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Pricing Single Malt Whisky a Regression Analysis

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Pricing Single Malt Whisky a Regression Analysis DEGREE PROJECT IN TECHNOLOGY, FIRST CYCLE, 15 CREDITS STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN 2016 Pricing Single Malt Whisky A Regression Analysis SANNE BJARTMAR HYLTA EMMA LUNDQUIST KTH ROYAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING SCIENCES Pricing Single Malt Whisky A Regression Analysis SANNE BJARTMAR HYLTA EMMA LUNDQUIST Degree Project in Applied Mathematics and Industrial Economics (15 credits) Degree Progr. in Industrial Engineering and Management (300 credits) Royal Institute of Technology year 2016 Supervisors at KTH: Thomas Önskog, Jonatan Freilich Examiner: Henrik Hult TRITA-MAT-K 2016:05 ISRN-KTH/MAT/K--16/05--SE Royal Institute of Technology SCI School of Engineering Sciences KTH SCI SE-100 44 Stockholm, Sweden URL: www.kth.se/sci Abstract This thesis examines the factors that affect the price of whisky. Multiple regression analysis is used to model the relationship between the identified covariates that are believed to impact the price of whisky. The optimal marketing strategy for whisky producers in the regions Islay and Camp- beltown are discussed. This analysis is based on the Marketing Mix. Furthermore, a Porter's five forces analysis, focusing on the regions Campeltown and Islay, is exam- ined. Finally the findings are summarised in a marketing strategy recommendation for producers in the regions Campbeltown and Islay. The result from the regression analysis shows that the covariates alcohol content and regions are affecting price the most. The small regions Islay and Campbeltown, with few distilleries, have a strong positive impact on price while whisky from unspecified regions in Scotland have a negative impact on price. The alcohol content has a positive, non-linear, impact on price. The thesis concludes that the positive relationship between alcohol content and price not is due to the the alcohol taxes in Sweden, but that customers are ready to pay more for a whisky with higher alcohol content. In addition, it concludes that small regions with a few distilleries result in a higher price on whisky. The origin and tra- dition of whisky have a significant impact on price and should thus be emphasised in the marketing strategy for these companies. 1 Sammanfattning Denna kandidatuppsats unders¨oker de faktorer som p˚averkar priset p˚awhisky. Mul- tipel regressionsanalys anv¨andsf¨oratt modellera f¨orh˚allandetmellan de identifierade variablerna som tros p˚averka priset p˚awhisky. Vidare diskuteras den optimala marknadsf¨oringsstrategif¨orwhiskyproducenter i re- gionerna Islay och Campbeltown. Analysen baseras p˚aen Marknadsmix-analys f¨or whisky i Skottland. Detta f¨oljsav Porters femkraftsmodell med fokus p˚aregionerna Islay och Campeltown. Slutligen sammanfattas resultaten i en rekommendation av marknadsf¨oringsstrategif¨orproducenter i regionerna Islay och Campbeltown. Resultatet fr˚anregressionsanalysen visar att kovariaterna alkoholhalt och regioner har st¨orstp˚averkan p˚apriset. De sm˚aregionerna Islay och Campbeltown, med f˚adestil- lerier, har en stark positiv inverkan p˚apriset. Whisky fr˚anospecificerade regioner i Skottland har d¨aremoten negativ inverkan. Alkoholhalten har en positiv, icke-linj¨ar inverkan p˚apriset. I kandidatuppsatsen dras slutsatsen att det positiva sambandet mellan alkohol och pris ej kan f¨orklarasav Sveriges alkoholskatt, utan att kunder ¨arredo att betala mer f¨oren whisky med h¨ogrealkoholhalt. Vidare konstateras att sm˚aregioner med f˚ades- tillerier resulterar i ett h¨ogrepris p˚awhisky. Whiskyns ursprung och tradition har en stor inverkan p˚apris och b¨ord¨arf¨or betonas i marknadsf¨oringen. 2 Contents 1 Introduction 6 1.1 Background . 6 1.1.1 Thesis Background . 6 1.1.2 Whisky in Scotland . 6 1.1.3 Single malt whisky production . 7 1.2 Problem definition . 8 1.3 Purpose and aim . 8 2 Mathematical Background 9 2.1 Multiple regression analysis . 9 2.1.1 Description . 9 2.1.2 Ordinary Least Squares . 10 2.2 Assumptions in Ordinary Least Squares method . 10 2.2.1 Homoscedasticity and no multicollinearity . 11 2.2.2 Normally distributed residuals . 11 2.2.3 Strict exogeneity . 11 2.3 Errors . 11 2.3.1 Multicollinearity . 11 2.3.2 Heteroscedasticity . 12 2.3.3 Endogeneity . 13 2.4 Model valuation . 14 2.4.1 Hypothesis testing . 14 2.4.2 t-test and hypothesis testing . 14 2.4.3 R2 ..................................... 15 2.4.4 F-test . 16 2.4.5 BIC - Bayesian information criterion . 16 2.4.6 AIC - Akaike Information criterion . 16 2.4.7 Combining AIC and BIC . 17 3 Method 18 3.1 Data Collection . 18 3.2 Variables . 18 3.2.1 Response Variable . 18 3.2.2 Covariates . 18 3.3 Initial model . 19 4 Results 21 4.1 Initial model . 21 4.2 Initial model validation . 22 3 4.2.1 Residual diagnostics . 22 4.2.2 F-statistic and p-value . 24 4.2.3 R2 and R2 adjusted . 25 4.2.4 VIF-test . 25 4.3 Reducing the model . 25 4.4 Final model . 26 4.5 Final model validation . 27 4.5.1 Residual diagnostics . 27 4.5.2 F-statistic and p-value . 29 4.5.3 R2 and R2 adjusted . 30 4.5.4 VIF-test . 30 5 Discussion and conclusion 31 5.1 Analysis of covariates in the Final model . 31 5.1.1 Alcohol content . 31 5.1.2 Islay . 31 5.1.3 Cambpeltown . 31 5.1.4 Other . 31 5.2 Discussion and conclusion of mathematical model . 32 6 Whisky in Scotland from a marketing perspective 34 6.1 Introduction . 34 6.2 Marketing Mix . 34 6.2.1 Product & Consumer wants and needs . 34 6.2.2 Price & Cost . 35 6.2.3 Promotion & Communication . 35 6.2.4 Distribution & Convenience . 36 6.3 Porter's Five Forces Analysis . 36 6.3.1 Theory . 36 6.3.2 Analysis of Whisky from Islay and Campbeltown . 37 6.4 Recommendation of marketing strategy for producers in Islay and Camp- beltown . 39 7 References 40 4 List of Figures 1 Map over Scotland and its whisky regions . 7 2 Scale Location plot for the Initial Model . 22 3 Residuals versus fitted values for the Initial Model . 23 4 Normal QQ-plot for the Standardized residuals, Initial Model . 24 5 Scale Location plot for the Final Model . 27 6 Residuals versus fitted values for the Final Model . 28 7 Normal QQ-plot for the Standardized residuals, Final Model . 29 8 Porter's Five Forces [14] . 37 List of Tables 1 Table of the response variable and covariates in the initial model . 19 2 Regression results for the initial model . 21 3 Continued, Regression results for the initial model . 21 4 Table of VIF-test values for the covariates in the initial model . 25 5 Covariate data and statistics . 25 6 Regression results for the final model . 26 7 Continued, Regression results for the final model . 26 8 Table of VIF-test values for the covariates in the final model . 30 5 1 Introduction 1.1 Background 1.1.1 Thesis Background Malt whisky has historically been an important spirit with its many classes and types, especially in Scotland. Since the variation in grain, processing, maturation, region of origin and alcohol content is vast, the price of whisky differs significantly. Generally the price of a product reflects its quality and content, but when there are additional factors affecting price, the price model becomes more complex. This is the case for whisky, where it is difficult to derive a whisky bottle's certain price. As whisky is considered to be such a traditional spirit, especially in Scotland, the brands and the distilleries' regions are important for certain consumers. Thus, a whisky's origin has a large impact on price. 1.1.2 Whisky in Scotland Whisky is Scotland's national drink and is made of fermented grain mash. The fermenta- tion together with the distillation and the aging in wooden barrels are the most significant characteristics for different classes of whisky. Various grains such as barley, corn, wheat, buckwheat and rye can be used and they all have a unique, characteristic taste. For single malt whisky, the grain is malted barley, but there are also a number of different barley varieties, resulting in different tastes. [8] In this thesis we will only analyse single malt whisky from Scotland, i.e. malt whisky from one distillery only. Since the thesis aims to analyse the orgin's impact, blended whiskys from several distilleries can not be included. Scotland is divided into following six whisky regions: 1. Lowlands: The most southern region with a light and neutral whisky. 2. Highlands: The most northern and biggest region where the whisky is elegant and tasty with a little sweetness. 3. Speyside: Located in the northeastern corner of Scotland, sometimes part of the Highlands, with a large number of distilleries. The taste of the whisky is sweet, fruity and complex. 4. Islands: Covering the islands in the north west excluding the island Islay. Sometimes considered to be part of the Highlands. The whisky is extremely varied with few similarities, but generally smoky with peaty undertones and marked salinity. 6 5. Islay: Islay is one of the southernmost islands and has nine active distilleries. The whisky is powerful with a smoky, peaty character. 6. Campbeltown: The area around Campbeltown is a historical whisky region with only three distilleries remaining. The characteristics of the whisky include a defined dryness with a pungency, smoke and a solid salinity. [8]. Figure 1: Map over Scotland and its whisky regions 1.1.3 Single malt whisky production The process of making single malt whisky is long and complex. It includes the following processes: 1. Malting: The barley is soaked in water to undergo germination, to convert the starch into soluble sugars. The barley is then dried in a kiln, traditionally with peat used to power it which influences the taste.
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