continue to be one of the main lands. Their presence is proven in the dangers and points of concern for the south of Libya and in northern cities Maghreb and the European Union in such as and Derna. the coming decade. The political instability in Libya A comparable situation is found in suggests that this situation will southern Libya, an area inhabited by continue and eventually deteriorate nomadic tribes from ancient times over the next decade, making the with blood ties all the way through the problem of illegal immigration to Sahel, Chad and Sudan. To the west Europe chronic and even greater, of the so-called "Savior's Pass" - since control of the beaches in the which leads to Niger -are the Tuareg north of the country - now held by tribes, who have always maintained a mafias allied with Europe, and mainly weak alliance with Al Gaddafi. When Italy - is a fragile patch that does not the dictator fell, some of the Tuareg remove the source of the problem. militias fled to Mali, where they joined Without a firm political solution at the the National Movement for the horizon, the power vacuum that Independence of the Azawad (MNLA). characterizes the border areas Some of them still remain within the between the southern Maghreb and transnational jihadist group Jama'a al the northern Sahel will persist, leaving Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimin while a space free for the development of others have developed their own ways mafias and jihadist groups. In Libya, in the Libyan oasis of Sebha, where Tunisia, Algeria, Chad, Niger and they have given birth to a neo-Gaddafi Mali, the central governments control current. They control the illegal trade the urban areas but not entirely the through the town of Ghat, on the rural ones. The Nigerian army never border with Algeria, and have a feeble goes beyond the city of Dirkou, and relationship with the UN-supported the forces of General Jalifa Hafter, a government in Tripoli. To the east of strongman from the east and part of the El Salvador pass, control of the southern Libya, do not move beyond territory is held by the Tebu tribes, the oasis of Sebha, leaving a large which Al Qaddafi used as mercenaries area of territory uncontrolled. The in the Chad war and which he later same happens between Gao and the Algerian border and the north of e n t a i l t h e r i s k o f a n a b r u p t Burkina Faso, on the route to deterioration of the situation and a Mauritania and Morocco. resurgence of armed conflict. After forty years of exile, the refugee camps Tunisia, for its part, will be inclined to of Tindouf are a powder keg where the remain stable over the next decade, as malaise and the wish of many young long as the democratic process in people to take up arms again is place is respected. The trend is for growing, tired of waiting for a political the Ennahda party to gain power and solution through dialogue which is not influence over the next decade, which being reached. Added to this are the will carry out a pragmatic and silent hard living conditions in the desert Islamisation of Tunisian society, and the economic inequalities, as well particularly through the education and as the recent change in the direction social welfare systems. Tunisian of the Polisario Front. After the death society will become more conservative of President Mohammad Abdul-Aziz, but will remain the most advanced in the accession to power of Brahim the region. The economic fragility will Ghali, a man with a more radical and have to continue to be compensated military profile, adds a war factor. for by the European Union, as it has Mauritania and Algeria would be done until now, so that the small equally affected by a possible military country does not derail. The security conflict. challenges and the parallel economy will remain constant as long as the The heptarchies will also have a instability in Libya continues. An negative impact, surviving despite eventual revolt in Algeria is the Europe's militaristic approach. biggest threat, as in the rest of the Whether through the deployment of region. their own soldiers - such as the failed French-led Operation Barhane'; or the In Morocco, the main factor of US-built drone airbase next to Agadez instability is the health of the King, airport in Niger; or also through the Mohammad VI. An eventual and financing and sale of arms to local premature death of the monarch, in a armies within the framework of context where the Crown Prince is still international cooperation in the fight too young, and where the Islamist against global terrorism. In this parties are increasing, could be a very regard, Europe will be confronted in hard shock for a country that also the coming years to a cyclopean shares social and economic problems security problem in the Sahel, on its with its neighbors, and a large border fearsome and disquieting southern with the Sahel and Algeria, the two border Inspired by the example of biggest destabilizing factors in North groups such as the Danish Home Africa. The ongoing conflict with the Guard, which originated in the is another cause for resistance movement to the German concern, in which Algeria, the main occupation during the Second World supporter of the Saharan people in War, some experts have suggested a the region, is also involved. The choice of transforming militias and obstacles to dialogue progress, placed paramilitary groups into security and mainly by - but also by Algiers - combat units that do not respond to the authority of governments, but to wide strip of sand and dunes that the Will and legitimacy of the people separates the wild green of the represented in Parliament. An from the African savannah. experiment that was successful as much in the , after the For evidence we need only to observe fratricidal conflict, as in the United the map to understand the vast area Kingdom, overcoming Nazi paranoia, of the uneven heptarchy that is but which has proved to be harmful in beginning to develop in the Sahel. In s t a t e s w i t h p r e c a r i o u s p o w e r most rural areas of northern Burkina structures and institutions. The Faso, Mali, Niger and Chad, the proposal presented by the UN in presence of the government and the 2012 to create a "Libyan Territorial national army is no longer even Army" not only meant another symbolic. A vast extension of key shipwreck, but also exacerbated the arenas in the traditional trans-Saharan emerging tribal confrontation and trade routes now dominated by armed contributed to accentuate the turmoil militias of all sorts: mainly radical that defines the country today. Wahhabi-Saudi inspired takfiri groups Empowered and heavily armed, linked to global jihadism. But also without a defined hierarchy, these gangs and tribes dedicated to the supposed "plural security areas" were matute with all kinds of products: quickly transformed into a group of weapons and fuel, above all, but also small autonomous heptarchies where drugs, food and people, in a the presence of the State was hypermarket of smuggling that marginal and its authority vanished; extends thousands of kilometers and particularly in the areas most distant replaces non-existent state economic from the capital and in the border systems. The subsidized petrol refined regions. While Europe reinforces and in northern Libya is sold on the black secures its borders, the artificial market in Tunisia, Algeria, Niger, borders designed by in the Mali, even Mauritania and Senegal. Middle East and Africa are blurring While the fuel consumed by Libyan due to the effects of war, capitalist citizens, which is five times more ambition, foreign interference, expensive, is produced in Algeria or smuggling, migration, demographic Nigeria itself. growth, poverty and the crisis, The weapons and the migrants follow a l l o f w h i c h f a c i l i t a t e t h e similar circuits, turned into one more consolidation of these new entities. tragic and millionaire business. The first one to begin to be blurred Without realistic development plans - was the line that separates Iraq from the aid at source proposed as an Syria, victim of an ethnic, political, alternative by European politicians economic and religious pulse with the clashes with the absence of reliable scent of the Cold War between the partners in countries where the state' four regional powers and their s fragility is compensated and respective international partners: exploited by the militias, - with Turkey, , Saudi Arabia and , demographic predictions that the with Qatar as the investment Sahelian population will be doubled to magnate. The second is blurred in the 600 million by 2040 - nearly 50 per cent of them under the age of 30 - possible that the migratory flows to and an extreme climate crisis that will Europe could change their trend, as turn the region in two decades into everything suggests the negative the driest on the planet, the heptarchy population growth in Europe as well being consolidated on Europe's new as the economic difficulties that are southern border appearing like a time expected in the old will bomb. So far, the EU, led by France reduce the weight of the EU and its in this area, has opted for a sustained member countries. Europe will be security and militarisation policy by faced to look for workforce in the the limited deployment of troops and neighbouring countries, mostly in the in recruiting potential partners among Maghreb, which also will see their the militias, which has already proved development reduced. to be a failure and risky on other occasions. And for the transformation of the North African states into well- paid gendarmes to serve as a parapet and stop the irregular migration that in such circumstances will not cease to grow in the coming years. A flow that they are unable to absorb, will transform the core of their fragile societies, with the subsequent risk of balkanisation and instability not only for these countries, but also for the entire .

Long term (2040)

In the long term, the water stress in the region, which is expected to be one of the largest in the world, is the greatest danger, according to the World Resources Institute. Both water and land will be scarce, and feeding the North African population and providing them with a future will be a challenge, even with the decelerating population growth. Added to this will b e t h e p r o b l e m s p r e v i o u s l y mentioned, such as migration pressure from the Sahel and the insecurity in this area, which, however, will be less affected by the absence of water. In this regard, it is strategies of cohabitation with 3-Influence on authoritarian regimes, which are tolerated only in exchange for r e g i o n a l a n d maintaining security, must be dismantled and the political role that E u r o p e a n non-violent Islamist movements security acquire must be accepted, avoiding labeling them or placing them in another category for spurious political, economic and military interests. Over the next two decades, the Maghreb will continue to be one of Europe's most unstable geopolitical frontiers, The unstable borders between the and in order to reverse this trend, southern Maghreb and the Sahel, the good governance and sustainable strengthening of jihadist groups, the development must be encouraged. To w e a k n e s s o f t h e M a g h r e b promote fully-fledged societies, with governments and the extension of robust institutions, and an active and networks trafficking in people, arms powerful civil society. And strong and and fuel, which have already democratic economic development, e s t a b l i s h e d l i n k s w i t h s i s t e r which reaches all layers of society, organisations in southern Spain, will help to calm the revolutionary airs France and Italy, represent a and graces still blowing in the challenge for regional and European Maghreb, will help to lessen the security, and will continue over the seduction produced by immigration next twenty years. So far, European and radical movements, and will powers have opted for mainly security- reduce the spaces in which the oriented policies to counter this various mafias operate. THE END situation, increasing their military presence in the area and counter- © Javier Martín – February 2020 terrorism operations. However, there are few possibilities for a solution without admitting that poverty, underdevelopment, the exodus from rural areas, immigration to the cities and the rapid and large population growth without access to education and work are the root of the problem, and that this cannot be eradicated only with the thunder of guns.

Europe's security will continue to be compromised in the Maghreb unless it opts for constructive policies in support of legitimate governments, educational development and absolute respect for rights. The old