The Silver Standard as a Discipline on Money Over-Issuances: The Mechanism of Paper Money in Yuan China Hanhui Guan (School of Economics, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China;
[email protected]) Jie Mao (School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing, 100029, China;
[email protected]) Corresponding with the author: Hanhui Guan. School of Economics, Peking University, No. 5 Yiheyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100871, P. R. China. Email:
[email protected]. Phone (office): +86-10-62753493. The Silver Standard as a Discipline on Money Over-Issuances: The Mechanism of Paper Money in Yuan China Abstract: The Yuan was the first dynasty both in Chinese and world history to use paper money as its sole medium of circulation, and also established the earliest silver standard. This paper explores the impact of paper money in Yuan China. We find that: (1) At the beginning of its regime, due to the strict constraints of the silver standard on money issuances, the value of paper money was stable. (2) Since the middle stage of the dynasty, the central government had to finance fiscal deficits by issuing more paper money, and inflation was thus unavoidable. Our empirical results also demonstrate that fiscal pressure from multiple provincial rebellions was the most important factor driving the government to issue more paper money; however, the emperor’s largesse, which had been viewed as another source of fiscal deficits by most traditional historians, had no significant effect on the over-issuance of paper money. (3) When the monetary standard switched from silver to paper money, the impact of fiscal deficits, which were driving more paper money issuances, became much more severe.