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Međunarodni Pogledi Na Krizu U Jugoslaviji 1980.- 1987

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Međunarodni Pogledi Na Krizu U Jugoslaviji 1980.- 1987 Međunarodni pogledi na krizu u Jugoslaviji 1980.- 1987. Kasalo, Branko Doctoral thesis / Disertacija 2017 Degree Grantor / Ustanova koja je dodijelila akademski / stručni stupanj: University of Zadar / Sveučilište u Zadru Permanent link / Trajna poveznica: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:162:006240 Rights / Prava: In copyright Download date / Datum preuzimanja: 2021-10-04 Repository / Repozitorij: University of Zadar Institutional Repository of evaluation works SVEUČILIŠTE U ZADRU POSLIJEDIPLOMSKI SVEUČILIŠNI STUDIJ JADRAN - POVEZNICA MEĐU KONTINENTIMA Branko Kasalo MEĐUNARODNI POGLEDI NA KRIZU U JUGOSLAVIJI 1980.-1987. Doktorski rad Zadar, 2017. SVEUČILIŠTE U ZADRU POSLIJEDIPLOMSKI SVEUČILIŠNI STUDIJ JADRAN - POVEZNICA MEĐU KONTINENTIMA Branko Kasalo MEĐUNARODNI POGLEDI NA KRIZU U JUGOSLAVIJI 1980.-1987. Doktorski rad Mentor Prof. dr. sc. Mithad Kozličić Komentor Doc. dr. sc. Zlatko Begonja Zadar, 2017. SVEUČILIŠTE U ZADRU TEMELJNA DOKUMENTACIJSKA KARTICA I. Autor i studij Ime i prezime: Branko Kasalo Naziv studijskog programa: Poslijediplomski sveučilišni studij Jadran - poveznica među kontinentima Mentor: prof. dr. sc. Mithad Kozličić Komentor: doc. dr. sc. Zlatko Begonja Datum obrane: 13. lipnja 2017. Znanstveno područje i polje u kojem je postignut doktorat znanosti: Humanističke znanosti, povijest. II. Doktorski rad Naslov: Međunarodni pogledi na krizu u Jugoslaviji 1980.-1987. UDK oznaka: 94(497.1)"1980/1987" Broj stranica: 248 Broj slika/grafičkih prikaza/tablica: 0/6/5 Broj bilježaka: 516 Broj korištenih bibliografskih jedinica i izvora: 118 Broj priloga: - Jezik rada: hrvatski III. Stručna povjerenstva Stručno povjerenstvo za ocjenu doktorskog rada: 1. Izv. prof. dr. sc. Ante Bralić, predsjednik 2. Dr. sc. Mario Jareb, znanstveni savjetnik, član 3. Doc. dr. sc. Zlatko Begonja, član Stručno povjerenstvo za obranu doktorskog rada: 1. Izv. prof. dr. sc. Ante Bralić, predsjednik 2. Dr. sc. Mario Jareb, znanstveni savjetnik, član 3. Doc. dr. sc. Zlatko Begonja, član UNIVERSITY OF ZADAR BASIC DOCUMENTATION CARD I. Author and study Name and surname: Branko Kasalo Name of the study programme: Postgraduate University Study, Adriatic – Link among Continents Mentor: Professor Mithad Kozličić, Phd Co-mentor: Assistant professor Zlatko Begonja, Phd Date of the defence: 13 June 2017 Scientific area and field in which the PhD is obtained: Humanities, History I. Doctoral dissertation Title: International perspectives of the crisis in Yugoslavia, 1980-1987 UDC mark: 94(497.1)"1980/1987" Number of pages: 248 Number of pictures/graphical representations/tables: 0/6/5 Number of notes: 516 Number of used bibliographic units and sources: 118 Number of appendices: - Language of the doctoral dissertation: Croatian II. Expert committees Expert committee for the evaluation of the doctoral dissertation: 1. Associate Professor Ante Bralić, Phd, chair 2. Scientific Advisor Mario Jareb, Phd, member 3. Assistant Professor Zlatko Begonja, Phd, member Expert committee for the defence of the doctoral dissertation: 1. Associate Professor Ante Bralić, Phd, chair 2. Scientific Advisor Mario Jareb, Phd, member 3. Assistant Professor Zlatko Begonja, Phd, member Izjava o akademskoj čestitosti Ja, Branko Kasalo, ovime izjavljujem da je moj doktorski rad pod naslovom Međunarodni pogledi na krizu u Jugoslaviji 1980.-1987. rezultat mojega vlastitog rada, da se temelji na mojim istraživanjima te da se oslanja na izvore i radove navedene u bilješkama i popisu literature. Ni jedan dio mojega rada nije napisan na nedopušten način, odnosno nije prepisan iz necitiranih radova i ne krši bilo čija autorska prava. Izjavljujem da ni jedan dio ovoga rada nije iskorišten u kojem drugom radu pri bilo kojoj drugoj visokoškolskoj, znanstvenoj, obrazovnoj ili inoj ustanovi. Sadržaj mojega rada u potpunosti odgovara sadržaju obranjenoga i nakon obrane uređenoga rada. Zadar, 19. srpnja 2017. Sadržaj Predgovor ............................................................................................................ III 1. Uvodne napomene ............................................................................................. 1 2. Glavni procesi u unutarnjoj i vanjskoj politici Jugoslavije od 1945. do 1980. godine .................................................................................................................... 7 2.1. Od DFJ do FNRJ ......................................................................................... 7 2.2. Od DFJ do SFRJ ....................................................................................... 16 2.3. SFRJ do smrti Josipa Broza Tita ............................................................... 30 2.4. SFRJ do Ustava 1974. ............................................................................... 32 2.5. Od Ustava 1974. do smrti Josipa Broza .................................................... 45 3. Američke i britanske procjene oko procesa nasljeđivanja Josipa Broza ........ 49 3.1. Analiza CIA-e ........................................................................................... 49 3.2. Britanska analiza Titove sukcesije ............................................................ 65 4. Smrt Josipa Broza ............................................................................................ 68 5. Gospodarska kriza osamdesetih ...................................................................... 77 5.1. Zapadne analize ekonomskih i političkih problema u Jugoslaviji nakon tranzicije vlasti ................................................................................................. 91 6. Nemiri na Kosovu i "Albansko pitanje"........................................................ 109 6.1. Zapad i kriza na Kosovu ......................................................................... 118 7. Političko-obavještajne analize sukoba unutar SKJ ....................................... 140 8. Uloga JNA u političkom životu Jugoslavije ................................................. 161 8.1. Zapadni pogled na ulogu JNA ................................................................ 167 9. Međunacionalni odnosi u Jugoslaviji ............................................................ 183 I 10. Uspon Slobodana Miloševića na političkoj sceni Jugoslavije .................... 212 11. Zaključak ..................................................................................................... 220 12. Izvori i Bibliografija: ................................................................................... 230 13. Sažetak......................................................................................................... 240 14. Abstract ....................................................................................................... 243 15. Popis kratica ................................................................................................ 246 16. Životopis i bibliografija autora .................................................................... 248 II Predgovor Odluka o izboru i formiranju teme ove disertacije Međunarodni pogledi na krizu u Jugoslaviji 1980.-1987. nastala je u sklopu pohađanja poslijediplomskog doktorskog studija Jadran - poveznica među kontinentima na Sveučilištu u Zadru. Primarni razlog za odabir navedene teme bilo je moje zanimanje za suvremenu povijest i pitanja međunarodnih odnosa nakon Drugog svjetskog rata. U sklopu tih interesa pojavila se ideja o mogućem istraživanju zapadnih pogleda na situaciju u Jugoslaviji tokom osamdesetih godina. Učinilo mi se da taj segment povijesti Jugoslavije nije dovoljno tematiziran u kontekstu istraživanja zapadnih izvora zbog nedostupnosti arhivske građe uzrokovane malom vremenskom distancom od problematiziranog razdoblja. Upravo u vrijeme mog doktorskog studija počeli su se otvarati arhivski fondovi za navedeno razdoblje. Međutim, zbog objektivnih problema oko pristupa arhivskom gradivu, iskrsnuli su određeni problemi prilikom pisanja rada. Ti problemi bili bi nerješivi bez pomoći mentora i kolega koji su mi savjetima i uputama uvelike olakšali izradu ove disertacije. Zbog toga želim izraziti zahvalnost svome mentoru prof. dr. sc. Mithadu Kozličiću, komentoru doc. dr. sc. Zlatku Begonji, kolegama izv. prof. dr. sc. Anti Braliću, prof. dr. sc. Mladenu Ančiću, doc. dr. sc. Anti Batoviću i svim ostalim kolegama s Odjela za povijest Sveučilišta u Zadru te svima koji su mi svojim idejama, pitanjima, sugestijama i podrškom pomogli u pisanju disertacije. Na koncu se zahvaljujem svojoj obitelji na neizmjernoj podršci i u teškim trenutcima tokom pisanja ovoga rada, a posebno mojoj supruzi Maji bez koje sigurno ne bih uspio. III 1. Uvodne napomene Primarni cilj ove doktorske disertacije pod naslovom Međunarodni pogledi na krizu u Jugoslaviji 1980.-1987. bit će analiza političkih, društvenih i gospodarskih problema od 1980. do 1987. u SFR Jugoslaviji iz perspektive zapadnih čimbenika. U prvom redu to se odnosi na SAD i Veliku Britaniju kao dvije najistaknutije zemlje zapadnog partnerstva u razdoblju Hladnog rata. Znanstvena literatura koja se bavi socijalističkom Jugoslavijom mnogobrojna je i obrađuje širok spektar problema. Već za postojanja socijalističke Jugoslavije historiografija je obradila mnoge teme vezane za njen nastanak i razvoj. Ipak, postoji problem u ideološkoj obojenosti literature koja je publicirana u zemlji u razdoblju postojanja Jugoslavije, posebno u smislu izravnih intervencija najviših struktura vlasti prema historiografiji.1 Razdoblje koje se obrađuje u disertaciji relativno je slabo obrađeno za vrijeme postojanja
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