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Climate Risk Assessment for Fisheries and Aquaculture Based Adaptation in Myanmar

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Climate Risk Assessment for Fisheries and Aquaculture Based Adaptation in Myanmar ######################################################### Climate risk assessment for fisheries and aquaculture based adaptation in Myanmar Prepared By: Mark Dubois, Kimio Leemans, Michael Akester, Shwu Jiau Teoh, Bethany Smith, Hsu Mon Aung, Tinzar Win Pyae Kyaw, May Hsu Mon Soe & KuMuDara Win Maung Table of Content Introduction............................................................................................................................................. 1 Fisheries in Myanmar: A Brief Overview ............................................................................................ 1 Problem Statement ............................................................................................................................. 2 Overview of the Climate Based Risk Assessment Within Myanmar ................................................. 3 Ayeyarwady Region ......................................................................................................................... 5 Yangon Region ................................................................................................................................. 6 Rakhine State ................................................................................................................................... 7 The 2014 IPCC Risk Assessment Framework ...................................................................................... 8 Methodology .........................................................................................................................................12 Step 1: Contextual Analysis ..............................................................................................................12 Review of Climate Impact Assessments ........................................................................................12 Framework Development ..............................................................................................................12 Step 2: Agenda Setting ......................................................................................................................12 Determining Risk Assessment Priorities ........................................................................................13 Scenario Selection ..........................................................................................................................13 Indicator Selection Process ............................................................................................................13 Multi-Level Stakeholder Consultation Workshops ........................................................................14 Selecting Indicator Variables .........................................................................................................15 Indicating Future Risk ....................................................................................................................15 Step 3: Data Collection and Quality Checks .....................................................................................16 Secondary Data from Government Departments .........................................................................16 Secondary Data from Online Sources ............................................................................................16 Data Compilation and Validity Checks ...........................................................................................17 Step 4: Model Construction ..............................................................................................................17 Data Based Selection of Indicators and Proxy Variables ...............................................................17 Quantification & Normalisation of Indicators ...............................................................................23 Indicator Weighting Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process ...........................................................23 Aggregating Weighted Indicators into Component- & Sub-Indices ..............................................24 Assigning Risk Level Ranks to Model Outputs ...............................................................................25 Results ...................................................................................................................................................26 Cross Sub-Sector Analysis .................................................................................................................26 Intra Sub-Sector Analysis ..................................................................................................................27 Aquaculture Sub-Sector .................................................................................................................27 Inland Fisheries Sub-Sector............................................................................................................31 Coastal Fisheries Sub-Sector ..........................................................................................................35 Discussion ..............................................................................................................................................39 Part 1: Model Limitations & Mitigation Responses .........................................................................39 Data Quality & Availability: Risk Components ...............................................................................39 Data Quality & Availability: Cross Sub-Sector Analysis..................................................................39 Interpretation of Risk Between Townships and States/Regions ...................................................40 Consideration of Natural Disaster Events ......................................................................................40 Assessing Sectoral Risk Levels in Low/No Production Zones ........................................................41 Part 2: Interpreting Model Outputs .................................................................................................42 Interpreting Sub-Sector Model Outputs ........................................................................................42 Interpreting State/Region Model Outputs ....................................................................................43 Part 3: Mechanisms to Reduce Risk .................................................................................................45 Reducing Contextual Vulnerability ................................................................................................45 Increasing Adaptive Capacity .........................................................................................................45 Guiding Integrated Inter-Sector Planning and Policy ....................................................................47 Further Recommendations and concluding remarks ......................................................................48 References .............................................................................................................................................48 Annexes .................................................................................................................................................51 Photos on front cover (Akester, M): 1. Daw Ma Cho, fish collector and fish value addition entrepreneur from Papin Village, Maubin, Ayeyarwady Region with daughter and husband. 2. The Maubin floodplain fishery in the monsoon season. Table of Acronyms ADS – Agricultural Development Strategy AHP – Analytic Hierarchy Process DALMS – Department of Agricultural Land Management and Statistics DDRR – Department of Disaster Risk Reduction DoA – Department of Agriculture DoF – Department of Fisheries DRD – Department of Rural Affairs EWS – Early Warning System GAD – General Administrative Department GFF – Global Environment Facility FAO – Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations FD – Forestry Department GEF – Global Environment Facility GoM – Government of Myanmar IPCC – International Panel on Climate Change IWUMD – Irrigation and Water Utilisation Management Department LDCF – Least Developed Countries Fund LOA – Letter of Agreement NAPA – National Adaptation Plan of Action NPOA – National Plan of Action Executive Summary Myanmar is the second largest country in the Southeast Asia region with an estimated population of 54 million. Rice and fish dominate diets with per capita fish consumption at around 25kg/person/annum. Fisheries and aquaculture are important sub-sectors in Myanmar. According to the Department of Fisheries (DoF) statistics, the total production of fish in 2018 was 5,877,000 MT, of which 54% was from marine fisheries, 21% from open freshwater fisheries, 19% from aquaculture and 6% from leasable freshwater fisheries (DoF, 2019). Including a hidden harvest estimate, total inland fisheries sub-sector landings within Myanmar could be around 1 million MT. This would rank Myanmar’s inland fisheries production in 4th place globally behind China, India and Bangladesh (SOFIA 2020). Myanmar ranks third out of 184 countries most affected by climate change in the last 20 years, (Global Climate Risk Index 2019). The National Disaster Management Committee states in the Myanmar Action Plan on Disaster Risk Reduction (2017) that Myanmar is one of the world’s most disaster-prone countries, exposed to multiple hazards including floods, drought and cyclones. Poverty and poor infrastructure exacerbate its vulnerability to these hazards. To address the challenges
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