The Turkey-Syria Military Balance
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Europe For further in-depth coverage go to jiaa.janes.com The Turkey-Syria military balance The influx of Syrian refugees into Turkey has led Ankara to consider military action.Soner Çağapty and Coşkun Ünal assess the military capabilities of Turkey and Syria, and whether a conflict is likely. Navy (TNFC) are stronger and technologically and control of forces in the field. Meanwhile, KEY POINTS superior to their Syrian counterparts. Tur- Syrian radio systems are Russian-made and key’s technical superiority has been further can be jammed by NATO technology. It is pos- ■ Public statements by senior Turkish bolstered through annual large-scale NATO- sible to intercept Syrian military communica- officials have raised the possibility of style military exercises and training, which tion by using NATO airborne early warning Turkish military action against Syria after the Syrian military sorely lacks. If Turkish and control systems (AWACS) if they were the number of Syrian refugees entering intervention in Syria successfully established deployed to help Turkish forces. The Kuwaiti- the country reached 25,000 in April. safe havens to protect civilians, Turkish supe- based GulfSat Communications Corporation riority could prove useful in defending such allocates satellite and communications ser- ■ Ankara has hinted at the possibility areas. vices to the Syrian military. If the Arab League of establishing a buffer zone or safe The TAF’s equipment inventory includes were to implement stricter sanctions against haven inside Syria to defend the civilian M-60 and Leopard tanks, upgraded M-113 ar- the Bashar al-Assad regime, including dis- population and contain the developing moured personnel carriers (APCs), Turkish- ruption of Damascus’ access to such satellite humanitarian crisis on the border. made ACV-300 armoured combat vehicle, technology, it could cut off Kuwaiti-provided satellite-based communications for the Syrian ■ Turkey’s final decision on intervention government. That said, Iran possesses some will be shaped as much by regional ‘Paramilitary forces satellite-jamming capability that Tehran could and global politics, as whether Ankara and anti-tank offer Damascus to use against Ankara. believes it can defeat the Syrian military. Turkish field artillery, self-propelled field weapons could artillery, and multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) appear advanced in range and firing urkey has been at the forefront of in- pose a serious power when compared to similar Syrian weap- ternational efforts to resolve the crisis ons. Turkish tube artillery includes US-made T in Syria and has taken an increasingly threat to Turkish 105 mm, 155 mm, 175 mm and 203 mm how- hostile stance against its one-time ally since itzers, which are all currently deployed to the violence erupted in Syria in March 2011. A ma- troops should they Syria border. Rocket artillery includes Turk- jor reason for this is the destabilising effect of ish-Chinese jointly produced 302 mm rocket the increasing number of Syrian refugees flee- enter any Syrian systems, known as the T-300 Hurricane, with ing the violence and crossing the border into a 100 km range; and other MLRS units, such southern Turkey. Ankara first suggested the cities’ as T-122 Sakarya, with a 40 km range; the US- establishment of humanitarian ‘safe zones’ made M-270, with a 30 km range; and the in northern Syria – protected by either Turk- FNSS Pars armoured vehicles, and M48-A5T2 Turkish-made Toros 230/260 Truck-Mounted ish, NATO or Arab states – in mid-2011 and tanks that were modernised by the weap- Rocket Systems, with a 65-100 km range. the idea has been considered on recurrent oc- ons manufacturer Israel Military Industries Such systems could potentially overwhelm casions since. Notwithstanding the ongoing before the downturn in Turkish-Israeli ties. Syrian ground forces and air defence systems UN-backed peace efforts, the intensification Turkish weaponry matches or outclasses Syr- near the border, although some of the Turk- of the violence in 2012 has again raised the ia’s inventory of T-72, T-62, and T-54-55 tanks, ish-made systems would be tested in battle for spectre of military intervention, with Turkey and BMP-1, BMP-2 and BTR-60/80s in terms the first time. among the most likely contributors or instiga- of firepower and armour capabilities. In contrast, Syria has a number of 122 mm, tors of such an operation. The Turkish Land Forces Command (TLFC) 130 mm, 152 mm and 180 mm howitzer bat- The highly disciplined Turkish Armed Forc- has well-functioning and modern communi- teries along the Aleppo-Latakia-Idlib-Al Bab- es (TAF) is equipped with relatively modern cations systems equivalent to NATO stand- Al Thawrah axis. Most Syrian multiple rocket and upgraded NATO-type weaponry. Mecha- ards. Additionally, the TLFC has three broad- launch (MRL) batteries consist of the Chinese- nised and armoured units, including those cast satellite networks (Turksat 1B, Turksat made T-63, with a 10 km range; Russian-made currently deployed along the Syrian border, 1C and Turksat 3A) with a range that covers BM-21, with a 20 km range; Syrian-Chinese have been modernised and upgraded with the entire Middle East region. This technol- made Khaibar, with a 60 km range; and Ira- thermal optics and advanced fire control sys- ogy could assist in offensive operations, al- nian-made Fajr and Ra’ad MLR systems, with tems. The TAF, Turkish Air Force (TurAF) and lowing closer and more responsive command a 45/100 km range. Possible Syrian artillery jiaa.janes.com May 2012 Jane's Islamic Affairs Analyst | 09 Europe For further in-depth coverage go to jiaa.janes.com deployment in the north includes: 122 mm choose to deploy its special forces within ur- appears likely, especially if Ankara and its al- A-19 or M-30 howitzers, with a 17 km range ban areas, as paramilitary forces and anti-tank lies implement an effective arms blockade of (made in 1949); 122 mm D-30 howitzers, weapons could pose a serious threat to Turk- the country. Syrian vehicles and weapons are with a 15 km range (made in 1950); 130 mm ish troops should they enter any Syrian cities. predominantly of Russian manufacture, while M-46 Field Guns, with a 27 km range (made in Unlike Turkish Special Forces, their Syrian rockets, missile systems and some armoured 1949); 152 mm ML-20 howitzers, with a 17 km counterparts do not appear to have the ability vehicles are provided by Iran and North Korea, range (made in 1939); 180 mm S-23 howitzers, to perform special operations as an integrated meaning their spare parts are not produced in with a 44 km range, currently covering the part of modern warfare, such as infiltrating Syria and are therefore not easily available. Golan Heights and expected to be deployed Turkish lines or conducting direct action and Small-scale production facilities stationed in north in case of a war (made in 1950); and 122 special reconnaissance operations. Similarly, the north and east of Damascus are capable mm 2S-1 Gvozdika Self Propelled, with a 15-22 they do not seem to have the capability to la- of producing T34/D30 122mm self-propelled km range (made in 1960). ser-designate critical targets for the Syrian Air artillery copying 122 mm Russian D-30s, AK- Although the Syrian batteries are older Force or conduct long-range sniper reconnais- 47 and AKM barrels, ammunition, magazines, and have a shorter range than their Turkish sance and sniper assaults against enemy com- springs, 6x6 2.5-tonne military trucks, as well counterparts, Syria has battle tested all of its mand posts or high-value targets. While Tur- as limited amounts of anti-personnel and an- systems. At the same time, while many Syr- key should not underestimate Syrian Special ti-tank mines. However, the Syrian military ian batteries are positioned along the Israeli Forces, it should also consider the possibility is heavily dependent on foreign supplies. As a border, it remains to be seen whether Damas- of this gap in the operational theatre being consequence, Damascus would not be able to cus would be able to deploy them north to the filled by Syria with groups such as the PKK. replenish its military stock without the sup- Turkish border in the event of a conflict. port of Russia, Iran and other countries. The TLFC has significant experience in ‘Due to its military special operations warfare and airborne/air- Turkey’s military vulnerabilities assault operations. Three commando brigades limitations, Turkey The Turkish military’s key weakness is its lack and most of its regular infantry brigades can of urban warfare training. Accordingly, the perform special operations when necessary, a would be likely to TLFC will want to avoid combat within Syr- capability cultivated predominantly through ian cities. Instead, the Turkish military would Turkey’s long fight against the Kurdistan limit the geographic probably focus operations in rural areas, with Workers’ Party (Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan: the goal of establishing safe havens across the PKK). Accordingly, the TLFC specialises in scope of any Turkish-Syrian border. In the unlikely event small-scale operations. This could work to that the TAF is forced into Syrian cities, ci- Turkey’s advantage in a conflict with Syria if intervention on vilian and military casualties are likely to be Ankara’s aim were to capture small sectors high, giving Syria a potentially significant of Syrian territory on which to establish safe Syrian soil’ military leverage over Turkey. havens. Moreover, the Turkish military can Turkey also does not have a vast amount deploy up to 150 Sikorsky UH-60 helicopters Unsubstantiated Turkish media reports in of recent experience in modern conventional on the Syrian border in support of such opera- early 2012 alleged that Damascus had allowed warfare.